777X Check-Mate's Airbus in Checkers?

Can the 777X program get its wings during 2017? The main thing, Boeing needs about another 150 777-X's orders placed to feel a sense of comfort as it will strive to build about 100 of its type each year. That arbitrarily production numbers fills the five year business cycle, requiring about 500 777X for the production cycle backlog. Currently the book stands at 326 777-X ordered since Singapore dissed Airbus. A significant number but only represents about 65% of five hundred units needed during a five year production plan, or a customer buying plan.

At the end of any five year period, Boeing already needs a reload for the 777X orders totaling another five hundred when keeping the annual production count at 100. Counting today’s backlog of 326 777X’s and going forward ten years from first delivery (2018-2019), gives Boeing  time to fill up 174 more 777X orders by 2022 and another 500 777X orders by 2029 totaling 626 777X ordered over the next 10 years. In other words Boeing needs about 62 777X ordered each year going forward for maintaining an optimal production pace for an extended period of time.

The Singapore Air order becomes a cross road for both manufacturer as the market ponders not having A-380 replacements and coupling with long range metrics from a customer perspective. Airbus wants a business case made for going forward with more A-350 models or an A-380 renovation called a NEO. However, this ship may have already sailed and Airbus was left at the dock!

When Boeing announced the 777X type, it had done its due diligence within the total market and needed to sew its family of aircraft together while beating Airbus to the draw. The Airbus dilemma, Airbus knew it was already shot when Boeing moved on the 777X announcement, and it now finds itself scrambling for an answer without spending billions. The A-380 is "Dead On Arrival", and Airbus knows it. The A-350-1000 has peaked while the A-350-2000 and A-350-8000 are billions away from becoming a reality. It will take Airbus at least five years to bring ether Airbus advanced wide body concepts to the market.

The long range mega planes market is a very thin one at that. City pairs from 7,000-9,000 miles are counted on ledger sheets with airlines forecasting and note pads. It doesn’t take a big computer analyzing if it will be profitable. Meanwhile, it takes multitudes of people and computers tracking every "single aisle" routing pairs as those routes are numbered in the thousands. 

Looking at the wide bodied end of opportunity is a two edge sword. First the 777X carries a lot of people. Secondly, there are limited opportunities for moving lots of people going from point A to point B farther than 8,000 miles. 

The 777X got there first. Remember when Airbus announced the A-320 NEO before Boeing was even ready for announcing the 737-Max a year later. Somebody got "fired" at Boeing for that mess-up.

The wide body announcement of the 777X several years back is the same thing in reverse for Airbus as what happened with Boeing during its single aisle debacle. Airbus wasn’t ready with gap filling its just launched A-350-900 wide body, and Boeing stole the thin market before it could even load up its drafting pencil lead. Boeing was playing chess and Airbus was player checkers, and it has now found itself check-mated at this time. 

Airbus can’t sacrifice the A-350-2000 even though it’s a rook, and not the single aisle pawn used to confound Boeing. Losing the wide body battle can crumble the Airbus castle. The A-380 is not a “Queen of the skies”, but it will retire off the board quicker than accountants can count any profit. 

The 777X once again angles across the chess board and captures the A-380 as if it were a bishop. Is the 777X a rook or a bishop? Singapore Airlines has hinted at retiring its fleet of A-380's through fleet reductions. The Singapore Boeing 777X order was no hint at all.

The Singapore Airlines order is a market game changer (20 777-X9's and 19 787-10's). Boeing can currently connect the dots from its single aisle to Jumbo size twin engine aircraft. The only hole in its scheme is with the A-321 NEO. A 737 Max-10 pawn would be a sacrificed piece on the board, as once again the Boeing "787 Knight" will rewrite the 757 market using a CFRP based Tweener in ten years. 

It’s coming, it’s just a matter of somebody else money before announcing or moving forward on various other programs such as the 737 Max, the 777X and 787-10. Boeing must stop spending somebody’s money on vast programs before the Tweener can get to the money trough or gets on the game board. 

