My Blog List

Wednesday, October 23, 2013

A-350-1000, Say Good Bye At Dubai

Boeing is collecting extreme interest during the run up for the Dubai Air Show this November 17-21.. A Break out performance is in the offing for the 777-8, and 777-9 announcments. Giving a coronation of this type as being a mini Jumbo King. Already there is talk that the 777-8 or -09 will eclipse the A-350-1000 numbers in one fell swoop with an order  book exceeding 250 for the 777X. The sudden shock and awe has already hit Airbus as they await the sentencing from a collection of customers playing jurors in this case. Will it be a life sentence of being second fiddle, or an ultimate death penalty seeking many appeals from its customers?



The answer awaits in Dubai soon. All Things 787, may want to expand its Blog title to All Things Not Airbus. Here is Uresh short list of prime customers.


"Lufthansa - 34 (already announced)
Cathay Pacific - 40 according to Saj Ahmad
Etihad - 30 plus another 30 787-9s
Qatar - 50 according to Saj
Emirates - 100 - 150"


This short list could go higher with a few more surprises. The count is at 254 realistic orders with maybe a few more. At this time it threatens and exceeds the A-350-1000 three years old + order book.

Boeing is carefully working with its customer which pleases the "launch customers" base. They have engineered a platform where customers can add configuration contributions as a launch customers. That is the reward for being that premier customer. Japan Airlines  has missed an opportunity with Boeing. Feeling slighted they choose 31, A-350's, over its long standing partnership with Boeing. Sometimes a guy has to do what guy has to do. JAL went rogue and will wake up in a different world. A no Guts no Glory scenario for JAL was a big blow for Boeing, but its hay- maker at Dubai is coming back this November 17th. An exciting Airshow for all the hype that is building for the event.  I look forward to this airshow for its particular marketing strategy from Boeing, as if it will send a strong signal to Airbus. The is the capstone of these last ten years. Does Boeing really have Airbus right where they want them? An Airbus that is stuck with its under technological A-350's competing inside the Boeing sandwich of 787 and 777's? Two hundred and fifty 777-X orders with 30 more 787 orders would suggest the deed is done, as in, Airbus is trapped with billions invested on a lost leader family of aircraft.

Harsh as it may sound, that is Boeing's true Dream, An A-350 catastrophe in the Market. The door is swinging shut on Airbus. Airbus committed and went deep into its play book and may have to change strategy mid-stream losing another 5 years in the market place. I don't think they will because the "industrial momentum"  for building an "Edsel" is too strong.  Airbus is on track for late 2014 for the A-350. Boeing delivered the 787 late 2011 and should have two hundred copies flying by late 2014. Airbus' softer technological approach promises to be error free at first delivery. They took a strategy of staying within the envelope of proven technology with plastic and electronics. It backed off from all electrical architecture. It back off from Lithium Ion batteries. Those where the key 787 problematic areas. Airbus included expansive use of old and heavier hydraulics instead of Boeing's penchant for saving weight with electrical. Boeing's wing design is advanced of Airbus. The 777 is getting a really advanced wing beyond the Airbus A-350-1000 wing. It is a composite wing that folds up and fits well in the Jet Way area. The 777  is a blended technology aircraft offering the lightest weight aluminium body of new technological metallic blends. All flight surfaces will be a plastic wing having a performance envelope similar to the 787 wings. The side stick A-350 will fly like an easy ride in the park. Thumbs up for Airbus. Boeing completes the 787 like commonality circuitry with the 777. All Boeing Aircraft will fly like the 777. Or better stated, the 777 will fly like the 787, vice/verse.

The Dubai crowd have been waiting too long for this moment. Many design issues are already retired from both the the prior 777 and 787 models. Engines continue to advance every day. By the time the first 777 will fly, more GE engine types will have been upgraded through PIP programs. The final GE engine placed on the first wing of a 777 will just be the first engine placed on the wing. Several more improved types will be in the process before first delivery. The end game is Quality Management 101, "Always improving".  The 777 GE-X Engine is always improving. Any bragging right from both makers is under scored with improvement.. Therefore, a claim for efficiency is a horse race with neck and neck outcomes. The real prize is the the best airplane from an operational and service point of view. JAL lost its nerve with the 787 in this category. A 95% -97% service record was too low for JAL, and eroded all the benefits of flying efficiently by sitting on ground refusing passengers when it was fixing 787 glitches.

The price to pay of new technology quantum leap when it expected a perfect flight record. The great expectation was traded in for a dumb down 787 knock-off having a A-350 name. The no pain no gain saying flies by the window at JAL Now back to the 777 case at Dubai.. JAL won't be there as a principal, but a spectator. They will enjoy the event, but will miss out on a back stage pass. There are some many check list items to discuss at this point, but it is import to know the big picture. The outcome of this show will signal the Boeing success or failure in its Airbus strategy. If they succeed by surpassing Airbus in orders at this event.  Especially surpassing the A-350-1000, then it wins.

Tuesday, October 22, 2013

Michael O’Leary, Ryan Air Enough Said!

My Favorite Airline Exec is at it again. He is venturing into the 787 realm of thoughtful possibilities. Today's article feature the rational of a great airline leader building an empire with the 737 NG (not Max). I have teased and  made sarcastic remarks about his wisdom not understanding his bigger picture of empire and now have settled into admiration for his character and sensibilities. Stupid me,  he should have a movie made about his empire building. I love his swagger and success.  Today a WSJ article comes out revealing a hint of O' Leary's empire:

Ryanair’s O’Leary Backs Boeing 787 for Long-Haul Flight



Budget Airline Chief Says Order Backlog Delaying Decision on Trans-Atlantic Service


Michael O'Leary said Boeing's Dreamliner is the right aircraft for a no-frills trans-Atlantic airline as he continues to muse about launching a new long-haul service.

