Su-57 and Turkey

Now that Turkey has sealed a deal with Russia for S-400 missiles it now approaches Turkey with a yet incomplete Su-57 advanced fighter jet. Knowing how difficult it is to bring a program to maturation as the F-35 continues to be plagued with lack of spare parts and wear and tear concerns the SU-57 has a more dubious pedigree to follow. Can Russia make the Su-57 whole in its respective economic environment?

The historical graph for Russian sustainability shows a bumpy line instead of a straight line its customers would hope to have for its forces. Turkey will buy the S-400 but the caveat with this purchase suggests Turkey is going down a bumpy road it now realizes it has chosen. Turkey losing the F-35, Turkey's loss of F-35 supporting role will have a vast impact for the man on the street in Turkey. The Su57 cannot fill that gap nor can it be sustained over the long haul as other defensive systems evolve based on what adversarial combatants offer against the F-35 plug and play platform.

Russia nor Turkey have the chops (industrial complex) competing in an arms race with the western powers for technological advancements.
   

Boeing Backed To The Max

A group of professionals, albeit a smaller group of people says, "the 737 Max program produced a flawed product". Boeing took risks to push through its single-aisle offering in a more rapid manner, ignoring the usual new airframe vetting process because the assumption it was built on the prior and successful 737 NG lessons learned would not come into play. However, there were a few new tricks built into the new Max which did not have an appropriate vetting process because of its own imposition of short time constraints for getting the Max into the market. The just good enough strain of thought took over the program. The second questions were not asked regarding it MCAS process or possibly other systems not exposed because a 737 Max has not fallen out of the sky yet from those other under-examined processes. The "What-ifs" on the 737 Max outnumber the "It-does". Flying the Max like an NG isn't a critical improvement.  It became a critical issue for those passengers who went down with the respective Lion Air and Ethiopian crashes on a 737 Max 8 when the MCAS system failed and overwhelmed unsuspecting pilots.

Boeing's dismissiveness for pilot training for something as small as an MCAS upgrade is a shocking response for protecting stockholders more than the passenger. The current condition for Boeing and its Max product has become an "all hands on deck" moment, as it now realizes this is a failed element in Boeing's own fiber. "We're just good enough and on the cheap" kills corporate aspirations. What comes out of all this is a face-saving new single-aisle model restoring confidence with its passenger and airline base. Of course, the course correction will be completed by 2030. That will be a clean sheet design rivaling the 787 or 777X progress Boeing will offer the 797 in this lineage changing operation with Embraer 100-130 passenger capacity, 737 140-200 seat capacity and a transitional 797 dual aisle 220-270 seat capacity. Boeing has lost its market punch over its sloppiness. It can only immediately get back in the game if its chief competitor has a meltdown both in the air and on the ground.

The biggest takeaway from this Max debacle is a safer airplane development process for the passenger and not the stockholder profit portfolio. Boeing forgot who it was building its aircraft for, the passenger or the stockholder. The top of the Boeing heap should have new faces once those golden parachutes are fitted for outgoing heads of the company. Once mentioned before, this is a necessary step for the healing process. There are no do-overs for those in charge when corporate philosophy produces a problematic Max for the sake of company profitability when pushing out a remake on the cheap. Yes, it costs billions to produce and make the Max 8, but it would have cost more if it went with a clean sheet effort for a new single-aisle. Now Boeing finds itself losing billions on the stock value it could have had even as the value climbs and then it will need to spend more billions with a clean sheet to right its ship in thus current aviation storm. 

Expect a new Boeing attitude out of these corporate mishaps. Moving too slowly after letting the 757 productions ceased was a big mistake. But pushing out a flawed-designed Max is a bigger mistake.

Leaving Turkey and Breaking Up Is So Hard To Do by Neil Sedaka

Neil Sedaka: Breaking Up Is So Hard To Do

The fly in the US military strategic footprint is the Turkey example. It is buying S-400 Russian missiles that can do much harm to the US F-35 program for which Turkey has become a key contributor to the program. "Think Tanks" have already a long time ago queried the question of what ifs? What if Canada drops out what if Turkey goes Russian or any other contributor to the F-35 program? Australia might want more vodka in its lunch program and will allow Russia in amongst the F-35 program it now hosts for Lockheed. All these types of scenarios have been vetted by American Think-Tanks a long time ago and now Turkey is playing its hand against NATO and the F-35 family of participants because it wants to assure a national defense at the lowest price. 

