Dubai November 8-12 Boeing Senses The Positive

The upcoming Dubai airshow is rapidly becoming the end of year match for what airplane framers crave. Most of all, the loose end orders for Boeing, may come together at the meet. There are several 787 orders in play coming from the East and South East from Dubai's position on the globe. Qantas and China could announce seizable 787 orders. The 777X has been order quiet for some time as the big players have already spoken on the 777X program since the 2013 Dubai Air Show. So what is Boeing excited about? That is the tease and the beauty of this airshow. It's the battle field for commercial airplane. It is also a place to show off Apache helicopters and the P-8, Boeing's super duper snooper Navy Air Force tool. I am for the order book war and how it plays because Boeing has a grin going for the show. Don't forget Single Aisle orders could come to the Dubai dance.

The World Changes With One 787 At A Time

Boeing's indomitable spirit marks the business case with JetStar. The announced plan was for Jetstar to take on 11 787 in behalf of the Qantas booking adjustments when they made a Business decision folding its initial 787 order book to a hold ’em position. Is anybody lost at this point? I am but can explain another take on JetStar's windfall for eleven 787 flying in its fleet. They had (past tense) A330 routing its network back in 2013. Then came the order book swap with parent Qantas, who had reached beyond a state of nirvana when ordering back in the day (2005) for over a hundred 787. Two Bloody Mary's later, Jetstar gets sloughed some 787. Qantas goes deep into the walk-in financial freezer. Now Qantas has cleaned-up its business case and are ready to bail out its 787-9's in the Boeing holding tank.  

Jetstar ends A330 operations, moves to all-787 long-haul fleet

Today is another 17,520 hours later than 2013 when Jetstar's first 787-8 loaded was loaded with 334 seats and was delivered. It is also a time when the first "free" (for Qantas) A330 is moved to the parent operation, Qantas. Those same models may also be the first casualties when infusing its first bunch of 787-9's into the mold. Say goodbye to A330 from the Qantas operations deck in five years. 

In summary of a clouded explanation for investors, Qantas has caught up with its business pivot when it realized they were in deep Bull Kah-Kah. Many, many meetings later, Jetstar is now ready to play full efficiency dollars with its eleven 787. Qantas is ready to buy full efficiency 787-9's for its stable of aircraft. The head scratching resulted in the lice being evicted. Questions, anyone?

Next KC-46 Milestone, Money

On October 1st. The military will know if budget consideration are on track for the KC-46 program.

Defense News has offered this September 26, 2015 an observation: "Adding to Boeing’s troubles, service officials warned this month that the Air Force may be forced to break the KC-46 contract if the Pentagon is slapped with a yearlong continuing resolution (CR) at the beginning of the fiscal year. If Congress can not come to a budget agreement by Oct. 1, the Pentagon may be forced to operate under a long-term CR, a stop-gap spending measure that temporarily funds the government at prior year levels."

By the way the KC-46 passed its initial fully loaded system flight test yesterday. This paves the way for testing each system loaded on the KC-46 during the next steps testing progressions, regardless of having a money milestone conquered while the military seeks etching money from congress. 



The process continues, however, with a lower build rate if Congress does not pull its collective head out of the congressional well. There are several military projects hanging on a budget vote of importance featured in Winging It. KC-46, F-35, and the Navy's DDG1000 program. Money not in place for the programs is the game changer. 

CR Waivers... Waiver???? KC-46/F-35

The Air Force is slipping another trick past its vaunted programs. They may seek Continuing Resolution Waivers from the US Congress for two critical programs currently in the breach of development. The KC-46 is going for its first test flight this weekend and the F-35 is deploying its Model A to the Military inventory and several other nations while in the midst of some budget controversy.

Air Force Could Request Continuing Resolution Waivers for Top Programs

NDIA Link

This is great news for the programs, if followed up, and successfully completed. It's my kind of big news on the defense front. However, carving out budget for its programs is a "Hail Mary" throw at the goal post. It also means the Air Force would be going to the mat for the two different frames and pushing the programs forward.

Otherwise, it will be stagnation for programs so corrosive as salt on iron.

What If China Was A Launch Customer For MOM

The proverbial Middle of The Market (MOM) aircraft could be China swinging for the fences. Remember when the 757 was vogue now it's still vogue. China came to Boeing this week and got me thinking, why? Somebody must have something up its sleeve. 

The 757 segment is the last untapped Boeing resource for the decade. China has a need for people movers throughout its continent and its surrounding region. What better of a way of suppressing the demand, with becoming the launch customer of an all new clean sheet MOM. It would be a 200-270 seat oval shaped wonder-kin of Boeing. It would establish a 5,000 mile parameter for China. Seven across dual aisle seating, and as airport compliant as the 737 MAX. 

Boeing -Seeking Alpha Graphic

Keep it secret? You Betcha, you'd better keep it secret. Did China order it? No they didn't, but the caveat may have been in the 300 plane order China made with Boeing.  How about a little clause of being the launch customer when Boeing announces the new flying Oval with 777 like wings, 787 like avionics and engines and Max like Aluminum dynamics (Advanced technology wings and laminar flow characteristics installed).

Call it, ??? I'm working on the moniker. Currently it’s down to:

• Continental Drift
• The MOMinator
• NapLiner

I never worked in advertising and it shows.

Seeking Alpha Comment About The MOM

The China 300 Is What's For Dinner

Three hundred aircraft have been agreed upon in Seattle. It's not the 300 sounding the deal but the location that underscores the deal. China came to Seattle with its Nation's President marking the importance for China rather than Boeing going to China asking for some preferred customer status. This is possibly more important than the order coming from China.

