Seat / Range: Measuring A Hidden Airline Capabililty

The Seat Range is a combination of many factors. Starting with the most influential affect, the airline payload weight. Most 777-300-ER's are constrained by how far it can travel, and how many people can it seat for that distance. The 777-300-ER is champion on that mater. Weight and distance are the underlying factors for finding the airline loads with maximum efficiency. Then comes the ticket price off that number of seats sold on a particular route. All routes are not equal on ticket prices. All passenger loads are not equal on routes.

The problems are enumerated by these simple factors:

·                Fuel Load

·                Passenger Load

·                Direction

·                Distance

Longer routes have an exponential growth of fuel loads. This insidious weight factor becomes exponential for every mile traveled. For every pound of fuel loaded, it needs more pounds of fuel to carry its own base fuel load as needed for the journey. The regression analysis is required within this formula as the weight diminishes for every mile traveled. The aircraft will need less fuel during the 2nd half of the journey, than it required during the first half or during its take-off. Fuel weight is burned off at a higher rate at the start. Call this formula #1. 

This is a function of diminishing weight variable. (d)

The passenger load is dead weight staying constant throughout the flight. It can be formulated for every pound of associated passenger weight (luggage, passenger, and airline services/supplies). This also determines how much fuel it will need loaded from the fuel required formulation, going on the stated route and distance? It is a simpler formula #2, for the math minded analyst. However, that constant dead weight is added into the exponential formula for its over-all fuel requirement using a regression based formulation. 

This is called a function of constant Weight (w).

The fuel line on a graph will have a downward swooping graphic from its start, demonstrating first fuel load weight burn-off during take-off, and then the fuel consumption curves gradually until it will flatten out on the graph slope before its landing, representing the fuel is expended during the trip at a diminishing rate conserving an  intact fuel reserve. An optimized fuel load represents pounds of fuel required for safely making the distance given all the factors.

Direction is important as trip East bound from Australia to the US burns a different amount of fuel than its return trip West Bound back to Australia from the US. The seat capacity for airplane types is mostly constant number for long thin routes. Seats are what an Airline controls in the variable formulation as what it would be choosing for its best choice of airplane manufacturer considering its own routes and seats. 

It’s all about wind drag at this point contained in formula #3. (h) coefficient for heading.  

Then it becomes the  Lift & drag coefficients applied considering resistance variables according to its speed requirement and FL,  when applying factors against its opposing forces (such as: wind direction and atmosphere density per ceiling FL). 

Finally, distance is the most import aspect of the airline strategy. Getting your paying customer to the location they want in high numbers for its Airline financial reward. First you need the aircraft capable of doing that for the smallest costs while giving customers the most competitive ticket price offered. Aircraft Weight and Heading, affects the distance traveled for the passengers, this requires a formula #4. 

Range is the variable (r) solution based on all other functions of (d) variable, (w) fixed, and (h) variable.

ANA fixed its 787-8 seat numbers with under 200 seats and eight across seating. It sells its 787-8 seats as the most comfortable airplane of its type. Good move ANA! When in fact it looked at its routes, direction, and fuel prices, during this time before conducting its Boeing discussions and ordering, it probably had not thought about its over-all passenger comfort first, since it needed to apply its long routes to the ANA travel model first, it then could propose how to configure its 787-8 with passengers. The seating step was an out growth of optimization with the 787-8 abilities in 2007. 

ANA crunched its numbers in a varying degrees of optimization. They were the first customer, and had no competition for the 787-8, and it was about to order. ANA provided no showmanship through placing 334 seats on the 787 -8, as Jet Star has done with its 787-8 order. They shot for the sweet spot of 186 seats on the 787-8, and then advertised how comfortable the 787-8 would be. Perhaps ANA may opt in the next round of 787 orders by going with a configuration of 330 seats on its next batch of 787's ordered. It would complete its first contemplation it had for the 787-300 of a regional people mover.

Now comes market maturity for the 787 family where some buyers of the 787-9 are going with 216 seats, BA is the customer example in mind, while other airlines are stuffing the 787, as if it were a passenger buffet in the Jet way.   

