The Dirty Little Airplane Wars By Marquess Of Queensberry. Airbus Keeps Its Dukes Up!

"Taking aim at Airbus's flexibility over pricing of the A330, whose development was paid for long ago, a Boeing executive said it would be a "losing proposition" against the smaller 737 in China, even if Airbus gave up any gap in price.

An Airbus official retorted curtly, saying Boeing's own data was "veracity-challenged".

Rueters reference see link below.

Combine that with John Leahy's, " Dogs Breakfast", at Singapore Air Show. You are beginning to see a pattern that Boeing has really, really  an irritating new Zip Code under Airbus' central nervous systems spine. Everywhere Airbus turns, is a sales pitch from Boeing, that is blocking Airbus' attempt on world dominance. Its begins to show-up with the 747-8i, in that dwindling Fat Body market for the A-380 and is encroached upon by a cheaper and more efficient by seat count, 747-8i. Currently, Boeing is nipping at Airbus' below its own A380 break even point. With the A-380 order count at 304 total booked, it can't reach its break-even number due to time valuation for money as it will take another 10 years of production.  Cost increases and money devalues on locked prices. The break-even point varies over time upward in units, and Airbus is doomed to that outcome, as order numbers grow quiet. Even though Airbus has just received a large order for the A-380, (two years of sales work) that profit dog won't hunt in the upcoming years. It will lay on the Airbus' front porch by 2016. Everybody who wants one will have its orders up. 2016 and Airbus will be in a mid afternoon restaurant slump for the A-380. While the little dog, 747-8i may continue to nip at Airbus' heals.

Rueters: Article Reference for Context

Wikipedia Unofficial Count

Customer	Entry into service	Firm Orders	Options	Deliveries	EA	RR	Press Release
Air Austral	2014	2			*
Air France	2009	12	2	9	*		[2]
Asiana Airlines	2014	6				*	[3][4]
British Airways	2013	12	7	4		*	[5]
China Southern Airlines	2011	5		5		*	[6]
Emirates	2008	140		44	90		[7]
Etihad Airways	2014	10	5		*		[8]
Hong Kong Airlines	2015	10
Kingdom Holding Company	2013	1				*
Korean Air	2011	10		8	*		[9]
Lufthansa	2010	14	2	10		*	[10]
Malaysia Airlines	2012	6		6		*	[11]
Qantas	2008	20	4	12		*	[12]
Qatar Airways	2014	10	3		*		[13][14]
Singapore Airlines	2007	24	1	19		*	[15]
Skymark Airlines	2014	6				*	[16]
Thai Airways International	2012	6		6		*	[17]
Transaero Airlines	2015	4			*		[18]
Virgin Atlantic	2018	6	6			*	[19][20]
Totals		304	31	123	148	106

304 orders with  123 deliveries tells the tale after a many year leap (2007) on Boeing's next offering, the 787 (2012). Even though they are not in the same same class, they represent the same type of gigantic capitalization poured out during a R&D and production of a type change aircraft. Boeing will surpass  the Airbus A-380 break even point on the 787 from its own investment hole. Before Airbus can get it "there", as in making money they will languish since the A380 is inflexible for route changing. In fact the order book will shrink before Airbus can make its money on the aircraft, where Boeing continues to bring in, its 787 sales order book, well beyond break even. Boeing now has enough 787 on the books to make a profit by 2017. That is my own sensible projection for writing down a profit for the project, when everyone else says sometime in 2015 for the 787. Sometime in 2015 will also be the follow-on sales years for current owners of the aircraft. The A-350 will have its splash during that time and the comparisons will have been made. A second look for the 787 after 2015, will be at an epic period for the 787. All airlines will want to know who did the best. The 787 or the A-350.

If Boeing fixes everything in a permanent fashion by then, "they really need to do that little thing",  it will come down to bottom lines of commercial carriers and the flying reach of such aircraft in its business plans. The A-330 is already marked for niche duty, and will have a graduation ceremony of rotating out to those niche routes, as airlines resupply  the A-330 with the "new premier generation of aircraft". This includes the MAX and the 777X models coming on, later in the decade.

So the Dog's breakfast is now seved in South East Asia by Leahy. The stakes are high, and becomes the tipping point for the duopoly. Winner takes the domination award. "The Veracity (or lack thereof) Challenge Award" should be awarded to Airbus rather than Boeing. The old school yard adage is in play at high levels, as Boeing is tempted to say, "it takes one to know one". Since they brought it up, they will receive the "Veracity Award Of Acheivement". They somehow explain how the A-350 works better than a 787, before customers even take delivery, using old technology with a plastic bodies. Meanwhile these so called  "untruthful competitors", have over 120 airlplanes for its customers flying every day, every hour and every second. After-all, Airbus sweeps the "Hydraulics" award, and the "My Extra Wide Body is Not Enough Award" (77X). Plus they receive a medallion for "No New Breakthrough Technogoly On The A-350 Award. They just barrowed from 787 suppliers, its new stuff to plug and play on the A-350.

