Boeing's Red Herring Express Is On Sale For Christmas

Airplane wars is merely a game of giant monopoly. The path to the crown of the mountain is full of entrapment. Airbus eyes Boeing and Boeing eyes Airbus in duopoly of board gamesmanship. If I were in charge of the board game division at Boeing, I would sucker-punch, trick and treat against the likes of Airbus. In the meantime Airbus seeks answers for its every challenge from other makers for improving its design, processes, and marketability. Boeing does likewise. The board is made up of the most elite members of the aviation industry. Some are brilliant engineers others are brilliant strategist with financial degrees. Let's play, I'll be the one moving the Boeing token around the past go and Fabrice Brégier will play for Airbus.

The dice are played alternating between the two players while risks are unknown and got-cha (Red) cards are drawn by the player when landing on a red card space or the opponent may lose a turn from the role of the dice (dice rolling= risks). Green cards are drawn when a piece lands on a green card place holder on the outer edge of the board. Rolling Snake eyes always loses a turn and allows the opponent a free green card draw which always advances the card drawing player and the player who rolled snake eyes (or a 1 and 1) then draws a red card. Rolling a pair (example 3 & a 3), including snake eyes results in another penalty roll which sends that piece backwards by its dice number.  

There are two classes of rules Board Game rules and Dice rules.

·      The Boeing piece gets another green card when it rolls a 7or 8.

·      The Airbus piece gets another green card when it rolls a 3 or 5.

The game is simple as the board directs each piece around on the outer edge in hopes of tripping up the other competing game piece from an unfortunate outcomes upon landing on a “bad” space. Each player awaits a competitor’s bad roll, a low value card or the “got-cha” Red card. 

It’s a game of survival. When one player circles the board 10 times and receives ten Red Herrings before the other, it wins. Or when a player roles snake eyes then rolls snakes eyes again when determining how far back they will go from the second roll the game then ends which claims a winner for the opponent. 

The game will also end after a player draws the one and only “game over” red card.  The "game over" red card is always the last Red Card played and is placed on the Bottom of the Red Card deck of Fifty cards. It takes consecutive snake eyes and or turning the one and only “Game over’ Red card to outright lose on game play from the dice or the Red Cards. The game also ends when a player becomes the winner through collecting 10 Red Herring pieces. 

Fifty (50) Red Cards: 

·      Lose an entry into service date, then go back 20 spaces and lose a  "Red Herring" token, only if Red Herring corner is passed when going backwards (15 cards)

·      Game-over opponent wins-(1 card)

·      Test Engine failure loses two turns-(2 cards)

·      Test Technology Failure loses one turn-(10 cards)

·      FAA bulletin sanction loses one turn-(2 cards)

·      Supplier can't deliver on time loses one turn-(10 cards)

·      Test Flight fails performance objective go back 10 spaces and accept any outcome when landing in 10^th space as labeled (10 cards)

Fifty (50) Green Cards:

·      Gain an entry into service and go ahead 20 spaces collecting a Red Herring if passing Red Herring Corner (10 cards)

·      Go forward to next Airport landing corner (10 cards)

·      The Board makes the right decision go forward to next Airport landing (10 cards)

·      Totals single aisle sales exceeds competition by 1000 one Red Herring token awarded (10 Green cards)

·      The press has awarded you one Red Herring (10 cards)

The whole point of the game is the using deception or intrigue as for a subterfuge which trips up an opponent in the real airplane world. The deception is noted by the term “Red Herring” or a false flag operation. 

Currently Boeing is hedging its announcement for a 797 by delaying a MOM announcement. No one knows what Boeing will propose and its even driving the Japanese bonkers, because it wants a play in a new model venture such as a 797. Airbus is eagerly waiting for Boeing to announce so it can counter with a market pleasing offering. Boeing tosses enough Red Herrings over to its prime competitor, it may slip an announcement in, but only after enough pre-sale commitments are made by its customers. 

In the meantime it’s time to play on a board game before any decision is made and deceive the competition with Red Herrings and 10 of those will win the day.

® Board Game By Winging It

Game Rules Notations:

If all green cards are played before a winner occurs then the played cards are reshuffled and placed back on the board face down for continuing the draw.

Role of the dice alternates between players unless directed by the game cards drawn where turns are lost by either dice play or Red cards drawn.

The decision for who will go first from the START is by each player rolling the dice and it is decided by rolling until a player rolls a pair while alternating from one player to the other, then they get to choose if they go first or second. Both will always have a chance to roll before starting. If both roll a pair on the first try then it continues until a player loses against the other when one rolls a pair and the other doesn’t. Then who goes first is decided by the winner.

A pair is when each dice equals the other. This could be 1-1 (snake eyes); 2-2; 3-3; 4-4; 5-5; and 6-6.

Dice propel the playing piece around the board by the number the dice pair produces on a roll. However there are special provision when rolling exact pairs mentioned above. Snake eyes have a significant role mentioned in the above rules at the top.

