The F-35 Is Germany's Turkey

Germany made a decision recently "not to buy the F-35". It was a leading European advise and consenter for having the F-35 for Nato equipment and now has turned 180 degrees going another direction opting for 4th Gen fighters built in Europe. Nato members are mystified by Germany's decision since they took German recommendations buying the F-35.

It becomes political not unlike the Erdogan's situation where Turkey opted out of the F-35 program over S-400 Russian missiles. Turkey got itself into a situation it "could not get out of".  It now finds itself on the verge of having Nato get out of Turkey. Politically speaking it will be Erdogan's downfall as Turkey's president. It will be a giant "cluster" for Germany to fly typhoons in the face of an F-35 squadron. Yes US resolve and compliance is that strong in both areas of influence. Russia is testing the American allies trees to see what nuts will fall out after shaking vigorously at its base. The "never mind" routine for both countries will go badly if either Germany or Turkey wants back into the F-35 program after a political debacle is realized in the respective countries. They were warned on how the regions must be defended and now it will be stuck with a cheaper paper bag to hold the defense together with Russian influence.

Trump is not a diplomat only a straight shooter with a six-gun from the hip. Germany and Turkey didn't get the Trump memo, "do what you promise not what America does". Even though Germany's righteous indignation may have been a feel-good moment, the pain that follows may be too extreme to bare in the long run, the F-35 is that good and the costs remain reasonable when it goes to 80 million per F-35A fighter jet. Spending decisions for every large entity like Germany and Turkey take years to formulate and a quick decision is made well in advance to not buy the F-35, like dropping the F-35 programs from its playbooks becomes a disaster at the political level.

Once the F-35 reaches full fruition in forty years, the short time political doers will long be gone and war will already have happened where the F-35 successfully was used and the typhoon could not stop an S-400 system from shooting that Typhoon down over Germany (by the year 2030). However, the NATO F-35 takes out the S-400 for Germany's sake. Isn't life grand when neighbors put the fire out when the homeowner uses its bedding to smother a raging fire instead of a fire truck like the F-35.

Just saying those F-35 critics have no vision for the program. Developmental stage for the F-35will end when it retires. Mitigating warfighter risk is the F-35 program it changes as technology changes meaning a hypersonic weapon deployed will have a countermeasure with the F-35  program in place. Technology will be a plug and play feature for the F-35. Germany's typhoon option or other 4th Gen fighters are hard-wired for the long haul as the battle space changes during a conflict. Remember how a Camillion changes its cover? Or a spider comes along with a new version of poison with no human resistance embedded in its skin? That's the concurrency idea of change but it has to perform a base quality which it finds itself at this time as in any other R&D project. 

The F-35 is not out of R&D nor will it ever become out of R&D and fixed design is the antithesis of the F-35 concept. It's too American looking beyond the horizon and Germany has bullet points guiding its thinking and Turkey has cultural dissonance with America to even consider the F-35 even though it has a technology stake in its making. 

America will have to do the F-35 alone and leave political thinking out of the formula to succeed.

Boeing Is Keeping Its Nose Down

...and to the grindstone fixing its MCAS rationale. Here are talking points from CT Post.

·       "Boeing has come under scrutiny in recent months for its failure to disclose the presence of the Maneuvering Characteristic Augmentation System (MCAS) on its Boeing 737 Max airliners. 

·       The existence of MCAS came to light only after the crash of Lion Air Flight JT610 in October.

·       On Monday, Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg explained why the company didn't disclose the existence of the system to pilots while challenging the media's characterization of MCAS as an anti-stall system.

·       "It's fundamentally embedded in the handling qualities of the airplane. So when you train on the airplane, you are being trained on MCAS," Muilenburg said. "It's not a separate system to be trained on."

So Boeing wanted the 737 Max to handle like the 737 NG and did not correct an automated anti-stall system from calamity. Go to the article's main link above for your further review. The unintended consequence of a nose down crash has caused the death of over 350 passengers and crews. Pilots were unaware of an automated system flying the airplane under certain conditions (like a failed MCAS sensor). Mainly, an MCAS sensor failure followed by an automated system fly-by -inaccurate data condition. The plane crashes while pilots cannot restore it to a flight worthy condition. The president of Boeing is scrambling for the tall grass to save the company.