I haven't mentioned the Neo and single isle dominance. Unfortunately no one has produced its single isle champion to the market, as of yet, and we have bloated order books for both sides. The veracity remains with its actual operational numbers. The spin of the roulette wheel will tell who wins and who loses. The Max has made the case it beats the NEO. The Neo claims order book numbers and proclaims,"customer's know best, look at our sales numbers". Boeing retorts, "we are gaining on you NEO because we are better." ... And so forth and so forth!

This battle will be solved by the veracity of flight test numbers of the MAX. Then the table will turn when those actual numbers come out and play in the minds of airline analyst and CEO's. If the Max has more seats than the comparable Neo and flies cheaper, then the single isle market does not move aircraft for its amenities, but for the the cheaper ticket prices. On board passenger gizmo's are not as important on a three hour flight as on a 15 hour 787 flight. Customers want to hop on and hop off with value and efficiency. The MAX has a leg up on that matter as its ticket prices could trend lower than the NEO's  tickets could do, because of MAX value is imputed within the airframe. Why fly on an American Airlines NEO when you can fly on a SW Max for those hours spending $20 dollars cheaper for the ticket, savy!

That would also take Boeing to get that message out after its two years in service. Then you will see aircraft NEO models orders, flipping from Airbus to Boeing in the third year during the NEO vs MAX war.

Veracity of a Dog's Breakfast is Airbus' war cry, as it pains its way through South East Asia's market. A better war cry from Boeing is the "The Silence of Victory is Our Engine, Our Wings and Our Design".

The Terrible Teens and What To Do!

Like all parents who no longer can cope with a terrible teen there are options for that parent who will remedially apply techniques on that teen. The 787-8 who languishes with a thousands drops of water torture in Everett,WA. Is the billion dollar write -off that doesn't necessarily have to happen. Boeing needs to find a partner on a 787-8 project. One suggestion could have good consequences and  provide a win-win solution.

Enter a military agreement by developing those terrible teens (production numbers 11-19) in an AWACS development plan.  The large 787-8 as opposed to the much smaller 737 current submarine hunters or AWAC type aircraft could be crammed with up to one hundred specialist and its equipment to manage war on the ground, air and sea in array of devices up linked to satellites and its photography. Imagine having a 15 hour on station presence over a broad playing field directing friendlies and defeating the foes. Integrating with cruise missiles, submarine and other tactical applications. The ability to find intruders in an array of tracking devices and giving real time updates by the milli second data streams. Attacks and targets are orchestrated from above in the middle space. It would use both the up-linking of ground inputs giving targets on the ground a specific GPS address and directing that upload to war fighters is the sub space internet. Mufti tasking a large array of equipment could be the "terrible teens tasks".

So Boeing should look to the military and offer a quid quot pro deal in upgrading war field management with jets large enough and jets that can fly long enough to have a 24 hour presence in a theater of war. This integration would provide all services the ultimate high ground. Satellites have greater safety but are diminished by the ability of using up satellite resources in re positioning where an aircraft could give a broader range of services and remain on station 24 hours a day with shifts of flights with a super large command center during a crises.

To further make this case one would think a missile shoot down of this large aircraft with a hundred skilled persons would be a tragic loss. And it would be. But the same electronics on-board the large command center would also track, aircraft, missiles and its launches where a sufficient shield would protect this command center in seconds rather than minutes. Early warning and defensive measure would most certainly protect the 787 platform, as it could integrate its own defense from all the war making delivery systems from the Army, Navy and Air force at its disposal. A multi-missile attack would expend valuable resources a foe needs to sparingly use against the US Arm Force. Counter measures would be directed by the 787 Command center since it has all the data available of its resources available and to deploy it.

The 787 has plenty of electrical generation on-board to expand the AWACs mission into a true battle field command center without using up its military satellites when re positioning them. The 787 high ground can reach most satellite trajectories to relay battle field information and these terrible teens could do that Job.

John Leahy " Dogs Breakfast,", Really JOHN At An Event!

Especially when considering the status of what Dogs are in, with a Singapore Menu selection for the South East Asia cuisine.

The cover line – War over wide bodies – refers to Max Kingsley-Jones’s piece, filed from the show, about how the big two air framers were taking potshots at the other’s twin-aisle product strategy at Singapore, with Airbus’s John Leahy describing his rival’s eight-aircraft line-up in the 200- to 400-seat space as a “dog’s breakfast”. Boeing’s Randy Tinseth retorted by saying Airbus’s A350 “looks a little, too late to the market place”. - See more at: The Link 

http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/flight-international-editors-blog/2014/02/war-widebodies/#sthash.fegizXy2.dpuf

This is a quick quip about our Euro Trash, as in taking the trash out in Singapore. The A-350 is a lost leader blow out sale for undiscerning airlines.  Even with the 787-8 roll out into the market place glitching all the way because it is loaded with electronic opportunity for airlines, the A350 can't glitch what they don't have. Once Boeing sorts out all the advancements into a complying format it will make the A-350 a waste of time and money. Lithium -Ion is not dead, and those software issues are handled.

So John, I'm surprised, as the head sales chief as a manufacturer of flying big stuff. You make that kind of remark in South East Asia. Dog is sometimes is what's for dinner not for breakfast, assuming dogs are on the menu.

