Boeing Changes Its Public Tactics

This blog perceives a change in Boeing's management of public relations. This is long over due since Airbus plays a game of big announcements long after Boeing reals off a massive order announcements at the Dubai Airshow 2017 for 175 of its Max aircraft where Airbus is only seen at the Dubai finish line with "fewer" orders. The next big deal from Airbus comes with an announced 430 A320-NEO's near the end of the year. Airbus caught Boeing in a Mouth Breathing Awkward Moment (MBAM !!!).

Its no wonder that Boeing considers changing announcement strategy when considering how Airbus likes to "play the game" with its customers. Overall, the final numbers will bear out the mega builders competition in some sort of conclusion. However, Airbus seeks a bang-for-the-buck announcement format on newly minted orders after Boeing commits its own data causing MBAM moments.

Boeing on the other hand has held a policy of letting the customer run the announcement show through allowing customers the option of identifying any new finalized orders by name. Once a deal is signed Boeing can announce an order by customer name or restricts itself  as unidentified depending on what the customer wants. Traditionally, Boeing has updated its own order reporting as once a week update. The order reporting is changing in 2018 to a once a month order book update on its web site, making it more difficult for Airbus to play the announcement game when once a month reporting is installed by Boeing. In other words an Airbus announcement of 430 single aisle ordered will compare with a Boeing monthly total making the impact of a deal of this magnitude seem more realistic.

The year ending for 2017 is still counting on the Airbus side of its accountants as they still are working on boosting Airbus order numbers for its stockholders. Boeing reported a net 912 commercial aircraft orders. Next week Airbus said it will release its 2017 order number. The net number is key in this comparison.

Without Airbus December numbers, it reports 333 net orders through November 30, 2017. Boeing also reported 912 net orders by years end.  

What tells the observer is this, Airbus needs another 149 net orders and adding the 430 A320's just announced for matching Boeing's order book in unit numbers. The Airbus business model requires more orders added next week beyond the 430 A320 orders counted on, which is already reported by its press bulletins. Using "Airbus Data" from end of November requires it must show December orders having a total of 579 new orders booked in December to match the Boeing net of 912 units. Airbus could do it if it has sandbagged 600 orders for December during 2017.

Boeing Books 2017 Net Orders

Boeing ends up with 912 net orders. The important part is Boeing boosted its single aisle order book  with 745 737's combining NG and the Max numbers. It also booked 94 net 787 falling short of a book to bill ratio of one for its type. The Book to Bill Ratio stands at 69% for 2017. However, 2018 will record more 787 than markets may expect with several large orders pending in the commitment slot.

Airbus  will take a few more days compiling a comparison as it has not posted its December numbers at this time. The order for 430 A320's have not been added. Other orders from different models maybe added when it posts its order counts. The order battle will be closer than indicated from a sluggish Airbus order pace established during the year. Airbus typically waits (tries) for the end of the year to post surprises after Boeing posts it numbers. It's about the game!

Boeing's 2017 Order Wrap Includes 2-787-9's

Royal Air Moroc Signed For Two 787-9's today.    

Boeing should settle in at 844 net units with 971 gross orders. This suggesting a strong 2018 order year. No prediction here except for a 797 announcement should push Boeing beyond 1,000 units ordered next year.

"Skalkaho" Is a rough scribble through Chapter 6

The link provided takes you Skalkaho's introduction were all chapters can be accessed by several methods. 

Primary One: is found on the links provided below the main body found on the page Introduction.

Alternate-2: is found by Clicking on the upper left corner on  the word "Skalkaho" found on the upper left introduction page and is also found just above the words "A Journey in Adventure".

Clicking it will take you to a list of chapters/postings showing five chapters at a time on this page. The other chapters not visible can be access by clicking on the "More Post" button at the very center-bottom of the Skalkaho chapter/pages link mentioned (in the upper left corner as stated in instruction 2). 

