Disrupt: The 2018 Aviation Word Of The Year

Often it has been stated during 2018 a new airplane model or business plan will disrupt the market. The play word "disrupt" is often used in aviation journals as if somehow it will bring readers to an understanding of that word in the aviation world. The verb tense begins with its variation which becomes disruptive in itself.

Disrupt:

Interrupt (an event, activity, or process) by causing a disturbance or problem.

"a rail strike that could disrupt both passenger and freight service"

synonyms: throw into confusion, throw into disorder, throw into disarray, cause confusion/turmoil in, play havoc with; Disruptive Technology-Aviation: In business, a Disruptive innovation is an innovation that creates a new market and value network and eventually disrupts an existing market and value network, displacing established market-leading firms, products, and alliances.  The 2018 Aviation Word of the year is... "Disruptive"

From the 787 to the A-350ULR, airplane makers are trying its best to be disruptive. The airline customer is also disruptive by employing those makers innovations and technologies within the customer's marketplace. Before the 777X even flies, it hopes to disrupt the A-380 and the A-350ULR out of the Airbus production line. At this time it remains to the 787 and 777-300ER for disrupting the Airbus line of aircraft. The futuristic 797 proposal hopes to disrupt the A-321. The Max hopes to disrupt the A320NEO and so forth.

Airlines hope to disrupt other airlines with innovative routes and destination pairings. Airlines will use whatever means available for conquering the market. Even Singapore will fly its newly delivered A-350ULR  9,000 miles in a market disruption movement. Having only 162 passengers on board any of its ULR flights for 19 hours is a tough payday. Other airlines may counter with a one-stop offering by stopping over at a glamorous setting for anything over 14 hours in the air. It may even pay for the customer's room and ground transportation within the stop-over confines. However it is presented, the goal is to become disruptive to its competition.

The Concurrent F-35 Evolves

Doublespeak is an Orwellian concept. Say one thing means another. Doublespeak!.  The F-35 was pronounced with the word concurrency. It's a process word. The F-35 will be started on the assembly line only to be fixed on the flight line. It's no way to fight a war. The second word more fitting and applicable to all former 4th generation fighters is "evolution". The F-35 has evolved out of F-35 concurrency process. The F-35 electronics suite can be dumped into a formidable air superiority fighter, called the F-15. Which can fly faster and outmaneuver most of any adversarial found in the world. The F-35 concurrency has become a secret weapon of fourth generation fighters.



Evolution is what the F-35 is undergoing at this time. Its countless problems solved during its development have opened up an American technological playbook. The F-35 already flies behind others without being seen. It just needs longer-range missiles. It needs satellite intel from space during a mission. The ultimate high ground is space, where airplanes don't want to go. The F-35 is evolving because of what it can do well. Within ten years a Su-57 or a Chinese J-20 could enter the F-35 airspace undetected out its own technological evolution. The satellite can put a target into an F-35 defense system. The F-35 reports to all its assets and chooses a laser deployment from somewhere and poof the adversary is no longer an item within the system's detection. It fights without a dogfight, The F-35 has evolved. That was the defense department, DARPA's dream, for the fighter. Concurrency, it's just a diversion for anyone foolish enough to spy upon it.

Stop thinking dogfight and start thinking system superiority fighter. The F-35 has become an air superiority weapon without turning 9G's, only constantly evolving and is concurrently updated.

American Airlines Validates Before Buying

Watching the firm order books of an airline tells the story of its heart. American has 89 787 ordered and 35 of its types delivered according to Allthings787 website coming from its charts. Counting the 22 787-8's, American firmly claims it is buying 25 more 787-9's for its fleet of wide-body. United likes what it already has and it needs a fleet renewal process including replacing A-330's, 767's, and 777-200's.

