All Quiet On The Boeing Front Pre Paris Lull

News has settled into a routine that is no longer keeping one  hounding the press wires about everything from  737-Max to Scram Jet technology. No blended wing bodies or any kind of new item in play. This quiet is because of Paris. All the glad handing troops are loading travel bags, swag bags and laser pointers  into the travel kits. A piece of news just to keep the 747-8 in the discussion is this "Item" about the Cathay Pacific 747-8F . Yes there is that quiet program called Freighter Lines, that went into slumber during the great downturn of world economies. It may reemerge at Paris in the form of 747-8F orders.

Not many seats bolted in on these aircraft or meals served, but money is to be made hauling unglamorous freight around the world.  Boeing was smart to lay up with the 747-8F, which can and will serve the world ably. The companies that have its foot in the Boeing door, won't disappoint with the efficient and modern freighter.  The 747-8F case was made when traffic was down and few takers were in Boeing's sales room. The talking points from Boeing has never stopped since, and economic recovery is awakening global demand. Now is a good time to put a reservation in for this freighter, since the last few years have shown what this aircraft is capable of, and how risks and retirement of newfound issues are laid to rest.

The commercial passenger service model is overshadowed by its huge competitor, the A380.  When that market goes tilt on airport capacity, the 747-8 will be still around, and in production because of that freight card in play.  Boeing could sell another 150 to 350 of this aircraft over the next 10 years.  The next big Boeing Aircraft is just floating in design world for ten more years, aging to perfection as technologies mature and are refined for that design jump.

Seeing The Order Book Through Paris Sized Beer Goggles

Boeing has not reported much of late from its order book. I get the feeling they will pull a John Leahy special (ala Airbus), and announce solid sales for the 737 Max in a grand array of orders as seen through Boeing's beer goggles. What will be announced is a collected sum of orders representing months and years in the making, with an obligatory comment of, " Boeing only announces what our customers request during air shows." The reality is "Please let us announce your order through the Paris Air Show, and oh please and thank you. Plus, don't lose that sealed envelope I'm giving you as a bookmark for your notepad."

Enough of fantasy for the morning, back to speculating about sales.

The 737 Max and Friends (NG):

Some noise is out there leading up to the show:   Jet Airways to order 50 Boeing 737 Max planes: CAPA  

This is a sampler from today's press postings. Other blocks of 737 aircraft are circling for final approach at Le Bourget at this time. 

787-9's:

Even with 787 on the semi mend, from its teething woes, more orders will be forthcoming.  the -9's have started to roll and the 8's are on track to punch out at 7-10 a month. That alone makes me feel some new  sales announcements will stir some conversation. I would expect follow on orders from Boeing customers at the show or maybe a surprise order no one considered.  

The Big mystery is the 777X:

I would expect announcement of its Launch Customer(s) either one customer for each type of the 777x -8,-9 or one customer for both in one giant order. I also expect 150 orders of these aircraft at the show, when it hits the final tally board.

The great lady 747-800:

She still has a seat, even though it is considered a stop gap strategy; until the A380 settles her weight into select locations throughout the world. As freight increases, so does the 747-800 order book. Once the Airbus super Jumbo has maximized its footprint, the 747-800 will quietly slide into a jetway for the next 10 years with more orders. I don't believe Paris. this year, is for the Queen of the skies. She is getting ready for the home stretch run and the A380 well, is just the A380, where its own niche is closing soon, in the next two years. The 747-800 and the Airbus A380, both have its own niches. The market capacity will drive both its relative sales. 

If this were a horse race, The Max wins, 777X Places and 787 Shows. 

Design of engine for Boeing 737 Max completed

The topic is the Max 737 Engine design freeze from CFM.  The Puget Sound Business Journal brings this discussion to light. The Journal follows with the announcement, about the CFM 737 Max engine:

"CFM International engineers have locked in the design of the Boeing 737 Max engine, moving the aircraft upgrade a significant step toward reality. The completion of the engine design paves the way for configuration of the rest of the airplane."

"The May 2 design "freeze" of the LEAP-1B engine means engine manufacturer CFM International can now start developing and releasing the digital files, still referred to as “drawings,” that will guide milling machines in cutting engine parts.

CFM International is a joint venture between General Electric and Snecma, a French company.

The first 737 Max engine is to be assembled in early 2014, then tested and then certified over the next two years. Boeing’s 737 Max, a re-engined version of its current 737 “Next Generation” model, is to enter service in 2017. Boeing now has 1,235 orders for the 737 Max, making up 39 percent of the total 737 backlog."

May 2, 2013 is a benchmark date for the program because the engine sets the tone for everything tied to the power unit: from back-up systems, wing design, and operational capabilities. A serious Max fine tuning can now begin in engineering. After which testing, and then the full sized test aircraft.

