Has The 787 Reached The Doldrums In 2016?

If considering all the 787 news in a composite picture the view would indeed make the 787 program seem like it has turned into a sedate like stupor from lack of August production and a lack of sales in a worldwide market place. Only nine 787's are expected from Boeing in August after a robust back to back production numbers of 14 in each of the months June and July.

Orders for the 787 seem to be stagnant and somewhat questionable going forward this fall, signaling a slow year for the 787 sales. Those hoping for a 787 demise such as Airbus may suffer a real disappointment in 2016, as both its production and sales for its A350 become a mere shadow of Boeing's ultimate number for 2016.

Boeing has booked a nominal "net" nineteen 787 for 2016 and incredibly this summer has been a hot summer while thrust reversing are questionable for its 787 engines. The summer continues on heating up while 787 sales languish.

Now the other side of the coin suggests a percolation of sales are about to bubble up and the new issues are just the culmination of a mature program, for which can never shake those types of questions going forward. The program's flight cycles and flying conditions will reveal any issues as time goes forward, while the Boeing data system documents the 787 and the operational end of the puzzle has a built in safety net where systems redundancy, preventive measures, and lessons learned mitigates any harm before a problematic outcome can ever be reached.

Hence the summer doldrums are reached while the 787-10 production footprint is established in Charleston, SC. Then the Everett,WA plant takes the brunt of Boeing's August wide body production capacity for the 787, resulting in the paltry nine 787's expected for delivery during the month.

There are rumors of sales announcements or pending customer approvals while those customers reaches its decisions. If all things are considered it will make the Boeing company the ultimate winner for the 2016 order book totals over its rival, Airbus.

Somebody is going to win an order for 100 wide bodies.  China is not done ordering yet in 2016. There are always the long term customer's who have historically ordered Boeing aircraft, but they have not positioned themselves for pulling the the order trigger. Counting all these suppositions, one could make the air framer a very good year and with only four more months in 2016 to go.

Forecaster look at long range averages and standard deviation factors assigned by seasonality indicators, and then coming up with how many aircraft are needed in a given year, without acknowledging this doldrum period currently in play. It only looks at the overarching data. By combining the rumors and projections together, Boeing has made it to a position of wide body domination and becoming the leading edge in the aviation world.  It may sell its production number in 2016 which is a truly achievable goal.  

Although Boeing has to reach the doldrums at this time in order to meet its goals for the 787-10 production, and then trim its back-log back while not pushing for sales announcements, therefore it allows for customer satisfaction while it places orders its new 787's during the fall of 2016.  

What's Up With 2016 787 Deliveries.

This report is a status concerning deliveries for Boeing's 787 during 2016. Boeing has delivered YTD Eighty -Seven 787 to its customers. This represent about 12.4 787's average delivery a month over seven months. Using the "All Things 787" data from the delivery column from August 1, 2016 through December 31, 2016 interpolates outward with a 140, 787 number. Boeing has scheduled for delivery, fifty-three more 787's for the remainder of this year. This may result in a 11.66 average per month for the year. Boeing may surprise and push additional 787 through during December as they have done in the past years.

A total of one hundred and forty 787's are derived from those scheduled in the queue to be delivered and the 87 already delivered eclipsing the one-hundred and Thirty-eight 787's predicted earlier.

Boeing should reach 140 aircraft of this type delivered, pending customer acceptance during 2016. If it does accomplishment this effort, then Boeing can count its cash potential for wide body transaction for the year as a fairly accurate value.

F-35 IOC What It Means

The F-35 is combat ready for certain applications but not all application found within the War Fighters capable constructs at this time.

Looking from the front line fighters at hill Airbase Utah, or representing this first wing in the nation as "War Capable", come with strings attached with current capability.

Capability Items:

·      Can it go to war and deliver? Yes.

·      It useful in any military operation? Yes.