American already has 35 787's in its fleet and now has 54 more 787's in a delivery backlog when including the 22 787-8 and 25 787-9's it just ordered. The analysis of this order is a Winging It attempt of making market sense out of this order:

·      It' fleet replacement only

·      It's staying with what works best for American after thousands of hours of service

·      It's about fleet and ground efficiencies, hence fleet commonality

American should not look at the 777X or 787-10 until the 777X goes to market and there are more than only four 787-10's in service with Singapore Airlines. American is risk adverse but pro-Boeing. It gave Boeing a "solid" with this order and Boeing knows the message was received. After about 20 787-10's have flown several years and the 777X starts demolishing the A-380 market, American may step up and replace its 777 fleets with the new 777X variants. It could go for a 777-8/777-9 by 2030 after its market performances are measured and evaluated. American is that risk adverse so no new Boeing aircraft hence it administered a time deferral on its 40 single-aisle it had ordered from Boeing.

Southwest Airlines fleet of 737 Max may push American Airlines into a decision if the Max delivers its promise after a few years. It's well on track for making a market splash with dependability and performance. The biggest problem for American is ordering after Boeing builds a massive backlog of all its types American desires. The recent American order for 47 787's may have secured an American place in the production line no matter what and when it makes future orders.

The risk adverse American Airlines rears its head in the case of new airplane types ordered. Using this premise for American Airline's caution for new aircraft types, the 797 would be a 2030+ type of order and not a launch customer type of risk taker. United and Delta are Northern Hemisphere risk takers making them having 797 launch customer potential with Boeing.

The A-380 Looks Over Its Shoulder At The 747?

In real estate or business, timing is everything. The A-380 came to market out of pride and not from any common sense. It could seat 550 plus paying customers at a time as if it was a convention load of party goers. However, conventional wisdom says there are only so many conventions? The "we will build it when you come" airport authority is flummoxed over the concrete and asphalt costs imposed by contractors who need to fill the swampland the airport needs for an A-380. Boeing went with "If the shoe fits wear it" motto, hence the 777X folding wing appears with copyrights and all.

The A-380 arrived twenty years too early and the 777X is coming with its widebody market mop bucket. Airbus spent money and it shows. Nice airshow, Airbus, I really like watching tonnage fly over the hot dog stand at the show.

The metrics are in. Two 777X's can fly more profits than one A-380 could. The Boeing 777X can get off the ground from any existing airport configured for the current 777-300ER. It will go in two different directions at a 700 passenger clip, which is more than an A-380 can do in one desert landing and it will also use less fuel while selling way more revenue tickets. 

"Pride cometh before the fall", as Airbus begs for more A-380 sales, Emirates comes forward and buys 36 at a fire sale price. Airbus can now build 36 more A-380's since Emirates penned an order in early 2018. If Airbus drops production to 6 a year it can build 108 backlogged units over 18 years before shuttering its A-380 program.



In 18 Years the 777X will be cranking up its order book to 1000 units or more and will be delivering about 60 a year. A two for one airplane option for commercial airlines will entice the market with more orders once the last 777-300ER and first 777X is delivered in no particular order. This little nuance goes noticed by stockholders.

Airline Report Photo

The DDG 1000 Becomes A Prototypical Hole In The Water

Laughter could sink a rowboat:

The money pit goes to sea as in the USS Zumwalt. It's all holster and no gun. It's as effective as a knife in a gunfight. The hull, at least slices through the water like a knife and fights like a ship no bigger than a fishing boat, or as some have some said of its radar profile. On the "Three Amigos", it was said, "I don't see no stinking railgun". Nor does it have a punch of a 5" shell going 67 miles because the round goes for $800,000 a shot. That's the same price of a one bedroom condo in the bay area of California. Therefore, no gun for the ship's holster. It can sneak up on other ships, well maybe it can after ten years of adversarial radar standards upgrading, but it can find an armed fishing boat.

The DDG 51 series was resurrected and now it faces an end of its build run as it approaches Block III DDG 120, making a Naval bookmarker for the Arleigh-Burke class destroyer program. The three-ship naval blockade of the Zumwalts will pour more money into that hole found in the ocean than the Titanic could even hold in its sunken mass. More trees are cut down each year in the Amazon jungle for making US currency while paying for Zumwalt's prototypical mishaps. The demise of the paper-making Amazon forest may destroy the breathable atmosphere and become one of the Zumwalt's biggest secret weapon.

The biggest Zumwalt mishap to date is letting too many Naval experts into the same room during the Zumwalt's planning phase. Whatever happened to good ole American garage know how? Now I'm worried that if some off-the-shelf drone could lead a cruise missile into its $8 Billion hull.

