Thursday, August 18, 2016

Has The 787 Reached The Doldrums In 2016?

If considering all the 787 news in a composite picture the view would indeed make the 787 program seem like it has turned into a sedate like stupor from lack of August production and a lack of sales in a worldwide market place. Only nine 787's are expected from Boeing in August after a robust back to back production numbers of 14 in each of the months June and July.

Image result for doldrums

Orders for the 787 seem to be stagnant and somewhat questionable going forward this fall, signaling a slow year for the 787 sales. Those hoping for a 787 demise such as Airbus may suffer a real disappointment in 2016, as both its production and sales for its A350 become a mere shadow of Boeing's ultimate number for 2016.

Boeing has booked a nominal "net" nineteen 787 for 2016 and incredibly this summer has been a hot summer while thrust reversing are questionable for its 787 engines. The summer continues on heating up while 787 sales languish.

Now the other side of the coin suggests a percolation of sales are about to bubble up and the new issues are just the culmination of a mature program, for which can never shake those types of questions going forward. The program's flight cycles and flying conditions will reveal any issues as time goes forward, while the Boeing data system documents the 787 and the operational end of the puzzle has a built in safety net where systems redundancy, preventive measures, and lessons learned mitigates any harm before a problematic outcome can ever be reached.

Hence the summer doldrums are reached while the 787-10 production footprint is established in Charleston, SC. Then the Everett,WA plant takes the brunt of Boeing's August wide body production capacity for the 787, resulting in the paltry nine 787's expected for delivery during the month.

There are rumors of sales announcements or pending customer approvals while those customers reaches its decisions. If all things are considered it will make the Boeing company the ultimate winner for the 2016 order book totals over its rival, Airbus.

Somebody is going to win an order for 100 wide bodies.  China is not done ordering yet in 2016. There are always the long term customer's who have historically ordered Boeing aircraft, but they have not positioned themselves for pulling the the order trigger. Counting all these suppositions, one could make the air framer a very good year and with only four more months in 2016 to go.

Forecaster look at long range averages and standard deviation factors assigned by seasonality indicators, and then coming up with how many aircraft are needed in a given year, without acknowledging this doldrum period currently in play. It only looks at the overarching data. By combining the rumors and projections together, Boeing has made it to a position of wide body domination and becoming the leading edge in the aviation world.  It may sell its production number in 2016 which is a truly achievable goal.  

Although Boeing has to reach the doldrums at this time in order to meet its goals for the 787-10 production, and then trim its back-log back while not pushing for sales announcements, therefore it allows for customer satisfaction while it places orders its new 787's during the fall of 2016.