Emirates-Boeing Deal May Be A Feature at Dubai Airshow

Now news or evidence today suggest Boeing has closed with Emirates for a BIG wide body order not to announce until a later date. If true, and most experts believe this to be so, then Boeing will exceed taking in more than 100 787 during 2017. Winging It predicted earlier this year Boeing would go +100 with 787 orders. There are several publications with reliable sources expressing a huge order surge coming from Emirates for disclosure at a later date. The Dubai Airshow is a likely announcement venue.

Winging It Blog:

Boeing Sides with Emirates At Dubai

Post and Courier:

Analyst: Emirates' long-awaited Dreamliner order a 'done deal'

Puget Sound Business Journal: 

Boeing snares big 787 order from Emirates, aerospace analyst says

Strategic-Aero-Reseach:

“Done Deal” – Emirates Selects 787s Over A350s

Is The 797 Designed to Move More Than Passengers?

The 797 is not a incremental aircraft wedged between the single aisle Max and the dual aisle 787. It is an aircraft that has a dual purpose which the other types can't claim. Moving passenger is job 1 and then moving Airbus is Job 2. The 787 was supposed to move Airbus out and then came the A-350. 

Winging It Companion Article 7-9-2017:

If Boeing Gets The 797 Right, Then What?

However, the true impact on Airbus came at this year's airshow. Both framers had a matured WB program and a similar backlog of around the 700's in units to  be delivered. The time around Paris should of been a 50-50 split in WB orders using conventional reason. However, something changed for both makers of medium WB CRFP aircraft. Boeing flat out stole the show, and put A350 proponents to rest. Boeing out sold Airbus' medium wide body at the show and then after the show just for good measure. Both manufacturers where positioned to do something average in a so far tepid sales year.

Boeing stole the show starting with the Single Aisle announcing the 737 Max 10. Then it announce another 30, 787-9's from AerCap. After the show which a long held undisclosed commitment for 20 777-X's and 19 787-10's came in as a firm order. Airbus just ran out of aviation gas during June and it showed. The pace will quicken for Airbus as Boeing ponders its NMA and Airbus can't prepare for what the NMA will be, so it must wait until Boeing's announcement. Airbus will then react with either an A-321 Max beater, or it will have to compete with Boeing's gap-liner. The 797 won't be a rendition of the Max-10 nor will it be a dressed down 787-300. Boeing won't say and that says a lot about what predicament Boeing hopes to put Airbus into when it started with the 787 Dream.

In all, Boeing increased its 2017 order book up to 79 Boeing 787's and 33 Boeing 777's totaling,  112 wide body orders since January 2017. In contrast Airbus has booked only 33 wide body including the A-330 and A350 types. Boeing overwhelmed Airbus by 3.4 times its number of wide body during the first six months of 2017. Even though this is a snapshot look at mid year, things can change, but the change that is seen is for the 787 family of WB aircraft as orders remain strong and A350 orders have weaken during the last 36 months. Boeing is about to launch its A-321 killer where the 737-10 Max holds the A-321 in place for the killer punch that is coming. The 797 will not be an incremental change for Boeing's line of aircraft. It will be everything from Max through X! 

Every proven and established technology will be included in the 797. All that would remain is testing of pairing the 797 with its technology taken from other programs.

Airbus has a lot to think about as the A-380 counts down backlog in a waning market for double-decks with four engines. Do they build an all new Gap-liner or re-do the A-321 with everything NEO again? It waits for a Boeing announcement for that answer. 

John Leahy, Airbus Chief Salesman echos this sentiment; "We will have the luxury of sitting there, looking at what they do, and answering at a later date” with something better". 

Airbus wants to lead from the rear.

The technique Airbus uses to date is react to everything Boeing and now the American giant has caught on to the Airbus game style. Airbus does not do cutting edge well or hasn't done it since inventing the joy stick pilots fly with its family of aircraft. Boeing will build the 797 where it will expose Airbus for they pretend to be, a leading edge builder of aircraft. The 797 will kill Airbus aspirations going forward. No one foresaw Boeing receiving 112 wide body orders by June 30, 2017. Its a "market proclaimed down year" for airplane orders which also happens to be better than some "up years" for Boeing's order book.

