The CFM Leap 1B was Underated Last Month. Now Its Gaining Height!

The CFM Leap 1-B had a 5% short fall last month coming off its bench testing. Now that it is under wing several key players in its development have come forward and said those numbers misrepresented what was really happening to the CFM Leap 1B. Smiles have returned to the Boeing execs faces in lock step. It is a key indicator of a hasty news report about the CFM engine. The 68" front opening of the MAX directed engine has achieved early bench marks while under wing on the 747-400 test bed. No one has said exactly what has happened to that 5% low ball short fall number, but it appears the first tune up during its flying testing has moved the efficiency needle back closer into the 14% efficiency realm it has promised its Max customers. Quiet backslapping is a great indicator of corporate relief.

The MAX is on track again with CFM and Boeing. The testing and tweaking process has begun. Innovation is once again a hold card, once all normal progressions are completed. The CFM at 68 inches has achieved theoretical performance it had claimed when compared with the Airbus CFM Leap 1-A 79" diameter. The 1B will be lighter than the 1A. It has an Aerodynamic sweet spot compensating for the Airbus advantage of its larger 78" for the A-320 family.

The rule of thumb is a bigger diameter jet engine produces better efficiency than one with a lessor diameter. In Boeing's case they had to find a better preforming CFM Leap 1B than the Airbus Leap IA configuration. Boeing reached back in its bag of tricks for some aviation Trickeration for the 12" smaller diameter engine using wing placement adjustment and center of gravity considerations. Drag elimination on the engine nacelle with new aero design points mitigating any so called engine drag and from a lighter over-all single aisle structure than Airbus with its engine weight. Even though CFM shares its technologies with Airbus, Boeing seeks a greater performance efficiency out of a smaller engine size.

The gauntlet was laid down for CFM, where Boeing asked for more Carbon Fiber or plastic components with its engine needing a greater heat dissipating properties under its nacelle than the prior CFM's. The trend line for the Leap 1B indicates more innovation on the engine and aircraft complying with the MAX design points for having a low engine clearance on the ground. Secondly, the engine, frame fit, and performance must work more within the MAX design, as a sum of all its contributing parts equals optimal performance for Boeing and CFM. The Leap 1A with Airbus may have a role of all CFM efficiency are hung on the wing, and are found just within the engine. The Leap 1-B is a solid two team project integrating the MAX with The Leap as a Joint solution in performance.

Considering the chart above it appears the 737 NG has a 6% head start before the MAX had announced its inception for development. Now it will lead by 5% at the end of the day. The caveat is seats available is greater for the MAX. This does not include the A-321 frame which is a separate class of Single Aisle. The MAX 737-9 is also not part of this discussion as shown by the chart above.

The testing that is occurring is an epic change to the paradigm for single aisle aircraft engine building. The Boeing smiles this week indicate a self-assured positive outcome. Getting the CFM off the bench and flying was a great idea, and long over-due from a press point of view. Actual final efficiency numbers are usually understated as an error towards being conservative for all concerned until it goes on the MAX itself.

Call Me Crazy, Call Me Irish, Don't ever Call Me Crazy Irish

Michael O'Leary Dips into Darby O'Gill's Pot O' Gold IBT Photo Credit (Getty)

To the tune of: "Ryanair has reported an end-of-year net profit of €867m (£613m, $944m) after carrying 90.6 million passengers in the 12 months to March."

A steady delivery cycle of 183 737 NG's are heading his way since it began last year in 2014. Then comes the 737 Max 200 in 2017, or is it 200 Max 737's. I lost my own mind in his quest for Darby O' Gill's Pot O' Gold . 2023 is the year the deed is done.

Why am I am clicking my heals? Because IBT says its so, that's why!

66% profit increase, yowser!

Rumor has it Michael has invented a better way to pack sardines into a can too! He is unstoppable with his ideas relating to product packaging.

O'Leary for Airline President! Oh, excuse me he is already one to boot. The Max should deliver on March 17th  on any year past 2017. I have plans for that day every year, until the cows come home, and doesn't include staying home. It may include a trip to Ireland for cabbage and corn beef until the c... well you know the tag line. Michael O'Leary can you spare me two airline tickets from Boise, Idaho. Call me crazy, but I was always told... to politely ask the question anyways, so I asked, so sue me. I asked my wife a question once, and it changed my life permanently. I am not Irish, just a hung over Scotsman at the belt line, who likes corn beef and cabbage with a little Irish music. 

