Monday, August 31, 2015

Boeing 787 Numbers Dogs Competitors

It is time for the end of August 2015, numbers. Boeing has hit its stride on the 787 family of aircraft. It has four months remaining in 2015 to exceed 2014 production. So far the 90 delivered is only 24 units away from the 2014 benchmark of 114 787 delivered during 2014. Boeing will easily exceed that number by ten units with an expected total of 124, 787 delivered during 2015.

The 90 day moving average is a clean way at looking at productivity sustainability over the ebb and flow of production surging or stoppage. This view indicates a consistent measure for Boeing's guidance over each of its twelve monthly views framing 90 day averages. Did Boeing deliver 10 a month as expected? The short answer is yes. In fact Boeing delivered 14, 787 during August beating guidance by four while averaging 12 a month over 90 days. It beat its own guidance by 2 a month over this seasonal average during the summer.

The grand scheme of Boeing things are needed a quick view. Keeping an eye on the Boeing production Juggernaut is an important stock issue it will tell you the path to its dominance goes unabated.

Once again by years end it is most likely it will exceed the 2014 numbers set at 114, by going solidly north of 124 units delivered in 2015.

The by model pace has quicken for the 787-9 as they are rapidly becoming the feature 787 type for 2015 as they are half of the 787 delivered this year and should eclipse the 787-8 for the year during 2015 as "delivered type of the year".

The 787 egress flow is demonstrated by 48, 787 available from production, or are currently flowing through the floor. Ten units counted are "terrible teens" or production units awaiting its customers coming from a Change Incorporation and rework status. Thirty-eight units are in WIP status which should remain constant from month to month as units are loaded into production and others are delivered.

Sunday, August 30, 2015

The 787-9 has 344 Seats Whereof 35 In Premium And 309 In Economy

Norwegian Air becomes the Canary in the 787 Market Place. The above headline is the closing remark regarding Norwegian Airlines latest acquisition of the 787 family of aircraft, adding two more 787-9's to its portfolio. The airline is leasing from its holding company, Arctic Aviation Assets.

The Canary reference considers a thriving environment for the 787 growth. When there is a repeat sales opportunity taken by initial customers for this airline on the micro scale. It bodes well for the 787's future. Norwegian is that Canary in a vicious marketing environment.

“In order to make our long-haul operation even more competitive, we are dependent on more brand new cost-efficient aircraft. Our long-haul routes have been very popular and I´m very satisfied to have secured more Dreamliners. This will enable us to launch even more routes to exiting destinations all over the world. This is a fantastic airplane with high passenger comfort, long range and low fuel burn,” said Norwegian’s CEO Bjørn Kjos.

Knowing the limits of Norway's travel foot print, it becomes more critical for any region's airplane selection as the right decision. They pioneered with the 787-8 having 291 seats. Now they go long with fifty-three more seats within its business plans. A sure sign that a well measured decision was made at the onset of the original purchase for 787-8's. Norway is not a high density location in the market place, yet Norwegian Air has made a high density yield for its aircraft based on efficiency and pricing relative to its regional competitors. The experience will urge competitors like Ryan Air to deepen its WB plans on the same lines as Norwegian has taken.

Spain, England and Italy have the same markings for profit on them as does Norway. The model has been established and proven, the base country can pull in revenue to itself with the long legs of the Dreamliner. 

Norwegian Air took the lead with its initial fleet order and now will expand to 19 Dreamliners by 2019. Complementing its Dreamliner business model with future dash-9's. One example noted, Scoot, which is emulating Norwegian Air with its twenty ordered 787's. They went with ten 787-8's and ten 787-9's.

JetStar flushed its A-330 to parent company Qantas, while replacing its "Bus" for 14, 787-8, with 334 seats. Now Qantas has affirmed eight 787-9's out of its option basket. The trend is becoming clearer the 787 business model makes a winner out of the pack of also ran's, found common in the market place.

TUI jumped in early with its 787 fleet delivered, alarming competitors at the Jet way.  The 787 success model is consistent across the market place. Only one airline cannot seem to wrap its arms around the 787, Air India. It seems to have not been able to step up to the technology level encountering countless problems. Even with Boeing lending substantial resources to its operations, Air India wants to assign blame rather than resolve its issues.

The Dreamliner has proven its value for many airlines after four years of operation, and now the re-order cycle has begun through successful application of the base 787 business model using the frame as the means for future success. Watch the demonstration of Norwegian Air 787 fleet compete successfully turning the European region towards these 787 types.

Saturday, August 29, 2015

New Bomber Clean Sheet Not Related To KC-46 Problems

The Wall street Journal 24/7 suggest the Boeing company maybe putting itself at a disadvantage for obtaining an procurement award for the US Air Force's new bomber proposal. First any clean sheet offering cannot be tied to a fix cost project performance such as the KC-46 Pegasus tanker has gone through with Boeing. It would be foolish to think having the first time fixed cost project problems would naturally roll into a clean sheet approach, because of a company's performance from doing business within its first time attempt of using an existing commercial aircraft frame converted into a military application at a fixed cost.