Example: More Post

It All Seems Like A 767

It all seems like a restart of the 767 passenger version is eminent. Sans new technology engines it will install new weight saving components replacing the older versions or former generation "heavier" parts. The electronics bay could have micro seized foot prints traveling throughout the same old 767 air frame. Saving a ton here or there would make a newly minted 767 a respectable flying example in air for passengers. The A-330 program tried its NEO routine with limited market response. The 767 program is even hoping for a similar response but only as a place holder and not an augmentation to its own wide body line of aircraft. 

The A-330 erodes its sibling mate the A-350 in the market place and does not help either model well. As few orders for A-330 NEO were made and fewer orders for the A-350 occured when airline ordered a few of the A-330 NEO's instead of the A-350 as a cheap alternative.

The 767 restart rumor makes sense if the 797 is not ready for a prime time announcement. Those who may order a re-surging 767 model may also be an early customers for the 797. They may also operate older 767's in its fleet today. Boeing is poised to launch a 797 within its own time slot. All the customer wrinkles will be retired before such a launch announcement and all the Boeing innovations intended for the 797 will be resolved. It sounds like ten years before the 797 delivers. Hence the rumor of a 767 restart has some legs to the story. A renewed 767 is no augmentation of its popular 787 but it is a bridge to the 797's unannounced program. 

Boeing would hope to sell about 200 of its renewed 767 as a segue for its 797 announcement in 2020. The ten year entry into service mark is about right before a 797 is ready to go. It would allow time for first delivered 797 matriculation into its fleet over an additional five years thus bringing a renewed 767 retirement fifteen years out from its delivery.

Boeing doesn't hint about things as substantial as a dead 767 passenger program renewal, unless some serious wheeling and dealing has taken place in the background. The North American trifecta of United, Delta and American airlines has expressed interest in its 797 model. The all have 767 experience and they all have an established market for a 5,000 range of service. Coincidentally, it fits the 797 profile that has bantered about in the press. The deal making could conceivably offer a low priced 767 now and a fixed price 797 into the indefinite future. A one to one order pairing with the 767 and 797 is a possibility. A 797 launch time could be pushed out further building more momentum for its announcement moment. The 767 rumors are more of an unannounced reality.

Menu Airline The New Way To Fly

New airlines have found a way to encroach upon legacy airline routes. In this case, a look at transatlantic carriers is a good example. Much like a restaurant, the menu airline allows each customer to order off the menu according to a customers taste, price and need. Legacy airlines may sell a ticket for $499 but a menu airline could sell a ticket as low as $99 going from Boston to London. The $99 reserves a spot on the airplane where the real browsing on the menu starts and  trip price is not noticed. After all the seat cost $99.

• Needing luggage ? $39.99 per one standard bag
• Wanting food? $39.99 for two meals
• Adding entertainment or computer connectivity? $19.99 for the trip.
• Needing full Concierge service during departing or arrival? $39.99

Total added values= $140 added on ticket price of $99 during a budget airlines special promotion. This could go higher if a "discount" airline starting seat price is $199.

The above list is short and a passenger may have an option for the full buffet. An offering one price for key services during travel, but that price would not include all its offered services. The point of sale remains the seat price. The Customer culture is eager for that price and nothing else. They will pay for the extras without notice as so conditioned by traditional travel ticketing.

The menu offers a passenger a $99 ride and that's it. A ride, but the six hour ride would not even include a napkin for the seat. Its another way of marketing a new airline past the legacy airlines already entrenched on a primary course. Travelers compare ticket prices not services offered. A restaurant offers a steak for $6.99 but the salad and a potato costs another $5.99. The $12.99 restaurant is shied away by those cost conscience travelers who only look at the $6.99 price on the menu for a slab of cooked meat.

A menu airline could cost some serious money unless you analyze what you want or need throughout your travel status. Travel wise customers will wear what they will need for a 24 hour trip there and back. A vacationer will pay for full service because its part of the experience of enjoying time off. The budget airline hopes you are traveling for pleasure. Per day business allowance pays for the lowest cost seat. You will need business expense approval to plug in the computer.