World's Largest Airplane Manufacturer Race Starts January 2017

The Airbus/Boeing horse race is on, “Whose Biggest Maker at  the end of 2017. There are obvious strengths and weaknesses coming from each in the running. Airbus has strength of Backlog. Boeing has strength of productivity. Airbus is far behind its customer’s planning cycle while Boeing cannot sustain its production surge for only a few more years as it has a lower backlog value than Airbus.

Fig.1 All financial calculation are based on "List" prices.

What this all means is the following:

·            Airbus has time for its productivity increasing upward from its enormous backlog.

·            Airbus needs to rapidly increase production drawing down its backlog

·            Boeing has little time for booking additional sales matching the Airbus backlog.

·            Boeing is running out of big ticket deliveries as the 747 retires and 777X is not ready for delivery.

·            Boeing having a 25 billion plus order year over Airbus will take it about six years for catching Airbus' lead

·            The backlog disparity can be advantageous for Boeing as they become more customer concentric for making deliveries.

• Boeing can absorb more airshow orders than Airbus.

·        Airbus has a robust single aisle delivery potential greater than Boeing’s.      

Backlog build-up is the key for both manufacturers. The Boeing strength is managing its backlog with customer demand, where Airbus can’t out produce its own backlog with customer requirements for timely deliveries. In some cases customers may wait longer for a delivery out of its own financial sources available. 

Fig. 2  Boeing Single Aisle January 2017 YTD Match-up

Fig. 3  Airbus Single Aisle January 2017 Comparison YTD

Most corporate companies have five year plans where any manufacturer such as Airbus have an order backlog greater than five years of backlog coming from its single aisle production. The difficult task is optimal efficiency for production and a large enough just-in-time delivery schedule.

Having a right sized backlog assures lower prices from having large just-in-time parts ordering. A lumpy production cycle disrupts the ability of having lower parts pricing such as the 747 is currently experiencing. Optimal efficiency comes from a continuous production flow which takes advantage of all resources and gives customers the ability to plan its own future growth or replacements inventory.

Boeing is closer to this philosophy than Airbus, but Boeing is also closer to lowering its own production pace than Airbus which will contribute in time for whom becomes the world’s largest airplane manufacturer.

Even though Boeing deliveries where greater than its orders (748/668) during 2016, and all predictions lean towards a scant order year for both makers, it remains to be seen how this will impact both by years end 2017. However, two things are certain, 

Boeing will maintain productivity pace and Airbus will increase its productivity over its 2016 numbers.

Both mega builders have challenges which they must address. Boeing needs more orders and Airbus needs a level production flow for all its types ordered. 

Below are Winging It best information chart for the racing status with the number to look at units produced during 2017 and value of those units in total. 

The secondary analysis number is the backlog value and units to be built, as it will determine each corporate's stamina for the long run. Boeing leads on the backstretch but can it maintain its pace at an arbitrary finish line?

Fig. 4 Boeing 2017 YTD Orders Wide Body

Fig. 5 Airbus 2017 YTD Orders Wide Body

Fig. 6 Boeing January YTD Deliveries Wide Body

Fig. 7 Airbus 2017 YTD Deliveries Wide Body

The final period-one numbers demonstrates Boeing is out of the 2017 gate faster than Airbus in large number since the typical January "retooling" period is the slowest production time of the year. Even though Boeing reduced its backlog further than Airbus it is closer to its prime customer's wait time making room for future orders with delivery dates considering customer planning. Round 1 goes to Boeing by a long shot.

Winging It Looks Two Years Back At A380 Sales Stagnation

A-380 is A Saturated order Book While The A350-1000 Wants The Table Scraps

What has occurred is that Boeing has stopped the bleeding at the "Big" end of the market with its 777X offering. Both the A380 and A-350-1000 are at a point in time where there are no answers for its sales dilemma.