Crores Are eating away Air India's Lunch

The long awaited and long deployed 787 has not turned Air India away from loss even though the fuel metric has turned most operations in a positive fuel cost direction on its international routes. The 787 has lived up to its promise for Air India, making gains in the fuel in its cost category for each international flight. The disturbing Air India financial news remains with the operators end of mismanagement. The 787 delivered, but the company that flies it cannot get its arms around its own profitability scheme.

The  above chart suggests over $90 million a month is lost while operating and applying its variable costs. A chief indicator of that loss is from not receiving enough revenue stream gained from appropriate ticket prices and collecting  greater loss from its operational inefficiencies. Air India  picks up too much of the the work and supply tab every time one of its airplane flies. Anybody for fixed Costs?

The numbers above come from  Hindustan Times. Trade values for currency are from today's calculation converting Crore to US dollars.

Keeping Up: Airbus has 3 WB's Delivered, Boeing has 279 WB's Delivered

Airbus has delivered 3, A350-900 since December 22, 2015. All to Qatar. Boeing has hit full stride with 279-787's, since its first delivery in late September 2011. Boeing spun out three 787 in its first three months. Airbus has done the same feat in five months.  It has predicted 12 more in 2015. Comparing the two programs indicates a separate strategy. The Boeing 787 effort jumped over Airbus, and has left the Euro company a no rush approach. Boeing rushed its charge forward regardless the obstacles it encountered for its more complex made aircraft.

Had Boeing not had the battery issue, it would have probably gained more sales in the early production years. However, things being what they where, Boeing gave up some precious ground over Airbus during 2012-2013. Risk averting airlines, may have opted for the Airbus during the bad days Boeing had encountered. All things considered, the market is settling into an orderly two camp market for wide bodies. Each having its own talking points for salesmanship.

The Airbus approach is going very carefully forward, and celebrating its three deliveries in five months without the press hounding them over any internal calamities from program mishaps. As it was experienced in  Boeing's fast start. Airbus is simply laying low in the weeds and relishing its second place position without all the Boeing "hub-bub"  concerning its: forming, storming and norming and performing of the 787.

1. "The Forming – Storming – Norming – Performing model of group development was first proposed by Bruce Tuckman in 1965, who maintained that these phases are all necessary and inevitable in order for the team to grow, to face up to challenges, to tackle problems, to find solutions, to plan work, and to deliver results."

Wiki reference:

Tuckman's stages of group development

These are factors of team building. Airbus has done its storming in privacy with no unreasonable goal setting the pace. It quietly keeps announcing certainties long after that "certainty" is achieved within the program. Where it is long past tense rather than ,Boeing's approach of announcing a "certainty", before all problems are worked out. Hence Boeing ran the risk of a program mishap during the early history of the aircraft.

It is not to say Airbus did not have its share of mishaps within the program. However, it is to say being second, allowed them the position for the A-350 of laying low in the weeds, of never having publicity over those types mishaps. Airbus couched its airplane development, and not often reported any problems within the framework of A-350 lower tech development. Boeing came out naked into the press stirring up interest for its "All New 787", which superseded the Wright Brothers Historical effort back-in-the-day.  Boeing needed the limelight to launch its program for the 787 to succeed. It needed the press to quantum jump Airbus who was left sanding flat footed back in 2007.

The Boeing risk was shadowed by battery failure, adding shims, and drill holes and fastener making wing cracks. Airbus for sure had its shakedown period for its own million part aircraft assembly during  the early A-350 start-up. Except they were in second place, and mitigated its news under the developmental umbrella of press protection. Boeing marched out with its chest laid bare. Oops, there were some nasty scars exposed after if flew commercially during 2012. Boeing pressed into gaining separation from Airbus' slow slog to delivery.

The market has settled. The bean counting has started comparing both programs. Airbus claims its better than the 787. That is to be expected even if the A-350 is considered nothing more than a plastic kite. They will always say they are better, no matter the circumstance! It's their job that's what they do.