Boeing Makes 159 Jet Sales During November

Boeing order below indicate a Robust book order tally for November. None of which includes what the Dubai Airshow. It is hoped Boeing will book those orders before January 2018.

Winging It Goes Gonzo Writer

I've been ready to move on to the next project for sometime. Winging It has been going for five years and I now have started a new project of writing a novel based on the American West at its start. There is an outline where this story will go and there is so much to fill in for the story. I wanted to share this new Blogging Link for your own enjoyment, I hope this story provides. The main part of this project allows the reader to look over the writer's shoulder while each chapter's draft is completed and posted for anyone's interest. It will be a year long project and Winging It will continue posting as events and time present itself during 2018.

Here is "Skalkaho's introductions" Link to: 

SKALKAHO - The Introduction 

...chapters will be posted as completed for your rough draft readings. Please follow this project as it may eventually have a completion by December 31, 2018. That is the goal. Your own goal is following the writing journey as a private audience experiencing a writer's first attempt at a story. Save the blogging posting link for future reference. I am already starting Chapter 2, chapter 1 is short at this time and it may need additional story information. Chapter 1 is called Skalkaho: Blackleaf Camp.

The Blog site is called "First Cut an Adventure In Writing" found at Skalkaho.blogspot.com . Use this as a search reference. (copy rights reserved by author)

The Giant Airshow Is Nothing More Than A Big Beauty Pageant :)

It's a time were airlines shows off  its bottom line, its  bulbous order book, and made-up looks. The big order reveal is not unlike the swim suit portion of a beauty pageant. Makers from all parts of the world, with its customers, love to reveal all the aforementioned parts by the showing its order book to the public. The static line is for gawkers who must have its up close and personal airplane fantasy satisfied. Venues are selling product that will enhance your "bottom line".

The 777X Shows Folding Wings

Cinco de Mayo Announces Contestants (TBA productions)

The crowd ohs and awes at weird looking aircraft as the make-up drips on the flight line. The talent competition comes and goes in vertical climbs having short take-offs and landings, with dancing on the runway. Even a parachute or two pop out of the sky. 

Then there is the grand promenade fly-over with clusters of multi formation bimbos suggesting how cool it looks when it puffs colored smoke out the "back end". Yes the Airshow is a beauty pageant where makers and customers alike put on a big show as found in Farnborough, Paris and Dubai. 

After which the trickery arrives as airshow pitchmen talk in circles of what? "The six zillion aircraft were sold after all MOU's are finalized. The headlines latch onto the word zillion and won't let go of it. They will save reality for another day when any deal making falls apart. No matter what, the six zillion  aircraft is the press release of the day. After the zillions are digested some even attempt to explain what it all means while starting each sentence with the word "If".

Having to compete with the press mania, any self respecting blogger must dig in and remark about the airshow de jour through having so many qualifying statements. The blogger is forced to look up words before writing begins such as "alleged", "purported" or "List Price", where the news is allowed to bombast its headlines with billions and zillions transacted at the "Timbuktu World Airshow", aka TWA. Wasn't TWA an airline at one time? No, that couldn't be, I think that would be SWA near Phoenix, Az. The S comes before T in the alphabet.

At least it sounds logical as both TWA and SWA were flying at one time or at the same time. However, the TWA event suffers a wind mishap involving sand and paint finishes. Reporting is tough and certain words are often used. Just wait for it before using the word "mishap". It can be used as it often is needed. 

Nothing is ever an accident or a disaster its just a mishap. Airlines try to stay away from any airplane "faults", as if it were someones else fault it happened. Once again airshows are beauty contests without having beauty, but it does have many models to view. Just keep an airshow word thesaurus nearby before blogging and don't write like you work for a news agency. 