·      Can it beat adversarial combatants in dog fights at this point in its development? Possibly and maybe?

·      Will it beat adversarial combatants without any conditional limits going forward? Yes It Will.

·      Does it do everything Lockheed originally promised during the construction process? NO!

·      Will it eventually achieve an Air Superiority profile during this concurrent period it has just entered? Yes it will gain the Air Superiority Profile against all adversaries currently in its respective works-in-process!

·      What phase is the F-35 IOC? Phase one, with a new phase added every 24 months with updates, armament and pilot learning curve, as each added capability is applied.

The complainers’ corner:

·      The ejection seat could cause death before this check list item was fixed since last year’s failure announcement!

·      Block 3i is not block 3F and that will come by 2020.

·      Wasn't there an engine fire?

·      The computers did shut down during flight.

·      The F-16 beats the F-35 version 2B whose systems were restricted during testing.

·      It doesn't dog fight as well as 4th generation fighters.

·      The F-35 was not built for dog fighting.

·      Are all weapons systems are not available for the F-35 at this Current time. Yes, complainers are correct.

Having presented a few notes found in the press reports, it is clear that the F-35 coming out of only a Phase I or called IOC, which is a sound foundation for adding all additional promised capabilities, as it will gradually become Superior once pilots figure out its matured capability, which happens to be phase II for the F-35. How can we use the superior sensors interlocking with flying groups combating both land, air, and missile defense systems unless Phase II is accomplished? 

The sum of all its flying parts is far superior to a fourth generation fighters capabilities. Those parts are just now being applied within the air frame where pilots must learn how to use the compliment of its systems available. Dog fighting is like the 10^th century jousting of knights with armor, after which the F-35 goes forward into the 21^st century with having the pleasure of shooting down that knight before it even knows the F-35 is even within a hundred miles distance. A new era has arrive where rules of engagement are being rewritten after each F-35 reaches an Airbase near your home. What has to be learned with the F-35 supersedes its current capability, and all outlooks from those flying them remain awesome within current aviators’ comments.

July Closes: Boeing with Dream Production Lines at 14 a Month Pace

July 2016 closes with a strong 787 production performance as the 787 has reach the eighty-second 787 delivered for 2016 by July's end. Boeing is exceeding guidance of Twelve 787 a month as announced earlier in the year for its benchmark during 2016. However, this footrace is leaving Airbus in the dust as it will take three more years before it can even approach the Boeing 787 production pace, at which time Boeing should have already announced a fourteen a month pace for 2017. 

This amounts to approximately 144 dream-liners a year pace (12/mo) for 2016 and another 168 dream-liners (14/mo) during the year in 2017. This does not account for months needed when producing a lower monthly number during a production ramp up. 

The year 2016 will come in under 144 units and is expected to deliver about 138 Dream-Liners this year because of the ramp-up period under produces stated goals of 12 a month. 

Eighty-two YTD Dreamliners is Key Number Below: The 1173 787's ordered is an unconfirmed number, but from press reports this is the number that should be the total orders when Boeing confirms all transactions.

The 787-8 has significantly lower numbers produced each month than the 787-9 during this last quarter. About 71% of the 787-8 ordered have already been delivered, where 23% of the 787-9 have been delivered against what has been ordered. The delivery number per month by percentage reverses in that about out of fourteen 787 delivered in a month totaling 70% are 787-9's and less than 30% total 787-8's delivered each period. 

In ninety days Boeing has delivered twelve 787-8's and thirty 787-9's with a ratio of 28% 787-8's, and 71% 787-9's while analyzing its ninety day total from forty-two 787 Dream Liners delivered. This pace alone if projected out to 12 months would equal an annual pace of 168 Dreamliners a year.

