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Monday, October 6, 2014

Insuring An On Time 777X Is Just As Critical As Making It

Boeing is readying its Everett plant and wide spread facilities for one mission. Get it right the first time on time. In Everett, its all hands on deck for the new 777X  wing assembly center. In St. Louis, Spirit is reading its part as the larger 777X assembly part manufacturer. This time around there will not be 787 like dithering in the airplane preparation. This "Moon Shot" is not a guesstimation 787-8 fly by long night after long night works. Its everything Boeing has done, and can be done on time and in place for the 777X. It's a drag race to the finish against the un-launched A350-1000, yet to built or tested. Folding wings is the least of Boeing's headaches on the table. They have been doing that since World War II. The main thing is getting facilities tooled and ready for the the Biggest Show on Earth, using some of PT Barnum's tactics to pull orders into the big tent.

Boeing is "sinking", literally sinking its assets into Everett turf. The "Plan" is to make something out of whole cloth fly like the best aircraft ever flown in the world, using the rabbits from Boeing's hat as the show stoppers. This is not just a "Fly-by-wire" act or a new LIon in the center ring. It is the big show we aspire to be in. The all plastic thing went with the mini skirt, however there are many fans of the mini skirted 787. This time it's, all about the contours in the wings, the tail and the airplane face, where Boeing will exploit its competitors. Then, on the runway, the wings will fold before the Jetway audience. Ohhh, and gasps as it makes its appearance are the sounds, when the 777X turns and hooks up with the jet way.

The customers remark, "those wings are plastic, they are nicer looking than the originals, where they just sagged a bit hanging on those large cans"!

The big show is on, as this show girl is wooing the airline audience.

Boeing will begin by regaining its reputation by starting on time. That is the big news, its sinking a big amount of resources into making the deadline. They already know how to make it fly farther, faster and cheaper with fuel. So pull all the lessons learned to the fore front and give it to the 777X. "People, we don't have to do it all over again. We just have to match the right technology to the right application." The 777X is going revolutionize the best of Boeing, by taking the 787 DNA and infuse it into the 777X. In return the 777X will give back to the 787 family of aircraft as it further takes on laminar flow and engine evolution.

Order Book Shenanigans

Its more confusing than square dancing in Virginia, USA. The Boeing order book took some hits and had some misses. Remember the main thing, is to keep the main thing, the main thing. I always wanted to call that at a square dance before we doce-do and away we go! Lesson from the Boeing order page for those with tri-focals and a magnifying glass in hand. "Here we go", Peter Pan Style.

1. 737's don't tell any stories about who, what, when, and where's just three to "Deep Pockets McGee".
2. 747, Played the song "Another one Bit The Dust" and "another one" Why, we don't really know why, but sometimes they just "Bite the Dust".



3. Hey, I thought the 767 bit the dust last year, I forgot FedEx. Oh well it fits them and that's all it matters for four more.

4.  Not FedEx's four but two big Gecas 777 to go. Order up!
5. 787 @ 15 Whaaaat! Unnamed, unidentified and unknown ordered?
6. Air Berlin has no chops at this time, Cancelled 15 787, Whaaaat! Book em Dano
7. Conspiracy theories are flooding the internet at this time on the 0 net change on the 787 book.
8. Almost Forgot, 20 each of the 737 were dropped as third quarters financials hit some fired execs.
9. 1000 ways to "Leave Your Lover", but don't hop on the Bus, Gus.


Orders through September 30, 2014
737747767777787Total
2014 Net Orders712-14261241000
Air Algerie1010
Air Canada6161
Alaska Airlines66
ALC21627
All Nippon Airways261440
Avolon5611
Belavia33
BOC Aviation80282
Business Jet / VIP Customer(s)5117
Cargolux Airlines11
CIT Leasing Corporation1010
COPA Airlines22
Eastern Air Lines1010
Emirates150150
Ethiopian Airlines2020
FedEx44
GECAS527
Intrepid Aviation66
Jackson Square Aviation33
Japan TransOcean Air66
MG Aviation Limited22
Nok Air1515
Okay Airways Company Limited1010
Qatar Airways5050
Ryanair55
SunExpress Airlines4040
Turkish Airlines1515
Turkmenistan Airlines33
Unidentified Customer(s)4511815484
United States Navy1616
2014 Gross Orders79214261481106
Changes-80-2-24-106
2014 Net Orders712-14261241000
737747767777787Total
Highlighted text in the chart above indicates updates for the current week.
Changes since last update:  24 new orders (Business Jet / VIP Customer(s) three 737s, FedEx four 767s, GECAS two 777s, and Unidentified Customer(s) 15 787s).  In the changes category reduced 737 net orders by 20, 747 net orders by two and 787 net orders by 15.