All other design changes start in earnest, once the engine is confirmed at CFM. They will need to validate its power, fuel consumption and reliability. Proving within the fixed design parameters.  Those set parameters are now firm, triggering the start of everything it takes to build the Max. Testing will cause subtle changes within those limits, maximizing that the engine performs, according to the computer screen theory. Making a long process before it is set under the wing.

The immediate affected areas on the Max from Engine design freeze are:

• Position of engine on the wing, distance forward or back to the center of the aircraft gravity from setting the Max Engine power, weight and engine diameter. The items affect the power vs drag issues. Now Boeing must have decided on engine diameter and the mounted wing position.

• Nose gear length will now freeze affected by engine size specifications and and its gear housing requirements.

• Any electrical design changes can now occur post engine design freeze.

• All backup safety systems will conform to the CFM design freeze.

“In general, we’re trying to change as little as possible about the airplane,” Penning said, adding that the engine design freeze is “huge for our program.”

Boeing and CFM engineers have been traveling between the two companies during the development phase.

“We work hand in glove with all of the air frame customers, they know everything we’re doing,” Jewell said. “We share the results with Boeing, it informs what we do with the airplane.”

This answers a lot questions about the above bullet points, Boeing is freezing many of the loose ends along the way when CFM was comprising the CFM towards design freeze.  We know that an inch forward or an inch back for the engine on the wing affects airplane lift and drag performance. It was previously stated the landing gear is depending on the final engine configuration. As stated in this article, they have reduced a thousand pounds in the engine area. The 787 project was remise, when it gained a 180 pounds weight, implementing its stainless steel fire box on its battery system. Weight and the numbers of passenger seats are the main ingredients in the Max-Neo wars. This is an apple to apple war, not a metal to plastic war, found in the WB's.

Those two items directly affect performance.  Shaving off a thousand pounds off the engine area is a big thing in that war. The Max has shaved many other pounds off, over its predecessor, the NG.  The game afoot is the weight reducing without losing functionality. If in fact you increase its raw performance for an engine and reduce its weight you have won the daily double.  A better and lighter engine that is sitting on a test block, and then mounted onto a lighter more streamlined body, and then hooking it up with optimizing management system, bears the name, Max. The Design freeze on the engine represent those things just mentioned.

CFM's Max Engine Frozen on the Block, awaits a wing to fly.

That is how Boeing is stacking its performance numbers against the competition. Percent improvement (%) from the engine, another from body and wing design (%), and more from weight reduction (%), is how they claim a 17% fuel savings on the Max over its former models. Plus I haven't forgotten (%) improvement from Max systems management. The NG is just ahead of the A320 in the first place. Now the Max will challenge the Neo.  

The last trump card Boeing will play with all its new advanced technology will play out in 2030's on an all plastic super single aisle construct. 

Boeing Puts Its Money Where Its Plans Go: To Invest $1 Billion In South Carolina "To The MAX 737"

The year is 2015, and one more piece of the puzzle is inserted on Boeings aviation game board. A billion dollar plant in Charleston area will open next to the new 787 plant, employing more than 2,000 employees to the Max. Engineers will be assigned by existing engineering  mentors from the Northwest and additional aerospace engineers throughout the pool of available help for this process. The concern for the Renton production site is how much of the action on the 737 will remain for them in production.  There is a significant amount of work for Renton manufacturing where it needs to retire the Next Generation order book before the two plants assembly line is required for duo delivery slot from both The Max and the NG lines of 737.

Juggling of order books will be applied judiciously for optimal effect. A start up process for the Max would disrupt Renten Productivity on the NG backlog. A MAX start up in Charleston will allow Boeing to bring season veterans into a new factory and find out how to make this new technology aircraft without impedances applied on an existing factory floor. It will take from 2015 to 2017 before delivery production will start to crank-up from the new site at which time, Renton will be closer to end of the NG Order Book.

Tacoma News Tribune Starter News Piece 

From Boeing's own website here is the tale of the order Book

Unfilled Orders by Model		Through April 2013
Model Series	Orders	Deliveries	Unfilled
Total Unfilled Orders			4447
737
737-700	1310	1091	219
737-700BBJ	115	111	4
737-700C	17	15	2
737-800	4162	2867	1295
737-800A	40	23	17
737-800BBJ	21	18	3
737-900BBJ	7	6	1
737-900ER	528	166	362
737-MAX	1235	0	1235
Total Unfilled for 737			3138

Out of  7,435  737 orders taken there remains 3,138 planes to build.

