Does The Dubai Forty Mean Something?

Emirates placed an order for 40 787-10's at the Dubai airshow. Another clue came forward recently from a remark about the 787-10's testing suggesting Emirates is fond of its flexibility.

Quote from the Charleston Regional Business Journal:

“Emirates has displayed immense confidence in the South Carolina-built 787-10s and has seen the maturation of the airplane during testing as well,” said Saj Ahmad, chief analyst with StrategicAero Research, in an email. “Coupled with Boeing’s rate hike to 14 airplanes a month, this is not the only sizeable 787 [order] we’ll see. There are others almost certainly ready to be revealed if they aren’t in the bag already.”

This brief comment suggests Emirates was walking hand in hand with Boeing during early validation tests on the 787-10. One question must of have been answered during the Emirates participation observing 787-10 testing. This model can stand the desert heat and deliver flying efficiency beyond what its competitor can do.

A second clue from the above quote indicates the 787-10's remarkable flexibility for long haul flights not formerly indicated by Boeing's own publications. The 787-10 has outperformed Boeing's own estimations documented before air frame testing was conducted. It is capable of longer distances than first reported. The 787-10 doesn't have to go beyond 7,000 miles, it just has to go where its potential customers travel. The Emirates business philosophy is right sizing capability within a family of aircraft which Airbus lacks. 

There is no A-350-800 it’s a paper airplane. The A-350-900 is a one trick pony and has more capability than needed, so it hauls that unused capability everywhere while only meeting maximum efficiency 10% of the time. The A-350-1000 steadily loses ground or has a stagnate order book since many airlines cannot find a slot within its business footprint. The 777X is a common ally to all of Boeing's other aircraft. The A-350-1000 only has one friend, that in the A-350-900, making it a family of aircraft I guess.

Airbus is losing the WB end of the airplane spectrum rapidly because it cannot connect the dots from single aisle to the A-380. Boeing has completed several important goals where Airbus has failed to do so in response. A short list below describes the Airbus shortfalls causing customers coming back to Boeing in numbers.

·      Incomplete A-350 Family from Top to Bottom.

·      Inability to counter the 777X program

·      Cannot counter Boeing's mid-range high density 787-10 slot with any of its aircraft.

·      Boeing buried its 747 Jumbo, Airbus can't give up the A-380 before its Break-even point. 

The "Dubai forty" 787-10 is a serious red flag for Airbus. Even if Emirates does place an order for another 30 A-380’s it will have a hard time staying with the A-380 as competitors continue with the Boeing family of aircraft. It will become a one-off super Jumbo carrier. The other airlines will nip its heals around the jumbo fleet. 

However, Emirates realize its ill-fated tacking move with the A-380 and it made a new tack in 2013 by ordering 150 of Boeing’s 777-X’s. Coincidentally, 150 units is a similar to its 142 A-350 orders it has on the Airbus order book. The 787-10 fills an important slot along with the 777X that will in time replace all it’s a-380’s. The total wide body book for Boeing’s "new wide body" stands at 190 not counting the 777-300-ER backlog.

Emirates has to replace its older 777’s in the next ten years. A problem posed with Boeing’s marketing team. Some of the long range Boeing commitment to its customers has been made with this Dubai 40 order. Emirates will need more aircraft in its fleet to replace both the A-380 and its older 777’s. Another airshow another day is the answer for this dilemma. Emirates will need another 100 wide body order in five years. Probably a 50-50 split with the 777X and the 787 family. It just has to wait to see if the 787-10 and 777X works as advertised during testing. It appears the 787-10 has accomplished its goals.

Emirates: "How Suite It Is"

The United Arab Emirates is installing first class suites towards the pointy end of its 777's. For those who work from 6:00 AM to 7:00 PM, here is a Dubai airshow promo of the the "Suite". No ticket price range for the seat was mentioned but when flying that high it is rude to ask how much it cost because by asking you can't afford it.

The Emirates New 777-300-ER  Suite

After studying this photo for some time the following complaints were listed.

• No Lou
• No Micro Wave
• No stocked refrigerator
• and finally no in-cabin personal attendant

The pitch is 40 square feet and boredom becomes a passenger's problem. It is much different in economy when passenger heights can vary from 19" to 80". Square foot comparisons could be made and  its a squeezing attempt from economy's  3.6 sq ft per seat compared with the suite's 40 sq ft. Suite coffee is free in fact after purchasing a suite's ticket everything is free. Using the price per sq. ft. scientific calculation for the ticket may indicate how much it would cost to buy a suite ticket? 

If an economy ticket cost $500 going 6,000 miles it works out to 2.3 cents per sq.ft-per seat-per mile.

