Corporate Cultural Attitude Smashes Supply and Demand Theorems

Back in the day when taking Econ 101, we learned about micro and macroeconomics. Somewhere in between the two topics up came the laws of supply and demand. However, the world industrial culture has changed and Boeing is that milestone which marks the changes of supply and demand laws.

If enough supply exists then prices drop. If enough demand exists then prices rise and a corporation can flourish under these models. What if supply and demand are no longer the theoretical engines which drive the market place and the Golden parachute replaces the laws of Supply and Demand? If that is true, then a MAX 737  happens. The balance sheet is no longer about the product but the corporation becomes just good enough, as the standard supporting retirement chain of growth for its execs. 

Decisions are made on both the 737 and 787 programs and possibly the up and coming 777X program.

The Golden retirement parachute holds the corporate high ground. If an airplane crashes while violating engineering laws of redundancy, then the money saved is plowed into someone's portfolio later on with a "who cares yawn". The 737 Max crashes are a model for corporate success thus violating the laws of supply and demand, but giving into a higher law of "just good enough", so a gold leaf parachute can be made for someone owning a mansion on Puget Sound.

Here comes the rub, future execs can expect dismal performances on its portfolios as Boeing comes back down to earth. The Golden Parachute will melt back to the old laws of supply and demand. Boeing execs just don't care at this time while "quality management" is the sacrifice for this sentiment. Debris found on completed aircraft; having single sensor technology, or using programming falling short of just good enough are the results. Boeing is taking a hard landing at this time and factory workers and its passengers are the victims emanating out of this new corporate culture super ceding supply and demand.

King 5 photo Boeing demand is frozen

737's parked as Boeing demand struggles to await its fixes and approvals.

Financial times photo

Airbus cannot supply fast enough for its demand.

The laws of supply and demand are now split between two giant aircraft makers. A supply sided Boeing and a demand strapped Airbus. Boeing executives are floating down from making just good enough mistakes with its key product in order to squeeze more post position income for themselves. 

They just don't care and they also think it's not my job to fix what the corporate culture gave them. If you think Airbus has escaped this quagmire then an observer is mistaken. Airbus has had a string of fortunate luck with its product and is not facing the same type of press Boeing experiences today emerging out of everything Boeing. Regulatory agencies are seeking higher ground as they have failed to do their job in the first place. Agencies have let the fox guard the chicken coop and now Boeing is getting a thorough beating for its corporate culture troubles. It wasn't good enough! Please cancel your dividends on the way out the Boeing big doors.

I Made It

Toughest way to lose weight is surgery.

One More Time and Then Jello For Lunch

Another surgery # ??? Hope to see you all later in the Blogosphere. Bless you, for following. I'll say something later if able otherwise enjoy the collective insight offered from this site since 2012. 

Is June 26, 2019 The 777X First Flight?

After a little sleuthing, it occurred to me that 777X's first flight could be next Wednesday, June 26, 2019!!!! Why ????

Try this Link;

Boeing 777X expected to fly on June 26, according to Emirates Airline president

and then this:

May 29, 2019, Reuters

Hey, what about the GE9X engine problems found in testing?

An engine  "part" wore abnormally after thousands of hours under engine distress. Other than that the engine met expectations. So the part fix will come by the end of the year while a lot of experts expect a 777X delay from this issue.

Not so fast my friend yesterday the 777X ran a runway test with GE9X engines.

Typically those kinds of tests come a week before first flight. A planeload of 777X engineers was onboard to measure everything 777X under the full engine power and full braking all day long! Just watch and smile when saying on June 26th, 2019. The 777X test vomit comet is ready to fly!

First Flight, yeah, and the press won't be there!

Middle Of Grounding 737 Max MoG

Since March 2019 the 737 Max has been grounded and parked. When airlines get excited about getting Max back in the air, I get excited. Air Canada the Max engine placement forward looks to get the Max flying at the end of summer, the earliest, and no later than October of 2019. Mark your Max calendar about September 20th, 2019 as a reasonable time frame for a return to the air for the 737 Max.

Some may even be quoted as saying the Max is becoming the world' safest aircraft given all this scrutiny. The inspectors, like FAA, are looking at everything and not just the MCAS system which is blamed for the two 737 Max crashes. The angle of attack is greatly affected by its engine placement and a propensity to stall since the center of the airplane gravity has moved forward from its forward engine placement.

