Paris Has Arrived Before A Large Crowd Of Airplanes (Update)

The Arrival of Paris before a multitude of airplanes, airplane types and airplane hypes is on time. Boeing will dutifully plod through the week without much ado about something and slowly announce it way through the week following up with Randy Tinseth Journal etching out what is accomplished. An order here and there will make people wonder how this will play out when infact Paris and John Leahy are not the main show. The main show happened in the last six months, this is more of a cast party after a movie is released. The new announcements will cause beverage glasses to be raised and cheers, much like a Political convention in the US when it is announced, "The great State of Maine cast its delegate votes for candidate Smith or Jones".  The crowd cheers from the respective camps.

The Boeing camp has a strategic plan.  The Airbus Camp has a show to put on. The sandbagging of orders for Airbus will now come forth. The announcement of the The TEN will have its moment.  The X will wait for fall at the next venue at the show in Dubai.  So its going to be the TENS moment for Boeing and Airbus unloading six months worth of orders. However, Boeing flaunted both the Ten and the 777X before the show, so Airbus had to prepare two acts instead of one. They came out with the A320 orders, in the works for the last six months, of 150 units. The wide Body wars is a developing story.  Boeing has established a beachhead in France and will not let go.  The 777X is floating around the French coastline and has not been deployed yet into the battle.   A Qatar flanking movement is expected  Not much news on the Max yet, but it is well entrenched on the edges of Europe. In the Pacific theatre much is going on whether Paris arrived on time or not, the action is fierce and Boeing is working extra hard to out flank Europe again.  The A350 posses a formidable stopping point in airplane wars. However the TEN again keeps popping its head up in the wide body firefight.

General Ray Connors **** stars, has made his claim that the 777X can compete and will win in the wide body battle. The secret is in the "Wings", forget plastic when its all about wings, engines and things. That is Boeing's engineering battle cry going into Paris for the 777X. By fall the summer campaign will be in the books and the battle will have moved to the desert countries. The 777X will be the darling of the Ball at Dubai. Colonel Mike Sennett, has stopped the Battery complaints and marches forward through engineering restoring the crater left by those "bad" batteries on the airstrip. Okay Major General Tenseth** where are those Max orders. They are ready to roll, so its coming to Paris?  This isn't going to be won in one week in Paris, its going to be won with multiples of flanking actions, feigns, and performance. Almost there with the letter "F" but I digress with no alliteration.  Back to making sense out of the rumble in Paris. Just like a prize fight, round one was some jabbing and moving, then the bell.  Day Two should have some Jabs and false steps saving the best towards Thursday. That is when a better intent is disclosed how the last six months have been.

I am still predicting 150 Tens once the "Announcement", To Authorize (Declaration Of  The TEN's War), are found in the categories: Orders, Commitments, and Options (OCO).   Now I will call order book packages of OCO's.

787-10 Box OCO score=102

SIA=30 C's/Turns into orders once announced
GECAS=10 C's/Turns into orders once announced
ALC= 30
United=20
British Airways=12

Total= 102 or OCO's

Boeing debuts 787-10 with $30 billion of orders

"According to Reuters, the buyers are Air Lease with 30 planes, GE Capital Services with 10, British Airways with 12, Singapore Airlines with 30 and United Airlines with 20. United Airlines is expected to received its first 787-10 in 2018."

With plenty of suitors and no Launch customer officially announced as of today, the TEN is only 48 from my own sales objective to launch at 150.

Now I need to rest until tomorrow's observations, enjoy reading about the airshow and keep it in perspective. There is more going on behind the scenes, than flying overhead.

Here Comes the 787-10

Launching the 10 has been long awaited. Recently, I speculated they would launch when 150 orders where in hand.  However, today's article speculates about 100 orders are in hand for the Paris Air Show. I still believe it will be more and above the 150 I first speculated. Perhaps options will shape it up north of 200 orders on the books.

-10 Has A Launch Customer For The Paris Air Show Prior Blog

AIRSHOW-UPDATE 1-Boeing to launch 787-10 with $30 bln order haul

The reporting must adhere to known facts and quantities and not give into ones own inclinations and instincts for the situation. I put a 150 order block number for the 10 launch based on loose risk calculation, and profitability goals a board would consider for a launch number. Also timing is critical and could move launch date and place of announcement without that golden number of 150 as an absolute for the -10. Several customers are in the wings of decision making, since they would have its own numbers, time and place considerations in play and Paris may not be that moment. 