The F-35 Climbs The Hill In Utah

There's Eglin in Florida for the F-35A and Yuma with the F-35B for the Marines. But not least on the list is the real star found with the F-35 program, Hill AFB Utah. What's the difference between the Patuxent River Naval Air Station in Maryland for the Navy and Hill AFB in Utah,­­­­­ and what's the deal about Hill and its F-35A's? First and foremost Patuxent is a formal training and testing center for domestic and foreign participants in the F-35 development program.

and then...

Here is the: Hill AFB F-35 military only scorecard below:

• 15 F-35's on location
• 12 F-35's ready for IOC
• 21 F-35 Pilots flying daily
• 488 F-35 sorties completed (probably higher @ posting).
• 220 F-35 Maintainers (cream of the crop handpicked personnel)
• 88 consecutive real-time field sorties
• 15 out 16 field Bomb successes with one faulty bomb failure.
• Undefeated in the air to airfield combat tests.

What does this all mean? The F-35 is better than what naysayers can muster against its viability as a superior air command fighter. The critics came from 2015 going against everything F-35. A Hill AFB pilot who since has come from Eglin in 2015 has stated, 

"The plane I flew at Eglin is not even close to the ones I fly at Hill". 

"The Hill aircraft are so much better, more prepared and functional matching up to its current potential, it would be unfair to compare it with the circa 2015 Eglin F-35" (paraphrased quotes). 

Concurrency is demonstrated with the Hill maintenance model. There were several flaws discovered from testing concerning G-force fuel distribution limits and an inherent vulnerability from lightning strikes. Even though this is not all the flaws the F-35 has to overcome, it was a field test for its service members’ maintainers, testing if they could resolve problems on station going beyond its normal maintenance issues while using service maintainers for resolving F-35A upgrades.

The answer came quickly with this "A-Team" of maintainers. They prepared twelve F-35's applying updates to the airframe and by solving the G-force fuel problem and then maintainers prepared the F-35 for lighting strikes, per maintenance bulletins (important IOC to-do list item) coming from the manufacturer, Lockheed Martin. Mission was accomplished and it also included computer software updates installed on the Hill F-35's for the first dozen fighters. 

Concurrently, the Lockheed Martin production line is installing the Hill AFB proven modifications so that Hill's aircraft number 25 coming to the base maintainers will have all updates for those aforementioned issues it had successfully fixed on station with its first fifteen F-35's.

In June, six prepared F-35A's went to Mountain Home for a week fighting against adversarial F-16 and F-15's.

Those are the USAF premier multi-role fighters defending our nation today. The sad part of this exercise is that these fighter types were flying lost against the F-35 and could not obtain a kill unless a flying accident was even to occur. 

The complainers find little solace in the Mountain Home exercise and they have not opine over the recent Red Flag exercise in Nevada which the F-35 recently participated in. Senator McCain has met his F-35 match and was shot down with his own words, The F-35 is "a scandal and tragedy". It’s more like tricky, slippery and once mastered, unfair to others trying to take it out.

In Utah, the F-35 stands up on the "Hill".

Boeing Smokes 'em If They Got 'em

Guidance and projections on corporate earnings is a tricky place. The old adage smoke'em if you got'em (cigars) is in play when it recognizes cost through write downs against stock valuations during current constant times. The numbers after third quarter make even the squeamish turn its color of green into red. Boeing is making adjustments from both the 787 and 767 Tanker program, pushing its stock around on a year over year basis. Actual numbers are found in its stock valuation as it drops and changes with the financial models that are set-up for future improvements, and as it rapidly approaches a "norming" phase for its family of aircraft. Every type is undergoing a vast changes from the 737 Max to the 787 program with only the 747-8's in a doubtful position. 

The forecasts are cast in shadows from vulnerabilities exposed from its KC-46 tanker program costs to its 777X program having some sales uncertainty. Having both the Max and 787-10 stepping forward in the same time slot may certainly arouse some stock pricing angst and will also add to the Boeing risk element for its financials. Hinting at retiring the 747 program is also a signal Boeing is propositioning its next foray into advanced technology by losing the monkey hanging over its head.