Example: If rolling two sixes then a player moves ahead 12 spaces and happens to land on  an instruction space (Red, Green or penalty space), then the player rolls again without having to follow the board rules of the space. A second consecutive roll will move the player backwards by its number because of the first outcome was a pair of sixes.

However, when going backward and landing on an instructive space, the player must follow instructions of the space. Whether it’s a Green, Red, or penalty space. -1 means player loses a turn and the other player then gets two consecutive rolls before the penalized will have its next roll. A -2 situation means a player must lose two consecutive turns when the other player gets three rolls in a row.

·      There are four penalty spaces losing one turn,

·      four Red card spaces (penalty),

·      and eight green card spaces (advantage).

Rolling a dice number allows the player to go forward counter clock wise on the board by that number after which moving as directed by any board or dice rule imposed instructing a player of the result of landing on a space or adhering with dice rules after moving.

A paired number rolled may result in a double penalty if moving backwards from dice rules as a penalty roll and lands on a red card space draw or penalty space.

After writing this exercise in gamesmanship, the only truth emerges from a roll of the dice or a flip of a customer allegiance, whether it is colored Red or Green. The rule is to have fun with Airplane Wars'- Red Herring which can be news announcements until the next airshow. The board game needs an airshow space announcing how many Red Herrings have been saved up for any airshow awarding a Red Herring Token. The Airshow place could allow for puffing ones own chest or placing a bet towards its ultimate outcome. Play on and watch those numbers before crossing the flight line. 

Will The 797 Build At Boeing Japan?

A Seattle Times offering by Dominic Gates is worth the read and offers fuel for Boeing contemplation and mental thoughts. Gates ponders whether the 797 could be or will be built in Japan. After-all they are significant contributors to the 787 and 777X programs at Mitsubishi Heavy Industry. It is important to consider if Everett, Renton or Charleston would be an efficient and profitable location for Boeing's 797's launch site. Questions need to be solved for what location would best fit a 797 campaign, therefore starting with Mitsubishi then Washington and followed by Charleston directs this: “what's next” conversation.

Japan and followed by other locations talking points:

·      A proven ability to build a flying aircraft from scratch.

·      Engineering and production capability for sustaining aircraft making for program duration.

·      Boeing oversight from ground up remains intact for a foreign enterprise.

·      Profitability margin exceeds its counterpart locations when delivering aircraft to customers.

·      Future sales enhancements exists by location placement.

Mitsubishi Heavy Industry (MHI) can do the job as it has already handled building significant parts for the 787 program. It has built a successful regional jet (MRJ), a smaller frame than the 797 to its completion from 2015. 

  

Boeing would have to swarm MHI with engineers and production workers during its ramp up for completing a 797. Mirroring a similar experience Boeing had with its Charleston facility when the first copies of the 787 were completed.

The Effective and Efficient (EE) standard exceed all options of where a 797 could be built. Would MHI make the 797 production location a winner for Boeing over Washington State and Charleston SC? If MHI exceeds an EE test anywhere, then it would become the place of choice for Boeing.

Finally, Japan buys the 797 in copious quantity since it would be a Japanese based product. An over flow of orders comes from regional partners, because of that Boeing would tip the hat for a Japanese location building the 797. A win-win condition for Boeing exist when lower costing from MHI wins over Boeing's own manufacturing and developmental locations in the States.  

Washington State:

Yes, Washington State is Boeing's core engine for building airplanes from its development and production. The delimiting factor is finding space for building a 797. Boeing may already have a plan for finding space in the State of Washington west of Mt Rainier. Only the union chases it away from the Washington 797 placement.

The cradle of modern American aviation has a 981 zip code in its numbering. Colleges, Tech, and University schooling is built in the Seattle area for making engineers, machinist, and production personnel. Boeing in Washington builds everything with wings and is highly successful making heavy objects fly and fly. The whole function of Renton, Seattle, and Everett is duration of its aircraft industry.

Aircraft making oversight is a redundancy and part of its corporate mission. 

Boeing Mission Strategy Statement:

"Run healthy core businesses

Leverage strengths into new products and services

Open new frontiers

People working together as a global enterprise for aerospace leadership" 

Does Washington State footprint beat the competition on enough levels?

This is a hotly debated topic with its Charleston's counterpart capability whom is not Union at this point in time. It is the most efficient airplane center in the world as it beats the Charleston, SC production and development capability. The sum of its whole capability beats Airbus' own manufacturing. Boeing has become the world's largest airplane manufacturer because the Washington state foot print is the guide on for all of Boeing's enterprises.

Future sales are built on Boeing's reputation from the Northwest location. However, some analyst believe Boeing must expand from that location to remain a viable leading builder of new flying technology thus a consideration is on the table for building the 797 elsewhere, as it expands its world footprint.   

Charleston SC:

Charleston has proven over and over again it can build the world's most advanced airplane in the 787. It also builds ancillary parts for the 787 program. Charleston is equipped for absorbing Boeing growth from its own growing aerospace functions in the area. Therefore, Charleston is a serious contender for developing and building a 797.