Monday, October 21, 2013

Etihad, Emirates, and EEggads Its A 777X Market

First pitch from the mound is the 34 "wants "from Lufthansa for 34, then comes Etihad's fast ball before the Dubai Air Show and finally its a slider in for strike three for Emirates. Will Qatar be left on deck because of the opening inning from Boeing's pitching in the next three weeks?

Blogging is a beautiful thing you can guess and write it out and watch the results. and then comment later as if you are talking to your self in a phone booth while on the beat. My phone both prognostications mixed with facts.

Lufthansa 34 777X actual commitments
Etihad        50 777X guess-work copies
Emirates   100 77X guess-work copies

Launch Guess work total 184 777x

(does not include options)


UAE's Etihad sets stage for $50 billion of jet deals from Gulf

The Reuters links always tries to temper its reporting with a European edge. They do introduce the reality of an Airbus presence at this Boeing party. 

Before Boeing even introduces the 777X at this party the attendees have been carrying on in the back board rooms for some years. This is the formal engagements party. No decent Arab power broker wants people to know whats going on until they have the spot light.

Aside from this astounding number, the Dubai meeting will hedge its bet with 25 or so A-350 for Emirates. It will be a Boeing date not an Airbus crashing the party event.

To further quote:

"If confirmed, Etihad's order could pre-empt a widely expected blockbuster deal for 100 or more 777X jets from rival Emirates Airline EMIRA.UL, which has said it may announce a large order when it hosts the Dubai Airshow next month. The deals are still under negotiation and could change in size and timing, said the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to speak publicly. Boeing's European rival, Airbus (EAD.PA), is also competing for the business."

The uncertainty is,,, who gets the first step up to the microphone opportunity. Boeing keep your team in play and don't turn your back. There is another suitor hanging out. Be on time and be sharp. The late 787 and sloppy effort is still hanging in the air. A shower doesn't make people forget. I personally know this to be true.

A concluding argument would contain an unexpected event at Dubai, as in a surprise annoucement no one saw coming except the players. There could be another out of region announcement for the 777X or 787 in tandom. That may come from East of Dubai.

Sunday, October 20, 2013

The Case Of The Missing 787 Panel Is So Difficult!

Several days back I wrote about the missing panel from Air India's unidentified 787 is confusing, since the Indian Press gave a RED herring report on VT-ANA was the guilty airplane for dropping its panel on approach. Secondly there are no pictures on such piece yet revealed. Thirdly there does not exist a 787, VT-ANA ,as reported. Its just not in the fleet. A picture was provided of a hole representing the "missing panel" from a different jet that supplied the replacement piece moved to the damaged incorrectly number 787. It did not provide picture taken of the damaged aircraft itself of a hole.

AI blames engineer for Dreamliner panel fall, suspends him

Read more at: http://www.firstpost.com/business/ai-blames-engineer-for-dreamliner-panel-fall-suspends-him-1179645.html?utm_source=ref_article

Warning! Self promoting Link:

Have You Heard About The 787 Sky Piece Falling?


So What The Farce (WTF) is going on "Sherlock"

The Seattle PI Offers a Mea Culpa and Falls on Its sward

Its the second WTF in one article.

" In a post the other day, I suggested that this problem could have been the responsibility of Boeing assembly plant workers in Charleston, South Carolina, where VT-ANO was put together. An insider at the plant told me only using the wrong attachment screws could have allowed the plane to be delivered with the panel intact and then having it fall off in flight, which is how the incident was reported by the Times. 
Dreamliner+panel.jpg
The fact that this panel was removed on every one of 89 Boeing 787s to conduct a manufacturer-ordered modification of the environmental control system to correct a problem of condensation and poor drainage led me further to believe the news account that the panel came off a brand new 787. 
Early Friday morning Rabinowitz sent me a link to a story in First Post, reporting that an Air India mechanic has been suspended for removing the panel and failing to put it back. How a four by eight foot gaping hold was not detected during the pilot walk around prior to the flight is mystifying for me as it is for some of you who have commented on this story.






Having already relied on information that the event happened on one plane when it probably occurred on another, I'm giving this report a skeptical eye. It does remind me, however, that not all the facts are known. I will recap the underlying issues.

Air India and many other carriers in that country aresignificantly behind in safety relative to their size and importance in the global economy. Various audits and investigations into safety oversight have been going on for several years. Air India tried and failed towin membership in the Star Alliance, due in part to its inability to meet their standards for safety.Things have hardly improved. " (End Quote) 

Two witnesses are now on record as if something does smells like a Red Herring. Boeing is mysteriously silent and Air India is clumsy at best in blaming a cause. I went back to my Sherlock manual of fake reporting and found out we do not have the real story on purpose. I don't know how much Boeing has received concerning in-kind benefits for staying quiet or if Air India is getting a tank or two of Jet A to do what they do best, be incompetent.

Anyway if somebody could put the story in proper context, it would be much appreciated. Because a panel does not drop off unless improperly attached. It not a question of design failure or assembly mis-deeds, its far more into the realm of "total kaos with the ground operation". When "the taking a break whistle blows", and you have six more fasteners to attach, you go on break. Then come back as a supervisor tells you to go a sweep dirt somewhere while the 787 taxis for take-off minus six fasteners.

Boeing by now knows the answer to the mishap.  They will protect its customer with a plausible findings and recommendation that is taking so long to report. They are not asking its many customers to go out and spend money and time inspecting customer aircraft for an Air India stumble. There is no grounding effect coming or FAA bulletin, just another Boeing black eye for the team. Air India reminds me of the love-able Key Stone Cops.

Thursday, October 17, 2013

My Favorite Car Growing -up, 57' Chevy.

My 57' Chevy had fins, hand cranked windows and a distinct rumble of a small block 8. It was "sweet", even though it was pink and grey in the color scheme. Starting with an "inline blue flame six", or upgrading to the 283 cu.inch eight, and coming in various models like the sedan, station wagon or Belaire.  The chevy could attrach girls like the bees to the hive. Why doesn't General Motors come out with a modern 57 chevy with a 4.6 liter motor (same size as the 283 cu.inch rumble? Add all the modern fuel saving technologies and attrach girls to the hive like the old one did.