Renton will produce everything down through the 737-900ER Box and then retire the NG backlog. This total is 1904 aircraft for non Max aircraft. What is not known is how many of these aircraft could be converted over to the Max line. But 1904 is sufficient enough number to keep Boeing Renton going for almost four years at 42 a month, or Maxing out production in the year 2017 where they will need to retool for the Max and split with Charleston on its delivery aircraft. By 2015, Charleston will be in its initial phase of finalizing the deal and will be receiving Renton team members for training, engineering and testing.  Secondly, how many more Max aircraft will there be on the order book by 2015 or by four years and how many NG will there be added to Renton's Work Orders. If renton receives another 200-300 NG in the next 4 years they will be ready to handle order backlog until 2018 closes. 2019 will be the year both facilities will be fighting for "King of The Mountain Honors" with Charleston having a definite head start.

Renton has flexibility after 2017:

• They may take in other Boeing programs that supplement Everett.
• Co-produce the MAX
• Establish a new niche for Boeing's X programs
• Have long, long talks with its Renton workforce.
• Transition in the works by 2020 for Renton. Company wide real estate is a premium.

Renton has a short narrow runway:

Wikipedia referance:

It has one runway designated 16/34 with an asphalt and concrete surface measuring 5,382 by 200 feet (1,640 x 61 m).^[1] The runway was resurfaced and realigned in August 2009; prior to this time, it was designated 15/33.^[4]

Renton is either trapped in a box or it it is a real opportunity to expand the smaller projects with military and specialty technology such as the X-48C project if it goes into production in 10 years or less. This will be a production site but it remains limited by nature to single isle and small aircraft. Charleston operation has only the sky for limiting aircraft types. Everett has fewer options due to expansion in place and other encroachments. But those concerns are remapped within the property with continuous plans for new projects.  The airport is owned by City of Renton and is important to its economy.  Cost of relocation would be a premium cost, but Boeing drops another billion into Charleston is a capital investment of great importance and commitment.  Boeing could not do that at Renton. The value added onto the Charleston best uses the region as Boeing's  new aerospace center.  The hand writing is on the wall due to space considerations of current aircraft in production and on the drawing board. Any decisions will not be based on sentiments or loyalty, but more about gaining an advantage from the ground up to meet the competition.

Renton is a valuable property, but will be best used in  different Boeing capacities as a unique aerospace center, once the "other" plant is operational, and the back log is caught up on the NG. Then Boeing should have another important plan ready for Renton.  Boeing isn't sinking another 1 billion into the Renton facility even though it upping its productivity to 42 units a month. It has to remove the NG backlog so Boeing can make more sales on the Max destined to the Charleston order book, which has the money and space that Renton facility cannot utilize.



Renton Airport top of picture, Boeing 737 NG Manufacturing Facilities Center and angling towards right top.

Boeing Making A Proprietary Shift

Boeing is beginning to seek a proprietary shift in its manufacturing. This shift will not be a wholesale cashing out of contractors, but a subtle shift towards controlling what Boeing can control well even at one part at a time where necessary.  The Boeing partners need not worry, but are partially liable for this shift. Boeing's duopoly with Airbus and another new kid on the block, Comac, hold some pressure on Boeing's quiet change of strategy of seeking proprietary solutions for new aircraft productions with key parts that Boeing can do. It is an old strategy of added value from its own production resources. The second strategy is having exclusive proprietary control over aerospace advancements where its competitors cannot access.

Case points:

Moving key 787  parts back to Boeing from contractors who under perform, or what Boeing can do by recapturing assurances and improving reliability for that part. The strategy of establishing design and parts production to Charleston, SC where it can, rather than letting another manufacturer handle other process is a signal that Boeing actively controls the parts flow before some condition from the outside could stall the program later.

Boeing South Carolina will design 737 MAX part

"Boeing spokeswoman Cris McHugh said the company is “moving more design work inside Boeing to strengthen our production system, protect our intellectual property and enhance our long-term competitiveness.”"

Boeing must make extreme provisions and exclusive rights over technology handed off to its suppliers. Some items are common place in the manufacturing world, and do not need special handling for its protection from competitors. But there are a group of technologies that require special handling for maintaining its proprietary advantage over the competitor.

The reasons of critical need for Boeing are as follows:

• Shared technology with a supplier must remain proprietary to Boeing.
• Quality of product must consistently meet a High standard.
• Delivery of product must meet Boeing standards for timeliness and in quantity.
• Competitor must not gain advantage from Boeing's specification and its application of that part.

If you look at Boeing's track record of refining supplier, parts, and reliability you see changes in its supply stream is continually improving, where it can improve the production environment. The more you can do inhouse manufacturing , is the more you can control in critical areas. However, the more you can rely on those out of house (manufacturing parts), the more you can apply your resources in better served areas where Boeing has expertise. 

