The Airline Industry Pauses For The 777X

Since 2004 Boeing has with its 777

• 796 Delivered
• 38 Backloggedged

It also has 326 orders for the 777X

• 53, 777-8X
• 273, 777-9X

This does not include any LOI's or optioned 777X orders on the intent book.

Randy Tinseth, Boeing VP Marketing has observed, “It’s the airplane that will replace the 747-400, ultimately the 747-8, and it is going to replace the A380,” telling reporters on the sidelines of the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines assembly of presidents in Jeju, South Korea on October 19, 2018.

He also commented, “The 777-8 is really about the replacement for the 777-300ER, and we’re not going to see that replacement cycle for that aircraft until we get into the next decade.”

All-in-all, Boeing is timing the market for its 777X and not imposing a whole new type of technology into the marketplace like it did with the 787 families of aircraft. Boeing most definitely is trying for another strategy during the 777X program, by using already paid for and proven technology coming from both the Max and Dreamliner programs. In fact, Boeing is trying to reduce its deferred balance when using 787 costed technology on the ongoing 777X program. The balance acquired when funding a developmental moonshot for its 787 programs was for its whole family of aircraft from the 737 to the unannounced 797. Boeing intends to pare down those deferred costs labeled 787 when it feeds the Max and 777X with proven aviation advancements from those programs. The commonality factor is helping pay for carbon wings and avionics suites Boeing now uses on its products that came from the 787 programs during the years 2006-2012. It is also is developing new technology from each aircraft type made which could be retrofitted onto its other family of aircraft in development or use.

The pause comes for the 777-8x as it only had about 53 orders. Once the airplane concept performs in tests, Boeing sees its established 777 clients pushing 777-8X orders forward in 2022. The market will heat up for that type as many Boeing customers own 777-200ER and 777-300's. They could trade a 20 years old 777 classic in for a 777-8X starting by 2022. When first 777-9X delivery is made in 2020 an airshow will be the event and with would come more 777X orders. It sounds like the London Airshow will make some 777X excitement during that event in 2020.

As remaining 777 backlog remains but is wrapping up as the 777X starts its production run the transition from 777 to 777X is right on time when considering five years ago how Boeing will fill the order book they have just done that. The program capacity will be placed for timely orders going forward as this WB tests out over the next 18 months.

Hub and Spoke vs Free Market

The old hub and spoke model used to dominate the landscape. Briefly, the theory is to bring 1,000's of passengers to a huge hub like LAX and then redistribute its customers on an appropriately sized aircraft to a second location found on a passengers' itinerary. 

LAX Hub And Spoke Commercial Aviation Model


The direct flight model eliminates the hub found in New York, London, or Frankfurt. It can fly from a "second-tier airport "Oslo Norway to Hawaii if a market need is determined. Thus the freedom of destination is not confined to a hub. Airbus was left with only one competitive thought, bigger is better. Boeing went with the better is a better model and it sold almost 1,500 787's by 2019 when counting reliable commitments in the order pit.

It's a two to one market impact over Airbus. The hub is not a panacea for airline travel as the Euro maker was left to hope for, it is better is better open free market only using a hub when efficient, or just flying directly when the market allowed. The Boeing gamble paid off as there was a vast flight market segment untapped until the 787 moved in during 2012. 

Seven years later, the paradigm has shifted away from the A380 and B747's into direct flying into the Caribbean from anywhere. The Carribean was a place the A380 was not allowed due to its immense size. Smaller countries and smaller airlines now have a dog in the fight after buying the 787's in numbers, and it did just that, a new free market emerged without flying indirectly through a conforming hub.

The market saw this opportunity of going anywhere directly rather than having passengers sit for hours in a super hub waiting for a cramped single-aisle flight. 

However, single-aisle have a place as well and it is the main profit maker in the airplane manufacturing business. The market freedom concept has space remaining for new concepts unless counting the emergence of the 797 closes that "gap". 

Hub marketing has a place and is not the total answer. Airbus did not look at the air travel market wisely, it just wanted its pride to reflect what it could build and the A380 is dying an inglorious death. Even though the 1,500 747 production models earned a wonderful title, "Queen of the sky's", the A380 may earn the inglorious "Elefante Blanco" title.

