Wednesday, August 24, 2016

787 Orders are Fomenting in the Background

Qantas is going for forty-five more Dreamliners in 2017 or there about. China has indicated a lust for the Dreamliner, and a large order for 787-10's is hanging in the cusp from the Middle East. All this spells a 787 bounce after 2016 or during the remaining of 2016 order lull for this type.

Customers have suggested orders in the making for this, the 787. If all things are optimistically considered, Boeing could harvest 200+ more Dreamliners for its books by 2020, thus bringing its over-all total beyond 1300. It’s the magic number for Boeing for reaching a break-even over its own 28 Billion money pit.

In reality there will be some lost orders and some surprise orders yet to materialize, but the main thing Boeing has an active back stage changing its outlook. Qantas is looking for a per plane profit for its experimental operational fleet of eight yet to be delivered 787-9's, before it jumps into the order bin again for Boeing. Can Qantas make money with the 787-9 for its type of routes and customer base? 

It was noted they canceled the last of its ordered A-380 from a capital and passenger squeezing perspective from its financial planners. It is also noted the 787 makes money even with struggling operations such as Air India.

Qantas can't find routes filling-up the giant A-380 when holding Australians and others for vacation. However, they are more likely filling and flying the 787-9 while making a better profit per seat than its A-380. That is the business model, and yes the few 787-8's it now holds with subsidiary  Jetstar (11), makes Qantas a sizable profit from its 787 wide body segment it currently holds. Time is the play that must be acted out, and not by the Boeing 787-9 performance metric it needs. As it is some kind of excuse for not placing an order at this time. Qantas has nothing but time for leveraging an efficient and revamped operation from the former times of lost values. 

The 787-9 will of course seem luxuriant against the Jetstar's 787-8 fleet of eleven. Five years ago Qantas announced it would buy a boatload of 787-9's, such as about 35 of its type. Then it cancelled the lot during August of 2012. By 2015 it wanted a mulligan order delivering in 2017 with its 787-9's.

Australian 2015:
"Four of the fuel-efficient Boeing 787-9s will be delivered in the 2017-2018 financial year, with the next four from 2018-2019."

The order is for eight 787-9's, which are awaiting a Qantas review for the in-service metrics for 787-9 efficiency and what it contributes towards a positive financial bottom line. We all know the outcome of that profitable metric. Only Qantas fails to see what the outcome will be until it flies select routes while introducing this type into its fleet, and during its replacement with the venerable 747-400.

It’s a reasonable and appropriate business check, however there are already over 400 hundred 787 flying examples around the world answering the Qantas question. The 787, no matter the model type, makes money if you fill the aircraft. That is Qantas real question. Can they fill an airplane for long routes more than it will run the 787 efficiently? 

The nation’s airline must answer that question as Qantas reformulates its offering. The A-380 is at max usefulness for Qantas in Australia, as there are only so many Australian's who may potentially fly and an unlimited number of passengers from around the world wanting to travel to Australia where the A-380 can't land. 

The test must be made with flying customers no matter the aircraft manufacturer/type providing the aircraft. Australia and its visitors will grow in the Qantas bet. This is just one example of a Boeing customer who has a pending a sizable order.

The second big time operator in search of an aircraft is found in the common suitor for a big frame, Emirates. It is in search of a big aircraft when its main leader, Tim Clark reports:

"Clark says the performance offered by the new-generation widebody twinjets "gives whoever has them great potential". (a reference with a choice between the A-350 and 787-10) 

It’s between Boeing and Airbus of course and the mark is for up to 100 aircraft such as the Boeing 787-10.

Emirates is number crunching its way into nirvana with making its choice. It has already taken two years and no decision has been made. One can only conclude the decision has already been made and it awaits some timing to align with its order. 

A team of accountants know the answer already. In both the aforementioned cases the customer controls the clock. The only concern for Emirates is thrust with its heat and range for the aircraft. The A-350 has better range than the 787-10 but for how many people? The 787-10 has purported enough thrust for hot conditions. But is it limited by certain weight conditions restraining a certain passenger count? Boeing could give the 787-10 more seating space while reducing take-off weight, a common configuration for routes and conditions.

No one is saying. Emirates Tim Clark could be milking the clock for a best offer from either, when in fact he knows what he needs at this time, but he is holding his cards close to the vest. My own conclusion is concerning the backlog for either maker or when it can deliver. The race is in the 787-10 development and build spots and for either manufacturers programmed build line-up. 

Airbus has not solved its production line woes where Emirates would have already pounced into some build slots if it could. It’s waiting for either manufacturer to preposition itself for Emirates time table by completing air frame development (Boeing) or completing production efficiency (Airbus). The forth coming order expects a long range first delivery time by 2020, and beyond, and not necessarily in a continuous stream. 

It is also waiting for a manufacturer presentation of a year by year delivery schedule keeping pace with Emirates growth and replacement needs. Guessing is the best estimate for that answer. I can see Emirates wanting ten aircraft a year for ten years starting in 2020.

Who can even do that at this time after studying respective order books? It can be done only by the order book natural churning where other customers cancel or financial miss-fortunes of an airline delays a delivery order. Could an airline like Emirates fill in after it becomes a risky promise when a framer offers production room? 

Airbus would like to even make ten A-350’s in a half year at this time thus it has clouded up its order book. Advantage goes to Boeing as Emirates waits to see what can be done on the delivery table before it orders.

Boeing bullet points toward winning Bid for the 787-10;

·      Delivery slots

·      Development timing

·      Model fit