When the radar bleep tells the operator its an F-15 incoming, a little planted device on the vertical tail wing of the F-35 root sends a F-15 like profile back to that radar indicating its not an F-35 to the operator.
Advantage, F-35 since it became as visible as an F-15. Stealth aside this little nuance confuses what defenders need when the F-35 is coming in.
Source SOFREP:
"The notched bumps, which are called Luneberg reflectors, serve a purpose."
To confuse and obfuscate is the new weapon. The Navy version will not have this version. I would expect this to be a plug and play feature used in combat as conditions warrant its need since it exposes it as an object entering the battle space. Not all F-35 will have this capability as invisibility is also a needed advantage. More importantly, this signals a maturity of the F-35 program. The military has begun its ad hoc experimentation on how this frame can be modified for all combat condition. The plug and play phase of weaponizing under all conditions has begun. The period the F-35 has entered will continue throughout its life cycle going forward.
My Blog List
Saturday, May 6, 2017
Friday, May 5, 2017
C919 Is Flying But Where?
The Chinese COMAC, C919, has flown the coop on its first flight. The Seattle Times offers a quick overview of this accomplishment and what it does for the market. Dominic Gates writes with his assembly of observations in very clear picture.
Key Quote:
"Yet Richard Aboulafia, industry analyst with the Teal Group, believes that the central planning element and lack of any competition in the Chinese aerospace manufacturing economy inevitably will doom the C919 to mediocrity and unprofitably."
This opinion comes from Winging It's, take it or leave it common sense. There are 3 parts mentioned in this this opinion.
- Can COMAC compete?
- Will the C919 change the current duopoly
- Are customers wanting the C919
The compete question is tied up will Chinese ability of constructing an aircraft of this stature meeting and exceeding Boeing's 100 years of learning, error, and success and Airbus 46 years with Billions of government Euros making it so. COMAC has "borrowed" on Boeing's and Airbus' experience but there is no replacement for ones own experience. Common sense says China has another twenty years before it will get significant notice on its aviation accomplishments.
The current Boeing/Airbus duopoly is the holy aviation cow where many have approached but never have made it as a third wheel in the market place. Embraer, Bombardier, and everybody else who flies crop dusters have a niche place for which Boeing and Airbus will not allow into its mega club. COMAC is a government "allowed" consortium which has a parasitical business model of if we can't do it we will just take from others. I wonder who was the engineer in COMAC who stumbled upon using a side joy stick just like the Airbus version. Then the Chinese engine makers came up with a remarkable CFM engine from Safran and GE for its C919. The Chinese could use the CFM initials so they chose the GE-Safran consortium CFM engine. By the way CFM was much debated into the Chinese Fast-Moving moniker once the oversight committee agreed. It was a smart move to buy technology you don't have than wait 40 years to develop it.
The COMAC by the Seattle Times chart above, speciously demonstrates a spot between the Boeing and Airbus single aisle dimensions and capacity. The Chinese engineers came up with a best fit by finding a midpoint between the two and made the COMAC a few inches here and there different and a few passenger here and there different. A room full of 1,500 engineers worked out the details of what the C919 would look like. Another forty years gained by borrowing from the mega builders parts bin.
The final point of market acceptance comes to the forefront. Do customers want the C919 on its own merits?
Second tier regional Chinese Airline customers will do it in quantity per party bulletin issued. The more affluent Chinese airlines will buy-in with token orders out of nationalistic "pride". The affluent airlines are world players and bend towards market competition and are buying first rate air frames from Boeing and Airbus in numbers.
COMAC does not have a world support foot print for its parts, maintainers and manufacturer's technical support. Customers can't buy and stay competitive without those key field components in play everywhere.
Thus, the C919 is relegated to the Chinese zip code and other peripheral customers. It will take another 40 years to spread a world footprint for its business case for its current and future customers.
As the Seattle Times article points out when quoting
Richard Aboulafia.
"Yet Richard Aboulafia, industry analyst with the Teal Group, believes that the central planning element and lack of any competition in the Chinese aerospace manufacturing economy inevitably will doom the C919 to mediocrity and unprofitably.
Writing in his monthly newsletter last year, Aboulafia pointed out that:
“government-managed, funded, and supported jetliners, historically, are not stellar performers.”