The 797 is designed to move Airbus out of the way.

Boeing Outlook, Math, and Stuff

If 0 were the center of the universe, then any number is a deviation from that center. True or not the definition of smoothing with statistics or recognizing a seasonal value against a straight line, results with a big math understanding for which all people who aspire to become decision-makers must come to know during their own educational portion of life. Without a written mechanism such as math there would be no understanding of an event occurring and why it occurs.

To further illustrate this convoluted idea, any action or reaction in nature can be measured with mathematical calculations. A rose grows 6” tall another 24” inches tall from the same plant. What will the third rose grow next to the first two? Math should tell that outcome. One person may take (24-6)/2 and then come up with a 9” Rose for the third growth. A second mathematician goes old school and uses a basic average (24+6)/2= 15”. A third mathematician from college uses seasonality and trending functions applied to the first formula, for a power point show in the Paris Airshow.

The question before the industry is, “What potential does the airline industry have for selling airplanes for the next 10 or 20 years”? 

   

What demand numbers for each class of airplane exist going forward?

Fortunate for eggheads there are computers which can store dates, data and complex math formulas for those answers. Enter in current date and then a future date to the single aisle aircraft division and the computer heats up a little producing a neatly generated report in both paper and electronic power point manner.

Boeing has just done that with the Jumbo sized aircraft. The world only has only a possible few more orders for giant passenger Jets during the next twenty years. The 747-8i has been pronounced dead on arrival.

After reading through the Boeing.com website for its 20 year 2017 airplane outlook, the numbers change in steps from the 2016 outlook it provided. Instead of 39,000 aircraft looking forward it goes forward with about 41,000 in 2017. Slight adjustments to the whole forecast as expected from YOY accounts.

What changes in the calculation are the data streams which affect things like trend lines and seasonality? The current trend direct is driven by fuel prices at this time, and it has flattened the demand for wide body orders. The seasonality issue is a factor from refined statistical analysis which is affected by world conditions where people are willing to fly or not and documenting expansions of travel routes during financial cyclic periods or driven by other factors.

Imputing data and formula bundles in the computer is a continuous process, where every day a change occurs in the market place or industry and a math adjustment follows those changes. The outcome is a snapshot in time where next month after the show those forecast numbers have become old and stale but at a small rate of change. Any change is then added to the forecast formulas thus updating what has been presented.

The conclusion to all of this mumbo-jumbo, is Boeing can chose its own data complimentary to its own goals and skew outcomes towards slighting its competition and likewise from the competitor for doing the same thing to Boeing. 

A further conclusion is the 747-8i has faded and the A-380 is rapidly following the 747 into oblivion. The rising stars are small to medium wide body and the Jumbo replacements such as the 777X family of Aircraft. Airbus has thrown down on the A-350-1000 but it will not match the Boeing 777X, however it has its own niche above the 787-9 and just below the 777-8X capacity. The 787-10 is another specialty airplane using its regional range while not having an unused long range capability like the A-350-1000 has in its own separate market zone. The 787-10 is an intercontinental people mover and the A-350 -1000 is built for World -wide travel competing for the few 777X in that market segment.

This digression of this discussion is an offshoot of the above forecasting whimsy. The Boeing data aligns with its corporate strategy without using biased assumptions for its math modeling. Boeing made a case to bury the 747-8i once and for all and pulling the A-380 down with it. This opens a door for the 797, a small mid body mid-range aircraft having a disclosed 5,000 unit market potential, as mentioned in its Paris outlook reports. 

The KC-46 Tanker Drama

Not many people has followed the Pegasus saga or it's formally known as the KC-46 Tanker as Boeing is testing and making for the US Air force. Long in the tooth is a fixed cost program coming in later than desired by the military. The first 19 were to be delivered in 2017. The Air Force has now ordered 35 without receiving its first copy. The Low Rate Initial Production (LRIP) acronym is a buzz label for building stuff in slow motion until the manufacturer gets it dialed in for Full Rate Production (FRP). The Air Force has approved through 3 LRIP orders.