Boeing should not be penalized on its first time attempt for its KC-46 tanker when considering a bomber bid. Procurement should not use it as an example what the military can expect from Boeing for its clean sheet designs. The military has not been especially kind to Boeing when it cancelled Boeing's offering, during the F-35 competition where the Military went with its current troubled model, which is just now reaching entry into military service from Lockheed. Not only has Boeing delivered 737 types for Navy AWACS missions without any controversy, it has made good with the KC-46 in getting it where it is today, while spending its own coin.
WS 24/7:

"And while this is all going on, the Pentagon is expected to decide, perhaps as soon as next month, on the winner of a contract to build the Long Range Strike Bomber (LRS-B), often called the B-3. Boeing and partner Lockheed Martin Corp. (NYSE: LMT) are teamed against a competing bid from Northrop Grumman Corp. (NYSE: NOC).

The B-3 procurement is expected to fall in a range of 80 to 100 planes at about $500 million per plane, and the contract is the last of three new airplane deals the Pentagon has included in its budget plans. The Joint Strike Fighter, or F-35, was awarded to Lockheed in 2001, and planes are being delivered in small quantities for testing and evaluation now. The KC-46A contract is valued at around $50 billion for 179 planes, not including long-term maintenance and parts deals."

Boeing Photo For B-3  21 Bid Via WS 24/7

The error pentagon thinkers made on the F-35 project is making an aircraft compliant for all three aviation services.  The F-35 should have been a fighter for both the Navy and Air Force and not a jump jet for the Marines. The bid should have been divided in a modified approach. The deck aircraft and land based fighter could have been designed without sacrificing advances for dog fighting, range and speed. The Marine copy should have been awarded to Boeing as a stand-alone as an advanced Marine VTOL fighter. Both would have been long deployed and have its optimizations going beyond any adversaries currently flying in the air. However, the all for one and one for all approach reached a common denominator of reduced speed and aerial abilities. The F-16 has shown its chops against the F-35 as having an edge under several conditions. Not an acceptable outcome.

NOC LRS-B concept

Northrup Photo For B-3 21 Bid Via WS 24/7

The Boeing Marine F-32 would have been brilliant aircraft with top speeds of up to 1,200 nm/hr. The same speed all three types now must live with in the one-for-all concept. The Navy and Air Force now must match against other aircraft through superior dynamics by using its advanced systems and stealth. However, at some point those advantages will become overcome by adversarial developments.

The military achieved a "War Fighter Nullification" when reaching a common denominator consistent to each of its A-B-C mission scopes for its fifth generation War Fighter types. Short stubby wings, a heavy enough frame for carrier reinforced carrier landings, and a size enhancing body for receiving VTOL applications, has taken the F-35 for having a smaller edge over other fourth Gen fighters.

This brings us to the KC-46 project where the Air Force short cuts the concept using the 767 frame, and then Boeing made mistakes in configuring systems within the frame for tanker duty. Those mistakes have been solved, and does not reflect on Boeing's ability to complete the task. My own belief is the military will award the next bomber to Northrup, as it has kept both Lockheed and Boeing going with prior awards, and it does not want to loose an industrial complex due to  starving it from winning procurement awards.

That consideration does not always bring the military the best concept forward. However they encourage the winner to enlist "others" as subcontractors for the project once the award is made. I have no idea what the big three have for proposals for this military bomber, called the B-3 21. 

What interest me is Boeing's capability for plastic wings and body. The stealth factor is crucial, if considering a 500 million dollar, it becomes a war time target for any adversary. 

The bomber must be safe, so it never will crash while under operation of its crew. It must not be lost on a mission. Its a capital aircraft worth its weight in Gold.

Therefore, this bid award is one of the most careful considerations of this century. The military Industrial Complex cannot let this nation down on delivering this purchase. There are no financial do-overs for the project, and it must work according to its proposed procurement promise. I am confident no matter who gets the award, this bomber will be made to protect this nation without any significant problems.

Thursday, August 27, 2015

The Next Big Boeing Thing

The Wing, on the 777X opens up a whole new Boeing chapter. The 777X-9 will supplant all the older 747-400's in a sweep of its wing. The A-380 tongue depressor wings will just have to learn how to flap its flaps in salute of the mighty 108' span from the 777X center body. A video is provided below for those on a movie break from work.

120 foot autoclave for a 108 foot Wing

Popular Mechanics and Boeing Photos/Video

The 787 Couldn't Wait For This Battery

The battery gauntlet was thrown down by both Tesla and Boeing products. The explosion and fire exposed the battery technology in its Li infancy. Japan has pondered about a new battery invention and said the Li could be done better. MIT has weighed in with Samsung where a hypothesis of a solid state battery for its ultimate battery answer. It is a virtual forever battery. Another group in the Carolina's have devised  a concept in the lab. Many more scientist are in search of the "Fountain of Battery Youth".