Qatar Buys Air From Boeing

Not actually air but the wind that is created, as the globe spins. Qatar has agreed to integrate Boeing wind information systems on its current fleet of 787 aircraft. Those annoying head winds will be dampened by flight management systems as it updates the latest flight conditions from wind occurrences around the world, and take advantage of both head and tails of wind. The importance of this information is called a flight management tool. Resulting in a many tiered advantage. Timeliness and fuel efficiency is the air That Boeing sales to Qatar. Fuel loads eat into the profitability of one launch. How much fuel is loaded in weight determines how much more or less the aircraft will burn. Finding the right winds could save tens of thousands of $ dollars on one trip. A global system from satellites measures jet stream and wind currents relaying that information to a target aircraft en-route to its destination. The on-board computer may tweak the flight a little north or south of the flight line drawn on its filed flight plan. A small deviation will squeeze and save more fuel for the next flight and so forth. At the end of the year one can project the what ifs out of the systems  into dollars saved directly from operations to the bottom line.

Qatar bought air flow from Boeing in a package. The sales team made a case that air can cost you money if mis-applied.

Qatar Airways and Boeing in deal to maximize in-flight operational efficiency

"Qatar Airways and Boeing have signed a five-year agreement to provide Boeing Wind Updates services for the airline to maximize in-flight operational efficiency.

Boeing Wind Updates provides customized, real-time wind and temperature information to aircraft. This data allows for more efficient trajectory prediction during pre-flight operations and continuous optimization in-flight by providing tailored wind information for flight crews and the aircraft flight management system. As part of the agreement, Boeing Wind Updates will be integrated fleet-wide, across all Qatar Airways Boeing and Airbus aircraft.

“We are pleased to upgrade our wind up-link capability by integrating the Boeing Wind Updates service into our operations at Qatar Airways to properly predict and measure current wind conditions,” said Qatar Airways CEO Akbar al-Baker."

Harrumph We'll Build That Wing Anywhere, Harrumph We'll Build The 777X Anywhere

Hey Seattle/Everett, Harrumph, Boeing isn't going anywhere, but just across the parking lot. After much consideration and flirts with States, Cities and municipalities the 777x comes totally home. Otherwise, it never left the NW or the municipality for that matter. Boeing just gave a big harrumph to the union and went back to work in Everett. The 777X magical wing is being built in Oz. Holy Corsair Batman! This wing will be carted across the hall way to assembly when completed. I know those ginormous buildings don't have hallways, that in itself is an obscene concept. The folding, flexing, and flying wing is going to be built right near the Emerald city. However it won' t be attached to flying monkeys. The 777X is the new magical bird with an all new wing, conceived in a purpose driven plans for world domination. It is rapidly gaining harrumph in Everett. Warning, the next harrumph is for Airbus. Mel Brooks, movie making mogul, would be proud of Boeing's corporate harrumphs in succession ( "Blazing Saddles" fame).

The folding, flexing and flying wing (FFFW) for those in need of a acronym has relocated to another building space. Or you could now call it the flying folding flexing Wing without losing track of the concept. Or go to the flexing, flying and folding after take-off and then landing. Otherwise FFFW makes you an expert no matter how you order the wing functions, just so the W is listed last, you become a Boeing wing type expert. From now on, I will refer to it as the folding, flexing and flying Wing on its third acronym permutation. Its easier to call it out as FFFW, then everybody is right and no one loses. All the FFFW needs is a big building number. A contest may have started to number the building. The number 42 is available and the letters "B" for bend it Beckem, or "W" for your flying monkey wings", are just flying rumors around the many buildings in Everett. Maybe an available EMC barn comes to mind. These are important issues remaining for the FFFW facilities!

A  large towing  engine would pull the wing out one door from its birthing and incubation facility to the extra large 777X production floor. Auto claves are needed for the large sections. Small  complimentary pieces could arrive from  suppliers like the flaps and leading edge components found on the Boeing 787 parts bin of suppliers. The main thing is the second largest part would move with normal equipment on hand. Perhaps even the main wing assembly fits comfortably on the 787 wing moving carts.

Since my seat is not on the board rather a very friendly confines on ones own Costco type chair. I guess with a digress. That Boeing is sewing together its plan, post haste, with its plan-in hand meeting by April. All contingencies and process for the "Facility" (FFFWF) will have final approvals available for the lead VP to sign off on. The FFFWF is now on for 2015. Those golden workers will achieve a miracle of joining the FFFW to the 777X. The program is growing on the factory floor, and becomes the FFFWF777X production sequence.  An Acronym that takes up the introductory paragraph of its white paper going up the chain of command. Eventually it is the goal of floor supervisors that it becomes a reality so they may, in production mode, initial below the mast head's work-order on the bottom line their own initials as it proceeds forward down the line. My own initials are used in this signature/production approval for the FFFWF777x-9-apb. The wing has now becomes a production reality in Everett, Wa. That wasn't hard at all, and Boeing could have avoided this whole mess of fishing for Red Herrings over the land and sea by just staying put to begin with, but they had to have its harrumph moments to justify who's boss once more.