Counting Airplane Orders Ain't For Sissies

The nebulous subject of counting airplane orders becomes a convoluted process at best. The press reports what it hears and in the world of semantics, what is said or indicated becomes a fill in the blank report by every writer of airplane orders. The key words and what it means is the first step in understanding of what happens at an airshow within an airplane maker’s venue. It is in its best interest, if it presents an order in the best possible light for bragging rights. In this case the Dubai Airshow is a good example to use for this discussion.

The Paris airshow is so long ago (June 2017) having many more customers ordering in play than Dubai had and so much has happened to those Paris orders. It becomes a nightmare explaining what has happened to those "orders" since the airshow. 

However, Dubai is much more manageable for this discussion. There were several major orders announced at the show. Specifically, the 40 Emirates 787-10, Avolon's 225 737 Max and finally Indigo Partners 430 units for the Airbus A-320 family of aircraft were announced.

The bantered around words were commitment, MOU and firm order. One headline stated Indigo Partner's placed the world largest order implying a firm deal. 

However, to avoid confusion for what occured, always refer to the Airplane makers own website listing those orders that are booked as firm orders. Airbus is making a mad dash with Indigo Partner's firming up those 430 A-320 NEO committed so it can add to its 2017 order counts.

The word "committed" is key in the reporting and it is not the same as ordering and is usually supported by some Letter of Intent (LOI). The back story of this announcement lists a handful of airlines that will be receiving these committed 430 aircraft. Within the announcement it is discovered the following airlines are customers of Indigo Partners for:

• ·       Wizz -       72  A320neo, 74 A321neo
• ·       Frontier - 100 A320neo, 34 A321neo
• ·       JetSMART -56 A320neo, 14 A321neo
• ·       Volaris -    46 A320neo, 34 A321neo

The total units come to 430 NEO's as mentioned. Indigo Partners negotiates with its airline customers and then negotiates with Airbus for these committed aircraft. It isn't a firm deal yet! It may have an LOI supporting the potential deal. Under ideal conditions it should go through. The affected parties have been working a long time to get to this point. Mark down that an LOI is a commitment with no contract yet signed, therefore the 430 NEO's aren't booked until Airbus reports the order contract and is signed and booked.

The MOU is an often used term and does not mean an order has placed as a completed "firm" transaction.  Memorandum of Understanding is a detail of what will occur when all parties are brought to the contract table. In fact most negotiations continue after an MOU is issued by the affected parties. It is a somewhat binding agreement over what will occur once all documents are completed to the participating parties satisfactions. The MOU would not include final prices but would include how many aircraft are required and what types requested. Pricing maybe included as a reference. Other services or product would be listed for contractual purposes. Everybody agrees with what is to be worked for on the final contractual order and purchase. An MOU is not a firm contract that can be booked. It is an over arching agreed upon statement for what will be accomplished concerning the potential firm order.

Referring back to the Airbus potential sale for 430 NEO's, it is possible changes could be made or the customer has further considerations needing clarification. The commitment status has a high likely hood of completion unless a disputed condition cannot be resolved. This alone does not make it a firm order yet. Legally, the customer acts in good faith over the commitment via its Letter of Intent and is bound by that LOI unless sale conditions change which would nullify its LOI. Examples could be, a customer could go bankrupt, or the maker could not possibly deliver the product as required. With Indigo Partner Airlines, the risk becomes greater but not likely there will be a failure from a customer commitment status.

A firm deal will costs participating customers money if the contract is violated by an order change. The manufacturer is bound by delivery and performance issues. If it cannot fulfill its end of its promise it may owe the customer money if it fails with contractual points. The word "firm" is a "done deal".  

When the press banters about the subject of orders it often uses its license of journalism by loosely using those terms or words mentioned above without accountability, because no one really knows, even those familiar with the process what the airline or maker has done when it says, "Commitment, LOI, or MOU". It could be all three conditions at the same time but no one really knows which until the customer or maker defines it at some future time.

The best counting method for orders is from the airplane makers-framer own website. Rely on it as it post its orders. Otherwise, a very confused airplane geek can say 430 NEO and 225 Max were sold in Dubai without having the Maker's website even reflect those orders as firm, even into next year.