"The Boeing Book"

This time of year there is a great pondering for all Air Geeks about how any year like 2018 will shake out? How many orders will Boeing book for the year 2018? A whole journal published on a weekly basis could be devoted to this topic. In fact, each weekly publication could have an Order or new model rumor section. It could have an editorial section on pending orders not yet in play and as a strong possibility of what happened. It also could have a standing order book that would report everything happening last month and YTD orders much like Boeing's own website has tried to but has miserably failed at really informing its Av-geeks of what's really happening. It's really confusing on how it tally's what is really going on in its industry and it shows.

A real book cover below, on the subject.

I have a hard time ciphering with any degree of accuracy how it arrives at its real orders and deliveries during any part of the year but using only a brief subtotal from each quarterly report or a final annual report for a given time period, there is some relief on the subject matter. Yes, there is never a clear answer and that should be left for the professional guessers, the journalist but certainly not blogging!

A case in point is the massive speculation on what December will report from its monthly activity. Already the press reported 150 single-aisle orders from two customers, flyadeal and Green Africa (30/20 and 50/50 respectively-orders/options). Lion Air is claiming a withdrawal from the Boeing order book, amounting to about $22 billion in total. The aircraft number is for about 200 single-aisle not yet delivered but has ordered from Boeing.

The weekly article could summarize quickly if this is a repositioning its liabilities in face of pending lawsuits over the Lion Air Max crash, which so tragically claimed 189 lives just after take-off. 

It could be claimed by Boeing, Lion Air didn't fix a known problem with that one aircraft before take-off and Lion Air failed to fix it or officially instruct its pilot on how to cope with an existing failure experienced from its Boeing systems on this "one 737 Max 8 from previous flights of this model type. Lion Air who has more to lose than Boeing from this terrible incident, as even one lawsuit will take Lion Air out of business, is vengeful against Boeing. It is in a corner and fighting like a wild animal for survival. 

However, Boeing is at stake for almost 5,000 Max sold by Year's end, 2018. That is a whole feature article that should have been discussed by some journalist during December.

Another big article ticket item is the pending or hanging order situation. Emirates ordered 40 787-10 but nothing has been finalized for that extremely large order, as its right to not announce until a much later date. 

However, a good beat reporter might find out the status of this LOI for 40 787-10's. That in itself is a major article fleshed out of the woodwork from a leased building near Puget Sound. There are many more hanging orders stories ready for plucking off from the journalistic low hanging fruit tree.

What about China? It is a weekly section devoted to what's up with China? Boeing is opening a final checkout and assembly center in a quid pro quo move with China for selling more aircraft to this merging giant having a population well north of one billion people. Boeing must counter Airbus and Comac within the region for China's wealthy aviation aspirations. Once again, China's lo hang fruit changes on a weekly basis. 

Finally, why a Boeing journal focused just on Boeing? It's a lynchpin for the world's economy that's why! As Boeing goes so does the world's aviation market go. 

Another feature would define its deal with Embraer and how it parries an Airbus thrust with its Canada's/Bombardier CS300 offering. The macro view of Boeing strategy is one giant chess game out maneuvering moves made by others like Airbus and Bombardier. The Embraer deal is more significant than just another merger. It defines how Boeing is in it to win it strategy. There is a big "independent" reporting hole with aviation reporting needing a counterbalance from Boeing's own selective confusion on its website and the world's idled scatter reporting on the subject. The press is selling space for advertisers as all self-respecting press centers do at the pleasure of Google searching for its readers.

A weekly Boeing journal would plug all gaps from reporting and aviation thinking providing a true analysis for what is happening in aviation's world with a Boeing emphasis to the subject.


Just saying, a weekly and independent "All Things Boeing" journal would be nice emerging during 2019 coming from the professionals.

Becoming A 777X-Oh-phile

The 777 X mania starts during  January 2019. When the engines get hung after the first of the year, there will be stories and photos. Then the 777-9X test aircraft rolls out the big doors there will be stories, photos and lots of Boeing employees. When the 777-9X takes first flight in the spring of 2019, three will be more stories, photos, and a live web stream of the event. The point is 777X insanity has already started for me and Boeing can't keep up with my insatiable appetite for "All Things 777X". I have a problem and have already sought help for this problem. I am a 777X-Oh-phile!