Boeing has passed the mishap curve in full display of the press ramblings. The aircraft is actually remarkable, imagine that! The added value 787 has secrets within its frame, and its not 5 inches wider which is Airbus' only difference maker over the 787. The all electric scheme has flown in almost four years, where in a few months it will celebrate its fourth years in service. Over 330-787 will be delivered by end of October 2015. The added value of the 787 is becoming realized through those same systems diagnostics. Maintenance cost are now hard numbers and very pleasing to Boeing's customers. A second wave of orders should reflect the pleasing performance of the 787, sans glitches. The brochure given the customers back in 2011 rings true finally.

The A-350 has only three in commercial aircraft flying at this time, and will soon have more. By the time the A-350 has delivered 15 of its type at years end, Boeing will have delivered about 120 during 2015 and totaling 348-787 for the over-all program delivered. (See Chart Below)

*2015 Delivery Projected for Year End

Winging It Chart adjusted for Year end production projections . 

Laying in the weeds during development for Airbus has paid off for its WB order book. Baring any major mishap in commercial service, the A-350-9 will be a steady program forward, which keeps Boeing hopping for years to come. At the end of 2016, Boeing will have an over 400 units delivered lead over A-350 delivered making a significant foot print in the WB  Market. Airbus is betting on additional passenger space and its follow-on optics for the passengers. Boeing has played both to the Airline customer and its passengers with top to bottom advancements. Airlines choose the seat configuration and numbers in passengers for the space available.
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Both makers have a comparable backlog of around 800 units. However, Boeing is at a 10-12 unit per month rate where Airbus has not achieved even a 1 a month rate since first delivery. Boeing may go under Airbus' Backlog by year's end, depending on any new orders taken in for the makers in the next six months.

This leads into the next topic, the customer reflexes towards having a quicker delivery date from the airplane maker's backlog availability. Boeing certainly has the high ground, since it has devoured backlog from its peak order book number of 1,104-787, and it could it go significantly under the 800 backlog units mark by year's end from a robust production program. Otherwise, the Paris Air Show could change the backlog metric with new order announcements, as Airbus uses this event for its own self-promotion. The Paris Airshow becomes a signal, whether Airbus has anything going on at-all for the year. Boeing may come in with a few 787 surprises (orders), as I am suspecting. The first three months Boeing showed a normal progression of orders each month.. The pace of announcement has lessened, as customers may be waiting for this year's next event for its big bang, and attention generation during the Paris Airshow event. It looks as if both manufacturers will hover around 800 WB's to be delivered from its backlog by end of 2015. I would not be surprised if Boeing's Backlog goes back up to, and over 850 787's after the Paris Announcements.

Reference Credit: All Things 787

The Importance Of Being Common

Airlines tend to buy aircraft in a growth patterns staying with a manufacturer, whether or not the next type of up-line model is not better than the competitions. In-essence, the commonality question becomes more import for fleet expansion or replacement than if buying 787-9 or an A-350-900 when you have a fleet of single aisle already supplied with trained ground personal, parts, and few pilots capable of stepping up to a different dual aisle model. The 1% -2% difference between wide bodies in competition doesn't play into the over-all cost of having a mixed fleet of both Airbus and Boeing Aircraft.

PAL is pondering buying the A-350. It also runs in numbers the A-320. It has retired its 747 fleet and needs long legs. What PAL has to consider, is whether the A-320 meets its future needs as compared with the Boeing MAX single aisle, before it orders the A-350 duo-aisle wide body. Boeing would like to flip the PAL fleet Boeing's way. It has to sell them, the MAX, in the future with an overwhelming argument before PAL could even consider the 787 wide body. It just easier for PAL to order the A-350 regardless of a line by line comparison on the 787 vs the A-350.

Boeing must convince PAL why the 737 Max is a sea change event for other airlines in the region, before the wide body sale can be completed. Here are Boeing's Talking point to that end.

• The 737 Max is a better fit for PAL.
• The 737 training expense for PAL maybe mitigated through aircraft price offerings and sweeteners.
• The timing for PAL/Boeing delivery could be made more appropriate for PAL's financing resources.
• The Boeing Advantage of dual aisle performance could be made relevant with Boeing's fleet change assistance.
• Competition is going to be other airlines which are flying Boeing in the region.
• The competition with wide bodies, world-wide, is the 787, the A-350 maybe close but no cigar.

