Flying The "E" xcitement Ticket ANA 787-9 Dress Rehersal Farnborough 2016

Here is the ANA Farnborough dress rehearsal for the 787-9 flying show.

Boeing's 777X Production Philosophy, Build It Here Then There

By the year 2020 Boeing will build the 777X there after it builds in 40-24. The production bay 40-24 was Boeing's surge line for the 787 while it brought the 787 up to production speed while Charleston found its own 787 production chops. Boeing is thinking way ahead of the curve when sinking billions into a project. Boeing's smart people work everyday while overcoming seemly insurmountable obstacles.

One such obstacle is building the 777X with a non-traditional aviation production mode, because they are making it better for everyone concerned. The workers will have a reduction in force on the production floor while carpel tunnel surgeries will drop in numbers from the same group of people as its robotics insert its 60,000 fasteners with a stitching pattern, and while automatically providing precision for every single one of those 60,000 fasteners.

This requires a different production scheme from the traditional construction schemes from the 777-300 ER production era. The former era closely followed the Jig method of assembly, mating the production air-frame through fitting it to a Jig assembly with hundreds of worker drilling and filling in fasteners. Now the assembly process must accommodate a level of automation absorbing supplier inventory capable of assimilating a new automated process. This takes enormous time and a lot of trial and error learning within the production environment.

Remember those smart people mentioned earlier, well they need a place in which to overcome something new and something not tried before concerning the 777 family of aircraft. The 777X is immense and can't be flipped around like a garment on a sewing machine nor can robots keep changing an anchored position while using robotic automation within a continuos production flow. Robotics should follow the car manufacturer model. The work piece flows to the robotic application. How do you build the 777-300ER and the 777X in the same building space?

The 40-24 surge line will be open for 777X production at a pace where the smart people can perfect the assembly of the 777X in a workman like manner without interruption coming from the next 777-300ER pushing through and displacing the smart peoples work station. They will have space and time while installing not just equipment but evolving techniques matching the equipment, computers, and robots in a surge effort for making ready a production flow and skill set for the big floor.

Everett, WA bay 40-24, Boeing 787-9 in process.

Boeing Building 40-24 with one more 787-9 chambered in the barrel. Photo featured on All Things 787

The first 24 or so 777X will be built "on schedule" before 2020. The "schedule" is when the smart people gets it perfect before 2020. A drop the wrench moment is arriving in building 40-24 soon. The problem confronting the production team is meshing a new method into a working process using 24 777X's as a works in progress assault on the 777X before the year 2020 arrives. Bottom line, the Boeing people will have this covered only with another great effort. The reporting going forward will discuss the minutia road blocks along the way. Headlines will cover when a wrench is drop and the building goes silent for a minute. However the 777X is in the forming/storming stage before it moves forward to the full performing stage found in the main 777X production slot while the remaining 777-300's are to be built.

This is how it will be done today. I will be interested to see how they merge two different building styles with robotics and moving assembly lines for the 777X and the 777-300 for the last years of the 777-300-ER's production cycle.

Watch video for the moving assembly  line of a 777-300ER aircraft. 

 

Boeing Dithers In The Middle

My assertion is not whether Boeing goes forward with 757 replacement? Research and statistics shows Boeing biffed it when it closed off the 757 without having an answer. Hence the long and perilous journey with the 787 program. The 787 is no longer the center for development stage, but has matured forward ushering the production and marketing phase of its future legacy.

The MoM, aka: Middle of the Market for range, size and aisles has arrived. Long ago like last January, Winging It proposed a seven across dual aisle 15 foot wide body for the MoM. Featuring carbon fiber wings and re-engined (up for bid maker) engines for rigorous and efficient duty. A Winging IT diagram was even offered for visual effect. It’s also has been noted the seat range will become a 200-270 seat cab. The single aisle is out, if it goes for 270 capacity. It will not need a cattle shoot down the middle it will need a fork in the path to the Jet way with dual aisle control for all cattle in economy.

Read this then you decide:

Boeing's Red Headed "Step Child", The 757 Replacement

The Winging IT case was made at seven across, dual aisle with about 210+ seats going forward. Boeing will cut its seat count down to 250, because it’s a round number and a MoM appropriately configured could do 250 without having passenger contortion confronting its product. Any customer optioning of going gonzo on the seat count should receive a void for any Boeing guarantees for its aircraft where the customer airline must stay within original engineering constraints for space and comfort. If Boeing says it’s guaranteed to travel up to 250 passengers then so be it!

In conclusion, so much time has been dedicated on this Boeing market gap. I assume Boeing has spent more time and money on this concern. The lesson I have taken from the recent news articles is that Boeing's high priority things-to-do list now has a new member and its the 757 replacement. 