Saturday, October 4, 2014

"The Group"

"The group will add 100 Boeing 787 to its fleet at the end of 2015 and the first Airbus A350 in 2018. The aircraft will be equipped with completely new cabins."

Once again this statement pops out without explanation, "a hundred whole 787's at the end of 2015"? 

This quote comes from:


I keep pondering, what does Air France-KLM Group means by that quote, when they only ordered 25-787-9's with an option for 25 more, equaling fifty?

My Math is either in error, or the writers of the last two articles where this reference has appeared are "California Dreaming". It maybe due to a combined order with Airbus where the confusion lays. On the same day they (The Group) announced the Boeing purchase of 25/25, where they also announced an A-350 order for 25/35 starting in 2018(purchase/Options).

Maybe somebody, anybody, can help me here if the Group really did order 100 787 starting with delivery in 2015? 

Friday, October 3, 2014

Boeing's Virtual Build And Boeing's Pilots

One thing that Boeing has learned through the 787-8 experience is how its gained a reliance on computer models with the correct information inputs into its virtual system. New flight laws keep occurring from real time testing on the flight line. When Boeing started with the 787-8 it had to use metal aircraft data for the virtual design center information base, since it only  had data from flying examples in the metal world. The 787-8 took about 3,000 hrs of flight time of testing, before the good to go signal. Then the 787-9 took about 1,500 hours before saying we have it modeled in the virtual system and with the practical mode of flying. Lesson learned in the virtual mode were updated on its design centers computers from the dash 8 to the dash nine. Assumptions made that worked remained and assumption that didn't work were expunged off the data modeling. Those were replaced with actual 787-9 data.

Next Aircraft  up is the 787-10 with a longer stretch than the 787-9. Throw another barrel on the fire. One so long that it can't be transported to Everett by the Dream Lifter, so it will be built and remain in Charleston, SC until assembly time.

One out-growth from the 787-8 project is the reliance on the computer model, even when guessing a little. The modeling tells the engineers that close computer results gets it off the ground, and actual flying updates are added to the data, where it provides a pathway on how to fine tune the aircraft with new options. It is a far more complete and efficient way of making complex aircraft over the old trial and error method of test pilots flying, and later having conversations on the flight line. Test pilots still require a rigorous shake down of flying aircraft having immense flying skills. However, those flight line conversations with the engineers are much shorter as a bank of computer servers relay data on what happens during flight maneuvering. How the structure flexes, how  the lifting surfaces react and any other in flight characteristics that form anomalies. These results of the test are discovered through duration flying where it goes to the computers and are forwarded to the next model up. The human element remains important as pilot behavioral input, reactions, and expectations are needed for the model. "Human input" to the project must be part of the virtual model!

The 787-9 just did a remarkable performance of gaining flight status after 1,500 hundred hours. Thanks to the 787-8 lessons, and correcting "wrongly assumed designed points" in the virtual model. It is best said that 90%  of the model was spot on for the 787-8, and 98% of the 787-9 was spot on from the modeling attributes. The Dash Ten should come in 98.5 to 99%  spot on from comparing modeling to real flight tests, completely eliminating the trial and error curve entirely, even as the 787-8 had already accomplished.

In spite of all the white noise, the 787 project has created from press reporting. The big news is found indoors at the Boeing design center, where it will pull together its 777X model, A computer design with all the lessons learned, since WWII for its 777X flying wings. Boeing will know before the 777X takes off for its first flight, what it will do. The test pilots will confirm the model and offer valuable advice for making the aircraft a pilot's aircraft. That is the import part of selling it into the future, what the pilot has to say.  I remember how Mike Carriker came off the first 787-8. He was was an engineering hero. His eyes were lit up like an eight year old boy at Christmas with his first airplane toy. The thing flew just like it did in the lab. It was the beginning of something new for Boeing. The virtual model actually flies like "we imputed the information into the computer". The computer model removes 98% of trial and error flight testing.

