Boeing Could Now Breach 1,000 Airplane Orders in 2018 with Today's Announcement.

With Nigerian based Green Africa Airways ordering a 50-50 deal with Boeing (purchase -options), and another 30-20 for "flyadeal" of Saudi Arabia, Boeing has poised itself to fend off another furious Airbus late booking surge it usually uses to beat a Boeing order year. In all Boeing and its customers announced a $17.6 billion compiled order swing its way. Airbus will go all in sometime after the first of next year claiming orders for 2018.

Boeing has changed how it tallies its order book. It only announces order book data once a month sometime in the second week of each month. It was a weekly reporting last year. The December order number should come out around January 10, 2018. Airbus' habit is to report its order numbers in the first week of each month. Boeing for 2018, is playing the order game differently this year in hopes of topping Airbus for order bragging rights. 

With another firm 80, and 70 optioned 737 Max aircraft reported today, it would bring Boeing's net order book count to 770 firm orders. Just 230 units shy of 1,000 ordered for 2018. It is within reach if Boeing has several more mega orders in its hip pocket it has been working on.

It's Time To Link To Boeing's Financials

The end of the year is near and sometime in January 2019, you will be able to read how many more billion from the deferred balance sheet Boeing has erased by delivering almost 800 787's. Boeing has delivered 787units all time and 139 units YTD.

Boeing Accounting Considerations Link  Deferred Balance is $23 Billion, A 3qtr number

Boeing Financials

It is interesting to note YoY comparisons from 2017 totals to through 2018 performances as one could derive how much money has been written down for every 787 delivered. A number could be projected for when the deferred balance is extinguished in the 787 programs. That would be a rough number but it would give you a chance to estimate when. Currently, Boeing has delivered 139 of the 787 this year it may end up with 142 delivered. Then after the year closes and fourth quarter numbers for special accounting considerations are factored in for the 2018 period one can estimate how Boeing is doing making the 787 programs financially efficient.  

Boeing's Plain Order Book Could Go North of 1,000 in 2019

Boeing has booked a net of 690 airplane orders without the month of December counted until the first two weeks of 2019 reporting on its website. I would expect that number to come out by January 10, 2019. Therefore, 2019 could include a rapidly expanding order book if it announces the 797 at the Paris Airshow in a mid-summer dream. It could possibly book 400 797 orders alone thus making a 1,000 airplane order book a reasonable projection for Boeing's 2019 count.

The 737 Max program took a jolt when Lion Air crashed its eight-month-old 737-8 Max killing 189. The airline would like to blame Boeing for inadequate information provided on its aircraft having a new system without proper information. However, the jury is still out and it looks more like Lion Air had inadequate personnel from the ground up and it sent an unworthy aircraft to its doom with all people onboard dying. Lion Air has announced it will cancel its outstanding order for the Max program as a reaction to Boeing's position on the matter. No other carrier having the Max has experienced a similar catastrophe and it has not been reported to date that other airlines are having difficulty with its 737 Max aircraft to this extent. I expect more 737 Max orders if no conclusion is reached in the next few months concerning its crash. Lion Air is in trouble on this one and it may not be able to even order more aircraft without stiff financial help or confidence.

Embraer has now entered the Boeing family beyond the handshake level after signing papers and taking $4 billion from Boeing.  It can expand with a Boeing aspiration in 80/20 joint commercial airplane venture. Boeing has essentially bought a highly successful airplane building program for $4 billion and with it comes the engineers it needs to build the 797 sooner rather than later. the 7/80/7/7 venture gives Airbus a jab in the shorts regarding the small end of the airplane market. The Airbus Bombardier could end up being a boat anchor for Airbus as it absorbs the CS300 program. Its program health is sound for a quality Canadian product but very limited in the big scheme of aviation.
things.

Boeing is leasing 58 more/less acres at Paine field under the pretense of more airplane storage needed and a footnote where it could convert some of the space to manufacturing when needed. The lot lays just adjacent to the runway. A similar position found in Renton Washington at the 737 manufacturing plant. It's getting to feel a lot like Christmas for the 797 execs residing in an office building somewhere in Seattle, Wa.

Boeing is becoming a Juggernaut it always pretended to be growing up. 