Boeing Once Again Talks about "MOM"

The much discussed 757 replacement and A321 killer is called MOM or Middle Of The Market aircraft. "Bloomberg" has stolen another interview from Boeing reporting MOM is still on the table!

Boeing Sees Sales Bounty for Mid-Size Jet Still on Drawing Board

Key Quotes:

·      “Boeing estimates that sales could reach between 4,000 and 5,000 middle-of-market jetliners as airlines find new routes for the planes.”

·      “said Mike Delaney, general manager of airplane development. He used the term “when,” not “if,”

·      "We are not there yet,” Delaney told reporters in a briefing last month ahead of the Farnborough International Airshow. “But in the last six months Mike’s team has closed the gap pretty good.”

·      "The proposed airplane would be built at a tempo that falls somewhere between that of the 737, which roll out of Boeing’s Seattle-area factory at a pace of two a day, and the 787’s monthly output of 12 jets, Tinseth said."

·      "The planemaker is in discussions with the three largest engine-makers for a new turbine to power the aircraft as it seeks performance gains of at least 20 percent compared with the 757 and 767 jetliners."

2nd Quarter 2016 787 Production Numbers Look :)

Boeing delivered four 787's today making 38 787 delivered during second quarter 2016. It now has delivered 68 of the 787 by end of second quarter 2016. The production pacing has been solid with greater than twelve units delivered a month for the last 90 days averaging 12.67 units a month and beating guidance of 12 units a month delivered.

Winging It Charts for your information

Fig. 1

Winging It Chart show 90 day average exceeding Boeing Guidance during second Quarter 2016.

Fig.2

The YOY progress establishes 431, 787 delivered by the end of 2nd Quarter 2016

Fig.3 

By Model Production Progress 2nd Quarter 2016

Fig.4

In Process or delivered summary by Model

Fig.5

The 787 Delivery-Order Gap

Recently, it’s been noted that both Airbus and Boeing have dwindling wide body sales in the recent months. Even though on the eve of Farnborough Air Show during July, this could all change or be confirmed as a reality. So in an educational form Winging It has made a bar graph trending towards the exhaustion for the 787 backlog during the next five years. The explanation is below: 

Notice no forecasting line is included, only 2015 and 2016 YTD numbers. It also assumes projected production for each year going into the future at twelve 787 a month, where it may go to fourteen units a month if Boeing can sell more 787 during the next two years.

The Gold standard for the 787 is its backlog in total, where the blue is the number delivered actually in year one and during year two is represented as a YTD total. The grey colored bar is the Gap or shrinking backlog during the five year period. 

Year two is 2016 where only sixteen 787 are ordered and a projected 138 will be delivered after which 2016 is over, one hundred and forty-four 787's will be delivered each year per Boeing guidance. Partial year number during 2016 show sixty-two 787 delivered. 

Since no orders can be estimated going forward through the fifth year (6), Boeing has five years to maintain its backlog. Farnborough will add some 787 orders in 2016 (see bar graph 2), helping rise the orange bar and shrink the Grey for this year. The goal is to minimize the grey impact as found in 2015 or noted as year (1). Boeing can get into year (7) or 2021 with a backlog with no orders until 2021. 

The year 2016 currently is showing few orders to date indicating a slow wide body order year at the halfway point. There are about 10 747 not yet reported and could be added to the show. The 767 freight business is gaining altitude and the 777 remains a mystery at this time. I would expect the 787 will jump up another 30 units at Farnborough making the orange grow and the Grey bar shrinks. The Year 2020 will exhaust the Boeing 787 backlog if another is not taken, but that is not conceivable at all. Boeing will sell the 787 at a slower pace for the next 12 months. 

Once the backlog shrinks with a five year backlog number (BL-12 units a month) it will cause openings for orders during the early part of 2017 as the 787 Backlog falls below five hundred units on order, even if only no orders are booked between now and March 2017. The opportunity factor and airlines five year plans will then merge into orders during the early part of 2017. Any rising fuel prices will proportionally increase wide body demand. Boeing can and will maintain a five year backlog for the 787.

Not Counting The Iran Effect The 737 Orders Are Strong (Update)

Boeing is six months through the order year. Critical is the programs viability for producing both the 737 NG and the 737 Max. An optimal transition pace from the NG to the Max is critical. In essence, Boeing would like a full NG order book through 2020 after which the Max becomes the predominant production floor model in Renton, WA. The Boeing book as of May 2016 has about 1,215 unfilled 737 NG for all types. A sufficient backlog number for keeping the production at current levels. 