Comac, a Chinese production attempt, is not ready for China's emergence into the aviation market. It needs Boeing as much as Boeing needs China. But China came to Boeing signing away what it wants and needs from Boeing. That is the most important action taken this year for both partners. The three hundred undefined orders would suggest the bulk as a single aisle MAX or NG's. However it also paves the way for follow-on 787 orders not yet announced. The devil is always in the details.

The "General Deal": #300 is Recommended: <<Click left for best results

Perhaps in giving what China wants, Boeing has already moved past what China wants. A clean way to build Single Aisle NG Aircraft, where Boeing can amp up Max production in Renton Washington. It can now can sell more Max down the road in five years. China can now pass a road block when using Boeing's lifetime achievement expertise for building single aisle, which Comac lacks. It's a win-win for both giants. There should be some 787 orders in there for Chinese sweetening. The undefined nature of the Chinese order suggest much more in the paper work than just 300 airplanes ordered and Boeing manufacturing in China using Chinese staffing requirements.

Boeing has “Maxed” its plant facility in Washington, and Boeing pivots toward the orient slicing off the Airbus hoards wanting more and more from the orient. Make no mistake in thinking Boeing will master the Orient with this move. It has bought significant time, and a placeholder in the largest market coming into the world. China will not stop Comac nor its aspirations as an aircraft player. Boeing knows this all too well. It has its own plans founded in the near future and is depending on having a technological edge in the aviation for many years to come. China is expecting to bridge its technological aviation gap it has surveyed with Boeing over the next ten years. This deal has limits for each and its in the paper-work. 

However, it serves both well during its relevant positions found in the current market place. Both will win on this deal otherwise China wouldn't have come to Seattle.

F-35 Reveal Has Started

US officials: F-35 will outmatch any aircraft in development

Flight Global has started the ball rolling for the F-35 news this month. September 2015 is both a watershed moment for the Boeing KC-46 and the Lockheed F-35. Please link up above for Flight Globals report.

“It’s the finest fighter airplane in the world and nothing compares to it,” Bogdan says. “I’d put this airplane up against any airplane in the world today, tomorrow and for the next 20 or 30 years and we’ll come out ahead.”

Bogdan was responding to a question about whether the F-35 could hold its own against the latest Russian jets, particularly the T-50 that will reportedly enter service in 2016 in a limited capacity."

Boeing's China Visit Is Not A Tea Party

China is visiting Boeing this week. It is not a political junket for China's president, Xi Jinping. He is not interested in Seattle's importation of restaurants in the downtown Seattle area. Xi is looking at what an auto pen will do to Boeing's order book. A Translator from China relates to Xi Jinping, "If you push this button it will sign your name here, here, and here. Viola, China now owns a good chunk of Boeing's production.

The Boeing walk through- meet and greet is underway. The glad handing promenade is a nonstop tour of the American industrial and technological engine, China can't wait for current conditions to turn up for its own aviation juggernaut to catch up. They need aircraft now. Well at least in the next five years.

This week’s Boeing tour is not exploratory, it's more of a validation on the production might Boeing has, and it is giving China more assurance, and yes Boeing can do the Job with China's top leader in the buildings. The "shop stop" signals a deal will be done this year. It will be a single aisle barrage splinting up China's domestic expansion. It will also be a wide body "all-in" stance, since it brings China to the world. Several airlines like China Southern have already committed to Boeing through its testing fleet of 787's, using the 787 in long range market, and it agrees that it is a winner and the foundation for world travel.

The last questions remain for Boeing, "do you want it super-sized with 787-10's or will the Max -8's be your order today?"

China has a huge thirst at this time. It should be a super-sized orders for its national carriers. A China order should be an all-in Max line, complemented by its 787 family of aircraft. If only Winging It had an "Eager Meter" strapped to Xi Jinping's wrist, I could tell you an accurate guess on China's Boeing Aspirations. This is not a tea party, but more of a fortune cookie.

Even Though Five Delivered 787 In September, Boeing makes Guidance

Boeing has delivered by the 21st of September 2015, thirty-one 787 during its third quarter. It has met delivery guidance for the 787 type once again as stated by averaging 10.33 a month during the whole of the third quarter with another nine days remaining in September. Boeing is achieving consecutive quarters meeting guidance since the first of the year.

Even though only five have so far been delivered, in the month of September 2015, it remains solid that it will continue with a few more 787 deliveries before quarter's end, which indicates Boeing continues a surplus in production numbers above its own original guidance. Expectations should bring in about thirty-four 787 during the third quarter as it could add three more 787 during September. It would bring Boeing's monthly delivery on pace, when considering current production energy on the floor and what is in the Boeing supply chain. The EX/IM banking issue in the US is affecting delivery confidence as some customers have Boeing aircraft ready for delivery, but no banking resources available from the EX/IM quandary coming from the US Congress.

Postoperative Debriefing

Everything went well as in text book well. Now it's back to limited scope work out on WI. The veritable progress of aviation’s renaissance is back on track. Since I don't follow news during in shop maintenance, it's a protocol thing, I will spend 24 more hours getting back in the saddle again. Therefore, I will relate to what's going on with Boeing. A ton of things to be exact. I am expecting another order breakthrough announcement in the next 60 days. The Dubai meetings have a pre announced slow sales activity benchmark. However, something in the month of November is percolating up even though it may be a non-Dubai activity announcement. The year's total for the 787 orders will be respectable and interesting I am stilling leaning towards a 100 787 order year by December 31, 2015.

787 production goals are going to exceed guidance. Boeing is coming in for a 2015 big finish. I am anxious on my predictions and how it plays out. Acting as a de facto Boeing executive, my laser pointer says Boeing is going to continue its positive march in forward for market share in spite of the Airbus single aisle flurry it just put together with its key single aisle customers.