Boeing 777-300-ER in PA's Livery

Philippines Airlines (PA) is considering the 787 family or having the A-350 as its only WB child at this time. Yes, it has a step child called A-330 NEO (Range?) for offering on PA's regional routes. The big question is who will win the order, Boeing or Airbus? PA wants to replace its aging fleet of six A-340, as it would have a leg up over Boeing since it’s an Airbus replacement. However, PA also owns 6, 777 300-ER’s. Giving Boeing back a leg up over Airbus for that consideration. The A-350-1000 doesn't compete with the 777X. The 787-10 could easily fly PA's routes to North America, and may not need any additional seat number adjustments when configuring a Boeing product for the range proposed. Boeing is competing against the A-350-1000, as its expectation from any Airbus offer. This is truly a key decision, for best fit that an airline needs for the direction they want to head. And yeah, PA is looking for a giveaway price.

One rule of economics, is having a finite resource directs a price variability (supply) during demand periods. The fuel price is the critical variable going forward from having fuel as a finite amount, Even though the economic engines of the world are in a constant hunt for alternative fuels, oils and better technology. The end of cheap motive power for the airplane jet engine is in sight. However, a Boeing silver bullet has emerged from the "efficient" operative word. It's up to Boeing Marketing to make it more "effective" in the market place.

The PA dilemma is choosing what will be the most efficient for its own purpose of competing, and satisfying its customers. Boeing puts a premium on its techno efficiency, and Airbus covers its own short falls against Boeing, with a slant on size and opulence, as its only and main talking values. Manufacturer separation will occur when operational and fuel resources tighten. Boeing is positioned well for natural economic rule of supply and demand when fuel markets return to its former levels of expense. When would PA get its fleet renewal airplanes, is the important question, for which becomes a sensitive fuel price or operational expense confinement at that time?

Using the top four bullet points in PA's decision making process, they must consider the direction they want to go in first. The fuel burn points becomes a constant, while the direction the company needs to travel, becomes its primary decision point. The weight factor constantly drags the airplane down on the route chart. Does PA go with the ANA model or the Jet Star model? As always, its somewhere in between. I believe it will be the 787-10 for six ordered and the 777X model for six. 

The A-330-NEO doesn't have its distance chops when PA aspires towards more North American routes and its winds. Hang in there 787-8, PA is looking. 

---------------------------

Winging It needs to go on a tangent. Making sense out of useless factors.

Number of seats= n
Distance Traveled=nm or (k)
Fuel Required per seat (f)
Load Factor (.85)

Word problem: If airline X needs to go from Manilla to LA it will need 35,000 gallons to fly 280 (nth) passengers. What is the gallon to passenger relationship using these conditions.

It would take 125 gallons for each passenger to get to LA The fuel bill for each passenger is $3.19 US per gallon x's $125= $399 US. A direct fuel cost is represented in the airline ticket price. However, it gets complicated rapidly after that. 

If the load Factor (L) is @ .85 on a given day for passengers. (.85 X's 280P = 235(P)) passengers ticketed on average for its route. The load factor (w) is reduced as will the (d) fuel load will be reduced. But by how much? That is the manufacturer's talking point through its marketing teams presentations. The .85 passenger load factor is pretty much standard number for most airlines. If it goes below .79 then the airline starts to bleed profits out. 

The fuel load requirements become a direct calculation on a fixed passenger weight established with its modeling aspects from airline's own calculations. The computer optimizes fuel load and weights instantly as you stand in-line checking in for a ticket. What an airline wants to know before buying its new aircraft are the proposed model's metrics found within its own operational scenarios or with its current direct competitors or potential future competitors. If a competitor operates Airbus equipment, Boeing must demonstrate how a potential customer will come out using real data from actual operational data without disclosing the source. let the Games begin with PA.

Ryanair Is Beating Airbus The Old Fashioned Way

Its doing it with one 737 at a time in Europe. In a place, where often a plan does not come together. Airbus says its A320 NEO is better than, well just about anything Boeing has tried. Then here comes Ryanair on the A-320 heels throughout Europe.