It has the US over a barrel so Turkey assumes. However, Think-Tankers have already written up a plan B when ignorance happens. Politics and defense make a strange bedfellow. Turkey wants the S-400 so bad it wants to save face in light of dishonoring its already established defense partners. Oh my, Turkey has a leader who takes a populist stand of showing up American resolve by purchasing the S-400 missiles from Russia. Cheers Turkey, you have come of age defending your turf with what your neighbors already have, Russian equipment. It is the third rate strategy while putting the US in its place as the bazaar cheers on Erdogan's mantle.

Surprise and disappointment have struct the US military complex right between the eyes. However, the Think-Tankers have already thought this awkward situation through. Close the F-35 program in Turkey costing its nation thousands of high-end jobs and redistribute this technology loss to other subcontractors through its vast network of players. 

Great Britain would like a bigger share of the tech work using its Thales or BAE customers or Lockheed. The question then becomes how long can Lockheed do without Turkey's contribution? The question long ago asked by thinkers caused a ramp-up of what-ifs with these scenarios. American resolve has allied with many of a subcontractor wanting more F-35 production. The Turkey deal was a quid pro quo, anyway. If turkey buys a 100 F-35 Lockheed then the US government will hire Turkish technology to do the work from Lockheed design and engineering work.

The F-35 is at the parts is parts stage at this point. A bad part happens and the F-35 program has its arms around the issue. Turkey is at a crossroads and it can't act clearly which is a danger for the whole F-35 program. It must "go" as an F-35 weak link. The decision was already made last year when the S-400 missile question came up! Find a replacement for Turkey's contribution to the F-35 program. This I assume is either far down that road or completed with a redistribution of F-35 work orders. I can't guess details of how the US/Lockheed has accomplished this change but the US wouldn't be talking so strongly about Turkey since the situation has changed in the F-35's favor. A production delay is probably down to six months if Turkey is booted out and no F-35's leave the US bound for Turkey.

The loss of a 100 F-35's sales to Turkey is an external problem not directly related the US aspirations. It was a quid pro quo deal in the first place. However, it is a big inconvenience already worked on for the last year. Erdogan's ship has already sailed. The F-35 will never return to Turkey and the F-35 already has the S-400 number before the first one even launched it its direction. The gain for Turkey is US inconvenience and saving Turkish face. The loss for Turkey is Nato, economy and its Turkish defense. The S-400 is no F-35.

Adjunct Bomb Truck Or Stealth?

That is the question. Boeing is keeping alive a serendipitous idea that an F-15X could force multiply the F-35 going into contested battle airspace during a conflict. 

Youtube Video of F-15's Tankers and F-35

F-35 foreground  F-15 background

Isreal is looking at replenishing its aging fighter wings of 30-40-year-old F-15's with either the F-15i-x   or a fleet of F-35's. The limited battle space around Isreal could be flooded with F-35's in an AWAC's capacity or with limited bomb loaded F-35's. With a Boeing F-15X on the board, it would and could partner with the F-35 both as a fighter interdiction model and bomb truck. It could take its cues from an F-35 somewhere in the limited battle space, but have unparalleled performances against Gen 4 attacking aircraft.  Remember, an F-15 has never lost a fight as of today's combat record.

Impressive at least. A new F-15i could fill a gap as a strategic weapon platform utilizing F-35 smarts over the wifi in the battle. If Israel does buy some F-15's then it has a big plan to bomb and fight its Meditterean counterpart into submission quickly and saving the F-35 for more technologically endowed targets like the S-400. Isreal does have a plan in place and its next fighter jet purchase will tell the observer what it will do going forward. 

