There are several theories floated by the press that the automated leveling electronics failed to fly the 737 Max at the appropriate elevation. Soon after take-off, this Lion Air Max 737 airplane crashed presumed to kill all on board with 189 passengers and crew. The various accident review boards quickly encircled electronic parts that could cause a catastrophic flight level change for which the pilots could not overcome. The airplane flew into the sea, killing everyone. The plane's body has not been located indicating a nose dive with a 600 mile an hour entry into a cement-like ocean. This may not even be the real cause but it is a start and may lead to the real reason the brand new 737 failed to fly as designed. Boeing will try to replicate its faults in the lab. It will use its Max systems set up for all planes currently flying to see if it can duplicate an errant condition with all parts used in flying at a level course. Pilots usually take-off and land for about several minutes at each end of the flight. They are also responsible for making good judgment calls for unhooking automated flying systems as extraordinary flying conditions exists. The pilot must fly the plane under those rules and judgments about the aircraft. Not knowing the answer, to what went wrong on this flight, makes the case a clear mystery even for the professional observer. The pilots could not control the aircraft with the state the equipment was in during its last minutes. The black box information will show the pilot was trying to save the airplane. The second box when found should complete what happened from the human and mechanical side of the accident. The real topic is a brave new world type of conjecture. The airplane automation is good or in some cases a great addition to flying but atrophying pilot abilities back to the 20th century. The plane flies itself and pilots are needed to watch as flying caretakers. When something breaks, the human is locked out of the solution because so many interdependent systems are overwhelmed, it too loses additional functionality on the aircraft for which the pilot cannot intercede with its automated systems fast enough. Diagnosing the problem of a million parts going bad takes too long and can lead to miscorrecting the problem and cause a further catastrophe. Has aviation reached a new vulnerability? The pilot is just a monitor and not the craftsman at the controls. If a computer chip has a weakness in its circuitry, eventually one day it will mishap during mid-flight where systems may not let those monitors "in" to do the job needed. I will be interested in the final summary report on this crash as it will explain how far technology has taken aviation away from humans while placing us in the hands of electronic controls and computers. What downed the 737 Max? It wasn't the pilot!
Long ago there were Venn diagrams, maybe as far back as a sophomore in the 1968 high school geometry class. Anyways, the diagram might have a circle for the A-380 and its seat and range graphic. It may have a 787 near the center of the diagram for its ultimate plotting. Below is a very accurate detail of how the Venn diagram works for an aviation aficionado. Boeing has "its hand in the air" with its 787 analysis and Airbus has put everyone on the floor with its A-380 big dream. Obviously, Airbus doesn't read its own Venn diagrams and is paying for it at this time as the A-380 and other of its wide-bodied aircraft look for "I'm not asking twice" zonal thinking.
Boeing 787 Program Venn Diagram
Boeing will continue to expand its lead order over Airbus with its "hands in the air" approach. "Are you with me?" What is missing from Airbus is its asking price for the A-350 and A-380 models. Boeing has undercut the price market with its offering. The reason the 777X has stalled is that the 777X is in the "DJ's" realm on the chart. The price is not right and the distance too thin for a reconfiguration of the marketplace. The final Venn diagram tells Boeing, "if you don't listen to me there will be severe consequences!" Boeing will sell more 777X after it enters the market because it reaches and it settles into the blank spaces of "put your hands in the air", near the center, and on either side of the 787 pole position in this diagram.