The economy of scale takes $.023 times 40 sq ft times 6,000 coming up with $5,550 dollars. Add cruise ship gratuity rates and "incidental costs" it quickly becomes $6,500 dollars for a suite from here to there.

Airlines spend more time ciphering up a ticket price using a big spinning wheel similar to the ones found in Las Vegas, than what the Winging It team's clock indicated when fumble fingering a calculator. There should be a standard, not unlike an airlines efficiency metric called seat/ mile, when analyzing ticket prices. 

In this case it could be called sq.ft/seat/mile or Economy sq.ft./seat/mile and so forth. However it may be sliced-up, suites represent a ludicrous profit dollar where economy covers the trip's operational costs and Business class represents a mix between profit percentages and its operational costs. 

Emirates has a business plan and its involves copious amounts of cash. 

Winging It Said 50, Emirates Orders 40

Earlier, Winging It predicted about 50 787's would be ordered by Emirates in various models. However, (sometimes) a prediction can become wrong and it was missed by ten 787's and all 40 came-in as an Emirates order for 787-10's for $15.1 billion.

Winging It Quote: November 7, 2017

"So there should not have any additional 777X orders at this year's show. The only outlying is the 787-9 or  787-10. It could fill an Emirates fleet completeness having fifty ordered in a combination of the 787's. Its only speculation at this point, and no rumor is floating on that matter." 

Winging It Article Link 

Dubai and The Tip Of The Wing November 7,2017

The show is just starting, it ain't over yet!

Every Good Airplane Story Has a Beginning, Middle and End

Boeing has reported its on an exploratory mission for a new aircraft called MoM, NMA or 797 to name a few tags for this mission. The story begins with its chief competitor Airbus, with its A-321. Then there was the subplot with a thing called a 757 suffering a production retirement without a replacement in sight because of other ambitious projects; the 787, then Max and finally the 777X programs. Airbus was allowed to run the range of opportunity within an important segment chewing away at the single aisle big end of this market.

Chapter two begins with a simple title called "The Gap." It is an abandon place where airplane framers feared to tread, but had to go if it were to become the hero of this story. This gap is wedged between the 737 or A-320 single aisle airplanes and the dual aisle 787 wide body aircraft. The mathematicians were asked what a MoM would look like?

They tallied the inches in width of the 787, then added the inches in width of the 737 and  divided its total by two to come up with a gap airplane width. The calculation was (216" + 132") / 2 = MoM or 174 inches, or for people liking feet in instead of inches its about 14.5 feet. The maker said we need an XWB MoM so it added another 5 inches to 14.5 and came up with a 15 foot wide cabin. The "bean counters stepped in with two aisles and seven across seating. The "knights" working late poke and prod its engineering way through big windows.

Studies where made with all its customers and more studies were conducted by its accountants and a summary report indicated a 797 "might" be a good idea. The maker then asked for more studies taking the story to the middle of it all. Its evil competitor was not impressed since they could do the same only 5" wider than the hero of this story even after it made its MoM 5" wider than 14.5 feet. 

The story becomes complicated in the middle chapters. The serf's of this kingdom demanded less costs and the maker had to build its NMA selling for about $70 million as it would replace its old type selling for $200 million at list prices. The costs would be huge when considering an all new manufacturing and product concepts coming forward. Questions arose, could orders from the serfs be enough to pay for the development and then make a profit for the King?

The bookmark is on chapter 10 at this time and all the questions do not have answers so another study was ordered by its "wise" King from its northern county from the Northwest kingdom. 

Out of nowhere comes news that the $200 million beast was not dead since the study and surveys suggested a launch customer for the 797 needs more time replacing its older fleet of beasts. A certain serf has about 40 aging beasts grazing the airspace and it would like those replaced by a like beast until the NMA is ready. Other serfs once again questioned this idea with a big What?, as they also place some beast orders?

This story is nowhere near an ending it only has moved to the part where it has established a villain, a MoM and some studies so far. 

The King (of the) County issues another proclamation, "a study must be conducted this time "we" really mean it, and hear Ye, hear ye, call in the bean counters!" 

The serfs of the world were gathering at a ball near Castle Dubai, awaiting to hear about the new study conducted by Prime Minister, Prince Everett. 

A proclamation was issued from Castle Dubai from Prince Everett, "Long live MoM".

Chapter eleven-eleventy starts with a rumble of jet engines and the serfs cry out, "what happened to Seventy-seven (million dollars)?" 

Some said, "we won't live long enough to see the MoM" and others just cried out, "NMA, NMA, NMA".

The King replied, "subtract two from eleven and add two sevens and you will have your 797, there is no seventy with your seven. 