Iran Effect via "All Things 787" Link:

“A little more detail came out regarding the proposed commercial aircraft deal between Boeing and Iran.  There are no 787s in the deal but here is the breakout:”

Direct purchase:
4 x 747-8I
15 x 777-9
15 x 777-300ER
6 x 737 NG
40 x 737MAX

Lease:
29 x 737 NG

During 2016, a problem for Boeing would be maintaining an order flow for both the NG and the MAX. So far so good, as it has booked orders in an almost 50/50 split for both the NG and the Max (see tables below). The NG has about 46% of the orders and the Max about 54% of booked 737.

Total NG's ordered Year-To-Date:

Snagged from Boeing Data

Total Max ordered Year-To-Date:

Per Boeing

The total un-adjusted book count is for 265 single aisle aircraft accumulated since January 1, 2016 until June 20, 2016. Production units per month does not equate with orders received and the backlog continues to grow, thus a smooth production output will be achieved when Boeing increases to fifty-two units a month in the near future.

Queen of The Skies Lives Another Day

About 10 747-8F's are on the line for Russian Freight counting $4 Billion at list prices. Volga-Dnepr Group, a subset of AirBridgeCargo, it will complete a contractual offering or proposal with Boeing and will be probably announced at Farnborough during the shows date later this summer. The link for this announcement can be found: 

Boeing said near US$4b deal with Russian firm to save 747

 

The shows date window for announcements could reveal more information during the July 11-16 extravaganza. However, this order revealed this week is unofficial until formal announcements are made, but the deal is real and almost done as reported.

Iran and Boeing Order up 100 Aircraft

The point of this blog is not so much in the order placement, but by in the Boeing types in play. The view on Airbus/Iran order is a strong indicator of what Iran has ordered with Boeing's 100 aircraft order. The devil is always in the details:

Airbus/Iran Order for 118:

Covered in the historic Airbus accord are: 

21 A320ceo  

24 A320neo, 

27 A330ceo, 

18 A330-900neo, 

16 A350-1000s 

12 A380s. 

Total 118 

Now the Boeing probable (predicted) starting order lineup:

20 - 737-800 NG

25 - 737-800 Max

25 -787's 800/900 are fifty-fifty split.

25 - 777's classics and 777X

  5 - 767

Total 100

The prediction is based on Iran's need for immediate replacements and the 767 while meeting that objective as it goes to the head of the delivery line. Iranian pilots are capable handling the both the NG's and the 767 with minimal additional training.

The Max will be a works in progress for the next five years and then Iran will be ready for its emergence as its market absorbs the 737 NG's.

The 787-800 can jump to the head of the line sooner in production than the 787-900's which have a long wait. This allows Iran immediate fleet renewal and favorable pricing. Time and resources from Boeing are made available to Iran from a 787-800 selection. The order book will be a Boeing variety with each having significance for its future fleet growth and comparable with Airbus equipment ordered.

Follow On To Motley Fools 787-10 Question

Motley fool has taken a questioned approach to the viability for the 787-10 program. After selling only 153 of its type during its first offering, Boeing has managed a niche allotment of orders having few follow on orders in the last few years. The well of orders seemed to dry up very fast. The next hope for the 787-10 will come from the "show me phase" of delivery.

An argument can be made via Motley Fools analysis, there are replacement slots for future 787-10 sales coming from the Boeing 777-200 aging fleet. The 787-10 is just as capable as the 777-200 only with a reduced fuel consumption. Rising fuel prices will save the 787-10 future program. Future orders can surprise program managers as oil prices go northward it will press the Boeing order book another 150 of its type ordered during the next decade.

The answer for the 787-10 program comes from several intrinsic conditions. One being the 787 achieves the industry standard for aircraft over the Airbus offering. The 787-10 will gain greater acceptance from this evolving condition as more 787 flood the market place.

The second condition illustrates how effective the 787-10 can be in higher density markets such found in Asia. The 787-10 can haul more passenger for less within a five thousand mile circle of any airport. Customer application of the aircraft will show the market how to make a profit from its place in the industry.

Having a third pillar supports the whole notion for the 787-10. The 777X program compliments the 787-10 as the market leaves the 777-200 behind and while the 787-10 will easily complete the mission already established by the 777 family and it will be a more advanced aircraft as a family member of the 787's already in service. 

That becomes the intrinsic value and inherent attribute for the 787 family. A familiar movie quote of "you complete me", becomes the 787-10 new theme of having value for any airline building its fleet around the Boeing family of aircraft. Having a mixed fleet approach of two manufacturers becomes a fools errand in the market. Having a family plan for any airline is a stronger position towards profitability for that airline's marketing  objectives.

Airlines who rearrange its own inventory towards a mono sourced inventory of aircraft reach a higher efficiency state greater than manipulating the manufacturer through its leverage of manufacturing duality of a purchase. Having faith in your own plan while not serving two manufacturing masters is the optimal condition for airline efficiency. The 787 is all about its efficiency.