The fix must go through a long process of flight testing and computer updates. When sensor (s) fail then the pilot is notified of the failure and given complete control of flying under this condition. Secondly, the pilot has a failsafe procedure to recover the aircraft through training if a sensor ever fails again. Finally, there is installed duplicity of sensors if one or both fail the pilot can recover. Automation is only as good as its design or program driving that design. Commercial aviation is not ready for drone travel at this time. A competent pilot with a strong flying skill set is required to override the intent of automation or its failure. In other words, a pilot must be given the mechanisms and ability to fly an aircraft in the event of these kinds of sloppy bottom line thinking. Going out of business is an option but killing innocent passengers is not an option. Boeing must reconcile this kind of corporate mentality towards passenger safety.

No matter how many times Boeing says it was "not our fault nor we didn't know. It is in a dangerous business and should take appropriate measures to assure its product is protected by every means possible. It lacked redundancy with its MCAS system and lacked a professional sense for installing a risky feature for the benefit of giving pilots a sense they are flying a prior model 737. Insanity is the mother of all bad ideas. The president of Boeing has just fallen on his sword, hoping not to bleed to death when he says the system is not an anti-stall mechanism but rather a pilot aid for making the Max feel like its flying like the 737 NG!

The Boeing Bong Show

Boink, Boeing just revealed its ugly inner child. A Corporation running for stockholder expectation way beyond its capability to build a safely configured aircraft. When did Boeing go Boink? Back when the 757 was shelved and the 787 was promoted as the next big thing. It was about the stockholder and not the passenger hence two 737 Max bite the dust for some lackadaisical MCAS system which couldn't see itself out of a Max nosedive. Boeing has been called out, but its stock remains a strong happening even with mishap amiss from its chief moneymaker, the 737 Max family.

Okay, got that Boeing bashing out of the way. Capitalism is not defined by the stockholder value but a better product for the best price in the market and Boeing slopped out a stockholder pleasing MCAS system. No one had an idea of how it would affect the 737 Max during an electronic failure with the angle of attack mechanism. Let the stockholder beware, your worst enemy is a company who values investment over the product soundness. Having cheaper straw placed in a cheaper broom is not always in your best interest nor does it help someone's Golden Parachute. Cheaper straw may bring those parachutes down to earth harder than a faulty MCAS system which no one knows anything about. To all those workers plugging and playing the 737 Max to the flight line, I'm sorry!

The top 100 people at Boeing Co. should now jump out the side door of its cargo planes. It's do-over time back at the barn, and that's where this saga is headed before another golden parachute is popped out the corporate backpack. Bring on the Super Pax or the next iteration of a single-aisle aircraft. Either its called Pax for the passenger for just old fashion "peace". The big difference that is made for the customer and not the stockholder. The Pax entry into Service will come about 2032 as Boeing tries to find its corporate soul in the process. The expectation is not stock value but just plane old survival as a big world market player.

Welcome To The Continuous Taxpayer.

Points to ponder.

• Taxpayer's don't really cover Government costs or spending
• Continuous is defined as an F-35 frame with continuous systems, development, and weapons added
• The F-35 is a continuous cost which The Taxpayer can't cover
• Like all systems before it, the F-35 will be on a continuous flight trajectory
• The F-15-EX is not the last F-15 model built by Boeing
• Continuous is the world's currency
• World's Currency is a synonym for US Dollar 

The F-35 is the most expensive aircraft system ever built. The US taxpayer believes it pays for this system for the defense of this country. The F-35 costs exceed what taxpayers can contribute. A blank check supports what the world needs as a "defense weapon". The F-35 is becoming that weapon and it will continue to add new capabilities into infinity and beyond on its frame.

A new airframe will be built called Gen 6. It will house better all of the F-35 attributes, only in a more advanced and expanded frame, thus continuing the costs of air defense for the world. A Gen 6 will go Mach 2+. It will have new coatings embedded on its skin to defeat electronic surveillance (radars et al)  without reapplying new coats of an electronic deflection matrix as found on the F-35. A Gen 6 will be called something beyond the F-35 in a numerical sequence but it is conceptually a repurposed F-35 strategy. An all-purpose and all systems superior fighter for every military branch. Aviation wings will need flying bomb trucks like an F-15 EX  complimenting the F-X progressions. 