The latest statement comes from MIT, "MIT and Samsung scientists claim that using solid-state batteries will be much safer, as well as more effective, holding 20 to 30% more charge, rather than the existing liquid electrolyte. "  

Thanks to Boeing, its battery fires, and explosion; a whole new battery pursuit was spawned because of those problems. To the winner comes the patents and fortune for all of industry. The scientist see the possibility, and when they see it they can't stop obsessing on it.  The DNA found in explorers does not stop at failure nor do road blocks detour the straight line results within an explorer's findings.

The Boeing Battery Solution it needs is coming in the next decade with the appropriate cashier check amount in hand.

Wednesday, August 26, 2015

China/Asian Market 6,339 Airplanes By 2034

So Boeing says from its computer modeling programs. The next few question starts a twenty year long series of questions, only revealed with a month to month progression until 2034. Therefore, Winging It, proposes more questions, and a series of educated guesses for answers that may or may not happen, but will enlighten contemplation on the matter for the next 20 years. Five Questions and five long answers is the exercise.

1. Is 6,330 a realistic Boeing number?

Yes and no: However, Boeing had to seek a number dead center for its highest probability of outcome when contemplating twenty years of demand during a projection. It would be safe to assume natural global growth and demand will push the world's largest population base into needing air transportation in all forms. Boeing took into account market growth, fleet renewal requirements, and an over-all smoothing of economic conditions for its acquisition of multi-billion dollar fleets. The over-all demand for all its Boeing types happens to be a safe planning number and market constraint that the Boeing sales team will go after in the form of setting a goal of greater than 50% share of the market. Over-all it would like sales projecting 3,500 to 4,000 of its total number of 6,330 or about 55%-60% market share as a realistic goal during the next twenty years. The "no" answer to the above question is stemmed on fuel prices, economic conditions of world and regional economy with the absence of war.

2. What other influences are applied to the Boeing Asia Number?

Strangely enough all regions in the world are affected by airline competition and Boeing had to take into consideration those external factors in its Asian model. Note that the Middle East and China itself has made inroads into Australia affecting the Australian growth model. The appearance of the the 787, and now the A-350 change the dynamics of any region. BA recently announced a London to San Jose route invading American transcontinental, and then Atlantic ocean hooping routes. The two edge sward (You come here and I go back you) of region of hooping jets should be factored in with any region. 

A second factor is not singled out for Asia's aircraft demand for new aircraft. The used market is a fungible and flowing condition. China will need an instant infusion of used single aisle aircraft at times. The used market can supply the single aisle as the Max and NEO are delivered world wide, thus releasing used stock for use within the Asia region until it can place orders and receive new single aisle aircraft. Boeing has predicted 4,630 single aisle aircraft during the next twenty years. Many will be used purchases as immediate growth is realized and some will be new purchases. Asia region will trigger a robust used NG repurchasing flow within that 4,630 projection for single aisle aircraft. All things considered, 4 630 single aisle should rise in number as the 20 year mark approaches in real time. The MAX  NEO choice will be settled by the 3,000th purchase for the region.  

3. What new aircraft could influence the Boeing 20 year projection?

Engine technology, new materials, and innovation may alter the projection forward. If airplane makers master the materials used in single aisle aircraft, then that becomes the game changer. Boeing has studied the effects of going to a single aisle plastic body aircraft. It is not cost effective for the gains made on over-all single aisle aircraft performance. Boeing is looking towards an ultimate range of 5,000 miles for single aisle aircraft for replacing a 757 concept. However engine technology has not caught up with that bench mark nor has the cost of applying plastic body to a single aisle makes sense for what it would cost an airline customer when buying its aircraft seating under two hundred passengers.  

The combining of refinement of composite applications and engine performance will take the single aisle forward with its next leap. By midterm in 2025 these issues may has resolved, while projecting the single aisle forward, as the next game changer. By 2030 the single aisle will take on a load of orders matching global growth with inconceivable numbers and enjoying new iteration of single aisle types.

4. Could the Boeing Twenty Year Projection Have missed Something It Now Knows?

The answer succinctly is, YES! Boeing did not disclose its own plans within the projected number. Hinted at in question 3, Boeing is continuously and judiciously moving forward in a constant state. There is no reason, Boeing can stop from out gaining the competition on the development floor. There is also no reason Airbus will stop either. However, Boeing cannot project ideas and the affect of those ideas into its model. Improvement and innovation will skew the 20 year market, as it is currently missing from the model, and cannot be safely measured as a factor for its projections. Winging It will only assume the innovation in the next twenty years will have a measurable impact on the Asian market. Comac and Airbus cannot keep up with the vast Boeing engineering conglomerate at this time. It can only react as it has done in the last ten years. The A-350 was a Boeing 787 reaction which fell short of the Boeing "Moon Shot" concerning the 787 family.