The Tanker testing and validation process is 90% complete. The tanker is configured with drogue and center line refueling points. The bigger  rigid, fly-by-wire refueling boom telescopes out to deliver 1200 gallons per minute The The tanker’s center line hose-and-drogue system and wing tip aerial refueling pods (WARP's) systems supplied by Cobham (Hall 2b E156) each offload fuel at 400 gallons per minute.Drogue lines are just like gasoline hoses at the pump but extend out at a safe distance for the war fighters needing fuel. These drogue delivery systems are currently a work in progress. The center line is ready for prime time.

Problems with design and wiring have tumbled the time to delivery backwards affecting the WARP's system. The WARP delivery phase will occur in early 2018 at this time. The Pegasus will start delivery at year's end 2017 without WARP testing complete. The first three KC-46 LRIP batches will flow forward quickly as Boeing now moves 20 in the production line at this time.

The program was 90 percent complete with the requirements of obtaining an amended type certificate from the FAA for the 767-2C baseline freighter with tanker-system provisions, and 60 percent complete toward securing a supplemental type certificate for the full KC-46 tanker.

Boeing Steps Up Delivery Plan For KC-46 Pegasus Tanker: AINonline

Wide Body Orders Who's Doing What To Whom

Winging It has taken a notion that an airline company plans its immediate fleet needs within a five year cycle. Order books have filled up the Wide Body type such as the 787 and A350. The following review attempts to remain objective in its analysis but a counter view is expected from a Boeing slant. Below is a five year cycle of gross orders from January 2012 through December 2016. Most customers expect a longer delivery wait than historical production data from manufacturers deliver performance.

A 777-300-ER is an immediate delivery within three years. The 787 family of aircraft maybe five years or longer and the same for the A350. There are model variances within the manufacturer ability to deliver in a five year time frame.

Why the five year time frame? Most customers have plans and resources which take five years to evolve and those customers try to have some kind of just-in-time fleet management which will synchronize with the aforementioned plans and resources. However, the competitive nature from customers have filled up the wait lists beyond seven years for certain models such as the 787 and A-350. Some models are in a slow order pace and can fill an order quicker such the 777-300-ER. The 777X is a lady in waiting since it won't enter service until about 2020. There are no straight lines for the delivery schedule if ordering today. 


A further examination is from a chart below which may surprise some as notions of supremacy of one framer of WB over the other where in fact it is a close contest after-all.

Five Year Ordering Chart from 1-2012 through 2016 

The above chart are wide body gross orders over the last five years and much can be analysed from the gross order number.

Gross orders are used as a guideline for an apple to apple comparison. Net number are a more accurate number set as conversions and cancellations are figured into the data. Making the analysis is simpler if using gross numbers and assumes no order changes.

Discussion Points:

• Gross Units Ordered is a common rule

• The timeline from announced new models do not always sync up with a competing model.

• Timeline for retired models do not always sync up with a competitor model actively ordered.

• Market trends for WB Models are volatile.

• Raw numbers indicate a very close competition.

Boeing has a marginal lead of wide bodies ordered over the last five years. Its 1,150 gross WB ordered is 68 more than Airbus which its lead could be wiped out in one airshow order announcement. 

Boeing announced the 787 about thirteen years ago where it amassed a considerable order book before the data started a tally since 2012. The Airbus A-350 was announced about 2006 and was in a peak  order period where it received a solid number of its A350 orders after 2012. Timing of this data is affected by program order capability.

Both the 777 and A-330 family of aircraft were sold at extreme discounts so the manufacturer could 
transition from the 777-ER to the 777X and the A-330 CEO  could transition both the A-330 NEO and A-350 models. Both manufactures were jockeying airplane model types combating each others moves in anticipation of market demand.

The above chart has provided matching of models in an attempt to best illustrate some kind of head to head WB order battle as exampled by the 787 vs the A-330 and the 777 vs the A350.

A summary account determines the following: 

The A-350 and A-380 are both stalling with its orders while the 787 and 777X have taken -off with robust ordering. 