An old school term for going around a membership and seeing whose in. In Boeing's case, the club includes those who are currently flying firmed up or delivered 787s from prior orders. The importance of this "Club" has spurred Boeing to make a 14 month 787 production goal with its suppliers and customers. It has or will have the orders to support this commitment. The case in point is United has now firmed up another nine 787-9 on Boeing's books. By the end of this year, more orders will be added. How many is pure conjecture but any indication of this order goal is that another 50 orders remain to be gleaned from the marketplace during 2018? I haven't forgotten the 40 hanging orders for the 787-10 "committed" by Emirates during this year but has not yet firmed. That number could be part of Boeing's sales canvass of how many 787's its current customers are signaling as an eventual "Firm" order. In a perspective view, Boeing could book 170 787's during 2018. That would be a pinnacle year when no new Boeing 787 model types were introduced and only current models were ordered. This also would be "a great disappointment" for Airbus as Boeing's customers are reloading the order gun with Boeing's bullet-nosed 787's. Whatever is not booked this year could flow into next year thus making the decision to increase 787 production to 14 a month a logical decision. Boeing then needed to ramp up production through its supplier base giving it a long enough lead time for its supplier base. Only 644 units of the 787 remain to be delivered at this time and a healthy order year makes the 14 a month goal possible. Boeing has made its customer canvass with those already held 787's in its respective fleets. So Boeing has a ballpark number of how many 787's it will need over the next five years for satisfying its customer's needs. A 14 a month pace times 60 months or five years would require 840 unit backlog of 787's where now it only has 644 units yet to be built. Boeing needs another 196 787's ordered over the next five years and that "canvass" plus committed orders suggest it has met that objective easily. Taking this assumption further, it also spills into the deferred costs reduction of its $24 Billion to go from about $30 Billion initially. The unit analysis of 1398 total 787's booked will grow to 1594 if Boeing receives another 196 orders during the next 60 months. That is achievable and Boeing already knows what it can do over the next five years driving the deferred cost to zero long before the fifth year arrives.
The often maligned F-35 for its glitches is finally getting some fantastic press when it can now connect to tons and tons, by weight, in a weapons bay on an LHA or LHD navy ship. A system link allows communication from the F-35 to the fleet's ships. The intended ship becomes an F-35 by extension without revealing where the actual F-35 is located as it fires its own missiles at any enemy platform found by the F-35. The next 70 years of the F-35 usefulness is providing a test bed for new naval weapons systems weighing more than the F-35 itself. Why is that important? A new terminology can be used for modern warfare. In this case, it is transferability. The F-35 becomes a sub-satellite or a sub orbiting eye above the battle space deployed specifically in a spot to render firepower onto an enemy over two-thirds of the planet containing water. Furthermore, the F-35A covers the remaining land mass issuing information to tanks, missiles, and bunkers. By the year 2100, a supersonic drone will do more than what the F-35 can do today! But the F-35 will have tested all the drones new systems. There is a war window for adversaries, which is today! The time element is beating any incursion from abroad. Simply, "others" won't be able to keep up with the F-35 capability as its plug and play era of advanced electronic and offensive capability for the F-35 is ahead of everything else. Once it is loaded into the F-35 in that aforementioned plug and play environment it can advance beyond what "others" have available. In the year 2100 its hard to imagine what the state of war will become but it should include autonomous warfare for the destruction of everything that threatens. The F-35 becomes that testbed for autonomous warfare as new systems and weapons are plugged in and deployed according to changes within the battlespace. There is a future for laser warfare but something may replace it by the year 2100. It may be a particle beam shot at a system. Or an EMP shot coming from a drone's power system. The F-35 engine has immense power today but in seventy years, two power systems may exist on a super drone. One for motive power and one for weapon capability. But all in a smaller package than today's examples. Therefore the bridge to the future will include another incremental step in the next thirty years. It will include a batch of capability items from space, air or ground. In the more traditional mindset, the modern airforce will have the evasive flying capability or greater stealth. An F-60 or so, name, may come to the forefront. It should be semi-autonomous where a human may be present in airspace directing the slave drones to its point of attack. A stepping stone for those who will not let the human out of a tangible battle chain. The "guy" in the basement is fighting, but a "guy" in the sky will be supervising the fight. The F-35 will pave the way for all of what can be imagined for weapons systems and flying capability, joining with everything offensive or defensive.
