The Three Days Of F-35 War

Recently the Dutch featured its F-35 flying through the Sierra Nevada Range of Mountains in California with a Photo Journalist on Hand here is the result of this photograph.

Dutch F-35 in Beast Mode.

Beast mode Day Three of war

For those who wonder why we have a stealth aircraft which would not evade radar when bombs are hung on its wings. The answers are simple. The three days of airwar is for the F-35-A, B, and C.

Day 1: Stealth, Stealth, Stealth

Day 2: Long range Air to Air combat

Day 3: Beast Mode mop up.

Day one is for internal weapons load for taking out radar systems making them blind to the F-35 stealth. Having those systems down makes adversarial missile systems useless against the F-35 and makes the F-16, F-15 and F-18 players fused into the F-35 for Day two of war maneuvers. 

Day two is air to air combat day which the adversaries will be flying blind to all American fighters synced with the F-35, Satellite, and surface systems. 

Day three is a non-stealth day for the F-35 Beast mode for all aircraft. Including the B-1, B-2 and eventually B-21 Raider. The F-35 can now play Quarterback and direct the US arsenal with impunity setting stealth aside and using the F-15 Strike Eagles for any remaining aircraft coming up to meet this aviation armada unloading on the combat airspace.

Beast mode will clean the battlefield's deck eliminating armor, bunkers, and hardened position allowing the ground forces access for eventual victory. The electronic war is already neutralized on day one. Even its Satellites overwatch will be space junk for any adversary using that type of electronics for battle use.

Perhaps Boeing Not Posting Its August Orders and Delivery For August BY 8-10,

...is a sign it has too many orders from Farnborough it needs to sort out! Anyways the stats guy probably was cut and the newbie hasn't found the desktop keyboard on week one of the new job. Boeing tech miskeyed the "r" from orders sending everyone looking under desks for those pesky odors. Anyway have a nice day, as I sit and ponder about orders.

The 797 Boeing Bluff Card For Airbus

The 797 bluff Airbus into building a skinny A321NEO for eroding the Boeing intention of an NMA aircraft. Boeing's intent is still valid, but after looking at CFM's lagging production of its Max and NEO engines it becomes a concern to re-evaluate the scenario for building a "797".  Boeing needs a second engine producer as the CFM consortium wrestles with engine production woes on the new engine. It can't make enough fast enough! Boeing is taking a step back for design, Plan B and accumulating costs for a new program such as the NMA project.

Boeing will come out with an appropriate offering by 2019 but with a dwindling market from Airbus nick picking the NMA potential for medium sized aircraft. The A321NEO does have a market ceiling and it nears that ceiling by 2019, at the expense of some potential Boeing 797 sales. However, with a two engine type offering, it could bounce Airbus hard with landing more NMA orders expected. I would expect Boeing is toying with two 797 types and then two different model within the type.

The two types would be for 220 or 270 seat carrier with each having two different engine types for each capacity. This would follow true when building a passenger/freight version and that becomes the Boeing sticking point. How will it build a passenger only variation while building a passenger-cargo holding variation? North America indicted it is good with a passenger only configuration while Asia wants some cargo capacity with its own delivered form. Boeing could opt for the former AKA; North American over the "Asian". The Asian model may be dropped from consideration, suffering some more market loss but not necessarily to the A321NEO option. It sounds more like another Boeing Moonshot is in the offing.

It's Complicated: Boeing is taking a break from the 797 concepts until later in 2019. The final rendition for an NMA will resemble more of a conventional ovoid body with an enhanced cargo bay. It will have new engines and 787 like technology infused into its frame. It will have Everett made wings out of carbon fiber. It needs a significant weight reduction over prior generation airplane types. Even though Asia won't get all it wants, but it will get a 797 having traditional cargo space that no in-class competition can produce when it arrives. The Asian market won't lever Boeing. Boeing will not complicate the final NMA solution. 

However, the engine award is going to be a single sourced supplier. The engine is the most complicated item Boeing is facing on this program at this time. It may take Boeing more time than it intended when selecting an engine. Rolls has its problems and CFM has not untangled its production shortfall. Either one would be a risk of not delivering fast enough during the 797 onsets of delivery that Boeing is willing to risk. Boeing is displaying an NMA bluff card where Airbus counters with its A321NEO in the meantime.

Boeing can take the play with its bluffs and frustrate the Airbus team with different conceptions until the 797 firmly announces.