Zumwalt is surrounded by Fishing Boats it missed in the fog

United Airline Board Ponders Winging IT Suggests

United's board is engaged in a decision-making round of fleet renewal proposals with possibly a decision coming in a direction for future airplane purchases. Winging It considers the board is seeking a one-maker fleet for simplification even though United mentioned all makers are on the table for its fleet replacement.

Plane Spotters/United Detail Order Column A Winging It Proposal

The chart reflects an order column with possible fleet renewals from a “Winging It's” perspective totaling 690 units from single-aisle to Wide Body class of commercial aircraft. The suggested total is from a class to class replacement model using Boeing aircraft only for a one fleet type replacement. Of course, there will be many adjusting factors as United fine-tunes its fleet according to its own needs. This chart illustrates what Boeing is facing in an Airbus dual. The order potential would be placed over 10 years with firm orders and LOI's pacing the fleet building process as United moves with all new airplanes it desperately needs. The Plane Spotter data is just a starting point and it assumes United will not seek a split of either the Airbus or Boeing offering.

Airbus says, "Boeing suffered little real damage"

The WTO says, "Airbus fixed the system and hurt Boeing."

Carl Sandburg Said,

“If the facts are against you, argue the law. If the law is against you, argue the facts. If the law and the facts are against you, pound the table and yell like hell”

Airbus says, "yell like hell!" (Airbus also says, "Boeing suffered little real damage") 

70 Isn't A Lonely Number, Its Invisible

On your 20th birthday, it should be called, "the Oyster birthday", you are the peril. At age 30 people see the 20-year-old in you with an extremely attractive view. At 40 this former 20 something turns leader and everyone admires this rendition of a  20 marvel as the head widget maker. Then come to the 50th B-day and the touch of grey hits this former twenty-year-old head, don't get sacked. Even the 30 somethings marvel at a 50-master- looks, making any other 20-year-old look childish. 

At 65, the scary thing becomes almost complete invisibility just over the hill. No one notices you or can identify that 20-year-old in the mirror who once dominated the cultural scene. In a few short years, 70 appears and poof you are invisible and no one notices. The twenty-year-old no longer exists and the 70-year-old is finally free of a value system built on specific age-related looks. Being 70 allows you to stand at the back of the room and hand out programs at an event attended by 30-40-year-olds who know so much and dress so nice. Another "70 something" approaches the back wall and nods with a wry smile as if saying "we are free and no one cares because our old looks have made us invisible"! An old Holywood poster shows a  young budding star and then on The Today Show, a guest appears. Who is that same starlet from fifty years ago? The teenager racing to high school notices the guest on TV and smugly remarks, "whose that old bag"? 

Invisibility has hit the former twenty-year-old rising star, aka "old-bag" on the Today Show. It's good to be invisible, you can do so much and no one notices! Three score and ten is the prize, You are invisible now conquer the world.

Remember John Leahy, The Airbus Marketing Guru

Well, a course correction has occurred for Airbus fortunes. It is facing a North America trifecta with American, United, and Delta airlines. The first shoe dropped when American Airline ordered 47 widebody 787's last month leaving Airbus the bridesmaid once again. Airbus lost to Boeing in Hawaii when its main airline on the island switch from A330 to 10 787's on its order book. 

United will have a plethora of fleet slots when it retires its last 767's numbering about 50 and Airbus once again is in a position of being slighted by those pesky Yankees. The term, "once again", pops up in this blog too many times.

John Leahy an American born business personality kept Boeing at bay for many years, while leading Airbus' most noted programs evolving in the marketplace. He was the Airbus tip of the market spear and has since retired, as all good people born in 1950 have probably done so by now. He loved to jab his spear in Boeing's side at an airshow as he sandbagged order announcements, and then announcing after Boeing would make a significant announcement. He also held customer orders in confidence until Boeing announced its final booked order for the year, then Airbus ends the year with a mass Leahy order, making it the top dog for the year. All these maneuvers agitated Boeing and made them look "secondarily" number two(hah). 