However, its recently produced a flying 787-10 and it moved to Seattle for its test campaign even though Charleston already had a vast experience for making the 787 family from its first two model types. The inference suggests Boeing Northwest maintains the lead testing center for all future air-frames because of its human Resource, Experience and Corporate controls.

Charleston is here to stay until notified otherwise. The duration of a project campaign is unlimited as it has matured to the level of having the highest confidence for producing new airplane types. It is positioned well for the next step of making a whole new air-frame such as a 797 middle of the market aircraft.

Charleston is not a foreign enterprise and beats any foreign competition in this category. Only Northwest Boeing is the head of the class for this consideration. In Fact the Boeing Northwest swarm of engineers and airplane builders made the initial Charleston 787 product. But much to its credit, Charleston has followed on, by relentlessly succeeding in every challenge given by the corporate mandate.

Profitability from Charleston is from several factors such as a Non-union environment and flexibility of space consideration. It has enough space or land to enhance Boeing efficiency. It can make it cheaper because of its favorable production environments.

There is no future benefit for sales from a Charleston location. It is only convenient for some of its European customers and going eastward. A location condition is only effective when it benefits the customer over a long period of time or it mutually benefits both Boeing marketing and the hosting nation at the same time such as MHI deal would make for making a Boeing decision. The Boeing reputation comes from the Seattle area not Charleston.

A summary conclusion would make this a horse race at the end of it all. MHI for orders, Seattle for reputation and expertise, and Charleston for flexibility and lower costs. The Japan option is awkward for Boeing's corporate involvement, but it can be done if Japan makes it worth it. The Charleston option is limited by over-all program experience such as MHI has where Charleston has limited program experience, but cost controls are attractive to Boeing stockholders.

The always faithful Northwest Boeing centers are most attractive but for its rising costs plaguing corporate investors thinking. In this horse race sales will drive the decision process. 

MHI will get the nod if the Japan region goes for buying 500 of the 797, otherwise, it may only order 200 initially as Boeing goes elsewhere with a decision. 

The Northwest is in the middle, having reputation, know how, and a proven track record. It would get the initial production nod where Boeing then would branch out once the program is set in a delivery stream. Japan will get a promise for production participation if it will wait five years allowing time to prove out this type as it would get the Asian market share for production.  

Depending on sales quantity, Charleston could conceivably get a substantial production share depending on sales of all Boeing types during the next ten years forward. The sales would require a rising Max and 777X order book, then Charleston could take on about 20 797 a month pace where Boeing would have an equal portion for delivery. If sales are soft across the board then the Northwest R&D wins the horse race.

A Delta Delay of its 10 A350-900 Changes Everything.

Delta airlines is pondering delaying 10-A350's as it restructures its fleet requirements. Too much too soon may sink Delta values. However, a Boeing opportunity may emerge as Delta's management continues its normal turnover at upper levels. New thinking is evident by the A350 delay consideration. Delta is working on a buying pause with its fleet renewal or expansion plans. An Airbus order delay would signal Delta's caution because of the fluid and dynamic nature of changing markets and strategy for assigning inventory for both opportunity and efficiency when using its existing inventory.

Boeing lost a bitter sales campaign to Airbus when it signed on for twenty-five A-350-900's several years back. It would love to have that loss back with another try. This is were a speculative sales offer would come into view. How could Boeing take advantage of Delta's changing management? It would depend on who comes into Delta and who retires. Boeing could not get a second chance at all but the recent discussion are centered on an A350 delivery delay for ten of its type.

One consideration by Delta would be pricing for new equipment with open delivery dates. That would satisfy a Delta goal of having a flexible fleet change when expansion and renewal dynamics are in play. It is possible the Delta/Airbus A350 contract is not flexible enough taking on its large of order during the next 10 years. A delivery pause would allow a counter from Boeing to offer just in time 787's leading-in with the 787-10 model.

The 787-10 doesn't fly as far as the A350-900. It may only need to go 6,000 miles in Delta's network. The A350-900 maybe an overcapacity type aircraft that can go 8,000 miles but having only those few routes for the distance capability available, Delta wouldn't fill-up 25 aircraft with paying passengers. If the A350-900 holds 325 passengers it would not fly 8,000 miles nor could Delta fill those seats up for its long thin route capability. Perhaps the 787-10 is more efficient than the A350-900 going just 6,000 miles where 90% of the market resides. A Boeing sales pitch suggest this point.

Delaying the A350-900 would signal a rethink of Delta's strategy and Boeing could re-pitch its 787-10 which wasn't complete at the time of the last go round. It was all about the 787-9 at that time and Airbus made its A350-900 more attractive where Delta finds itself working to find routes for long range heavy haulers. There is no A350-800 on the boards and its A350-1000 does not match Boeing's 777-9X capabilities. Delta knows this and it must find a home for its Airbus order. When the deal was struct back in November 2014 Delta just signed with Airbus. The 777X was a paper airplane and the 787-10 was just in a Boeing Dream mode. Now it flies every day in test mode.

