Wednesday, August 31, 2016

Boeing Month Ending August 2016 787 Program Numbers (updated)

The Month of August was subdued with a production/delivery output of only ten 787's delivered. However, September is front loaded with three or four 787's for the first week which normally is a dormant period of time during each month, as Boeing has exhausted its potential during the end of the prior month. Using the gauge of what’s delivered vs the year completed a simple forecast can be made.  66% of the year has passed with 92 total deliveries. Which is right on pace for achieving 138 Dreamliners delivered during 2016.

Fig. 1



The ninety day moving average goal of having delivered twelve a month has been reach with a  12.67 averaged each month. Even though August was a sub goal month the two prior months of fourteen 787 delivered exceeded Boeing guidance. September will make or exceed Boeing guidance of 12 a month.

Fig.2




Program strength is indicated in the below fig 3. The 455, 787, delivered over-all establishes wide Body dominance over its rival Airbus. The backlog of 718 provides Boeing with the opportunity for more sales as it out produces, and has more availability for production slots as Airbus sorts out its supply chain problems for its A350 Model. It will be another 3-5 years before Airbus matures its production to the level Boeing currently finds itself.

Fig.3




The by model spread is indicative of program strength as the 787-9 has overtaken the 787-8 by far during 2016. 

Fig.4




The below figure indicates Boeing has a leaner production model as only thirty-nine 787 are in process at one time. Prior to this Boeing has anywhere from 48-52 787 in the production mode at one time. The year 2016 is showing it has reduced the production process by about 10% body’s in-line at one time thus indicating a smoother and faster build flow.

Fig. 5