WILL RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC (NASDAQ:RYAAY) SURPRISE THIS QUARTER?

Quote: Investor's News

"Most recently for the quarter ending on 2015-03-31, Ryanair Holdings plc (NASDAQ:RYAAY) posted a surprise factor of 140%. The company reported actual earnings of $0.12 which was $0.07 away from what analysts were projecting on a consensus basis.

“Ryanair Holdings plc (Ryanair Holdings), is a holding company for Ryanair Limited (Ryanair). Ryanair operates a low-cost, scheduled-passenger airline serving short-haul, point-to-point routes between Ireland, the United Kingdom, Continental Europe, and Morocco. As of June 30, 2012, the Company offered approximately over 1,500 scheduled short-haul flights per day serving approximately 160 airports largely throughout Europe with an operating fleet of 294 aircraft flying approximately 1,500 routes. Ryanair sells seats on a one-way basis. The Company also holds a 29.8% interest in Aer Lingus Group plc. As of June 30, 2012, Ryanair’s operating fleet was composed of 294 Boeing 737-800 aircraft, each having 189 seats. Ryanair’s fleet totaled 294 Boeing 737-800s at March 31, 2012. As of June 30, 2012, Ryanair owned and operated four Boeing 737-800 full flight simulators for pilot training.”

-----------------------------

No matter how much Airbus touts its aircraft the bottom line speaks louder. A 140% increase in financial performance is shared by the 737 performance. Ryanair has made inroads into the European market that Boeing itself has not made through its marketing. Ryanair is simply slamming the Region's market with the 737-8 NG. What's up next does not bode well for operator's of the A-320 NEO. Ryanair is coming to play with its huge 737 Max-200 order. You may say, "what's a Max 200"?

Here it is with its 197 seats

The Max 200 is the consummate people mover at 522 MPH. It will go three thousand miles from where you will be standing in the Jet Way. The "I want outa here", appeal at a discounted price, targeting the central demographic of the traveling public. 

Wiki Table

Part I: Boeing KC-46 Takes Write-off for stock holders, Fixes found during phase 1.

Boeing has taken a $536 Million after Tax write-off on the KC-46 project as it completes loose ends on the project. It will affect share prices for 77 cents per share on Boeing stocks this quarter. It also directly affects total earnings for the year. Boeing sees the tanker business as an $80 Billion business, and has expected some write- downs on this project from its corralled bidding parameters. The US Defense Department has a stop loss of 4.9 Billion capped on the project. Boeing must take up the slack for anything past the $4.9 Billion it spends. Hence, the $536 Million after Tax Boeing write-off.

Part II: Develop, Determine and Deliver The KC-46 Phase II

Part III: Key Aerial Refueling Capabilities Should Be Demonstrated Prior to the Production Decision

Either by Hose and Drogue or by Boom, KC-46 Scores Success.

Optimism for stock holders comes from the knowledge of project progression. It's approaching the 90% line of completion for all systems for the aircraft. The remaining 10% typically is the testing and successful installation of integrated systems. The important point here includes its main purpose of refueling management and it is nearing completion for a refueling tanker mission. The integration of its fueling system for multi type aircraft and its situational applications for all warfare environments. The 1.2 billion added charge-off is before the tax amount. It also represents a financial recognition of a phase completed, otherwise Boeing would have not written it off at this time.

The write -off is a turning point for the program, as the most complex part of the program is gaining readiness for real operational testing. This check list item is important to the program as it is the integral functionality of the aircraft's mission scope. I would not expect another write-off or additional cost of this stature in the future for the KC-46, unless the military makes an addendum RFP on the project, or Boeing encounters a program altering road block during the last test phases it is about to enter. To put it simply, the write-off represents Boeing as having its ducks in a row for the KC-46 project. Full flight tests is the final phase as its conclusive testing phase begins, using all its integrated systems flying and working while meeting those expectations established during the development's ground phase. 