Lithion-Ion Brings Promise Of Invention From The Mother's Necessary Nurture

Promise is the operative word. Boeing /787 woes have a sordid tale of fire and smoke and some mishap. Even though millions of passenger have already flown on the aircraft with millions of miles and hundreds of thousands cycles. That is current battery clue, ...cycles. As those cycles occur, science has isolated at the molecular level a diminished capacity to handle the electrical transactions in the battery and then begins the building of runaway heat. More cycles mean more vulnerability for a battery event. Even with the new safety precautions Boeing does not have a behavioral compliance for its Lithium-ion battery over expected usage cycles. In other words there is a chance, not on all batteries, but occasional batteries, that  a battery could deplete at its molecular  level and have inability to stay stable and not have a runaway episode. If that time would occur, then Boeing has adequate protection, and sufficient system to handle any event. The Boeing is therefore, safe for all its customers.

The lessons learned here is that the passengers should not have any hesitation about flying the 787 with its current battery strategy of treating a failing battery during flight. It may be no more worrisome than a during flight failure of a kitchen appliance where the potatoes are taken off the menu because the oven is down until arriving at its destination. That is my perspective of the current battery problem.

Establishing a safe habitat for a temperamental issue allows for the necessary time
for the evolution of battery technology, once the Achilles heal of the Lithium-ion has been exposed. Some elemental questions remain on the Boeing table with the FAA.

Should an airplane fly with the possibility of battery runaway during operations?

My own thought doesn't count or matter. Boeing has convinced those who matter and who do the counting , that things fail on all aircraft during life cycles in operation. As long as you have preventative measures installed on those habitual parts of wear and tear, then they have it covered for safe operation. That is the wear impediments Boeing addresses on the 787, a containment box.

The science report that shows promise. A new way of stabilizing The Lithium-ion battery in the lab is under study. No fires ever and no containment box period!

New Polymer Could End Battery Fires, Quadruple Efficiency

While testing the material, the team realized this perfluoropolyether — PFPE or Li/LiNi1/3Co1/3Mn1/3O2 for you chemists out there — could dissolve lithium salt, an indicator needed to produce conductivity in batteries. “Most polymers don’t mix with salt, but this one did,” says grad student and head researcher Dominica Wong. “And it was nonflammable.”


Boeing pushes science with its Lithium Ion Battery and science pushes back.  The "Golden Battery" maybe sooner than later. An airplane without a containment case becomes obsolete. The billion dollar answer is just a  few years away. Containment is becoming just a stop gap not a solution. Research has a new guide on to explore with promising results. Aviation is probably jumping all over this promise with added support and money.

All though this is not a panacea for the current Lithium -Ion  battery problem, it is a new path to pursue with a solid architecture for stability. Who knows how this will play out as the for the click of LI lock is found. Science will play this out with billions of $ at stake. 

In the mean time Boeing can fly on with solid containment of a mystery.

The Tired Tale Of Trouble With Charleston's 787

It was mentioned earlier in this blog that a few trained lead engineers, workers, and technicians mix in with an untrained workforce would make problems. Contract worker are hired in to calm the production woes. Its next prgression is one gigantic cluster formation on the floor. That is where Boeing is today, finding out who clustered forced who during this last surge in production.  Is this another epic movie of "Saving Ryans Privates"? I don't think so. Now Boeing rolls out its heavy cannon for a starboard broadside at any one willing to watch. Admiral McNerney commands in a very weak font this day.

"This is what happens on all of our programs," he said. "Sometimes when we break to a rate, it surfaces an issue that needs some extra attention. And that's really the story here."

Wow, I am really underwhelmed as the wings keep flapping on the factory floor in the cadence of overworked seven-day work shifts, having little sleep. That sounds an issue surfaces, and the rate is broken. The left hand fell asleep on the right hand. Corporate Boeing refuses to give in to its "Dick Headed Momentum".

They are sending in 600 more of the Light Brigade in a futile war way over near Sochi near Crimea. Everybody keep moving, nothing hapining here, and stay back from the yellow tape. All I can tell is that nothing really is happening there until Boeing restores a compitant workforce with realistic goals, other than the dreams of the board of directors.  Boeing spent too much money in Charleston to think other wise. Boeing would be spot on with 8-9 frames compleeated a month. This magical 10 is a graph and chart dream that is breaking the hearts and minds of people who want to do well but have inadequate leadership and expertise to keep the wheels on the production cart. It takes tens years to build the magic on the floor. Charleston been at now for three years barely. Now Boeing up the rates and pinkies are getting jammed in the process. Barrels colide at the mid section. Workers are just plain beat with 10 a month game plan.

Why can't they do it like Everett, WA where they have built every big airplane since 1969. Well, that a no brainer when you put contractors and temporaries and a smattering of key people together to build the most advanced aircraft flying today. Your B team is trying really hard but they are lacking a solid leadership base experienced in putting the 787 together consistantly. Too many mishaps, misteps and regrets occur every week.. They Know how to do it! Because they are doing it. Ten aircraft rate breaks the rubber band holding Charleston together, and Boeing knows the whole production scheme is at risk unless they stop sending out memos from board meeting directing more airplane production without having the real status of the factory echoing from those who really know what they need to do, but will only tell that everything is fine just like McNerney stated earlier in this article, (fading font)

"This is what happens on all of our programs," he said. "Sometimes when we break to a rate, it surfaces an issue that needs some extra attention. And that's really the story here."