Still Writing An Internet Book "Skalkaho" Enjoy it ,Will Take You To A Place You haven't Visited.

Here is a link staring with chapter 8.

Skalkaho Chapter 8: A Jungle Pilgrimage

It's up to chapter thirteen in the very rough draft form. You could say it is there and a lot of editing to go but that is phase two of writing. Taking a second crack with improving the storyline. Right now just done getting the story first is the goal. I post this here in Winging It because the most time is spent on aviation blogging. Writing a story is a break from airplanes.

Here other chapters from the beginning were you bookmark the chapters for your own referencing

Introduction To Skalkaho

Skalkaho Chapter 1: Blackleaf Camp

Skalkaho Chapter 2: Skalkaho Attacks

Skalkaho Chapter 3: Otaki Is Running Eagle

Skalkaho Chapter 4: Falling Running Eagle And Skalkaho Join As One

Skalkaho Chapter 5: The Rendezvous Breaks

Skalkaho Chapter 6: High School, 1970 and Vietnam

Skalkaho Chapter 7: Ecc. 3:6 A Time To Search

Skalkaho Chapter 8: A Jungle Pilgrimage

Skalkaho Chapter 9: The Beginning Of The End

SKalakaho Chapter 10: Meet Jeff Danbury

Chapter 11: Bangkok, Land of Plenty

12: Bangkok, A Way Home

13: The Plantation A Flexible Mold

If You Didn't See Newcom Coming Then You Weren't Watching Embraer

Boeing Has finished signing the joint venture project with Embraer were Boeing has an 80% share of Embraer, thus paving a way for the 797 programs as the sweetener. Boeing will combine efforts with the Brazilian aero giant for its unannounced launch of the 797. Expect a Paris airshow announcement with both Boeing and Embraer sharing the Airshow microphone when details will spill out over the show. Latin America will be a big customer for the 797 as Embraer engineers will come North with wifi and people in tow.

The die has been a cast, there is a Boeing NMA, Virginia, and Merry Christmas to boot.

Corporate headquarter will remain in Brazil for the sub 150 seat aircraft and Boeing will move jobs North from Embraer for the making of the 797. Don't lose sleep in Seattle, the 797 is primed for Everett, Wa. at the least. Boeing is counter punching Airbus from its recent acquisition of Bombardier. The air war just got intense on three continents Europe, North America, and South America. Delta Airlines is a big Bombardier customer since it just announced its purchase of small airport aircraft. However, Delta is a big fan of the NMA 797 concept and it may be its launch customer. Delta's business plan will accept both Embraer's and Bombardier's offerings.

An expectation in the industry has been set. Boeing is here to fight for its market with product coming for many corners of the earth. A new Boeing completion center in China has just been completed. Airbus has very little counter punching effect on Boeing at this time. Boeing is really being aggressive after Airbus has stolen the march on Boeing with the A-321 middle of its own market aircraft. Boeing will counter with the 797 hoping to block the Airbus A-330 at the top end of the middle and blocking any A-321's at the low end of the middle. So it will build a 230-270 seat airplane type using additional resources from Embraer but making it a fit for all Boeing aircraft classes. The Embraer type smaller 195 types will fly more like a Boeing layout in time but it will have what people like about the Embraer product.  

Now Financial Markets Are Saying 797

BOEING WILL LAUNCH ITS 797, A PLANE PASSENGERS WILL LOVE, SAY ANALYSTS

AirlinesRatings Photo

Cross section of Boeing’s 7J7 of 1989 is similar to what the 797 will look like

Call me: I'll be in Paris.

Lion Air's 737 Max Crash Hot Potato

Amongst the crash data lies some truth of why Lion Air's new 737 Max-8 crashed killing 189 trusting souls. The tragedy is real but who’s to blame? Or better yet who has the most to lose finding answers? 

Boeing would like Lion Air operational incompetence to headline the investigation. Lion Air would like Boeing to shoulder the blame and customers placing a claim against those with the deepest pockets. So the investigation remains in no-man’s land where Lion Air threatens to cancel its huge order with Boeing with many, many, more Max on the order cancelation line. 