When the F-35B crashed in Florida weeks ago, the F-35 program may have reached a milestone. Things that go wrong for a military aircraft takes years of mishap to determine what can go wrong. The F-35's build evolution may have left its R&D initial build hanger and moved into an operational hanger. Faulty fuel tubes have been deemed as the culprit for the first crash of an F-35, an F-35B to be exact. It is the most complex of three F-35's types offered because of its lift fans and other sundry things that support this avionic marvel. Crashing and burning $150 million in a minute or less because of a fuel tube failure, is not what is ever desired, but having reached this milestone indicates the problems for the program may have approached the nuts and bolts stage rather than its developmental computer stage. It's not saying software and hardware still have some vetting to do and will always having development going on. In fact, the jet is expected to be a frontline fighter for the next 50 years and the R&D phase will chase it into retirement like all self-respecting supersonic fighters have done in the past. Perhaps the F-35 reached its program maturity when its fuel tubes failed on one F-35B. Kind of like a hydraulic line leaking out on a backhoe. Remember this flying supercomputer has parts surrounding it in order to mechanically fly. But it's progressing into its promise on being the very next best JSF nobody else has in its inventory, except for a few our allied "friends" who have emersed themselves into the F-35 culture. I wondered why it only flew at a speed of Mach 1.6 when for the last fifty years fighter jets and even some bombers fly faster than Mach 1.6. Then it dawned on me there is a preponderance of dependency on that "supercomputer" to do the work instead of doing elite airshow stunts like Russia and China prefer to do. After-all stunts impress its masses. War is not about stunts it's about winning and the US is flying its supercomputer against aerobatic displays. The F-35 isn't about 20th-century dog-fighting as found in the movie "Top Gun". However, it is about fighting at the speed of light on a circuit board or in a computer chip. That is the theory in a nutshell. In fact, the aviation weapons progression has not kept up with the F-35 task and purpose. It doesn't have long enough range of missiles, It doesn't hold enough weapons in its stealthy bays. It has too few bullets onboard making the A-10 the ultimate tank killer. However, the F-35 can do so much more from 50,000 feet than at 50 feet. It's survivable from that distance and those on the ground are not without the F-35, as it "directs" tons of various weapons on to targets in a "fixed" battle space. Fixed could be defined as moving slower than a hundred miles per hour going across the land. That pesky little flying computer strikes again firing weapons within a diverse battle space using others artillery, rockets and directing forces to hidden adversarial targets. It can also link ships, submarines and other aircraft in its battle plan, slaving Mach 2+ to its purposes from special built speed aircraft delivering its own payloads with precision. So Mach 1.6 is about right after-all. The coach on aviation's bench isn't needed as a Wide receiver or quarterback in this metaphor, it just has to game plan better than the opposition who doesn't have a coach capable of doing so many things in from the battle sidelines. Its true weapon is that its upgradeble as new inventions of war emerge. The F-35 needs a pilot to bring the speed of light to the battle space in an up close and personal manner. Perhaps this is a stepping stone for a satellite battle management!
Xiamen Airlines a subsidiary of China Southern is in some talks with Airbus. Those talks would include its NEO family of single-aisle aircraft including the A321NEO. Boeing is on the sideline with only its defense on the field. This is a typical American football battle. However, even defense can turn the ball over with a "pick 6". The bigger issue becomes Boeing's NMA play. Boeing can't run it unless it's on offense. Boeing is still in the huddle on this matter. The Chinese Goose gives Boeing its golden egg or so goes the proverb in some sort of quote. The 797 could be squeezed out on an Airbus play with a Chinese airline. Will this Xiamen attempt score the 797 announcement? The answer could come as soon as Paris 2019. If Xiamen holds back on the Airbus advance, then a 797 is on the horizon at the next big airshow it would seem. Boeing can only wait so long until future orders begin to erode away before an NMA announcement is even made, The pressure is on by Airbus to force Boeing's hand into an incomplete move for its next big thing. It's a game of chicken with high stakes on the table. The Winging IT mantra was the NMA was a foregone conclusion several years back. Boeing exclaimed! "Boeing needs more time, more study for a business case and now this from Airbus." A full assault in China on one of Boeing's best customers. What will Airbus flush out of a Boeing hiding place with its play in the Chinese marketplace? The question itself indicates Airbus has a quick and dirty A321NEO plan shoring up against the Boeing 797 move. It will try to diminish any Boeing NMA move with an enhanced A320NEO order book and its Xiamen talks are the first example of the Airbus plans. Perhaps, Boeing all along wanted to see what card Airbus was to lay down first when Boeing was perched to announce a new program. Airbus showed its hand and now more Boeing people are discussing a reaction with action. It was one of those 50 things we can do if Airbus does this or that. Well, Airbus has gone to Xiamen with big plans. An NMA launch customer position for Xiamen is up in the air with a fresh offer from Airbus. Sherlock Holmes would say, "the games afoot!" The Airbus card has been flip and the Boeing response is awaiting a slap. Then Airbus will have to go ahead and announce a fully enhanced single-aisle NEO to square off against a 797. Airbus is calling BS on Boeing with this overture played for Xiamen. Boeing so far doesn't even indicate what it will make until Airbus plays its cards. A boot will drop at the next Paris Airshow.