The A-350 is just not good enough and too big for airline sensibility for the passenger buck even though passengers may enjoy the extra 5 inches spread across nine seats and two aisles. Giving the 1/2 inch advantage per item if ever utilized. The 777X is a culmination of this airplane story as it will outdo the A-350 1000, effectively, and put reasoning in boardrooms at a premium.

United Airlines Lines Up Its 787

United's own market strategy shows on its sleeve at a Texas BBQ. The airline bottom line is a 787 fleet. The metaphor spells Boeing equipment. Other airlines may seek a market strategy with a style and substance of mixed fleets. Delta is a good comparison with United Airlines as it uses multiples of Airbus product along with some Boeing sprinkled in. Delta seems to play the market and United seeks a Blue chip investing with Boeing as shown below.

Left to Right United's 787-10, 787-9 and 787-8. Photo Credit: United Airlines

The Boeing approximately recapped*

Airbus Product    170
Boeing Product   600
787 grouping       40
Fleet size           771

Important Boeing consideration is the preponderance of 737 and Boeing widebody in its fleet. Renewal skews towards Boeing product.

Delta:
Airbus Product:  241
Boeing Product: 514
A350 grouping:   11
(other MD)        123
Fleet Size:         878

An important consideration, Delta is in a flexible situation for either Airbus or Boeing fleet renewal it is rumored that Delta would like to be the 797 Launch customer. A truly plausible assumption at this point.

*planespotter data

B-21 Raider, Until The Year 2100

No, It's not 9:00 PM or 2100 hours but the year 2100. The B-21 Raider will fly for the next seventy-five years until the year 2100. Calculating the B-21 will enter its service in the year 2025 makes for a neat estimation of 75 years since the B-52 is counted on for 80 years of service. So the B-21 could be for 75 years of service. Sounds reasonable.

B-21 Raider  front and center as imagined

The B-21 objective currently stands at a 100 unit USAF proposal. If costs are contained and an open architecture remains, then more might be built during the next 30 years. It could amount to 200 units produced by the year 2080 for the Air Force. That's how many it will need replacing its remaining B-52, B1, and B-2 bombers. Of course, the B-21 itself will need replacing from its early flying copies as technology and weapons evolve. The B-21 must learn to live in its initial skin having an ability to insert upgrades and functionality.  The Raider has to become the "new" B-52 without having following on Bomber proposals very 10 years. Doing a Bomber proposal every10 years will "break the US Bank". The Air Force must adapt to one bomber concept and not keep rolling out another we should have done this prototype every so often. It must work within its own skin as well!

The B-21 bomber is perceived as that one bomber and it will not be replaced by at least fifty years unless it morphs with technological progressions. It will reach 200 units built in the long run. 

Open Those Doors will Move That Bus

Ty Pennington used to scream "move that bus", thus revealing the "Extreme  Home Makeover". Now Boeing is about to move that Airbus out of the widebody centerpiece with its own 777X makeover of a 777300ER. The first one that will fly, now has "its GE9X engines hung with care". Good old Saint Nick will approve of that comment. "Dash away, dash away, dash away all!" The 777-8X and 777-9X will begin its dash starting in a few months and well before Christmas 2019. Like going "crazy" is so hard to do when a Boeing is on the flight line. Neil Sedaka props below when breaking up the definitions. Like this is a monumental event when waiting so long. 

This could be called Metaphor Monday or Semile Sunday depending on what day of the week works for you.  Number 1 is the metaphor on Sunday which emblematically uses one thing which strangely represents another thing. Number 2 Monday compares one thing to, "well like", another thing. Above it is your job to find the metaphor and then find the word like as all good teenagers insist on using the word "like" when taking a breath mid-sentence. Is the word "insanity" like the word "normal" only different? Is this just metaphorically speaking?

Move that bus(metaphor) and open those doors(metaphor) like (simile) you mean it. 

777X Showtime Nears

It has been reported by several news outlets the engines have been hung on the 777X like on a Christmas tree in the Everet, Wa. factory.



Dominic Gates says so, so it must be true.

First Flight will light my fire.

flyadeal and Green Africa Is A Strong VOC For Boeing

Boeing has a strong vote of confidence for its Max program when closing its 2018 order book. It remains to be seen if Boeing will add to that total until final sales numbers are posted on its website. Green Africa, as mentioned before prior to this blog, it ordered 50 firm orders and 50 options for the 737 Max and then flyadeal reported its own 30 Max with 20 options.