5. What will Boeing's market share in Asia look like in 2034? 

A difficult answer as so many things are evolving during this period in aviation's history. However, an attempt at this answer would suggest Boeing made a strategic pivot in its goals centered on two key areas. One is the production floor. Two is the 787 implementation. Productivity had to at least match, but must eventually exceed its competitors. The why in all this is about the customer, and the cash flow for supporting the second part.

Customers much have a finite five year window for receiving aircraft into its fleets, according to the usual corporate planning window. When Boeing falls outside that delivery window, it is no longer in sync with its customers, and cannot not mount its most effective market campaigns. The customer has a need for competing with timely aircraft deliveries matching its own financial resources.

Boeing has a need for cash flows supporting its advances over its competitors from the delivery of aircraft. The 787 is funded by timely delivery, which has opened more opportunity for its own aircraft development from cash flows. Production is the key to maintaining its lead over competitors while supplying customers with aircraft quickly so they may sustain a lead over its own competitors.

Production flow is key to most everything happening on the market front. The 787 is part two of the vision for implementation of a "Moon Shot". Airbus cannot overcome the shot with half measures as it has taken with its A-350. It will be fifty years before it can mount any real response to the 787 happening. It will have to exceed any Boeing attempt of new aircraft by a twofold margin over Boeing, in order to duplicate what Boeing did. Boeing made commonality its theme from its old standalone typing of aircraft from the 1990's. No longer are aircraft from Boeing individual. They all have similar attributes which makes maintenance, flying and operational features alike. Something Airbus did in the 1990's which Boeing missed, but has now caught up. 

The market share for Boeing in Asia is substantial, as it has positioned itself with many achievements on its own accord matching the Asian market emergence well. Airbus has a hodgepodge WB family of aircraft with an awkward membership in the A-350-900 and the yet to be Built A-350-1000, while the A-380 has started to languish on the order book. Boeing could conceivably achieve a 60% market share across the types by 2025 in the Asia Region.

Monday, August 24, 2015

A LAN Trip on the 787-9

The potential is realized on this trip from New York to Santiago. Airways magazine bring the picture to full view from one its writers who experienced the the ride on the 787-9.

Meeting New LAN Airlines’ 787-9 Dreamliner

  August 3, 2015

SQ_ - 3

In case an airline geek missed this little travel nuance, LAN is ready to roll with the 787-9. The link above provides a nice preview of that roll out for its first 787-9.  The keys that appealed to me were the 313 seats it offers. LAN intent is to fly from Santiago to Sydney with this model. Impressive segment. The current 787-8 requires an Auckland short fall before continuing . The 787-9 will flyover Auckland onto Sydney. The seat count doesn't change.

The nine's dynamics are incredible on what it will do for LAN, and how it will impact the regions at both ends. Its sisters airline TAM sit over the Andes and has ordered the A-350 for its fleet. It will be interesting in a dual how the makers compare with similar operations. That will become fodder for future discussions on product comparison. Until Airbus establishes itself as a constant in delivery for its aircraft the blog sphere will wait.

Enjoy today's reading assignment from Airways.

Sunday, August 23, 2015

The Culture Changes With Each Step Taken

Since 1876, where Alexander Graham Bell and his partner displayed the efficacy of the telephone for the world. The planet found that it could not function without absorbing its functionality. Life sped up to the speed of light waves or electricity through the phone. Computers quickly adhered to its wires and have quickly displaced Bells innovation going wireless. Our culture changed with this happen chance of invention for centuries to come. This was a human sea change for all cultures around the world. Not since this invention has there been many supper innovations that somehow made a pathway through without its having some direct or indirect affiliation with the concept of communicating through the transmissions of bytes, and audible sounds.  The world now depends on it for its existence.

Another change has happened in 2011, the first commercial delivery of the 787 to ANA and Japan Airlines. However, one would think airplanes have been around since the Wright Brothers and their peers flew. The Moon shot has not carried as many passengers or have gone as many millions of miles as the 787. What makes the 787 remarkable is that flight after about 100 years had not stepped through a threshold that the 787 achieved. Even with Jet engines invading the culture since world war II, it does not affect the culture more than the 787 will, when going forward. The moon shot taken by Boeing was not glorified nor was it idolized as this century's premier achievement. It still remains a significant change for the world's culture. Nigeria would like to enter the 21st century with the 787 family of aircraft as an example.

The cell phone is a cultural spin-off of the original Bell phone in concept of communicating. They are mini computers, phone, entertainment centers and so forth. They can read your power ball ticket through an app and tell you if you are a winner. The cultural shift keeps on chugging forward with the phone.

