Remembering A 797 Airplane

Boeing a long time ago suggest building the "Middle of the Market" airplane. It would be somewhere between a 737 and 787 aircraft, tending towards a dual aisle composition. What happened? It's not been announced, nor has the press covered anything 797 for a few months and that's just fine with Boeing. It has said all it's going to say for some time. Lessons learned from the 787 programs allowed Airbus to dampen Boeing's aspirations as it quickly announced its A-350 just after the 7E7 came to the Boeing show and tell at an airshow near Paris.

The silence for the 797 ideas is deafening. It almost looks like Boeing has purposefully changed its tactics towards Airbus by not announcing and let Airbus sell copious numbers of A-321's over the next five years. The suspicion grows it is building a 797 in secret from its CAD machines. The computers are sophisticated enough to design and fly a concept on a big computer screen, in some kind of simulation alter reality. Now Boeing has probably already done a 797 computer mock-up with its vast proven technologies, so the trial and error portion has been skipped. Boeing just needs to build a flying example in a warehouse near the space needle.

Boeing has lined up at least 500 orders from customers loyal to anything Boeing. Naming "Launch Customers" are a bigger problem than any engine selection. About getting an engine is another step progression. Boeing has the Leap for the 737 and the GE for its 787. Those companies are not standing still as Boeing would be in 40,000 to 50,000 thrust range for a super lean burning and quieter engine than what is currently flying. Selecting an engine is as difficult as selecting a launch customer.

The process remains behind closed doors and Boeing will not utter a thing until it can hang an engine on a prototypical 797. It already has a plan to stuff the "Bus" with all things Boeing in a plug and play fashion from its design Bureau, but it needs time for its ultimate strategy of gaining five years on Airbus from its order campaign. When Boeing announces the 797 it will be in Paris and it just might fly-in for a look-see, for all the customers to be amazed.

Airbus will counter but it will be five years too late. The airplane "other-shoe" will have dropped. The only way Boeing can steal the market back is through a surprise reveal at the biggest stage. But that is for risk takers and Boeing is risk adverse except if it called a 787. However,  the 797 is put back into its box for another day. Boeing is on a rampant errand on a white steed and it will lance the windmill one more time with its 797. Risk aversion is job one on the CAD machine. Once all 797 problems have been shredded the announcement will follow allowing Airbus some time in a thoughtful repose for a reflexive move. The wind won't shift for Airbus because that lance is stuck firm tilting its aspiration out of the picture. Don Quixote has a plan. 

Boeing 787 3RD Quarter 2018 Recap

Boeing absorbed 9 more 787-9's from United today, as announced. Not knowing whether it's in September or October the below chart includes the latest 787 numbers I have without eventual validation.

 The quarter over quarter tracker for 2018 recaps the 787 year-to-date at 105 net 787's ordered.

Below are yearly program recaps including 2018 YTD orders and deliveries as of September 30, additionally, it includes YTD compilations for all program years completed.

Boeing Wins The TX-50 Trainer Competition

Boeing has just won another big get with its Trainer-X program. Over 351 trainers will be built by Boeing beating both Lockheed/KAI and Leonardo of Italy with its T-100 offering. It's a 9.2 billion dollar deal where it could possibly build many more hundreds going into the future.

Boeing Wins Big Chopper Battle

Boeing will take an order for 84 of its MH-139 in a co-shared program with Leonardo. Below is a snippet of the win and copter replacing the aged Huey's from the Vietnam war era.

The 787-10 Is A Graphic Center Of Travel

Airline strategies have expanded both ends of the scale. Ultra Long Range to regional travel. Those extremes are marked by the A-350 ULR flown by Singapore Airlines and the 737 flown by Southwest Airlines. A graphics display is rendered, intersecting passenger load, distance, and market density. During the formative years of education a class, most of us readers endured, was geometry. Lines intersect an optimal value. This is what Boeing has done with its 787-10. It's not a long thin route hopper like the Singapore A350-ULR nor is it a 737 Max 8 flying to Las Vegas from Minneapolis. It is optimized for 330 passengers going 6,400 miles. 