Wind tunnels are important confirmation and refinement points in design. Pilots are for validation for flight characteristics and the human interface advancements. Mike, being both an accomplished pilot and engineer melded his professional expertise in both the design center and flight line.They are not just there to come back alive as found in the 1950-70's. They are important for the human interface of the machine for all its future pilots.

The 787-8 was five years extra in coming for the engineers, but that effort would have taken 20 years using 1970's technology or not at all. The 787 did a hole-in-one shot and did not lay-up short for a chip shot and a put. Mike Carriker is both an engineer and master pilot where he spent time  both indoors at the design center, and on the the flight line. As most Boeing Test pilots now have that dual role. It's the only way to get the virtual world correct. Now bring on the 777X and the 787-10!

Thursday, October 2, 2014

5+2=7(737), or numbered as 52 or times Its Own Numbers =10 more a month

It was a fine year to be born in 1952. My lucky number, then Boeing announces it will build 52, 737's a month going forward 4 years ahead of myself. Numbers are an important thing for bean counters, as I have served in that capacity as well. 52 X's 12 = 624 Max and NG's a YEAR. Everybody knew it was coming. Workers told their children to get a machinist skill in the Renton, Wa area, several years back. There is a future right here in Renton Town. I once went to trade school in Renton and know the clamor going on way past the Job service doors. Its called getting ready for the next great push in aviation. Young folks, get your google on, and learn more technology. You have a Job coming near your rainforest soon. Or move to the plains and join "Spirit". Good Move/!

So here is the low down on the low down. I doing this feature on the cheap and will link you to the news.

Boeing To Raise 737 Production Again By 2018


"Boeing has announced plans to raise output of 737s beyond its current production plans, saying global demand for new aircraft justifies it.
The move to build 52 737s a month in 2018, from 42 currently, while widely expected, shows Boeing's confidence that its factory and its network of suppliers can step up to the rate for Boeing's single-aisle jet.
The increase will push production of 737s to 624 a year in 2018, almost matching the 648 the company delivered last year across all four of its main models."
While many suppliers will be able to meet the higher rate, they fear the increase won't last more than a couple of years, not long enough to justify the costs of increasing their capacity, said Ken Herbert, an analyst at Canaccord Genuity who recently surveyed about 45 companies that supply Boeing.
"It is not ideal from a supplier standpoint because of the capital investment required and the negative financial implications of then taking rates down," he said. "This significantly increases the risk, in the eyes of the suppliers."
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Suppliers are concerned this is an airplane building bubble number, and are hesitant to increase its own supply chain capabilities just to have Boeing soften the supply chain quantities only a few years after implementing the production increase.
Point well taken.

Boeing laid the groundwork with its Asia conference last month when it said Asia will need about 6,012 new aircraft over the next 20 years. Most of those will be single aisle types. The second key point, is that Randy Tinseth was only speaking about Asia, and not the world market in total. To know the world forecast of that market is key for the supplier. Boeing is betting on a rush of single Aisle sales in the next five years as airline place holders, for timely deliveries for the world wide demand. Asia is just getting into the order fracas sooner rather than later. Somebody will have to make those parts for either Boeing or Airbus. This next bubble will be one with duration. Those who blink will be unprepared in the supply chain. Here are a few Pondering Points:
  • World demand is not exclusive to Boeing
  • The order rush has not fully yet begun
  • The current rush, is for place holding for fleet renewals, and not fleet increases.
  • Fleet Increase Orders are now on the horizon ready to pad the order book.
  • Supplier Expansion Risk is ready for Reward during this next decade.  

Boeing is expecting or is tendering new orders for the Max in 2015, and has a certain expectation for the next four years for what its going to do in the single aisle market. It too, does not want to increase capacity by 20% if it doesn't need to do so. Suppliers should, after careful review, increase capacity for its Boeing customer, as it realizes it could gain advantages for or with both mega builders in Europe and the US.
In conclusion, the suppliers are watching both the NEO and Max once it flies in tests, then they will know how they will expand, and for whom they will be expanding.

Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Sikorsky Raider Day October 2, 2014

Game on tomorrow as Sikorsky launches its first out the door Raider S-97 October 2, 2014. Here is the Link:








The shape of things to come. I am excited for our military pilots and crews. Hoorah!

3rd Quarter Boeing Bank Notations Are In: (Updated)

Deliveries are in for the third quarter 2014 of which Boeing has received cash money on each 787 provided, totaling 31 copies for the 3rd quarter. Several items of note are provided below from production values: One unit was moved out of September into October resulting in a final tally for 10 September 787's delivered, and reducing the moving average for the quarter to 10.33 units per month from 10.67 for the three months averaged per +-30 days.

Quarterly Production Notes:
  • 31 787's (including Four 787-9's)
  • 27 787-8's
  •   4 787-9's

Summary notes: That Boeing, inspite of it's often reported work slowdowns, and  plant changes due to its upgrades installed within aircraft, they have maintained Ten A Month Delivery over the last two quarters. That's right six months straight where they are averaging over Ten A Month, the listed/stated goal. Boeing is not out of the woods yet, but it is coming down the home stretch in a solid position with the lead.

Goal +/-                          07/2014    08/2014          Projecting      September (actual)  Delta 
Month Deliveries              *8              **13               10            10                           -3
3 M-M-avg                      11.33           12.33            10            10.33                  + .33
Production Goal                10               10                 10           10                             0
Delivery Trend (+/- )       -1.33            +2.33                   -. 0          + .33      /Target           >                
                                       *PM-Start      **M.A.P.                            PM-End
*Progression Months
**Moving Average Progression

Tuesday, September 30, 2014

DDG 1000 90% Complete With Rolls Royce Turbines Light Off



Pictured above is one of two Rolls Royce gas turbines in preparation to "Light Off", a term used by the Navy when activating it for the first time with its turbine power on the DDG 1000 destroyer. The twin turbines plus twin auxiliary motors could produce enough electricity for 10,000 homes. It will do more than this with it on board. 30+ NM/Hr speed, a potential-Rail Gun, Radar/Sonar, Computers and shipboard electric razors.

Similar to The All Electric 787 systems, in that a Jet engine powers its systems. All Electrical 787 actuators, move flight surfaces and any other electric/electronic dependent systems.

The DDG 1000 has twin screws powered by the latest in  electrical motors. Diesel/Electric pairings have been with the railroad for almost a century. Those technology advances refined and advanced are passed on to this class of destroyer.

Press Quotes below  from:

"Marine Log"


"Neil Pickard, Rolls-Royce, Program Executive said: "On behalf of the entire DDG 1000 program team, I am very pleased to confirm the successful light-off of the first Rolls-Royce MT30 main turbine generator set this week. The accomplishment of this important milestone is significant as it enables us to progress with more comprehensive and self-sufficient testing of the ship's Integrated Power System (IPS) over the weeks and months ahead."
The IPS on the DDG 1000 generates all the electrical power required for main propulsion, combat systems, sensors and weapons systems."
"Onboard the Zumwalt are two Rolls-Royce MT30 Main Turbine Generator Sets (MTGs) and two RR4500 Auxiliary Turbine Generator Sets (ATGs) that will provide a total of 78 MW for total ship power - the MTGs provide 35.4 MW each and the ATGs 3.8 MW each.
The MT30 is the most power dense marine gas turbine in the world, selected to power the most modern and advanced vessels in the US Navy, including the Freedom Class Littoral Combat Ship, as well as the Royal Navy's Queen Elizabeth Class aircraft carriers, the innovative Type 26 Global Combat Ship, and the Republic of Korea Navy's FFX Batch II frigate."
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Below is a comparison from the older DDG 51 going to to the new DDG 1000.
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Airbus Claims It Has Put The (LIon) In Its Cage For 2016

Double announcement, the A350 is cleared for take-off for delivery by the European governance over airline certification. The second item relates to the Lithium-Ion battery where it will re-install the Boeing-like battery into its aircraft. They say they have taken a different road on mitigating the "battery problem". Actually, they are borrowing from LIon lessons learned from Boeing when they themselves didn't know what to do with it back in 2011. After extensive rewiring and back-ups on the Airbus, its okay for it to fail since they installed plan B's, MAcGyver style. Now "they" Airbus knows what to do? A good rule of thumb, is that Airbus knows how to to do it better if Boeing already did it "(John Leahy)".

