United's 787-10 Offers 4 Seats

Flight Global:

"The Chicago-based carrier will configure the 787-10 with 318 seats, split between 48 Polaris business, 21 premium economy, 45 extra-legroom economy and 208 economy, a seat map published in the 1 May update to United's flight attendant manuals and shared with FlightGlobal shows."

The take from this article is United Airlines is going to offer an ala-carte approach for seat tickets in four classes. The back end of the aircraft is the usual suspects.  Economy!! See above and use your diet plan as to where you would be able to sit.

American Airlines wants Its NMA

In spite of ordering 47-787 last week, American Airlines indicates a "strong"  interest in the Boeing 797 product, which has yet to be announced by Boeing as it refines 797 proposals for its select and potential launch customers. American Airlines will long have received its 47th Dreamliner during 2025. 

Flight Global reports, "The deal includes orders for 22 787-8s, which will arrive starting in 2020, and 25 787-9s, which will be delivered starting in 2023. Deliveries will wrap up around 2025, according to Flight Fleets Analyzer." 

The 797 will tentatively start first deliveries as Boeing's NMA during or after 2025 as it has a substantial number of 767's and some 777's needing replacing on some of its 5,000 nm routes and will come off active duty from fleet aging conditions by 2025 and beyond. The NMA would likely slot-in behind those retirements at that time.

How's It Going In April Boeing ????

So Far so Good as... at least 185 are in the deal mode for Boeing as of April 12, 2018.

Boeing Airbus Backlog Comparison

Here it is Boeing is closing the gap on Airbus in Both units and $$. Production has reached parity for both manufacturers, but Boeing has outpaced Airbus in orders during the first quarter of 2018. This, of course, reflects a list price per unit by type.

March 2018 Boeing Unit Sales Report

Boeing finally reports a normal month in March excepts leaves Hawaiin Airline's 787-9's off the tally

sheet. Winging see clear sky's going forward with its bookings as some "big" orders yet remain to be booked but also have been committed. Most are concerning the 787 types. Pre Farnborough numbers

make for a solid year.

Below are Boeing website reports:

As of March 31,2018 

Now What For The 787 After American's Airline Orders 47 - 787.

American Airlines has now triggered a firm order for Boeing's 787 programs. It ordered 22 787-8's and 25 787-9's for a total of about $12 billion at list prices. It was the big break Boeing has chased since the merger American Airlines conducted when it had absorbed and accepted the former US Air's order book for 22 A350 in the merger.

Boeing was the victor after years of sales work bore this American 787 deal fruit. Not forgetting the Emirates unconfirmed 787-10 order for 40 and the Hawaain order for 10 787-10, which when booked on Boeing's website will probably push the annual bookings above 100 787 units for 2018 and give Boeing a 1400 unit program count which gives the deferred cost balance something to think about.

The "now what" for Boeing is finding another 100 widebody sales for 2019.

Boeing being bold, set a new accounting block at 1,400 hundred units before it would retired program debt and it is also announced increasing monthly 787 deliveries to a 14 a month pace. No one could predict if Boeing could pull off its pronouncement of manufacturing capability. The orders weren't there back in 2017. Then came Emirates in November 2017 for 40 787-10's and now American for 22 787-8 and 25 787-9 totaling 87 paper units. Hawaiin closes the book near a hundred units for 2018.  The year has 8 1/2 more months and Farnborough is yet ahead on the calendar!

Boeing long knew it had a plan coming together last year when it announced production increase to 14 units a month. The year has yet to play out, but it now looks as if Boeing has and had gained control of the widebody market which Airbus depends on for busting Boeing's game up. It looks like it will be a long airplane war for which Boeing has gained the advantage. The market death blow and for subduing Airbus could come with a successful Boeing NMA offering, aka the 797.

Yep That's A 787-10 AirAsia's Benyamin Ismail is Holding

AirAsia's Benyamin Ismail holds a model of Boeing's 787-10 during his short visit to Seattle with Boeing. Sounds like Farnborough becomes the center of Boeing's attention as customers are hoving over its widebody offering before the Farnborough Airshow 2018.

Photo Linked to Skyscrapercity.com 

AirAsia to buy Boeing planes?

Boeing's Order Book Waiting Game

It used to be by the end of each week Boeing would post current order numbers on its website.  It spoiled all of us Boeing readers of its website. Airbus in return for its own convenient service, sandbagged order announcements while orchestrating its total for year-end and it seemed surprisingly always beating Boeing with a January order update from held orders. It was game on and now Boeing only announces its order book one month at a time two weeks after the former month ends. We are in April and March order numbers will come in ten days. In the meantime, there are orders that won't be reported until May already this month. Jet Airways of India just contracted with Boeing for 75 737 Max aircraft which won't show on its website until six weeks later in May for its April order number.

Expect the Hawaiian 787-9 March orders to show up in two weeks. There could be a bunch of 737 unidentified customer orders for its 737 upcoming March report. Who knows? Remember, game on!

It becomes difficult to measure the order game since Boeing is pulling an Airbus reporting once a month two weeks after the reporting month closes. It will be mid-January 2019 before the final 2018 numbers are tallied.