“Every single civil aircraft produced by an authoritarian country (or by a socialist economic system) has been a miserable failure on the market,” he wrote.
Thursday, May 4, 2017
Predicting The Weather Is Easier Than Predicting 787 Sales
Its been a long held opinion using the Farmers Almanac is better than a long term weather report. There is no Farmers Almanac feature for predicting Boeing 787 sales for 2017. The wrong person to ask is an overly optimistic Boeing Neophyte like Winging It tries to become. The purpose of the blog is an aviation blog having a Boeing emphasis. Only Airbus referencing is used as a backdrop for the task at hand for enthusiastically analyzing how Boeing will stay on top of the aviation market place.
Winging It pretends to be the Farmers Almanac for Boeing aspirations. Using the ground hog as a tool is not an option, but guessing is more accurate method for coming to a positive conclusion about the 787 sales potential in 2017.
The score card to date includes 13 booked 787, 19 LOI's for 787-10 from Singapore and the recently announced 10 +10 787's from West Jet of Canada. The plus portion are options of course. The final tally comes to 42 of the 787's thus purchased during 2017 to date. Having completed four months of 2017 sales campaign bodes well for the Boeing wide body division when considering two big air shows are upcoming before the close of 2017. In June there is the Paris Airshow at Le Bourget airfield and then the November Dubai Air Show with several interesting potential purchases forming.
The first one that comes to mind is the Emirates Order hanging like a chad in a fall election cycle. It may not even happen until much later as the Wide Body market is "soft" in 2017. The primary reason from this prognostication of a potential Dubai no show for an Emirates order, is from low demand for wide body because of low fuel prices. Once people go to the fuel pump and buy a gallon of gas north of $3.50 a gallon there will be a wide body rush with Emirates leading all the airline suitors. A problem for Boeing is that Airbus is in play with Emirates and so far it is falling Boeing's way during the early part of 2017 and Emirates is using Airbus offer as leverage for making a Boeing order.
Singapore wants the 777X model to the tune of 20 units, which will/should be announced later this year. Now there are 62 wide body chips stacked so far with Boeing 2017 order book in a "Down Year". The upcoming 8 months should round Boeing out with over 100 wide bodies ordered by year's end.
The ground hog will go into hibernation before year's end and will not be used for any further aviation sales prognostications. However, much to Winging It's immense knowledge, it can better the ground hog, Farmers Almanac, and Boeing's close to the vest stance with a robust trend announcement. It will snow in December in Canada. Other than that Boeing already has a good year going for it when considering its a down year. Even if it picks up another "Baker's Dozen" 787 orders it will be considered a great year rather than just a good year.
Winging It pretends to be the Farmers Almanac for Boeing aspirations. Using the ground hog as a tool is not an option, but guessing is more accurate method for coming to a positive conclusion about the 787 sales potential in 2017.
The score card to date includes 13 booked 787, 19 LOI's for 787-10 from Singapore and the recently announced 10 +10 787's from West Jet of Canada. The plus portion are options of course. The final tally comes to 42 of the 787's thus purchased during 2017 to date. Having completed four months of 2017 sales campaign bodes well for the Boeing wide body division when considering two big air shows are upcoming before the close of 2017. In June there is the Paris Airshow at Le Bourget airfield and then the November Dubai Air Show with several interesting potential purchases forming.
The first one that comes to mind is the Emirates Order hanging like a chad in a fall election cycle. It may not even happen until much later as the Wide Body market is "soft" in 2017. The primary reason from this prognostication of a potential Dubai no show for an Emirates order, is from low demand for wide body because of low fuel prices. Once people go to the fuel pump and buy a gallon of gas north of $3.50 a gallon there will be a wide body rush with Emirates leading all the airline suitors. A problem for Boeing is that Airbus is in play with Emirates and so far it is falling Boeing's way during the early part of 2017 and Emirates is using Airbus offer as leverage for making a Boeing order.
Singapore wants the 777X model to the tune of 20 units, which will/should be announced later this year. Now there are 62 wide body chips stacked so far with Boeing 2017 order book in a "Down Year". The upcoming 8 months should round Boeing out with over 100 wide bodies ordered by year's end.