In other words Boeing has dumped cost up front so it may proceed forward in a more solid financial position as its new programs come into fruition

In spite of the dangers where Boeing is walking through important program inefficiency, the outlook should improve by year end or the Beginning of 2017 as it maintains solid production output and then benefiting  through generating a cash abundance environment for its commercial programs.

F-35 IOC

A difficult time for Boeing is watching Lockheed Martin have its F-35 reach IOC on August 2nd, 2016. The F-35A Air Force version has proven itself against every IOC requirement thrown in its way. The Initial Operational Capability tests launches the Block 2B lot of F-35 aircraft ready for combat going to the Block 3i level completeness. This next level polishes off the code in a combat workman like manner. It will be able to have true situational awareness for the war fighter and its pilots. This is the fifth generation anchor for its capability. A system that can defeat any enemy instead of relying on agility, speed and physical capabilities matching all fourth generation war fighters. Fifth generation fighters will have data resources coming into the war bird from ground, space and air to air realms. 

A touch screech directs the data to optimal results in a millisecond. The early on pilot testers reported using initial software loads could not maximize the aircraft's fighting purpose going against an F-16. The point of that testing demonstrated the aircraft did not have the muscle against the F-16 where its "brains" were not available for the exercise and the F-35 was no match. 

The second concern was coming from the pilot who could not master its aircraft attributes in combat testing. Otherwise "they" did not know how to utilize the aircraft fighting advantage and relied on conventional skills for which the F-35 was not designed for while lacking a show of force during air to air combat schemes. But when updates to systems occured and pilots understood the theory of warfare from an F-35 perspective it became a smug experience of having the superior position over the F-16, F-15, and any other fourth generation war bird. It wasn't even a contest when aerial fights occurred between the fourth and fifth generation fighter.

At Mountain Home AFB there was a week of sorties, bombings and dogfights with the F-35 and the home teams F-15 participating. The F-15 had professional pilots who flew their war fighter at a level of combat readiness. They knew all the tricks of Air to Air combat. 

The test wing from Hill AFB Utah only had combat capable aircraft for short time where its maintainers had just completed F-35 mechanical and software updates to the aircraft from the perspective of in service operations and not from the Lockheed Martin team doing the upgrades.

The report card showed a wow moment. The F-35 completed 88 sorties without a hiccup while the Air Force team from Hill was operating in the field, and it made fifteen of sixteen successful bomb runs. The F-15 team was mopped up by the F-35 even though they were a high level unit from Mountain Home. They aren't talking about what happened because the F-35 is that good when applied appropriately using all its attributes of a fifth generation fighter. It may be that the F-35 is so much better than advertised it is better to let an adversary find out in combat when it becomes too late for them to rethink how to combat the F-35.

The key transition has moved from muscle 4th generation to sensory fifth generation attributes. Even though it can fly mach 1.6 or 1200 MPH is doesn't have to go faster but is needed to go longer. The DOD is looking at a new jet engine that can hyper cruise on long runs. Both P&W (135) and Boeing are involved in designing and making a jet engine that does not need an after burner mode to get the job done when it needs additional speed on long runs.

With all the complexities found within this fighter it is expected more issues will emerge as just another glitch in a long line of glitches. A rational thinker sees a strong foundation from its initial frame which can accommodate a continuous flow of updates added to the frame. The WIP approach on the F-35 has set the bar high and in 10-15 years, more development can be installed on the very first frames currently in operation. IOC is the starting gun sounding off for the race towards the F-35's vision of always getting better.

Boeing Builds Sales After Farborough

The Boeing company with its customers have announced significant sales post Farnborough event. On July 27, 2016 it was announced that Malaysia Airlines have ordered twenty-five/25 with options 737 Max 8's (total 50) for about $2.75 billion and another six 787-9's to Xiamem  for about 1.4 billion at list prices. The total order book helps the Boeing 787 2016 order outlook, as the 787 has garnered a solid number during 2016 with a net thirty-five Dreamliners booked year to date.