Boeing has to work very hard for the wide-body sales of the 787 as PAL ponders Airbus and its commonality with the A-320. The Max discussion must be part of the deal in order it to work for PAL.

One Thing Is Known, China Doesn't Pay Attention To Paris Airshows

Ruili Airlines has reported it has signed off on 6.1 billion deal with Boeing for 60 Max 737's. The largest order booked this year for the single aisle aircraft with Boeing. Paris aside, China and Boeing are pressing the "book" as it comes forward per customer requests. In this case Ruili is too busy building its airline to worry about style points at Paris. No matter what happens during the Paris pomp and Airbus, the end of the year remains on December 31, and Boeing will post its numbers just the same.

Airshows are just for showing-off. Ruili is about moving forward quickly.

Financial Buzz:

"Ruili Airlines is a young airlines company in China that is already runs operations using five Boeing 737 aircraft. The other 60 are expected to be" completely delivered by 2025.

  The Max 737 has gained steam without the Paris affect playing on the "Book". This indicates more is in play for Paris then is currently known beforehand. It maybe a 787 show after -all.

Wait For It Boeing, The World Will Grow Into The 787-8

The early heady days of the 787 program are over. Customers have filled the 787-9 order book often while flipping 787-8 orders into a 787-9 order. Boeing is also catering for a strong single Aisle market with the Max 737 family. Models go  from 737-700 to 787-900 Max types for its order book. The 757 is being retired in a orderly progression with no heir apparent on the horizon, even though Airbus proposes a A-321 NEO. This model condition creates the often quoted "Gap" in the order book line-up. Their is no "Gap" filler from the 737 family to the 787-8. It becomes quite a jump. The "stop-gap" measure is ordering the Max 200C or the 737-900. Boeing has stopped consideration on filling its gap filling quandary in the Boeing family of aircraft, or has it?.

Data is what everyone lacks, and Boeing has this in abundance. It projects for the need of 33,000 new aircraft added to order books from now until 2030. It knows how much it will cost when wedging in another new aircraft type competing for financial resources while having both the 787-10 and the 777X family projects moving forward. It also knows several other points, the Airbus A-350-800 is an epic order failure. The door swung open for Boeing in this case. There is no competitor with the 787-8. Airbus saw this too, hence the A-330NEO is a knee jerk 787-8 stopper done on the cheap. Loyal customers responded in lock step for a few hundred orders. They weren't going to buy Boeing aircraft in the first place.

However, Boeing just sits on its ultimate plan for its family of aircraft from single aisle to duo aisle offerings. The gap is waiting for the world to catch up rather than Boeing coming out with the single aisle or duo aisle new aircraft "gap filler". They already have the gap filler in its stable and its flying today, but the world growth has not caught up. This change will only be noted in the 787-8 order book in the next few years. Boeing needs to build a 787-8 metro class variant. Featuring a 220 seat limitation, shrinking the fuel load for only for up to five thousand miles of service travel, and making weight stripping adjustments within the 787-8 frame for shorter travel legs. The 787-8 would be a perfect candidate for optimizing the use of payload limits, and making engine adjustments for better fuel consumption when flying interurban routes such as a Seattle to New York routine.
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Gap pressure will come from airline growth from its customer base. Boeing must lower the purchase price of the 787 metro concept through a less is more campaign added to the 787-8 aircraft. The 737-900 has reached its route limit, and it falls just short of linking world growth and routes just beyond the 3500 mile boundary. A 787-8 Metro variant would fill in nicely with little sunk cost going into another airplane program. The Metro 787 is not made for globe trotting, but it's made for the world you and your friends live in.

A Must Read on the 777X

It's never about the blogger when an article come out like this has for the 777X engine plan. The GE 9X is an important milestone for both GE and Boeing. If what is read in this article is far better than 15% as the 787 proved itself with a 20% commercial efficiency rate from it customers this is going to be very big. I mean very big news. The 777X is already very big.

