787 Program Numbers Crunched

Its been a while since numbers have been discussed. Sometimes terminology is used as in "Book to Bill" ratio needs to reach a theoretical "1". Or more commonly described as for every order there is one delivered within the same said period of time. Below is a Winging It Chart of 787 production and orders during the whole program to date not respecting any one year or month, but from the programs start of production/delivery in 2011 when the first 787's were delivered late in that year.

This recap has about 688 units in a backlog status until built and delivered. Program to date reports about 1,365 units ordered making the book to bill program ratio derived from 1365/677 thus equaling 2.02 BB rate. Another interesting note the deliveries are almost equal to it backlog comparing a 50/50 status. Boeing is announcing many more 787 bookings this year as it hopes to match its delivery pace with new orders by year's end in a 2018 BB rate of 1. An optimistic view, indeed. The rate production is jumping to 14 a month or 168 units a year for 2019. That number becomes an indicator it also hopes to match 787 booking by the same number. By year's end, Boeing will be hoping for around 140 units booked for maintaining of "1" BB Ratio by meeting its goal of 140 deliveries.

American Resurgence Of The 787-8

Is Boeing deviously surging the 787-8 brand of aircraft? Is the 787-8 not dead? These questions may come up since Boeing just sold American Airlines 22 of its 787-8's. That's a whole year or two worth of 787-8 sales. It has been quite a while since Boeing last sold that many 787-8's in one day. Since then (that day) it has sold a boatload of 787-9's and 787-10's.

In fact, since the last load of 787-8's were sold, the Boeing company accomplished the last checklist item it needed. Fit the 787-8 together just like the 787-9 fits together. In other words, sections of the 787 and its associated components are built like a 787-9. Back in September 2017 as an example, Boeing announced a Japan Airlines deal for four 787-8's as previous disclosed unidentified customer booked order belonging to Japan Airlines. A slow announcing process for the 787-8, indeed.

The American Airline order just announced for 22 787-8's has the aviation world looking at that order under its scrutiny of why order well beyond the long ended Boeing introductory model. Why is Boeing investing in building the 787-8 efficiently as a 787-9? 

Boeing.com Data from January 2015 to current; Winging It Chart

The takeaway is the 787-8 program was essentially dead until the American Airlines order this last monthly cycle in early April 2018.

Other airlines are in the order mode with the 787-8 which are not disclosed at this time, otherwise, Boeing would not have spent time and money making the 787-8 build process uniform with its other stablemates. 

There were about 60-70 frames yet to be built when the new build process was completed. Bam! then came the American 787-8 order for 22. It signals a resurgence not an end to the program, otherwise, there would be no order from American.

Boeing can build it cheaper at this time and airlines will be filling its aviation gap with the 787-8. The 787-9 is currently the moneymaker with its great airspace rush going on for long-range routes which will end by 2025. The NMA is the next airspace rush and the 787-8 will be in that mix with those fleet offerings. The second rush is for a regional 220-270 passengers capacity where the 797 and 787 will play the central role. American Airline has reawakened this market segment adventure.

Boeing's Order Newsreel for April 2018

Boeing has changed its reporting so Winging It has changed its reporting. Boeing used to update its book almost weekly but has deferred its reporting with a once a month each month and reports it the following next month. Otherwise, the April numbers aren't in the bag for Boeing until mid-May.  

Below is the news recap of Boeing Orders reported by press accounts month-to-date. There are 261 total orders for April's month as reported by news outlets. There are about 50 787's ordered and 211 737 Max types announced during this month. These are pre airshow numbers for just one month!! It's shaping up as a big Boeing order year, as the Farnborough airshow will reveal a mountain of orders yet to come. A prediction is 600 units ordered with Boeing, by mid-year post-Farnborough.

Most of these press order announcements should be booked by Mid-May.

The Next GE 9X Engine will Hang From a 777-9X

Recently, as in last month, the GE corporation hung a (134" circle) engine on its 747-testbed aircraft dwarfing the 747's other engines, which were once thought to be big, But this test engine is the size of a 737 body circumference.



The point of this commentary is very little news is forthcoming on the 777 X program other than a BIG test engine hangs on a GE 747 test bed. It (engine) will fly next on a 777 X wing next year. This year is almost half over it is only about a 12-month wait until the 777X has her first flight. It is a big event for aviation nerds but the 777X program life cycle is well into its halfway point journey. It's closer to first flight than it is to the first program announcement. Boeing remains tight-lipped on the progress more by design than sensing any build problems. Customers may know more about 777X progress than the press is able to ascertain at this time the news is there but it's buried under 777X confidentiality. 