The self-help group didn't help. After I gave my name and condition they just said, "hello Trapper" and moved on to watching the streaming video of the 787's first flight. It was miserable watching something happening almost ten years ago while I am looking at a 2019 calendar cliched firmly in my right hand. No one can help until Boeing puts out another video on its Boeing.com Web site.

I went to DJ's website on youtube for some help, he showed (I watched after clicking on youtube) me his video.

Let's Talk 777X

I went for the cheap beverage in the frig and it shows. If you haven't shaved nor will do so until it successfully first flies, then you are in need of a bath too. 

I went to another 777X video:

This one is from Boeing 

I have a problem and it is; I don't know when the next 777X Video will come out on youtube and Boeing is being lame on purpose as it knows any of the 777X-Oh-Philes out there can just "suck it".

Guy Norris comes into play and teases the 777X on a three-minute video. It just isn't fair Guy. You are a bad man not taking me inside a GE9X engine with real kerosene vapors wreaking havoc from my computer screen 

Guy Talks To You One on One For Three minutes. You can just "suck the fumes"

Can someone out there toss me a lifeline and call a friend? I think so.

Understanding An Automated Airline Disaster, A Sunday Read

This is a good read and it should cause everyone reading to ponder how the Lion Air should of, could of, and would of, prevented its horrific catastrophic 737 Max Crash. Boeing is setting a scary standard. A dependency on letting the systems fly and not the pilot in certain situations. It's a valid debate and it needs your thoughts.

Boeing has a technological fix on the future of flight and it should be asked, what if the failsafe systems fail?

Boeing Photo of The 737 Max Flight Deck

The National Business:

Cockpit automation may be jetliners' Achilles heel

Why flyadeal is a Big Deal To Boeing

Boeing just made a deal with flyadeal for 30 of the 737 Max 8 with an option for 20 more. This is a big deal because Airbus was in the hunt on this one and had a firm foot wedged into flyadeal's front door. Boeing won one for the Gipper. It beat the ever popular A320 on this one. It could mark a turning point in the sales war for the single-aisle, as customers have had plenty of time to evaluate both the NEO and the Max.

Boeing just announced it had firmed up with another airline, Green Africa for fifty Max 737's. Boeing may have turned the tide a while back and it's just now revealing a new trend. Maybe Max is a better aircraft for many reasons. Boeing is in a strong position to bait its customers with lower pricing than Airbus because it has been at this a while longer and it now can undercut the competition.

The trend line has bolted in Boeing's direction for single-aisle sales at this year's end 2018. A curious idea is that Boeing may have pocketed several other sales orders it will not disclose until later. It may wait until the year closes before another success is notched in its single-aisle belt. Each airplane maker knows what the others book will look like on early January's tally sheets. 2018 is setting a new trend and it remains to be seen if Boeing can sustain that trend throughout 2019 having higher single-aisle orders than Airbus. If it does outdo Airbus during 2019, then Boeing has breached the Airbus single-aisle stranglehold and the NMA will be announced sooner rather than later. This would become a decade's long setback for Airbus. Yeah, this week's deal is a big deal!

Did Boeing Slight Lion Air Over 737 Max Crash?

Lion Air is trying to cancel billions in orders over a perceived Boeing slight to its reputation when its newly acquired 737 Max 8 crashed shortly after take-off killing all 189 on board. Boeing wanted nothing to do with the air incident in order to keep selling more Max aircraft and without having customers question the aircraft. Lion Air felt the dismissive nature from Boeing towards Lion Air was enough to stop doing business with Boeing.

Boeing is repairing the damaging threat from Lion Air by selling more 737 Max than what's on backorder for Lion Air's fleet.  In other words, it is moving on while Lion Air's principle stakeholder and founder is trying to throw Boeing under its bus. No pun intended. However, it isn't as simple as getting out of a contracted firm order. Boeing will legally charge Lion Air money from canceled firm orders. It will cost Lion Air more money to get out of Boeing as a loyal customer.