What this means, Boeing has turned a previous Airbus customer, "flyadeal", into a Boeing customer. This becomes a strong Vote Of Confidence (VOC) for Boeing heading into 2019. The backdrop for these announcements is the Lion Air 737 crash that killed all its 189 passengers. The owner of Lion Air has rebuked Boeing by canceling its order book with the manufacturer. It looks like Boeing has almost replaced those Lion Air outstanding orders since the "accident". More importantly, airlines who are considering a 737 in light of the Lion Air accident are ordering the Boeing single-aisle over an Airbus consideration.

That in itself is a positive signal that Boeing has emphatically beat back any loss of customers in the head to head battle outside of Lion Air's cancelations. Boeing can move past this accident even as the final report on the incident has not yet been published. It appears Boeing has taken corrective actions for mitigating any misunderstandings from lack of sensor situational awareness or how to control a failure under a similar Lion Air mishap scenario it had experienced. 

It appears Lion Air knew of the unairworthy condition and did not seek assistance from Boeing on how to address the problems from its previous Max flights for the same Lion Air aircraft. The lack for Lion Air including Boeing on the perceived fault it had encountered, suggests a failure by only Lion air to include all remedies from its own experienced problem. It has fallen on the sward of its own incompetence.

Boeing cannot assume the responsibility of others when others act in an unprofessional manner which leads to a catastrophic aviation incident. Based on the scant public information reported on this crash it is natural to observe Lion Air cannot make a case when it has not addressed its own professional responsibility when knowing an aircraft had a flight problem beforehand and did not include the manufacturer with this problem as the problem exceeded beyond a mere maintenance issue having great consequences.

The legal battle is to attack any defendant having the deepest pockets and that happens to be Boeing and not Lion Air. But the cause of the problem lies with Lion Air's confusion and its lack of gaining direction from Boeing who had not experienced this type of problem nor could foresee a problem of this nature coming.  

Lion Air made the decision to launch a flight of an unworthy aircraft full of passengers. Boeing is not excused but becomes more of a victim of Lion Air's own incompetence when it did not involve the maker declaring it an unworthy or "unflyable" 737 Max. Judging from reports, it failed to notify Boeing or solicit a resolution to make it a flight worthy aircraft before embarking on its final flight. 

The Lion Air problem is systemic from the top down. The crash could have and should have been prevented if a sound procedural protocol existed and prevented this questioned  737 Max from even flying until all problematic flight conditions were resolved.

Customers who are now signing/firming for 737 Max orders have had time to digest this implication and are now ordering in the face of Lion Air's 737 Max crash that killed all 189 of its passengers. The VOC has made its round trip complete for Boeing with these recent orders.

Lion Air has Failed to "Assume Responsibility Forward To Boeing With This Crash"! In the face of known problems and lack of airworthiness of this one Max aircraft it owned. Lion Air owns this traject mishap.

Counterpoint:

Popular Mechanics Lion Air Summary Report in below link: 

Lion Air Pilots Tried to Override Technical Glitch Before Fatal Crash

Reports Mumble The 777X Will Fly This Spring

Hyperbole is hard to fathom when talking about the GE9X engines. They are huge as in the biggest jet engines in the world. The 7779X is as long as the 747-8i. It will seat up to 425 passengers, a Super Jumbo type with seat numbers. It only has two engines though. Waiting for the big factory door to open before the first flight is an insane task. Who can wait that long? The long trail to flight trials is really long. So seems the race to its first delivery! The job description has shifted from writing about everything under the sun that is new with Boeing aviation to writing new stuff every day about the 777X. It's no easy task, but blathering on and on about no change is an art form.

It is assumed, that I am some kind of typo artist and Boeing is the chosen topic. Roll up the sleeves and write something 777X that hasn't been written. 

Landing gears come to mind but there are more items on the to-do list like 777X cup holders.  777X windows should have a bloggers look-see, but I already have windows 10 on my computer. However, the 777X window will be 15% larger than the 777-300ER windows, but they will be placed at an eye level that reduces slouching when viewing clouds below. The neck is saved for another day. Can we say 737 NG?

However, and furthermore, it will be a wider interior by about a half an inch over the 777-200. That really counts when a focus group discusses 10 abreast seating before coffee and donuts are served for the select members of any focus group. The whole point of the meeting is finding out if jelly filled are preferred over cream-filled before trying to wedge into 10 abreast on a 777X. 