The F-15x could and should make an F-35 everything it isn't. Fourth Gen aircraft is a participating reality over the next 30 years at least. A new F-15(i or X) now will be used. Israel can and will buy about 70 of this type and another 70 F-35I saturating its defenses with awesome firepower and battle management taking out Russias clients at will. The next Israeli buy is not a negative response to the F-35 program. The F-35 is so good Isreal does not need an exclusive fleet of F-35's it couldn't effectively use. It needs more tools than a Swiss Army Knife type of fighter. It is looking at a hammer during this go-round of buying defense equipment. Saying this much indicates about an order for 25 F-15X's or (i's) and another 25 F-35i's as mentioned at the top

Question? What's Boeing Next Big Thing?

Boeing was running rampant in the aviation world until the wheel flew off its juggernaut. Two 737 Max's crashed inside of six months and put the 777X project behind closed doors staying well out of sight. Having select Boeing employees doing the finalization to test flight work. It also caused the 797 into a dithering tailspin as no one then knew if the 797 projects would launch until Boeing got back on its feet and off its heels from the Max crashes. It looks like the 777X project, the 797 intended projects, and the 737 Max were all in some kind of "No Man's Land" in a short time span. Nothing is certain when its big plans will get back up and on Boeing's feet.

The FAA is doing its own damage control over the Boeing Max accidents as it delegated a usually nominal installation of an MCAS system on Boeing's shoulders before the accidents occurred later in service. Ouch, it looks suspiciously like a colluded relationship between the FAA and Boeing. There are other investigations needing clearing before Boeing can restart the 737 Max program for all its customers having grounded aircraft just sitting and not making the revenue for anybody. The problem presumed will take until Christmas to fix and resume business under new procedures. The 777X program will go off later in 2019 without having any setbacks. The Boeing inventory keeps flying without any mishaps and finally, the 797 is announced before year's end.

One big loss is Airbus will outproduce Boeing in 2019 making it the world's largest airplane producer. It will take Boeing two more years to reclaim the title of world's biggest when it will bring the 737 Max, 777X and the Embraer 190 to the market in 2021. Boeing will have to replace 737 Max sales canceled through uncertainty and production delays the upgrades are causing. Boeing may recover lost sales during this period if it can absolutely mitigate the MCAS problem as a noncontributor for future flight safety. Boeing's confidence in the market place and industry has reached its lowest point in the last 40 years. It has set back fully auto technology coming forward by about ten years.

Below are steps Boeing may be taking to regain the aviation high ground it once had.

1. Commit all hands on deck fix for the Max.
2. Win project Sunrise with the 777X and 787-9 as specializing for the mission
3. Bring the 797 to public reality once the 777X flies successfully during the first flight.

Boeing is now forced to bring the 797 into play with an effort for regaining any new and current customer's confidence for future sales consideration. While summarizing this year's tragic mishap that had occurred after both Lion Air and Ethiopian both lost their respective 737 Max 8's. The mishaps suggest a faulty MCAS sensor giving data inputs to automated control services for which pilots were unaware. 

Boeing has to establish that every system installed has a huge safety margin using duplicity of system controls, allowing the pilot never to be out of flying context from an automated system interaction. In other words, always allow functionality back to the pilot when systems can't work as intended.

The F-35 Is Germany's Turkey

Germany made a decision recently "not to buy the F-35". It was a leading European advise and consenter for having the F-35 for Nato equipment and now has turned 180 degrees going another direction opting for 4th Gen fighters built in Europe. Nato members are mystified by Germany's decision since they took German recommendations buying the F-35.

It becomes political not unlike the Erdogan's situation where Turkey opted out of the F-35 program over S-400 Russian missiles. Turkey got itself into a situation it "could not get out of".  It now finds itself on the verge of having Nato get out of Turkey. Politically speaking it will be Erdogan's downfall as Turkey's president. It will be a giant "cluster" for Germany to fly typhoons in the face of an F-35 squadron. Yes US resolve and compliance is that strong in both areas of influence. Russia is testing the American allies trees to see what nuts will fall out after shaking vigorously at its base. The "never mind" routine for both countries will go badly if either Germany or Turkey wants back into the F-35 program after a political debacle is realized in the respective countries. They were warned on how the regions must be defended and now it will be stuck with a cheaper paper bag to hold the defense together with Russian influence.