Let's step up this DREAM one more notch.  Boeing, why don't you come out with a new 57 Nomad aircraft? An all composite niche filler with cool looking tail fins, larger windows, and no rumble. The idea is to build an advanced technology new 757 plugging it between the MAX and the Dreamliner gap with sexy seating, a stiletto body, and a cool set of wings.  Attracting the savvy traveler on board with a fast and silent, awesome airline design. Which reaches beyond the MAX, and creates its own following going to hip places. The 737 MAX, maxes out at 189, and the 787 starts losing climb with a lower seat count at 210 and below. Why not a perfect 200 seat single isle 757. Made of composites with a right sized pair of engines of choice, for cruising "on the drag" on a Saturday night. Single isle is for romantics not liking a wifi flirt the second isle over. The romance is in the design, and its close and comfortable seating. With an average 34-38" pitch with 20" wide wiggle room. A 6 X 34 seat/row configuration is a logical choice for stepping down from the 787 base design into single isle CFRP aviation.

If Boeing goes for a Nomad(ish) 7-57 design, then I'm on board to Hawaii with my significant other. Or on a ski junket in Switzerland. Blend cool with techno in a single isle configuration, allows for efficiency, expanding comfort, and a smidgen more of style, making people forget about the Concorde from Paris to New York. In fact people won't want to get off this particular Neo classic 757, "new concept" design. So please fly subsonic, because I'm making my own time with the one I just met. Mach .85/.86 is perfect for a Trans- Atlantic crossing. Smooth flights are for smooth people cruising the Oceanic drag. Its a long 757 airplane, like those Hollywood stretch limousines in party mode with tinted windows.

One further caveat, Boeing please market this strongly,  as the corporate stretch limo for around the world. Also as the around the world classy "B" model for  "Business". A two hundred seat convention crasher.  Leather and all the trimmings arriving in stiletto fashion with its top corporate shakers and movers.

The C Model is for travel Customers who want to get from here to there in style on a single 200 seat isle. It is fast sleek and beautiful.

The "A"  model is for "All" things that the 757 is capable of doing. An interchangeable such as for military, freight or commuter capacity with interchangeable dynamics for a mission with a shorter take-off and landing capability guarantee. Make it the Swiss Army knife frame. A flying medivac one day, and a very nice passenger hauler the next day, after locking down Mobile seats that roll in during the evening and move on passengers quickly configuring to its next mission. From a special mission to general passenger service is just a click on the cell phone making it "a  make it so request". The Charter giant has arrived for football teams to bands and vacationers. Each seat could pop out in under sixty seconds and make room for a combo flight of special assignments and passengers or reconfigure for the commercial or military mission.

The "A" is an all purpose frame fitting the mission from high class to general transport over night. Going into the 200 person niche doing most anything with a high tech salon for its passengers. Not too big or small, but just  the size you need making it big or small within the hull constraints. Fast durable and efficient, having both the lap of luxury and the flexibly of the mission assignment. Aviation's first commercial luxury SUV of the air. A fully equiped company of 160 soldiers arrive in style to some outlying post mission ready and supplied.

Boeing must make this select niche perfect for both large and small operations with a multitude of possibilities to bring it back to life. And sell it as, "it can do what you want no matter the mission." in tight spaces or long flights. You have a plan, we have the plane approach for the 757. It has fins to make it cool.

57' Chevy Meet the 757-300 in Operation Condor.



Operation Condor Meet the 787-8 For Final Design Points



Boeing please get the three together to make it a "Chick magnet" in honor of the 57' Chevy. Please call it the Nomad and please let me fly on one for free when you make it? :)

Have You Heard About The 787 Sky Piece Falling?

No, the sky is not falling again on Boeing's pride and Joy, the 787-8. Its merely a piece falling off on final approach somewhere in India, near Bangalore.. A Very serious matter if flying at 40,000 feet.


Air India's latest Dreamliner has a gaping hole in its belly after the panel was taken out of it to be fitted in the other Boeing 787 that lost it on a flight from Delhi to Bangalore on Saturday. The brand new plane, parked in Delhi, is yet to begin commercial flights as it is awaiting certification from DGCA. Now it will be able to fly only after Boeing sends a replacement part for it.

Now you know the rest of the story. Peel a part off one Jet just delivered and preping for commercial service and move it to the aircraft in service that had the incident. Is this a normal thing going on for the flying operations around the globe?  The answer is yes and no. Parts do come off from time to time with no hull loss, where they land safely. In this case it landed safely. However, this a new design for a new aircraft that has had its share of mishaps in the design. Boeing knows exactly where this craft was built. The aircraft is numbered VT-ANA according to the Indian press article.

The known list for the Air India 787's

             Tail           Delivery  Date              Plant of Manufacturer
1        VT-ANH       09/05/12                           Everett
2        VT-AND       09/18/12                           Everett
3        VT-ANI        10/05/12                           Charleston
4        VT-ANK       12/19/12                           Charleston
5        VT-ANL       12/28/12                           Charleston
6        VT-ANJ        03/28/13                          Charleston
7        VT-ANM       06/26/13                          Charleston
8        VT-ANN       08/28/13                           Everett
9       VT-ANO       10/16//13                       Charleston         Supplying part to damaged aircraft

The mystery is complicated, because the reference provides a tail number that does not exist for Air India's 787 (VT-ANA) Looking at the list would expect it to be a Charleston frame that had the damage. The early builds came from Everett.

Panel falls off Air India Dreamliner midair, DGCA to probe incident

Article Quote confuses the issue by misnumbering the aircraft  tail number that was damaged as VT_ANA when there is no VT-ANA in Air India's 787 fleet. (see below reference from article.