An observer can offer solutions for either player at this time as Lion Air is shouldering the immediate liability with its flying customers and surviving families. Boeing might be exposed to lack of confidence for its 737 Max and then lose sales from that customer position. Boeing would rather have Lion Air eat the consequence of the crash and sell more airplanes to other and having Lion Air implode. 

Lion Air does not want to implode and would like Boeing to die in its behalf as a Boeing problem. Losing sales to Lion Air may be the death throes of a dying airline position. They can't buy all the airplanes they ordered because of the crash. It happened to Pan Am after Lockerbie, Scotland's 747 crash. It can happen to Lion Air. The owner of Lion Air knows this and perhaps the early news is that Lion Air is about to shoulder this blame and it will cause its house of financial cards to fall as a result. That is why Boeing is calling in all sales deals at the end of this year. It must find about $22 billion in airplane sales order to replace an air loss from Lion Air.

If the crash investigators find a jointly responsible series of errors Boeing is too big to fail. but Lion Air isn't because there is enough evidence to point fingers at Lion Air and not enough finger pointing for Boeing's position. There are too many Max's flying without a history of problems. There are too many flight crews who have not made bad decisions while flying the 737 Max. 

There simply is not enough supporting evidence to overcome Lion Air's position of a lack of professional acumen. Lion Air is on the way of becoming one of the crash victims. It may not overcome the slippery slope of paying out so much money to lawyers over this matter. Boeing has its lawyers too! If Boeing does sell another 100 737 Max by the of the year they may horribly say. Lion who? At this point, it doesn't bring back Lion Air's casualty of its customers. It's a terrible consequence of the business. 

Boeing did not slight Lion Air over the crash. It is defending itself from another entity's problems while quietly fixing any problems with its product. Every traveler must understand any conveyance is a matter of risk regardless of how many times, it works correctly. Even going downstairs in the morning can not turn out well. The Lion Air crash brings us back to reality, not everything works right everytime and that's the reality that Lion Air is now facing.

SR-71 Stories

On youtube, you can watch SR-71 videos of its exploits but sometimes hearing the real stories from it designers and pilots are more effective than a youtube video about the SR-71. I have written before on this blog about the SR-71. But memories stay firm. It out flew the North Vietnamese flying Telephone Poles. It caused Mig 25's to explode its engines. It caused a waste of missiles and aircraft flying out of Libya over the Mediterranean Sea. The story goes on and then you hear it again on youtube in a watered down version. It was America's last great jet that did not carry weapons.

The SR-71 was just plain fast. I am sure America has built its replacement whether, in satellite or winged aircraft, there is something American made replacing the SR-71. It retired some 20 years ago from the NASA program, marking its last paid gig? The news today is about what replaced it not what it can outfly. The mention about the SR-71 is bourne out of admiration for what slide rule and test tanks can do so long ago.

Here-here Blackbird and cheers with thanks

Boeing Could Now Breach 1,000 Airplane Orders in 2018 with Today's Announcement.

With Nigerian based Green Africa Airways ordering a 50-50 deal with Boeing (purchase -options), and another 30-20 for "flyadeal" of Saudi Arabia, Boeing has poised itself to fend off another furious Airbus late booking surge it usually uses to beat a Boeing order year. In all Boeing and its customers announced a $17.6 billion compiled order swing its way. Airbus will go all in sometime after the first of next year claiming orders for 2018.

Boeing has changed how it tallies its order book. It only announces order book data once a month sometime in the second week of each month. It was a weekly reporting last year. The December order number should come out around January 10, 2018. Airbus' habit is to report its order numbers in the first week of each month. Boeing for 2018, is playing the order game differently this year in hopes of topping Airbus for order bragging rights. 

With another firm 80, and 70 optioned 737 Max aircraft reported today, it would bring Boeing's net order book count to 770 firm orders. Just 230 units shy of 1,000 ordered for 2018. It is within reach if Boeing has several more mega orders in its hip pocket it has been working on.

It's Time To Link To Boeing's Financials

The end of the year is near and sometime in January 2019, you will be able to read how many more billion from the deferred balance sheet Boeing has erased by delivering almost 800 787's. Boeing has delivered 787units all time and 139 units YTD.