The ground hog will go into hibernation before year's end and will not be used for any further aviation sales prognostications. However, much to Winging It's immense knowledge, it can better the ground hog, Farmers Almanac, and Boeing's close to the vest stance with a robust trend announcement. It will snow in December in Canada. Other than that Boeing already has a good year going for it when considering its a down year. Even if it picks up another "Baker's Dozen" 787 orders it will be considered a great year rather than just a good year.
Monday, May 1, 2017
Boeing Cools Its Single Aisle Jets In Production As The Max slots In
The Boeing Corporation only built 38 737 NG's for its customers during April 2017. Below is the Winging Tracking for Single Aisle delivery.
Fig. 1
In all,Boeing produced 52 of its aircraft for the customers during April, 2017 and has netted delivering 221 for all types YTD.
Wide body types produced during April 2017 stands at 14.
Fig.2
More Airbus to Boeing data will be provided as soon as Airbus updates its website. Boeing, both in sales and delivery were down over its prior months but will maintain a lead over Airbus for the "2017 World's Largest Airplane Maker" distinction.
In the meantime this is a Boeing snapshot of its deliveries for April.
Fig. 1
In all,Boeing produced 52 of its aircraft for the customers during April, 2017 and has netted delivering 221 for all types YTD.
Wide body types produced during April 2017 stands at 14.
Fig.2
More Airbus to Boeing data will be provided as soon as Airbus updates its website. Boeing, both in sales and delivery were down over its prior months but will maintain a lead over Airbus for the "2017 World's Largest Airplane Maker" distinction.
In the meantime this is a Boeing snapshot of its deliveries for April.
Sunday, April 30, 2017
Thursday, April 27, 2017
It's Time To Complain Again About The F-35
Displacement is an old term with a new application. The
theory of a floating object weighing the same as a rock, suggests it should not
float. However, creating a space inside a rock will
displace a volume of water which weighs the same as the hollowed out rock thus making
it float. The critics look at the F-35 as a rock that can’t float nor does the
rock have enough power to make it fly using those conclusions as a core
criticism.
But in reality the F-35 program has both the necessary
displacement and power to make it swim in a sea of air and fly very fast. Many critics have not factored in how the F-35 program's little displacement
can float a program. Looking at a block of cement, conventional wisdom, would
demand it won’t float and could only fly a few feet from a brick layers hands.
Yet there are concrete boats that float.
The primary criticism speaks of plausible opinions where the
F-35 will lose in combat. The assumption infers that it’s a Bumble Bee and it shouldn’t fly at all, yet a Bumble bee can navigate between rain drops or the
sprinkler hose drops. An F-35 will just plain lose because its wings are too
small like the Bumble bee where fifth generation computers won’t make up the
difference.
Additionally, the worry here is that the F-35 is too far
down the road and there is no turning back. It can’t survive a fight. Just like
the concrete boat sinks or the Bumble bee dodges rain, it can’t do what its
developers say it can do. Traditional wisdom tells us concrete sinks, Bumble
Bees shouldn’t fly and the F-35 can’t fight. Who is right and who is wrong?
The answer comes from tests after tests and then war games
after war games. War after-all is real and how real is the F-35 fighting a war?
The critics weigh in at this point. Those are same ones that never have flown
an F-35. The pilots who fly them are either earning their pay by agreeing with
its bosses or out of pride. After all the DoD pays the salary. The pilots will
not reveal secrets when asked, but they will reveal how well the decision it
was to build this aircraft.
The industry wide consensus patronizes support of the
government position and the critics sell opinion as gamblers gamble for a
living. In fact, the opinionated tends to critique the government for its gambling
with the nation’s defense as a curious twist of reasoning.
Everything bad about
the F-35 supports the nay-sayers and everything remarkable about the F-35 is
embellished by the defense of this nation.
So what has Lockheed wrought? The best answer at this point
is looking at Red Flag exercises for which the F-35 finally participated. Even
if it were a fixed fight, the F-35 flew remarkably over the best 4th
generation American fighters with fantastic 15:1 kill ratio over adversary
aircraft in the event.
However, this was a test of capability without a final
version of its software installed. It will become more lethal with version 3F
installed even since that Red Flag war game version. It dodges rain drops at Mach
1.6 and the Bumble can’t fly that fast. It drops bombs faster than a concrete
boat launching, but on a dime.
