Looking at the delivery chart indicates a
significant milestone. Boeing is at 92, 787's delivered! Just eight shy of the
bench mark number of 100 787 deliveries. Today there are more 787-9's on
undelivered status, than 787-8's that are to be delivered. Considering
multiples of frames under assembly, and the post assembly frames awaiting
delivery, by the end of the year about 125: 787-8 frames could be delivered in
total for the program. Leaving a bulk of the frames, by a significant number,
for the 787-9 to be delivered.
Model Ordered Delivered Undelivered
787-8 483 95 388
787-9 406 0 406
787-10 90 0 90
The interesting point is that
back in 2005-2006, Boeing had set projections of aircraft progressions in a
following sequence:
The first
40 aircraft were deemed to be in production development. Refining the process
with its builders and suppliers, while honing in its skills for building
aircraft. The 787 process would achieve maturation in its development by
frame 40.
What
happened is history, many frames remain in a newly added on Boeing
manufacturing campus for frame renovation, in the attempt of setting those
frames right. What has now become referred to as the "Change Incorporation
and Rework Center." Sounds like an institution for solving the mistakes
made, not anticipated. The frame numbers are slowly dwindling is this special
remedial class, and the frame numbers are rapidly expanding towards the Ln#150,
benchmark. Frame 150 onward is supposed to be clear skies for the 787. A
testament to that, will be the 787-9. Solving everything the 787-8 failed to do
in its initial entry into service, with a 787-9 bounce back. That is a strong
possibility this will happen with the 787-9, and will become the aircraft
everything that the 787-8 wasn't. Boeing is scrambling to stop glitching as the
final straws are put into place. Consistency is the key goal for Boeing with
its overly complex aircraft. The 787-9 is the validation Boeing expects, needs
and requires. A perfectly made 787, that the 787-8 could not be, but the 787-9
will be. The good news for the -8, from frame 150 and beyond, is that it will
work just as good as the 787-9. The 787-8 early copies are forgotten because
change incorporation has swept-up all the Boeing crumbs off the table, and is
ready to party on dude from the factory floor to the airport terminals. One
problem remains, that is the reputation issue of glitching.
By frames
40-100, Boeing would have the process mastered and optimal output achieved. In
fact after frame 65 all aircraft come out the assembly door ready for flight
testing and not sent to some kind of holding storage. After frame 100 any
lessons established would be set in the 787 mold going forward. Finally, from
frame 150 and beyond full maturity hits the program, whether it’s a -8 through
the -10, the 787 ship is righted and sailing just fine beyond frame Ln#150.
That is Boeing's dream for its customers. That is also why from corporate heads
on down want the glitches to stop. Boeing is going to dog its suppliers, and
its own production procedures for a million or so parts working as designed, or
examining the assembly processes are correctly applied. No more parts gaffs,
failed pumps or crimped wires. The press is eager to shame Boeing for all of
the above problems. The questions I have not unlike the operating system jump
for computers where a new OS does not meet customer expectations, because it’s
beyond customer comprehension, does it mean it’s a failure?
My answer
is no, since it becomes a journey of discovery for the customer and what it
expects for a phenomenal invention. A caveman really likes his stick for
digging but doesn't understand the implications of a steel shovel. That is the
story of the 787. It advances aviation beyond the intrinsic understanding of
787 possibilities found within its skin. It will take time for passengers to
understand what just happened on their flights. After reading about all those
glitches, times 10 news outlets over one week for one light bulb lighting-up on
one flight, makes passengers in India nervous not wanting to fly the aircraft.
What makes the flying public nervous is all the attention given the routine on
an un-routine aircraft. I too would pause and think every time an aircraft
can't fly, "should I get back on?"
The
address from above, suggest one thing, has Boeing turned the corner at #Ln100
Boeing place? The answer is definitely yes. By unit, 150, the press will have
to shift and pick on the next aircraft up. The 787-9 will not have the 787-8
developmental problems, because problems have been addressed in the -8 and are
fixing glitches on-the-fly. Therefore, I would expect the -10 will fly like the
-9 as a seamless exercise of the 787-8 lessons learned on an entirely new
airplane design that no one else will or could touch in the next 30 years.
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