However, the -10 will launch at Paris with caveats that lead to the arbitrary 150 orders, whether it be in the form of commitments, options or announced orders, remains for the Paris Air Show podium and microphone. The A350 is a planned distraction by Airbus, in PT Barnum's eloquent style.  The bean counters take over at the big show inspite of crowd approval for flyovers of newly minted aircraft. That's why people go to airshows is for flyovers, food, and featured displays. The bean counters want to hear how much money can we make stuffing 400 people into an airplane that will fly 8000 miles. That's where the money sits and the suits sway in awe of hearing maintenance cost are reduced by 30%. "My plane can fly 11,000 miles on a load of fuel". "My airplane can land at any airport in the caribbean flying from Nome Alaska with a load of rich Eskimos." The bean counters are shopping reality. The airshow crowd wants entertainment. Boeing seeks out bean counters, and Airbus seeks crowd approvals as the World's Biggest Airline. This spoken from the mouth of ringmaster Leahy, at the center ring in the big top. This year's show features who has the coolest wing, the gull like wing that flexes above the cabin or the new one with a scimitar rolling tip to cut drag and gain lift.  The engineers are trying really hard to find the ultimate wing package while searching for the El Dorado of aviation. I believe Boeing holds the edge at this point. Engines are a big point. Somehow Rolls Royce and Airbus claim they have given Airbus the best engine, even better than Rolls Royce and Boeing. Wait! That doesn't sound right, how could that be? Remember though Boeing has a  GE card yet to play since Rolls was removed from the 777X  considerations, and suddenly they have the best engine on the A350. Man this is getting complicated like personal relationships on soap operas.

Paris is full fun, foolery and fantasy in the summer. Just go with the carnival crowd and enjoy flying around the grounds. Remember your hotel bill outperforms Rolls Royce any day.

Dance Card Below:

Juggernauts, Jugheads, and Juggling

I like alliterations to make a point. It summarizes  where you want go with a topic in a provoking manner. The big ideas are now on the table with two roads traveled. The Boeing 787 program and Airbus A350 who has thrusted into plastic airplane building. There are three categories up for grabs in this winner's take all contest of aircraft orders, production and performance. Each idea has an overarching approach, defined constraints, and challenges that temper the product. "A test of fire makes the product, oh so fine". So each manufacturer has employed the risk and reward approach from the boardroom down to the factory floors and its suppliers.  Keep that in mind as you proceed through this gauntlet found in a tale of two aircraft giants.

The Boeing Journey From The Start

Boeing's overarching mission, accept risks as the game changing element needed to supersede all competitors. Clear back in "003", Boeing began a revolution in commercial aviation by embarking on an all new way to build the highest efficient aircraft of the century. Called, "The Game Changer"(GC), or simply the 787.  These risks not yet proven or mitigated or retired simply made the GC a wild bet for winner-takes-all, kind of change management approach of beating its main competitor, Airbus, who had not figured on going in that direction at all.  They blinked and they are about to fly its first rendering of an all plastic airline, the A350 this Friday. Boeing's game changing big picture altered aviation's direction in a big way. It took Airbus about 4 more years to respond and I'll explain that direction in the next paragraph. However, Boeing went after it without holding back on ultimate technology and change. The only constraints were time, sensible progress, and money. The big picture was really big, and Boeing has now waded through ten years of time to get to this point. Even though Airbus was in the denial phase of planning, they secretly pushed in Boeing's direction to counter.

The Airbus Journey From The Finish

Airbus did not take an overarching mission approach, since it had time to make up, and strategically used more off-the-shelf technology to bridge that time gap.  Its mission was defined by Boeing. If Boeing goes off the deep end, don't follow suit, build a plastic airplane and build it bigger. They proceeded to "borrow" technology  with lower risks as they went for panel fabrications with CFRP, and used Rolls advanced engine building progress from both of Rolls Royce and Boeing's engine programs. They will have good engines and efficiencies but with lower program risks. The theme here: is to build on the fly with proven advance technologies, and run down Boeing quickly, as they were grabbing market share on plastic airplanes. Don't over arch on advances, let Boeing struggle with innovation and catch Boeing at the finish line. Is this year's Paris Air Show the finish line? Airbus stayed with hydraulics technology, that had weight adding fluids, pumps and pressurized lines. They stayed with a more conventional looking airframe that would accommodate plastic panels, not barrels. Airbus built bigger, and it stuffs the airplane with customer comforts giving the traveler the feel of the latest and greatest in aircraft travel. This is done through the illusion of new features over laying conventional  aerospace architecture not including the  all new plastic parts.