Rumors Of The 747-8I Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

Mark Twain, American Humorist, once penned something that way with himself in mind. The 747-8I hangs in there with a sale by sale determination. By no means is the 747-8I dead. Boeing's sales minions are developing relationships so airline executives will listen. They talk about the 777X and the MAX. These sales teams continuously speak of the 787-8-9-10. By then an airline is clobbered with a 747-8I proposal they often don't see coming or consider. A perfectly normal response could be, "I thought the 747-8I died! So goes the saga of the 747-8.

Airplane aficionados also think the 747 is a stop gap order that will soon fade into the sunset. The Airbus A-380 is the biggest in the sky. It hold the most passengers and is extremely quiet and so forth. However, sales have slowed on this behemoth, just short of a break even order book number. Remember the 787 is rapidly approaching a Boeing break-even point order book number.

So the 747-8I is only a statement aircraft in response to the A-380. Its four engines seeks after a fuely hydrated twin engine market. Is the 747-8 dead? Mark Twain suggest a gross exaggeration of rumors. Answered earlier, no way! Its going about its business in a quiet four engine march. Freight keeps its plant doors churning copy. Lufthansa has no complaints and a few others are sneaking orders past the press, much to the irritation of Airbus.  So what does Boeing sales department have up its sleve when it comes to the 747-8I. I clipped something out of the Singapore Airshow press briefings from Boeing's sales chief at the show, Dinesh Keskar.

"Not surprisingly, Keskar ranks Singapore as perhaps the top market for Boeing in Southeast Asia, and one particularly suited to the 777X. But he also emphasized the potential embodied in the likes of Garuda Indonesia, which has expressed interest in the 747-8I, ..."

 Boeing Bullish About its Slice of Asian Market

That statement allows for a CPR breath for the 747-8I. The 777X 406 seat market shores up continuity from top to bottom in capacity from the 150 to the 747, 465 seat carrier, Boeing claims a 10% per seat advantage over similar configured aircraft refering to the A-380. Flying with empty seats is a higher risk with the 525 seat Airbus. Fat marrkets can do it with a 747-8i. South East Asia is a fat market (growing). Interest is higher than Airbus would like in these unique markets concerning the 747-8i. Airbus continues to rumor the 747 death. The 747 keeps showing up at the market place party held around the world as some kind of rude party crasher that is well out of fashion and unwanted by Airbus.

Moving Average Is A Better Indicator Of 787 Production

January numbers are in for Boeing 787 delivery. The true financial number for measuring output. Delivery takes into account all stops and goings on with the Boeing machine of production. A Boeing aircraft moves off the floor in under thirty days but languishes for months until disposition. Here is a 90 day moving average of that disposition which truely reflect a better picture of obstacles encountered  before getting into customer hands.

Month/Year       Delivered             90-day Moving Average Number
October/2013            9                              8.3
November/2013        5                              6.7
December/2013       11                             8.3
January/2014             4                             6.7

The 90 day average smooths out time and numbers when an aircraft is going out the door, it receives additional time for readiness or additional time from the customer is required. If it moves out and is counted as built, it may sit additional weeks into the next month.A moving average captures those anomalies and smooths it into a relative time frame of those production barriers not usually accounted for by Boeing.

An October built 787 may deliver in December. Those December delivered 787 may have frames from the preceding 90 preceding days of which they were built and ready for delivery. They may be built in October and counted as part of the 10 787 built that month, but additional work from both Boeing and the customer may continue for some time. Making the delivery date a more accurate count time for production since it captures all production steps until customers takes possession. That is why some months deliver 11 and some only 4 even though Boeing says it builds ten.

If one averages on a 90 day delivery cycle, an assumption is made that within a 90 day frame work of time, a monthly average smooths outs those impediments to production with a realistic number. Boeing chooses a build rate of when it is rolled out the door during the month cutting off all outside issues from the ten build plan per month.  Statistical measures can tell many stories. When the moving average hits 10 from month to month, I would say Boeing is on target. If Boeing delivers 120 787 in 2014, then they mean what they say.

Renton Washington's 737, The Antithesis Of Charleston's 787.

The 737 is going to 42 NG a Month. All sizes, shapes and colors. Boeing plans to eventually go Long with over 50 a month as it extends its plant floor space for the MAX. The How's, Why and What is going on there, the 737 is wrapped up into a mad cadence of two-a -day, with football like training. The secret is in a production plan as it`s executed in a special cadence. Take the micro scope down to one worker on the production floor. That worker has a job to do and it hasn't changed much over the plants quantum change. This worker still has its work orders, tools and methods intact. No hurry or a frenetic pace is present. Panic does not exist or does running to and fro. What has change is an efficient way of sequencing workload through those same work stations. The theory is that skilled people would not have to relearn new jobs but only continue with less production barricades from the older process. The work floor studied what were awkward impediments, and removed them from the process. It also implemented seamless ways for work flows. Just-in-time artistry came from a lengthy learning curve.