So far Boeing has been burnt on several issues from its partners, by underperforming contractual supplier parts not meeting its promises. Boeing has to undergo remedial change in those areas by bringing some of the production back in house where it can.  

A tightening of the parts stream will continue in spurts as Boeing can analyse partnering performers and where Boeing can step-in and supply the part or fill the "gap". Currently, Boeing will stand by its design partners and suppliers. before ever shifting  back to a US suppliers or with Boeing itself. Its a matter of having the best production plan in place for its best parts.

The Charleston example of 737 engine nacelles parts, is something it can quickly do and is capable of on a regular basis. In house projects has room in South Carolina. Smaller parts are shippable around the world.  As the Boeing 787 matures, Boeing may take on more small bits from the general parts areas leaning towards the Carbon Fiber arena. It does not need to build engines, make wings, or become a battery supplier; but does need to fill in the small gaps by using its growing Charleston facility with engineering, and innovation in support of its partnering suppliers. Have a proprietary stamp on innovation will separate Boeing from its competitors, and it can have an affect when CFM and GE supplies the engines to Boeing, that no other competitor can use those types of Boeing exclusive innovations found with its partners, as with those stalwart engine makers. 

Japanese manufacturing is quickly becoming the world's leading CFRP wing maker. Boeing's wing design is world leading and the production is of extreme high quality, manufactured in Japan. The two of them together make the all new aircraft performance ahead of the pack.  Boeing is taking an interesting tack by setting design parameters for its world leading manufacturers to produce its proprietary systems that the competition can not borrow, copy or duplicate. Airbus may use the same manufacturer for braking systems or computer firmware, but it cannot duplicate Boeing's research on those items.

Boeing is not reeling back on its suppliers, and is not getting into the many faceted field of aerospace specialties, but it is beginning to fine tune its control over the vast field of manufacturers who are given a task of making a system or part without any control in place from Boeing.  The oversight and involvement level is dramatically increasing.  Boeing won't manufacture a landing gear, wing or engine. But they need a strong presence at the point of development for those various specialty makers when something goes wrong. They have been tightening this gap since it first proclaimed a strategy of shared investment, and risks with its suppliers, as the new way to build an airplane. It has now come back and reexamined the troubled progress of the 787. This has become the "engine" of Boeing's strategy adjustment.

To name a few well publicized failures:

• Fasteners
• Barrels 
• Delamination Issues
• Battery/Electrical

Perhaps not a complete list, but it makes the point that Boeing is going through a new phase, away from dependence on the earlier strategy of building airplanes out of a parts bin, and heading towards a more co-share of aircraft building.  If somebody does something quite well, and they have a long relationship in play, then the leash is out all the way. If someone is new at it, and claims it can do it best, then the leash gets very short with Boeing. Hence the fine tuning of its suppliers, and Boeing will jump in where it can, so it can make a difference.

That is a change I am seeing with this article at the top of the Blog relating to a  737 part, produced at Boeing's Charleston plant.

777X All Flight Plans Lead To Paris

The news is full of the 777X today, recounting what LiftnDrag has been hinting at for some time during the last six months. There is a new sheriff in town, and it will be the  777-8 and-9. Look at a few notable links and you get the sense Boeing is just about to let the cat out of the bag in the next few weeks with additional details comprising its recent Authority to Offer (ATO). If Boeing chooses to do so, it will "leak out", in Paris who the signature Launch Customers (LC) are during the "Airshow and Tell"?

• UPDATE 2-Mini-jumbo war beckons as Boeing starts selling 777X
• Boeing starts targeted 777X sales efforts
• Boeing Nearing Approval for 777X Starts Marketing Plane
• Boeing to offer 777X for sale as launch nears

These are just a few links today explaining what was in the works back in December 2012 and earlier. An announcement to launch will come in two weeks or, mid-month. Feature Customer(s) will come out at Paris, even though Boeing has probably made some kind of memorandum of understanding with its lead customer already, it just needs to tweak what it can and will deliver that configuration for that customer. Folding wings is an exciting concept that will be "on" or "laid to rest" in the next couple of weeks. 

Followed by these talking points:

• GE New engines technology
• Composite applications on the aircraft Wing Box area and lifting surfaces.
• New Technology Aluminum for the body
• New Dimensions and Capacities 
• Performance projections
• Core Architecture improvements (all electric ?)
• Wing design geometry changes, affecting in-flight configuration and performance.

The bottom line is a 50/50 aircraft of composites and new generation metals. The body will be metal, but the aircraft will have composite features throughout. The 777X is all about weight reduction and size flexibility.  It may add nine inches to the barrel for 9-10 across seating, and have folding wings, but the wings will also look more like a 787 wing made of composites when extended.