The cost will continue as war never ceases its march on humankind. War is a never-ending element for humanity. Making a profit follows war before and after its march towards another war 's end and its cause of war. The cause of war is the human ego found in human beings. Not affording systems of war is more deadly than the weapons used. War is never fought without the perception of wealth or power in play. Kim Jung Un has a big ego. Donald Trump has a big ego!

War is the battle of egos (see WWI and WWII). Expect a war with Gen 6 warplanes.

Boeing's Blue Berry Bash

"Holy trash can Batman", there are candy wrappers under the 787's insulation wraps. A shaving here and a  shaving there adds up quickly, as in getting it out the door yesterday. Twelve hours sitting in one spot leave your tools and then go home. Wait the next shift is already working and it's not their job to pick up after 1st shift mess this plane is leaving in five hours and so goes the Blue Berry Bash at Boeing's profit first for stockholder meetings. It is a margin driven company. Alfred E Newman may lose his job at the top of the heap but nobody will be there to empty the trash.

Chinese Want To Break American Will

There are two factors in war, Means and Will? In World War II America attacked Hitler's means with the incessant bombing of Germany. However, German Will had been broken before Germany's capitulation occurred. Hitler's Germany failed using an invincible ideology to win the battlefront. Robert E Lee failed at Gettysburg battle to break the North's will for war and Lee knew there would be no Southern victory of the war because Northern Will remained intact after Gettysburg. The North already had superior resources and troop numbers. If Means equal 1 and Will equal 1, then 1x1='s 1. But if Will is reduced to 0 then 1x0=0. Will at 0 wins the war for one side and loses for the other side. The Chinese know this axiom of war. The nation with the greatest means and greatest Will win the war. The goal is to defeat an adversary by driving its Will to 0.

China is looking at a missile shot against a US aircraft carrier (Ford class) in order to sink it and break Americas Will for an Asian sphere of influence throughout the region. America knows this as does China. A war from means, suggests, the battle continues until some nation's Will is reduced to 0. Loss of means can also reduce Will to 0 in a hurry. 

The South started its fight with the North having little or no means compared with its adversary, the North. China would like to destroy American will out of Asia. Losing an American aircraft carrier is a gamble because America already has 12 more carriers in stock and American resolve will grow with the angst of losing one of its carriers. China would have to show a greater act of war than one missile shot at American real estate. It finds itself in the same position Japan held at the onset of WWII. The American will is that sleeping giant Japan feared. Means came along after America awoke and won WWWII. The Atomic Bomb destroyed Japan's Will. Germany lost its Will on the frozen sod of Russia

China is tinkering with destroying American Will through disruptive measures. Politics in this country is the most vulnerable target which is why Russia tries to influence politics the most because it has lost its "means" race against America. China is building means but probably cannot catch the US any time soon with its own means and can only hope to destroy its Will which is uncertainty with a most likely destructive outcome. Risk of failure is too high for China at this time when attempting a sinking of a US Aircraft Carrier.

What's More Deadly, The F-35 supply Chain or the S-400

Much has been made of Turkey's acquisition of the Russian S-400 missile battery purchased by Nato's Turkey. "It's an invasion on Nato", the US proclaims. Since the Russians will be there to install the S-400 missile they will become privy to F-35 secrets as Turkey not only supports parts and engineering to the vast US/Lockheed program and it would be flying up to 100 of its type within its own Airforce. The Russians are licking its chops to get its hands on just one F-35 to defeat the F-35 purpose.

The US has drawn a line in the sand. Either buy the F-35 or the S-400 but not both. It's not about the F-35's ability or the S-400's internals but its about access to the respective programs. Russia wants to know how sensor fusion really works and the Americans already know how the S-400 missile really works. The US has more to lose in this boxing match and it doesn't want a fight that is unessescary. The F-35 is too valuable to the US compared with the Russian S-400 system. It is a belief that Russia is more brag than fact concerning its own military-industrial complex. The S-400 is already defeated using the Pentagon mentality.

