Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Boeing 787 not profitable for another 9 years?

I said prior in a prior posting, that I believe Boeing will reach Break-even when 150 787-10's are sold or delivered.  I don't know when that will happen but, I believe this can be done well before 2021, but not by 2015. Boeing will have to exhaust a significant portion of its order backlog through deliveries by 2015 to meet that goal. However, by 2015 Boeing will have all risks retired, and certainty of "when it will exactly meet, the profitability barrier beyond 2015".  A 2015 forecast for the year 2017 from Boeing, is a better forecast than this year’s 2012 forecast for 2015. Two years from now a solid view to the future will excite the investor, and I believe Boeing will state it will make money by 2017, not 2021. A financial cushion of time would lean towards 2018. Boeing will make money on the 787 project as a whole surging past its breakeven point late 2017 or early 2018.

Why?  By then, Nines are long since airborne and are flying out the door. Eights are beyond halfway through the order Que, with refined models popping out the giant doors every three days without hesitation.  2015 is time to secure the market share, because they will know how well the A-350 will perform and also have a new 777-X in the offering.  It means that 2015 is not a 787's profitability year, but the year becomes a major change for the airline wars. It's easy to see Boeing mastering of plastics, to the extent that it will announce the building of a monumental plastic winged airplane by late 2015. A mini jumbo putting to bed the 747, and causing additional stress fractures on the psychic of the A380's design team.  A right sized mini jumbo would carry more towards the low end number of 400 or high end of 300 passengers, then fly 8,000 mile and fit in all metro airports with 9-10,000 feet of stopping and starting distances. Airport boards put your shovels away and bring out the water cannons when the 777-X mini jumbo comes to connect the world.

Logistics for building this type of model would be significantly different than found on the 787.  Large parts may go by ship from Japan in 10 days. Having a Boeing design, and spec built cargo ship enables landing cargo from Puget Sound and then rail parts a very short distance from the "Puget Drain" straight to Paine. Making the two miles from the north, wedge between the affluent and the foliage. Why ship just-in-time parts by air? Just to have those parts sit in in building 45-X or on a runway for six months, while mechanics and engineers argue about how to assemble and fly this beast. Parts by specially modified ships is better to shuttle in and out several deliveries a week.  This opens the door for fabrications to shop out of LA, Tokyo and San Diego.  Providing a safe transport of super large barrels, wings and things for an all plastic mini jumbo. I believe by delaying the 777-X announcement, a plan B is in the works. Boeing desires moving away from an all metal jumbo's and going for an all plastic mini jumbo. Boeing has collected enough data, suppliers and technologies to do this thing with style.  The 777 still has a remarkable shelf life, allowing time to get an plastic follow-on right, over the next few years, before a 2015 announcement for an all new 777X family of aircraft.

I like ships too!

This could be a Mini Jumbo Barrel, wing or other parts coming from a Boeing Boat landing near Mukilteo , WA.