The A350 Program Wikipedia recap: Since the time of the article link above Airbus has sold only a net 11 of the A350 wide bodies after announcing the A350-1000 in 2013.

Wikipedia chart sources below: 

Below, the chart indicates only 13, A380's have been booked since 2014.

The same head to head count showing both the 787 and 777X charted below for comparison.

Boeing has booked net 170 of its wide bodied 787 counting the years 2014 through 2016. Additionally, it has booked net 306 of the 777X slamming the Airbus Large end of the order book by a total of 476 Boeing wide bodies to Airbus net of only 24 wide bodies over the last two years. It is obvious Boeing has stopped Airbus aspirations at the end of the wide bodied market.

Boeing /Airbus Horse Race World's Largest 2017

Below is the Winging It's new chart between the world's largest builders of aircraft, Boeing and Airbus. These are two classes of numbers. The top of the chart are total value of each's backlog as of January 1, 2017. The far right numbers are YTD backlog values as information is posted by both Boeing and Airbus. This will be a monthly feature during the first two weeks for each month.

Note: This are preliminary numbers until Boeing posts its first month orders and deliveries on February 9, 2017. The number are only a sample of what the Race to world's largest aircraft maker 2017. Boeing is waiting for January updates and Airbus is complete for the month of January. Changes to Boeing values are expected as it will add its delivery totals and any lingering orders not posted.

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

The above chart is a sample of how total numbers are gathered. The chart is only the single aisle portion from January to date as Boeing has not posted final numbers yet, and Airbus has already posted its January net numbers.

Purchases add to the backlog and deliveries subtract from the backlog. Fig. 1 above recaps all changes from a month to month YTD summary showing which contestant leads with 2017 backlog and also includes its all-time backlog values remaining with world's largest through delivery numbers during 2017.

Winging It Takes A Break

It’s time to slow down Winging It air traffic. After a run from November 2011 until the end of January of 2017 totaling 5.3 years. This will be a notice for the readers “Winging It will not produce multiple articles a week, but will go to a sporadic issue using monthly summaries or articles for some other momentous occasion of writing about Boeing Commercial aircraft and military stuff.

Linda with "author" Andrew, and the spirit of a Winging It's Grizzly

A new chart has been started showing the air war for world’s largest air framer comparing units of Airbus and Boeing 2017 progress and value. At the end of each month this chart will update whose relative position of being world’s largest airplane maker.

It’s been a fascinating experience and a joy to write almost every other day or in some cases daily. Keep watching for new articles but don’t expect more than about two articles a month using summary content or exceptions in the news cycle to appear.

Even though at times, grammar is not been the strong suit of the blog, it is in light of my current condition. When I started I couldn’t type and if I did type it was only brief sentences. I had to relearn everything, as I couldn’t remember much from a brain injury.

The early blog sometimes had monstrous presentations where an editor could red ink the whole page with corrections for word usage, spelling, and sentence structure. Winging It was only after sharing information and opinion at the sacrifice of the English language. Gradually, improvement was made. Even though today there are flaws, they're are much fewer in number.

My thinking has improved greatly as compared with the beginning of the assignment. Even though, at that time, my thinking was excellent but motor skills and memory suffered. The blog was the assignment to improve those motor skills and memory. It’s not 100% today, but has taken a journey where the road has come to an end as a writing assignment.

In conclusion, there will be month ending numbers for the 787 program as always provided by Winging It and then another article featuring the World’s largest airplane manufacturer with an Airbus-Boeing competition chart. It will close out week one of February 2017. After that, the occasional offering as mentioned at the top of this article.

Boeing 787 Program Recaps

Boeing's 787 production is fast out of the gate for the first time since delivery started during 2011. This is the January where Boeing has not given to a paltry production number for the 787 like years past when Boeing would deliver only seven or eight during January. The backlog shrinkage for 2017 is only a -5 since it has already booked seven orders for the 787 family of aircraft.