Boeing Rendering

On time delivery for Boeing is important as it opens more opportunity with other customers, once it delivers the first batch of 18 KC-46 by August 2017.

Boeing Books 50 737 Unidentified

50 Unidentified 737 orders have been noted on the Boeing Book. I will take a stab at it, and call them China Eastern's Order, in hiding, which was announced by Winging It on July 9, 2015 call out.

Boeing Orders and Deliveries

"Adding the fifty to last year’s 80 single aisle also confirmed, it brings China Eastern's organization with 130 Boeing single aisle ordered in two years."

I will be excited if Boeing can announce another 50 767 freighters by Fedex before long. By years end, Boeing will have a decent order book comparable to Airbus in some cases and exceeding it on several class types which signal Boeing has come back, making a feisty competitor customers love to do business with. 

A 2014 "Winging It" Feature Explains The China Syndrome of Orders.

It’s all “unannounced enigma Customers” making up "The China Syndrome" of Single Aisle !!!

Ethiopian Airlines Capital Playing The Slots

That is to say the Wide Body production "slots". Ethiopian has demonstrated a key characteristic. It needs the best airplanes now, or whenever it really needs an airplane immediately other than now. 

 Air Travel Quotes:

"Tewolde GebreMariam, CEO of Ethiopian Airlines, said the company is in the process of evaluating Boeing 777-X, Airbus 350-1000 and Bombardier Q400 aircraft,"

My suspicions are price and production slots will determine the sale over what would be a better aircraft for any airline, having similar considerations. They are leveraging its capital position for reaching its 2025 goal.

"The airline is looking to increase its 2025 goal of $10 billion annual revenues with a rapid expansion of its routes." 

It recently tied up the 787 early builds that were sitting at the head of Boeing's stationary 787 line. It bought 6, 787-8's that were completed three years ago and were heavily discounted by Boeing in its fire sale. It was time for Ethiopian to buy and it was now, they got them!

"In June, Boeing announced that Ethiopian Airlines ordered six 787-8 Dreamliners at a cost of $1.3 billion in an effort to modernize and expand its fleet."

Ethiopian has identified what it needs and what it wants. Wide Bodies, sooner rather than later. It moved up its A-350-9 order by a year. 

“… and is also discussing the possibility of an earlier delivery from Airbus of 14 A350-900 aircraft in 2016-2017, previously scheduled for 2016-2018.” 

The only conclusion is Ethiopian has embarked on a Juggernaut’s journey for meeting its goals, and will not look back once it arrives as the dominant airline of its region. 

Winging It Center For 777X Wings

Eureka, The 777X is being built as stands. A complete composite making Wing Center in Everett emerges right before the camera. It's the first tangible evidence the 777X is under construction. The Winging It center will open in May 2016 per Randy's Blog. Proof of progress is the picture below:

Randy's Journal Boeing Photo

What this rapid build means is Boeing is firmly on the investment clock for its next greatest advancement of its aircraft product line. The 27 acre floor is a small horse ranch sized parcel. The bottom of the ceiling beams reach 65 feet high and the roof is 50 feet higher than the initial beam height. It would be the equivalent of twelve stories high as found in most buildings.

Boeing-Randy's Journal Photo

"Autoclave This" goes into the building; Note the 6' step ladder in lower right corner of photo.

It is an enjoyable journey watching the build process on Boeing's next accomplishment. Thank-you Randy for sharing the ride with all of its followers.  Randy's Journal Link

Conclusion: Dreamliner 787 Profitability Will Power Boeing In 2017

Much to do about the Dreamliner is very Shakespearean since 2005. The Dreamliner will fly faster higher and longer driving Boeing forward. All this is based on assumptions that litter the Boeing Journey until this accounting point from 2005 until 2017. Good news comes from further analysis, which has noted Boeing is about to burst the profit/loss bubble in the future during 2017. Not from the strengthening 787-8 output, but from its larger sibling coming online by...

The bigger they are the farther they drive profit?