Delta could opt for a Boeing deal four years out for delivery and fit Delta's plans better than taking on 25-A350's starting now and dropping the Airbus purchase for 25 A330's  later. A Delta delay on the A-350 may suggest its Airbus purchase for another 25-A330's may be dropped. Boeing could offer 10 and 10 of its 787-10 and 7779X delivered during the year 2020 and beyond using a flexible delivery schedule at Delta's own need. Also the 787-8 or 787-9 may also be a better fit than the A-330 for its operations. 

Either way, Boeing has a slim shot at making a deal with Delta as it considers buying either the NEO or Max single aisle. In that deal making process, Delta may experience a sea change for its planning of its fleet.

Boeing's April Leads Airbus In World's Largest For 2017

The World's Largest Airplane Maker is based on number delivered aircraft and value of those delivered frames. The month of April shows Boeing stretching its lead over Airbus. 

Most observers believe Airbus will rebounds its slow start as many assembled frames are awaiting parts and provisions. However, a third of the year has transpired leaving a smaller window of time for catching up. Boeing has its boot on Airbus performance neck and it won't let up as it transitions from model generation to another. Going from NG to Max will be an exercise planned for with many of its risks already retired. Going forward with the 787-10 follows in the footsteps of the 787-9 development pathway. The real risk Boeing faces is forming the first set of 777X's for which the aviation world eagerly awaits.

The Airbus strong suit is its productivity and Boeing has a substantial lead over that important measure. It leads Airbus by 151 single aisle delivered to Airbus' 143 as shown in Figure 3 and 4.

Additionally, Boeing is padding its backlog with a robust first four months in a "down year with 169 net Single Aisle orders (Fig. 1). Airbus tallies 37 net orders in (Fig. 2). Air Shows and held back orders could even that score up but Boeing is on its way in a plus year over Airbus for the category. 

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

The Boeing duo aisle orders have a life with net 33 but needs more for a good year (Fig.5). Airbus is on life support with 8 net wide body orders in (Fig. 6).

Fig. 5

Fig. 6

Fig. 7

Fig 8.

The conclusion for April is Boeing is hard at work with both its orders and deliveries as it out paces Airbus with 202 orders to Airbus 29 net orders. Shown in figure 9. Boeing out produces Airbus by a score of 220 Boeing to 182 Airbus frames delivered. Airbus won't catch Boeing for the title of World's largest framer during 2017.

The remaining points are self contained in the below chart. If an error occurs pleas let me know as many spinning plates are in the air in fluid and dynamic aviation universe.

Fig.  9.

Phychological Dissonance With Stealth

When the radar bleep tells the operator its an F-15 incoming, a little planted device on the vertical tail wing of the F-35 root sends a F-15 like profile back to that radar indicating its not an F-35 to the operator.



Advantage, F-35 since it became as visible as an F-15. Stealth aside this little nuance confuses what defenders  need when the F-35 is coming in.

Source SOFREP:

"The notched bumps, which are called Luneberg reflectors, serve a purpose."

To confuse and obfuscate is the new weapon. The Navy version will not have this version. I would expect this to be a plug and play feature used in combat as conditions warrant its need since it exposes it as an object entering the battle space. Not all F-35 will have this capability as invisibility is also a needed advantage. More importantly, this signals a maturity of the F-35 program. The military has begun its ad hoc experimentation on how this frame can be modified for all combat condition. The plug and play phase of weaponizing under all conditions has begun. The period the F-35 has entered will continue throughout its life cycle going forward.

C919 Is Flying But Where?

The Chinese COMAC, C919, has flown the coop on its first flight. The Seattle Times offers a quick overview of this accomplishment and what it does for the market.  Dominic Gates writes with his assembly of observations in very clear picture.

Key Quote:

"Yet Richard Aboulafia, industry analyst with the Teal Group, believes that the central planning element and lack of any competition in the Chinese aerospace manufacturing economy inevitably will doom the C919 to mediocrity and unprofitably."

This opinion comes from Winging It's, take it or leave it common sense. There are 3 parts mentioned in this this opinion.

• Can COMAC compete?
• Will the C919 change the current duopoly
• Are customers wanting the C919

The compete question is tied up will Chinese ability of constructing an aircraft of this stature meeting and exceeding Boeing's 100 years of learning, error, and success and Airbus 46 years with Billions of government Euros making it so. COMAC has "borrowed" on Boeing's and Airbus' experience but there is no replacement for ones own experience. Common sense says China has another twenty years before it will get significant notice on its aviation accomplishments.

The current Boeing/Airbus duopoly is the holy aviation cow where many have approached but never have made it as a third wheel in the market place. Embraer, Bombardier, and everybody else who flies crop dusters have a niche place for which Boeing and Airbus will not allow into its mega club. COMAC is a government "allowed" consortium which has a parasitical business model of if we can't do it we will just take from others. I wonder who was the engineer in COMAC who stumbled upon using a side joy stick just like the Airbus version. Then the Chinese engine makers came up with a remarkable CFM engine from Safran and GE for its C919. The Chinese could use the CFM initials so they chose the GE-Safran consortium CFM engine.  By the way CFM was much debated into the Chinese Fast-Moving moniker once the oversight committee agreed. It was a smart move to buy technology you don't have than wait 40 years to develop it.