Turkey is now playing the SU-57 card saying it will buy the Russian premiere jet if the US F-35 deal falls through. The US is shrugging at Turkey indicating "and your point is"! Turkey is sliding down a perilous path trying to leverage NATO/US aspirations with a good SU-57 deal. It already holds the US by the throat by making F-35 parts and supplying F-35 technology supporting the Lockheed program. That in its self is leverage or so it seems. The US is already porting the Turkish contribution over to the US controlled F-35 sub-partners. The US only needs time to cut Turkey out of the F-35 equation completely. Russia can't even field a fighter wing of SU-57's for its own needs, so how will it replace the 100 F-35's ordered by Turkey? So how will Russia field 100 SU-57's to Turkey with dumbed down features and supply high end features only reserved for the mother country, Russia?

It should be called a Turkish bluff. But the US is yawning at the bluff as it prepares to lose Turkey from NATO. It is sending the signal, " Go ahead Turkey, become Russia's problem child, we have a better plan "B" than the current plan "A" with you in the mix." Yes, its a US military set back only with time as the main victim. The US is making up time by keeping Turkey busy with negotiation and peripheral issue issues. The Patriot missile dropped by Turkey is a card played, as it already was going play the S-400 card next. The SU-57 card Turkey will play is countered by secrets the US holds. Remember, Turkey is not an adversary, but a spoiled member of NATO.  It's just that Turkey will have to go it alone in any regional conflagration. Turkey claims it needs self-defense options and is playing hardball pitting Russia against the US. Isreal doesn't care nor does the US if Turkey has to use Russian equipment securing its own region. "Just don't come knocking if you exceed a no-fly zone outside of Turkey."

No fly means no missiles or jets crossing airspace outside of its own national borders. That is the trump card the US holds during card play with Turkey. The US doesn't care if Turkey is in Nato or if the F-35 program is intertwined with Turkey because it has already begun plan "B". The US is already six months down the road from being strangled by Turkey's neck hold over the Patriot missile and F-35  deals it didn't or did make respectively. If you think there wasn't written in the F-35 deal paperwork forbidding Turkey from interacting found on the US adversary list, then you are greatly mistaken. The US, in order to have Turkey to make F-35 parts and supply engineering, was only given if they bought 100 F-35's as a partner. Buying Russian military equipment was a violation of the deal.

Now that Turkey is this far into the deal, it feels it has the US over a barrel. The US think tank has already broach that "what if" question whether Turkey would bolt after firmly entrenched into the F-35 program. "Bolting" is leverage to get a better position against the US. This is also true with all US partners in the F-35 program. 

Canada is one nation in mind as it plays with the US at "arms" length. The US doesn't have friends, it only has opportunist in the world market place. Turkey is playing badly and the US has already closed the book on Turkey. It has sent the message out to Turkey, 

"please buy those Su-57's from Russia or something else like the Su-35 and don't fly them outside of Turkey or they will be shot down because you violated the good faith deal we had with each other over those S-400 missiles as you spit in our face." 

The US F-35 supply chain won't stop, even without Turkey involved. The S-400 missile won't fly over US allies heads because the patriot missile will be in place at a platform in the Mediterranian. Isreal, Greece, and Iraq have skin in the game. The US is partnered with those countries making the S-400 purchase a direct reference to those nations which has its backs towards the US. Turkish resolve for Russia's military complex is a loss of the greatest proportion. It has traded for the S-400 and Russian military equipment at a bargain price leaving it
undefended from itself. Turkey has at its back Russia and its loosely knit family of "friends" not to forget Syria. The F-35 supply chain is more deadly than the S-400 missile.

MCAS And The Max

A "what-if story" about why?

The two 737 Max 8 each crashed with similar or if not exact circumstances when the two Boeing aircraft plunged to its demise with all aboard dying. Boeing, the maker, appeared to have installed a trap on the aircraft called an MCAS system, not unlike a remote control for your That would automatically turn channels once the up arrow was clicked. However, no one would know what to do if the sensor failed at the end of the control. The remote would not function the TV. The viewer only had about a minute to manually turn on the TV if arising from the chair and going over and turning the TV back on before it permanently crashes into the carpet killing all the channels available once and for all. Viewers never had to manually change from the side buttons of the set. In fact, a relic of an old wheel only the repairmen can operate, if a TV repairman even exists today. The viewer might try by turning channels manually. All the viewers in the room were born with a remote in its hands, No one knew about TV functions with buttons and wheel actions. The remote is how TV functions!