The Max will take similar technical improvements on board as does the 777X. A lot of questions will be answered and validated at the announcements.

The 777x can and will compete well with the A-350-1000. It gives customers a lot to think about until Paris, where Boeing will announce initial sales and go into details about the 777X.

I believe Boeing will announce two LC's at Paris, one for the -8 and one for -9, or it could be just one LC with both models. There are several suitors who want that designation of LC. The ATO means Boeing has verbal signals in hand enough to make noise, and it will come with a big splash announcement at Paris in 47 or so days. The LC will have to have a significant order book. Go to Paris and see history made with Boeing. 

X-48C A New Class Of Aircraft With Multiple Applications; Update: with Grummans Offering

Boeing quietly has been developing a new class of aircraft with multiple applications. The press doesn't report on this project because it does not relate or equate its conventional wisdom on air travel by Blended Wing Body (BWB). Boeing is now testing the X-48C as a working model for validating avionics, confirming Blended Wing feasibility, for structural limits and material components. It is reviewing and testing various possibilities for the commercial and military aircraft applications.

The video from Boeing is shown from its website, as quite an eye opener for those aviation buffs who wonder where the future will go next. Remote driven drones landing and taking off of aircraft carriers is not that far into the future.

What do Boeing and Grumman say:

• 25 years into the future
• Commercial passenger application
• Commercial cargo lifter
• Military Drone and Fighter
• Military Naval  Applications (Grumman Testing)
• Mobile Fighter Wing assigned to remote areas shipped in cargo packages: by land, sea, and air.

Just think, having 200 full military sized drone fighters stacked in pens deep below the deck of an aircraft carrier.  Above that a room full of pilots sitting at workstations linked to satellites and sending signals back to the warfighters uploading onto the deck. A range of over a 1000 miles and deployment in multi-directions in minutes. Simultaneously, controlled by systems, deck pilots, and programmed missions. This is where the Airforce and Navy are heading in 25 years.

This New View of America's Deadliest Drone Is Formidable

Grumman's Military Application: X 47B War Bird

Yikes: It will take-off of Carriers

USS Harry Truman Loading

A second thought: A large immense flying wing carrying 500 passengers around the world in a theatre like the spread of comfortable personal spaces for its passenger. Fuel economy that cannot be matched. Quiet and easily serviced. The wing would not necessitate an airport rebuild to fit a large BWB, but instead,  it would become a standard for short high-density commuter flights or long-range routes around the world. Conventional Aircraft, Obsolescence? No, but a new niche, that efficiently carries the masses where it wants to go.

Cargo: the irregular cargo shape problem diminishes. A manufacturer has to move parts that are too wide or long and could not fit on a conventional aircraft's long narrow tube. However, this wing could have a tail that opens to fifty feet wide and maybe go in a hundred feet deep which could carry drone blended wing fighters to theatres of operations, or carry many pallets of what can fit, in lbs, on the blended winged cargo ship.

Boeing is testing this small version to validate its avionics, structure, and capabilities before throwing in on its Next Big Idea. I would like to believe they have a viable concept that could be employed by the military testing these prototypical models and is just finishing those tests.  They have scheduled a carrier takeoff and landing in the near future. That is a big hint.

Below is the first ever X-48C flight:

April, A Month Where Fools Fear To Tread

April closes in a rush with the Boeing call of: "Pilots start your engines". It started out with the FAA and Boeing in a holding pattern, waiting for a preponderance of evidence for installing a new battery solution. The Blog topics were chosen to follow a variety of important Boeing issues going forward. Blog features in chronological order month of April.

Topical List in Chronological order:

April 10 - 787  Progressions to Profit

"Boeing is at that crossroad on the 787 gamble. It will stay all in and ride it out, because that is the only way it can win. The investors know it and have responded as Boeing’s stock has elevated during the last three months. Airbus has backed off of Lithium-ion where it will add some weight, lose some battery performance and avoid a timetable crunch to get the A350 airborne."

By End of Month, all-in on the Battery, where the company has delayed 787 profitability some months. But barring any further battery mishaps, Boeing will catch back up by end of year. What they lose will be the public level of interest and trust from the ticket counter to the boardroom. Secondly it loses momentum and delays profitability from added cost to the program. This condition pushes out the break even point in units, affecting the date it takes for reaching break even in additional months. Break even cost are up and units needed to meet those cost increase because of total Battery fix costs. Making it a break even date an additional year. I would now suggest 2017 for Break even instead of late  2015.

Example if this mishap cost Boeing another billion dollars to fix how many airplanes extra must they now produce before making a profit and how long will that take in the profitability progression?  Also not lost is the idea this cost will be spread out over follow-on models not yet flying such as the 787-9,10 and 777X. Depending how accountants want to retire this fail will show up on future bottom lines.