Trump is not a diplomat only a straight shooter with a six-gun from the hip. Germany and Turkey didn't get the Trump memo, "do what you promise not what America does". Even though Germany's righteous indignation may have been a feel-good moment, the pain that follows may be too extreme to bare in the long run, the F-35 is that good and the costs remain reasonable when it goes to 80 million per F-35A fighter jet. Spending decisions for every large entity like Germany and Turkey take years to formulate and a quick decision is made well in advance to not buy the F-35, like dropping the F-35 programs from its playbooks becomes a disaster at the political level.

Once the F-35 reaches full fruition in forty years, the short time political doers will long be gone and war will already have happened where the F-35 successfully was used and the typhoon could not stop an S-400 system from shooting that Typhoon down over Germany (by the year 2030). However, the NATO F-35 takes out the S-400 for Germany's sake. Isn't life grand when neighbors put the fire out when the homeowner uses its bedding to smother a raging fire instead of a fire truck like the F-35.

Just saying those F-35 critics have no vision for the program. Developmental stage for the F-35will end when it retires. Mitigating warfighter risk is the F-35 program it changes as technology changes meaning a hypersonic weapon deployed will have a countermeasure with the F-35  program in place. Technology will be a plug and play feature for the F-35. Germany's typhoon option or other 4th Gen fighters are hard-wired for the long haul as the battle space changes during a conflict. Remember how a Camillion changes its cover? Or a spider comes along with a new version of poison with no human resistance embedded in its skin? That's the concurrency idea of change but it has to perform a base quality which it finds itself at this time as in any other R&D project. 

The F-35 is not out of R&D nor will it ever become out of R&D and fixed design is the antithesis of the F-35 concept. It's too American looking beyond the horizon and Germany has bullet points guiding its thinking and Turkey has cultural dissonance with America to even consider the F-35 even though it has a technology stake in its making. 

America will have to do the F-35 alone and leave political thinking out of the formula to succeed.

Boeing Is Keeping Its Nose Down

...and to the grindstone fixing its MCAS rationale. Here are talking points from CT Post.

·       "Boeing has come under scrutiny in recent months for its failure to disclose the presence of the Maneuvering Characteristic Augmentation System (MCAS) on its Boeing 737 Max airliners. 

·       The existence of MCAS came to light only after the crash of Lion Air Flight JT610 in October.

·       On Monday, Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg explained why the company didn't disclose the existence of the system to pilots while challenging the media's characterization of MCAS as an anti-stall system.

·       "It's fundamentally embedded in the handling qualities of the airplane. So when you train on the airplane, you are being trained on MCAS," Muilenburg said. "It's not a separate system to be trained on."

So Boeing wanted the 737 Max to handle like the 737 NG and did not correct an automated anti-stall system from calamity. Go to the article's main link above for your further review. The unintended consequence of a nose down crash has caused the death of over 350 passengers and crews. Pilots were unaware of an automated system flying the airplane under certain conditions (like a failed MCAS sensor). Mainly, an MCAS sensor failure followed by an automated system fly-by -inaccurate data condition. The plane crashes while pilots cannot restore it to a flight worthy condition. The president of Boeing is scrambling for the tall grass to save the company.

The fix must go through a long process of flight testing and computer updates. When sensor (s) fail then the pilot is notified of the failure and given complete control of flying under this condition. Secondly, the pilot has a failsafe procedure to recover the aircraft through training if a sensor ever fails again. Finally, there is installed duplicity of sensors if one or both fail the pilot can recover. Automation is only as good as its design or program driving that design. Commercial aviation is not ready for drone travel at this time. A competent pilot with a strong flying skill set is required to override the intent of automation or its failure. In other words, a pilot must be given the mechanisms and ability to fly an aircraft in the event of these kinds of sloppy bottom line thinking. Going out of business is an option but killing innocent passengers is not an option. Boeing must reconcile this kind of corporate mentality towards passenger safety.

No matter how many times Boeing says it was "not our fault nor we didn't know. It is in a dangerous business and should take appropriate measures to assure its product is protected by every means possible. It lacked redundancy with its MCAS system and lacked a professional sense for installing a risky feature for the benefit of giving pilots a sense they are flying a prior model 737. Insanity is the mother of all bad ideas. The president of Boeing has just fallen on his sword, hoping not to bleed to death when he says the system is not an anti-stall mechanism but rather a pilot aid for making the Max feel like its flying like the 737 NG!

