Recently the Max 8 crashed again! No BIG business stalls on its responsibility, because it can. The once and mighty FAA balks at a conclusion but has relinquished that position with a US grounding proclamation for the Max 8 as pending lawsuits gain momentum over the latest crash. Whose in control of this matter? Money!
The Max wet blanket becomes a one by one airline pronouncement of "ours is Okay, "let's fly!"
A bad sensor, a bad DIY 737 Max 8 manual, and poor maintenance practices contribute to a disaster but money stands-by and watches. One by one the airlines grasp at staying afloat during this latest mess. Somehow a solution emerges after money is protected. The wet blanket is removed and we all get along.
Friday, March 15, 2019
Sunday, March 10, 2019
Second Crash Tightens Boeing's Noose
A second 737 Max 8 crash in six months has placed a boot on Boeing's aviation neck for which a noose can slip over. Ethiopian Airways lost 157 today in a Max Crash.
157 dead as second Boeing 737 MAX-8 crashes after take-off
Not recanting details of this current devastation because investigations have just started and all loved ones have not been notified, it indeed places Boeing's 737 endeavors under the microscope. If Boeing is the contributing factor then a reexamination of its recent 737 Max upgrade is indeed the focus and results could possibly change the dynamics of the aviation market place which is not the main concern at this time.
The Lion Air crash last fall of 2018 could be a segway to this crash but so little is known at this time. Boeing cannot let the truth about its product be a dismissive topic. Whether an obvious mishap from other causes is found in the little remaining debris or a Boeing oversight issue remains to be discovered. A tragic day for the passengers and its airline. Another truly black eye for the industry which has many chapters of loss of life following to this point in history.
Friday, March 8, 2019
Airbus Nets -99 Orders By The End Of February 2019
"Oh, my" is an old Dick Enberg exhale in a sporting event when something happens. Well, something did happen at Airbus during February. It took in 4 orders from its upstart Bombardier extension which didn't exist at this time last year for Airbus. It also noted from its own website it had negative net orders of -99 frames suggesting a shrinking order backlog and book. Maybe Boeing will book 100 VietJet Max, 10 Bamboo 787's and 18 777x, thus shrinking the Airbus backlog lead by a block of 128 orders with these three customers mentioned and depending on finalization, that is a Boeing necessity.
Airbus is suffering an order payback slump at the start of 2019. A slump is a slump and the year is long, but none the less Boeing has loaded the bases with no outs and the clean-up batter at the plate. "It just has to hit it out of the park."
The steady backlog shrinkage gap from 2018 and so far in 2019 promises Boeing could regain the top billing by 2020 if it announces the 797 and will indeed be built as an NMA. It has its production chops going with a pedal to the metal attitude. It will produce its 787 at 14 a month and go long with 55 Max a month during 2019. It has an opportunity that its 767 productions will beat the A330 production of the same genre found in the medium WB class. The 767 is a tanker and freighter model from its prior 767 passenger fame.
Airbus at the end has an undelivered backlog of 7390 including the recently acquired Bombardier backlog. Boeing's February number is not published but it had at the end of January about a 5,800+ unit backlog or an Airbus 1,600 unit lead which surely is changing in Boeing's favor once its end of February numbers are posted next week. Remembering production crunches out cash and orders establishes a revenue recognition type in accounting. The churning of orders and deliveries is an interesting study. Airbus has a flat spot so far in 2019, which could significantly change at the next big airshow.
Airbus is suffering an order payback slump at the start of 2019. A slump is a slump and the year is long, but none the less Boeing has loaded the bases with no outs and the clean-up batter at the plate. "It just has to hit it out of the park."
The steady backlog shrinkage gap from 2018 and so far in 2019 promises Boeing could regain the top billing by 2020 if it announces the 797 and will indeed be built as an NMA. It has its production chops going with a pedal to the metal attitude. It will produce its 787 at 14 a month and go long with 55 Max a month during 2019. It has an opportunity that its 767 productions will beat the A330 production of the same genre found in the medium WB class. The 767 is a tanker and freighter model from its prior 767 passenger fame.
Airbus at the end has an undelivered backlog of 7390 including the recently acquired Bombardier backlog. Boeing's February number is not published but it had at the end of January about a 5,800+ unit backlog or an Airbus 1,600 unit lead which surely is changing in Boeing's favor once its end of February numbers are posted next week. Remembering production crunches out cash and orders establishes a revenue recognition type in accounting. The churning of orders and deliveries is an interesting study. Airbus has a flat spot so far in 2019, which could significantly change at the next big airshow.