The 787 will also keep on chugging forward because its made of new material never before used to in the extent it has been added for commercial airlines. Its interface with Graham Bells invention is the majority  of the aircraft systems. Graham Bell started the revolution for every forth coming invention related to the interface of systems on the planet. The world system is the secret partner to innovation and refining what flies. All of Boeing's systems relate back to the first phone in 1876. The 787 is the next step which will change the culture for centuries to come. The Aircraft 100 years from now will blend the plastic constructs with metal interfaces for a higher performance. Perhaps fossil  fuel Jet engines will be replaced with plasma or electric power. But because of the 787 the step enables progresses in travel to continue. The culture is changing because of long legged routes and motive efficiency contained in the step, the 787 has achieved.

There are parts of the world that don't have cell phones, there also parts of the world the 787 doesn't reach. However, a smaller aircraft is now feasible that can go the distance to far reaches where cell phones don't exist and 787's don't land. The culture quickly catches up no matter an obstacle and changes.

Do you ever think if you could get more done in a day with a wall mounted pay phone on street corners? Do you ever go to the library to look up the news when its on your mobile device already? Finally, do you every dream about flying from Denver to the Orient when 15 years ago that wasn't likely?

Friday, August 21, 2015

The 737 Max Has A Potential Production Snag From GNK (Update)

The 737 Max problem bubbles up with positive news on any given day. However, this given day the Concern is over GNK's thrust reversers’ parts, which it hasn't yet solved. It was reported from Rueters that concern over the engine part maker has fallen behind with its anticipated pacing item for this critical element found on the 737 Max.
“Boeing on track to meet 737 MAX production targets – spokesman”

"On Thursday, the Wall Street Journal reported concern among industry executives that the process could be slowed because of problems at GKN producing the jetliner's engine thrust reverse mechanisms."

GKN Is Dropped as a Supplier Update November 2015

However, as always, reporting anything negative is better than reporting nothing at all. Somehow, I don't know how, but at the end of 2015, the 737 Max assembly will occur as the Max will fly on in early 2016, as expected with thrust reverse provided and implemented safely.


Thursday, August 20, 2015

The Qantas Pivot Begins

The airline industry is a difficult assumption made on future outcomes. It's difficult to see what will happen in the works ten years down the road. One thing is certain, Qantas has traveled the journey in a wide swinging effort with little to show for its effort. Back in the early day of the 787 program, Qantas was Boeing's bragging point when it ordered so many 787's with its duo fleet expansions and replacements. JetStar being its economy fleet and Qantas its premium fleet excited the Boeing community across the board. They ordered massively beyond its ability to induct new airplanes into its fleet. The great recession hit firmly into the core of Qantas plans during 2008. Qantas knew more than everybody else they were in trouble with its expansion plans using the 787.

What Happened via ATW:

"787-9. Courtesy, Boeing Citing lower international growth requirements in an “uncertain global context,” Qantas (QF) has canceled firm commitments for 35 Boeing 787-9s and posted its first full-year loss since 1995. QF will retain 50 787-9 options and purchase rights, available for delivery from 2016. The Australian carrier said there were no changes to its order for 15 787-8s, the first of which is scheduled for delivery in the second half of 2013. The 787-9 ..."

Stage one brought forward a downsize decision ordering  14 JetStar 787-8 greatly reducing its optimistic vision for a vast economy fleet of 787. They even inserted 334 seats on it's firmed up remaining -8's, it held on to as confirmed. Thirty five 787-9 gone from 2012 elimination and a book mark held for a future fifty.

Stage two required another phone call to Boeing from Qantas saying you know those 50 787-9 we confirmed at the outset, well Qantas now needs 20 of the fifty optioned and 30 more with ordering rights. Whatever that means. It asked for a reservation for thirty in the future with some price guarantees, but no production slot guarantee. Only the first 20 options will have production slot guarantees, only if they confirm orders in the option group by set dates.

Qantas had its work cut out for them by turning its airline processes into a profitable and efficient business. They needed to trim routes, and turn maintenance operations into an efficient arm of Qantas. Arrange for wages to align with the goal of becoming profitable through lower operational costs. Basically it was an "All hands on Deck" call out for its whole operation, because it was in trouble with its competition, and it was slowly losing regional market. The 787 a perceived savior for Qantas was then out of its financial reach for any hope of rescue. The airline had to turn itself around without the presences of the 787 doing the trick.

Qantas had one card up its sleeve, it was JetStar. They could buy 787's within its operational scope. They had A-330's which could move to Qantas as soon as the 787 would arrive. While Qantas was shaking up its operations towards profitability, JetStar had Qantas blind spot protected with an immediate fleet renewal plan and flexibility to insert 787-8's into its fleet. A profitable operation was awaiting execution of a plan.

The pivot comes when Alan Joyce reports the long endured plan had come together for Qantas. It was making a $Billion from efficiency changes in its organization. It was maximizing the service ages of its 747 fleet, where some would be ready for replacement starting in 2017. Alan Joyce knew he didn't need a commitment of 50 787-9 back in 2008, but with a new five year plan for Qantas it would need the 787-9 in staged groups. He had a staged group of twenty in the option bucket with production slots guaranteed for Qantas. The pivot came during the last financial reporting. Jetstar was stable with its 787-8 fleet at ten units. Qantas could steal three 787-8's of the four remaining undelivered from Jetstar's backlog. They did that little thing while calling up Boeing, and said,

"let's do a 787-9 deal using three 787-8 slots from Jetstar, and turning those old orders into new 787-9's for Qantas."