"The missing part was taken out of a brand new Dreamliner (VT-ANO), AI's 9th B-787 which had landed here just days back and is awaiting certification to begin commercial flying, and taken to Bangalore. Only after this part was fitted in the aircraft grounded in Bangalore (VT-ANA) could the plane fly again after a delay of almost 10 hours. However, now the brand new "Christmas tree" VT-ANO is grounded in Delhi, awaiting the part from Boeing!"

Boeing, on the other side does not disclose the manufacturing origin for some strange reason, which leads me to suspect its a Charleston  issue that has had hold-ups in its delivery schedules over the summer  months. This may indicate a Boeing problem at the new plant. Just speculating again at this point. It seems to be strange little  press photos are available or concise Boeing statements that are compiled with inaccurate reporting from India, since the VT-ANA does not exist one cannot determine its origin.

Tuesday, October 15, 2013

Is The 747-8 Quietly Taking-Off?

Remember Boeing rolled out the 747-8i as an alternative for the A-380, at about the same time the 787 started flying away from Paine Field. Those big four engines quietly ply the airways from Europe to other destinations not making as much noise as Boeing would like. Quietly it hauls the freight the world around, and will be appearing in Korea as an adjunct hauler of persons seeking mass transportation in luxury.   The only thing missing is the intrigue from a name like the "Orient Express", is a full meal deal on tthe 747-8i  deck with Alfred Hitchcock.

The question arises, has the 747-8i quietly faded into obscurity? Or will it emerge as the Queen of the Skies once more? Boeing has spent billions working towards its Renaissance as the great lady it was meant to be. But, holy cow, Bat Man, four  fuel sucking engines on its wings. Two engines is now the new point of thrust when four engines likes alot of kerosene. What has Boeing done for you lately spews out of airlines boardrooms around the globe? The answer quietly surges forth, "quiet engines, and fuel sipping compliance, that matches and exceeds the A-380  per seat fuel burn. Boeing quietly strives to achieve better fuel performance out of the GE engines. The question before the aviation crowd, what does Lufthansa say about the 747-8i? What do its passengers say? The answer is in resent articles and its all good!

Boeing says it has reasons to be optimistic about 747-8

Please watch video in this King 5 Link

"Boeing saw five cancellations for its upgraded version of the 747, the 747-8.  But it also saw five firm new orders for an official net gain of zero.  But Boeing points out that it has 11 commitments from Korean Airlines and Air China, along with an unannounced customer that has never operated 747s before, all for the passenger version known as the Intercontinental.  

Airbus reports no new orders and three cancellations, but over time has received well over 200 orders for its giant fully double-decked A380 that typically seats 525 passengers in a three class configuration to 467 in the lengthened 747-8i."

Looking at this prospectus puts Boeing in the Jumbo game again. Only 58 seats under the Airbus with its longer frame, where it squeezes more economy out of the 747-8i frame. It fits in most dynamic and large airports. It haul freight in mass quantity in an efficient manner as it does passengers. This observation, pin-points the Boeing strategy for the 747-8. "Well played", could be the aviation aficionado remark of the year.  As the glamour for the A-380 rescinds into an expectation of just being massive, the 747-8i is carving out a significant niche in a new world. The follow-on orders will come about, after evaluation, as customers digest the performance and its on business plans. The next question comes in with a cliche query, What can we do with an old concept 747-8 verses the new behemoth on the block? Boeing makes this appeal, "We can do everything the A-380 can do with less seats to fill, in a Jumbo sort-of-way, and do it cheaper and more efficiently with great effect (succinct sales team talk)." You know that statement is couched nicely, but what does its primary customer, Lufthansa, say? 

We are doing things more efficiently and effective with the 747-8i and our customers love it. 

The A-380 is a showman's airplane, while the 747-8i is a "get it done experience", with a flair of comfort and quality.

Article Quote:

"So why is Boeing hopeful that more orders will come?   Part of the reason is that the first customer for the 747-8 passenger liner is reporting good results now that it's been flying a small fleet of the planes for a year.  In fact, executives with Germany's Lufthansa were willing to do a video testimonial for Boeing that's on Boeing's website

In it, one of Europe's top airlines, also considered by Airbus to be its best customer, touts the fuel economy, passenger amenities and cooperative working relationship in dramatically upgrading the long running 747 that first went into service in 1970. Lufthansa operates A380s as well as the new 747.

 "Based on the testimonials of our launch customer, that's really going to give us a lot of traction in the market place," said Bruce Dickinson, Boeing's Chief Project Engineer for the 747-8."

The door has been wedged open for the 747-8i. A handful of sales staff move out with the Lufthansa endorsement. This is a most important statement from a legacy customer that breaths life in the indomitable "Queen of The Skies". The relevancy endorsement propels the 747-8i forward more than all the new technology, engines and design features, even though they are key in its elongated life. Lufthansa owns the A-380, and knows in a side-by -side kinda of way, the comparative value for each competing type. Having made a commercial for Boeing on its web site is no accident. Its a validation of Boeing's effort for the 747-8i. It takes years for a customer to figure out buying a new type for its fleet. A customer may have to change its business footprint, plan, or operation, in order to buy an aircraft type. Now airlines are examining how could this 747-8i be a difference maker in its operation? How could its intrinsic value as a Jumbo beat the competition? Many of these questions are answered through Lufthansa 747-8i statements.

"In it, one of Europe's top airlines, also considered by Airbus to be its best customer, touts the fuel economy, passenger amenities and cooperative working relationship in dramatically upgrading the long running 747 that first went into service in 1970. Lufthansa operates A380s as well as the new 747.

 "Based on the testimonials of our launch customer, that's really going to give us a lot of traction in the market place," said Bruce Dickinson, Boeing's Chief Project Engineer for the 747-8.

