Monday, May 22, 2017
Saturday, May 20, 2017
Tuesday, May 16, 2017
The dice are played alternating between the two players while risks are unknown and got-cha (Red) cards are drawn by the player when landing on a red card space or the opponent may lose a turn from the role of the dice (dice rolling= risks). Green cards are drawn when a piece lands on a green card place holder on the outer edge of the board. Rolling Snake eyes always loses a turn and allows the opponent a free green card draw which always advances the card drawing player and the player who rolled snake eyes (or a 1 and 1) then draws a red card. Rolling a pair (example 3 & a 3), including snake eyes results in another penalty roll which sends that piece backwards by its dice number.
It’s a game of survival. When one player circles the board 10 times and receives ten Red Herrings before the other, it wins. Or when a player roles snake eyes then rolls snakes eyes again when determining how far back they will go from the second roll the game then ends which claims a winner for the opponent.
The game will also end after a player draws the one and only “game over” red card. The "game over" red card is always the last Red Card played and is placed on the Bottom of the Red Card deck of Fifty cards. It takes consecutive snake eyes and or turning the one and only “Game over’ Red card to outright lose on game play from the dice or the Red Cards. The game also ends when a player becomes the winner through collecting 10 Red Herring pieces.
Fifty (50) Red Cards:
In the meantime it’s time to play on a board game before any decision is made and deceive the competition with Red Herrings and 10 of those will win the day.
After writing this exercise in gamesmanship, the only truth emerges from a roll of the dice or a flip of a customer allegiance, whether it is colored Red or Green. The rule is to have fun with Airplane Wars'- Red Herring which can be news announcements until the next airshow. The board game needs an airshow space announcing how many Red Herrings have been saved up for any airshow awarding a Red Herring Token. The Airshow place could allow for puffing ones own chest or placing a bet towards its ultimate outcome. Play on and watch those numbers before crossing the flight line.
Saturday, May 13, 2017
Leverage strengths into new products and services
Open new frontiers
MHI will get the nod if the Japan region goes for buying 500 of the 797, otherwise, it may only order 200 initially as Boeing goes elsewhere with a decision.
The Northwest is in the middle, having reputation, know how, and a proven track record. It would get the initial production nod where Boeing then would branch out once the program is set in a delivery stream. Japan will get a promise for production participation if it will wait five years allowing time to prove out this type as it would get the Asian market share for production.
Depending on sales quantity, Charleston could conceivably get a substantial production share depending on sales of all Boeing types during the next ten years forward. The sales would require a rising Max and 777X order book, then Charleston could take on about 20 797 a month pace where Boeing would have an equal portion for delivery. If sales are soft across the board then the Northwest R&D wins the horse race.
Monday, May 8, 2017
Boeing lost a bitter sales campaign to Airbus when it signed on for twenty-five A-350-900's several years back. It would love to have that loss back with another try. This is were a speculative sales offer would come into view. How could Boeing take advantage of Delta's changing management? It would depend on who comes into Delta and who retires. Boeing could not get a second chance at all but the recent discussion are centered on an A350 delivery delay for ten of its type.
One consideration by Delta would be pricing for new equipment with open delivery dates. That would satisfy a Delta goal of having a flexible fleet change when expansion and renewal dynamics are in play. It is possible the Delta/Airbus A350 contract is not flexible enough taking on its large of order during the next 10 years. A delivery pause would allow a counter from Boeing to offer just in time 787's leading-in with the 787-10 model.
The 787-10 doesn't fly as far as the A350-900. It may only need to go 6,000 miles in Delta's network. The A350-900 maybe an overcapacity type aircraft that can go 8,000 miles but having only those few routes for the distance capability available, Delta wouldn't fill-up 25 aircraft with paying passengers. If the A350-900 holds 325 passengers it would not fly 8,000 miles nor could Delta fill those seats up for its long thin route capability. Perhaps the 787-10 is more efficient than the A350-900 going just 6,000 miles where 90% of the market resides. A Boeing sales pitch suggest this point.
Delaying the A350-900 would signal a rethink of Delta's strategy and Boeing could re-pitch its 787-10 which wasn't complete at the time of the last go round. It was all about the 787-9 at that time and Airbus made its A350-900 more attractive where Delta finds itself working to find routes for long range heavy haulers. There is no A350-800 on the boards and its A350-1000 does not match Boeing's 777-9X capabilities. Delta knows this and it must find a home for its Airbus order. When the deal was struct back in November 2014 Delta just signed with Airbus. The 777X was a paper airplane and the 787-10 was just in a Boeing Dream mode. Now it flies every day in test mode.
Delta could opt for a Boeing deal four years out for delivery and fit Delta's plans better than taking on 25-A350's starting now and dropping the Airbus purchase for 25 A330's later. A Delta delay on the A-350 may suggest its Airbus purchase for another 25-A330's may be dropped. Boeing could offer 10 and 10 of its 787-10 and 7779X delivered during the year 2020 and beyond using a flexible delivery schedule at Delta's own need. Also the 787-8 or 787-9 may also be a better fit than the A-330 for its operations.
Either way, Boeing has a slim shot at making a deal with Delta as it considers buying either the NEO or Max single aisle. In that deal making process, Delta may experience a sea change for its planning of its fleet.
Saturday, May 6, 2017
Most observers believe Airbus will rebounds its slow start as many assembled frames are awaiting parts and provisions. However, a third of the year has transpired leaving a smaller window of time for catching up. Boeing has its boot on Airbus performance neck and it won't let up as it transitions from model generation to another. Going from NG to Max will be an exercise planned for with many of its risks already retired. Going forward with the 787-10 follows in the footsteps of the 787-9 development pathway. The real risk Boeing faces is forming the first set of 777X's for which the aviation world eagerly awaits.
