Without really understanding the
CFRP financial model it is plain to every observer, at some time it is
necessary to turn over a product into the heap bin. This is necessary for
customers to buy more of its kind. This is an important profit engine measuring
product turn-over as a quotient. Boeing was instrumental in introducing a mass
production model for super-huge plastic products called the 787, 737, and then
the 777X family of aircraft. Over half of the 787 is CFRP and the
"others" in Boeing's production plan call for CFRP X wings and some
Max things. In fact all its Boeing commercial aviation product line will have a
certain degree of CFRP in its constructs.
What is in Boeing's plan for turn-over of said products? An
aluminum can of soda even goes to the recycle bin. The average land fill
garbage dump avoids burying its plastics into the ground while recycling
has change the American culture by having two garbage can at the curb. One for
biodegradable and one for recycling. This brings to the attention of how long
will a plastic bodied airplane last before replacing it in the market place.
Hanging on to plastic airplanes longer also effects the financials of a
producer such as Boeing. It must replace world fleets in a timely manner in
order to make profits. The plastic production plan will reach saturation in the
next decade when customers can still flying the CFRP's without fatigued and a
need for replacement.
A turn-over quotient becomes an
important part of a manufacturer’s forecasting model and the CFRP aircraft has
thrown a wrench into the typical inventory modeling coming from the aluminum
aircraft. Typically a traditional aircraft will stay with a fleet of a top line
commercial carrier under twenty years before replacement. Models can be based
on this assumption when calculation ordering and profitability cycles. What if
an aircraft last longer like a 787, then what happens to all the modeling and a
saturation of commercial aviation buying market. In other words there may be a
period of time when buyers don’t need to buy an aircraft because its inventory
has a longer shelf-life with its 787’s fleet. "They" can just maintain it indefinitely.
Fortunately for Boeing, improvements, wear of other non-plastic
parts such as engines or avionics make it replaceable and outdated for more
efficient examples in the market place. No longer can a product depend on wear
and tear to retire its type for a new refreshed frame. It must depend on
advanced innovations for retiring any plastic airplane within a financial
cycle. Waiting for plastic to age is a long, long process. The old aluminum
bodied aircraft have a shelf-life and then it goes to South America or Africa
for its final gig.
However, a plastic aircraft will fly as long as parts are
maintained large and small. The metal components wear out and replacements are
required. Boeing will need innovative new wings, body, and systems before a 787
should be retired. The 787 could fly for fifty years before the next big thing
will replace it slowing the turn-over engine for Boeing at the factory level.
Hence, a new Boeing division is needed. Having a retrofit and recycling
division will be needed for plastic bodied aircraft. Installing new systems, engines
and innovations, while making an old 787 body sing is what it needs to do in a
factory setting.
A thirty year old 787 body enters the production floor where
dis-assemblers remove all pre 2020 systems and parts and replacing it with new
and enhanced performance parts and systems at a smaller cost than a new 787.
The innovation factor is bolted on the initial frame from the pre 2020 CFRP
period. Refitted aircraft will fly more efficiently than its former iteration
with all the latest features because the CFRP portion is still good for another
30 years of retrofitted service.
The turnover comes from innovations added values on new production
models. The retro fitted example is a continuation of its former self for less
money but a high return on the updated example. Long gone are the days of
moving an aluminum bodied aircraft to the desert for retirement after metal
fatigue takes its toll like an aircraft cancer. The CFRP model can be
resurrected. The most critical area is an aircraft's wing area and secondly the
air frame. The 777X will have an all plastic wing and its body is engineered
for the long haul making this aircraft a prime candidate for aviation's
refurbishment program.
The Max series was designed for turning-over, since its relative
lower cost of purchase allows the customer to trade-in for a newer model ever
dozen or so years as part of it operation's cost of doing business. The 300
million class of aircraft need to have the life span of the Empire State
Building such as the 777X family.
In conclusion, keep the plastic out of the dump and send it to the
recycle bin when making it a new 787.