"On Tuesday, JPMorgan Chase analyst Seth Seifman joined Boeing’s bullish boosters, saying the Dreamliner program likely will swing from a $2.5 billion loss this year to a $1.7 million profit in 2017. Seifman also cited the heavier mix of big Dreamliners in the backlog as a key reason for the shift."

By the end of this decade, Boeing could turn its current $20 million loss on every Dreamliner it sells into a profit of up to $56 million per plane, analyst Myles Walton wrote in a research paper for the bank’s investors.

It is further stated the 787-10 will make money starting in 2017 with the 787-10.

Walton estimates it currently costs $163 million to build one 787-9. By 2020, the production costs should decrease to $115 million per plane. With an estimated sale price of $156 million by 2020, the 787-9 should bring a profit of more than $40 million on every sale.

The 787-10’s performance should be even better — an estimated sales price of $180 million minus production costs of $124 million for a $56 million profit per aircraft.

This is the first report I have seen expressing when a solid profit will turn for the program as a whole. Considering it will have gone halfway through the current backlog by more than half with the bulk of the largest aircraft remaining to build with the highest profit potential. Boeing will have obtained the high ground in these ten years, since the first roll out of the 787-8 frame during July 7, 2007. But the immense profits will come from the 787-9 and 787-10 production types. It will have become a remarkable and true profit mechanism consistently churning cash and raising profits for Boeing going forward through 2020.

Winging It Quote: December 2012  

Amazing prediction by "Winging It" now that analyst agree with it.

"I said in a prior posting, that I believe Boeing will reach Break-even when 150 787-10's are sold or delivered.  I don't know when that will happen but, I believe this can be done well before 2021, but not by 2015. Boeing will have to exhaust a significant portion of its order backlog through deliveries by 2015 to meet that goal. However, by 2015 Boeing will have all risks retired, and certainty of "when it will exactly meet, the profitability barrier beyond 2015".  A 2015 forecast for the year 2017 from Boeing, is a better forecast than this years 2012 forecast for 2015. Two years from now a solid view to the future will excite the investor, and I believe Boeing will state it will make money by 2017, not 2021. A  financial cushion  of time would lean towards 2018. Boeing will make money on the 787 project as a whole surging past its break even point late 2017 or early 2018.

Note: More orders are coming and that will bode well for Boeing to think about a gap filler from single aisle to duo aisle replacing the 757 and slapping the A-321 NEO back a few orders in 2020. The 777X should be well into the mold by then and meeting new friends.

Flightglobal announces CDR for the 787-10

Critical Design Review (CDR) means Boeing is over 90% complete with its 787-10. It means Boeing design team will turn over the bulk of design requirement to the construction planners. They will coordinate 787-10 part making for the first tests aircraft. The activity validates a 2018 target Boeing has for the 787-10. Please read Fightglobal's report for the original source. 

What Boeing has learned from the 787-9 project will have its carry forward technology which will increase first build efficiency. The 787-9 added multiple new concepts to the 787-9 not found on the 787-8. However, those added value advancements will not have to go through vetting when its placed on the 787-10 frame for first time and then on other 787-10 test craft. The main feature added to the 787-10 is the additional 17 feet body segment adding length to the 787-10. Even though certain upgrades from the 787-9 project and additional discovered in-service 787-9 -changes, will become majority of most change items incorporated on the 787-10. Boeing smoothly transitioned from the 787-8 to the 787-9 without any noted mishaps in initial product testing.

The expectation continues to grow for the 787-10, as it looks forward to a very clean process within the experience it has gained throughout the 787 story. 

However, an aircraft ordering pause for the 787-10 has emerged during the last few years. It is not due to the concept, but is due the heavy wide body orders occurring before the initial 787-10 offering. 

Boeing marketing concludes that backlog reduction and new financial sourcing will invigorate the 787-10 family line as it will gain additional 787-10 orders once initial delivery starts. The customer has time for recovering from all the wide boy orders made during the last ten years. 

With 1,105-787 ordered and 781-A350 ordered, an expansion for all wide bodies orders are in a paused state until backlog is reduced  and financing becomes available. In fact 169 A-350-10 are on order, and it has not even begun its first build. The total booked 787/350 type WB's equals 1,886 currently booked.