Most routes travel the world within 6,400 miles and most passenger densities fall within that band. You may call the 787-10 a generalist, meeting the business model of most airlines. The 777X and the A-350ULR are specialists with a limited thin market. Connecting Singapore with NewYork is a very long thin route. However, Singapore Airlines has ordered 49 787-10's and taken delivery for 6 of its type. It has only ordered seven A350-900 ULR's, hence the long thin route commitment and it will launch its first A-350-900ULR this week to Newark, NJ. 

Singapore happens to be in a 5,000-mile circle of the world's most dense population centers. EVA air has ordered 18 787-10's residing in Taiwan opposite of China.

The coincidence of 787-10 capability and population density concentration is no accident. These two airlines have ordered almost 40% of the 787-10's currently booked by Boeing. When the Emirates order is booked by 40 more 787-10 the balance will rise to 51% of the 787-10 ordered by three airlines. Singapore, EVA, and Emirates, totaling 107 787-10 airframes out of 211 787-10 booked.

The real potential is the whole world where 80% of airline travel resides within a  6,400-mile route circle. The long thin route is rapidly becoming saturated and both Boeing and Airbus will want more orders sooner rather than later. However, the market lies within the 6,400-mile route circle and Boeing has that covered as it prepares to deliver 787-10's to United Airlines sooner rather than later.

Expect more 787-10 orders by Airlines plying European airspace. It would safe to say the order book count for the 787-10 may rise to 300 units instead of its current 171 numbers during 2019. Airlines that may be targeted for a 787-10 order have already been contacted and these may include Delta and American to name a few.

Board Room Question: Will The 787 Deliver 144 in 2018?

I would say no up front but... there are certain objectives to consider.

• Will Hainen find finances for its 787's that are ready for delivery?
• Can Boeing make 14 787 a month during October November, and December of 2018?
• Does Boeing have a packed parking lot of 787 at this moment? 

So far Boeing has delivered 94 of its 787 far short of 144. More like 50 short of that number at this point. If Boeing gets its customer, Hainan Airlines, to have a delivery by end of September, the number will stack up like this. It has already delivered 6 out of 15 scheduled for September. It needs another 9 delivered by the end of the month for 15 total, and Hainan is the lynchpin. If it does occur, then Boeing has only to deliver in the next ninety days or so, another 41 787's by December 31, 2018.

If Boeing produces 14 a month through December it can meet its goal of 144 units delivered during 2018. A slightly lumpy production record suggests Boeing needs to drain its parking lot of 787's waiting for completion and delivery. The recent Hurricane Florence took a little momentum out of Boeing's sails but is just now getting back on its production track. Fourteen a month delivered is possible but unlikely.

Not having an actual parking lot count makes this a difficult call but judging by Everett and Charleston's current parking lot valet, it is safe to say Boeing has at least six frames awaiting customers not mentioned or named Hainan.

The chances of Boeing meeting these aggressive objectives is a fifty-fifty proposition. Given Boeing's capability, it is a do-able achievement, but given external haphazard conditions, Boeing is at a high risk of delivering only in the 130's rather than 144 787 units this year. Every day is worth watching the delivery numbers as the Boeing ship of production and delivery slowly gains speed. It has the ability to make its goal but time has narrowed the risk factors in it not achieving a fourteen a month delivery goal in the fourth quarter.

"Bigger Navy" Seeks Smaller Cruiser

The DDG 1000 or Zumwalt Class ship and Arleigh Burke Destroyer are the main bread and butter ship if the Navy. Since the Zumwalt is more of a test bed than a frontline warship, a new cruiser is in the discussion. The most recent Navy cruiser is called the Ticonderoga class from the 1980's. A New cruiser design the Navy may want is a course correction from the modern Zumwalt tumblehome hull design. Below are rough comparisons the Navy will be working with going to an all-new cruiser with a Winging It estimation for a Ticonderoga type replacement as shown Below.