I say, "cream filled"! That is what is worth blogging about regarding the 777X progress as we all wait for that second enormous engine(in this case ginormous) to be hung on the first flying test 7779X. Its first engine is already one and hung. Engineers get paid too, they are figuring out when the second engine can be hung before their 401K expands further before first flight.

The engineers opted for jelly filled because it looks so engineered with this option. The donuts are not day old stuff you usually experience at a focus group. It is really present day fresh because the budget has been set for a long time. This is white-collar work anyways. So its fresh out of the parts bin. Cost over-run? "I don't see no stinking cost over-run!"

The 777X will have space to fit all those tight jeans boarding any flight and that is today's news before its first flight this spring. 

Boeing Appears To Have Beaten Airbus "Order Up"

Yes, Boeing appears to have finally beat Airbus for net 2018 orders. The Boeing numbers anxiously await the end of year recapping of orders when compared to Airbus. It has a 300 plus unit lead at the end of November 2018. It also has announced some timely single-aisle orders in December which could be finalized in December and that finalized number will drive Boeing past Airbus for annual orders. The annual production number is a foregone conclusion thus making Boeing the largest aircraft maker in the world.

The scorecard at the end of November stood at 690 Boeing's units to the Airbus' 380 units. A variance of 310 units. It is unlikely that Airbus will take the order book during 2018. It will be the first Boeing victory in five years if Boeing holds the order lead. Note that it was a sluggish year as talk of trade wars disrupted a normal order year. This would be true for both aircraft makers in this case so it would likely require Airbus to pull more than 300 order rabbits out of its hat for a 2018 win.

Boeing has loaded its order momentum with additional Farnborough LOI's from last year's show not yet booked. Even if Boeing doesn't finalize those scattered orders it is a foot up on Airbus for 2019 orders. Both makers have some outstanding or unconfirmed orders going into the 2019 cycle. If Boeing can beat Airbus orders for two consecutive years it would mean an order trend has flipped in Boeing's favor. Boeing would be keen to win both 2018 and 2019 in an orderly fashion.

However, as always there are some more battles to win going forward and as always a possibility of an Airbus order surprise remaining in the marketplace not yet announced. It is Airbus' nature to stump Boeing by the end of year wire as often found in horse racing. However, it is unlikely it can repeat the 2017 order antics it achieved in 2017 with a massive December Indigo order coop. Boeing may have repositioned its order stance for lucrative several years runs.

Been Doing This For Six Years, Now What"?

"Now what", is a good question? My mind has sufficiently recovered by blogging aviation's articles. Grammar was never my strong suit before my brain injury experience way back on June 1, 2011. This blog found a way for me to express thought and mechanical skills from a keyboard operation and using a computer for resourcing. It has given me an outlet for installing grammar and spell check. It also has given me a window on the technological world of computing and phone interface. In six years the world kept spinning while bringing us closer each day to a human outcome. Flight has been central to the theme of recording humanity's quest for perfecting anything it touches and sometimes with disastrous results.

I don't think another 2018 episode will be written, as I await with everyone, the emergence of 2019. I have noted a decrease in the number of articles written. It stands at about 180 articles on aviation for 2018. Some years have had more and some years less. I can only see a diminishing trend of fewer articles coming forward as my own mind becomes more choosy about what topics to write about.

Since no editors exist in my world. The product becomes a self journal over the topic of Boeing aircraft. If humor shows, it is meant to show because I love dry humor in every article written. The truth is that relative observation for what mankind sees, especially when it comes to Boeing progress, is also Winging Its soul. Boeing hires highly educated people for making the truth come out with a Boeing label put on it.

So far so good, I don't fly anymore due to a general health condition which makes going up in pressurized tubes risky for my well being. That situation does not stop me from dreaming with the eagles soaring.

I hope for every chance a reader enjoys my awkward attempt with writing on a tricky subject. My self-assignment of Boeing was an attempt to write one complete sentence without error on a keyboard. The trouble is I  write thousands of sentences and some of them have errors and others are just fine. Slowing down on aviation is a natural progression like landing. I am on a final approach going 150 knots before landing on runway 2019. In 2012, I was just taking off. The last six years is a journal of one topic, aviation, and Boeing's contribution to that topic. My arch villain is Airbus. It too makes aviation a better place to reside within its inner workings.

My only regret from 2018 is not doing a better job on the aviation topic. My basic joy is writing about aviation. 2019 should be a great year for aircraft flying to and fro.