The month of 2014 has punched the
clock for clearing the deck from 2013. 648 aircraft were delivered and Boeing
talks of going north of 700 delivered aircraft during this current year. They
have not provided the first Months numbers for 2014 but will do so next week. A
bench mark is delivering any 787 at all in January. They have delivered 4 and
several more customer deliveries will be booked for January. February is lining
up as a robust 787 delivery month. Without having any deliveries in 2013 for
the 787 during the first three months. Boeing may gain a forty 787 advantaged
from January through April over 2013. Boeing proclaims it will exceed
115 787 deliveries in 2014. Possible, but we get to watch just the same.
The 737 is almost a lock on
delivering 42 737 a month. Counting a lead time of increased productivity it
will do well in sending out to customers close to 500 737's.
Whatever slack from that number
for the 737, will be back filled with a high number of 777 going forward. In
Boeing's greatest aspiration, is to produce 100 777's.
The 747 Frieghter and passenger
is slumping in 2014 and has only a couple more years contributing to the
revenue line on the balance sheet. The 747 production may come in at 18.
As feeble as the 767 order book,
Boeing is counting on the military contract to make up the slack in a couple of
years with its order of 188 767 tankers, becoming ladies in waiting. Basically
Boeing needs to Identify a 767 a special commercial application for its 767
during the next few years. It should produce a low cost 767 with enhancements
for specialized charter operations. Adding 787 commonalities on the
flight deck. Enhanced wing performance and new engine technology could give the
767 a new niche. A cost of operation and low sales price may breathe new life
into a niche equipment market, otherwise its a freighter and secondary market
hauler of people in less than prime markets. However, the bottom line is that
the 767 is limping along until the military stuff starts. I don't know how
Boeing will count that military delivery in respect to commercial output.
End of 2014 there will be a dozen
commercial 767 delivered. Below is the score card for Boeing:
Boeing Goals and To Do List:
Updated June 9,2015
Winging it Forecast
2014 Boeing results 12 months later
737- 480
485
767- 12
6
747- 18
19
777- 100
99
787- 115
114
Totals: 700 units
723 Actual
It may come in somewhat higher,
but I am a bit conservative with benchmarks like this 700 number.
Boeing is counting on the new 787
groove it has found, hoping it will do well, and the 737 is being mailed in as
we speak. The 777 is also dialed in for production. Boeing must contend with
customers unable to take delivery, because financing and market adjustments.
This could impede that number during certain times of the year. The risk of a
787 pause is high if another battery smokes. The 737 could run out of parts
unless that is already in the bag for 2014. Anyway the sales progression is
totally disassociated from delivery production in 2014. The backlog is too big.
Sales must find ways of selling languishing models like the 747 and 767.
Boeing stock would surge from unexpected sales for the two models, as it would
pleasantly keep production sharp. Eventually, the models will have to retire.
Even the A380 will retire before it is profitable.
This outlook is a thumb nail
sketch of Boeing's cash register for 2014. Enjoy the WAG and use it for talking
points, if you are a sixty second manager or managing by walking by expert.
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