Boeing's Millstone  Of Risks: Marshalls Its Resources, Uses Time And Exhausts PR With Delays.

Boeing high risk penalty has caused a bumpy halting journey to deliver almost 60 airplanes. That weighs  customer patience and caused Boeing to use extended political capital, as well as money to arrive at this years Paris. The high risk road has brought Boeing within Airbus's sights, what Boeing is counting on is that its state of the aviation advantages will out perform Airbus for many years. The recent electrical problems clearly state this strategy that it must not lose any technical ground  to Airbus less energetic advances with  the A350, hence staying with the Lithium Ion battery at all cost.  The battery is the high risk/high cost example of exceeding Airbus. Where Airbus sought the old version of the Nickel-Cadmium battery solution
that weighs more and is lower performing with lower risks. Boeing's all electric design has not been tried before, which is another aviation innovation which Airbus refused to travel down. Boeing used electrical wires to electrical motors without using bleed air by-pass to move flight surfaces during and before flight. All this computer operated systems allows Boeing to fly the most sophisticated and highest performing airline today, in the world. Airbus brings a plastic counter part that it say it can fly better with hydraulics, Rolls Royce Engines, and an all plastic body. The Friday test flight will start to answer many questions of who is right. Many believe the long road belongs to Boeing and the short road pulls Airbus just several hills back on the journey. That is why Boeing can't, and won't fall back on any of its newly formed risks through its innovation.

Airbus Shorter Shorter Way Strategy Will Fall Short 

Airbus as mentioned above, illustrates lower innovation and lower risks, promising no Boeing like delays or problems. That is true for the most part. The testing phase is just beginning for Airbus. If one could measure all the differences for the aircraft in a comparison you would see two completely different models and strategies on building Airplanes. Boeing started with a overly optimistic pulse and Airbus came in with an anemic blood type. The race will be decided by the longest endurance stamina.

Airbus's hopes to  become the juggernaut.

The A350 Is Ready For Flying.

The A350 is going to debut in test mode on Friday. I welcome this offering as a new technology engine will power a very formidable aircraft. It will fly with or without parachutes on boards. This flight is just before the big show in Paris and it hopes to steal the Buzz from this year's air show for Paris. They may just do that with a successful flight over Paris.  The A350 will compete against Boeing's family of aircraft. The initial test may bend customer appeal towards the A350. However, as always the devil is in the details. The details are coming forward with actual performance, testing and no snags!

Simply stated, that have applied extra resources so they may avoid 787 like issues and steal attention towards shortcomings. Today's Boeing 787 has a non starting engine and would like very much that the A350 would have a no starter on the Airbus A350. That isn't going to happen. Too much preparation has gone into this first flyer. What will be critical is that it performs as engineering calculates, meeting a robust dynamic approaching or exceeding the 787.  It remains to be seen what it will do, but John Leahy, the showman, is loving this first flight opportunity before the big show. Checking it twice is old school. They have been preparing for this moment for along time without divulging any kind time schedule that they would regret, avoiding Boeing's embarrassment of over stating flight by fall of 2007. That particular first flight claim was and remained an impossibility.   However, Airbus, by announcing design changes throughout its progressions never set unrealistic expectations for its customers. Boeing should of made, sensible projections abouts its first flying aircraft, when all deviations for development, parts, and suppliers were resolved before announcing a set a date for first flight. Corporate pride leads to over promising and establishing un-achievable mileposts for the satisfaction of board members and its advertising. Airbus has now comes to this point without hanging its neck way out on over promising points.

It now is coming to a head on this first flight at Paris. The Buzz won't be about paper airplanes and paper orders but will be on the Airbus A350 flying overhead at Paris. The risk is in the moment for Airbus not in some unfilled promise stretched out over 3 years.