Airbus to bring back lithium-ion batteries on A350


Oh well, good bye Ni Cad.

Monday, September 29, 2014

200th Post For 2014

When I first began blogging on October 17, 2012 I had no Idea how if I could consistently hold enthusiasm in providing for writing about what I see, observe and think concerning aviation. I had to quickly narrow the subject towards something regional as well as worldwide. Since I had some aviation interest in both World War II aircraft and Lockheed's SR-71 project through my Uncle's experience in both worlds of war and technology, I began a Boeing focus and vowed that I would write and support this endeavor more specifically the 787 project. Additionally, I took on all technology advancements coming from Boeing as fair game.

This was a self-imposed writing assignment. I had a massive heart attack on June 1, 2011 at work. I was pronounced dead by all the attending emergency room doctors at about 4:30 PM that day. My wife was called to my gurney side and she touched my feet as it to say a final goodbye. A miracle happened for those who still have a belief in miracles. It happened, after shutting off life support, ceasing CPR, and breathing; and stopping electrical heart shocks, with the cessation of adrenaline shots. 

They pronounced me finally dead. The team was tired from two hours of resuscitation and sweaty hard work to save me.  My wife came to me after the report was written up and she grab my feet as one last effort to say good bye. The last wires were still connected to my chest and then to the EKG monitor. The nurse hadn't finished cleaning up the room. Then it happened, "Beep" and more faint beeps. My wife holding my feet experienced the miracle. One nurse snapped her head at the monitor and started a panic rush and called back the team in a rescue attempt. They kept the heart going. I was stabilized with a steady heart beat after the death call was made earlier.

As in all cases where oxygen is starved from the Brain, I suffered anoxic brain injury. The heart specialist who had seen thousands of heart attacks, by-passes and stents told my wife, I wouldn't make it. They went in with scopes and examine my heart to see what happened. The doctor reassured my family I would really die. But I didn't. Then the Brain doctor came in and said, pack me in "Ice". He needs protection from being off oxygen when he was declared dead. His brain is swelling. 

My Cardiologist, who consulted with the neurologist, agreed on the temperature reduction for the brain. He came out to talk to my wife about the big chill effort. He told her I wouldn't last, and will die, but this is a last ditch effort to saved anything for "Me". I survived and recovered from the brain injury. My Cardiologist then "resigned" (actually quite his practice that day), and said I was his last patient after saying three times I was dead, I would die, or this is the last ditch effort to save him. After my indomitable core driven spirit took over, I made it to this very day in 2014. He (My ex cardiologist) is finishing Law School I presume.

Part of my recovery and rehab was to bring back my mental faculties. I awaken after 17 days not knowing what had just occurred. I thought I was still at work. Then it was explained, what happened to me. I had to go to rehab in order for my mental processes could establish. The long therapy road began. My memory was disrupted and in some cases gone. But during the rehab process, I was assigned a writing work in the winter of 2012. This would improve my cognizance, if I did that. I played the mental card games given me during the winter, and then started looking for a theme to blog about, which is in my main interest, is "aviation".

I have written all blogs myself and have inserted actual news and web articles, as I am limited on travel and research so you may see a steady improvement on writing and composition. It is a progression and goal for me to obtain mental parity in our world. I appreciate your reading my opinion, and insight after much research on the topic of aviation. I have multiple experiences that luckily have retained in my long term memories, where short term stuff can slid off the table on a given day. This blog is about everything I run into doing online research with Boeing. For better or worse I chose Boeing as the topic, and have become a writing advocate in hopes of making people think about what I write from research, observation and life’s knowledge.

On October 17th I wrote a test blog line to see it would work. It Did.

By the way' This is the 200th posting in 2014 and 423 over-all posting since October 17, 2012

Below is my first Blog Link in October of 2012.

All things 787: Boeing gets a break in the weather, send up 3 787s for flight tests Announcement OF BA 787 Start Of Construction