Computer software kept Max from stalling with only one sensor in play. If the sensor was not functioning properly bad data went to the computer pushing its nose down while gaining speed to avoid stalling. Pilots who thought they were in control pulled up and saw speed indications were at maximum speed for the aircraft. The computer drove the aircraft downward while pilots could not solve a problem they had no training in. The Max just crashed at maximum speed into the earth/water. The computer allowed the pilots some upward mobility but then overrode pilot inputs until it crashed as the reports seem to document.

The solution is reported three fold but it is important to know there will be two sensors that must always function, agree and can be overridden by the pilot via switching off MCAS functions. The pilot is given ultimate control of the aircraft under all MCAS conditions at any time. The preventable stalling situation is only assisting pilots by its MCAS and adding new indicators informing the pilot of the aircraft flying conditions. MCAS will keep the MAX in flying balance but not fly the airplane. Boeing overbuilt and under built MCAS at the same time causing the crashes. It wouldn't let go of control when the one sensor it depended on failed. It overrode pilot control for a system or condition which didn't exist on the aircraft. It always was flying fast enough and there was no stall occurring. The aircraft didn't have a chance because a monstrous system was unchecked.

The outcome will be a thorough vetting of the Max making it the safest airplane humans can build from all the checking and changing that has occurred. It will be the first "world airplane" scrutinized by every world agency signing off on its airworthiness. The A320 will not of had this much testing, nor Embraer or a Bombardier. The 737 Max should fly with extreme confidence during 2019. Its been about 90 days since grounding and it will be another ninety-days before its return to service. It's the Middle of Grounding (MoG).

A strategy Of Iranian Implosion vs Explosion

The Us stepped back today and did not strike Iran for its shoot down of an American unmanned drone. The US has shifted strategy on Iran at the last moment. Let Iran implode and not explode under its own weight of insanity. Economic sanction in place and added measures will make Iran a society of Top Ramen noodles instead of Chicken rice pilaf.

Trump did not want Iranians to die for the sake of an unmanned drone shot down.

Instead, what is now learned is a bullet is now chambered for Iranian mishaps in its judgment.

If a tanker is struck or attacked or another US military asset is destroyed by Iran there should be Iranian loss of life for these misdeeds. Notice has been served it's up to Iran what happens next and has become Trump's position on the matter.

Rashness from Trump was abated in this last event from a drone downing as he pulled back 10 minutes before an American air strike was launched. Trump's already in place duel strategy of "exploding" or "imploding" gave way to implode. Iran will collapse as the nation suffers economic despair for its misdeeds. The handwriting is already on the wall and its people regardless of a religious bent is more deadly than an unweaponized US drone flying over water in the Arabian Gulf.

Iran can implode and the US can wash its hands from this demolition of an errant or rogue nation. The people of Iran should worry and take control of its own security away from Iranian ner-do' wells having a righteous cause for the reason for troublemaking. Imploding is the Iranian bomb. 

Pondering War With Iran

Will Iran collapse under its own weight and no shot will be fired? Or does the US Just intensify its military maneuverings? Both are probably true.

• For Trump to go all-in, he needs a US casualty and not a manless drone shot down.
• Trump needs prominent allies publically behind him before making an Iranian incursion.    (having Great Britain, India, and Saudi Arabia say go for it all at once is needed).
• Trump needs Iran to attack anything that resonates with American citizens at home.

• Iran needs to economically hang on for another Year.
• Iran must not allow its pride to pull the war switch.
• Iran doesn't have the chops to win a war with the US but can gain style points in the world court of opinion if it loses badly to the US.

What will happen is already happening, the CIA, Israel, and others are cutting the head of the Iran snake off and then looking like a victim. Just wait, Kharg island will blow-up one day and somebody will say, "oops, it wasn't me". No Iranian oil for ten years going to Russia and an Iranian economic collapse will happen not affecting the G-20 members since Iranian oil is not in its collective play. The world has enough non-Iranian oil at this time. Sorry, China and Russia or maybe North Korea will have to scramble. No war please, just mishaps!

Does Cancelling Turkey's F-35 Mean It is Not A Turkey?