The critics have not included how technology displacement is
floating this concept. The new school of thought is not in dog fighting. It is supersonic
techno fighting where it doesn’t have to go Mach 2.0. However, the F-35 pulls
9+ G’s. It takes the inside corner away from escaping dog fighters and shoots.
Much has been written about its already “old” stealth capability.
You can’t fight what you can’t see approach that the F-35 offers is years away
from being caught up with from its onlookers. Its super computer capability fuses
data into one giant computer rendering where any two-seater neck jockeys has to
retire from eye strain when trying to keep up. This isn’t a dog fight, its annihilation
time for any adversary.
If the US wanted to use X-15’s for dog fighters, it could have
done that 60 years ago. Having a drag racer for a fighter jet is not wise nor
is it practical. The F-35 is more of an extremely smart sports car. Put six of
them in the air and it becomes a swarm of Bumble bees attacking a hapless sun
bather. The only weakness is its weapons load capability. It may run out of
munitions before clearing the battle space. Even its paltry 25mm cannon has too
few rounds to sustain a spanking. It was put there in case some day it might
need to use it as a last resort. Remembering the early generation fighter
pilots carried a side-arm with six shots on the hip as some kind of courage
maker when shot down. The 25mm cannon will make a mark when needed.
The critics will sound smart and adversarial players will
copy the F-35 or its concept but what lies beneath its skin is where the fight
begins.
Saturday, April 22, 2017
Boeing’s Corporate Soul Is an Endangered Species
For so long has corporate after corporation strives for a
fat bottom line with a straight line drawn by consolidations, quality
reductions and a search for the cheapest part. The program engineer sometimes
become an endangered species as lay-offs become part of the corporate thirst
for just-in-time investor satisfaction. Somehow the main product becomes the
investor when abating risk is the Pablum for every investor.
Boeing has taken a wait and see position thus offering the
door to hundreds of high paid employees until more sales are generated. The
rationale is directed towards future market cycles slumping. As good stewards
of investor money it will cut forces. The corporate soul is owned by money and
everything else exist because of that money.
Back in the day the corporate mind set was building hugely
successful products and the investors will come. The inverse follows with
building hugely lean processes where the investor will profit.
Clear back to 2003, Boeing faced a crash by not having
hugely successful products. They weren’t family and people love families while its investors love margins, shares, and such things. The mind set coming from
investor thinking, “Go fire the fuel truck driver”, if it fattens the profit
margin. Boeing aircraft happen to run on fuel.
Boeing has laid off hundreds of its higher skilled engineers
because it will fatten the bottom line to do so. However, another perspective
is why Boeing hasn’t used these people in its vast organization for the making
of superior products which makes them indispensable. It suggests a Boeing waste
of personnel has occurred and they must “go” because investors demand a
reduction in force before stock prices can increase.
The simplistic rationale becomes traditional for its corporate-investor relationship. The micro-managing of expense items is the
tweak for inspiring investments during a down sales year. In fact by years end
when Boeing sales supersedes its competitor, Boeing stock will rise, while
those “dispensable” engineers are long gone.
If it can be done cheaper with fewer people is the corporate
engine of success. This happens too often in corporate world. The older concept
of building the best is a risky gamble when profits are wrung out of cheap
things becomes better motto to live by. No longer are things made for the pleasure of the
customer but for the pleasure of investor.
This is more of an Allan Mulally story than a blog idea.
Allan Mulally ran the Boeing commercial division until the Ford Motor Company
had swept him away. Why? Because his vision is what a failing car company
needed. Allan led the Boeing wide-body charge in the early 21st century
the he engineered ford to its success. He defied the corporate conventional
wisdom of cutting cost until becoming rich then leaving. An engineer had a
vision to build it best and everything else falls into place. He was no cost
cutting bean counter saving the corporate millions for the profitable investor.
He was a sound old school performer who wanted to make it great or don’t do it
at all.
In spite of its moon-shot problems encountered during the
787’s early program. The Mulally die had been cut. Boeing would take it to the
next product level that even its competitor would fear to tread. His
engineering sense made it so.
Since the arrival at Ford, Alan Mulally and even later his
retirement, Ford has achieved a remarkable automotive turn around. They make a
product people love. In fact being a big Chrysler fan, I have since lost
interest in its product, because Ford brings a new game to the table which
works well for me. The Chrysler-Fiat merger made me think more about Ford than
anything.