Roast Turkey At S-400 Degrees
Turkey and American Technology soon part. Turkey has climbed out of the frying pan and into the oven with the US arms procurement. Russia sold them some S-400 missiles under the US complaining warnings to do that little thing. Now America is making a moral choice of taking the money for 100 F-35's or running to the next buyer who will comply with the terms of ownership.
Mainly not giving away national secrets of the US to Russia as part of the deal. Money does not equate to American freedom. Turkey does not care about America's freedom. So for a mere $10 billion dollars. America's freedom is not for sale anywhere on this planet and Lockheed needs to explain why selling Airplanes like the F-35 adjacent to Russia is a high-risk venture is the point of the F-35, so investors must take a ten million dollar hit collectively as new buyers for the F-35s are found.
DON't SELL The TURKS The F-35!
My freedom is worth more than a mere hamburger drive-through with the family for $0.03 cents a person. Just think of Russia looking at the patriot missile system under programmers stare. Just think of an S-400 bringing down the F-22, F-35 and a trillion dollars of your Tax dollars in one show of force. What is at stake here is more than pride, it's your life that is on the line. Friday night with your closest friends at the steak house is out when the S-400 nullifies all of our collective sacrifices. Sounds a little drama doesn't it. However, Turkey played its ace already and bet against American freedom. Bad move since America cherishes its freedom more than apple pie itself. The trade is for one aircraft carrier worth of F-35's for twenty years of US secrets in one play. The answer must be a sound NO! A mere 100 F-35 for the Turks is not what the F-35 was built for, it was built for defending our freedom. Turkey has made its S-400 bed now lie in it.
Mainly not giving away national secrets of the US to Russia as part of the deal. Money does not equate to American freedom. Turkey does not care about America's freedom. So for a mere $10 billion dollars. America's freedom is not for sale anywhere on this planet and Lockheed needs to explain why selling Airplanes like the F-35 adjacent to Russia is a high-risk venture is the point of the F-35, so investors must take a ten million dollar hit collectively as new buyers for the F-35s are found.
DON't SELL The TURKS The F-35!
My freedom is worth more than a mere hamburger drive-through with the family for $0.03 cents a person. Just think of Russia looking at the patriot missile system under programmers stare. Just think of an S-400 bringing down the F-22, F-35 and a trillion dollars of your Tax dollars in one show of force. What is at stake here is more than pride, it's your life that is on the line. Friday night with your closest friends at the steak house is out when the S-400 nullifies all of our collective sacrifices. Sounds a little drama doesn't it. However, Turkey played its ace already and bet against American freedom. Bad move since America cherishes its freedom more than apple pie itself. The trade is for one aircraft carrier worth of F-35's for twenty years of US secrets in one play. The answer must be a sound NO! A mere 100 F-35 for the Turks is not what the F-35 was built for, it was built for defending our freedom. Turkey has made its S-400 bed now lie in it.
Thursday, March 7, 2019
Maybe The 797 Will Go Double Bubble
An old Boeing concept which Embraer employs on its own aircraft makes Boeing's next 797 a double trouble of borrowing one of its own designs having Embraer engineering behind it. Just saying, the 797 is building passenger space while having enough seats for airlines to make money. Boeing's recent Embraer acquisition was no fluke and its 797 concepts of toying are not accidental with the Embraer on board with Boeing's design engineers. Something has got to give and it may be double bubble trouble slowing the works a little bit.
Wednesday, March 6, 2019
There are Two 797's In The Works
The two in mind would be called the 797R- and 797I-. One, the "R" version would seat 250 or so passengers and would be a high density step up from single aisle for any regional travel. The "I" version would have a range for going Intercontinental or about 6,000 miles with 220 passengers. Both would be separate designs built on a dual aisle and same engine supplier basis.
Why? Boeing is already building the paper airplanes while lining up "key" suppliers before an announcement, hence the 2020 time extension rather than announcing in 2019. The result is still scheduled for 2025 for the first delivery of one type. Boeing is working on this concept as we speak and will keep secret its true intent. The Asian community will support the high-density "R", or regional type while Europe will eagerly focus on the "I" type or known as the Intercontinental. It stands to reason Boeing is truly wrestling with pulling the wool over Airbus' eyes with these transitional concepts. The Northwest should build the "R" type and Charleston will do the "I" type. Boeing is working on who will do what before committing to the two programs. It needs an engine maker, and it needs dual program management.