But the story doesn't end there.  Another 747-8i has logged 300 hours in flight testing as part of a Performance Improvement Package (PIP) and is nearing certification.  The PIP program is designed to two things. One includes an upgrade to its General Electric engines boosting fuel economy additional  two percent.  Engines with the improvements are already arriving at the 747 flight line in Everett and existing 747-8 engines can also be upgraded.  The second upgrade is to put the plane's so-called "wet tail" to use.   The horizontal stabilizers hold additional fuel which Boeing says will increase range to 8,000 nautical miles. The freighter version of the 747-8 does not offer a wet tail option."


by GLENN FARLEY / KING 5 Aviation Specialist
Bio | Email | Follow: @GlennFarley
Posted on October 9, 2013 at 6:27 PM

Updated Wednesday, Oct 9 at 7:00 PM




In closing, King 5 reporting has opened up a very valid news article. The 747-8i is alive and well in Puget Sound and may be coming to an airport near you. The aviation Renaissance for the 747-8i is a key player in this part of history. The A-380 has an Achilles heal and probably Boeing can exploit that weakness with an accommodating 747-8i. The customers will write the next story for the jumbo. Boeing has done all it can for the Queen of The Skies, and they have done well enough to make the difference. Lufthansa agrees and does not hesitate. 

Monday, October 14, 2013

Boeing's Perfect Storm Sunk A JAL Deal

After taking a break during and after the JAL deal where it bought 31  A-350's. The shock of sinking has washed ashore. Boeing has done its damage control and is picking up the pieces from that announcement.  It is an announcement with years in the making. Japan Airlines a stalwart partner with Boeing for over 50 years abandon ship in the perfect storm. Like the movie of the same name type, "Perfect Storm", Boeing floundered the order dumping stars of its cast into the Japan seas. They all drown!  Now I have rested, and recovered from the epic tale of the sunk 787.  The story started a long time ago and was being chipped away, against its hull since the 2007 roll-out ceremony.

It starts with a customer who bet billions on sleepless nights, and anxious days over the Dream-liner. Japan Airlines has no more stomach for rolling headlines and giant rogue waves of publicity.

Three  Storm Fronts Collide Into The Perfect Airbus Order:

  • Five year delays the storm front
  • Glitches, Battery and grounding slams another storm front
  • 777-X aannouncement delay, places Japan out of that initial order line
Japan will not repeat another sinking feeling with Boeing's perfect storm sequence that engaged in the  787 project. They went to a "safe harbour", and now sit at the local Airbus Pub, sipping beer with Airbus. They are planning the next fishing trip. Too many sad stories with the 787 recalled while Airbus ordered another pitcher of beer from its bar.  You could hear a bleating waltz in the background.

Like all great stories true or fiction there are upswings and low points. Airbus caught JAL at a low point with its resolve in Boeing, and then got off the hook letting Boeing go and sink away. That is a common thought. Like all inspired stories that are true, there is a stunning turn no one can imagine. Did JAL make a mistake? Or did Boeing fail in its all new airplane? The answer will be played out during the next two years for certainty sake.  Like all airplane soap operas, there was a building separation between the partners. A growing mistrust that the relationship was not a good relationship after all. Maybe JAL should date other people in a trial, and find out if Boeing is the answer. Boeing kept bringing the candy and flowers to JAL's door step. Maybe JAL felt that Boeing was creeping them out in stock-er fashion, and was too nervous to go all the way with Boeing only to sneak out of it, by dumping Boeing when Boeing was having a good year!  Anyway the soap opera story is a captivating story. A person would enjoy a Laundry detergent commercial break for a kitchen resupply or take five for to maintain bodily functions during the commercial break. Silly as this seems, Boeing has been served by JAL in the Airbus affair. Jilted and shocked, this does convert into the typical reactions of a blown love affair over another suitor.

Boeing's emotions are secretly held. It will hold its head high and will comeback as many love affairs do in the movies, where the dropped partner shows up  making  a scene of how good or how worthy they are by some demonstration of valor or excellence. JAL may or may not respond. The November Airshow in Dubai is that event with all the marbles on the table with the 777--X announcements, which may explain why JAL is dating Airbus. The are angry they didn't get a invited to the 777-X Ball in Dubai and are snarling off with Airbus showing Boeing up a little (alot). After-all they were five years late showing up at JAL's house and spilled glitches all over JAL's outfit in a drunken, stumbling roll-out. Not only that, Boeing kept making promises all night long that it couldn't keep. Boeing made a fool of itself with JAL and now this smooth guy from Europe, we all love to hate, has come in with 31 roses and a delivery promise it can keep, because of the lower technology road it choose to take. The high technology road that Boeing took failed, regarding the mishaps and poor development strategy with the world suppliers were unable to deliver. Irony is that Japan's manufacturing delivered. Glitching was not a Japan embarrassment for being late on the date.

What is Boeing going to do to win back its first love in Japan? That is the next episode in this soap opera. Since I write script I will offer a draft script for this story. Whether Boeing will buy it or not, that is its decision. But writing is all I have for Boeing at this time. The scene opens up in Dubai with the Airlines of the world looking on. JAL is in the audience. Boeing stands up to the micro-phone and announces a new programme of reformation and quality. The 777-X character reformation is complete. Boeing is better and promises to never make those mistakes from lessons learned again. The crowd applauds. Boeing is really a good guy that had a rough spell. All manufacturers have its moments. Boeing's moment is of great advancement.  They are sorry for any inconvenience it has caused. However, this is about this new guy attending the airshow. A wink and smile is given towards the JAL booth as Boeing pats its heart. Orders are up next. Boeing has its dance card attached to its wrist as the Ball begins. In Victorian fashion, Boeing dance card has Qatar, Etihad, and Emirates with several more names listed on the card. (camera Close up , No JAL).

Boeing has a slight smile while thinking it took only 31 roses to win over Japan Airlines, when I'm now holding about 150 in one great bunch with the 777-X. Boeing is still sad, knowing how great that relationship has been and still could be.