The work flow in tributaries come to the main channel found near the exit door for the 737 NG. Going from 34 a month to 42 a month without a depreciation of work quality or an individual workload increase per person, is the secret. Workers on the floor does it without  panic or a helter-skelter herculaneum effort, but with the same calm demeanor they did several years back. Only at the convergence of the collective effort does that energy result in an 737. To the worker, work may be more comfortable and efficient. Boeing is spending money on plant utilization of square footage. It is removing old school layouts and improving the distances taken for ingress and egress. Boeing has taken into account the addition of the Max line and planned out how that will incorporate without any disruption to the NG line. Once the NG new orders exhaust, Boeing will simply increase production using the NG space in dual with the Max production. Integration of work teams with keeping the workforce experts intact on the same square footage of plant space. If an NG comes down the line instead of the Max it will be treated with an "NG expertise workforce", and the Max is like wise when its new frame arrives. Production computers will keep the parts assigned to aircraft type will only go into the prescribed work station. The worker, professionally and calmly continues with their craft. A steady progress is the theme. "Do it right or don't do it." The right people in the right place for the right job is calmly executed. Just like a part arriving at the right point in the process so does the right person show up to handle it. The symphony continues without confusion, panic  or trouble. The 737 facility has been doing this for a long time.

Its not the technology that has flummoxed Charleston, SC., because of all that "new technology", it is the method of marshaling the work force in a centered effort matching its workforce maturity. Progressions should only move when every thing is correct. You can move a plant thousands of miles away, but you forgot to move your best people with it. If you do move your best people, then you leave the former post in disarray. That is Boeing's conundrum. Plant expansion is done by bull-dozers. Plant performance is that special formulation of its people. Example: How can an NFL team go from the Super Bowl Champs one year to mediocre the next. Only a few players retire, and a few coaches take on another gig and a couple more players get paid more going with another team. The sum of personnel has been tampered with significantly and becomes mediocrity waiting for the next great revival of team chemistry. The Team chemistry in South Carolina is seeking that "it" moment. They lack that "it". Renton has that "it" and they know how to keep "it" going. Don't fix the "it" fix the problem. Renton has identified what it needs to do and is marching forward without tampering with the "it". Boeing management must take those lessons from the North West, capture it in a bottle and let it go in Charleston. Sounds simple, but its not. A similar effects on why a prize pumpkin grows so big in one spot and in another spot its just an ordinary pumpkin.  The sum of "its" environment of that gigantic pumpkin is the secret. When Charleston or any other place achieves that environment found in the North West then it will grow giant pumpkins too!

Newspaper slams S.C. Boeing plant for "poorly done work"

Building The 787 Where Angels Fear To Tread

Sitting in a room 10 years ago someone had a bright idea! Let's rid ourselves of this blight found in the Northwest Unions. I for one don't adhere to the principles of unionism for various reason, but do acknowledge, the unions have played a significant role in the development of excellence. Even though the road is often rocky, the only motivations of unions are those benefits its leadership promises during each contract cycle.

South Carolina airplane building has a problem or greater than the sum of its workforce. Boeing intellect decided to build a union busting plant for its 787. That same leadership forgot to do several import things, like put people in positions who are realistic, and don't promise everything to get ahead.

In order to make the Charleston project work, upper management had set unrealistic goals and objectives beyond the capabilities of the newly formed plant culture.  Yes, plant culture. The culture is built upon a diverse population of workers from various backgrounds. The Everett model of culture is significantly different than Charleston's culture. Everett was not emulated in Charleston.  The can-do spirit in Everett, where it knows what it can do, will buck back if something isn't right.

In Charleston they will push through whether wires are connected or not. Management may parrot back yes we can even without a clue. The Everett Management is not competing with its list of unrealistic goals, but is competing with doing it right the first time.  Charleston has a corporate culture of not fully aware of having a matured production culture.

So Boeing is in transition of catching Charleston up with 80 plus years of building airplanes under the stress of war, commercial enterprise and finally advance technology in what the Boeing world is now experiencing. The Charleston building airplane culture did not exist five years ago. Boeing cobbled together this work force from some Everett people, surplus Engineers and walk up workers. Its management pool is given goals that are out there, while the team accepts that it can do anything to get there. The workforce of young and older upward mobile types have tendencies to do an over the top assessment of capabilities. They accept unrealistic goals with glee.

In Charleston they have colliding mid barrel sections, missing parts and incomplete work. Early signs of a no problem mentality refusing to get its culture in order. Everett is an airplane building culture is more calm and purpose driven. The Charleston culture is in a race to beat Everett. A job well-over its production rate's head. Charleston needs to reload the workforce, as it should have in the beginning.

The reason I know this because of where Charleston is today. The unit is struggling and overworks the problems. Everett has a well-conceived pace from its airplane building culture. Charleston will get there in three years, and Boeing knows it. Charleston must gain a superior mindset for getting it right the first time as Everett does reflexively. Those cultural memory muscles exist in Everett, but does not appear in Charleston, as that plant sorts out its mishaps.

Charleston Must Achieve The Following:

1.  A generational airplane building Culture.

2.  Memory Muscle on the production floor.

3.  Leadership immune from Corporate Rhetoric

4.  An Organization Focused On Getting it Right

5.  The main purpose is the main purpose

Sounds almost Union, but it isn't, it sounds like craftsmanship.