Winging It chart:

This puts Boeing ahead of Airbus for the year after garnering a net 425 single aisle during this year to date even though Airbus had an extremely strong Farnborough sales tally coming from its single aisle reports. Boeing, none the less, maintains a single aisle sales lead for 2016 year to date bookings. It is also noted Malaysia Airlines ordered an additional 25 on option making a total of fifty 737 Max in play even though only twenty-five 737's will be booked at this time.

The 787 orders received a shot in the arm as both Ruili and Xiamen have both ordered six each 787-9's during Farnborough, and then since Farnborough respectively. A total of a net thirty-five 787's have been ordered this year even though Boeing has not updated its order book on its website to date. By month's end Boeing should reflect all changes on its website from post Farnborough sales activities.

Boeing Orders Grow Continually In 2016

In spite of the Airbus' big Farnborough airshow order count Boeing is keeping pace with its rival in a workman like manner. Netting 2016 Orders to date with MOU's (likely finalized in 2016), Boeing has about 460 net Orders when comparing with Airbus numbers of 475 net orders according to each other’s own web site counting YTD data and using reported Farnborough totals not yet entered on as firm orders.

Boeing Sales Chart

Airbus Sales Chart

Boeing 101: Axial Loading On The KC-46 Passes Milesstone C Test

Recently as in this month the KC-46 needed to pass a significant test point before the military can accept and announce the first Lots of KC-46 production for about 19 KC-46's. Boeing hit an Axial Load wall with its C-17 and F-16 tests Earlier this year. The military issued a no-go memorandum before accepting any KC-46 from Boeing. The term bantered about was Axial Loading as a big problem. Going to the internet was the first step in solving a blogging problem about Axial Loading.

As all studious patrons of knowledge, must have a quick course established on the internet for such a problem. Boeing engineers go to school for years studying Axial Loads and have come up with a mechanical solution to alleviate Axial Loading with its KC-46 Boom and fuel delivery system.

Axial Loading 101 Class summary:

"An Axial load is a force administered along the lines of an axis. Axial loading occurs when an object is loaded so that the force is normal to the axis that is fixed, as seen in the figure. Taking statics into consideration the force at the wall should be equal to the force that is applied to the part."

Word Problem: A boy who weighs 60 lbs is pulling a toy wagon having about 200 lbs of bricks stacked in the wagon. The boy comes to a crack in the sidewalk and the wagon stops. The boy must hang onto the wagon handle and pull the wagon through the sidewalk's cracked ridge. A garden hose is also strung through the handle under home water pressure coming from the house. Jerking the wagon over the crack could disconnect the garden hose that is running down inside the wagon's handle, and then cause a blow-out and a big mess for the load of bricks stopped at the sidewalk crack. The boy could not compensate for the change in his Axial Load grip on the wagon handle and the hose stretched and came disconnected. What was the change in force between the Boy, hose, and handle to the wagon causing the blow-out?

The question is run through the boy's tablet and an answer came back instructing him to adjust his grip and lever the wagon over the side-walk crack exerting enough force keeping the the boy to wagon connection stable and the hose connected.

 The A-10 Wart Hog has just successfully completed the Boom full load transfer validating The KC-46 for production.

The KC-46 is the boy and the C-17 is the wagon with a load of bricks. Boeing needed a computer monitoring the ever changing Axial Loads from turbulence and airspeed and then have a mechanical hydraulic input on its boom to stay connected. A drogue and hose line outboard on a wing is a situation normal condition while the A-10, F-16 and C-17 all have been tested on the boom as successful. Thus completing the fueling from the KC-46 and mastering axial loads with its software and hardware fixes. Milestone C is complete awaiting government approval for first production of nineteen KC-46.

Hose refueling without Axial Load Issues