The next episode will not be revenge or reconciliation, but it starts out as hope towards rebuilding the friendship. Boeing will be more careful on how it brags about its technological reality. It really can do what it promises, but is not in a smooth manner, and has worked on its social skills with being a smooth listener. Boeing may rope the horse with a finer rope, but often misses its target. Airbus stands closer and places the rougher ropes on the horses neck and rubs it while whipering in the ear. What Airbus whispered is what Boeing needs to improve on more than just technology, it needs to improve its catsing of its opening line.

Thursday, October 10, 2013

When JAL Made Me Cough My Cookies


Good Job JAL, I'm taking a week off with my therapist. Rehab has been wonderful. You know its so good that I want to write about Norwegian Air. You know them as the Vikings, that threw an Axe at Boeing. BUT, it isn't that at all like that. Norwegian is actuallly loyal and in love with the dreamliner, and not willing to even consider an A-350 or anything else, even when its troubled 787, is parked for referbishment.  The secret, shhhh, don't tell anyone is "Boeings Gold Care". Norwegian bought it! Wow, I never saw that one comeing, Gold Care. This means Boeing is responsible for the Norwegian's 787 problems. It means Boeing engineers, mechanics and ground team are staying at 5 star facilities making the 787 into a champ.. Did JAL,  do Gold Care?

The CEO of Norwegian Air, has recovered from his buzz kill when both of His 787's passed some problems in public. A tap on the shoulder from a co-exec and a whisper,"Gold Care and kippers at six tonight"!  Bjorn Kjos, Ceo Norwegian Air was resessitated for the next interview, and somehow this Blogger could go to physco therapy with a clear mind.  I now don't have to throw brick bats  at JAL or even ANA if they betray Boeing as well.

Here is why, Jet Star knows the score and so does Norwegian. Norwegian hedged its bet with Boeing Gold Care, having Boeing experts fixing its airplanes.   Here is my, "I'm on vacation link"




Norwegian Air CEO says Boeing changed 787 pump design


In this ariticle I found therapy for my shattered nerves.

  • A CEO excited about the 787
"I think the Dreamliner is going to be a fantastic aircraft," said Kjos, a former fighter-jet pilot."
  • An Airline with a Boeing solutions pouring forth
Boeing later said it constantly improves its planes after they begin service. "As part of that process we have made minor changes to the 787 hydraulic pump in an effort to improve the airplane's performance and reliability."
  • An abated heart attack when Boeing came a running
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The chief executive officer of Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA said on Thursday that Boeing Co redesigned an important part to fix a faulty 787 Dreamliner, revealing a more extensive reworking of the high-tech, $200 million (125.1 million pounds) jet than had previously been disclosed.
Bjorn Kjos told Reuters in an interview that Boeing created a new version of a malfunctioning hydraulic pump that controls flaps used to steer the plane as part of a two-week overhaul to fix problems with the jet. (Reuters interview:http://reut.rs/1adre8g)
  • The Happy Face Icon is allowed on Norwegian Air computers
:)
  • They could careless about the A-350
Kjos said he was not considering the 787-10, because that longer version has less range than the 787-9 model. He also was not interested in the Airbus A350, a competing plane that recently beat out Boeing's yet-to-be-launched 777X for a landmark order from Japan Airlines Co Ltd <9201.T> breaking the lock on JAL that Boeing has held for decades.
  • They saw JAL's move and thought, "Idiots" money , money, money- lost leader
Kjos said he wants to buy more 787s - including the forthcoming stretch version, the 787-9 - to allow passenger growth at Nor wegian Air that he forecast at 20 percent a year, up from about 20 million passengers a year currently. But he provided no details on potential orders or timing.
"Nothing can substitute a Dreamliner. I'm totally convinced that we made the right decision when we went for the Dreamliner," he said.
  • And then thought, "the 787- is money,money money, is what we make!"
Norwegian Air's forecast growth of 20 percent a year in coming years will require more 787s beyond the eight it already has ordered, with two delivered, he added.
The airline is considering destinations that include Chicago, Boston, Washington, D.C., Las Vegas, Seattle and Minneapolis. Those flights might not all go through Europe.
"We fly where people fly," he said, noting a huge demand - and competition - from Asia to Europe and the United States.
The airline is hiring flight crews based in New York and Fort Lauderdale, Florida, to allow more flights from those cities as it receives more Dreamliners in coming months.
Norwegian Air is due to receive its third Dreamliner in late November and a fourth early next year. Those jets will allow it to begin daily flights from New York, Kjos said.
Norwegian Air is the first budget airline in recent years to offer transatlantic services. It plans to fly to Los Angeles, San Francisco and Orlando, Florida, on top of its routes to Fort Lauderdale and New York.
Last year, Norwegian Air placed Europe's biggest aircraft order when it bought 222 planes from Boeing and Airbus. It has been one of Europe's most successful carriers, taking market share from SAS AB while moving outside its traditional Nordic market by setting up bases in London and Spain.
The airline said it can operate long-haul flights for 30 percent less than traditional airlines, mainly because of the Dreamliner's lower operating cost and the jet's ability to fly for 18 out of 24 hours, he said.

After the article is skimmed  through, my therapist said "I'm okay you're Okay" (I read the book in the seventies). The world is at least moving in circles each day. The JAL/Airbus tryist is a broken trust and friendship thing. **it happens sometimes. Boeing has to believe in itself and continue the fight, which I'm sure they were doing several months ago when they suspected they were loosing an order with one of its closest partners. JAL at least owes Boeing an explaination, because friendship  and trust means something in this day and age.

If no explaination is offered, other than a money difference, then Boeing has been excused as a trusted partner and that's that! Japan has just opened a door for Boeing to take its options forward. Shared technology is on the table as is everything else.

PS Therapy is overated.

Wednesday, October 9, 2013

Lurkers I'm Taking a One Week Break

Enjoy all past articles, I will be back on the October 15th, 2013 slinging mud.

Monday, October 7, 2013

Airbus Steals One Big Order In "Plane" Sight.

"Everett we have a problem", ANA  JALpulled a fast one and ordered some 31 Airbus A-350 in plain sight. What's worse for Boeing is that ANA  JAL. ANA another Boeing stalwart is ordering another like order for March 2014.