First Time From NOOK Test FLIGHT

Okay, so I m  an newbie  on on my nookie. And this is a test.  Thanks, for this indulgence.  The OCD Ocillator  is on ,check.

Today's Big Boeing 787 News Is Singapore Airlines (SIA), Engines From Rolls

SIA have selected its 787 Engines from Rolls Royce. A Victory for the engine builder from England. Its a real good selection, performing 99.9 percent of the time at an optimal level. The SIA aircraft and engine selection tells me that this 787 Aircraft order has been in the works for a very, very long time. Once Boeing had the battery problem was well in-hand, and thrown into the glitch trash bin after several months. The A350 order announced simultaneously with the 787-10 order demonstrates SIA is concerned with a guarantee of delivery on time. The A350 is well on its way for first flight, and if SIA wanted to bundle its order with all Boeing, it decided to hedge the unknowns with a split order. They are a reliability conscientious and a scheduled airline for its  business model. SIA is battling mass airline transportation opportunist in the Southeast asian region, and its existing networks throughout the world. Think of Lion Air's recent gigantic orders. It is critical for SIA that they receive a timely reliable product, to counter these aircraft infusions in the area. They are at the crossroads  in the asian markets and will take a controlled aim for its inventory

Insight into SIA's Strategy Article

"Its unit, SilkAir, has an order for 54 Boeing 737s and is awaiting delivery of one Airbus A320. Scoot, the long-haul budget airline, has an additional 20 787-900s on order.

"We don't compete by having the most aircraft on order with manufacturers," SIA spokesman Nicholas Ionides said. "We compete by providing the highest quality products and services over an extensive network."

That sums up SIA's strategy perfectly and rolls back to the Rolls Royce decision perfectly. Timely and reliable orders are on the plan. It is not to say that the GE engine for 787 is in anyway inferior, but more of what expertise and trained knowledge does SIA have for the RR engine maker.  Four Billion for the Rolls package on the 787-10 is probably a great deal in the bigger picture plan for SIA.  They can't afford the time or money to retrain service personnel for a completely different engine maker.  SIA has 70, A350-900 on order. Those replacement aircraft for its older inventory will have  an army of maintenance people servicing those aircraft.  Now it makes sense of how SIA will expedite orders towards it infrastructure of service resources.  The 787-10 with Rolls engines fits in SIA's strategy,  "We compete by providing the highest quality products and services over an extensive network." It fits best   for how SIA is currently situated.  That is why the 787-10 goes to Scoot, who is going head to head with Lion Air and others in the region. 

Boeing was smart to have two engine makers for its 787 family of aircraft, that is why SIA could choose the RR for its newly requested 787-10, Otherwise it would have been another Airbus order.  Boeing got its foot back in door with  having these two fine engine makers for customers to choose. This value for customers makes Boeing smile.

Rolls Royce Trent 1000

Boeings 737 Scorecard for May

Boeing is robustly following through with orders on its 737 program in total. As established in an earlier feature, it has become a Juggernaut of orders. Here is Boeing's own order scorecard.

Order Date	Customer	Model Series	Orders
07-May-2013	KLM - Royal Dutch Airlines	777-300ER	1
13-May-2013	Southwest Airlines	737-800	5
13-May-2013	Southwest Airlines	737-MAX	30
21-May-2013	SWISS	777-300ER	6
08-May-2013	Turkish Airlines	737-800	20
08-May-2013	Turkish Airlines	737-MAX	50
21-May-2013	Unidentified Customer(s)	737-800	40
07-May-2013	Unidentified Customer(s)	737-900ER	2
21-May-2013	Unidentified Customer(s)	737-MAX	61
30-May-2013	Unidentified Customer(s)	737-MAX	5
06-May-2013	Unidentified Customer(s)	777-300ER	2
13-May-2013	WestJet	737-800	10
May Total			232

By the numbers:

NG- Seventy-five 737-800 (75)

The Max: One hundred and forty-six (146)

Total 737's                                      223

So lets look at producing 42, 737's a month.  That sales book for May extends the Productivity Queue over five months with one month of orders. The unidentified types may be announced at the Paris, which includes a number of 66 unidentified MAX.  TUI's order of 60, may be the one added, as unidentified, since the unidentified went up on May 21 by 61, about the same time TUI announced it is purchasing 60 Max's. Paris may clear that up those unknown assignments, if they are "mentioned" at the market place.