April 14-Boeing Double Downs On The Battery


“Boeing has to identify and properly mitigate the risks to the FAA’s satisfaction,” Hersman said. Lifting the grounding “really is up to the FAA.”


Boeing stands pat on its battery bet with the FAA, and raises the chip pot by putting "All of Boeing", in on that bet. It is confident, that a solution is before the FAA, and will let it ride. Many meetings from the Board of Directors, Engineering and suppliers were held to reach this point. Everyone assented yes, on the all-in call and didn't blink. The FAA was handed this position. They agreed eventually, and didn't blink.  Airbus Blinked and changed its battery package.

April 16th, ETOPS, The Wick On Boeings Lamp.

"The battery issue is tied to FAA ETOPS evaluation, in that ETOPS is an intermediate control mechanism for the 787 long route service for which it was designed. The FAA can turn that wick back from 330 minutes, 180, or 120 minutes."

It now looks like that FAA will cautiously move the goalpost to 330 minutes, since it has now approved the battery fix. By the end of the month FAA, will essentially focus on validating 180 minutes. 180 minutes is the status quo and 330 is the brave new limit. New Zealand Air needs this 330 minute ETOPs when receiving its first 787-9.  The Boeing Co. needs the FAA completing this certification before the 787 -9's delivery into service, which would help New Zealand routes, and fulfill the 787-9's purpose.  This has rapidly become a non issue of Boeing's current barriers, but they still must go through the ETOP certification, before they are out of the woods.

April 19th : FAA Expected to Clear 787, Friday, April 19th, Is An Epic Day In U.S. History..... So April 25 Is A Better Day to Announce

Just because I said so doesn't make it right. It was April 19th after-all. FAA was busy keeping the hounds off its backs answering questions of why they went along with Boeing's sophistry in the workplace.  Boeing, the leading expert in Lithium-ion aircraft batteries did not have a standard for the unknown and did not foresee a battery meltdown not unlike the computer battery meltdowns that happened ten years earlier with Lithium-ion Battery technology. So, during 2007, FAA and Boeing signed off on the unknown together in a symbolic gesture towards battery failure. However, since then we now have: a fireproof box; A toxic exhaust system, and lower voltage regulation. Because only two of the 787 batteries smoked and burned out of fifty, Boeing removed this threat of smoking and burning. The did not remove the threat of battery failure because they could ever find the root cause. However (one more time for the pause), that is a moot point, because the airplane can fly sufficiently, no matter where its found on Google Maps or whenever a battery microwaves itself on the planet. It guarantees the 787 lands at its scheduled destination when it comes to battery problems. That is why the FAA signed off. The 330 minutes ETOP needs to go through an FAA procedure of certification, before everyone else will know all is well, when flying to New Zealand. The Fire department of Boeing clears the Battery with FAA. They say, "The fire can't happen, but battery failure could. Fire and smoking is far worse than battery failure." FAA agrees!

April 21 KC-46 Behind the GAO Scene

KC-46 TANKER 

AIRCRAFT

Program Generally 

Stable but 

Improvements in 

Managing Schedule 

Are Needed

Omission Statement: 

Ever had a writers block with some really good stuff out there for a blog but no ambition for writing about it. The battery stuff really gets old, so I posted (not wrote about it) about my favorite "Boeing Step Child". The KC-46, the project nobody writes about (Omission font.) 

Blurred Vision Statement: Convoluted Version of Vision Staetment

"Never forget, keep the eye on the military and Be Boeing", So, I had to go back to December of 2012 and reach into the GAO playbook. After all I'm keeping the main thing, the main thing, the main thing, with the blurred Vision Statement. 

The White Space Filler On Demand Agency(WSFODA) represents the Federal Government on numerical data, processes, procedures and metrics. Its a good read for people sick about aerospace. I actually read it, since it filled time up, before the next battery failure posting came along, and besides it refreshed me how government is spending money during the sequestration."

The KC-46 GAO review reached out and touched my auditing genes. They found Boeing spending too much rainy day money, way before the Boeing project can start building an airframe, and they spent this amount,before its meeting with a Government scheduled July 2013 block point review.

However (again), the GAO found Boeing executing the low cost method of using, an existing airframe with new technology in a military application (AEAWNTIAMA), well on course as expected. This is a new way that military spending is controlled, by the government implementing its new methodology on projects that is unnecessarily susceptible for having cost runaways, as compared to its old method when using a clean sheet on every project with unproven design points and deep government pockets. This method is supposed to mitigate the dreaded cost over run and place the risk on the contractor , like Boeing. But what if the DOD changes need during the contract. There is always a plan B, and Boeing has just spent its way through plan B before July. The GAO is patting itself on the back saying it works and Boeing is doing well on this project, except it has exhausted its mad money or Plan B, way too soon, spending it on technology change items at the recommendations from DOD and putting it in Boeing's never mind trash can. The KC-46 is on track early and is expected to meet its benchmarks with no surprises. Boeings fixed cost, so far is doing fine, and it should come in on time and under Boeing's costs proposal. Don't expect tinted windows in the cargo area.