The 787-10 can expect more orders (Eva Air is ordering 24 787-10 before end of year), as Boeing has currently reduced its backlog approximately down to around 812 787 units out of 1,105 it booked. A scramble for 787-10 order may come once the 787-10 starts flying. 

In three years or by 2018, Boeing would have delivered an additional 360 787's of its two types. The backlog will be at approximately 452 787's, when using today's Boeing's order book totals. It is conceivable Boeing will take on another 250 787 orders in the next three years for all types including the 787-10.

The three factors pausing the order book is:

• Backlog available slots
• Financing Availability
• Proof of Concept in testing, when the 787-10 exceeds current expectations

The 787-300 Lost But Not Forgotten

The 787-300 was lost in the file Cabinet back in 2010. It was proposed with a 3500 NM range. It could be the consummate High-Density inter-destination single-aisle masher. Boeing didn't want single-aisle encroachment on its lucrative 737 production and sales. It has just now rolled forward on the 737-9 Max. Boeing’s cry, “Keep that 787-300 in the box a little while longer!”

Depiction of a 787-300 Wikipedia Artist Impression

The 737-787 gap still exists as the 757 dies a very slow death. Even though Airbus came out with the A-321 NEO, that would be no match for a 787-300*. Let's look at the 787-300 promise before all that Boeing has accomplished with its 787-8.

*A 757 redesigned duo aisle replacement using lessons learned from the 787 program.

Winging It discussed it before during March 2015. However, more moss has grown since that brief mention on the 787-3. The 757 refuses to go away respectably since it is well loved by the owners flying the craft. Boeing could resurrect the 787-300 with all the lessons, advances and technology gained from doing the 8 through 10 series. 

In 2010 Boeing had a tremendous difficulty in making the 787-8 whole. It had supplier issues, including its "build" teething woes, and then the battery exploded. They were in no shape to do a follow-on 787-3 at that time when it hadn't even yet figured out how to do the 787-9 with a plausible degree of certainty. Boeing canceled the 787-3 project quickly until it could get its arms around the 787-8 for its initial delivery into the marketplace. Boeing chooses wisely to back off on the 787-3 concept until it finished its higher priority projects of completing the 787- corps of family progression.

Now has become the time for taking on its only 787 step-child, the 787-3 bridge model, while filling the retired 757 gap. I know the 757/787 remains on some CAD drawing boards. It is time to incorporate its stable supply chain, improved battery system, and all the refinements of success that it can be imbued towards a  787-3/757 type. A conceptualized 757 would be a low-risk venture rather than an extremely high-risk experiment Boeing had encountered and resulted in the 2010 announcement of program closure.  The do-over 787-3 isn't a moonshot as 787 has already successfully landed and has returned from the moon. It doesn't have to carry 330 passengers as Japan preferred. It can go further like a 757 does currently. It’s the ultimate bridge to Boeing's  "Dreams". Boeing has successfully constructed all the parts necessary for this aircraft, it didn't even deliver since 2010. 

All technical risks are retired since the 787-3 inception. It has become a matter of developmental execution. They can draw from sunk cost from developing both the 787-8 and 787-9 efforts. It won't have a huge sunk cost specific to the former 787-3, as it would have had if it proceeded in 2010. Since then, plant and facility have been constructed in Charleston, SC capable of opening up more production.

In fact, Boeing can now stand back and look at the market where it can custom fit the 787-3 into the 757 gap perfectly from all its market data. The 787-3 could be a 250 seat continental jumper. It could pair New York and Paris, or LA to New York without formulating severe weight constraints within its potential and basic load considerations. Boeing can add value to its already sunk costs in place from the original 787 program.