Boeing's Deferred Cost of 24.5 Billion

Boeing has 674 undelivered 787's. If all were delivered it would need $38.3 million contributions from each delivered aircraft. Fortunately for Boeing, it has booked more orders and will book more orders by year's end. 

Deferred Costs Soaks The Monopoly Man At Boeing

When building and delivering at least 135 units a year, Boeing may exhaust that backlog over the next five years as it approaches the 1400 unit block point it has established after announcing these unit numbers for eliminating the deferred balance. 

The 1400 unit block requires a $34.2 million per unit surplus as a goal when having five years for building 716 units as an example by 2024. It's a good prediction that is influenced by a more profitable 787-9 and -10 in the production works than its less profitable 787-8 which are already optimized on the production line.

In conclusion, Boeing already has 716 backlog units even though not all booked at this time, but it should exceed that number when posts its August report for July 2018. Therefore, the profit dollar must maintain an average of $34.2 million dollars per unit (profit margin ) delivered over the next five years in order to reduce its 787 deferred cost balance, which has now dropped to $24.5 billion from the $28 billion benchmark.

By 2024 Boeing may add another 500 units to its backlog than it has today even when building 144 787's a year at a 12 a month rate. The deferred balance total is a solid bullseye in Boeing's sights.

The 737 Heated Up At Farnborough

It's no accident that Boeing dominated this year's air show at Farnborough. It booked 564 737 types at this year's show surpassing its long-standing arch-rival, the Airbus company. Already, Boeing has firmed a prior Viet Jet MOU/LOI commitment into a firm order today pushing Boeing's firm order upward by 100 units. This would be a firm up for 80 of its Max 737-8's and then 20 Max 737-10's. The Boeing MOU/LOI dividend is already paying off.

Time is the key metric for this Boeing onslaught at the airshow.   Both the NEO and the Max have had time in the marketplace under the operational condition and customers haven't missed the memo that the 737 Max beats the A320NEO. Viet Jet ordered 100 Max and 50 A320's in a head to head decision for single-aisle types. What this means is Viet Jet is leveraging both makers into the lowest price possible under a competitive environment and it already firmed its 100 737 Max ordered just only days after the show.

Timing may have sped along the finances and early firm order signing, but it does show Viet Jet has done its homework and the Max is a pretty good deal from initial costs through operational efficiencies beating the A320NEO. The important takeaway is that Boeing has become aggressive because it has a winner in the Max and other customers are watching this competitive drama unfold in the most lucrative single-aisle market. 

Now the Farnborough play reflects Viet Jets signing for its Max. Airbus booked 304 A320's having a firm, MOU, or LOI designation. It is interesting to note, that too is almost a two to one Boeing advantage with its Max over the single-aisle NEO at the show over-all. Airbus by day four only had a total of 93 firm orders booked for all commercial product at that time.

It also is important to note, Boeing had booked 350 single-aisle and widebody orders at the show giving Boeing a four to one advantage with firm show orders. The Viet Jet confirmation for 100 Max increases Boeing's current market hold by a hundred more aircraft pushing the Boeing /Airbus show disparity above four to one sales ratio for this year's show. Boeing made serious headway over its market share status for single-aisle at the show and it could increase by year's end. In only two weeks we all should see the Boeing.com total 2018 order numbers within its publication. 

Currently, Airbus has about a 1,000 unit lead over Boeing but the market trend from the show encourages Boeing for closing the gap in numbers by year's end. It will not make up the single-aisle shortfall with Airbus but Boeing will make Airbus nervous with this Farnborough order surge and may close the gap between the two giants by 500 units instead of 1,000 single-aisle order gap.

Embraer Could Be Single Aisle Division For Boeing

It is possible that Boeing is taking so long with its impending 797 launch announcement because it may be reorganizing its airplane family to include an Embraer built the single-aisle family of aircraft where Boeing will become a dual aisle master of aircraft. There is room for Boeing to fill a gap with its 797 concepts with perhaps three different models at the start of a launch for the 797. It is also possible for Boeing expanding Embraer's horizons with a continued family from the ERJ 135 through the 737-9 models. The 737 Max 10 would morph into the 797 series with Boeing as a dual-aisle aircraft starting the series with 220-240 seats. The next 797 step would become a 250 seat dual aisle 797 and finally, the 270 seat 797 would cross continents with a regional bent.

The lessons learned from the 787-300 concept was too soon to fill the gap because customers didn't get it. Since Boeing was too experimental with the 787 plastic ideas at the time and new airplane risks were off the charts. However, it was a natural gap filler needing its own family as much as the top end of the Single-aisle member, the 737 Max 10 in order to respond well in the market. 

