Understanding An Automated Airline Disaster, A Sunday Read

This is a good read and it should cause everyone reading to ponder how the Lion Air should of, could of, and would of, prevented its horrific catastrophic 737 Max Crash. Boeing is setting a scary standard. A dependency on letting the systems fly and not the pilot in certain situations. It's a valid debate and it needs your thoughts.

Boeing has a technological fix on the future of flight and it should be asked, what if the failsafe systems fail?

Boeing Photo of The 737 Max Flight Deck

The National Business:

Cockpit automation may be jetliners' Achilles heel

Why flyadeal is a Big Deal To Boeing

Boeing just made a deal with flyadeal for 30 of the 737 Max 8 with an option for 20 more. This is a big deal because Airbus was in the hunt on this one and had a firm foot wedged into flyadeal's front door. Boeing won one for the Gipper. It beat the ever popular A320 on this one. It could mark a turning point in the sales war for the single-aisle, as customers have had plenty of time to evaluate both the NEO and the Max.

Boeing just announced it had firmed up with another airline, Green Africa for fifty Max 737's. Boeing may have turned the tide a while back and it's just now revealing a new trend. Maybe Max is a better aircraft for many reasons. Boeing is in a strong position to bait its customers with lower pricing than Airbus because it has been at this a while longer and it now can undercut the competition.

The trend line has bolted in Boeing's direction for single-aisle sales at this year's end 2018. A curious idea is that Boeing may have pocketed several other sales orders it will not disclose until later. It may wait until the year closes before another success is notched in its single-aisle belt. Each airplane maker knows what the others book will look like on early January's tally sheets. 2018 is setting a new trend and it remains to be seen if Boeing can sustain that trend throughout 2019 having higher single-aisle orders than Airbus. If it does outdo Airbus during 2019, then Boeing has breached the Airbus single-aisle stranglehold and the NMA will be announced sooner rather than later. This would become a decade's long setback for Airbus. Yeah, this week's deal is a big deal!

Did Boeing Slight Lion Air Over 737 Max Crash?

Lion Air is trying to cancel billions in orders over a perceived Boeing slight to its reputation when its newly acquired 737 Max 8 crashed shortly after take-off killing all 189 on board. Boeing wanted nothing to do with the air incident in order to keep selling more Max aircraft and without having customers question the aircraft. Lion Air felt the dismissive nature from Boeing towards Lion Air was enough to stop doing business with Boeing.

Boeing is repairing the damaging threat from Lion Air by selling more 737 Max than what's on backorder for Lion Air's fleet.  In other words, it is moving on while Lion Air's principle stakeholder and founder is trying to throw Boeing under its bus. No pun intended. However, it isn't as simple as getting out of a contracted firm order. Boeing will legally charge Lion Air money from canceled firm orders. It will cost Lion Air more money to get out of Boeing as a loyal customer.

An observer can offer solutions for either player at this time as Lion Air is shouldering the immediate liability with its flying customers and surviving families. Boeing might be exposed to lack of confidence for its 737 Max and then lose sales from that customer position. Boeing would rather have Lion Air eat the consequence of the crash and sell more airplanes to other and having Lion Air implode. 

Lion Air does not want to implode and would like Boeing to die in its behalf as a Boeing problem. Losing sales to Lion Air may be the death throes of a dying airline position. They can't buy all the airplanes they ordered because of the crash. It happened to Pan Am after Lockerbie, Scotland's 747 crash. It can happen to Lion Air. The owner of Lion Air knows this and perhaps the early news is that Lion Air is about to shoulder this blame and it will cause its house of financial cards to fall as a result. That is why Boeing is calling in all sales deals at the end of this year. It must find about $22 billion in airplane sales order to replace an air loss from Lion Air.

If the crash investigators find a jointly responsible series of errors Boeing is too big to fail. but Lion Air isn't because there is enough evidence to point fingers at Lion Air and not enough finger pointing for Boeing's position. There are too many Max's flying without a history of problems. There are too many flight crews who have not made bad decisions while flying the 737 Max. 

There simply is not enough supporting evidence to overcome Lion Air's position of a lack of professional acumen. Lion Air is on the way of becoming one of the crash victims. It may not overcome the slippery slope of paying out so much money to lawyers over this matter. Boeing has its lawyers too! If Boeing does sell another 100 737 Max by the of the year they may horribly say. Lion who? At this point, it doesn't bring back Lion Air's casualty of its customers. It's a terrible consequence of the business. 