WIKIPEDIA SUMMARY information on the 787-3:

The 787-3 was targeted for high-density flights; it was designed as a 290-seat (two-class) short-range version with a fully loaded range of 2,500 to 3,050 nautical miles (4,650 to 5,650 km). Using the same basic fuselage as the 787-8, the wing was derived from the 787-8, with blended winglets replacing raked wingtips. The change decreased the wingspan by roughly 25 feet (7.6 m), allowing the -3 to fit more domestic gates, particularly in Japan. This model would have been limited in range by a reduced MTOW of 364,000 lb (165,000 kg).^{[248][note 1]}

The variant was designed to operate on Boeing 757-300/767-200-sized regional routes from airports with restricted gate spacing.^[249] Boeing projected the future of aviation as between very large, but close cities, of five million or more people; city populations may stabilize around the capacity level of the 787-3.^[250][251]

Two Japanese airlines ordered 45 Boeing 787-3s; however, production problems on the base 787-8 model led Boeing, in April 2008, to postpone the introduction of the -3 until after the 787-9's introduction, but without a firm delivery date.^[68] By January 2010, all 787-3 orders had been converted to the 787-8.^[252] The 787-3 experienced a lack of interest by potential customers because it was designed specifically for the Japanese market.^[253][254]Boeing canceled the 787-3 in December 2010 because it was no longer financially viable.^[25

Boeing should come back in true workman manner.

• Define the Market reality:
• Refine the Model concept for the fit
• Sign the initial customers
• Design the new version as "Fill the Gap and beyond model".

All these activities could be ongoing at this time. What Boeing has learned about the 787-8 and 787-9 will influence the 787-3 design. All the unknowns existing in 2010 are now retired as former risks. The 787-3 is no longer the moonshot sent from Japan as it once was. It has a broader footprint in appeal as customers are conflicted on purchasing the 737-9 versus the A-321. The 737-9 Max is a perfect single-aisle tweener on many routes but lacks the full chops for going transcontinental as the 787 could do. 

Boeing executives may come back thinking a 787-8 erosion would come from the 787-3 at one end and with the other end, the 787-9. It only has to look at a load continuity of airline importance. Some 787-8 only hold 186 passengers. Some hold 334 passengers. The 787-9 will hold a minimal 221 passengers for BA. Seat overlap is an airline preference for its business use. The real dynamic for the airline is found in its ultimate purposeful use. Not in its ability to exceed its nominal design. A true gap filler will not adhere to a Japan-only design constraint but will reconfigure its 787-3 in a statistical means for airports, passengers, and destinations, found within the current proverbial "Gap" in the world. 

Japan had its shot with its custom built 787-3, and the concept was not ready until after the 787-8 was validated.  The risk of implementing a 787-3 on an unproven concept was just too high in 2010. Spreading out Boeing’s resources on four 787 model programs at the time would have sunk Boeing’s resources. It would have delayed a critical 777X program it was considering in 2010. It would be a show slowing for the 787-9, pushing it towards 2020 if it had endeavored forward with the marginally ordered 787-3. It became a roadblock for Boeing’s future. As it now becomes an anchor holding back progress towards Boeing’s family of aircraft completeness.

Boeing needs to make a drastic change by configuring it with a middle of the pack width sized body between the 757 and the 787 size, with up to seven across seating, and ultimate seating configurations of around the 200-250 range.

A redesign would give the 787-3 more range miles than first offered. Also, could incorporate its recent less drag advances, and refine more its critical wing dimensions for the sake of existing airports gates as first intended when the 737-3 was first proposed. The 787-3 goes all-in to the 757 gap as a duo aisle. 

Boeing Feature Film Short

It is not talked about much in the news cycle. But it needs its own daily spot. The 737 Max project is behind closed doors and its hard to get a look. So Boeing. Com has provided pleasant movie clips of its airplanes and advances. In the middle of the entourage of its professional technology of self-commercials, one finds the lowly Max having its own slot. Below is the clip for your Monday Morning work stoppage with a cup of Seattle’s Best coffee.

Boeing.com Video

What inspires the blogger is the continuous improvement mode Boeing has embraced from the very beginning of the 737 program. It wasn't so long ago that I remember the 737 having some stability problems with its very first models. The years went by and here we are today thinking why is Boeing trying to make that same 737 concept better? The answer is easy to find it in the NG. That particular generation actually captured and replicated its original vision for single aisle aircraft. Boeing did not want to change success. It wanted to build on success. In the video it talks about the original winglet, giving 3-4% more efficiency to the 737. The advanced technology winglet builds on another 1.5% efficiency to the 737.