Boeing said politely "we are listening"!

Qantas said, "by the way you know those 20 we have on option? Qantas would like a commitment for five out of that pot including its respective production slots. In total we need 8 787-9's during 2017-2018 production season.

Qantas Pivot Demonstrated on chalk Board
Image result for Math scribbling on chalkboard

Qantas then goes deep with Boeing and suggest to them, you made us happy standing by our former bumbling, and we're going to say a lot of nice things about the 787-9 in our fleet. Furthermore, the eight we have just committed to through this phone call is more than an eight only order. By next year we will have a clear financial picture etched in Ayers Rock, and Qantas will clean up all its loose ends for the future. It is a hint, the remaining 15 787-9's that are in the options languishing will turn into confirmed orders, and the 30 on open reservation will fill some production slots assigned as soon they become actual intents or options. We may even restore the 35 787-9's we dropped in 2012. By now my math mind is troubled. Cogent thinking is lost and a formerly lucid Qantas hits low visibility. Good thing Boeing has a super computer to sort this out.

Boeing responds, "Okay".

Summary: Qantas "had" 35 confirmed and 50 in the optionish mode. My question to Alan Joyce of Qantas, "You had planned for about 85, 787-9's in the beginning, do you still see that number if Qantas has another year like 2015 during 2016?

So far Alan (Joyce) has not returned my phone calls, messages and texting. Who am I, chopped Liver? I've got no answer on that question either! Remember, I just may fly to Australia, keeping that in mind, considering my awesome leverage I have over the industry. 

Wednesday, August 19, 2015

Qantas Chisels Out 8 787-9's for 2017

Qantas Airlines who has 50 787-9's frozen in option mode, chisels out an order for eight 787-9's for replacement for its older 747-400's, starting in the 2017-2018 time frame. The signal here is a measured Qantas buy during the next 10 years. They will get its 50 787-9's eventually within corporate cash flows and financial opportunity when those functions arise. No longer is its enormous order book looking at a one time mega buy.

ASBT Quote:

"We looked at both types of aircraft, on what the relative positions of the A350 and Boeing 787 were" admitted Qantas CEO Alan Joyce at the recent CAPA 2015 Australia Pacific Aviation Summit in Sydney, "and we found on all accounts the 787-9 was the better aircraft for us, for the market that we're talking about and the network that we're talking about."

Qantas is off the buffet line and has gone to the hors d'oeuvres only line, picking up eight Boeing tidbits in succession. 

However, expect Qantas to get its remaining 45 at peak convergences of favorable financing, route expansion or fleet retirements. It may come sooner for the Boeing order book as efficiency functionality falls into place, but not during 2015. The Boeing book, now becomes dicey guess, if it will reach a net 100 787 ordered this year. Fifteen are Locked-in, but not loaded up. Thirty more are on the rainy day reservation list.

Australian Business Traveler Link:

London Heathrow 787 Fire Understood

How serious is everything on an airplane? Everything is serious when it flies. Often we settle into a seat with an impending flight, thinking about the future of a destination, without knowing a fear of missing a little electrical insulation or a battery instability could change the future forever. That is exactly what the inspectors on the Ethiopian Airlines crown fire have surmised with the Heathrow event. Bare wire wires were crossed while missing electrical insulation and the Li-ion battery caught fire. When the battery spent its energy from fire the combustion spread to the crown of the 787 itself. It would of have been very difficult to extinguished during flight or on the ground at the onset of heat detected.

Runaway locomotives are near impossible to stop. My life example of a runaway locomotive was in Montana when living near a high mountain pass. A train came to a stop at the crown of the pass while the crew adjusted the motive power for the descent into Helena, Montana. The train started to roll forward without the crew at the controls. It got away from them because during extreme cold conditions!

Photo Helena Independent Record
Image result for Montana Runaway Train 1989
Below is "The Story which should be read to your children"

