Boeing Blinks: Reengine Recycle 767

The US military chose the 767 for it tanker model going against the A330 so there was something in the sauce Boeing provided the US Military tanker program that goes beyond the A330 than just money and convenience the A330 couldn't offer.

The 767 is a good airframe. Now it is considering rengining the 767 with GenX type engines leaving PW behind to sort out what happens next. The PW engine is listed Two Pratt & Whitney PW 4062 with 62,000 lbs. However, GE has been developing its own class of engine for the 777X and 747 8 projects thus pumping billions into R&D into its behemoths for sometime far outpacing PW expenditures on similar class jet engine like the PW4062.

Now come the 797 proposition from scratch white paper. It's too expensive and late to compete with the A321 class of extended range gap filler. Boeing sees something out of the Airbus playbook that has quickly made it more powerful than Boeing's marketing effort. The NEO is working in the market as we speak. Boeing may divert using the 767 frame and attaching GE engine technology to its frame. It would use the 767-400 configuration and perhaps call it the 767-8i and 8F. It would be bigger than the 797 and fly further but could fit into continental market places well when flying to LA to NY as an example. Boeing needs to make it efficient for 1,000 - 5000 mile range and it will compete with the A330 and buy time for the 797 concept to evolve monetarily. 

What must Boeing do: 

• Improve 767 build technology. Done that! 767, (KC-46 program)

• New GEX engine. Done that!  (GE can provide a scalable engine  from its GEX program

• Have a short development cycle for minimal costs. Set up for that!

• New 767 wings. Done That! (It has a new wing plant in Everett, Washington awaiting more work in its space and a 767 wing could be slotted in in a short amount of time. It already has wing designs ready to go based from its 787 and 777X programs.)

• Plane Size: Done that!

• Passenger amenities. Done that! (from all its family of programs and supporting suppliers eager for expanded business.)

• Commonality. You complete me theme from its family of aircraft.

• Customers. A Works in progress! It is the tipping point for making this business case. Does Boeing have a strong and risk-averse business case for its customers? Can Boeing make 1,000 orders from the NEO 767 idea? That all remains to be seen.

Job one. (Win customer trust back and kill the Boeing Golden Parachute mentality.)

Best Fighter Worst Fight The F-35 Argument Continues

I'm in no position to take a side until a war is fought using the F-35. Most military heads think the F-35 out flies sliced bread which is our culture's best invention. We are all watching how the F-35I Adair fares against the Su-35 and S-400 combo in the Middle East. this proxy demonstration is watched by all talking heads of consequence having some military expertise. Can the F-35 beat the S-400 Russian missile battery Turkey opted for instead of a 100 F-35's it had on order? Turkey's F-35 order was canceled because the F-35 was too secret and advance to let the Russians have a crack at its technology when delivering the S-400 missile Turkey had bought. I'll say the S-400 is a poor man's answer to the F-35 capability.

What about the Russian Su-35 which will show up on a regional radar? Can the F-35 take it out? Yes and no and that is a financial answer. If users can guarantee an outcome then it will risk a 100 million F-35 against 40 million Su-35. However, if the Su-35 has a slim chance a nation will fall back when a SU-35 arrives in F-35 airspace as Israel has demonstrated. Short of all-out war the risk is too much to for an F-35 to strike the SU-35 with an S-400 missile battery within two hundred miles. Israel has rightly become prudent with its 18 F-35's on hand. Even with an Israel Adair load out and strategy an all-out war will bring on its F-35 beast mode which could decide how good the F-35 can be used against advanced adversary counter-strategy. 

Somebody has an educated guess how a conflict would turn out but there is a chance there would be losses on both sides. It all depends on how the military hand is played. Israel needs a full contingent to guarantee a win with 50 F-35's flying out of Israel's Nevatim airbase. The S-400 systems need neutralization early suggesting covert actions in play. Without the S-400 the Su-35 does not have a chance against the F-35 in a conflict. The risk factor of 100 million per airplane is mitigated. Israel's 5 billion American investment will have another 100 F-35 in play during an extended action thus guaranteeing an outcome is America's favor. I suspect S-400 secrets are now known at this time by western intel.

When Pigs Fly

The electric airplane will be an indicator that the battery has arrived for ground transportation. If a commercial airplane can fly 500 miles on a battery then a car can travel the same distance on the same battery. Technology creep is making a better storage battery for electrical motors with a quick recharge cycle making the battery a competitive alternative to fossil fuel engines. The world is only about 20 years away from an electrical storage solution for electric motors. Needed is a significant weight reduction in that battery and a short charging cycle for storing electrical power. The chemistry in theory has been found but the practicality  of making the alternative cheap enough has not been found. But a promise has been made it can be done so a forward push for an all electric powered aircraft goes forward.