Fig. 1 

The 90 day moving average has fallen a tick inspite a robust January delivery effort of twelve 787's. The outlook will maintain an average of 12 a month during the next 90 days.

Fig. 2

The program summary below once again demonstrates little backlog reduction from the 12 delivered and seven ordered during January. This will be an important number to watch for year ending status.

  

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

Boeing Sees Lower Order Year In 2017

Boeing is taking a conservative position, signaling insightful knowledge about its upcoming product introduction with the Max and first flight of the 787-10.  Both events could move the buy needle if and only if there are no bumps encountered. Airbus suffered A320-NEO woes with its Pratt and Whitney GW-1000 engine maker who had a few problems to iron out for the NEO. Boeing needs a first delivery Max win and a clean testing outcome for the 787-10 until the end of 2017.

A Stalled Market Pace??

The 787-10 also needs to follow on the 787-9 example by going through its testing checklist without hesitation or any minor mishaps such as a broken seat recline. If and only if these things happen will Boeing make headway in 2017 while setting the table with a robust order year for 2018.

Analyzing the Boeing order year during 2017 suggests the best prediction is the opportunity quotient for Boeing's 2017 buy outlook. That is to say purchases from customers may come in close to 2016's outcome of 668 aircraft orders placed with Boeing. The company says 2017 a lower sales count is predicted as the "buy" market slumps, but opportunity exists as Airbus logjams its backlog.

Boeing Data 2016-2035:

·      Total New Airplanes 39,620

·      Value ($B) 5,930

Astounding numbers projected where Airbus will take a slice of that pie. Winging It projection numbers indicate a straight line estimation in units, reveals a 1980 units per year market potential each year from Boeing's 20 year prognostications. If Boeing can maintain a 50-50 split with Airbus in units the market could absorb 990 aircraft each year for Boeing in purchases. The Value would be 148 billion averaged each year in sales. Boeing sold about 94 billion during 2016 and expects a drop for 2017. 

Several conclusions can be assumed by this financial relationship of proportional sales. 

·      Fifty-Fifty is not a realistic market over the next 20 years. A-B 55%  A-B 45% split is more likely as backlog impediments will move the buying market towards having immediacy of delivery for its class of airplanes. Long waiting periods for delivery harms the buying customer.

·      Superiority of product moves the ratio off the 50-50 assumption pushing buyers towards a superior product in a gradual buying preference.

The conclusion can be reached Boeing has an opportunity to at least match 2016 in numbers, but necessarily not in value. Boeing has been conservative for its 2017 orders placed guess. A great Max introduction and successful 787-10 tests will move the needle for 2017 Boeing Orders. The projection of increased production capacity matching the 20 year demand will increase order placing by two fold each year over the next 10 years. This year maybe a pausing order year, but it should keep pace, as the competitor can't and won't take on more backlog from its customer's orders placed; since the customer needs immediacy of delivery in its corporate planning periods. The tangled web of what will happen starts with the 20 Year forecast of market needs as projected by Boeing.

What is a "Trumpette"?

Noun, Adjective:

Synonym: “Power”

Antonym: “DNC”  

Definition:

A "Trumpette" is a "statement" for the purpose of drawing a line in the sand hoping it is only necessary going half that distance or implementing half its measure as a solution, reaching a negotiated benefit for whom he represents. It establishes a negotiation point for which President Donald Trump seeks.

"Once again Trump, Trumps a Trumpette when closing trade negotiations with Mexico with a Twitter." 

Otherwise, his Trumpette is an expression of where he would like to start talks from exerting great power for that discussion making it a "Trumpette".

Not to be confused with the musical instrument trumpet but has same sound volume.

Trumpette use from the Twitter-verse: “I will build a wall and Mexico will pay for it!!”