However what is known as reported by the press will become the new reporting methodology. You already know airshow reporting is confusing at best. Some report, commitments, and some report firm sales as commitments and the then some report gossip. It will be maddening to use an airshow for real data. 

Emirates still has ordered 40 787-10 not yet firmed or reported as an order by Boeing. This should happen by year's end or at Farnborough this July. American Airline is dithering its widebody order out on a string until further notice. Now we all have to wait and see instead of using good reporting techniques from gossip.  

P-8 Orion Prease Go Away

A Chinese sandbank in the South China Sea defends its crabs as a P-8 Poseidon flies by with this Chinese admonition, "Please Go Away you are entering a Chinese military area and we don't want a mistake". 



The US responds with: "we are in international airspace and your point is?". So goes a day on the job in the South China Sea as the Wasp and the F-35's approach. The US is holding the Trump card.

Starving Airline Geeks (I had a better headline but forgot it)

Aviation geeks form a whole new industry. New airplanes or at least the prospect of a new airplane churns out quantum of script about the subject which in turn churns out another trainload of paper embellishment about what a new airplane would be and another round of talking about what was just talked about and so forth. It is as if someone has lined mirrors reflecting into infinity someone’s statements about a New Medium Aircraft. I am too, am guilty of mirror gazing airline geeks into infinity at the mirror (mere) suggestion of a new aircraft.

Boeing has for a better part of a generation given fodder to the “geek” in which geeks in return assign advertising for its sage commentary. No one really makes money, but that isn’t the point, it’s all about having the real scoop on a new airplane idea. This all occurs during stage one of a geeks feeding frenzy. 

Currently, phase I in a series of feeding frenzies is being experienced which is the fun phase. Everything is valid as much as it can be a stupid statement. No one gets it "wrong" until phase II, aka “The Announcement”. Stage I only has renderings, sketches, and just plain old fashion “I-told-you-so”, speculations. That is where the 797 is today. Stage II has a photo op of an airplane model on a table (at an airshow) which will generate 1,000 articles out of that frenzy.

Tomorrow is coming soon with an announcement near the next airshow and the Boeing’s clock is ticking on a market not waiting much longer for an NMA announcement. Once it chooses the right engine, the right facilities, and suppliers, its game on for the 797. Boeing already knows how to make an airplane from the sum of its pile of parts. It also needs money and customers. Boeing has found the money and is rounding up the last of Airbus former customers when making an announcement point at the next airshow. Parts are already in the parts bin at the Boeing facilities around the world.

The blogger then gets a crack at stage III, “The critique”. They attempt to answer Why?, What?, and Where? in some kind of blogging sense. It then becomes fun for the reader of said blogs. None of it makes real sense until stage ???. What is important at this stage is the should of-would of-could of

intelligent remarks about a concept yet to be flown. Once it does fly in tests, the rancor increases with a crescendo until Qantas flies from Perth to London on a 787-9 or Singapore takes delivery on a 787-10. 

The world of blogging turns kinder and gentler with its “I told you so” commentary of how wonderful the flight was in business class with copious amounts of free food. The bloggers are so wise at the first specter of free food. Phase X is complete and onto London.

What about phase IV? This is a good blogging question for anyone retired on a pension with nothing to do but fly to Hawaii on a 787-9 in business class. Too many words so little time. Phase IV is about the first build, first flight, and first press conference. Bloggers get the first round of “I told you so’s in before something intelligent is said. Just read on and agree at this point as all geeks do in unison when an airplane is spotted.

Phase VIII is about what passengers think. They talk about food, jet lag and the lack of pillows in the economy. The airline customer talks about recalls, fixes and being in a fix during the first three years of service of a new NMA. The blogger repeats what everyone else has said whether “they” know anything or not. I’m a blogger, I know.

Phase infinity, “The Airshow”.

The airshow comes about all the time as if some kind herpes outbreak at a wedding reception. No one kisses but everyone smiles a lot. The airshow is about free advertising for whom you represent. Microphones dot tables more frequently than the latest tie and shirt posed in a photo. The airline geek is there too. A picture is taken means a blog is written about the picture. The hallway picture headlined an article about where to find the best free food at the airshow. 

Some blogger took a picture of a 737 Max tail cone and talked about the overhead bins on an A-380 parked at the other end of the show. Makes sense, they know there was an airshow and not necessarily being present at the airshow.

What about Phase IX, Orders? Now that’s some real writing meat! If Boeing gets 400 orders for its NMA at Farnborough Airshow, multiply that times ten, and that’s how many orders they will book in ten years. 

This is a scientific math formula derived from a blogger who went to a University one semester. First Airshow order announcement times ten equals’ program strength of 4,000 units. I too have a BS degree in business and it sounds right to me. BS stands for Blogger Smarts and it can be a business if computer savvy enough. Actually, accounting was my major and is now needed for counting orders before writing.

Therefore my scientific analysis based on statistics and rounded by regression analysis comes to about 375 NMA’s announced with 250 options at Farnborough when Boeing announces its 797. Times all this by ten years it will equal 3,750 orders and 2,500 options for its program ceiling.