Embraer fell into Boeing's lap and that changed everything for the Boeing thinking cap. Renton Washington could build everything 797 instead of the Max family. Embraer can now knit its own family together from 50 seats to 175 seats without threatening Boeing's family of single-aisle aircraft by a 2030 clean-sheet. The 797 family starts off right where the 737-10 left -off at $130 million list price and then go North to $200 million with a 270 seat 797. The gap would close and have Airbus at the game, set, and match.

Boeing would be dual-aisle and Embraer would be single-aisle. The lucrative 737 Max book would slide forward to Embraer by 2030 and after which Boeing has firmly entrenched with its 797 families and Embraer gains the know-how for a whole new single-aisle design. 

Boeing would co-star in a design team effort for a new single-aisle concept as indicated previously. The year 2030 is just a milestone in aviation's evolution and it would be a natural fit for a Brazilian/US joint venture of resources and markets. The customers would have to catch this vision as well. They would have plenty to say on a new single-aisle design. Embraer would fill the single-aisle market with what customers want and what Boeing could do for them (Embraer or customer).

The risks are high, but the reward is higher if managed well. The key is if Boeing has found a 4,000 aircraft market without disrupting the 787 golden goose. The world keeps growing in numbers and dual-aisle is a natural design for more passengers. If Boeing data indicates 4,000 is a low number for the 797 type of aircraft, it is because pundits haven't considered the broader gap where populations need moving just like it goes today in the single-aisle aircraft as then an NMA reality becomes the reality of a 6,000 unit 797 family of aircraft. The higher NMA numbers is that market realization only after it arrives with its first delivery prompting a 797 dual-aisle market expansion.  The single-aisle market stabilizes with this gap filler. 

All in all, Boeing pauses with the "MoM", using an Embraer alliance for cover. Even as it tries to figure out how both the market and its new partner will fit-in with its own broader scheme for developing the dual-aisle medium aircraft. The 797 should become a permanent upscale from the single-aisle, as the world's travel demand expands.  

Boeing is paused because of this New Medium Aircraft market risk is great when fitting into the broader airplane market with a "super-two" as an adjunct for both the 737 and 787 in the emerging world's marketplace. It just needs to know how many NMA's aircraft it can sell before its new Brazilian partner can build its next version of a single-aisle. Otherwise, Embraer would not have joined with Boeing. A prediction for the NMA family would go as follows:

• 797-800
• 797-900
• 797-1000

A clean sheet Boeing-Embraer single-aisle starting in 2030 may start a B/E family with a 737E-2  named for the lowest seat count (50-75 seats) where it builds up to a 737E-9 (200 seats) before the jump to a Boeing 797-800.
.

797 Metal Totally Tubular; Composite Is Ovoid!

The 797 purveyors are guessing what the 797 will be built of and schools of thought are floating the press reports. The Seattle Times reports, Ihssane Mounir, Boeing, Commercial Sales, and marketing VP who stated at Farnborough, "the 797 will go composite", while other Boeing groupies say metal body for Everett, Wa.

“We are committed to continuing looking at a composite structure,” said Boeing sales Chief, Ihssane Mounir. 

This argument is a diversion from reality as Winging It is a reliable source using second-day quips.

A metal body speaks of China stepping up its freight concerns and a composite body becomes an ovoid shape for passenger comfort in North America. Boeing's VP suggest the composite structure is "in" the running during the Farnborough Airshow. 

Winging It thinks maybe both body types are correct. a 220 passenger class metal body for Chinas freight and passengers and a 270 passenger type made of composite with a different shape just for passenger traffic. Everett would build the metal type and Charleston would build the composite type both totaling 2,000 orders in the first 5 years. Let's just say the 787-300 has taken on a different shape to its approach.

The aircraft types would share engines, avionics, and technology advances but would have different designs features which are why Boeing is taking so long to decide on the announcement. It's complicated to make it a simple decision. It’s a crazy world and Winging It enjoys the dog and pony show.

Farnborough Day 4, I Guess (updated I guess: part II)

The official Winging IT guess is Boeing's killing Airbus this year at Farnborough 2018 for orders as the numbers are shown below: The firm orders will add to the annual book for Boeing's "July" reported in August as it updates its own website. The firm Boeing Book Airshow grows in number at a 3-1 order pace over Airbus capping-reporting for July 2018. Even the Commitment/MOU outpaces Airbus at this time. Remembering some big widebody orders not yet firmed by Boeing occurring before the Airshow, it maintains a solid lead over Airbus. It may even beat the Airbus shuffle at year's end 2018.