Topics Already Trumpetted below:

·      F-35

·      AF1

·      Walls

·      Deals

Airplane Wars Has A Battle Going The 737-10X

Boeing needs to stop the bleeding at the single aisle level. Confronted with costs it proposes the Max 737-10X as the weapon of choice hoping to supersede the A-321 NEO success.  230 seats with a higher stance protecting its tail during take -off and the CFM basis for engines mounting. It could hang the CFM in a wider diameter improving fuel consumption. 

What is not known, is the multi billion dollar question. How far will it fly? The key statistic moves Euro-American airlines to the Max. Boeing hasn't set the target range even though it has built the paper airplane. The second question arises, will there be a “True Middle of the Market (MOM)” or is this a stop gap planning for the next ten years?

The MOM isn't dead having the 737 MAX-10X. Boeing will not violate the MOM market potential from its single aisle with multiple sizes fits all family of aircraft. Boeing is closer to building this 737-10X than a true MOM, as it has an immediate confrontation with the A321-NEO since it robs market share away from Boeing each month.  A stop gap shim is needed sooner rather than later and a 737-Max-10X could change the single aisle dynamics before any 737 expansion thoughts becomes a lost cause.

Boeing knows this and will announce soon, perhaps suggesting why there was no end of 2016 year announcement for a new MOM type. This concept is in motion will address building more value into the 737 family with a less expensive R&D costs associated with any new clean-sheet aircraft. The True MOM will wait. If a new dual aisle follows after the 757 it becomes a 3.0 version. Therefore, a 737 Max-10X is version 2.5 coming from the single aisle class.

In order to win this battle with Airbus, a 737-10X must fly further and more efficiently than the A-321NEO, having the same passenger capacity. If they don't achieve a design superiority or customer appeal over Airbus, then Boeing must regroup its plan going 10 years out while Airbus keeps mopping up the large end of single aisle. Boeing will counter punch with a fighter’s chance in this match.

Boeing Can't Decide Who's Max on First What's on Second

Having not posted about "Launch Customer" over the last six years, it has come a time to do so while explaining who’s on first what's on second in a drivel of insight from Winging It. In December 2011, Southwest Airlines placed its launch customer order for 150 737's Max types. The line in the sand is drawn on that date. It is Boeing's launch customer for the 737 Max PERIOD! 

Now comes “who’s on first” and “what's on second”, portion of this discussion. Norwegian Air bunted its way to first (January 2012) thus Moving Southwest to second. It still remains for Southwest to score first from second after getting on first before Norwegian batted second. 

After following the above drivel in a concise manner, "Southwest" is the first up as Launch Customer and about to score this summer as Boeing's Max launch customer. It must score from second after the Norwegian Air bunt. However, Norwegian stole home on an "I don't know" play from third, suggesting it was launch customer, because it started from "First". 

However, Southwest, standing on second looked at "I don't know third". It's really messed up as Boeing loaded the bases on walks and sent Southwest home on a walk at the plate coming from its going first and receiving it's first customer copy by October 2017, where Norwegian slides in during June of 2017 ahead of Southwest's Max delivery schedule.

Norwegian has a 737 batting average of 108 737 Max ordered and Southwest has a batting average of 200 Max ordered. In a trade deal Southwest is waiting for some players to be retired before moving its pieces around the game board and Norwegian got a "six 737 card for 2017", putting them at home plate in  "Monopoly" fashion. The game changed to Monopoly before Southwest could trade off some its players while making room for the Norwegian Max 8's to steal home (pass go) using a draw card. "Baseball plus Monopoly" is the fastest growing board game this year. Southwest got to first, first, and then is delivered second, with an "I Don't Know" play from third. 

If you have questions post them here and a crack team of operators will answer them. Ask for Bud Abbott or Lou Costello because "I don't care" who scored "first" or why it’s "second".

Key:

• First base: Who
• Second base: What
• Third base: I Don't Know
• Left field: Why
• Center field: Because
• Right field: Nobody
• Pitcher: Tomorrow
• Catcher: Today
• Shortstop: I Don't Give a Darn