The F-35 must really work well. That is why the US has canceled the US/Turkey F-35 program. It really works and Isreal objects to Turkey owing any of its types. The S-400 Russian deal is just a subterfuge to the real deal.  Turkey must have an F-35 and the US going way out of its sales momentum for its program sold Turkey the jet, even at all! 

Now it has backed out because its NATO partners object, "you can't have the S-400 and F-35 at the same time". 

The US already has the S-400 figured out. It is a potential risk that can be mitigated by missiles and space coordination.

Turkey almost pulled a fast one over the US's need for greed from selling procurement before it knew how the F-35 would become so key to American defenses. The F-35 is a controlled military substance and Turkey in a country dealing from a street corner.

Making A 797: Solves The Max Problem

If Boeing were to announce at Paris it will go forward with the 797 and fix the Max as a stop gap measure the 797, then makes more sense. Boeing bought Embraer and is now cornering the single-aisle market from that facet. The 797 could reach back to 200 seats supplanting the 737 Max 8, 9 and 10. Then it may go transcontinental with an upscale 797 while making the last of the 737 over the next 10 years. I look to see Boeing announcing the 797 at this years Paris Airshow in light of the Airbus announcement of the A320 XLR type. Airbus will momentarily seize the show with an announcement for a long-range single-aisle but in five years?

However, a bridge-building 797 covering the apparent aviation gap with twin aisles could stymy Airbus into a rethink of its aviation tactics concerning Boeing. A 797 twin-aisle would make commuting 3,000 miles a delight over any single-aisle considerations. An Embraer 150 seat single aisle could do a yeoman's duty at the single-aisle end of the market over the next five years. Embraer could build from 75 seats to 150 seat aircraft at this time and Boeing could sweep back the Market with a twin-aisle 200-270 seat aircraft which would fly over 4,500 miles, thus nullifying Airbus offering. Boeing could convert all those 737 Max 8 orders into 797-8 orders offering twin-aisle comfort, something Boeing has lacked during this century with its 737 families of aircraft. The flow would follow a naming convention e-jets from #175 to #200 and then the Boeing 797. The Max folds into a Boeing strategy of change erasing passenger memory over the Max crashes.

The 797 could sell over 5,000 units if it stretches back into the Max saga of aircraft starting with 175 seats going upward to 270 and then beating the A321XLR in any contest on seats and distance. Boeing would regain the comfort king title once again and still remain efficient at the same time. Embraer could sell 2,000 units and Boeing would bridge aviation's gap with 7,000 aircraft combined when entering the market place over the next ten years. The question would become, Max who? That is what Boeing needs for getting past its own big feet it finds itself stumbling upon. Does Boeing have the courage to reconfigure its line of aircraft? If it doesn't show courage for change then it will die an unsightly death and leave the world pondering about Airbus.

777X Completes The 777 Promise

When the 777-300ER came out in 1994 it promised a change in aviation's quest of a perfect blend of performance and value. It delivered. Now the 777X comes with 787 attributes and 777 visions for that initial aircraft. It has folding wings made of composite material and a wider body due to thinner outside walls engineered. It will fly up to 400 or more customers going over 7,000 miles with a 15% efficiency gain. After building 1,400 plus 777's a winning hand is presented to its customers across the globe. The natural outcome would be to replace the 1,400 777's with 1,400 777X's over the next 15 years. 

There will always be the Airbus A350-1000 crowd because of deal-making and commonality considerations but the 777X is set to rule aviation's traveling customers. A quieter engine with more technological improvement because of the 787 progress, suggests the 777X will meet its promise of changing the aviation world. The 777X will be a natural replacement for the much loved A380 just from its efficiencies, but it also will have A380 like space for its passengers. A double deck becomes more of a novelty than a functioning attribute. The 777X will fold in nicely into all A380 airport expansion slots. The 500 passenger capacity of the A380 is hard to fill at this time for traveling pairs of cities. The 777X makes more sense at 400 passengers. 

Even though Boeing has sold about 356 777X's it will most insistently sell double that amount after it enters service in 2020. The engine delay from GE is a lesson learned from the 787 programs. "Make it right", is more important to a company's future than just making it fast. Boeing is showing it can wait for it through the 777X program. Even though it will not have first flight by June 26, 2019, it will fly the first time before 2020. It may make first delivery during 2020. It all depends on getting right rather than just getting it. It will sell another hundred of its type before first delivery.