Reading the 757 Tween The Lines

Boeing has yet to announce a 757 replacement in 2016 as many has suggest will come. It remains a big question for which Boeing has indicated it has time to consider. Now it seems it will say something by years end. With that a meaning is derived from this hint. Boeing prefers to work out all details about a "Tweener" aircraft first rather than build it first and then modify it later. This becomes reading between Boeing's lines when it sounds plausible. In other words the Boeing corporation new attack formula on aviation's market is getting it right on paper first, and then acting second.

It has been over ten years since the original 757 ceased production and Boeing has had plenty of time and resource ciphering the proposal. The "things change" factor is the ghost which continues to chase new airplanes that is not unlike tagging a rainbow. The 787, A-321, and other types confuse the picture of what passengers and airlines want. Boeing could have built a Tweener five years ago but airplane wars was in the middle of a big battle with the 787 and A350. Then the 777X assault began having a topping of Max-bits to boot.

The 737-9 is an unmitigated market pause suggesting Boeing needs more than a A-321 rival, it needed fulfillment with a "game changing" expectation instead, as customers have begun to expect from Boeing everything Boeing is "Game Changing". Once again back to the 757 replacement.

Now comes a tid bit, at the end of 2016 when "Boeing will know what it will do with a new class of airplane". A "Make it" rather than "break it" mentality. It should announce something the competition can't do at this time or into the next ten years. Build something special and they will come. Boeing has the parts bin, technology and design mechanism to do this, but it doesn't have the capital or risk managed for such a venture. Data will address the winds of risk before it will proceed, since it has so much on the production and R&D table at this time. Boeing should provide an answer by stating a solution having a five year time line this December. 

LOT Is Planning A Lot of 787 Airplanes by 2020

LOT is an early 787 customer with a lot more 787 planned by 2020. Currently Lot has a Boeing score card of: All Things 787 Data

It shows Boeing has only to build two more 787-8's for a total of 8 787-8 in its eventual inventory.

However, below comes this little snippet forward from ATWonline:

"LOT Polish Airlines said it plans to more than double the number of passengers it carries annually from 4.3 million in 2015 to 10 million by 2020.

In a strategy paper, the carrier said the growth will be achieved via a combination of short-haul expansion in Central and Eastern Europe, long-haul expansion to the US and Asia, and a growing number of transfer passengers at its Warsaw hub. The plan includes growing its Boeing 787 fleet from six currently to 17 by 2020."

Clearly All Things 787 would show LOT is Boeing bound with more 787, as this above ATW quote has inferred. Seventeen, indicates nine more 787 will be affirmed soon as they can be slotted into 787 production positions perhaps an unrecorded commitment  coming from an earlier time period where it committed unannounced to 787-9's once money and flying occured.

Well, Lot is ready and by the sound of the above news flash! Lots of 787 will be added to its fleet as the article has indicated. "Winging It" will pencil in Nine 787-9's for a while and call it not a bad Boeing year at all until an eraser is needed.

LOT Polish Airlines

LOT

787-8

8

6

2

2

Total YTD Boeing Sales Including Farnborough MOU's

New additions include PIA eight 787 just signed on 9-5-2016

Boeing Month Ending August 2016 787 Program Numbers (updated)

The Month of August was subdued with a production/delivery output of only ten 787's delivered. However, September is front loaded with three or four 787's for the first week which normally is a dormant period of time during each month, as Boeing has exhausted its potential during the end of the prior month. Using the gauge of what’s delivered vs the year completed a simple forecast can be made.  66% of the year has passed with 92 total deliveries. Which is right on pace for achieving 138 Dreamliners delivered during 2016.

Fig. 1

The ninety day moving average goal of having delivered twelve a month has been reach with a  12.67 averaged each month. Even though August was a sub goal month the two prior months of fourteen 787 delivered exceeded Boeing guidance. September will make or exceed Boeing guidance of 12 a month.