At this point math becomes too hard for the serfs. 

The King chants, "one more study, one more study, one more study!" So all the polling data flooded in from all corners of the earth. 

The evil empire says, "the market is too small and we can still do better", after offering no further explanation. 

The King was distraught but unfazed by the evil empire's slighted quip. 

He proclaims, "we have studies but I won't tell you what they say!"

The serfs become doubly anxious over having no NMA and feel orphaned from a non-existent MoM. They start wearing black Tee Shirts with a printed slogan, "Long Live The 797".

Not Mom

Photo credit from The Telegraph

Chapter 15 starts the beginning of the end part of this story long after the Castle Dubai Ball had ended. Skipping to the last chapter, it starts with MoM going to the Farnborough England Ball and it slays the dragon. The maker proclaims, "The end will come after the last study is completed."

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A great support Team that encourages you everyday when faced with problems. Snickers-the-dog encourages me everyday to get busy even when I'm tired. She is the best.

More 777-300ER Orders = More 777X Orders

One critical point Boeing had to face was a diminishing  777 300-ER order book in front of the initial production of its new 777X models made in the same assembly space. Boeing needed more 777-300-ER's ordered before it could build its first 777X. The by-product of this sentiment is the unintended consequence of selling more 777-X's than anticipated because of the strength of sales of the 777-300-ER. 
The Dubai airshow next week will feature at its front and center the Emirates newest 777-300-ER delivered. This 777 will have a fantastic customer environment with its expansive seating arrangement, it wants to impress the world with this static display. Hardly a death knell for the 777-300-ER. 

Emirates may be up to something once again (2013 777X orders) and it will become known next week what it is.  It is also important to note that Emirates massive show display in the main pavilion is only a few feet away from Boeing's somewhat smaller display at the main entrance going into the show. The 777-300-ER should get an order nod at the show with some more orders. The pride of the middle east sits just outside with Emirates complete fleet by type on static display. The 777-300-ER it just received is a star at the show.

Boeing had a plan that it needed more 777's classics until the 777X made its first delivery in 2020 or possibly sooner. Boeing has about 111 classic 777's including its freight version to build and deliver until the 777X is ready as of October 31, 2017. It also has 326 of its 777X's on order as well. In total Boeing has an October ending backlog of 437  777 units it will build over the next half dozen years.

Seeking Alpha just reported; "China Southern Airlines airlines committed to the purchase of 30 Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft and 8 Boeing 777-300-ER's..."

Boeing, whom is counting the days and weeks it needs to keep its 777 assembly line full, prices the 777 classic so low its an offer a customer can't refuse. Boeing is looking beyond the 777X entry into service as demonstrated at next weeks Dubai Airshow with Emirates' 777 static display. The eight 777-300-ER just signed for by China Southern demonstrates that a full conversion from the 777-ER to the 777X production schedule will allow for more 777-ER sales until full rate 777X production is achieved.

Dubai Airshow could be a 777 completeness show where Boeing will end up with enough classic 777's ordered and more 787's to boot. After-all Boeing is rubbing shoulders with Emirates at the main pavilion's front door. A second point is for every 777-300-ER ordered it will represent a fleet renewal opportunity for Boeing's 777-X's over the next 10 years. If airline growth continues as predicted, the 777X will dominate the LR Wide body growth. Instead of 326 units currently on order it could conceivably exceed 500 total 777X sales by 2021. Boeing will have made the production assembly conversion from 777-300-ER to the 777X and it will have been a success.

Boeing-Airbus Backlog Wars

1. Single Aisle Battle

Wide Body Battle

Total (War) Book Value and Backlog Units Boeing Vs. Airbus

Boeing Wows Its Order Book 11-9-17

Boeing orders stayed quiet since October 26th, until... it now has a big order book reveal of 69 orders booked in the last two weeks. All that can be said, is wow! Below is the update chart according to Boeing's own data provided on Boeing.com. However this is a Winging Chart for its own tracking sanity.

Boeing Order Recap 11-9-2017

The important notes are the torrid pace of 787 orders for YTD 2017. It now stands at 96 net 787 orders. A second observation is how strong the Max and NG single aisle program is doing in 2017. A combined net 440 single aisle units have been ordered this year. The Airbus order log for November can't be updated until early December when its posts its own order progress including November 2017. It is probably safe to say Boeing will top Airbus in total book value and units for 2017 unless an order materializes out of thin air before final counts are reported. The total net Boeing units order now stands at 605 units for 2017 making a 1 to 1 book to bill ratio a true possibility.