The COMAC by the Seattle Times chart above, speciously demonstrates a spot between the Boeing and Airbus single aisle dimensions and capacity. The Chinese engineers came up with a best fit by finding a midpoint between the two and made the COMAC a few inches here and there different and a few passenger here and there different. A room full of 1,500 engineers worked out the details of what the C919 would look like. Another forty years gained by borrowing from the mega builders parts bin.

The final point of market acceptance comes to the forefront. Do customers want the C919 on its own merits? 

Second tier regional Chinese Airline customers will do it in quantity per party bulletin issued. The more affluent Chinese airlines will buy-in with token orders out of nationalistic "pride". The affluent airlines are world players and bend towards market competition and are buying first rate air frames from Boeing and Airbus in numbers. 

COMAC does not have a world support foot print for its parts, maintainers and manufacturer's technical support. Customers can't buy and stay competitive without those key field components in play everywhere.

Thus, the C919 is relegated to the Chinese zip code and other peripheral customers. It will take another 40 years to spread a world footprint for its business case for its current and future customers.

As the Seattle Times article points out when quoting  

Richard Aboulafia.

"Yet Richard Aboulafia, industry analyst with the Teal Group, believes that the central planning element and lack of any competition in the Chinese aerospace manufacturing economy inevitably will doom the C919 to mediocrity and unprofitably.

Writing in his monthly newsletter last year, Aboulafia pointed out that:

 “government-managed, funded, and supported jetliners, historically, are not stellar performers.”

“Every single civil aircraft produced by an authoritarian country (or by a socialist economic system) has been a miserable failure on the market,” he wrote.

Predicting The Weather Is Easier Than Predicting 787 Sales

Its been a long held opinion using the Farmers Almanac is better than a long term weather report. There is no Farmers Almanac feature for predicting Boeing 787 sales for 2017. The wrong person to ask is an overly optimistic Boeing Neophyte like Winging It tries to become. The purpose of the blog is an aviation blog having a Boeing emphasis. Only Airbus referencing is used as a backdrop for the task at hand for enthusiastically analyzing how Boeing will stay on top of the aviation market place.

Winging It pretends to be the Farmers Almanac for Boeing aspirations. Using the ground hog as a tool is not an option, but guessing is more accurate method  for coming to a positive conclusion about the 787 sales potential in 2017.

The score card to date includes 13 booked 787, 19 LOI's for 787-10 from Singapore and the recently announced 10 +10 787's from West Jet of Canada. The plus portion are options of course. The final tally comes to 42 of the 787's thus purchased during 2017 to date. Having completed four months of 2017 sales campaign bodes well for the Boeing wide body division when considering two big air shows are upcoming before the close of 2017. In June there is the Paris Airshow at Le Bourget airfield and then the November Dubai Air Show with several interesting potential purchases forming. 

The first one  that comes to mind is the Emirates Order hanging like a chad in a fall election cycle. It may not even happen until much later as the Wide Body market is "soft" in 2017. The primary reason from this prognostication of a potential Dubai no show for an Emirates order, is from low demand for wide body because of low fuel prices. Once people go to the fuel pump  and buy a gallon of gas north of $3.50 a gallon there will be a wide body rush with Emirates leading all the airline suitors. A problem for Boeing is that Airbus is in play with Emirates  and so far it is falling Boeing's way during the early part of 2017 and Emirates is using Airbus offer as leverage for making a Boeing order.

Singapore wants the 777X model to the tune of 20 units, which will/should be announced later this year. Now there are 62 wide body chips stacked so far with Boeing 2017 order book in a "Down Year". The upcoming 8 months should round Boeing out with over 100 wide bodies ordered by year's end.

The ground hog will go into hibernation before year's end and will not be used for any further aviation sales prognostications.  However, much to Winging It's immense knowledge, it can better the ground hog, Farmers Almanac, and Boeing's close to the vest stance with a robust trend announcement. It will snow in December in Canada. Other than that Boeing already has a good year going for it when considering its a down year. Even if it picks up another "Baker's Dozen" 787 orders it will be considered a great year rather than just a good year.

Boeing Cools Its Single Aisle Jets In Production As The Max slots In

 The Boeing Corporation only built 38 737 NG's for its customers during April 2017. Below is the Winging Tracking for Single Aisle delivery.




Fig. 1

In all,Boeing produced 52 of its aircraft for the customers during April, 2017 and has netted delivering  221 for all types YTD.

Wide body types produced during April 2017 stands at 14.

Fig.2

More Airbus to Boeing data will be provided as soon as Airbus updates its website. Boeing, both in sales and delivery were down over its prior months but will maintain a lead over Airbus for the "2017 World's Largest Airplane Maker" distinction.

In the meantime this is a Boeing snapshot of its deliveries for April.