Fig.2

Program strength is indicated in the below fig 3. The 455, 787, delivered over-all establishes wide Body dominance over its rival Airbus. The backlog of 718 provides Boeing with the opportunity for more sales as it out produces, and has more availability for production slots as Airbus sorts out its supply chain problems for its A350 Model. It will be another 3-5 years before Airbus matures its production to the level Boeing currently finds itself.

Fig.3

The by model spread is indicative of program strength as the 787-9 has overtaken the 787-8 by far during 2016. 

Fig.4

The below figure indicates Boeing has a leaner production model as only thirty-nine 787 are in process at one time. Prior to this Boeing has anywhere from 48-52 787 in the production mode at one time. The year 2016 is showing it has reduced the production process by about 10% body’s in-line at one time thus indicating a smoother and faster build flow.

Fig. 5

787 Orders are Fomenting in the Background

Qantas is going for forty-five more Dreamliners in 2017 or there about. China has indicated a lust for the Dreamliner, and a large order for 787-10's is hanging in the cusp from the Middle East. All this spells a 787 bounce after 2016 or during the remaining of 2016 order lull for this type.

Customers have suggested orders in the making for this, the 787. If all things are optimistically considered, Boeing could harvest 200+ more Dreamliners for its books by 2020, thus bringing its over-all total beyond 1300. It’s the magic number for Boeing for reaching a break-even over its own 28 Billion money pit.

In reality there will be some lost orders and some surprise orders yet to materialize, but the main thing Boeing has an active back stage changing its outlook. Qantas is looking for a per plane profit for its experimental operational fleet of eight yet to be delivered 787-9's, before it jumps into the order bin again for Boeing. Can Qantas make money with the 787-9 for its type of routes and customer base? 

It was noted they canceled the last of its ordered A-380 from a capital and passenger squeezing perspective from its financial planners. It is also noted the 787 makes money even with struggling operations such as Air India.

Qantas can't find routes filling-up the giant A-380 when holding Australians and others for vacation. However, they are more likely filling and flying the 787-9 while making a better profit per seat than its A-380. That is the business model, and yes the few 787-8's it now holds with subsidiary  Jetstar (11), makes Qantas a sizable profit from its 787 wide body segment it currently holds. Time is the play that must be acted out, and not by the Boeing 787-9 performance metric it needs. As it is some kind of excuse for not placing an order at this time. Qantas has nothing but time for leveraging an efficient and revamped operation from the former times of lost values. 

The 787-9 will of course seem luxuriant against the Jetstar's 787-8 fleet of eleven. Five years ago Qantas announced it would buy a boatload of 787-9's, such as about 35 of its type. Then it cancelled the lot during August of 2012. By 2015 it wanted a mulligan order delivering in 2017 with its 787-9's.

Australian 2015:

"Four of the fuel-efficient Boeing 787-9s will be delivered in the 2017-2018 financial year, with the next four from 2018-2019."

The order is for eight 787-9's, which are awaiting a Qantas review for the in-service metrics for 787-9 efficiency and what it contributes towards a positive financial bottom line. We all know the outcome of that profitable metric. Only Qantas fails to see what the outcome will be until it flies select routes while introducing this type into its fleet, and during its replacement with the venerable 747-400.

It’s a reasonable and appropriate business check, however there are already over 400 hundred 787 flying examples around the world answering the Qantas question. The 787, no matter the model type, makes money if you fill the aircraft. That is Qantas real question. Can they fill an airplane for long routes more than it will run the 787 efficiently? 

The nation’s airline must answer that question as Qantas reformulates its offering. The A-380 is at max usefulness for Qantas in Australia, as there are only so many Australian's who may potentially fly and an unlimited number of passengers from around the world wanting to travel to Australia where the A-380 can't land. 

The test must be made with flying customers no matter the aircraft manufacturer/type providing the aircraft. Australia and its visitors will grow in the Qantas bet. This is just one example of a Boeing customer who has a pending a sizable order.