The airplane flew successfully for several months before any indication there was a flaw or mishap was about to happen. It is also known that a prior flight had indicated a problem, but the crew was savvy enough to conduct work-arounds mitigating flight behavior problems before safely landing. Into the shop this 737 Max went. The maintenance crew, who were newly introduced to the advanced 737 replaced a sensor part. The flying crew were not fully aware of the problem or how to do a work-around as the prior crew had managed when it flew into the same behavior of rapid nose down descent as the later flight was directed by software or a system failure went it crashed.

Whose fault was it? That is the big multi-billion dollar question. The answer will come in time and much more time as if time will dilute the impact for either Boeing or Lion Air. By the way, Boeing will offer a further discount to Lion Air before it can cancel its order and Boeing delivers its backlogged order from Lion Air. But blame has to be assigned first and that's what time is for, assigning blame where no one is driven out of business over the loss of 189 passengers. 

The time is 2019, the blame goes to an unprinted a manual update and sloppy maintenance or training for the 737 Max no one else seems to chime in about having any problems. Unless a news report has been missed the Max keeps flying without any indication of a problem Lion Air experienced. The dangerous game is afoot. Assuming it was a one-off mishap, which there is blame to go around to everybody having some kind of consequential impact in the investigation. Lion Air will cancel its threat to cancel its Boeing order. Boeing will give Lion Air further discounts on its order when it pays out to injury family members who lost somebody on that flight. No one wants to go out of business and no one wants not to be compensated and finally no one wants to take the blame.

Let's just say the crashed Lion Air flight problem has been found in many levels throughout the aviation market chain and only the dead cannot feel the pain at this time.  I'm so sorry that, “to error is human" and bad things happen to everyone at some point! The biggest dog in this situation will pay with little fanfare demonstrated. It's a hot potato no one wants to handle.

Exostructure, an Aviation Dream

Building something without adequate support requires an exostructure for its existence. Much like the crab that has an exoskeleton wrapping its inerds with a hard exterior, a commercial  airplane must also also have a hardshell around it in order to survive. Boeing has just announced it will make available a 777X BBJ without a market. It lacks a exostructure or a true market or an order for it to exist. Therefore orders represent an "Exostructure".

Part of the Exo support is airports capable of landing this behemoth. The folding wings is a clue. The Exostructure are found in the wings in this case. The 777X BBJ can land at any selfrespecting larger airport. It hasn't been shown how short of a runway it can land on. That will be found out in testing during 2019. The timing may be right as the  US could be considering an Airforce-1 may be a 777X BBJ modified for presidential use. 

However, potential, is that softshell mebrane that wraps an idea in its infancy. That's what Boeing has with its 777X BBJ concept just launched. Any national president or Bill Gates type can order one for $3/4 of a billion with upgrades included. The hardshell is that "exo order" allows the jet to live. The 777X BBJ gestation period is not defined as long as Boeing builds the 777-8X or 777-9X.  An analyst will quip, "that's alot of oil pumped out of a lot sand. Let's go pound some sand"!

Boeing believes it has an exostructure to support a 777X BBJ. It may come by it with a half dozen orders. Super states are the likely suspects along with an oil kingdom in the mix. Boeing wouldn't launch an idea without some softshell interest. Having that thought, it bears consideration, who that might be. The the question arises, four engine security over two engine efficiency. Let's face it, any self-respecting super-power can stuff the frame with all the latest communication and counter measures. The 777X BBJ would have room for file cabinets but a thumb drive would work in someones pocket as a terabyte pretty much fits within anywhere under the size of a coffee table coaster.

A four engine consideration burns more fuel and can go pretty far. A two engine GE9X engine will take anyone to the other side of the world while going East or West and then landing at the same location. Possibly the US has reconsidered the 747-8i AF1 order with a 777-8X workup. It wouldn't surprise me if it takes another 3 years before a first delivery of the presidential 747-8i ("AF1") or a 777X BBJ is in the works. A new president could mean a new order in a deal making venture with Boeing. After-all if it is good enough for the president of the US, then its good enough for a Chinese trade mission. Enough two engine excursions around the world has proven two engines are as safe as four engines. In most cases better than four engines unless there is some sort catestrophic mishap were both types would not have survived.

A 777X BBJ can just sit and wait for a "EXO" order to hold this program together a little while longer.