787 April Recap 2017

Below are the April numbers for YTD 787 production and sales.

It's Time To Complain Again About The F-35

Displacement is an old term with a new application. The theory of a floating object weighing the same as a rock, suggests it should not float. However, creating a space inside a rock will displace a volume of water which weighs the same as the hollowed out rock thus making it float. The critics look at the F-35 as a rock that can’t float nor does the rock have enough power to make it fly using those conclusions as a core criticism.

But in reality the F-35 program has both the necessary displacement and power to make it swim in a sea of air and fly very fast. Many critics have not factored in how the F-35 program's little displacement can float a program. Looking at a block of cement, conventional wisdom, would demand it won’t float and could only fly a few feet from a brick layers hands. Yet there are concrete boats that float.

The primary criticism speaks of plausible opinions where the F-35 will lose in combat. The assumption infers that it’s a Bumble Bee and it shouldn’t fly at all, yet a Bumble bee can navigate between rain drops or the sprinkler hose drops. An F-35 will just plain lose because its wings are too small like the Bumble bee where fifth generation computers won’t make up the difference.

Additionally, the worry here is that the F-35 is too far down the road and there is no turning back. It can’t survive a fight. Just like the concrete boat sinks or the Bumble bee dodges rain, it can’t do what its developers say it can do. Traditional wisdom tells us concrete sinks, Bumble Bees shouldn’t fly and the F-35 can’t fight. Who is right and who is wrong?

The answer comes from tests after tests and then war games after war games. War after-all is real and how real is the F-35 fighting a war? The critics weigh in at this point. Those are same ones that never have flown an F-35. The pilots who fly them are either earning their pay by agreeing with its bosses or out of pride. After all the DoD pays the salary. The pilots will not reveal secrets when asked, but they will reveal how well the decision it was to build this aircraft.

The industry wide consensus patronizes support of the government position and the critics sell opinion as gamblers gamble for a living. In fact, the opinionated tends to critique the government for its gambling with the nation’s defense as a curious twist of reasoning.

Everything bad about the F-35 supports the nay-sayers and everything remarkable about the F-35 is embellished by the defense of this nation.

So what has Lockheed wrought? The best answer at this point is looking at Red Flag exercises for which the F-35 finally participated. Even if it were a fixed fight, the F-35 flew remarkably over the best 4^th generation American fighters with fantastic 15:1 kill ratio over adversary aircraft in the event.

However, this was a test of capability without a final version of its software installed. It will become more lethal with version 3F installed even since that Red Flag war game version. It dodges rain drops at Mach 1.6 and the Bumble can’t fly that fast. It drops bombs faster than a concrete boat launching, but on a dime.

The critics have not included how technology displacement is floating this concept. The new school of thought is not in dog fighting. It is supersonic techno fighting where it doesn’t have to go Mach 2.0. However, the F-35 pulls 9+ G’s. It takes the inside corner away from escaping dog fighters and shoots.

Much has been written about its already “old” stealth capability. You can’t fight what you can’t see approach that the F-35 offers is years away from being caught up with from its onlookers. Its super computer capability fuses data into one giant computer rendering where any two-seater neck jockeys has to retire from eye strain when trying to keep up. This isn’t a dog fight, its annihilation time for any adversary.

If the US wanted to use X-15’s for dog fighters, it could have done that 60 years ago. Having a drag racer for a fighter jet is not wise nor is it practical. The F-35 is more of an extremely smart sports car. Put six of them in the air and it becomes a swarm of Bumble bees attacking a hapless sun bather. The only weakness is its weapons load capability. It may run out of munitions before clearing the battle space. Even its paltry 25mm cannon has too few rounds to sustain a spanking. It was put there in case some day it might need to use it as a last resort. Remembering the early generation fighter pilots carried a side-arm with six shots on the hip as some kind of courage maker when shot down. The 25mm cannon will make a mark when needed.

The critics will sound smart and adversarial players will copy the F-35 or its concept but what lies beneath its skin is where the fight begins.

Boeing’s Corporate Soul Is an Endangered Species

For so long has corporate after corporation strives for a fat bottom line with a straight line drawn by consolidations, quality reductions and a search for the cheapest part. The program engineer sometimes become an endangered species as lay-offs become part of the corporate thirst for just-in-time investor satisfaction. Somehow the main product becomes the investor when abating risk is the Pablum for every investor.

Boeing has taken a wait and see position thus offering the door to hundreds of high paid employees until more sales are generated. The rationale is directed towards future market cycles slumping. As good stewards of investor money it will cut forces. The corporate soul is owned by money and everything else exist because of that money.

Back in the day the corporate mind set was building hugely successful products and the investors will come. The inverse follows with building hugely lean processes where the investor will profit.

Clear back to 2003, Boeing faced a crash by not having hugely successful products. They weren’t family and people love families while its investors love margins, shares, and such things. The mind set coming from investor thinking, “Go fire the fuel truck driver”, if it fattens the profit margin. Boeing aircraft happen to run on fuel.