Boeing Attacks The Future With The 787

JAL just landed in Vancouver, Wa with its 787-8. What rides with these 186 first passengers is an army of technicians, engineers and designers. Boeing has unleashed an army of human resource to master  the refinement of the 787 in a short time period. It also has ramped up the build to 10 a month the best rate a new age wide body can go. Not only has it ramped up the build rate it has reigned in the flying squawks like a bug light during moth season. The importance of February-May 2014 time sequence can not be over looked. Today's Blog is dedicated to the arrival of JAL to Vancouver run as a new beginning for this juggernaut. Engineering is perfected during these next few months.


The arrival of this airplane steps up the footprint. Not only is the orient embracing this arrival today so is the aviation world as a whole. Why? It represent the Boeing surge forward towards its future. The dedicated effort is in place. If all continues as planned, the 787 will reach significant milestones in market presence. Market presence is critical for future orders in 2015. Once the 787 has reached not just a certain market share but a significant world footprint, customers will expect its ticket pricing, customer technologies and comfort. These items are becoming the new expectation in travel. How quickly Boeing moves forward with the 787 will indicate how far the 787 will take the future market. The 787 puzzle of problems will disappear leaving the 787 alone as the most advanced aircraft of its age. Airbus will not have solved the problem as it languishes in older ideas and applications.

Boeing 787 Dreamliner from Japan makes first landing at Vancouver's airport

Ground Hog Day Boeing Blog

It’s time to roll out the stew with potato beef and carrots. The traditional meal also calls for Corn Bread Honey and butter. That's what you do on Ground Hog Day in the USA.

I will make a six week forecast after I finish off another bowl of stew. Boeing's forecast is as follows:

Customers start reporting back that its business plans are genius because they are making money on airworthy 787's. China Southern opens New Zealand, and New Zealand anxiously awaits its own 787-9. In fact the prediction is that the 787 was really built for New Zealand. That is how genius Boeing customers are with its 787 in that part of the world. Norwegian Air finally solves its problems by spring break, hauling countless Norsemen to the Caribbean Islands for some R&R.  Problems? No problem as Boeing efforts out, a calming campaign, for glacial intrigue for the summer.

The global foot print is changing at a steady march on travel with the 787. If Boeing establishes a glitch free next six weeks then new orders will continue in September with another 100 or so orders by that time.  The winter of Customer discontent is drawing to a close. Boeing's audit plan by the FAA is highly orchestrated at all its factories on a fact finding binge of FAA compliance. 

Boeing executives are pondering all its production woes and the continued flying hiccups. They have placed a task force for each category of problem. By the fourth of July those task forces will have arms around each occurrence found in the 787 from the factory floor to the customer’s hanger. Air India can stop selling its Airplanes and leasing back those same aircraft. The Indian Government will conduct audits to induct aircraft. 

The Boeing footprint grows bigger by another fifty 787's. Those customers who receive the 787, continue to load those wide bodies with people and fly them around the world. As the side-liners complain about the 787 remaining late by three + years. The ground hog says wait six weeks and the 787 will have a revival time or rebirth of interest as Boeing proceeds to execute as they promised. That execution of a plan is a skill and is what Boeing does best. It executes a plan well. Boeing has resources dedicated to make bad things go away in a hurry. Each airline model, from the beginning of time (all models), has had a pause. From the 747 until now each model has had its moment of whoa! Even the 737 had a moment or two to short out some flying anomalies.

Now during this Ground Hog Day salute while it celebrates Boeing's winter of discontent closing in six weeks. Great things will happen that no one predicted because they are hooked on the "late" bi-line for all intelligent reports. The trick now is pulling off an airplane that is 20 years ahead of the Airbus' A-350. 

The 787 is still positioned to be that airplane. Customers who blink, like JAL, may find in the long run, they chose unwisely. The stakes are high. The 777 went through a refinement in service time and now 20 years later people clamor for the 777-300ER. The 777 has matured right before customers eyes. Just like an ugly awkward child grows up and becomes a beauty queen at age 20 right before the parents.  Boeing is quietly applying resources in numbers to various programs that were identified as problematic. This quiet strategy will once again emerge as a winner. Smart customers know this, impatient customers knee jerk around, and lost customers haven't got a clue.

In six weeks the battery issue is over as well as software problems. The reoccurring India syndrome will be solved. Every customer has its own teething problems with a new aircraft. Those will retire one by one, as its maintenance teams become more proficient in handling this new technology. . When Boeing delivers its 200th 787, then the wise commentators will speak! "I knew this a great airplane". Before next Ground Hog Day there will be close to 250 787 flying. It will also be the time to compare the Airbus effort in the A-350 group.

2014 Goals And Objectives Boeing To Do List (End of Year Update)

The month of 2014 has punched the clock for clearing the deck from 2013. 648 aircraft were delivered and Boeing talks of going north of 700 delivered aircraft during this current year. They have not provided the first Months numbers for 2014 but will do so next week. A bench mark is delivering any 787 at all in January. They have delivered 4 and several more customer deliveries will be booked for January. February is lining up as a robust 787 delivery month. Without having any deliveries in 2013 for the 787 during the first three months. Boeing may gain a forty 787 advantaged from January through April over 2013.   Boeing proclaims it will exceed 115 787 deliveries in 2014. Possible, but we get to watch just the same.