Several pundits have hinted at a 2019 797 announcement by Boeing. There is starting to be bits and pieces of information coming to the forefront. These bits include some benchmarks in design aspirations for a 797.
Plastic Body
Plastic wings
797-6 with a 2-3-2 seating for 228 passengers (4,500 NM)
797-7 with a 2-3-2 seating for 267 passengers (2 classes) (4,200 NM)
Boeing sees a two-fold market for its 797. One is crossing water between continents comfortably. Meaning landing in Frankfort from Philadelphia, PA becomes a travel pair. Or could it be Toronto to Paris could be another Pair? The Pacific ocean is a giant pond that may stretch 7,000 miles across. Having a range of only 4,500 miles would make the 797 a companion model to the 787 families of aircraft. Those 797 miles would stay in the Asian and Australian regions with ease but not flying trans-Pacific. The second market is for high-density regional flying. Everywhere the A321 goes the 797 will do better. Airbus will have to announce something within six months after Boeing announces in 2019. It sounds like the Paris airshow for the 797 drum roll. Boeing does plan to build a lighter 797 using everything from all its recent programs. The main feature emerging is passenger comfort. I have long wanted a fifteen-foot wide body with seven seats across in a two-aisle configuration. Space can be had in two classes. Boeing's customers could bring back the 22" wide seats and reminisce about the old days of flying. Expect big windows, lots of storage and new engines. This craft will ooze with innovation and comfort. It will encroach upon both the single-aisle 737 and dual-aisle 787 families of aircraft order books as it wedges in between. In the next five years, Boeing may end up with only two Max Types offered with two 797 types offered. If the 797 nocks it out of the park, the growth potential of the 797 comes from customer marketing innovations, on how it would use its equipment from single-aisle to dual-aisle equipment. If the airline industry culture uses the 797 for regional high-density routes, then the 737 Max will have a more balanced looking order book as the 797 reconfigures an airlines business case. The 797 is expected to cause a lot of marketplace disruption worldwide. Originally the 787-300 was going to be that "airplane", but the market wasn't ready for that "disrupter" back in the time ANA was looking at the 787-300 aircraft. Much time has passed and many technologies have emerged making a 797 a better case for the market than a 787-300 did back in 2010. An Article worth reading from:AirlineRatings
"THE PLANE PASSENGERS WILL LOVE – THE 797 – IS GETTING MUCH CLOSER.
Cabin mock-up of the Boeing 7J7 of 1990, very similar to what the 797 will be like . However the 797 will have far more advanced overhead styling.
Airline interest in the yet to be launched Boeing 797 – a plane passengers will love – is growing and the industry expects the Seattle giant to commit it to production next year.
According to New York-based analysts, Bernstein “airline interest in the New Mid-Size Airplane (NMA or 797) is clearly growing, but the demand will be highly dependent on pricing.”
The new report “Commercial Aircraft: High demand, delivery delays, engine challenges, easy money – Themes from Prague ISTAT Conference” states that “Boeing reiterated that it likes the concept, but that it has not yet been able to close on the business case.”
The analysts said that the design appears to be firming, according to many customers at a 2-3-2 cross-section with a composite fuselage and wing.
The key issue here is can Boeing build a far more comfortable plane for the passenger at a price that is competitive with currently cramped single-aisle designs on offer.
The 797 would have twice the overhead bin space, two aisles and most passengers would have an aisle or window seat.
Or put another way will passengers pay a bit extra to fly on the 797 to justify its higher cost to build? The rise and rise of premium economy suggests that “yes” is the answer.
Boarding of single-aisle aircraft is becoming a nightmare particularly in the US where the trend is for passengers to bring all their luggage onboard with them.
This is a major problem as the overhead bins are not large enough and the drama surrounding getting the luggage into the overhead slows the boarding process to a crawl.
Verbal fights often break out over “luggage space.”
Bernstein reports that “Boeing has said it will make a launch decision in 2019 and entry into services (EIS) would be in 2025.”
In June Boeing defined two versions – the NMA-6 (797-6) with 228-passenger, 4,500nm (8,300km) and the NMA-7 (797-7) which would seat 267 in two classes with 4,200nm range.