The new upgraded 68" engine, the CFM Leap 1-B performance benchmarks, where not much specified, until it is officially confirmed from the  new Leap 1-B engine tests. It won't be until its developmental testing on the GE 747 test bed is completed and validated. 

However, what is known while flying under wing, it has achieve its promised benchmark claimed at the outset of the programs announcement. Boeing stated objective was a 6% improvement over the NG engine configuration. The current status of the test engine performance put the Boeing original objective statement with a big "achieved" stamped on the paperwork. Now its time to really refine the details with advanced technology winglets, and other projected benchmarks, which contribute to the over-all 737 Max efficiency. 

Boeing has increased the number of passengers it can carry on routes, having expanded during airline recent travel growth. The 737-8 Max can carry 189 passengers. A very important number of seats available for most busy travel pairs. In fact Ryan Air has ordered a plethora of 737-200C (100), which will make high density travel availability with the single aisle routes, a true value for the passenger. 

When Boeing completes the Max it will have optimized the 737 program since its inception. Boeing will continue its progression in the single aisle type with the next "big single aisle moon shot". It will incorporate all lessons learned from the 787 and 777X programs. In the year 2030, Boeing will be ready to announce a fast track program ready for delivery by 2035 of an all new single aisle that will please everyone including the basketball team.

Referenced Article

Big savings? Turn to the Boeing 737 Max

"Southwest Airlines will get the first delivery of the 737 Max in 2017 while flydubai may be the second or third airline to take its first 737 Max 8 same year. Photo by Abdul Basit

The 737 Max will deliver the big savings in fuel that airlines require for the future according to top executives of Boeing Company.

The 737 Max promises to be 20 per cent more fuel-efficient than the current 737 and to have operating costs that are eight per cent lower than its nearest competitor Boeing says.

When compared to a fleet of 100 of today’s most fuel-efficient airplanes this new model will emit 305000 fewer metric tonnes of carbon dioxide and save more than 215 million pounds of fuel per year which translates into more than 112 million in cost savings. The 737 Max 8’s fuel use is expected to be eight per cent lower than the A320neo per seat.

US aeroplane makers have started building its first 737 Max single-aisle jetliner on schedule which is an important milestone for a new plane model that accounts for nearly half of the Boeing’s plane orders.

“The first 737 Max is scheduled to be completed by the end of this year and begin flights tests next year. Customers will begin receiving the aircraft in the third quarter of 2017” Marty Bentrott senior vice-president of sales for the Middle East Russia and Central Asia told Khaleej Times recently.

Dallas-based Southwest Airlines will get the first delivery of the 737 Max in the third quarter of 2017 according to Bentrott.

Flydubai will be probably the second or third airline to take the delivery of the 737 Max 8. The Dubai-based carrier will get five 737 Max in 2017.

The first wing spars large structural pieces that run perpendicular to the fuselage were loaded into drilling and riveting machines on May 29 beginning the building process according to Keith Leverkuhn vice-president and general manager of the 737 Max programme.

The US Company is adding more automated machines as it begins assembly of the Max and as it prepares to increase production to 52 of its 737s a month in 2018 from 42 a month now.

Some of the newest machines which began making wings for current generation 737s in March automate about 90 per cent of the wing assembly process up from 70 per cent on older legacy machines that Boeing has used for decades Boeing said.

Boeing’s newest family of single-aisle aeroplanes — 737 Max 7 737 Max 8 and 737 Max 9 — will build on the Next-Generation 737’s popularity and reliability while delivering customers unsurpassed fuel-efficiency in the single-aisle market.

Last year the programme launched the 737 Max 200 a new variant based on the 737 Max 8 that can accommodate up to 200 seats increasing revenue potential and providing customers up to 20 per cent better fuel efficiency per seat than today’s most efficient single-aisle airplanes.

Maximum efficiency"