This would suggest that "ducks must be in a row and accounted for" before making such a brash announcement. Little lead time is given for an Airbus response since Boeing knows Airbus intel is hard at work playing with Boeing for its own benefit. The A321NEO program cannot address what Boeing will propose with one airplane type so it will go for the "twofer" having a 797R and a 797I, pleasing customers on both sides of the world at the same time. It would be offering, similar to, making the 737-8 version at the same time as a -10 version is offered but in one announcement.
Boeing took five years to go through the Max type airplane from a 7-10. This is a start of two programs covering the proverbial gap found from the 737 single-aisle to the 787 dual aisles. The four thousand mile airplane segment which Boeing is addressing would expand to a 6,000-mile unit segment thus encroaching upon both the 787-8 and the 737 Max 10 programs, and both are either filled or are filling rapidly suggesting an overlapping segment for the 737, 797 and 787 programs.
Boeing, at this time, is slow to act on this NMA market because it is more than just filling the gap, it is redesigning its market approach for current and potential customers. If it guesses wrong, Boeing will need decades to recover its scheme in the market place and Airbus will suffer. If it guesses well, then Boeing will hit it out of the park as a home run and Airbus will not recover even with decades of time and money on its hands. Boeing is doing something bigger than an NMA slot filler. It's trying to complete itself with this decision.
Why? Boeing is already building the paper airplanes while lining up "key" suppliers before an announcement, hence the 2020 time extension rather than announcing in 2019. The result is still scheduled for 2025 for the first delivery of one type. Boeing is working on this concept as we speak and will keep secret its true intent. The Asian community will support the high-density "R", or regional type while Europe will eagerly focus on the "I" type or known as the Intercontinental. It stands to reason Boeing is truly wrestling with pulling the wool over Airbus' eyes with these transitional concepts. The Northwest should build the "R" type and Charleston will do the "I" type. Boeing is working on who will do what before committing to the two programs. It needs an engine maker, and it needs dual program management.
This would suggest that "ducks must be in a row and accounted for" before making such a brash announcement. Little lead time is given for an Airbus response since Boeing knows Airbus intel is hard at work playing with Boeing for its own benefit. The A321NEO program cannot address what Boeing will propose with one airplane type so it will go for the "twofer" having a 797R and a 797I, pleasing customers on both sides of the world at the same time. It would be offering, similar to, making the 737-8 version at the same time as a -10 version is offered but in one announcement.
Boeing took five years to go through the Max type airplane from a 7-10. This is a start of two programs covering the proverbial gap found from the 737 single-aisle to the 787 dual aisles. The four thousand mile airplane segment which Boeing is addressing would expand to a 6,000-mile unit segment thus encroaching upon both the 787-8 and the 737 Max 10 programs, and both are either filled or are filling rapidly suggesting an overlapping segment for the 737, 797 and 787 programs.
Boeing, at this time, is slow to act on this NMA market because it is more than just filling the gap, it is redesigning its market approach for current and potential customers. If it guesses wrong, Boeing will need decades to recover its scheme in the market place and Airbus will suffer. If it guesses well, then Boeing will hit it out of the park as a home run and Airbus will not recover even with decades of time and money on its hands. Boeing is doing something bigger than an NMA slot filler. It's trying to complete itself with this decision.
Tuesday, March 5, 2019
Boeing.com For The Live 777X Launch
On March 13, 2019, Boeing will launch its 777X which could be found on The Boeing Company Facebook site or on Boeing.com under its reveal. tab or another I've found may have a link for the 777X reveal.
https://www.boeing.com/777x/reveal/
Go to Boeing.com to find time and link is the best advice for the 777X. At this time poor communications exist for the live event, which is a sweet deal before waiting for a youtube after the event posting.
So try the above link for further live viewing opportunity but time has not been set unless I missed something. A bad effort by news or Boeing for finding a connection to the event.
Somebody, please post here for accurate details and a link in a response section And I'll repost this to the blog for those who want to know the time-link information for the live event on March 13, Wednesday 2019.
https://www.boeing.com/777x/reveal/
Go to Boeing.com to find time and link is the best advice for the 777X. At this time poor communications exist for the live event, which is a sweet deal before waiting for a youtube after the event posting.