Now corporate stiffs run Boeing. Engineers are being
laid-off as may show less respect to the customer than for its investors is
revealed. Boeing is not using its human resource well then having to lay off
engineers. It tells me Boeing is run by a different breed of leadership which
adheres to its main job of packing golden parachutes.
The HP example of an emerging leader in the computer world
until they embarked onto the slippery slope of corporate self-service. It has
shrunk, reduced, and imploded itself for the sake of corporate self-enrichment
over customer satisfaction. Caught in the middle are its people who are slowly
disappearing due to lay-offs and retirement packages. Soon it will be another
American memory of how stockholders will reinvest into something else.
When a person refers to a corporate soul, it refers to what
purpose the corporation has for being. Is it for its customers or is it for its
leadership?
Wednesday, April 19, 2017
Where Does The 777-8X Fit
The 350 seat 777-8X has exciting potential
for many airlines needing fills for seasonal campaigns such as trans-traveling
the globe on any seasonal schedule. An Air New Zealand snippet in today's news
cycle has hit on a place for the 777-8X. The "Travel Talk" is quoted
as:
Air New Zealand...
"The airline currently operates a 302 seat Boeing
787-9 Dreamliner aircraft on the year round route with flights between 3-4
times weekly. From late September 2017 until early March 2018 the route will be
upgraded to a 312 seat Boeing 777-200ER for the majority of flights, with the
Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner continuing to supplement it."
There it
is, a place for the 777-8X. It seats about 350 and really goes the distance.
Air New Zealand could expand operations with 787-9's and then move a seasonal
route in by using the 777-8X. The interesting observation for any two tier
aircraft venture become an attractive concept using a variety of wide body
frames. The 787-9 is great for intercontinental travel and the 777-8X becomes
the pinch hitter chasing seasonal surges. The 777-8X is in the up to 8,000 mile
range. It can chase the seasons anywhere on the globe and fill the cabin with
350 holiday passengers. Air New Zealand must be looking at the 777-8X if it
uses the 777-200 currently for junkets.
However,
the Air New Zealand offering is not a one off situation while many other
airlines could expand using a combo of the 787-9, and then reposition with a
777-8X in an ever changing seasonal clientele. Once an airline can position the
ultra-long range behemoth for Canadian summers and then broad the expanse of
the Pacific winters, the route switching and utility of the 777-8X becomes a
preferred tool in the market place travel kits.
Air New
Zealand unconsciously placed the 777-200 into its rotation so it also means
other Airlines have similar strategies in play. The 777-200 is a useful tool
and the 777-8X is a dashing experience cross broad expanses chasing the
seasons.
The F-35 Will Soon Move To Full Rate Production
The official acronym is not yet revealed for
pushing out 100 F-35's a year from Lockheed's Big Texas doors. Winging It, after
exhaustive research has come up with FRP replacing the LRIP status over the
next year. Low Rate Initial Production or LRIP has been the constant reference
since 2007 as the chart below reveals.
F-35
History Chart:
As of March 31, 2017
Lockheed Martin has delivered 231 of the F-35's V generation. Looking at the
chart above are the Salmon colored lines worth noting. The first line marks
about 210 F-35's delivered by mid-January 2017, completing the contracts for
LRIP 1-8. Lot 12 denotes FRP moniker.
However, 2017 will start
burning through the LRIP-9 contract “back lot” during 2017, resulting in a breaching
of its LRIP-10 lot in the first half of 2018. There are two terms in play
in the above chart. One is the noted LRIP contract unit number and the other is
the actual production number delivered. The far right column is just a pacing
number not based on actual deliveries but a straight slope for LRIP contract
delivery pacing. When the LRIP-10 contract units enter the factory floor,
Lockheed will rapidly approach FRP as the chart indicates a predictive FRP
status for contract lot 12. An arbitrary pace increase is exampled by a 100
unit jump when LRIP-9 units are being built. Currently as mentioned the
Lockheed/F-35 has finally exhausted the LRIP-8 contract backlog and now has
about 25 % of the LRIP-9 contract units completed when it reached 231 units delivered
at the end of March 2017.
A convoluted view of having two quantitative attributes in play with contract numbers and its actual
production numbers examined, but understanding both numbers helps for future
reading when a report says 231 F-35's have been delivered an observer can see
what contract is the 231st unit has come from and how many F-35's are
expected in a current year. As of the end of March, 2017, it could be expected
about seventy more F-35's will be delivered in 2017.