The A-350-900ULR Makes it A Space Ship

An airplane which typically seats 300 passengers is going ULR just as Boeing 787 could go ULR by cutting the seat count by half and adding 6,500 gallons of fuel capacity. 

It then went and redesigned its wing making it more like a Boeing 787 crafted wing for efficient flight. Having no newer of more efficient engines, but less weight via having fewer passengers and a new wing. If calculating a passenger load for any long-range aircraft, it must start with a mass of 300 lbs per seat which includes the following: seat weight, airline supplies, passenger weight, additional crew, and luggage. 

The A350-900 ULR  must come to a Passenger Weight Reduction (PWR) by calculating the typical A350-900 passengers load of (306 passengers x's 300 lbs) and then subtract the PWR of (144 seats x's 300 lbs) as ULR has passengers charted. Thus equaling a Passenger Weight Reduction (PWR) of about 150 lbs per passenger per load. 

Otherwise, it trims off the paying load by 300 (lbs) X's 144 passengers or 27,500 lbs. The net PWR is calculated by factoring its initial PW factor weight of 300 lbs for 91,800 lbs (A-350-900 seat number x's 300 lbs) - 46,800 (using a ULR seat number x's 300) or equaling about 27,500 lbs. The fuel increase weight of 6,500 lbs on a URL is factored from Jet A gallons equals about an additional 44,000 lbs calculated, increasing its range to about 9,500 miles from 8500 miles.

The ULR configuration increases passenger space by only allowing only 94 economy and 68 business class seats spread out over its elongated body. It's truly becoming a space-ship.

Qantas Airline has configured a standard Boeing 787-9 going the distance from Perth Australia to London England for 9,100 miles, by only seating 236 passengers but not adding an additional fuel capacity or wing upgrade. Project Sunrise from the Qantas concept has asked both airframers to come up with a solution for its own aspirations of going anywhere in Australia to anywhere in the world. 

An example is the Perth to London route by it would also like using a Sydney to London proposition so passengers would not need a connecting flight to Perth from Sydney or Vice versa when going to New York City. Those are goals of Qantas but not necessarily of airline fleets found around the world. The ULR has about 67 ordered to date including Singapore Airlines order book. Its own goals have formed a strategy going east or west anywhere in the world. 

Project Sunrise will create spaceships coming from both Boeing or Airbus traveling for 20 hours using a lower number of passenger capacity coming from both designs but will become an expensive proposition for everyone concerned.

Rolls Royce Repair Trent 1000 Package "C"

Rolls Royce has a unique jet engine situation for which it can't fix its way out of in a timely manner. It will cost them $100's of millions for a resolution. It surrounds its engine blades wrapped around the center engine compressor found on 787's using the Trent 1000 Package C option.  ANA is its top customer having 100 Rolls Royce engines needing replacing. It has begun this process which will take up to three years.

Having limited jet engine knowledge makes it better for keeping any discussion at an overview level which most readers will find enlightening. It starts at the narrow top of the symmetrical tree and goes down to the spreading branches near the base. The top, has two competing manufacturers, GE and Rolls Royce. Boeing chooses to have two engine makers because it wanted a broad range of customers who had GE or Rolls Royce fleets allowing for a purchase of its 787. Secondly, if an engine became a flawed concept the other engine maker could save the 787 program. Boeing has reached that Plan B status as the Rolls has hit a bump, and it's not as simple as swapping out Rolls Royce for a GE. It's not a literal plug and play change and the ground crew servicing a "Rolls" are not typically trained for both engine makers.

The problem starts with decomposing fan blades which is the workhorse of the jet engine for pushing air through it. Without the blades, the engine simply won't work at any altitude. The blade degradation is a serious issue. Spinning a fan blade is way more effective than spinning sticks when trying to move air.

Below stuff.co.nz photo: Fan Blades halfway there for becoming a major engine failure.

The carbon fiber resins crack apart as optimal RPMs are reached, thus suffering a catastrophic engine power failure and endangering long-range routes on the "C" package engines from Rolls Royce.

MRO Network Photo Below:

The double edge sword view: airlines with Rolls Royce "C's" could face the cost of regrouping with GE engines, thus becoming too cost prohibitive for any operation, stressing an end for a  Rolls Royce 787 engine run. Otherwise, it will also have to pay millions for any fix of the Trent 1000 package "C" engines. Starting with ANA. The second option is what is happening at this time. Customers are awaiting a Rolls solution and that may take years while in the meantime, the FAA has ordered those 787's only a 140 minute flight distance to any airport or about twelve hundred miles. Routes need to bend towards airports instead of flying straight towards its long-range destination. 