ANA Answers Airbus In April 2014


Remeber These Points at ANA

  • Airbus gives ANA preferred status as a customer, relating to pricing and delivery
  • Airbus gives ANA similar performance of high tech Aircraft that may compete
  • Airbus has a commonality plans for ANA pilot training and ground crews.
  • Airbus promise of no "teething" issues, (TBD) Lower tech approach is the bluff
  • Airbus has removed wait time risk in delivery aircraft of lower tech aircraft is more reliable
  • Airbus will "always", beat Boeing's offering and ANA becomes an Airbus  launcher
  • Airbus has a buy 10 get one free coupon punch card for preferred customers
  • Airbus has an XWB that iis wider than anything built... "well its just wider".
  • Airbus is running out of talking points, and timely is mentioned, and no delays and cheaper  and...
So what's up Scooby, The fox got into the Hen House and is making silly putty out of Boeing's Dream. Its not an "Abandom Ship moment", its more like a "All Hands On Deck Moment". Sneak attack on Tokyo is on and Boeing Sales team, well, took one for "Boeing's Sales Team". Randy Tinseth is back eating Poi in Hawaii.

A second observation from the ANA lead article Last month:

Now onto the Boeing's fight card of bullet points from the history files of 787:

  • Boeing reminds ANA of its most important relationship because it is really, important!
  • Boeing is has a more efficient and higher tech two generational leap in aircraft
  • Boeing acknowledges the Time commodity, but strangely enough, time heals all
  • Boeing reminds ANA that it has delivered on its promise; 20% fuel, 30% service(Delta)
  • Boeing describes the A-350 as being one generation behind the 787
  • Boeing has retired most of, or if at least, two generations of risks
  • Boeing listens,, and will respond, to all questions and concerns,
  • Boeing sees ANA as not a preferred customer but a valued partner
  • Boeing demonstrate value is better than the lowest price, even if  ANA uses a sales punch card with Airbus.
Did Boeing forget to memo JAL or at least take to an "extended lunch meeting", during a nigh time meeting. I don't have answers   why JAL is opting out for the A-350 at this junction, unless Boeing could not make appropriate restitution on the "Boeing 787 Teething Woes".

However I am not too depressed over this, at this time. Because I know heads will role if it is not addressed in a workman like manner. Message receive by all Boeing employees, " we all our in a fight for our livelihoods. With or Without Affordable Health Care Act on the line, our effort is on the  line since loosing a Marque customer like JAL for 31 A-350's on order directly centered in an order cycle. You can imagine JAL will not add to the Boeing order until after the A-350 is first delivered. So what happened? I am sure Boeing was working hard to appease JAL for all those glitches. The problem was Boeing was working hard to appease all those glitches. What a conundrum! Airbus could about the wonderful A-350 that has yet to be delivered over champagne while Boeing had more people in Japan working glitches than it has back in Everett, WA making aircraft. Norwegian Air's anger management seminar was ill timed for JAL emotional state. Don't get me started! Because there is plenty to account for leading up to JAL A-350 announcement. Its has had enough of the headlines and scared passengers. Sick Publicity, glitches and bad reputation is what Boeing offers with the 787 and JAL is the one abandoning ship and calling all hands on deck because they just completed that drill and it did not change the course for JAL.  Boeing as much as it wants to cannot control the glitches of almost 100 aircraft flying. They are now addressing ever little problem with a sense of urgency. They know they are publicly in trouble with its great aircraft because Boeing sold a lot press copy for the world's press. Some of it ridiculous, and some of it, rightly so. Non the less Boeing has a black eye and Airbus walks into Boeing's citadel and steals the show with the JAL order.

What will Boeing do? They are doing it starting about a few weeks back.

Damage Control 101:
  • Announcing a problem solving solution with hyper-active problem solving teams.
  • Management  and tracking of Glitches where Boeing Annice's  problems and solutions
  • Take control of the information spin from the press and make it a Boeing Story from the source
  • Press work is not privy to problems while freely expressing opinion style news, Team-up with customers on problems and press before a wedge is placed between customer , Boeing and the press.
  • Find out what the customer needs, during this time of "Teething"
  • New Airplane Results that are not puff and fluff. Airbus is eating Boeing's cotton candy during bad press times as Boeing replies with cotton candy responses. The talking Heads (Leaders) have to stop talking corporate style and talk like they are an advocate for its customers .
Omission 201:

  • Problems are true and correct and Boeing is accountable for the issues. 
  • They are not just valued customers, Boeing is sharing its Vision Statement
  • Omission is establishing an effective team that will cut the head off of problems
  • A perception exist that the problem's head has not been cut off.
  • Apology looses value when more apologies are expended.
  • Apology only stops when the problems stops but is a necessary omission

Losing a Partnership 301:


  • A lost order is a lost partnership
  • A Partnership is much like a marriage when one walks out, a surprise by the other signals the failure belongs to the other

Sunday, October 6, 2013

Australia's Jet Star Eight Taking On The New Zealand -9's Down Under

The revely tune has hit the Australian Aviation Industry. Jet Star/Qantas is receiving its 787-8 on Wednesday of this week. A 335 passenger mini behemoth, schedule to seat more than New Zealand Air's own 787-9 mid next year. From the talking points from a New Zealand based  news center comes these filtered summary for  the undeclared passengers  wars down under.