The second big time operator in search of an aircraft is found in the common suitor for a big frame, Emirates. It is in search of a big aircraft when its main leader, Tim Clark reports:

"Clark says the performance offered by the new-generation widebody twinjets "gives whoever has them great potential". (a reference with a choice between the A-350 and 787-10) 

It’s between Boeing and Airbus of course and the mark is for up to 100 aircraft such as the Boeing 787-10.

Emirates is number crunching its way into nirvana with making its choice. It has already taken two years and no decision has been made. One can only conclude the decision has already been made and it awaits some timing to align with its order. 

A team of accountants know the answer already. In both the aforementioned cases the customer controls the clock. The only concern for Emirates is thrust with its heat and range for the aircraft. The A-350 has better range than the 787-10 but for how many people? The 787-10 has purported enough thrust for hot conditions. But is it limited by certain weight conditions restraining a certain passenger count? Boeing could give the 787-10 more seating space while reducing take-off weight, a common configuration for routes and conditions.

No one is saying. Emirates Tim Clark could be milking the clock for a best offer from either, when in fact he knows what he needs at this time, but he is holding his cards close to the vest. My own conclusion is concerning the backlog for either maker or when it can deliver. The race is in the 787-10 development and build spots and for either manufacturers programmed build line-up. 

Airbus has not solved its production line woes where Emirates would have already pounced into some build slots if it could. It’s waiting for either manufacturer to preposition itself for Emirates time table by completing air frame development (Boeing) or completing production efficiency (Airbus). The forth coming order expects a long range first delivery time by 2020, and beyond, and not necessarily in a continuous stream. 

It is also waiting for a manufacturer presentation of a year by year delivery schedule keeping pace with Emirates growth and replacement needs. Guessing is the best estimate for that answer. I can see Emirates wanting ten aircraft a year for ten years starting in 2020.

Who can even do that at this time after studying respective order books? It can be done only by the order book natural churning where other customers cancel or financial miss-fortunes of an airline delays a delivery order. Could an airline like Emirates fill in after it becomes a risky promise when a framer offers production room? 

Airbus would like to even make ten A-350’s in a half year at this time thus it has clouded up its order book. Advantage goes to Boeing as Emirates waits to see what can be done on the delivery table before it orders.

Boeing bullet points toward winning Bid for the 787-10;

·      Delivery slots

·      Development timing

·      Model fit

The A350 Is Becoming Late At The Gate

Airbus is seeking making fifty of A-350 during 2016. They have delivered only fifteen to date during 2016. The month of August is a French sacred cow for vacationers on the continent. Airbus is desperate to offer overtime and work to the vacationers at the plant to meet production goals.

Quoting the press, "“It would be a disaster for Airbus to miss its 50-aircraft target. The costs of the A350 programme aren’t coming down and delayed deliveries mean airlines seek compensation, so it’s a double whammy.” 

What's a company to do when escaping the inevitable of sub fifty production? Boeing is making fifty 787's every four months without the desperate call for immense overtime. In real time Airbus hopes to build four A-350's per month, but it even may fall short of that goal. Its customers who are anxious to get their hands on the A-350's, may in turn opt to say, "We ain't going unless its Boeing", and line up with the recent 787 production surge while tapping into the shrinking Boeing 787 backlog, which has shrunk under the stumbling Airbus A-350 backlog.

Overtime is the stated strategy, and then no vacations in the south of France the final penalty. Airbus has long said its supplier chain is the problem where they all of a sudden, can put the peddle to the metal and surge forward to fifty by year's end. The suppliers carefully worded its response to Airbus, "we are capable and ready for your production pace". 

Who’s correct in this problem? Is it a seasonal problem or a long standing production flaw in the Airbus scheme of things? Airbus said they could reach Boeing like production numbers from three years of first delivery back in 2014. Year end is rapidly closing with a paltry fifteen bodies in 2016 so far.