The Boeing Bong Show

Boink, Boeing just revealed its ugly inner child. A Corporation running for stockholder expectation way beyond its capability to build a safely configured aircraft. When did Boeing go Boink? Back when the 757 was shelved and the 787 was promoted as the next big thing. It was about the stockholder and not the passenger hence two 737 Max bite the dust for some lackadaisical MCAS system which couldn't see itself out of a Max nosedive. Boeing has been called out, but its stock remains a strong happening even with mishap amiss from its chief moneymaker, the 737 Max family.

Okay, got that Boeing bashing out of the way. Capitalism is not defined by the stockholder value but a better product for the best price in the market and Boeing slopped out a stockholder pleasing MCAS system. No one had an idea of how it would affect the 737 Max during an electronic failure with the angle of attack mechanism. Let the stockholder beware, your worst enemy is a company who values investment over the product soundness. Having cheaper straw placed in a cheaper broom is not always in your best interest nor does it help someone's Golden Parachute. Cheaper straw may bring those parachutes down to earth harder than a faulty MCAS system which no one knows anything about. To all those workers plugging and playing the 737 Max to the flight line, I'm sorry!

The top 100 people at Boeing Co. should now jump out the side door of its cargo planes. It's do-over time back at the barn, and that's where this saga is headed before another golden parachute is popped out the corporate backpack. Bring on the Super Pax or the next iteration of a single-aisle aircraft. Either its called Pax for the passenger for just old fashion "peace". The big difference that is made for the customer and not the stockholder. The Pax entry into Service will come about 2032 as Boeing tries to find its corporate soul in the process. The expectation is not stock value but just plane old survival as a big world market player.

Welcome To The Continuous Taxpayer.

Points to ponder.

• Taxpayer's don't really cover Government costs or spending
• Continuous is defined as an F-35 frame with continuous systems, development, and weapons added
• The F-35 is a continuous cost which The Taxpayer can't cover
• Like all systems before it, the F-35 will be on a continuous flight trajectory
• The F-15-EX is not the last F-15 model built by Boeing
• Continuous is the world's currency
• World's Currency is a synonym for US Dollar 

The F-35 is the most expensive aircraft system ever built. The US taxpayer believes it pays for this system for the defense of this country. The F-35 costs exceed what taxpayers can contribute. A blank check supports what the world needs as a "defense weapon". The F-35 is becoming that weapon and it will continue to add new capabilities into infinity and beyond on its frame.

A new airframe will be built called Gen 6. It will house better all of the F-35 attributes, only in a more advanced and expanded frame, thus continuing the costs of air defense for the world. A Gen 6 will go Mach 2+. It will have new coatings embedded on its skin to defeat electronic surveillance (radars et al)  without reapplying new coats of an electronic deflection matrix as found on the F-35. A Gen 6 will be called something beyond the F-35 in a numerical sequence but it is conceptually a repurposed F-35 strategy. An all-purpose and all systems superior fighter for every military branch. Aviation wings will need flying bomb trucks like an F-15 EX  complimenting the F-X progressions. 

The cost will continue as war never ceases its march on humankind. War is a never-ending element for humanity. Making a profit follows war before and after its march towards another war 's end and its cause of war. The cause of war is the human ego found in human beings. Not affording systems of war is more deadly than the weapons used. War is never fought without the perception of wealth or power in play. Kim Jung Un has a big ego. Donald Trump has a big ego!

War is the battle of egos (see WWI and WWII). Expect a war with Gen 6 warplanes.

Boeing's Blue Berry Bash

"Holy trash can Batman", there are candy wrappers under the 787's insulation wraps. A shaving here and a  shaving there adds up quickly, as in getting it out the door yesterday. Twelve hours sitting in one spot leave your tools and then go home. Wait the next shift is already working and it's not their job to pick up after 1st shift mess this plane is leaving in five hours and so goes the Blue Berry Bash at Boeing's profit first for stockholder meetings. It is a margin driven company. Alfred E Newman may lose his job at the top of the heap but nobody will be there to empty the trash.