Boeing has laid off hundreds of its higher skilled engineers because it will fatten the bottom line to do so. However, another perspective is why Boeing hasn’t used these people in its vast organization for the making of superior products which makes them indispensable. It suggests a Boeing waste of personnel has occurred and they must “go” because investors demand a reduction in force before stock prices can increase.

The simplistic rationale becomes traditional for its corporate-investor relationship. The micro-managing of expense items is the tweak for inspiring investments during a down sales year. In fact by years end when Boeing sales supersedes its competitor, Boeing stock will rise, while those “dispensable” engineers are long gone.

If it can be done cheaper with fewer people is the corporate engine of success. This happens too often in corporate world. The older concept of building the best is a risky gamble when profits are wrung out of cheap things becomes better motto to live by. No longer are things made for the pleasure of the customer but for the pleasure of investor.

This is more of an Allan Mulally story than a blog idea. Allan Mulally ran the Boeing commercial division until the Ford Motor Company had swept him away. Why? Because his vision is what a failing car company needed. Allan led the Boeing wide-body charge in the early 21^st century the he engineered ford to its success. He defied the corporate conventional wisdom of cutting cost until becoming rich then leaving. An engineer had a vision to build it best and everything else falls into place. He was no cost cutting bean counter saving the corporate millions for the profitable investor. He was a sound old school performer who wanted to make it great or don’t do it at all.

In spite of its moon-shot problems encountered during the 787’s early program. The Mulally die had been cut. Boeing would take it to the next product level that even its competitor would fear to tread. His engineering sense made it so.

Since the arrival at Ford, Alan Mulally and even later his retirement, Ford has achieved a remarkable automotive turn around. They make a product people love. In fact being a big Chrysler fan, I have since lost interest in its product, because Ford brings a new game to the table which works well for me. The Chrysler-Fiat merger made me think more about Ford than anything.

Now corporate stiffs run Boeing. Engineers are being laid-off as may show less respect to the customer than for its investors is revealed. Boeing is not using its human resource well then having to lay off engineers. It tells me Boeing is run by a different breed of leadership which adheres to its main job of packing golden parachutes.

The HP example of an emerging leader in the computer world until they embarked onto the slippery slope of corporate self-service. It has shrunk, reduced, and imploded itself for the sake of corporate self-enrichment over customer satisfaction. Caught in the middle are its people who are slowly disappearing due to lay-offs and retirement packages. Soon it will be another American memory of how stockholders will reinvest into something else.

When a person refers to a corporate soul, it refers to what purpose the corporation has for being. Is it for its customers or is it for its leadership?

Where Does The 777-8X Fit

The 350 seat 777-8X has exciting potential for many airlines needing fills for seasonal campaigns such as trans-traveling the globe on any seasonal schedule. An Air New Zealand snippet in today's news cycle has hit on a place for the 777-8X. The "Travel Talk" is quoted as:

Air New Zealand...

"The airline currently operates a 302 seat Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner aircraft on the year round route with flights between 3-4 times weekly. From late September 2017 until early March 2018 the route will be upgraded to a 312 seat Boeing 777-200ER for the majority of flights, with the Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner continuing to supplement it."

There it is, a place for the 777-8X. It seats about 350 and really goes the distance. Air New Zealand could expand operations with 787-9's and then move a seasonal route in by using the 777-8X. The interesting observation for any two tier aircraft venture become an attractive concept using a variety of wide body frames. The 787-9 is great for intercontinental travel and the 777-8X becomes the pinch hitter chasing seasonal surges. The 777-8X is in the up to 8,000 mile range. It can chase the seasons anywhere on the globe and fill the cabin with 350 holiday passengers. Air New Zealand must be looking at the 777-8X if it uses the 777-200 currently for junkets.

However, the Air New Zealand offering is not a one off situation while many other airlines could expand using a combo of the 787-9, and then reposition with a 777-8X in an ever changing seasonal clientele. Once an airline can position the ultra-long range behemoth for Canadian summers and then broad the expanse of the Pacific winters, the route switching and utility of the 777-8X becomes a preferred tool in the market place travel kits.

Air New Zealand unconsciously placed the 777-200 into its rotation so it also means other Airlines have similar strategies in play. The 777-200 is a useful tool and the 777-8X is a dashing experience cross broad expanses chasing the seasons.

The F-35 Will Soon Move To Full Rate Production

The official acronym is not yet revealed for pushing out 100 F-35's a year from Lockheed's Big Texas doors. Winging It, after exhaustive research has come up with FRP replacing the LRIP status over the next year. Low Rate Initial Production or LRIP has been the constant reference since 2007 as the chart below reveals.

F-35 History Chart:

As of March 31, 2017 Lockheed Martin has delivered 231 of the F-35's V generation. Looking at the chart above are the Salmon colored lines worth noting. The first line marks about 210 F-35's delivered by mid-January 2017, completing the contracts for LRIP 1-8. Lot 12 denotes FRP moniker.