The 797-6 would be launched first, followed by the larger 797-7. Range appears to be closing in on 4,500 nm (8300km), says Bernstein. This range allows it to do the vast majority of routes that Asian airlines currently fly with A330s as well as most interesting trans-Pacific routes and all trans-Atlantic routes.
“By not pushing the range further, the NMA should reduce weight and be able to have an engine that can be optimized for more high-cycle usage than the engines used on the A330,” said Bernstein.
Boeing is in stealth mode with executives “mum” on any more details.
Boeing sees the market at about 5000 planes over 20 years. And what is more important they see the 797 as a stimulus to the market creating thousands of new routes, thus new business.
The company says there are 30,000 city pairs currently not linked that would be perfect for the 797.
“The 797 will be like a 787 on steroids,” one UK financial analyst told Airlineratings.com. “It will open up routes everywhere.
The compelling business case for the 797 is that it is designed to fit between the smaller and sshort-range 737/A320 aircraft and the much larger, heavier and longer range 787/A330 types.
The UK analysts said his “sources tell me they [Boeing} are almost there and they are really excited about this aircraft.”
“They expect it to be produced at much higher rates than the 787.”
The massive appeal of the 797 will be its passengers cross section of 2-3-2 with huge overhead luggage bins which will put an end to the economy crush.
The 797 will be a made of composite material like the 787 and it will be able to economically connect hundreds of new non-stop routes between smaller cities.
Earlier this year Boeing moved one of its top engineers Terry Beezhold, to the program signaling that it is very serious about the aircraft.
Mr. Beezhold has had lead roles in the 787 and was project engineer on the ultra-long-range 777X, which will fly next year.
Boeing and its legacy company, McDonnell Douglas both touted a similarly sized aircraft – 7J7 and ATMR – as early as 1980. However, at the time aircraft seating was more spacious and passenger’s carry-on very limited and airlines couldn’t make the business case.
The image below is a publicity from McDonnell Douglas showing the difference between its then proposed ATMR with the Boeing 757 which is virtually identical in cross-section to today’s 737/A320.
Fast forward to 2018 and passenger seating is far more cramped and the demand for overhead space far greater than a single aisle capacity allows.
The 797 with a 2-3-2 configuration means passengers will have more room regardless of the seat pitch and the overhead bin space will be massive.
Another plus will be that boarding and deplaning will be much faster."
Both makers have taken a different tac is this aviation Cup races. The Boeing corporation offers a direct family of aircraft with 787's and Airbus who lacked a complete A-350 by offering only attacking buyers for its A-350-900 and A350-1000 also offers a downwind price for its family of A-330 NEO's, the 800 and 900 versions. Sales have been meek for the low end as just only Kuwait has ordered 8 of the A330-800 NEO. Before there were none on order for Airbus. The takeaway is what this order means in the broader sense. Airbus has succeeded with its market philosophy. Spread the market with a plethora of types like a buffet, where Boeing offers exact menu items for customer entrees. What this means is the Airbus marketing has established a market niche through a true buffet offering. Nothing is quite as good as the main menu item and everything is covered for what a customer may want. On the other hand, Boeing is reading market its surveys and offering 6 oz steaks for airline pallets. It sounds like a Sizzler marketing seminar. Offer a salad bar or steak off the menu completing an Airbus/Boeing market coverage. Here is an opinion, Boeing company builds the 787 to bookend Airbus' buffet offering. The 787 is the steak. The A-330 NEO is the salad bar. Airbus also offers a 20oz steak for $19.99 with its A-350. Having more steak, more calories and more money than a Boeing 787. Then Airbus comes in with its A-330 NEO salad bar for beating the Boeing 8oz steak from its 787 menus. What a mess for a family of five wanting a good eating value. The A350 is too much airplane and money for that proverbial family and the salad bar (A330 NEO) is a lacking immensely for children who just want hamburger and fries from a drive-in.
The Airbus-A-330 NEO salad bar/steak
The A-350 Seat Maker 20 oz Steak
So I compare Boeing to a Texas Road House menu and Airbus to a Sizzler menu. Kuwait just went for the salad bar ordering 8 A-330NEO-800's. It's because Airbus offered a price it couldn't refuse selling an adequate airframe from the A330 NEO barn. It not about who builds what at this point, but it's how the kids in the back seat react when the parents chose where to go on eating out where mom needs a break. Kuwait has chosen the A330NEO as an affordable bridge to an ultimate entree style airline.