The electric plane isn't just a far fetched idea it is what is needed to come and the necessity is the mother of the electric power travel. Elon Musk and Tesla is pushing this need in a awe inspiring journey but has it advanced far enough to entice "others" to try a concept at Universities across the world?

Cambridge start-up claims breakthrough electric car battery that can charge in 6 minutes

We’re working on methods to make powders that are scalable and where 1,000 tonnes could be made quite easily in factories. We have a prototype now, and are moving toward commercialization early next year. The tests have to be validated beforehand.

It's a matter of time and 20 years seems about right to drop fossil fuels from the Scheme of Things (SoT).

The SoT gauntlet has been thrown down and that is where we are today. Many ideas are pouring fourth and the solar system's sun is the key to unlimited electrical energy to power the planet in its endeavors.

The earth only has to supply plant based lubricants/plastics to make it all work. I'll be dead by the year 2040 but you may enjoy the change to save the planet from global warming.

Peregrine Missile Bang For Buck

Back in the day it was noted a 150 million dollar missile taking out a 40 million fighter is a bad trade-off. Well things have changed in the war strategy. Hence, the Peregrine missile by Raytheon as a medium range missile  taking out relatively inexpensive drones is the trade-off. This missile is not what it cost versus the cost of the target but the value of what it can do. If it can sink a $100 million in potential value or eliminate a billion in risk from drones, then the Peregrine missile is a great value when it strikes a drone. A drone is a poor man's sword and the Peregrine is a rich man's cane for a beating to be given. The F-35 can hold more Peregrine missiles than a AMRAAM held in a 4+ fighter. A silver bullet is better than a less expensive drone that can stop an oil field from delivery of world economy.

The Peregrine missile from Raytheon is such an investment. A million here or million there pretty soon terrorist are defanged and the defense of this nation is intact. Its cost will come down as thousands of Peregrines are produced in mass for a revolving delivery system at a jet near you. The versatility is the key. It can take out weapons from a drone or an adversary's attack jet on the same dime and with everything in between no longer in play on the battle space



It's six feet long and 150 lbs.

Flightglobal:

"The missile gains its manoeuvrability through thrust vectoring technology that is similar to what is used on the AIM-9X, says Noyes. He declines to say the missile’s exact range. The AMRAAM has a range of more than 17.4nm (32km), according to the USAF."

What Lies Beneath, The Max?

What is really underneath the Max's skin troubles the aviation world, Some old school stuff, cables and wheels could be what Boeing is passing for airplane scares sensibility into a corner. Come 1950 and the 737 is revolutionary. Come 2017, it crashes.  That is the Max problem in a nutshell. It merges the Wright Bros with the computer age. Boeing is paying everyone to pass its ideas through the gauntlet of scrutiny as it will get it flying sooner rather than later. Boeing has dithered its concept out there long enough to start the political round as the European governance is now seizing the FAA high ground away from them in the aviation realm.

The FAA took some Boeing money and now European influence can dominate the FAA. However, not so fast. This is just round one with aircraft disasters. The pendulum will swing back as greed and power always seems to dominate the human nature. It's a common element through history man has gone to the Max when money and power are at stake and Boeing or Airbus is no different with this matter. The great airplane crash will continue until man's bent towards optimal power continues.

Who Blinks First Boeing Or China?

It is not certain who has the upper hand Boeing or China. Boeing needs China badly and China needs airplanes from the duopoly of Airbus and Boeing. However, Boeing builds the best heavies flying when considering the 777 line of aircraft. But the duo aisle segment can't save an manufacturer alone in its quest of being number 1 in the world it needs its Max sold to china and there is the log jam for Boeing. No Ma and no money in asia and China can pressure Boeing in a trade war so to speak. It becomes a blinking game of who will give in first. Boeing must gets its single-aisle airborne again before it can start its manufacturing engine up to full capacity and China must buy airframes to supply its ever expanding market place. Boeing must move its single-aisle backlog Max 737 when established to fly again.

Who blinks first in this deadlock? Both will blink at the same time benefiting both Boeing and China mutually during the year 2020. China will order 200 airplanes from single-aisle to WB at a fire sale price as Boeing seeks to regain some dominance in aviation's world marketplace. The later half of 2020 is the target area in time for blinking at each other. Everything until then will be posturing and gamenship. China needs airplanes and Boeing is making it difficult for them to get them with all the mishap and development problems Boeing has experienced. Out of this should come some pretty nifty product for the world and China would like to show case a leading edge approach which should cause them to order Boeing in late 2020. The 777 will have completed testing by then and the Max should have taken off by then.