"It was about 4:30 a.m. Feb. 2, 1989. The temperature had plummeted to minus 27 degrees Fahrenheit — with an estimated wind chill of minus 70.
A crash and two explosions ripped through the night, and the violent tremor shook people from their sleep.
The city went dark, except for a towering yellow flame shooting into the sky.
Some thought it was a nuclear bomb.
Others, an earthquake.
Many thought the extreme cold caused an electric substation to blow up.
Few thought runaway train.
It would go down as one of the worst disasters in Helena’s history and one of the worst train wrecks in Montana’s."
For Mike McNellis, it was the night he almost lost his life. He jumped out of the path of the 49-car runaway train as it charged down the tracks from Mullan Pass and piled into the helper train he’d been sitting in just moments before.
For the slumbering Carroll College students, it was likely the biggest wake-up call of their lives.
For the fire department, it was their biggest day in modern history.
Some 3,500 people were evacuated, the electricity and heat went out in much of the city, and more than $10 million in damages were reported.
Yet — people would marvel at how lucky they were that no one was killed or seriously injured.
Windows exploded across the Carroll College campus and throughout the downtown.
Hundreds or perhaps thousands of wickedly sharp shrapnel pieces shot across the campus, tearing through building roofs and windows and bombarding the Physical Education Building.
All the north windows in Guadalupe Hall shattered.
A train axel sailed over St. Charles Hall and tore through the roof of a house on what was then Ralph Street. It landed in the living room — just barely missing 79-year old Catherine DeBree, asleep in her bedroom.
Photos published in the Independent Record showed a campus that looked like a war zone.
“The wreck is something I’ll never forget,” said McNellis, who was a switchman at the time.
He and the engineer came on duty at 3:15 a.m. and were waiting in their helper train near Benton Avenue crossing to head up to Blossburg, but mechanical problems from the extreme cold delayed their departure.
McNellis had just left the train and was walking down the tracks to throw a switch by hand when he heard the boom of the runaway box cars crashing into the helper locomotives.
The locomotives buckled and “a locomotive shot toward me; I just jumped off the track … the handrail brushed my coveralls. I was running toward Batch Fields, and the cars are derailing behind me.
“The train was doing 35 to 45 miles per hour when it hit,” he said.
Fifteen cars derailed.
Suddenly, “it was pitch black,” McNellis said. “It was cold — it was 72 below with the wind chill.”
He and the engineer waited for a crew van from the railroad station to come pick them up. Just as it arrived, a tank car 200 feet away from him blew up, throwing him in the air.
“I landed in the middle of Benton Avenue,” he said. The second explosion, which he thinks was a nearby transformer station, blew him further, and he rolled into the Benton Avenue ditch.
“I could hear chunks of that tank car just going boom, boom,” as he hoped none of it would hit him, he said.
The first explosion mushroomed out blue and white and orange, he recalled. “My ears were ringing — I couldn’t hardly hear. I could smell a sulfuric acid type of smell. It smelled like rotten eggs.
“It’s like it happened last week,” he said of his brush with death. “It changed my life. It’s affected my hearing,” which was permanently damaged. He’s been told it will get worse as he gets older.
First responders
Roy Swanby, who is now a battalion chief with the Helena Fire Department, was rocked out of bed by the explosion, he said.
“I live down close to Custer Avenue on Villard, and it was enough to rock the house and wake me up.”
He struggled to get his car started and headed to the fire station: “The town was pitch black. There were no street lights, no traffic lights, no business lights. It was pretty ominous as I drove up… I could see fire … by that time, there were open flames.”
At the downtown fire station in the Civic Center, electricity and the back-up generator had been knocked out.
Firemen had to wrestle open the station door manually by pulling on a chain to raise it.
“The weird thing about the whole thing — the delay — it kept us from being at ground zero when it blew up,” he said. “Otherwise, we would have been at that crossing.”
At the scene, it was dark except for towering yellow flames leaping 20 to 30 feet in the air, he recalled.
They didn’t know what cargo was on the train — if it was toxic chemicals and if more explosions would follow.
“We weren’t truly trained up to the level we are today,” he said. They knew little about handling hazardous materials at the time. “There were a lot of odors we weren’t familiar with. We didn’t have a clue … for eight to 10 hours, of what exactly was on that train.
“We had a tank of pure hydrogen peroxide that ruptured. We were looking at it leaking onto the railroad,” forming a creek running down the tracks. As it touched the railroad ties, it ignited them.
“There was some really pungent alcohol smell,” he recalled.
The hazardous material proved to be three tank cars containing hydrogen peroxide, isopropyl alcohol and acetone.
The extreme cold proved a blessing.
“We had a big guardian angel watching over,” he said. “If the temperature had been above freezing, it would have been a much larger kaboom. The potential was there for something greater to happen. It could have been 100 times worse.”
It was also the day Swanby and a buddy almost became living ice sculptures.
As they were hosing down the cars, a mist of water coated them. “We were pretty much frozen in place,” he said. “The wet clothes became like a suit of armor.” Other firefighters “had to chip the ice away from our feet. They laid us in the back of the pickup truck and drove us to the fire station to thaw.
“It was the busiest day in the fire department’s history,” he said. There were structure fires all over town, evacuations and emergency shelters to set up. The department hadn’t dealt with anything like it since the 1935 earthquake.
“It was a long three days,” he said of how long it took to put out the fire and transfer the chemicals. “The whole time, it was bitterly cold.”
Carroll College