   

777X Powers ON

Or as Aero Space Testing puts it,

"Boeing powers up first 777x test aircraft"

So goes the march towards its first flight. The 777X has become one gigantic poker hand for potential customers. In that some are holding its hand before making a play for ordering the giant. Will more 777X orders come forward for Boeing? Boeing thinks so, but to be perfectly clear, Boeing is depending more on "Seattle's Best Coffee" then a new 777X order at this time. It is nervous until this thing flies and bragging will continue making airlines flinch once more with a business plan for a jet holding 400+ passengers flying 7,600 miles. Could it go farther? Ah, yeah, but the airline would have to toss some passengers and its luggage for more fuel loaded, but the 777-8X may have already done that for the customer with its 350" seat configuration. Even if Boeing sends out a 290 seat aircraft it would approach 9,000 miles of travel comfortably and Qantas is ready to Punch on its Project Sunrise as soon as Boeing comes back after first test flight and says this beast is a modern marvel it can do better than what was promised!

"Power on", is a step in that scenario. Below is the 777-9X airframe thousands of hours before a push out for the cameras and Boeing employees crowding around the airframe on a clear sunny  Everett, Wa day in about sixty days. That's right, only 1,440 hours for Ave Geeks to fix their computers for the big roll-out ceremony having a cheesing Boeing PR person speaking about how many things were accomplished to make this roll-out possible. 

Courtesy of Aero Space Testing Published Photo of its Author

The power on step shown above, is to light up all electrical systems found on the aircraft as if an engine were hung on the wing and supplying its power. Do all the electrical components work as entended? This won't be the last  time Boeing will light-up. Every time something is added, even the paint. an eltrical power on test will occur. The 777X won't fly until everything works and works over and over again. Power cycling this airplane is much like your home computer. Every time it power cycles it resets electronics or it confirms the wiring remains solid as intended. The first power-on checks for smoke, fire and burnoutof everything electrical as that is a common step for all new 777-300ER's coming off the production line. However, this a completly new design and the this airplane requires the power tests that are analysed and recorded for further study. Once those checks are completed it may fly.

In the mean time, other activitie from now until the middle of Frebruary 2019, Boeing will install the enterior components including work stations and corresponding testing equipment and its corresponding seats. First flight is for systems checks and over-all flight characteristics before the road of daily flying occurs for its year long testing period. Sixty days is not far off.  

Data Fusion The F-35's Real Weapon.

ALIS was the big data kid on the block, Then there was mission data and finally adversarial data. Eventually, the repetition of take-offs and landings using military weapon loads had to be factored in. 

A system in secret was developed called " C-3". This fusion of data had to tell the F-35 program players what part and what mission the F-35 is assigned. Defense One covers this topic. C-3 is programming for AI and predictive modeling well beyond a visual examination or situational awareness. Whether looking at a part or going against the unknown, it is framed in the architecture of C-3. It can and will tell the humans surrounding the F-35 its next move before it flies. Normally it takes months or even a year to render a solution from data for everything from bolts to washers. Now the C-3 company says it can do in a month instead of months. The ultimate goal would be under 24 hours in a conflict. It's a matter of time for this to happen.

• BY PATRICK TUCKERTECHNOLOGY EDITOR

 California company is looking to accelerate the Defense Department’s embrace of artificial intelligence, starting with some of its most important aircraft.

C-3 will or could predict what part is ready for change out or what missile should be loaded for a mission, depending on what the predictive C-3 modeling reveals. It is simply the added value of the flying F-35 computer. In a perfect F-35 world it seeks optimal solutions for real-time battle situation heading the F-35 in a direction on the ground as well as in the air for optimal results.

The example is a mission assignment going to "X" and taking out target "Y" with the most proficient "Z" fully operational. The Lightning II is about to be militarized with the C-3 signature of supercomputing on-board or located from somewhere in California in a big "underground" building. The F-35  gives the F-35, oversight, for its every move from a computer to the team who will support its mission and further. It is too secret for this kid to know.

Simply put, it's smarter than a fifth grader type of execution. The adversary cannot predict what will happen when its trigger is pulled and the F-35 responds. The C-3 system moves the goals post as weapons are changed or become available while internalizing F-35 capability against adversarial systems and placements. A strike comes with an "I didn't see that coming" outcome. The fighter pilot climbs in and responds with its resources for the F-35 and its supporting players.