Boeing did not slight Lion Air over the crash. It is defending itself from another entity's problems while quietly fixing any problems with its product. Every traveler must understand any conveyance is a matter of risk regardless of how many times, it works correctly. Even going downstairs in the morning can not turn out well. The Lion Air crash brings us back to reality, not everything works right everytime and that's the reality that Lion Air is now facing.

SR-71 Stories

On youtube, you can watch SR-71 videos of its exploits but sometimes hearing the real stories from it designers and pilots are more effective than a youtube video about the SR-71. I have written before on this blog about the SR-71. But memories stay firm. It out flew the North Vietnamese flying Telephone Poles. It caused Mig 25's to explode its engines. It caused a waste of missiles and aircraft flying out of Libya over the Mediterranean Sea. The story goes on and then you hear it again on youtube in a watered down version. It was America's last great jet that did not carry weapons.

The SR-71 was just plain fast. I am sure America has built its replacement whether, in satellite or winged aircraft, there is something American made replacing the SR-71. It retired some 20 years ago from the NASA program, marking its last paid gig? The news today is about what replaced it not what it can outfly. The mention about the SR-71 is bourne out of admiration for what slide rule and test tanks can do so long ago.

Here-here Blackbird and cheers with thanks

Boeing Could Now Breach 1,000 Airplane Orders in 2018 with Today's Announcement.

With Nigerian based Green Africa Airways ordering a 50-50 deal with Boeing (purchase -options), and another 30-20 for "flyadeal" of Saudi Arabia, Boeing has poised itself to fend off another furious Airbus late booking surge it usually uses to beat a Boeing order year. In all Boeing and its customers announced a $17.6 billion compiled order swing its way. Airbus will go all in sometime after the first of next year claiming orders for 2018.

Boeing has changed how it tallies its order book. It only announces order book data once a month sometime in the second week of each month. It was a weekly reporting last year. The December order number should come out around January 10, 2018. Airbus' habit is to report its order numbers in the first week of each month. Boeing for 2018, is playing the order game differently this year in hopes of topping Airbus for order bragging rights. 

With another firm 80, and 70 optioned 737 Max aircraft reported today, it would bring Boeing's net order book count to 770 firm orders. Just 230 units shy of 1,000 ordered for 2018. It is within reach if Boeing has several more mega orders in its hip pocket it has been working on.

It's Time To Link To Boeing's Financials

The end of the year is near and sometime in January 2019, you will be able to read how many more billion from the deferred balance sheet Boeing has erased by delivering almost 800 787's. Boeing has delivered 787units all time and 139 units YTD.

Boeing Accounting Considerations Link  Deferred Balance is $23 Billion, A 3qtr number

Boeing Financials

It is interesting to note YoY comparisons from 2017 totals to through 2018 performances as one could derive how much money has been written down for every 787 delivered. A number could be projected for when the deferred balance is extinguished in the 787 programs. That would be a rough number but it would give you a chance to estimate when. Currently, Boeing has delivered 139 of the 787 this year it may end up with 142 delivered. Then after the year closes and fourth quarter numbers for special accounting considerations are factored in for the 2018 period one can estimate how Boeing is doing making the 787 programs financially efficient.  

Boeing's Plain Order Book Could Go North of 1,000 in 2019

Boeing has booked a net of 690 airplane orders without the month of December counted until the first two weeks of 2019 reporting on its website. I would expect that number to come out by January 10, 2019. Therefore, 2019 could include a rapidly expanding order book if it announces the 797 at the Paris Airshow in a mid-summer dream. It could possibly book 400 797 orders alone thus making a 1,000 airplane order book a reasonable projection for Boeing's 2019 count.

The 737 Max program took a jolt when Lion Air crashed its eight-month-old 737-8 Max killing 189. The airline would like to blame Boeing for inadequate information provided on its aircraft having a new system without proper information. However, the jury is still out and it looks more like Lion Air had inadequate personnel from the ground up and it sent an unworthy aircraft to its doom with all people onboard dying. Lion Air has announced it will cancel its outstanding order for the Max program as a reaction to Boeing's position on the matter. No other carrier having the Max has experienced a similar catastrophe and it has not been reported to date that other airlines are having difficulty with its 737 Max aircraft to this extent. I expect more 737 Max orders if no conclusion is reached in the next few months concerning its crash. Lion Air is in trouble on this one and it may not be able to even order more aircraft without stiff financial help or confidence.