A subproblem is having a Boeing 787 build processes set up for either the GE or Rolls Royce before engines are even mounted on a frame. Customers who already ordered long in advance for its engines on a  787, can opt out of the Rolls Royce easier than it could change it on a wing of an already delivered 787. Furthermore, it doesn't even consider the costs associated with an increased maintenance penalty for tooling and training of ground crews for a different engine.

Customers who have not made an engine decision with its backlogged order status have time to make an engine commitment change. Engines already flying are costly to repair or switch out with another brand, but it once again can be done at a great cost to ground operations for parts and labor already set for Rolls Royce engine maintenance.

Plan A is for Rolls Royce to change out affected parts to the problem with new parts that result in a permanent solution.

Boeing Studies Its Plate Tectonics

Plate Tectonics, subduction zone, and tsunamis are what's up with Boeing. It isn't geophysical nor episodic but it does involve the Boeing 797 NMA announcement. The handwriting is on the wall. Charleston is destined to become Boeing's main family counselor for the 787 and Boeing needs space for building almost 4,000 NMA's and 777X's. Don't forget another ten years of 777-300ER production as freight and passenger airlines replace its fleets with those types long after the 777-9X takes off from Everett next year.

Plate tectonic takes the Pacific plate and moves en mass towards the east bumping the opposing plate in its way. Sometimes it bends under the more stationary continental plate in an arcing motion downward call the subduction zone. Some may even call it the Pacific Rim where the Japanese imagined monsters come from for full-length feature films plots.

The big 100-foot high oceanic wave swallows the west coast in one surge as the 787-8 moves to Charleston, SC. from Everett which is so close to volcanos such as Mt Hood, St Helens, and Rainier located just down the interstate for any worry about sea level. The NMA will need RCP materials and autoclaves. It will also need production space which Charleston, SC can provide by moving the 787-8 eastward and out of Everett. When the 787-8 moves to Charleston, then the 797 will be announced. The notion has passed the first high-end staff meeting. The 797 customers are lined up as if in ammo boxes waiting to be loaded. The announcement is just an airshow away to be locked.

Yes, the NMA is coming and the 787-8 production is moving away from the 777X and 797 NMA build space. I'm not Boeing and I don't sit in on Boeing meetings, but I do know "X" can't happen until the 7 Late 7-late flies south.

"Giving The Middle Finger"... well it starts in the middle

Airlines and its builders now have a way for fitting three across passengers in a somewhat comfortable scheme. Its called the middle seat. A place which passengers can give its fingers a place to rest amongst competing passenger space.

The middle is no longer a vulgar gesture

The staggering proposition is seated with a bigger idea. Make the middle seat bigger than its other row mates will sit-in. Examine the above video link and then give your row mate not the middle, but what makes the middle the middle, the window or aisle position. You are the ultimate middle finger of flying more comfortably and others, well, the "sidekicks" can just suck it. 

United's 787-10 Offers 4 Seats

Flight Global:

"The Chicago-based carrier will configure the 787-10 with 318 seats, split between 48 Polaris business, 21 premium economy, 45 extra-legroom economy and 208 economy, a seat map published in the 1 May update to United's flight attendant manuals and shared with FlightGlobal shows."

The take from this article is United Airlines is going to offer an ala-carte approach for seat tickets in four classes. The back end of the aircraft is the usual suspects.  Economy!! See above and use your diet plan as to where you would be able to sit.

American Airlines wants Its NMA

In spite of ordering 47-787 last week, American Airlines indicates a "strong"  interest in the Boeing 797 product, which has yet to be announced by Boeing as it refines 797 proposals for its select and potential launch customers. American Airlines will long have received its 47th Dreamliner during 2025. 

Flight Global reports, "The deal includes orders for 22 787-8s, which will arrive starting in 2020, and 25 787-9s, which will be delivered starting in 2023. Deliveries will wrap up around 2025, according to Flight Fleets Analyzer." 

The 797 will tentatively start first deliveries as Boeing's NMA during or after 2025 as it has a substantial number of 767's and some 777's needing replacing on some of its 5,000 nm routes and will come off active duty from fleet aging conditions by 2025 and beyond. The NMA would likely slot-in behind those retirements at that time.