The Airbus A-330 line-up is causing the WB competition to be very close, but it can't sustain its reach unless the A-330-9 NEO can sustain an order influx. 

As close as the gross order numbers are, Boeing has positioned itself with a strong wide-boy offering from top to bottom using freight and passenger airplane orders in combination creating an order synergy for which Airbus lacks.

The Dreamliner Has Entered The Clean-up Phase

The airline market place has for the last five years been at a tug of war for wide body dominance. On one side is the 787 Dreamliner and on the side the A350 "knock-off-liner" (no name available at this time other than A350). Every airplane start-up must have phases it goes through as a simple requirement for all discussions. Therefore, phases for the 787 march towards airline supremacy must be list for any relevant discussion. 

Boeing's 787 Dreamliner five phases:

• Shock and Awe
• Conflagration
• Customer ordering march to the Sea Change
• Airbus counter "offensive"
• Clean-up

The A350 (no name) Five stages 

• Me too. Check
• XWB by five inches. Check
• Loyal Customer Ordering, Check
• Offensive ramblings from John Leahy (running away this fall?) double check?
• Build it slower and they will watch, Check

Jumping to bullet point five for each maker is where the industry finds itself today. The Boeing point is exemplified in the news today from a simple stage called, "Clean-up". This is a topic worthy of a whole article more than five pages long. Five pages long is beyond my pay grade. In order to go five pages one must use links for further reading.

Air Travel (Air Travel: All the New Flights So Far in 2017)

Cleaning up the market is where Boeing is today. They have reach several marketing achievements in the last month. The Singapore Air deal added 19 787-10's and 20 777-9X's to its book and then another 30 AerCap 787-9's during a down year. The 70 wide body signed-on recently illustrates a solid clean-up during a down the market. On the other hand, Airbus nowhere came near Boeing in the last month wide body order onslaught it booked about 22 of its older A300 and its newer A350-900. It is building about 5 A350-9's a month. Airbus has delivered 30 A-350's this year compared with Boeing's 65 of its 787. The watching list of journalist keeps growing for the A-350 delivery flow.

Looking at the Air Travel article link above is an almost everyday story when Boeing makes a 787 delivery, a new route opens.

"Amsterdam

Boosting its European Dreamliner network, Etihad Airways will deploy its new Boeing 787-9 aircraft to fly to Amsterdam, starting September 1, and Madrid from October 1 from Abu Dhabi, UAE. The 787-9 will also operate seasonally to Athens during the summer months."

The whole article is full of Boeing product going out the door to various new route locations. Even though it doesn't often reveal the type or maker of aircraft within it article on new routes, it would take further analysis to sort out the clean-up of the sky ways by maker. Looking at the order book back end, determines future plans for routes and Boeing is having a statement year with its wide body sales. The ultra-expensive big bodied airplanes are tough to move with a $250-350 million asking prices for each frame.

The other bullet points echo’s the progression of the 787. The shock and Awe is the initial announcement of the Boeing Moonshot for all things not proven but anticipated. Conflagration is the flaming path to first flight, including the 7-7-07 roll out. The mounting order flow during the first three years after the announcement changed the aviation world. Airbus had to counter with the A350 even though it had previous stated Boeing essentially couldn't do it. Boeing currently mopping up wide body sales in a tough market.

The Airbus path is not as promising even though it didn't have well publicized difficulties as Boeing had. Airbus has second hand left-overs all the way with its dumb down technological infusions when compared with the Boeing offering.

The "Me Too" announcement three years after the Boeing's announcement was hypocritical after it had lambasted Boeing for the attempt at an all new wide body offering. Airbus started off on its left foot. It had to do something better, so it went bigger by five inches. In nine across sitting a passenger space increases by less than a 1/2" or if giving the aisle, brushing-off room by another 1/4" it’s not XWB at all as intended by its initial announcement.

Almost every buy order came from the Airbus customer order list. Where Boeing crossed the customer line more often in its order book since each framers offering was announced.

John Leahy couldn't ever let it go as he often railed on the Boeing product not being as wide as his XWB. He may retire this year leaving Airbus with big shoes to fill. Maybe all his complaints have lost its validity as more 787's are ordered every year and Airbus receives the left-overs for its order book.