Boeing's 14 A Month Announcement for 787's Is Much Bigger News

The Boeing slight of hand announcing of an additional two units a month on top of its consistent 12 a month 787 production, signals something big is going on with Boeing in the back rooms. A long standing Randy's Journal has been quiet for almost five months and he is Boeing's VP of marketing. This other flag raised signals Randy is really busy. Increased production and a silent Boeing VP Randy Tinseth indicates something big will be breaking soon. It maybe in small chunks or a large mega order. 

It is known that several 787 small orders are floating about. One with six Egypt Air and another 10 coming into a "mention" by a quietly reported airline emergence. These don't represent a mega order but signals a high level of activity is going on behind the scenes and Boeing is winning some small but important battles against its competitor, Airbus.

The 14 a month 787 production announcement tells a story that Boeing's teamwork is paying out order dividends at the least. The production research, pending orders and accounting have all come together and it is agreed fourteen 787 a month is sustainable and needed. The sustainable word becomes important as it is a direct reference link to its marketing arm. Boeing has more 787 sales going into 2018. Teamwork from top to bottom analyses everything before a production announcement like this is made. All the corporate cogs and wheels are turning smoothly.

Keeping a closely held hand private keeps the press guessing on what will happen next for the wide bodied industry. The Boeing emphasis is about the 787-10 and 777X programs. It is an often repeated comment by Boeing there will be more 787-10 sales after it enters into service with Singapore Airlines. Even though it will not fly as far as the A-350-900 or -1000, it will fly more efficiently within its market segment. The segment is high density passenger load under 6,000 miles. It will do that better than an A-350-900 which is always carrying along its long distance capability when flying within the highly lucrative under 6,000 mile market. That is why more 787-10's will be ordered.

The 777X is another big deal Boeing will churn out in the next couple of years. Boeing has dialed up its new plane development recipe since the 787-8 early days. Boeing now knows how run a program for success while using its all new technology at its disposal. The Everett wing plant was not a show stopper but a game changer for the 777X program. It had the equipment subcontractor just down the street and it had proprietary carbon fiber technology in its grasp. Hence the wing plant, is now making 100' wing spars with automated equipment. The assembly plant is next door by only several dozen feet.  Sounds efficient.

Boeing's new theme is to control what you can control and hire out those things which would be inefficient for it to do for itself. Boeing has pulled back in some of its airplane related build constructs as contractors did not meet Boeing's expectations of a supplier partner. The fourteen a month 787 announcement is an indicator Boeing has control over its wide body programs.

Another mention for the 777X is a note where the 777-9X replaces the 747 and the 777-8X replaces the 777-300-ER. Considering the A-380 dismal order numbers during the last three years having 777-9X orders could effectively kill the A-380 program. 

However, in a A-380 make-over developing new suites and luxurious seats will make the A-380 a desirable frame for those who can afford the ticket to cruise in the air like an Ocean going vessel it so wants to be. So far the A-380 in twelve years, has sold about 317 flying cruise ships and delivered about 216 of its type. The 777X program in the last four years sold 326 777-X's before its first delivery. 

A philosophy for the 777X program is that it has a  bigger market for people who need to get there in comfort at a lower price allowing them to spend their resources at the destination. The A-380 is selling the journey is better than what the destination offers. If flying from London to Hawaii and watching TV in Bed is a must, then the A-380 suite is for you. Boeing is betting more people will book a flight having substantial amenities exceeding those found on most other aircraft at a price most other people can afford.

Using an old American football metaphor, Boeing is dinking and dunking its way down the field with its array of wide body types and Airbus is throwing long on every down with its A-350's and A-380's. Boeing has a very good prevent defense.

The 767 Bridge to The 797

Rumors are running the gauntlet of conjecture regarding starting up the 767-300-ER line again. It was closed about three years ago and has since been relegated to freight and the military business endeavors.

The two proposals using the 767 and 797 models can be measured side by side in a theoretical look.

The 797 would beat the 767 in every category listed except maybe the long range distance which is yet to be determined in the theory model. The 797 will be lighter, faster and somewhat roomier than the 767-300ER. It will incorporate the latest Boeing 737 777, and 787 innovations. The to be determine column (TBD) of the 797 is an unknown quantity but Boeing can easily achieve an improvement over the 767 in every category. The only compelling reason  for buying the 767 at this time is a bigger deal is in the works. Buying a 767 now is an order for the 797 launch announcement later. The expected life of a new 767-300ER would be in the ten year range where the 797 would replace it, unit by unit at a preferred customer price. Not only would a new 767 order become very cheap it would lock in a low ball 797 price later. 

All this talk about a 767 order is really talk about acquiring a 797 fleet within the next ten years and United Airlines would be a prime launch customer for the 797 signaled by all this 767 talk.