"STUFF

We want the airplane to perform better than it is today," he said.
"With any new airplane, you will get a lot of learnings as you see how the airplane's performing."
The battery problem had been solved by encasing it in a 3.175-millimetre-thick stainless steel box, with vents to the outside of the aircraft.
Loftis said Boeing took "full ownership" over another issue involving malfunctioning antennae from a supplier, adding: "There's only so much I can say because it is an active investigation."
Boeing's operations centre in Seattle has a dedicated team which monitors its customers' fleets of 787s.
Thousands of parameters are measured and logged, and any maintenance issues are immediately flagged with the airlines.
Alan Joyce, chief executive of Jetstar's parent company Qantas, was not fazed by the series of glitches.
  • "We're very comfortable this is an extremely safe vehicle," he said.
  • Joyce said Qantas had a team working alongside Boeing and its chief engineer had visited Australia to brief him.
  • "In terms of the reliability, every aircraft that's been introduced has had reliability issues at the start," he said.
  • "The 787 is the newest kid on the block - it's getting a lot more attention."
  • Jetstar has stolen a march over Air New Zealand, which is expected to receive the first of 10 of its own Dreamliners midway through next year.
  • The national carrier will be the first airline to take delivery of Boeing's 787-9, a "stretched" version of the original plane which carries up to 40 more passengers than the 787-8s and has a longer range.
  • The 787's main attraction is a 20 per cent improvement in fuel efficiency over similar sized aircraft, which is expected to produce huge savings for airlines.
  • It also boasts a range of new passenger comforts, including larger, electronically-dimmable windows, a lower-pressure cabin and higher ceilings.
Now New Zealand   Air has severe ants in the pants waiting these next 9 months. Its 787-9 jet will carry up to 290 passengers with  excellent combinations of room.  The spacious 787--9 will spread out some of its aircraft with 250 seats and a 41" pitch for upper class. It has the premium economy as well as economy, or a business class for those who prefer sitting in the air over sitting in office space. New Zealand air uses its airbourne real estate enticing the experience much like a Hilton motel. Jet Star will leave the "light on" much like Motel 6. The war for passensseger will be interesting. New Zealand will fly west. Jet Star will fly est with bucket loads of passengers.

"The Kiwi flag-carrier is the Boeing's launch customer for the 787-9, is a stretched version of the original 787-8 Dreamliner which can carry an estimated 40 more passengers than the base model 787-8 while also boasting greater range.

The Corner Address Is 100 Boeing Way USA

Looking at the delivery chart indicates a significant milestone. Boeing is at 92, 787's delivered! Just eight shy of the bench mark number of 100 787 deliveries. Today there are more 787-9's on undelivered status, than 787-8's that are to be delivered. Considering multiples of frames under assembly, and the post assembly frames awaiting delivery, by the end of the year about 125: 787-8 frames could be delivered in total for the program. Leaving a bulk of the frames, by a significant number, for the 787-9 to be delivered.


Model Ordered Delivered Undelivered

787-8 483          95                  388

787-9 406           0                   406

787-10 90           0                     90

The interesting point is that back in 2005-2006, Boeing had set projections of aircraft progressions in a following sequence:

The first 40 aircraft were deemed to be in production development. Refining the process with its builders and suppliers, while honing in its skills for building aircraft. The 787 process would achieve maturation in its development by frame 40.

What happened is history, many frames remain in a newly added on Boeing manufacturing campus for frame renovation, in the attempt of setting those frames right. What has now become referred to as the "Change Incorporation and Rework Center." Sounds like an institution for solving the mistakes made, not anticipated. The frame numbers are slowly dwindling is this special remedial class, and the frame numbers are rapidly expanding towards the Ln#150, benchmark. Frame 150 onward is supposed to be clear skies for the 787. A testament to that, will be the 787-9. Solving everything the 787-8 failed to do in its initial entry into service, with a 787-9 bounce back. That is a strong possibility this will happen with the 787-9, and will become the aircraft everything that the 787-8 wasn't. Boeing is scrambling to stop glitching as the final straws are put into place. Consistency is the key goal for Boeing with its overly complex aircraft. The 787-9 is the validation Boeing expects, needs and requires. A perfectly made 787, that the 787-8 could not be, but the 787-9 will be. The good news for the -8, from frame 150 and beyond, is that it will work just as good as the 787-9. The 787-8 early copies are forgotten because change incorporation has swept-up all the Boeing crumbs off the table, and is ready to party on dude from the factory floor to the airport terminals. One problem remains, that is the reputation issue of glitching.

By frames 40-100, Boeing would have the process mastered and optimal output achieved. In fact after frame 65 all aircraft come out the assembly door ready for flight testing and not sent to some kind of holding storage. After frame 100 any lessons established would be set in the 787 mold going forward. Finally, from frame 150 and beyond full maturity hits the program, whether it’s a -8 through the -10, the 787 ship is righted and sailing just fine beyond frame Ln#150. That is Boeing's dream for its customers. That is also why from corporate heads on down want the glitches to stop. Boeing is going to dog its suppliers, and its own production procedures for a million or so parts working as designed, or examining the assembly processes are correctly applied. No more parts gaffs, failed pumps or crimped wires. The press is eager to shame Boeing for all of the above problems. The questions I have not unlike the operating system jump for computers where a new OS does not meet customer expectations, because it’s beyond customer comprehension, does it mean it’s a failure?

My answer is no, since it becomes a journey of discovery for the customer and what it expects for a phenomenal invention. A caveman really likes his stick for digging but doesn't understand the implications of a steel shovel. That is the story of the 787. It advances aviation beyond the intrinsic understanding of 787 possibilities found within its skin. It will take time for passengers to understand what just happened on their flights. After reading about all those glitches, times 10 news outlets over one week for one light bulb lighting-up on one flight, makes passengers in India nervous not wanting to fly the aircraft. What makes the flying public nervous is all the attention given the routine on an un-routine aircraft. I too would pause and think every time an aircraft can't fly, "should I get back on?"

The address from above, suggest one thing, has Boeing turned the corner at #Ln100 Boeing place? The answer is definitely yes. By unit, 150, the press will have to shift and pick on the next aircraft up. The 787-9 will not have the 787-8 developmental problems, because problems have been addressed in the -8 and are fixing glitches on-the-fly. Therefore, I would expect the -10 will fly like the -9 as a seamless exercise of the 787-8 lessons learned on an entirely new airplane design that no one else will or could touch in the next 30 years.