Embraer has now entered the Boeing family beyond the handshake level after signing papers and taking $4 billion from Boeing.  It can expand with a Boeing aspiration in 80/20 joint commercial airplane venture. Boeing has essentially bought a highly successful airplane building program for $4 billion and with it comes the engineers it needs to build the 797 sooner rather than later. the 7/80/7/7 venture gives Airbus a jab in the shorts regarding the small end of the airplane market. The Airbus Bombardier could end up being a boat anchor for Airbus as it absorbs the CS300 program. Its program health is sound for a quality Canadian product but very limited in the big scheme of aviation.
things.

Boeing is leasing 58 more/less acres at Paine field under the pretense of more airplane storage needed and a footnote where it could convert some of the space to manufacturing when needed. The lot lays just adjacent to the runway. A similar position found in Renton Washington at the 737 manufacturing plant. It's getting to feel a lot like Christmas for the 797 execs residing in an office building somewhere in Seattle, Wa.

Boeing is becoming a Juggernaut it always pretended to be growing up. 

Still Writing An Internet Book "Skalkaho" Enjoy it ,Will Take You To A Place You haven't Visited.

Here is a link staring with chapter 8.

Skalkaho Chapter 8: A Jungle Pilgrimage

It's up to chapter thirteen in the very rough draft form. You could say it is there and a lot of editing to go but that is phase two of writing. Taking a second crack with improving the storyline. Right now just done getting the story first is the goal. I post this here in Winging It because the most time is spent on aviation blogging. Writing a story is a break from airplanes.

Here other chapters from the beginning were you bookmark the chapters for your own referencing

Introduction To Skalkaho

Skalkaho Chapter 1: Blackleaf Camp

Skalkaho Chapter 2: Skalkaho Attacks

Skalkaho Chapter 3: Otaki Is Running Eagle

Skalkaho Chapter 4: Falling Running Eagle And Skalkaho Join As One

Skalkaho Chapter 5: The Rendezvous Breaks

Skalkaho Chapter 6: High School, 1970 and Vietnam

Skalkaho Chapter 7: Ecc. 3:6 A Time To Search

Skalkaho Chapter 8: A Jungle Pilgrimage

Skalkaho Chapter 9: The Beginning Of The End

SKalakaho Chapter 10: Meet Jeff Danbury

Chapter 11: Bangkok, Land of Plenty

12: Bangkok, A Way Home

13: The Plantation A Flexible Mold

If You Didn't See Newcom Coming Then You Weren't Watching Embraer

Boeing Has finished signing the joint venture project with Embraer were Boeing has an 80% share of Embraer, thus paving a way for the 797 programs as the sweetener. Boeing will combine efforts with the Brazilian aero giant for its unannounced launch of the 797. Expect a Paris airshow announcement with both Boeing and Embraer sharing the Airshow microphone when details will spill out over the show. Latin America will be a big customer for the 797 as Embraer engineers will come North with wifi and people in tow.

The die has been a cast, there is a Boeing NMA, Virginia, and Merry Christmas to boot.

Corporate headquarter will remain in Brazil for the sub 150 seat aircraft and Boeing will move jobs North from Embraer for the making of the 797. Don't lose sleep in Seattle, the 797 is primed for Everett, Wa. at the least. Boeing is counter punching Airbus from its recent acquisition of Bombardier. The air war just got intense on three continents Europe, North America, and South America. Delta Airlines is a big Bombardier customer since it just announced its purchase of small airport aircraft. However, Delta is a big fan of the NMA 797 concept and it may be its launch customer. Delta's business plan will accept both Embraer's and Bombardier's offerings.

An expectation in the industry has been set. Boeing is here to fight for its market with product coming for many corners of the earth. A new Boeing completion center in China has just been completed. Airbus has very little counter punching effect on Boeing at this time. Boeing is really being aggressive after Airbus has stolen the march on Boeing with the A-321 middle of its own market aircraft. Boeing will counter with the 797 hoping to block the Airbus A-330 at the top end of the middle and blocking any A-321's at the low end of the middle. So it will build a 230-270 seat airplane type using additional resources from Embraer but making it a fit for all Boeing aircraft classes. The Embraer type smaller 195 types will fly more like a Boeing layout in time but it will have what people like about the Embraer product.  

Now Financial Markets Are Saying 797

BOEING WILL LAUNCH ITS 797, A PLANE PASSENGERS WILL LOVE, SAY ANALYSTS

AirlinesRatings Photo

Cross section of Boeing’s 7J7 of 1989 is similar to what the 797 will look like

Call me: I'll be in Paris.