It worked as the Airbus single-aisle order book soared to new heights. He forced Boeing to bring on the Max. Boeing got the Leahy message and bracketed the Airbus widebody market with three 787's and two 777X types. It now looks as if it will roll out its stepchild, the 797.

At the top, it was mentioned a trifecta and Delta completes the North American sweeping out of Airbus from Boeing's door. The 797 will make Delta whole again with North America's patriots when becoming Boeing's North American launch customer for its type. United Airlines will order Boeing 787 over Airbus as it replaces its old portion of the fleet of 767's.

John Leahy's retirement ended the Airbus market run and sealed its corporate profit doom for the time being. The NW, MW or SE airplane "top dog" is already making headway in just a few months since Leahy takes his Syracuse MBA home again. Airbus lost its dog in the fight. It is now facing the NMA without an adequate plan. The A321NEO is not positioned to both take on the single-aisle and the dual aisle Boeing onslaught at the same time. It must come up with its plan "B" with another John Leahy NEO type it hasn't found. Boeing will go North of 100, 787's ordered this year, while Airbus will have a negligible widebody order book report at year's end unless Airbus pulls one more fast one with a December mega order announcement.

John Leahy saw the writing on the wall, he was 68 and Airbus was boxed in without the means for an immediate answer for Boeing's airplane designs. However, his golden parachute is floating just fine.

Why Delta Makes Sense For 797 Launch Customer

It has been an irritation to Boeing that Delta orders Airbus widebody A-350's and A-330's. Boeing also suffered a cancellation from Delta for long-held 787-8 order thus sending a second shot over Boeing's bow a second time. Boeing is not a Delta stepchild it merely did not line up with Delta's leveraging plans and struct the best value deal with Airbus using Boeing as a backdrop for low balling Airbus.

Here come the 797 and things are becoming a serious matter for Boeing. Delta has no Airbus player in place for this much-needed class of airplane and Boeing is going to offer an NMA solution soon. Delta has lost its leverage over Boeing when using Airbus for pricing value. Only a new offering and launch customer status could give Delta some bargaining chips on the table and that is why the Boeing NMA will have a North American NMA launch customer with Delta Airlines. Further examination of Delta's fleet and order book suggests the Boeing NMA will slide in neatly with the current  Delta fleet. An Authorization to Offer (ATO) is pending

CAPA Photo chart for Delta Airline fleet Type by Model/Maker 

The Delta Gap is found with its older 757 and 767 models which it has 219 Boeing frames on the flight line, and is a natural slot for the 797 model. Airbus has 100 A321 represented in Delta's backlog and has deferred 10 of its A-350 backlog a smidgeon until  2019 and 2020 delivery slots.

Delta has 41 Airbus widebody and it could defer some of its A-321 order books once Boeing's NMA issue is solved. A suspicion is Boeing and Delta are collaborating on an NMA  design as a Delta ordering sweetener. The two big launch customers are each coming from Asia and North America. Delta has over two hundred frames open for an NMA slot and a reduction of the A321 backlog by 25% is not inconceivable. An order for 200 NMA's and 100 options from Delta is a real possibility. A launch customer announcement would disrupt both American's and United's flight plans.

The entry into Service date having an ATO in 2018 would place the initial NMA's batch into customer's hands by 2026, at the earliest. A second suspicion is Boeing is further along with the NMA program process than what is assumed by all aviation insiders at this time. The design is almost off the CAD board and customers are tentatively lined up where it is known what Boeing proposes is a firm concept. The process has progressed to a promising stage, "if you do this we'll do this", status. The big hold up is the institutional phase of build capacity, supplier commitments, and most of all the engine program stage. Does Boeing have a workable engine from its group of suppliers? Other hold-ups are also institutional in manner referring to financing, and cash flows before announcing. Can Boeing avoid a 787 deferred costs debacle it had with the 787 program?

All-in-all, Boeing is very busy crossing the T's and dotting the "I's" for this ATO. Every day a check item is completed and launch customers are informed if any program checks alter the original design offering since the customer verbally or by memo agreed with the original concept proposal. The normal but stressful business stuff is happening at an ever-increasing pace culminating with an all-in shout out from Boeing, usually happening at a big airshow.