   
The first topic for change is a new hull. The Navy wants a new hull thus eliminating the current Arleigh-Burke and Zumwalt hulls. The second item under review is stealth capability. A new cruiser may forego some stealth and rely more on combat sensor fusion from satellite to ship and defensive laser guns canceling the need for a fishing boat size of the electronic signature. The thought maybe "we are right here, come and get us" so the hull design will be based on optimal function more than having a stealth-like capability. The thought may come to, "you can't hide a carrier because we don't have to."

A cruiser may follow the carrier philosophy having systems adequate enough taking out any attack from above or beneath the surface and stealth is an expense better spent on weaponry. Speed and endurance may be the primary changes made to the cruiser. Not as many will be built as an Arleigh-Burke or LCS were built but it doesn't have to have numbers. The purpose of a cruiser may become an ocean region focal point where it manages all military assets while traveling fast looking for that opportunity to Marshall military assets. It will have a battle punch itself! Submarine warfare will have a high priority in its suite.

The hull will be designed for speed and space as the battle nerve needs to move quickly as carrier groups ply the seas. It will become the quarterback for the destroyer groups escorting a Gerald Ford class carrier. It could be the F-35 of the high seas with its own suite of sensor fusion. If you miss the battleships from WWII then buy the board game.

The Zumwalt is the pilot hole for the next cruiser. The Arleigh-Burke are the lessons learned as the battlefront changes.

Another talking point is propulsion. Could it be a nuclear-powered machine? That is a strategic question. Fossil fuels can power a ship for about ten thousand miles and then require a fill-up. If a ship is in service for 40 years that is a lot of fossil fuel that may be not around when the ship progressive through its lifetime of service. In a time of war, oil access becomes a weapon. A nuclear warship includes a bulky space for a reactor. But a mass of petroleum is no longer needed for its operation. This is a concept where better military minds can determine a direction on how to use fuel. If a cruiser is few in numbers like the carriers then there are many questions about how much the Cruiser will do in an over-arching warfare mode. Or how important the cruiser becomes because of new capabilities installed. As stated earlier complete stealth is being traded out for speed and size having weapons capabilities for neutralizing adversarial weapons. It will take another 15 years before a ne cruiser type is deployed and could be a replacement for the Destroyers with fewer numbers. 

Boeing's Objectives Reveals A Fragile Outflow

Whether there is a hurricane or financial problems, Boeing has exposed a vulnerability with its high minded goals. They want to produce 12, 787 a month, straining suppliers and customers alike. In July Boeing could only deliver eight of its 787. In August Boeing delivered another eight. It’s already September 19, 2018, and the month only reveals four of its 787 delivered.

In total, since July first, Boeing has delivered 20 787's where a prorated pacing suggest it should have delivered at least thirty 787's during this time span. There are 10 787's not delivered, suggesting $2 billion in revenue missed since July 1, 2018. The stockholders are getting nervous, the day traders are jumping around the market like jumping beans.

A Chinese buyer has reached a financial box and can't fund delivery on two more 787's. Supplier problems arise in a seasonal fashion all that with Hurricane Florence. Boeing has reached a perfect storm. Production is slowed to a walk instead of its usual run. Like all convergences, it passes. Boeing will help solve its 787 supply chain hiccup and a customer’s financial plight. Water does run downhill and Charleston once again will have to spray for bug abatement after its swamps lose some water. It will take Boeing until Christmas to make its own perfect storm to cease and fair weather returns. The productivity lost will crawl back with a few deliveries missing in action as it had predicted a robust production year. It now appears it may deliver about four short of its goal by year's end.

Day trader alert, go fishing until December 15, 2018, and then buy Boeing at year-end after all this nonsense becomes a bad memory and someone on the top floor lost a bonus. That's how the corporate world works, there are ludicrous bonuses at stake and a position to continue holding until the golden parachute delivers near a top floor window.