Winging Its Order Guesstimate Farnborough 2018

Below is an Airshow estimated correction as shown above for Boeing Co., otherwise a tally by type. The list is a compilation of total orders and commitments and is an unofficial amount but does illustrate the potential Boeing order book if all commitments are signed as firm orders.

Corrected view per additional publicized Airshow recap

Notes:
P= passenger type
F= Freight tye

Boeing's 797 Is The Candy Wrapper Boeing Wants Also The Candy Bar

Boeing currently sells its airplanes for 30% of its future cash inflow where it could also market in-house products supporting those aircraft over the next thirty years for 70% more cash intake. Boeing theoretically, has a 70% in-house product margin not yet tapped. It could and now has indicated it will seek ways to move more product line to its core mission.

The following are possibilities and actual implementations:

·      Global services such as ground maintenance and Boeing staffing.

·      Global services such as over-arching training and Boeing proprietary parts supplier

·      Exclusive Supplier Contracts

·      Providing a third party gateway for major systems replacement such as engines, gearing, and electronics.

·      Finally, a nose to tail Boeing product suite.

·      Additionally, worldwide added value accessibility for leading-edge Boeing components

These are a wide-ranging list for what Boeing is establishing for its plus 70%  business model. Selling an airplane is a gateway into the Boeing airplane business catalog. It may become as simple as going to its electronic interface and selecting a preferred service item and a Boeing representative will confirm the service or add value to an airline own business plan. China is home to multiples of start-up airlines. The Boeing emphasis towards the added value model when buying an aircraft expands a customer’s options for its new ventures. Cash-strapped legacy carriers may also identify high-cost areas of its operations and quickly go to Boeing's 70% portion and pull out a plan that is more efficient so it can remain more competitive.

In other words, the 70% realm is created out of the one-stop shop philosophy. Boeing is changing its business model to accommodate rising airline customers at every stage of its growth and offers already mature airline customers’ options in which to lever its operations on-the-fly. The Boeing goal is to capture the financial potential after an airplane is sold by 70% over its next thirty years while in operation with an airline, at a value less than what the same airline could do on its own. Boeing being aggressive with it one-stop-shop business modeling convincing customers while purchasing a Boeing it is eligible for additional Boeing advantages over thirty Years. The over-arching business plan has a name and its called "The Edge".

Boeing Chokes On Its 797 and Says 2019

Winging It has long predicted a 2018 797 launch. The time window is just right for Boeing but its leaders have just now cleared its voice saying, "2019" for the 797 Goldilocks and will launch (hinted) in 2019 because its business case is not yet perfected for the 797. Winging It also believes a concurrent program for the 797 exists. 

In other words, the program has seven years before an official delivery date but in those seven years, Boeing would also concurrently resolve all financial planning concerns. Boeing does have its customers for a launch at this time. It also has its technological bundle for the 797 in a row. The design points are now relegated to an adjustment period where the eraser could change what launch customer would want for a refining design. An observer (Winging It) has no idea what has just occurred with the Boeing 797 prototype but only assumes it will hold 220-270 passengers and fly 5000-mile distance with full loads.

As mentioned before, CFM (A GE joint venture with Safran, jet engine builders) has let this little nuance out of its bag; "CFM" is ready to go with Boeing on a 797 "45,000 lbs thrust range". That is a major concern (having a new engine) for this airplane program and one more year waiting for a launch does not change the 2025 first delivery date but does allow Rolls, PW and GE; a shot of making a solid proposal during 2019. The concurrency has started with an engine builder already "concurrently" working an engine-up by Paris where development is farther along than the press would indicate. Expect an engine proposal coming forward, with Boeing accepting a single source jet engine. Rolls Royce is working at a high pace proposing a 797 jet engine by Paris Air Show, 2019. CFM is working and indicating it is ready for Boeing's 797 and GE is lurking while PW GTF is also a strong contender.

It could announce at Farnborough but won't announce because Boeing has backed down its new airplane development swagger as a corporate policy, thus avoiding all-new airplane woes experienced from the 787 experience. Airbus knows where Boeing is going and Boeing is not in the Airbus rearview mirror. Airbus needs to clean its windscreen several times a day from Boeing splatters at this time. The 797 is the biggest spatter for Airbus, which no wiper could possibly clean in time for the Paris Airshow. Boeing is going to have a huge widebody order book at Farnborough while Airbus will announce several hundred single-aisle A-320's orders. The dollar order value will favor Boeing at Farnborough and beyond.