April 21 You Want A Challenge? Then Become An AOG Guy During Boeing's Retrofit Arama Days!

30 teams and 84 fixes on the battery. It will happen and the Boeing 787 will fly once again because these AOG teams will make it so! After all, it's not GAO!

2013 Paris Air Show - Paper, Plastic, or Aluminum For Your Purchases

Are you going as a fly or fly swatter? The 2013 airshow very few are talking about in the news but its coming up in July. Time to buy tickets get  travel authorization, and all those busy items finalized through some administrative assistant's help while you concentrate on how stuff a bag that fits in an overhead bin.

Don't forget these items.

• Cell phone/camera and a small hand held computer type device
• Fly swatter
• A Friend tag along, for not looking stupid like you are when talking to yourself. 

Be the Fly on the wall.                                  Swat at those pesky Neophytes

Sir Arthur Conan Doyle is skipped, since the whimsical department has not come back from its office party and they couldn't write a summary even if over-served coffee.

April Summary: It's been a soap opera for Boeing where the FAA finally came out and said, "Scarlet, Frankly my dear, I don't give a...". 

And Al Boeing Gore replied, "It's in a lock box and the key is thrown away."

LiftnDrag Battery research articles

Wired
Wired Feature

Headlines...."Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, Hired For Root Cause Battery Fix"

Its been awhile since all the Kings horses and all the Kings men couldn't put Humpty Dumpty's battery back together again, so Boeing called in Sir Arthur Conan Doyle to solve the root cause of Boeing's battery failure, fire and function. This was a mock press conference held today in London England shortly before BA will receive its first 787 in the next few months. Here are some quotes from his press conference regarding the Case of the Failing Flaming Battery. First off I have noted that if another battery fails or flames, its a no worry case, since the appropriate Battery Case has been installed during this case. Venting is now open to the environment outside the airplane, and plan B is fully functional. Plan C will function in case of Plan B failure.

The press conference notes of Sir Arthur Conan Doyle and his actual statements found in literature:





LnD Blogger: "Sir, why hasn't a Root Cause been found?"

Doyle: "Of all ghosts the ghosts of our old loves are the worst."

LnD Blogger: "How do you propose to solve the case?"

Doyle: "Our ideas must be as broad as Nature if they are to interpret Nature."

LnD Blogger: "The battery works in some cases and then it had an epic fail in a couple of cases, Why?"

Doyle: "It is an old maxim of mine that when you have excluded the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth."

LnD Blogger: "How can you solve this case using FAA Data?"

Doyle: "It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data."

LnD Blogger: "Sir Doyle, what do you bring to the table to solve this case?"

Doyle: "My mind rebels at stagnation. Give me problems, give me work, give me the most abstruse cryptogram, or the most intricate analysis, and I am in my own proper atmosphere. But I abhor the dull routine of existence. I crave for mental exaltation."

LnD Blogger: "Will you be talking to the FAA?"

Doyle: "Nothing clears up a case so much as stating it to another person."

LnD Blogger: "You have a warehouse full of records, how will you get through it before the end of the decade?"

Doyle: "You will, I am sure, agree with me that... if page 534 only finds us in the second chapter, the length of the first one must have been really intolerable."

LnD Blogger: How will you approach finding the problem with the battery"

Doyle: As Cuvier could correctly describe a whole animal by the contemplation of a single bone, so the observer who has thoroughly understood one link in a series of incidents should be able to accurately state all the other ones, both before and after.

LnD Blogger: "Can you tell me what Boeing engineers have revealed to you about the Battery?"

Doyle: "Some facts should be suppressed, or, at least, a just sense of proportion should be observed in treating them."

LnD Blogger: "Why do you think the FAA and Boeing did not catch a battery problem in 2007?"

Doyle: The ideal reasoner, he remarked, would, when he had once been shown a single fact in all its bearings, deduce from it not only all the chain of events which led up to it but also all the results which would follow from it.

LnD Blogger: "Sir Doyle can you take one more question before you start your investigation?"

Doyle: I am remiss not answer your question at this time, but a higher calling for tea and things beckons me to begin my investigation. Thank you for affording this opportunity of laying out my investigative resources with you. Good day!"