June in Paris, may add additional 737's that are not on the book yet, by name or unidentified, announcing additional sales for June not included in the unidentified May orders.  

What is significant is the 75 added to the NG -800 program.  This is an additional two months of production for that type of product. If Boeing wants to extinguish the backlog of  737-NGs anytime soon, it is happily adding on two more months of productivity at the back end of its order book. This forces a greater reliance on Charleston to kick start the Max program. Orders will continue to trickle in on the NG as those new orders bridge the inventory gap for airlines until the Max starts delivering out of Charleston. Boeing then will retool Renton Washington plant when it finishes the "gap orders", currently trickling in until the Max is flying out the door.  Then Renton is able to retool and supply Asian and Pacific markets with the MAX.            

Qatar's Smoke and Fire, Akbar Al Baker

Last December 14, 2012, Boeing was in Qatar's performance cross hairs for the 787-8 program. Today they reap the sour grapes of that relationship with Mr. Akbar Al Baker. Qatar will not be a 787-10X launch customer.  This is not disturbing, but understandable for Qatar to hang back. Please refer to my December 14, 2012 link on LiftnDrag  (and its updated comments in Blue font), tying that article with Qatar's backing- off today as a 787-10x Launch customer. They are tired of Boeing's delays on its new Aircraft, until it settles down another year, when all the new airplane problems are solved.  This is not to say that Boeing is building on a continuation of problems with the 787, but it is more on a strategic shift by Qatar, of standing back for a period on the -10, and wait for the "new airplanes" inappropriate burps to cease. They (Qatar) cannot and will not allow anymore disruptions concerning the 787. Therefore a strategic resting period until the -9's and the -10's prove themselves out on somebody else's US$ dollar.  They currently have enough -8s on the order book to keep building on the future.

Boeing better heed Mr Al Baker's admonishment, from December 2012, during a time where the battery fires and grounding hadn't occurred yet.  I can only imagine his angst during office hours for these last four months of delays.

737 Increases use of Titanium on Its Engine.

Back in the day, a long time ago, my uncle pioneered with Titanium, at Lockheed Skunkworks when developing the SR-71.  He recounted to me, "they had no manual on forging Titanium panels, and attaching it to the airframe. Many years later after his career on the SR-71 became history, I went to a aero space museum in California to see one of these birds that he had help design, make, and fly. I didn't kick the tires, but I slapped the titanium hull shaped like a hydroplane hull. It sounded like a cardboard box that couldn't hold the pressures, heat and power of a Mach 3+ aircraft.  A revolution had arrived and then it faded as it aged. But the technology born out on scraps of papers, and trial and error, remained into the space age. Titanium has become the metal of choice in commercial aviation. So without further waxing on about the SR-71 lets talk about the MAX.

But First a Salute To The Titanium Bird

So the Max takes on advancements from the SR-71 with new titanium engines aspects.

More Details on 737 Max Materials Emerge   "Article reference link"

"A switch from composite to titanium for the inner walls of the thrust reversers on the Boeing 737 Max has allowed designers to increase the fan diameter in the airplane’s CFM International Leap-1B turbofans without a proportional increase in the size of the nacelle. The relatively minimal growth of the nacelle means Boeing could keep its original plans for coping with the small amount of ground clearance margin available while optimizing thrust levels, explained 737 Max program vice president and general manager Keith Leverkuhn."

So the the old 737 CFM engine is not your dads CFM engine. Its a pouring out of technology on the 737 Max structure and engines. The horses aren't spared in this effort to Maximize the MAX.

“We tailored the engine to the wing [and] we tailored the engine to the thrust that we need to be able to deliver the combination of fuel burn and range,” said Leverkuhn, who took over as Max program head for Bob Feldman some two months ago, when Feldman moved to the 777X.

Another recent advance involved what Leverkuhn described as a “sculpting” of the engine inlet to maximize laminar flow. Those and other refinements allowed Boeing to raise the target range of the 737 Max 8 some 500 nm beyond that of the 737-800, to 3,620 nm, as well as meet Chapter 14 noise requirements. It also now expects the fuel-burn advantage to reach 13 percent. Previous estimates placed the benefit at 11 percent. “And I would say there is pressure for even more as we learn more and more about the engine and more about the airplane,” said Leverkuhn."