Airbus is building the A-350 at a steady pace but slower than Boeing did during its first 30 months with it’s 787. Remember the battery fires, Boeing stopped delivery for two months and still got on track. Airbus has delivered only 30 this year after six months. Boeing with a well advanced product stream has delivered 65 787. It is important to note Boeing is currently building three different model types where Airbus is only producing its A350-900 and testing its A350-1000. Boeing is in testing with its 787-10.

I am sure the A350 is a good aircraft and better than prior models but it is not a great aircraft from its short comings reaching the technological goal post advancements. Boeing can now build upon solid ground from a formerly unproven concepts. Airbus refused to take chances with its A350. They used proven technologies that Boeing pioneered but it did not go beyond hydraulics or a central computing core system as Boeing had achieved. In time Airbus will have to catch-up to Boeing's proposals as customers are buying in the wide body market with approximately 37% A350 and 63% 787. This does not even include the 326 777X's booked or recent 777-300ER's.

Ever Wonder What A Winging IT Writer Looks Like?

It must be the dog days of summer to write something so vane. One of my visits to Denver via the Denver International Airport includes a must stop at the famous Mexican restaurant by the TV series which referred to Casa Bonita in Denver, Co.  A "No Sopapillas" joke line made by

"South Park" and pays homage to Casa Bonita food having "No Sopapillas ?" that day. 

The author had a sketch made still hanging on the wall at home. Winging IT's, "Trapperpk" clings to the mountainside every day.

The Trapper's vanity strikes at the heart of Casa Bonita with a true family experience staying in Denver, Colorado. A sketch was made of the author not far from the waterfalls.

Two Video Features of Casa Bonita, Denver.

1.

2.

Okay, so the Airport is pronounced WEIRD International.

8 Conspiracy Theories About The Denver Airport That'll Freak You Out

Winging IT is weird but no one cares. Denver International Airport is for its rejection of Disney Land's "Pirates of the Caribbean Ride", which is almost totally under the ground. People just come to Denver for the airport ride underground and then onto Casa Bonita burritos with a side of sopapillas. 

If Boeing Gets The 797 Right, Then What?

The much discussed and speculated A321 NEO buster goes further than just breaking the Airbus back. If Boeing gets it right, the plane will go further into the Boeing playbook and reorganize its single aisle division. This commentary covers the 800 pound "IF" sitting in the room. The 797 designed right will encroach upon the Boeing Single Aisle top end while filling its gap, as a segway to its 787 family. Airbus will be disrupted as its single aisle and dual aisle offering will be over matched for a new Boeing dual aisle and engine 797.

The 737-9 and 737-10 is a single aisle marginal offering for the gap of things flying. The 737-Max 8 may become a part of a single aisle duo in Boeing's line-up. A perfect storm is a Boeing line-up by 2030 of a 737-Max 7, and 737 Max 8/200 partnering with a 797-8 and 797-9 concept. The 737-10 and 737-9 become an awkward single aisle offering when compared to a 797's comfort and passenger efficiency. Boeing will realign its model offering stumping Airbus on what to do. It is clear to see Boeing is once again shooting the moon on the cheap using its vast technology bank for flying machines.

The 797-8 should carry 200-220 passengers and fly an ultimate 5,000 miles. A 797-9 should carry 220-250 passengers and fly 5,000 miles easily. The 737-Max 7 is the 150 seat commuter offering while the 737 Max 8 and its 200 stable mate will carry up to 200 passengers. No need to stretch out single aisle into a nightmare boarding or disembarking. Let a twin aisle do the number crunching when passengers want to move to and fro.

Boeing is taking its time because there is more in play than a one model gap filler. It must have all options on the build table before announcing. Every media outlet assumes a one and done 797 gap filler referred as a New Medium Aircraft (NMA). Boeing is reinventing its offering for several purposes.

• A market shift to rising passenger demand
• A market requirement for longer medium routes.
• The newly announced Max-9 and Max-10 is a stop gap until further notice.
• A 797 completes Boeing and troubles its competitor.