Okay, I believe Boeing should've hired this guy last February, not that they would have had a root cause in hand, but the FAA would have to up its game when dealing with this problem. The fantasy world of fiction is so much easier to deal with than reality.

2013 Paris Air Show - Paper, Plastic, or Aluminum For Your Purchases

Things and stuff about the Paris Air Show I want to learn.

Paper Exposition or the 777X

Go to Paris and find out about this paper Airplane called the 777X. So far
its folded and flown around drafting rooms on electronic screens, However, its currently flying the world incognito, as a 777-300 or 200. I give it an Exclusive LnD Fly on The wall rating of:

Three Flies,which is the highest rating, you need to be there camped out at the Boeing Pavillion. You need three items: a camp chair, camera, and cup holder. I assume people with have standard equipment in backpacks, recorders or other ancillary products for documentation. This is all a show and tell extravaganza of paper and paper products regarding the 777X. However, as much paper thrown about the room, in the form of paper airplanes, spit wads and crumbled up paper balls, this story will have legs at the Paris Paper Airplane Airshow. Look for more preliminary announcements on the 777X, maybe even an announced featured first customer along with a Boeing Authority to offer the X plane.  If Boeing can pull this stunt off it means, they are really busy beyond belief on the 777X, because they feel they have a winner. If not, I have been duped into believing my own sensibilities and recoil with the dreaded Fly Swatter.

Plastic Exposition or  Known as the 787 vs The A350 show and tell.

Plastic is the new light bulb. Get rid of your old Edison filament bulb as mandated by manufacturer talking points. Battery talk will hold a Back Slapping Ball at the Boeing and Airbus pavilions.  One will proudly exclaim we are all about safety, and have mitigated any risk, and did the right thing. The other will smartly state we are safer because we are using proven technology to make the biggest and best airplane in the size matters wars. I would not expect to take my lawn chair at that event and camp overnight. It is a walk-up feature to fill you swag bag of complementary plastic items appreciated by fans of a particular airframer. If you want a big event photo, take your picture near somebody important here, or go to the press conference as bragging about new orders begins. What can Boeing say that it already hasn't said before. Its more of a pep rally venue for plastic. Airbus will roll out "the mouth pieces", and talk once again about size matters and sing one more chorus of "How Great Thou Art" on the A380 and the new upcoming A350-1000. Boeing innovates innovation and Airbus wants so much to be "Big Man on Campus" with its own follow on minion swooning over every Airbus comment.


Boeing Plastic Exposition (one Fly)        Airbus Plastic Exposition (one fly)
   
                                 If John Leahy Keeps Talking I will Just Skip It and swat at it.

                                     

Aluminum Exposition:

Now we are talking, about the little engine that could. Plastic is for, well you know, the Yuppies. The Aluminum news is like getting in on the new camping cookware and survival food. You buy it because you need it, but you don't necessarily enjoy the experience, like you do flying on a plastic cruiser. The news is in Boeing's court for 2013, for the Max. Just because I am a loyal fan of this American manufactured (for the most part) aircraft doesn't mean I don't look at the Airbus A320 developments. I just don't comment on it because its not in my own area of interest. I save that for my European Neophytes who should embellish that product. So I remain the embellishment of  Boeing's Dream.

Digression over, back to the Max: This is a wiley aircraft not to be underestimated. That is why I would want to bring a buddy, as a fellow fly on the wall, with me to the show. The Max will have updates, promises and some realities exposed to those "fly's", if they position themselves into the correct corner of the room. Models are put out in central areas. Its not paper, since it has orders and its not plastic, well its a new generation flying aluminum. Its not a 787 or 777 technology but will borrow, steal or walk-off quietly with those secrets, from its sibling stable mates. Therefore, it is at the crossroad from Paper to Aluminum in 2013. Thats why I want to bring a friend along for saying, "cool", without looking like a fool talking to myself. This will be a friend friendly environment where sharing talk is fashionable. The 737 moment is rapidly approaching, "an apex of its aspirations", and you want to be there to see it. Possibly you will find out newsworthy stuff and other blogger friendly facts. I would look forward to see how its harnessing 787 synergy with Max innovation. The proposed 737 Max is going to be a lighter more fuel efficient, and carrying more passengers than the Neo. How is Boeing going to do it, Then go to Paris and find out.

Boeing MAX Aluminum Pavillion (Two Flies need to be there)

Fly Swatters Will Be Ushered Out at this pavillion.

2013 Paris Airshow Links Start here and more below!

Paris Air Show Is Sold Out; Big Names Are Coming

A350 first flight in three months, after Paris air show

June 17-23, 2013 Le Bourget, Paris, France   A good link to get latest PDF content when it loads its PDF updates.

List of Exhibitors - 2013 same source found in above link.

Paris Air Show Fly On The Wall Map