Customers can't plan anything with this Airbus response of so few A-350's and having a larger wide body backlog than Boeing is because Boeing it is making so many. Not only is the A-380 languishing in the market and production line, it appears customers have a way out of its A-350 dilemma from its slow delivery pace by penalizing Airbus. The answer comes back to overtime in the month of August and cancel your vacation plans French workforce. "C'est la gerre", Boeing has been ramping up with a very successful air frame and Airbus is stuck in the French mud and not going south of France just as yet.

Has The 787 Reached The Doldrums In 2016?

If considering all the 787 news in a composite picture the view would indeed make the 787 program seem like it has turned into a sedate like stupor from lack of August production and a lack of sales in a worldwide market place. Only nine 787's are expected from Boeing in August after a robust back to back production numbers of 14 in each of the months June and July.

Orders for the 787 seem to be stagnant and somewhat questionable going forward this fall, signaling a slow year for the 787 sales. Those hoping for a 787 demise such as Airbus may suffer a real disappointment in 2016, as both its production and sales for its A350 become a mere shadow of Boeing's ultimate number for 2016.

Boeing has booked a nominal "net" nineteen 787 for 2016 and incredibly this summer has been a hot summer while thrust reversing are questionable for its 787 engines. The summer continues on heating up while 787 sales languish.

Now the other side of the coin suggests a percolation of sales are about to bubble up and the new issues are just the culmination of a mature program, for which can never shake those types of questions going forward. The program's flight cycles and flying conditions will reveal any issues as time goes forward, while the Boeing data system documents the 787 and the operational end of the puzzle has a built in safety net where systems redundancy, preventive measures, and lessons learned mitigates any harm before a problematic outcome can ever be reached.

Hence the summer doldrums are reached while the 787-10 production footprint is established in Charleston, SC. Then the Everett,WA plant takes the brunt of Boeing's August wide body production capacity for the 787, resulting in the paltry nine 787's expected for delivery during the month.

There are rumors of sales announcements or pending customer approvals while those customers reaches its decisions. If all things are considered it will make the Boeing company the ultimate winner for the 2016 order book totals over its rival, Airbus.

Somebody is going to win an order for 100 wide bodies.  China is not done ordering yet in 2016. There are always the long term customer's who have historically ordered Boeing aircraft, but they have not positioned themselves for pulling the the order trigger. Counting all these suppositions, one could make the air framer a very good year and with only four more months in 2016 to go.

Forecaster look at long range averages and standard deviation factors assigned by seasonality indicators, and then coming up with how many aircraft are needed in a given year, without acknowledging this doldrum period currently in play. It only looks at the overarching data. By combining the rumors and projections together, Boeing has made it to a position of wide body domination and becoming the leading edge in the aviation world.  It may sell its production number in 2016 which is a truly achievable goal.  

Although Boeing has to reach the doldrums at this time in order to meet its goals for the 787-10 production, and then trim its back-log back while not pushing for sales announcements, therefore it allows for customer satisfaction while it places orders its new 787's during the fall of 2016.  

What's Up With 2016 787 Deliveries.

This report is a status concerning deliveries for Boeing's 787 during 2016. Boeing has delivered YTD Eighty -Seven 787 to its customers. This represent about 12.4 787's average delivery a month over seven months. Using the "All Things 787" data from the delivery column from August 1, 2016 through December 31, 2016 interpolates outward with a 140, 787 number. Boeing has scheduled for delivery, fifty-three more 787's for the remainder of this year. This may result in a 11.66 average per month for the year. Boeing may surprise and push additional 787 through during December as they have done in the past years.

A total of one hundred and forty 787's are derived from those scheduled in the queue to be delivered and the 87 already delivered eclipsing the one-hundred and Thirty-eight 787's predicted earlier.

Boeing should reach 140 aircraft of this type delivered, pending customer acceptance during 2016. If it does accomplishment this effort, then Boeing can count its cash potential for wide body transaction for the year as a fairly accurate value.

F-35 IOC What It Means

The F-35 is combat ready for certain applications but not all application found within the War Fighters capable constructs at this time.

