If 0 were the center of the universe, then any number is a deviation
from that center. True or not the definition of smoothing with statistics or
recognizing a seasonal value against a straight line, results with a big math
understanding for which all people who aspire to become decision-makers must
come to know during their own educational portion of life. Without a written mechanism
such as math there would be no understanding of an event occurring and why it
occurs.

To further illustrate this convoluted idea, any action or
reaction in nature can be measured with mathematical calculations. A rose grows
6” tall another 24” inches tall from the same plant. What will the third rose grow
next to the first two? Math should tell that outcome. One person may take (24-6)/2
and then come up with a 9” Rose for the third growth. A second mathematician
goes old school and uses a basic average (24+6)/2= 15”. A third mathematician
from college uses seasonality and trending functions applied to the first
formula, for a power point show in the Paris Airshow.

The question before the industry is, “What potential does
the airline industry have for selling airplanes for the next 10 or 20 years”?

What demand numbers for each class of airplane exist going
forward?

Fortunate for eggheads there are computers which can store
dates, data and complex math formulas for those answers. Enter in current date
and then a future date to the single aisle aircraft division and the computer
heats up a little producing a neatly generated report in both paper and
electronic power point manner.

Boeing has just done that with the Jumbo sized aircraft. The
world only has only a possible few more orders for giant passenger Jets during
the next twenty years. The 747-8i has been pronounced dead on arrival.

After reading through the Boeing.com website for its 20 year
2017 airplane outlook, the numbers change in steps from the 2016 outlook it
provided. Instead of 39,000 aircraft looking forward it goes forward with about
41,000 in 2017. Slight adjustments to the whole forecast as expected from YOY accounts.

What changes in the calculation are the data streams which affect things like trend lines and seasonality? The current trend direct is driven by fuel prices at this time, and it has flattened the demand for wide body orders. The seasonality issue is a factor from refined statistical analysis which is affected by world conditions where people are willing to fly or not and documenting expansions of travel routes during financial cyclic periods or driven by other factors.

Imputing data and formula bundles in the computer is a continuous
process, where every day a change occurs in the market place or industry and a
math adjustment follows those changes. The outcome is a snapshot in time where
next month after the show those forecast numbers have become old and stale but
at a small rate of change. Any change is then added to the forecast formulas
thus updating what has been presented.

The conclusion to all of this mumbo-jumbo, is Boeing can
chose its own data complimentary to its own goals and skew outcomes towards slighting
its competition and likewise from the competitor for doing the same thing to
Boeing.

A further conclusion is the 747-8i has faded and the A-380 is rapidly following
the 747 into oblivion. The rising stars are small to medium wide body and the
Jumbo replacements such as the 777X family of Aircraft. Airbus has thrown down
on the A-350-1000 but it will not match the Boeing 777X, however it has its own
niche above the 787-9 and just below the 777-8X capacity. The 787-10 is another
specialty airplane using its regional range while not having an unused long range
capability like the A-350-1000 has in its own separate market zone. The 787-10
is an intercontinental people mover and the A-350 -1000 is built for World -wide
travel competing for the few 777X in that market segment.