GE9X engine for the 777X will be 10% more efficient than any twin aisle engine

Good Bye A350-1000 there is a new sheriff coming to town and it will eat Airbus' lunch off the flight line..

NextBigFuture.com credits on graphics  Next Big Future Link Part II 777X

CFM's 800 Pound Gorilla Waits... Part Deux "Mumbo-Jumbo"

Counter points are for imaginary staff meetings. After taking-off with the CFM 1-B, Boeing flew its engine with startling metrics results. The bench test short fall only told CFM what it needed to know about its progeny in the first place. Tweaking the CFM 1-B destined for the 737 Max made gains towards eliminating the 5% short fall with big results.

First test of Boeing 737 Max engine looks good; future success critical

The first test looks good, that's it? However, below is the quip from Boeing testing, which suggest an improvement without disclosing what the metric has achieved towards eroding the 5% shortfall. Indicating maybe they aren't there yet, but techno adjustments has made the engine  closer to the advertised efficiency.

Puget Sound Business Journal quote:

"The smaller Boeing LEAP-IB engine, manufactured by CFM International, is lighter than the version of the engine the Airbus A320neo will use, but having less ground clearance that the A320neo has forced Boeing to use smaller-diameter versions of the fans that push air through the engine for thrust
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But Boeing engineers have insisted that 737 Max’s LEAP-IB, engineered with a slightly flattened cowling to fit under the 737 wing, will offer competitive performance.

“While we applaud Pratt & Whitney for their efforts, we are not seeing that the availability of (the geared turbofan) as a key discriminator,” said Keith Leverkuhn, vice president and program manager for the 737 Max, in a 2013 press briefing. “I think the LEAP engine, with the technologies they’re adding in, provides us with right technology and is truly matched to the airplane.” 

There it is, from the Mumbo-Jumbo (747 test bed) is on the Boeing table. They see what they need to do to make the CFM 1-B compliant to the goals for the aircraft. Is it bravery talking, or is it a feign just for Airbus Bravado? It's hard to tell in this case, especially when trying to sell more MAX to its prospective customers. It has become an insiders game for the clientele. No one yet, knows for sure what's up with that statement above, other than what it says. Be brave we have the battle won over the NEO.

However, I am trying to be Brave with all this Mumbo-Jumbo talk and I am in want to believe the initial outcome is really good. Once again I am guessing at a 3 1/2 % flying test bed improvement over the bench tests report already, and a future PIP is coming gaining the other 1 & 1/2% needed by CFM testing, component parts, and engine tweak department.

The World's Top Ten Airline Approaches

Going to some of these approaches,  and never considering as top a top ten, but here it is with "Private Fly" rendition of Top Ten approaches. Some are stark and beautiful and some are calming yet interesting. All are exciting approaches for the possibilities after landing.

To find out more about these airport's and its locations, please link to Private Fly provided above through the name of the publication.

Private Fly's list: Starting with the World's Number one approach in this year's Private Fly list.

1. QUEENSTOWN AIRPORT: new Zealand

You said:

"I've flown to many beautiful locations worldwide but NOTHING even comes close to comparing with the thrill and beauty that stuns you as you come in to land at Queenstown. The approach to Queenstown has everything. Looking over the endless Southern Alps, and the pristine turquoise rivers and lakes is just magical."

"Breathtaking approach with mountains and lakes surrounding you. It feels as if you're being transported straight to Middle Earth - because you are!"

"I had no words, just tears of awe and beauty when I landed here! It's completely enveloped by mother nature."

The judges said:

Bill Prince "A world class approach to a world class destination. The snatched panoramas as you descend into this hitherto barren-looking landscape makes you realise that pilots do get the best views."

Read more about Queenstown Airport

2. LAS VEGAS MCCARRAN AIRPORT

3. NICE CÔTE D’AZUR AIRPORT

4. BARRA AIRPORT

5. ST MAARTEN (PRINCESS JULIANA INTERNATIONAL) AIRPORT

6. SABA (JUANCHO E IRAUSQUIN) AIRPORT

7. BILLY BISHOP TORONTO CITY AIRPORT

8. GIBRALTAR AIRPORT

9. LONDON CITY AIRPORT

10. CAPE TOWN AIRPORT