However, 2017 will start burning through the LRIP-9 contract “back lot” during 2017, resulting in a breaching of its LRIP-10 lot in the first half of 2018. There are two terms in play in the above chart. One is the noted LRIP contract unit number and the other is the actual production number delivered. The far right column is just a pacing number not based on actual deliveries but a straight slope for LRIP contract delivery pacing. When the LRIP-10 contract units enter the factory floor, Lockheed will rapidly approach FRP as the chart indicates a predictive FRP status for contract lot 12. An arbitrary pace increase is exampled by a 100 unit jump when LRIP-9 units are being built. Currently as mentioned the Lockheed/F-35 has finally exhausted the LRIP-8 contract backlog and now has about 25 % of the LRIP-9 contract units completed when it reached 231 units delivered at the end of March 2017.  

A convoluted view of having two quantitative attributes in play with contract numbers and its actual production numbers examined, but understanding both numbers helps for future reading when a report says 231 F-35's have been delivered an observer can see what contract is the 231st unit has come from and how many F-35's are expected in a current year. As of the end of March, 2017, it could be expected about seventy more F-35's will be delivered in 2017. 

Forecasting Boeing 2017, Huh

Boeing will drop hundreds of engineers soon as its sales team reports a down year. Anyways that's my take on the Boeing memo to "bubble" employees otherwise known as last hired first fired or turning 55 is so hard to do Boeing work groups.

Memo Quote:

"We are moving forward with a second phase of involuntary layoffs for some select skills in Washington State and other enterprise locations," the memo said. "We anticipate this will impact hundreds of engineering employees. Additional reductions in engineering later this year will be driven by our business environment and the amount of voluntary attrition."

Okay so 2017 sucks to be in Boeing's Workers Anonymous Union (WAU) or fondly referred to as "wow" with those who jockey at a CAD. 

Boeing's VCMCO Explaining To The Shop Steward What's Up With That

see seven or eight or seven paragraphs below for what is a VCMCO??

The WAU disciples are facing what sales call a down year and somebody has to pay while stockholders can invest into more Boeing stock when incentivized by the WAU layoffs.

Boeing is "moving forward", so speaks the memo to the minions. Every "cube" matters group is hosting last day office parties months ahead of the ax falling on hundreds of engineers who have little justification for being there in front of its CAD screens. Drawing lines from the engine to the stern of anything with wings is not needed since sales are forecasted sluggish. "Analyze this" is the battle cry coming from corporate top floors sitting above the engineers. Sales are sluggish in 2017 and Boeing will retrain engineers for finding gainful restaurant work from the North West to the South East, for those who "want fries with that".

The forecast signal from Boeing memos are more important than just a few hundred engineers. Production is full steam ahead and no production workers should worry during the remainder 2017.

The pending layoff is an efficiency and expense line item move for the stockholders. Boeing will hire more engineers next year. After-all, the 737 Max and 787-10 are now flying. The 777X program is too far north to worry about engineering program lay-offs at this time. The problem is Boeing has no up and coming new airplane project requiring more engineers. There are 10's of thousands of Boeing engineers remaining at work while even if 1,000 engineers are canned, it becomes a mere brow sweep of the back hand.

The wow union rep stands aghast at Boeing's signal to the masses as if Donald Trump were running things. After-all the union is trying so hard to cure workers from work related habitations with its twelve step program and they are only on step 3. Workers Anonymous Union will strike if forced into a lay-off. The chief argument is how can Boeing engineers not work at work during a lay off?

A loud upper floor back slap is heard down stairs after the memo was distributed and reported in the news cycle. Going 4-5 years to engineering school is no guarantee of continuous employment after 55. Those who go to their first class reunion could be dismissed. Going to class reunions is a rite of passage just as the pink slip is a badge of honor for those students who still have loans outstanding.

WAU union demands a meeting with Boeing Engineering executives. The question is posed to upper management, "why can't we not work?” in perfect cube grammar? 

The executive answers with an affirmative huh? "If engineers can finding something to do to support the sales campaign in 2017, they can keep their jobs", says the Vice Chief Minion of CAD Operations (VCMCO). "However, we have this memo voted upon from the board and the copy machine has issued it to everyone. It will take until 2018 before the board runs out of copy machine toner and thus reversing this memo, in question."

The wow guy pipes in with strong tones, "The reduction in force engineers will remove the copy machines and its toner before the first of June if lay-offs occur."

The VCMCO provides Boeing leadership jargon to the WAU shop steward,... 

"It is "our" opinion that the fact finding committee after exhaustive research has come to an imperative conclusion, it is its opinion which demands a reduction in force. The research also concludes those who have an anonymous union work card are not needed until further notice for which the copy machine will advise the WAU of any changes, is that clear?" The shop steward succinctly says, "wow"!

The VCMCO then retorts, "Further-more, the board has advised a determination for all engineers that sales numbers are low and will advise at which time if a sale is made with any of the the single aisle, duo aisle or military segments for which a reconsideration becomes eminent for any announcement concerning the work force!"

The shop steward replies, "Huh".

Then we are in agreement with our huh's, say the VCMCO?