So try the above link for further live viewing opportunity but time has not been set unless I missed something. A bad effort by news or Boeing for finding a connection to the event.
Somebody, please post here for accurate details and a link in a response section And I'll repost this to the blog for those who want to know the time-link information for the live event on March 13, Wednesday 2019.
Monday, March 4, 2019
3-13-19 = 777X
"Roll out the X and have us a Barrel of fun" song lyrics from the old Heidel Haus days.
Yes, the 777X roll out date has been leaked by Boeing on social media.
Yes, the 777X roll out date has been leaked by Boeing on social media.
Thursday, February 28, 2019
Project Sunrise A Boeing Necessity
Boeing is hoping Qantas Company will buy the 777-8X for its Project Sunrise selection for its Qantas Airlines. A win here for Boeing would be for bragging rights which it would relish having over Airbus. The potential deal is advertising money on the table so prices on a fleet order will plunge per unit ordered by Qantas at the end of its. project. The 777-8X is about 375 million as is but the price could plunge as this is a high profile deal for this type of widebody. Airbus, on the other hand, is modifying its A350 proposal to go the distance with passengers near 300. But Boeing has the wings and that GE9X engine.
The 777-8X is configured for about 353 seats, but distances and hours should give passengers more space and airlines more distance it requires. Both makers have formidable offers but since BA just ordered 18/24 777Xs the emotional momentum has shifted to Boeing's winning the Project Sunrise offering.
The 777-8x will drop off about 75 passenger seats, down to a sensible 275 passenger "load". It will have the folding 235-foot wing which Airbus will not match unless it wants its A350-1000 to fit into abandoned A-380 terminal slots found in about 60 airports around the world. The 777X wing will fit anywhere the 787 flies. Qantas is keen on Airbus at this time just for pricing advantages over Boeing's offer. Remember the advertising account and what a Boeing 777X selection would do for future sales?
Price will drop to about 200 million per unit making Alan Joyce a little more comfortable with big ideas backed by investors. The next question is how many orders. That discussing has already happened with the two big makers in the running. Nothing less than 20 units ordered would do for any manufacturer. I would guess the orders would flow as follows for the winner. Qantas must order 20 with a 20 option in place for ten years. Or in other words about 17 billion at list prices before discounts.
Aviation wars are a funny business and it's hard to predict how things will work out for any maker. But Boeing is more able to drop price than Airbus. It's more able to morph the 777-8X into a globe trotter as it will have slightly more range than the A-350-1000 configured for Project Sunrise. Boeing knows Alan Joyce wants 300 seats for this venture but "close" to 300 seats is what either maker will offer. A Boeing deal will be made because Boeing has the Wings and the Engines. Both makers can do the internal amenities for passengers, including a boudoir for most. Boeing can and will go 9,000 miles easily where Airbus will have to trick out an offering with more fuel and fewer seats to make that range.
Airbus will have to go 250 seats with its A-350-1000 and some extra fuel tanks to boot. Allan Joyce may think 250 seats is not profitable and what he had in mind. He wants those 300 seats! Ticket prices need to fall to fill 300 seats to go 9,000 miles each time. Going from Sydney Australia to London, westward, against the wind on most days is difficult and dangerous when the weather changes mid-flight. The aircraft may have to fly around a bit and burn more fuel and serve more amenities when it stays aloft for 21 hours instead of 20 hours. Egads!
The time on board will necessitate space and kiosks for the passengers and crews as well. People need to move around, sleep and browse about the cabin for 20 hours of duration. A seat can only stay so long at the movies or on the web. The amenity offering will be an interesting proposition most air travel people only think of after 12 hours in the air. Sleep is one part of that equation as is seat time. The open variable is plan B. Browsing the cabin.
The 777-8X is configured for about 353 seats, but distances and hours should give passengers more space and airlines more distance it requires. Both makers have formidable offers but since BA just ordered 18/24 777Xs the emotional momentum has shifted to Boeing's winning the Project Sunrise offering.
The 777-8x will drop off about 75 passenger seats, down to a sensible 275 passenger "load". It will have the folding 235-foot wing which Airbus will not match unless it wants its A350-1000 to fit into abandoned A-380 terminal slots found in about 60 airports around the world. The 777X wing will fit anywhere the 787 flies. Qantas is keen on Airbus at this time just for pricing advantages over Boeing's offer. Remember the advertising account and what a Boeing 777X selection would do for future sales?