The subzero cold proved a blessing on the campus.
“It’s amazing no one was hurt,” said Ed Noonan, who was who was resident director of St. Charles and Borromeo halls and living on the third floor of St. Charles Hall.
Because of the early morning hour, students were in bed instead of on campus heading to classes. And it was too early for rush hour traffic and school buses on Benton Avenue.
Because temperatures had plummeted in 24 hours from about 45 degrees Fahrenheit to minus 27 degrees, the girls in Guadalupe Hall dormitory had pushed their beds away from the windows, said Noonan.
They’d also tucked in their curtains to keep out the cold, and these caught the exploding glass shards — preventing serious injuries.
But when the blast hit and the windows shattered, the dark was filled with screams as terrified residents tried to figure out what was happening.
Noonan, who was shaken from his bed in the dark, immediately thought it was an earthquake. “I had one leg in my pants, and I was looking out the east window facing the old transformer (switching) station of Montana Power, and it exploded.
“Right away there were emergency personnel on campus,” he recalled. “They were concerned about toxic fumes. There was really heavy black smoke” towering above the crash site.
Students and staff were directed to O’Connell Hall, where buses picked them up, taking them to emergency shelters — primarily the National Guard Armory, which happened to have its own generators for heat.
Most grabbed their heaviest winter coats. A few took their six packs. One proudly told a news reporter of saving a case of beer and his package of Hostess Ding Dongs.
News photos and footage show the students tucked in blankets, sitting on floors along the shelter wall laughing and singing.
Since this was in the days before cellphones, students stood in a long line to call home, reassuring frantic parents that all was well.
Soon community members showed up at the shelters and took students home with them.
“By noon, all the students were gone,” said Noonan. “It’s one of those bits of knowledge of what kind of community Helena is.
“Instead of a tragedy, it became an adventure,” he said.
And, it appears, from comments in the campus newspaper, The Prospector, that students were delighted to have classes canceled, and not expected to resume before Feb. 12, 1989.
The cause
Following an extensive investigation, the National Transportation Safety Board released a report Feb. 12, 1990. It noted a combination of factors including the extreme weather, equipment failures and human error.
In the early morning hours, Montana Rail Link Train 121 had stopped on a mountain grade at Austin near Mullan Pass to switch around helper engines because the lead unit had lost heat.
To make the switch, the crew uncoupled the locomotives from the freight cars, leaving them parked unattended on a 2.2 percent mountain grade.
The temperature in Austin at the time, according to the National Weather Service, was 36 degrees below zero, and 10 inches of snow was on the ground.
The probable cause of the accident, said NTSB, was the failure of the crew of Train 121 “to properly secure their train by placing the train brakes in emergency and applying hand brakes when it was left standing unattended on a mountain grade.”
A contributing factor was the failure of MRL management to adequately assess the qualifications and training of employees placed in train service.
Earlier in the day, train crews had noted leakage from the airbrakes because of the extreme cold, which was not corrected before leaving Helena and heading for the pass.
A few of the other topics addressed were faulty cab heaters, a crew that was improperly dressed to handle a 72 degree drop in temperature within 48 hours, and “inaccurate waybills” about the actual shipment in the box cars and tanker cars.
Also faulted was the Helena Police Department dispatcher for failing to send personnel to the Benton Avenue crossing after receiving two phone calls that a “small accident” had happened there.
Immediate aftermath
Some of the immediate aftermath of the crash and three days of Arctic weather that followed were that water pipes burst all over town, particularly at Carroll College. Plumbers had long waiting lists, according to news reports.
Aquariums across campus froze solid.
Russ Ritter, who was mayor at the time and vice president for Carroll College Relations, said they couldn’t find enough plywood in town to cover all the broken windows across campus and in the city.
To him, the key of what worked was communication.
As soon as he knew what was happening, he was issuing news releases and going on the radio, he said. He also set up a call station to field phone calls from across the country and world — particularly from distressed parents.
Paul Spengler, the Lewis and Clark County coordinator of disaster and emergency services, said the train crash changed its emergency operations.
After it, the county instituted an Incident Command System — so that everyone knew their roles and responsibilities and to whom they reported.
They also fixed radio communication problems. At the time of the crash and fire, Spengler didn’t have any radio communication with first responders at the crash site.
“It’s the biggest disaster I’ve been involved in — in the 34 years on the job,” he said. “It was the biggest disaster since the 1935 earthquake.”
25 years later
As to Montana Rail Link, it made changes, according to an email from its president, Thomas J. Walsh.
It has purchased “state-of-the-art locomotives” and also positioned locomotive power at not only the front of the train but also the rear.
“Information on trains with hazardous material is instantly available to dispatchers and field personnel,” he wrote. And MRL provides “comprehensive training programs” to its staff both in the classroom and on the job regarding operating policies and safe operations in accordance with Federal Railroad Administration regulations, he wrote.
But for many in Helena, like Ed Noonan and a number of the first responders, that day remains as a reason to count one’s blessings.
 Image result for Montana Runaway Train 1989
That was 1989 in Montana's own crown fire (Mullen pass runaway). Runaway battery fire is an evil on airplanes. Broken window seals are also an evil on high flying airplanes.