Monday, April 17, 2017
Forecasting Boeing 2017, Huh
Boeing will drop hundreds of engineers soon
as its sales team reports a down year. Anyways that's my take on the Boeing memo
to "bubble" employees otherwise known as last hired first fired or
turning 55 is so hard to do Boeing work groups.
Memo
Quote:
"We are moving forward with a second phase of
involuntary layoffs for some select skills in Washington State and other
enterprise locations," the memo said. "We anticipate this will impact
hundreds of engineering employees. Additional reductions in engineering later
this year will be driven by our business environment and the amount of
voluntary attrition."
Okay so 2017 sucks to be in Boeing's Workers Anonymous Union (WAU) or fondly referred to as "wow" with those who jockey at a CAD.
Boeing's VCMCO Explaining To The Shop Steward What's Up With That
see seven or eight or seven paragraphs below for what is a VCMCO??
The
WAU disciples are facing what sales call a down year and somebody has to pay
while stockholders can invest into more Boeing stock when incentivized by the WAU
layoffs.
Boeing is "moving forward", so speaks the memo to
the minions. Every "cube" matters group is hosting last day office
parties months ahead of the ax falling on hundreds of engineers who have
little justification for being there in front of its CAD screens. Drawing
lines from the engine to the stern of anything with wings is not needed since sales are forecasted sluggish. "Analyze
this" is the battle cry coming from corporate top floors sitting above the
engineers. Sales are sluggish in 2017 and Boeing will retrain engineers for
finding gainful restaurant work from the North West to the South East, for those who "want fries with that".
The forecast signal from Boeing memos are more important than
just a few hundred engineers. Production is full steam ahead and no production
workers should worry during the remainder 2017.
The pending layoff is an efficiency and expense line item
move for the stockholders. Boeing will hire more engineers next year. After-all, the 737 Max and 787-10 are now flying. The 777X program is too far north to
worry about engineering program lay-offs at this time. The problem is Boeing has no up and
coming new airplane project requiring more engineers. There are 10's of thousands of
Boeing engineers remaining at work while even if 1,000 engineers are canned, it becomes a
mere brow sweep of the back hand.
The wow union rep stands aghast at Boeing's signal to
the masses as if Donald Trump were running things. After-all the union is
trying so hard to cure workers from work related habitations with its twelve step program and they are
only on step 3. Workers Anonymous Union will strike if forced into a lay-off. The
chief argument is how can Boeing engineers not work at work during a lay off?
A loud upper floor back slap is heard down stairs after the
memo was distributed and reported in the news cycle. Going 4-5 years to
engineering school is no guarantee of continuous employment after 55.
Those who go to their first class reunion could be dismissed. Going
to class reunions is a rite of passage just as the pink slip is a badge of
honor for those students who still have loans outstanding.
WAU union demands a meeting with Boeing Engineering
executives. The question is posed to upper management, "why can't we not
work?” in perfect cube grammar?
The executive answers with an affirmative huh?
"If engineers can finding something to do to support the sales campaign in 2017, they can keep their jobs", says the Vice Chief Minion of CAD Operations (VCMCO).
"However, we have this memo voted upon from the board and the copy machine
has issued it to everyone. It will take until 2018 before the board runs out of
copy machine toner and thus reversing this memo, in question."
The wow guy pipes in with strong tones, "The reduction
in force engineers will remove the copy machines and its toner before the first
of June if lay-offs occur."
The VCMCO provides
Boeing leadership jargon to the WAU shop steward,...
"It is "our" opinion that the fact finding
committee after exhaustive research has come to an imperative conclusion, it is
its opinion which demands a reduction in force. The research also
concludes those who have an anonymous union work card are not needed until
further notice for which the copy machine will advise the WAU of any changes,
is that clear?" The shop steward succinctly says, "wow"!
The VCMCO then retorts, "Further-more, the board has
advised a determination for all engineers that sales numbers are low and will
advise at which time if a sale is made with any of the the single aisle, duo aisle or
military segments for which a reconsideration becomes eminent for any
announcement concerning the work force!"
The shop steward replies, "Huh".
Then we are in agreement with our huh's, say the VCMCO?
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