The A380 is a "want aircraft", the type of pair of shoes that are only warn on Saturday Nights but lack a practical nature. It flies around at only the biggest and most fancy airports, where airport authorities have invested millions in order to seat this aircraft at the table. "I also want the 10 meter sail boat instead of the power boat, even though one lives on a small lake." That won't happen its not rational or practical.
The 747-8I should have a separate China prospectus from Boeing, which I imagine they do, but is not published for people like me. But with an over 6,000 aircraft demand backlog identified in China, I am sure the 747-8I fits in that number somewhere. If only it can hang in there a little longer, the market is coming back to the 747-8I. Now for some details as to what it will take.
- Seat Mile
- Passenger Capacity
Every one of those bullet points has been addressed by Boeing. Even lead time to market is quicker than the A380. China can and probably will fit some 747-8I's into its airports, while those fancy shoes are only shown in fancy airports. I am not saying China's airports aren't fancy, but its emergence requires efficient and effective aircraft, because of its strong potential growth. Boeing is pitching effective and efficient at this moment in history and its winning. They have flipped the market paradigm on its head from Airbus back to Boeing. Airbus is scrambling to keep up with Boeing. In sales and in production. Boeing exceeds Airbus in both Gross and Net Orders, this years production results will give Boeing a huge advantage at the end of December, 2014. Boeing didn't lay down during the early part of this century. In fact it rallied to the point it will be hard for Airbus to catch it with its disjointed family of aircraft. They are calling in all customer markers at this time in order to catch Boeing. Those customers are in lock step for the NEO concept and a shredded A350 family where the A350-900 is only standard bearer for plastic. Boeing has pulled off the triple play with its family of 787s.
The 747-8I will come out of hibernation with the China Market as the A380 is too cumbersome and ill fitted for the market. The 777X will seep in, as bridge builder for the mid-body 787's. The 737 MAX is the rice and bamboo shoot server for China's regional needs. Boeing is crowing with 6,000 aircraft needed, as report by 2033.