Price will drop to about 200 million per unit making Alan Joyce a little more comfortable with big ideas backed by investors. The next question is how many orders. That discussing has already happened with the two big makers in the running. Nothing less than 20 units ordered would do for any manufacturer. I would guess the orders would flow as follows for the winner. Qantas must order 20 with a 20 option in place for ten years. Or in other words about 17 billion at list prices before discounts.
Aviation wars are a funny business and it's hard to predict how things will work out for any maker. But Boeing is more able to drop price than Airbus. It's more able to morph the 777-8X into a globe trotter as it will have slightly more range than the A-350-1000 configured for Project Sunrise. Boeing knows Alan Joyce wants 300 seats for this venture but "close" to 300 seats is what either maker will offer. A Boeing deal will be made because Boeing has the Wings and the Engines. Both makers can do the internal amenities for passengers, including a boudoir for most. Boeing can and will go 9,000 miles easily where Airbus will have to trick out an offering with more fuel and fewer seats to make that range.
Airbus will have to go 250 seats with its A-350-1000 and some extra fuel tanks to boot. Allan Joyce may think 250 seats is not profitable and what he had in mind. He wants those 300 seats! Ticket prices need to fall to fill 300 seats to go 9,000 miles each time. Going from Sydney Australia to London, westward, against the wind on most days is difficult and dangerous when the weather changes mid-flight. The aircraft may have to fly around a bit and burn more fuel and serve more amenities when it stays aloft for 21 hours instead of 20 hours. Egads!
The time on board will necessitate space and kiosks for the passengers and crews as well. People need to move around, sleep and browse about the cabin for 20 hours of duration. A seat can only stay so long at the movies or on the web. The amenity offering will be an interesting proposition most air travel people only think of after 12 hours in the air. Sleep is one part of that equation as is seat time. The open variable is plan B. Browsing the cabin.
British Airways Buys Boeing 777X Big
Instead of Airbus turning the tables on Boeing, the table turned on Airbus as BA choose the 777-9X in this go-round of orders. The BA orders righted the 777X program for an on-course production flow as now Boeing will commit more to the 777X program and more risk can be taken with its NMA announcement coming in 2019. The order basic involves 34 747 retirements by 2022.
British Airways Score Card:
Net growth of 26 WB frames
The retiring of the 747 fleet nets a fleet increase
Total British Airways value of Boeing's 777X aircraft at list price 18.5 billion including firm and optioned aircraft for 42 units.
BA has already in the fleet or ordered WBs per below chart.
British Airways Score Card:
- (-34), 747 retired by 2022.
- 18, A350-1000 booked with delivery beginning in 2019
- 18, 7779x booked with starting delivery in 2020
- 24, 7779X Optioned for after 2022
Net growth of 26 WB frames
The retiring of the 747 fleet nets a fleet increase
Total British Airways value of Boeing's 777X aircraft at list price 18.5 billion including firm and optioned aircraft for 42 units.
BA has already in the fleet or ordered WBs per below chart.
Wikipedia BA Fleet Chart
-1st2B PEc Ec Total
| Boeing 777-200 | 3 | — | 17 | 48 | 24 | 127 | 216 | To be replaced by 777-300ER[138][139] |
| Boeing 777-200ER | 43 | — | 14 | 48 | 40 | 124 | 226[140] | |
| — | 48 | 24 | 203 | 275 | ||||
| — | 32 | 52 | 252 | 336[141] | ||||
| Boeing 777-300ER | 12 | 3[142] | 14 | 56 | 44 | 185 | 299 | |
| Boeing 787-8 | 12 | — | — | 35 | 25 | 154 | 214 | |
| Boeing 787-9 | 18 | — | 8 | 42 | 39 | 127 | 216 | |
| Boeing 787-10 | — | 12[143] |
TBA
| |||||
Just a quick summary of the BA fleet size concening Boeing product. It could replace many of its 777-200ERs with 777X currently from the MOU (24 LOI). Knowing this order will take about 5 years to complete 18 777X's and if the 777X meets and exceeds expectation in service Boeing could expect another 50 of its 777X to be ordered by 2025 for a complete fleet renewal of its total 777 classic version 777's.
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