The Airbus strong suit is its productivity and Boeing has a substantial lead over that important measure. It leads Airbus by 151 single aisle delivered to Airbus' 143 as shown in Figure 3 and 4.
Additionally, Boeing is padding its backlog with a robust first four months in a "down year with 169 net Single Aisle orders (Fig. 1). Airbus tallies 37 net orders in (Fig. 2). Air Shows and held back orders could even that score up but Boeing is on its way in a plus year over Airbus for the category.
The conclusion for April is Boeing is hard at work with both its orders and deliveries as it out paces Airbus with 202 orders to Airbus 29 net orders. Shown in figure 9. Boeing out produces Airbus by a score of 220 Boeing to 182 Airbus frames delivered. Airbus won't catch Boeing for the title of World's largest framer during 2017.
The remaining points are self contained in the below chart. If an error occurs pleas let me know as many spinning plates are in the air in fluid and dynamic aviation universe.
Advantage, F-35 since it became as visible as an F-15. Stealth aside this little nuance confuses what defenders need when the F-35 is coming in.
"The notched bumps, which are called , serve a purpose."
To confuse and obfuscate is the new weapon. The Navy version will not have this version. I would expect this to be a plug and play feature used in combat as conditions warrant its need since it exposes it as an object entering the battle space. Not all F-35 will have this capability as invisibility is also a needed advantage. More importantly, this signals a maturity of the F-35 program. The military has begun its ad hoc experimentation on how this frame can be modified for all combat condition. The plug and play phase of weaponizing under all conditions has begun. The period the F-35 has entered will continue throughout its life cycle going forward.
Friday, May 5, 2017
The Chinese COMAC, C919, has flown the coop on its first flight. The Seattle Times offers a quick overview of this accomplishment and what it does for the market. Dominic Gates writes with his assembly of observations in very clear picture.
"Yet Richard Aboulafia, industry analyst with the Teal Group, believes that the central planning element and lack of any competition in the Chinese aerospace manufacturing economy inevitably will doom the C919 to mediocrity and unprofitably."
This opinion comes from Winging It's, take it or leave it common sense. There are 3 parts mentioned in this this opinion.
- Can COMAC compete?
- Will the C919 change the current duopoly
- Are customers wanting the C919
The compete question is tied up will Chinese ability of constructing an aircraft of this stature meeting and exceeding Boeing's 100 years of learning, error, and success and Airbus 46 years with Billions of government Euros making it so. COMAC has "borrowed" on Boeing's and Airbus' experience but there is no replacement for ones own experience. Common sense says China has another twenty years before it will get significant notice on its aviation accomplishments.
"Yet Richard Aboulafia, industry analyst with the Teal Group, believes that the central planning element and lack of any competition in the Chinese aerospace manufacturing economy inevitably will doom the C919 to mediocrity and unprofitably.
Writing in his monthly newsletter last year, Aboulafia pointed out that:
“government-managed, funded, and supported jetliners, historically, are not stellar performers.”
“Every single civil aircraft produced by an authoritarian country (or by a socialist economic system) has been a miserable failure on the market,” he wrote.
Thursday, May 4, 2017
Winging It pretends to be the Farmers Almanac for Boeing aspirations. Using the ground hog as a tool is not an option, but guessing is more accurate method for coming to a positive conclusion about the 787 sales potential in 2017.
The score card to date includes 13 booked 787, 19 LOI's for 787-10 from Singapore and the recently announced 10 +10 787's from West Jet of Canada. The plus portion are options of course. The final tally comes to 42 of the 787's thus purchased during 2017 to date. Having completed four months of 2017 sales campaign bodes well for the Boeing wide body division when considering two big air shows are upcoming before the close of 2017. In June there is the Paris Airshow at Le Bourget airfield and then the November Dubai Air Show with several interesting potential purchases forming.
The first one that comes to mind is the Emirates Order hanging like a chad in a fall election cycle. It may not even happen until much later as the Wide Body market is "soft" in 2017. The primary reason from this prognostication of a potential Dubai no show for an Emirates order, is from low demand for wide body because of low fuel prices. Once people go to the fuel pump and buy a gallon of gas north of $3.50 a gallon there will be a wide body rush with Emirates leading all the airline suitors. A problem for Boeing is that Airbus is in play with Emirates and so far it is falling Boeing's way during the early part of 2017 and Emirates is using Airbus offer as leverage for making a Boeing order.
Singapore wants the 777X model to the tune of 20 units, which will/should be announced later this year. Now there are 62 wide body chips stacked so far with Boeing 2017 order book in a "Down Year". The upcoming 8 months should round Boeing out with over 100 wide bodies ordered by year's end.
The ground hog will go into hibernation before year's end and will not be used for any further aviation sales prognostications. However, much to Winging It's immense knowledge, it can better the ground hog, Farmers Almanac, and Boeing's close to the vest stance with a robust trend announcement. It will snow in December in Canada. Other than that Boeing already has a good year going for it when considering its a down year. Even if it picks up another "Baker's Dozen" 787 orders it will be considered a great year rather than just a good year.
Monday, May 1, 2017
In all,Boeing produced 52 of its aircraft for the customers during April, 2017 and has netted delivering 221 for all types YTD.
Wide body types produced during April 2017 stands at 14.
More Airbus to Boeing data will be provided as soon as Airbus updates its website. Boeing, both in sales and delivery were down over its prior months but will maintain a lead over Airbus for the "2017 World's Largest Airplane Maker" distinction.
In the meantime this is a Boeing snapshot of its deliveries for April.