Boeing Accounting Considerations Link  Deferred Balance is $23 Billion, A 3qtr number

Boeing Financials

It is interesting to note YoY comparisons from 2017 totals to through 2018 performances as one could derive how much money has been written down for every 787 delivered. A number could be projected for when the deferred balance is extinguished in the 787 programs. That would be a rough number but it would give you a chance to estimate when. Currently, Boeing has delivered 139 of the 787 this year it may end up with 142 delivered. Then after the year closes and fourth quarter numbers for special accounting considerations are factored in for the 2018 period one can estimate how Boeing is doing making the 787 programs financially efficient.  

Boeing's Plain Order Book Could Go North of 1,000 in 2019

Boeing has booked a net of 690 airplane orders without the month of December counted until the first two weeks of 2019 reporting on its website. I would expect that number to come out by January 10, 2019. Therefore, 2019 could include a rapidly expanding order book if it announces the 797 at the Paris Airshow in a mid-summer dream. It could possibly book 400 797 orders alone thus making a 1,000 airplane order book a reasonable projection for Boeing's 2019 count.

The 737 Max program took a jolt when Lion Air crashed its eight-month-old 737-8 Max killing 189. The airline would like to blame Boeing for inadequate information provided on its aircraft having a new system without proper information. However, the jury is still out and it looks more like Lion Air had inadequate personnel from the ground up and it sent an unworthy aircraft to its doom with all people onboard dying. Lion Air has announced it will cancel its outstanding order for the Max program as a reaction to Boeing's position on the matter. No other carrier having the Max has experienced a similar catastrophe and it has not been reported to date that other airlines are having difficulty with its 737 Max aircraft to this extent. I expect more 737 Max orders if no conclusion is reached in the next few months concerning its crash. Lion Air is in trouble on this one and it may not be able to even order more aircraft without stiff financial help or confidence.

Embraer has now entered the Boeing family beyond the handshake level after signing papers and taking $4 billion from Boeing.  It can expand with a Boeing aspiration in 80/20 joint commercial airplane venture. Boeing has essentially bought a highly successful airplane building program for $4 billion and with it comes the engineers it needs to build the 797 sooner rather than later. the 7/80/7/7 venture gives Airbus a jab in the shorts regarding the small end of the airplane market. The Airbus Bombardier could end up being a boat anchor for Airbus as it absorbs the CS300 program. Its program health is sound for a quality Canadian product but very limited in the big scheme of aviation.
things.

Boeing is leasing 58 more/less acres at Paine field under the pretense of more airplane storage needed and a footnote where it could convert some of the space to manufacturing when needed. The lot lays just adjacent to the runway. A similar position found in Renton Washington at the 737 manufacturing plant. It's getting to feel a lot like Christmas for the 797 execs residing in an office building somewhere in Seattle, Wa.

Boeing is becoming a Juggernaut it always pretended to be growing up. 

Still Writing An Internet Book "Skalkaho" Enjoy it ,Will Take You To A Place You haven't Visited.

Here is a link staring with chapter 8.

Skalkaho Chapter 8: A Jungle Pilgrimage

It's up to chapter thirteen in the very rough draft form. You could say it is there and a lot of editing to go but that is phase two of writing. Taking a second crack with improving the storyline. Right now just done getting the story first is the goal. I post this here in Winging It because the most time is spent on aviation blogging. Writing a story is a break from airplanes.

Here other chapters from the beginning were you bookmark the chapters for your own referencing

Introduction To Skalkaho

Skalkaho Chapter 1: Blackleaf Camp

Skalkaho Chapter 2: Skalkaho Attacks

Skalkaho Chapter 3: Otaki Is Running Eagle

Skalkaho Chapter 4: Falling Running Eagle And Skalkaho Join As One

Skalkaho Chapter 5: The Rendezvous Breaks

Skalkaho Chapter 6: High School, 1970 and Vietnam

Skalkaho Chapter 7: Ecc. 3:6 A Time To Search

Skalkaho Chapter 8: A Jungle Pilgrimage

Skalkaho Chapter 9: The Beginning Of The End

SKalakaho Chapter 10: Meet Jeff Danbury

Chapter 11: Bangkok, Land of Plenty

12: Bangkok, A Way Home

13: The Plantation A Flexible Mold