So Boeing is in the sweet spot to substantially challenge the head started Neo.  Whose designs are pretty much set in cement. The following considerations from the article tell out what advantages the Titanium influence will have on performance, maintenance and efficiency. The Max with a 13% fuel burn improvement doesn't just stop engine improvement. Combine this configuration with wing and body improvement. A 13% improved engine is then mounted on an optimized body, where Boeing has been playing with for over forty years. The have the 737 aero science down to the rivets. Stuff this aircraft with lightweight optimization and you get an over achiever on maintenance, consumption and comfort. The final erasure and sketch is about here so it can freeze and build.

SR-71 engine like stuff:

• Another recent advance involved what Leverkuhn described as a “sculpting” of the engine inlet to maximize laminar flow. Those and other refinements allowed Boeing to raise the target range of the 737 Max 8 some 500 nm beyond that of the 737-800, to 3,620 nm, as well as meet Chapter 14 noise requirements. It also now expects the fuel-burn advantage to reach 13 percent. Previous estimates placed the benefit at 11 percent. “And I would say there is pressure for even more as we learn more and more about the engine and more about the airplane,” said Leverkuhn.
• Although titanium weighs somewhat more than the composite material typically used for the inner wall, the need for insulation blankets to protect the composite from the heat generated means the traditional combination weighs more, explained Leverkuhn.
• The titanium option will also result in less maintenance, he added, particularly given the increased heat exposure resulting from drawing the inner wall closer to the engine to minimize the size of the nacelle.
• “A titanium inner wall is unique in the industry,” said Leverkuhn. “However, we've had some experience with it in military applications, so we've taken some lessons learned from them and bring that technology forward on the Max.”
• Now scheduled to reach firm configuration in July, the program has already passed through the midpoint of its so-called long-lead releases as part of the detailed design process, added Leverkuhn. In short, although the program remains still relatively early in the development process, all evidence presented by Boeing appears to indicate a clear path toward certification and entry into service as planned, in the fourth quarter of 2017.

Bundles of 737 Max

What's going on with everything not 787 or 777X. I am remiss and forgotten to say that the 737 Max has a sales Juggernaut.  So here comes some more stories developing.

TUI Books Over $6 Billion in Boeing Jets. "reference article"

Okay that means 60 aircraft with another 50 last month from an undisclosed customer terms.

Boeing's May Orders Listings

Orders through May 28, 2013	737	747	767	777	787	Total
2013 Net Orders	367	-2		21	42	428
ALC	5			10		15
All Nippon Airways	4					4
American Airlines	100			1	42	143
Business Jet / VIP Customer				1		1
Cathay Pacific Airways		3				3
GECAS	4					4
Icelandair	16					16
KLM - Royal Dutch Airlines				1		1
Qantas	5					5
Sberbank Leasing	12					12
Southwest Airlines	35					35
SWISS				6		6
Turkish Airlines	70					70
Unidentified Customer(s)	155			10		165
United Airlines	8					8
WestJet	10					10
2013 Gross Orders	424	3		29	42	498
Changes	-57	-5		-8		-70
2013 Net Orders	367	-2		21	42	428
	737	747	767	777	787	Total

So does this mean these 60 are buried in the unidentified customer(s) count or does TUI open up a line count for itself pushing the 2013 count 427 Net orders?

Because the month of April had this number 50 which isn't 60.

Order Date	Customer	Model Series	Orders
26-Apr-2013	Business Jet / VIP Customer(s)	777-200LR	1
23-Apr-2013	Unidentified Customer(s)	737-MAX	50
April Total			51

The total report shows these numbers:

Model Series			Orders	Deliveries	Unfilled
737-600			69	69	-
737-700			1310	1091	219
737-700BBJ			115	111	4
737-700C			17	15	2
737-700W			14	14	-
737-800			4162	2867	1295
737-800A			40	23	17
737-800BBJ			21	18	3
737-900			52	52	-
737-900BBJ			7	6	1
737-900ER			528	166	362
737-MAX			1235	-	1235
737 Total			7570	4432	3138

Where the reporting states this:

"The jet builder has reported nearly 1,300 orders for the 737 MAX since introducing the new version in 2011."

So 1235 Max units + 60 makes 1295 MAX on the books not yet reported on the Boeing site.

So with further announcements coming it should be another MAX year.