The 737 is almost a lock on delivering 42 737 a month. Counting a lead time of increased productivity it will do well in sending out to customers close to 500 737's.

Whatever slack from that number for the 737, will be back filled with a high number of 777 going forward. In Boeing's greatest aspiration, is to produce 100 777's.

The 747 Frieghter and passenger is slumping in 2014 and has only a couple more years contributing to the revenue line on the balance sheet. The 747 production may come in at 18.

As feeble as the 767 order book, Boeing is counting on the military contract to make up the slack in a couple of years with its order of 188 767 tankers, becoming ladies in waiting. Basically Boeing needs to Identify a 767 a special commercial application for its 767 during the next few years. It should produce a low cost 767 with enhancements for specialized charter operations.  Adding 787 commonalities on the flight deck. Enhanced wing performance and new engine technology could give the 767 a new niche. A cost of operation and low sales price may breathe new life into a niche equipment market, otherwise its a freighter and secondary market hauler of people in less than prime markets. However, the bottom line is that the 767 is limping along until the military stuff starts. I don't know how Boeing will count that military delivery in respect to commercial output.

End of 2014 there will be a dozen commercial 767 delivered. Below is the score card for Boeing:

Boeing Goals and To Do List: Updated June 9,2015

Winging it Forecast    2014 Boeing results 12 months later

737- 480                           485

767-   12                              6

747-   18                             19 

777- 100                             99

787- 115                           114

Totals: 700 units              723 Actual

It may come in somewhat higher, but I am a bit conservative with benchmarks like this 700 number.

Boeing is counting on the new 787 groove it has found, hoping it will do well, and the 737 is being mailed in as we speak. The 777 is also dialed in for production. Boeing must contend with customers unable to take delivery, because financing and market adjustments. This could impede that number during certain times of the year. The risk of a 787 pause is high if another battery smokes. The 737 could run out of parts unless that is already in the bag for 2014. Anyway the sales progression is totally disassociated from delivery production in 2014. The backlog is too big. Sales must find ways of selling languishing models like the 747 and 767. Boeing stock would surge from unexpected sales for the two models, as it would pleasantly keep production sharp. Eventually, the models will have to retire. Even the A380 will retire before it is profitable.

This outlook is a thumb nail sketch of Boeing's cash register for 2014. Enjoy the WAG and use it for talking points, if you are a sixty second manager or managing by walking by expert.

What's Up With Those Rascally Machinist At Boeing?

Well labor has made a point behind closed doors and its not the closed doors in Everett, Wa. It is those doors in Charleston, SC. The non union workforce is toiling mightily with 787 production. Whether it's a problem of floor leadership, lack of experience or an under utilized work resource, the IAM in Everett is thanking Charleston at this time for developing a respect from Boeing, for those rascally IAM machinist.  I once was being  trained as a machinist in the Seattle area in a Walter Mitty type fashion at the Evergreen CC. My goal was to become a Boeing Machinist. I enjoyed the training and the work. The education was directly tied to making parts and solving problems in the metals arena. Even with the plastic plane you need great machinist.

My life's calling took me to another stage into an Management type of venue, for medical care then onto Governmental auditing and management.  Both somehow made a relationship with building stuff and solving problems. So I quit Evergreen CC and got my degree in accounting and finance at a great University.

Boeing sees harmony, Machinists disagree in aftermath of contract vote 

Back to machinist, making great stuff, is the best thing a person can do for anyone, so machinist, I solute you! Now, because of Charleston, SC experience, the IAM union has made points with Boeing. McNerney has approach the NW with a reconsideration towards the IAM folks. Smart business for both, the IAM and Boeing. Don't lose your best company IAM, Boeing don't lose your best doers, the IAM.

They desperately need each other to build the 777X. This is not real estate clambering for location, location and more location. Its war with the competitors. Boeing needs its best for the best, No more Ideas of cost trimming on the backs of an untrained or trained workforce. Boeing can't gamble with boardroom snarkiness.

Opinion, is what I do, because that is what you get from a lifetime of running from actual volcanoes exploding, revolutionaries, and political intrigue. Mexico is another story as well as my Mount Saint Helens camp out on May, 18 1980, And so goes the more flaws doings things with the federal government, during my time with the US Department of the Interior. Mexico was safer than Interior, I knew who the bad guys were even though shots are fired often in Mexico. I have seen a fair piece of the "behind shut doors stuff".  The IAM is in a good position to deliver its promise. Boeing is in a good place to keep its hand clasped with that partnership. I am really glad the IAM did not jump off the "Cliff" and I am glad Boeing is smart enough to put pride aside and build airplanes in Everett again with the 777X project. Having said all these remarks, places making future Boeing observations into context. Boeing pretends to work for the stock holders and pretends to accommodate labor. They, in the middle, must satisfy both masters at the same time while building aircraft. Of course the third pillar will always be Government, a place where I once experienced it with great trepidation. Being a Boeing exec is like being an NFL superstar, your only get paid when you play. If your knees don't buckle and need surgery you play on.

The machinist in Everett are discovering its true value in the market place. Its value is better realized as Airbus builds and sells more airplanes.