Boeing may delivery 17 units in a month but it needs several months in a row with 17 787'delivered to make up ground before year's end. The Boeing plant parking lot could save the day if enough airplanes store outside awaiting delivery. Delivery is at a different pace than production and that's Boeing story and they are sticking to it. The perfect storm is only a movie and Boeing is making movement happen. They will still fall short but beat Airbus for this year's World's Largest Airplane Maker Award. It happens and how you scrape it off is how you roll!

777X Shows Up as A Test Article

777X Video Ready For Testing

The Cheesy reporting is all about Big and Beautiful but a very good look at the 777X exterior of the airplane.

Note: wait for it to load it takes a few seconds.

797 Is Just Where Boeing Wants It To Be "Finding 797"

The devil is in the details and that is what Boeing is doing with its NMA 797 concept,. making details It's supposed to be:q

 "BOEING SEES `797′ HAVING 40% LOWER TRIP COSTS VS COMPETITION"

The gauntlet has been thrown down without a weapon in sight. Boeing has 40 engineers turned loose a Spirit and they aren't widdling 797 sticks for trade shows. It's been a while since Winging It has uttered an opinion about the 797 programs, so.  now is a good time to look at the 797 program prospects and other stuff. 

It dawned on me that Airbus hasn't closed on some big deals announced at Farnborough this last summer. I suppose as Airbus habit to flood end of December for a rush of orders thus frustrating Boeing once again at the end of the year as the 2nd place  for order numbers. However, Boeing is playing the game this year and it has the upper hand. The first indicator is Boeing has secured 581 net orders by the end of August where Airbus has only 219 net orders to show for its efforts. Boeing has been storing commitments like a squirrel's winter cache. Big bodied orders lay about awaiting some kind of year ending announcement. Emirates hasn't added its committed forty 787-10. Nor has Boeing indicated how many EVA air has up its sleeve for the same model. Even though Boeing has confirmed its Farnborough order foray into a market lead during 2018 it still remains that several hundred more orders are pending an end of year announcement or an Airshow splash. In one sort month from November 12-16, there is a Dubai Airshow, and perhaps Emirates is waiting for that week to make Boeing's day. It's also conceivable EVA air will roll out the execs for the show and compliment emirates on its taste for 787-10's. If sixty 787 units are announced it would complete Boeing's year.

If Boeing does manage a hundred or more orders next month at the show, it would push the 2018 order total to about 600 units for the year. I wouldn't expect Airbus will have a big show standing for its orders. They are still struggling since those heady days at Farnborough. Airbus would like Air AsiaX to deliver some A330NEO confirmations before year's end after saying it would buy up to a hundred A-330-900 NEO's at the show. The number is fishy and a firm count is hard to come by as different news organizations say different "things" about the deal. The one fact is Airbus own website says 219 net orders for 2018 and Air AsiaX is listed anywhere as of August 31, 2018.  Timing is everything and Boeing could firm up another 100 787's by year's end over what it has already net booked for 2018 (96) 787's.

Airbus needs several grand slams to catch Boeing by year's end. Now moving towards the 797 and its announcement. Boeing is expensing real money on the program at this time. It takes 40 engineers about $8 million in payroll to draw CAD pictures in St. Louis, MO not counting the office building in Seattle, Wa for the 797 program masthead. The total bill for the 797 programs could be $20 million a year at this time and this doesn't count travel expenses for all those trips to customers Boeing is making. Add another $10 million to the 797 tabs.

The 797 has started its money pit several years back and its growing every day. The R & D division is more than a placeholder for Idle dreams. It is a real deal for siphoning resources and impressing launch customers. The Paris Airshow looks to be where the 797 aviation concepts will land as the biggest sideshow for the event. Or it may be the main event for 2019. If Airbus books 600 orders by year's end it will be a satisfactory year. The annual backlog event will give Boeing a chance to gloat as it closes the backlog the Boeing-Airbus gap by several hundred units this year as Boeing cheers the results