The caveat is Airbus is lurking behind the Boeing mishap draft waiting to pounce on opportunity. A little publicized fact is Airbus has its problems too with its family of aircraft. It has been lucky so far as it hasn't crashed one or two of its products through Airbus faults. Airplanes have become way too complex to assume they will fly without hiccups. The Boeing lesson is profit over safety is not a good path in this new era of aviation. Safety is the gold standard to profits and will remain so for some time to come. In the meantime, who blinks first has the greatest need to win the aviation war.

If The 737 Flies Fault Free For First Year In Service

Fault Free Flying is defined as no mishaps from a new architecture airplane since the Max groundings.

The sales on the Max should resume at a robust pace by 2021. Currently 5,000 Max units are in the que for order filling. Boeing must make a dent with Max production and delivery during 2020 in order to resume new sales and stop bleeding of its single-aisle bookings for the model type through cancellations.

Data supporting approval from governing bodies allowing the 737 to fly remains  the last hurdle to pass through its testing flights and ground validations for meeting governing body standards for any safe aircraft.   Particularly, the Max must demonstrate it has met and exceeded those contributing conditions as no longer existing which led to the recent two crashes during a six month period during 2018/2019.

If can do all this, then the Max should take-off as a remarkable airplane worthy of any fleet in the industry. However, a propensity of trained Max pilots must lead the resurgence. Flying an NG is not good enough to slide into a Max seat. A pilot must spend the required time training with a Max because of those crashes not because it flies like an NG. Once that standard is installed, Boeing is free to move the single-aisle market forward with abundant orders as the safest commercially sold airplane flying.

Flex Wings,Tweak Airframe, Pop Back Door, Check

Boeing has room to excuse as back door blows out during flex test on 777X wings. Oh well, another thirty days and a cool billion spent on the 777X before delivery. Boeing has run the gauntlet of time and money on its wild ride through the incompetent world of airplane development. It will fly once all the checkboxes are checked. Thanks Max for all your confidence shattering escapades of corporate greed payback is here.

Boeing's Ambitions Flies South During Its Winter

The 777X was supposed to have first flight in the fall of 2018. It is now a year late and no sign of a 777X first flight. The Max was to be long in service it still remains grounded! The result is a massive shift in Boeing resources and extending schedules further into the future. Result is customers grow impatience and must be motivated to hang-in there thinking kindly of Boeing's reputation and promise. Has Boeing out flown it technology, thus causing a corporate meltdown? "Ah, Yes", so says the industry.

Being a Boeing fan is tough to do today but the horizon is beginning to arrive as a morning dew refreshes the grass. The 777X will have its giant GE 9X sooner rather than later. The extra time on the 777X will make it a great airplane and no one will easily touch its over-all performance. The fewer heads working on the project than earlier in its progression has allowed order to return to the reality of building something totally new. The Max is a cooperate correction as it dumps all its Golden Parachutist out the building who lead the charge for having more with less and equaling a Puget Sound retreat and BBQ pit overlooking the sound.

The Max must be replaced with a clean sheet single -aisle starting yesterday. The resource scramble must end and putting out the 777X is job 1.

Boeing is suffering from a glutinous corporate addiction of making more with less when abandoning "the more" when ambitions has always worked well and now the middle of corporate hierarchy has trapped itself in its own puke on the less, (Max). The whole mess affects everything, resources, investing and competition. Boeing is in a fight for its corporate life and should act accordingly and abandon traditional corporate smugness during its operation for the next ten years.

Will The Max Come Back?

Yes and no! Yes it will to save Boeing, and no it won't pave way for its future. Originally, Boeing built a flawed 737 design from the sixties it was too low slung to the ground to allow flexibility and its been a mess to get the body in balance and now we have  a Max as its opus from the problem bin for which Boeing refuses to let go of. Perhaps this last episode is its last episode of problems. Can't tell how deep corporate stupidity will inhabit Boeing thinking out of its pride.

The time is now for Boeing to start its new single aisle campaign for 2030 and peddle the Max as a gap filler of technology and advancements over its family of aircraft. The Max or single-aisle family needs new geometry, engines and capacity for innovations to come. You can't keep painting lip stick on a pig and call it Max. Boeing broke the single aisle concept back in the 1960's and it just is now fifty years later expressing a need for a clean sheet in its class.

Boeing is searching for  a special single-aisle name going forward for which it can hang decades of marketing upon. Max the pig won't cut it, but but evolution says it all.