The 797 makes sense only if it realigns Boeing's type offering. The investment is not one dimensional with one model for its type. Boeing recognizes it must be more aggressive with a vulnerable Airbus line-up. It needs to build passenger capacity with comfort and a seven across 797 will address both needs. Secondly, Boeing sees an expanding route distance as more markets adjust and the single aisle falls into its own gap of not going far enough with over-packed seating.

Having stated a few topics of where Boeing may go aligns with the time it is taking to make a decision. It is pondering more than just a 797 model bridging between the 737 to the 787. It is remaking its aircraft line-up going far forward in time. Once a 797 is concocted, it will go clean sheet on its single aisle family. The 787 family will need an upgrade after 2030. Boeing will wait until it has made money with the 787 when the money pit it created building this duo aisle is filled in with its own profits.

Time line watching for progress is one step at a time. The steps Boeing is taking is becoming a straighter path for regaining the high ground Airbus has assaulted. A highly functional family of aircraft from single aisle to dual aisle is the goal. There are too many single aisle types and not enough dual aisle types at this time for the changing market demand and demographics.

Boeing's Gross Order Campaign 2017 YTD Review

Boeing has gone halfway during 2017 and there are many more unanswered questions but from a positive outlook. It has out dueled Airbus into a substantial lead but it maybe not enough for this years campaign. The second half of the year will be reserved for some surprises for which it is hard to determine the outcome for either mega maker.

Boeing has netted about 381 orders as reported by its website, Boeing.com. Airbus orders remain tepid at 203 net orders. The net effect comes from cancellations and conversion from one model to another. However, the gross count score card is illustrated below with various charts made by Winging It from Boeing's current data reports.

A gross number is a bell weather number suggesting the activity within the order book. A high gross number ratio to its net number indicates how robust the order book has become. The booking of 421 gross orders to 381 net orders can be interpreted several ways. Boeing's net-to-gross ratio is .90 where it indicates a high order book efficiency at this time.

The Airbus net to gross efficiency is .82 applied the gross count of 248 thus netting its 203 orders. The second observation is the total orders made during 2017, ignoring the cancellations or conversions to another model. The post Paris Airshow count is a telling story. It is well known Boeing had many conversions from the Max 8 over to the Max 10. Boeing received orders-commitments for 361 Max 10's. In that number were a great portion of conversions from other Max models going to the Max 10. Boeing, though lists its order book according to actual firm transactions so its netting effect of .90 is indeed a remarkably high ratio considering all of the Max 10 conversion transactions. Below is the YTD Gross Orders in figure 1.

Boeing has booked 421 orders so far this year. There are more opportunities remaining during the year and a net 600+ order year is within Boeing's reach. Airbus needs 400 more orders in the remaining six months to keep pace with Boeing's opportunities.

Below is the Boeing Order-Paris effect during the month of June:

Figure 2.

The 184 units were placed as orders and does not indicate net orders. If using the .87 ratio number, an expectation net number could be 161 units (when multiplying .87 times 184). The Paris Airshow results will take the remainder of the year or longer settling up all LOI, MOU and commitments adjusting the order book. The efficiency rate of .87 is just a number based on current order book performance. As an example the Max 10 had 361 total transactions in various stages. Not all will become firm orders, some already are finalized. However, using the theoretical .87 ratio number the 361 Air Show total could turn into 314 firm 737 Max 10's orders. So much can happen during any campaign. The success of any sales transaction is subject to customers financial condition or market changes, indicating anything could happen with changing the outcome. 

Below is the June order count by type:

• 737-Max 104 units
• 777-300ER 4 units
• 777X   20 units
• 787-Dreamliner 56 units

In total 184 units from the show sales were made concurrently with sales outside the show during the month of June, 2017. 

Approximate Backlog Boeing and Airbus

Airplane Wars in the backlog trenches awaits Boeing's paper airplanes from Paris converted from MOU, LOI, options. The Boeing file on paper grows. However it is maintaining its margin from the Airbus book at 1 trillion Airbus to 898 billion for Boeing.