Looking from the front line fighters at hill Airbase Utah, or representing this first wing in the nation as "War Capable", come with strings attached with current capability.

Capability Items:

·      Can it go to war and deliver? Yes.

·      It useful in any military operation? Yes.

·      Can it beat adversarial combatants in dog fights at this point in its development? Possibly and maybe?

·      Will it beat adversarial combatants without any conditional limits going forward? Yes It Will.

·      Does it do everything Lockheed originally promised during the construction process? NO!

·      Will it eventually achieve an Air Superiority profile during this concurrent period it has just entered? Yes it will gain the Air Superiority Profile against all adversaries currently in its respective works-in-process!

·      What phase is the F-35 IOC? Phase one, with a new phase added every 24 months with updates, armament and pilot learning curve, as each added capability is applied.

The complainers’ corner:

·      The ejection seat could cause death before this check list item was fixed since last year’s failure announcement!

·      Block 3i is not block 3F and that will come by 2020.

·      Wasn't there an engine fire?

·      The computers did shut down during flight.

·      The F-16 beats the F-35 version 2B whose systems were restricted during testing.

·      It doesn't dog fight as well as 4th generation fighters.

·      The F-35 was not built for dog fighting.

·      Are all weapons systems are not available for the F-35 at this Current time. Yes, complainers are correct.

Having presented a few notes found in the press reports, it is clear that the F-35 coming out of only a Phase I or called IOC, which is a sound foundation for adding all additional promised capabilities, as it will gradually become Superior once pilots figure out its matured capability, which happens to be phase II for the F-35. How can we use the superior sensors interlocking with flying groups combating both land, air, and missile defense systems unless Phase II is accomplished? 

The sum of all its flying parts is far superior to a fourth generation fighters capabilities. Those parts are just now being applied within the air frame where pilots must learn how to use the compliment of its systems available. Dog fighting is like the 10^th century jousting of knights with armor, after which the F-35 goes forward into the 21^st century with having the pleasure of shooting down that knight before it even knows the F-35 is even within a hundred miles distance. A new era has arrive where rules of engagement are being rewritten after each F-35 reaches an Airbase near your home. What has to be learned with the F-35 supersedes its current capability, and all outlooks from those flying them remain awesome within current aviators’ comments.

July Closes: Boeing with Dream Production Lines at 14 a Month Pace

July 2016 closes with a strong 787 production performance as the 787 has reach the eighty-second 787 delivered for 2016 by July's end. Boeing is exceeding guidance of Twelve 787 a month as announced earlier in the year for its benchmark during 2016. However, this footrace is leaving Airbus in the dust as it will take three more years before it can even approach the Boeing 787 production pace, at which time Boeing should have already announced a fourteen a month pace for 2017. 

This amounts to approximately 144 dream-liners a year pace (12/mo) for 2016 and another 168 dream-liners (14/mo) during the year in 2017. This does not account for months needed when producing a lower monthly number during a production ramp up. 

The year 2016 will come in under 144 units and is expected to deliver about 138 Dream-Liners this year because of the ramp-up period under produces stated goals of 12 a month. 

Eighty-two YTD Dreamliners is Key Number Below: The 1173 787's ordered is an unconfirmed number, but from press reports this is the number that should be the total orders when Boeing confirms all transactions.

The 787-8 has significantly lower numbers produced each month than the 787-9 during this last quarter. About 71% of the 787-8 ordered have already been delivered, where 23% of the 787-9 have been delivered against what has been ordered. The delivery number per month by percentage reverses in that about out of fourteen 787 delivered in a month totaling 70% are 787-9's and less than 30% total 787-8's delivered each period. 

In ninety days Boeing has delivered twelve 787-8's and thirty 787-9's with a ratio of 28% 787-8's, and 71% 787-9's while analyzing its ninety day total from forty-two 787 Dream Liners delivered. This pace alone if projected out to 12 months would equal an annual pace of 168 Dreamliners a year.