Boeing only engineered the MCAS system to work in a stall and it never figured what if MCAS remote sensor doesn't work or the batteries went dead so it would fail. The viewers in the room got rid of their rabbit ears decades ago and didn't know what to do. MCAS sensor failure occurred and there was no manual telling a viewer what to do in case of an emergency. In fact, the showroom guy in electronics from where the TV was purchased was quoted as saying, "look in the kitchen drawer or end table for an electronics manual". The viewer in the last seconds of TV operation went to that "kitchen" drawer and saw not only one manual but dozens. The manual sitting in the drawer on top was for a Sony watch copyrighted 1992. There was no recent addition for the Max 8 TV stand or even for the battery installation for the MCAS. The viewer had only seconds to act so they went back to the living room and turned the TV back as all sensible TV junkies would do. After all, they are not TV engineers just operators of the TV guide and the recorder. The MCAS means Must Consult A System. 

What system? which doesn't work after it loses its remote sensor having no batteries. The viewer reflects on the last guidance given in viewer's class. "We are all going to die." The FAA is still looking in that stuffed kitchen full of antiquated electronic and kitchen appliances manuals for a solution. It is seeking an answer during the next year and studying what viewers who only had seconds for correct action preventing a massive TV crash for which they were never trained for in the first place. No one at Boeing never considered the obvious, what if the MCAS system fails?

Boeing Needs The 797 Now More Than Ever

President Trump offers the idea to rebadge the 737 Max in light of its recent failures killing 346 passengers. Boeing is searching for a way to bring the 797 ideas to fruition before the two accidents occurred, having failed its engineering point installed on the newly done over 737 Max. Trump is on to something. Boeing is planning a 737 remake by the 2030s.  Boeing may be stalling for time to launch a new line-up of aircraft after the 777X takes-off. The 787 is doing nicely at this time. Winging It has come to a conclusion over Trump's statement of rebadging the single-aisle 737. 

Build a clean sheet single-aisle super modern frame with engine acceptance having the most efficient configuration, Call it the Freeliner. It will set you free. Make it a Max 8 carrying capacity, and then a Free Liner 10 holds 205 seats.

Build the much anticipated 797 called a "B-Liner" holding between 220 to 270 seats with dual aisle sensibility with a 5, 000 plus range. Having a Freeliner and B-liner in your stable will complete a Boeing family of aircraft. 

The Max 8 accidents have pushed Boeing aviation to the next level. The tragic accidents with its Max must be a lesson learned for all people who travel by air. Corporate objectives must take a back seat to customer safety. Boeing must stop economizing development for corporate bottom lines. It must build successfully safe airplanes first and always and nothing short of safe. If it can't do that and stay profitable, then it should get out of the business or shrink it back behind its safe line of experience in building airplanes. Boeing must retrench its corporate model to a safe spot and follow a Trump quip of renaming the Max, is just a glimpse of what may come sooner rather than later. A Boeing remake from scratch of its product line marks having a new sense of direction. The time is now to make the difference as it so has pursued in the last generation of aircraft making. Bring on a Freeliner and a B-Liner and set travelers free and in a straight line. 

You Don't Hear Stuff, Just Apologies: A Boeing Condition

Since the Max 8 fell from the sky, Boeing stopped making airplanes so it seemed. Very little coming from Boeing about its 777X gets a mention. Even its roll-out was attended only by Boeing employees well after its own and long mentioned 777X coming out party. Boeing went quiet on that big bird. 

Now that this is observed, it is safe to say a lot of things are happening at Boeing. Apologies and MCAS are the headlines, but in reality, the activity of the 777X is a monstrous project which hasn't skipped a beat. It is being fitted out just the same for first flight and that will be soon. It may occur without fanfare or public Network TV at the forefront of reporting. It will occur at Everett, Wa though, hopefully in daylight. 

Boeing has gone underground since the 737 Max crashes and only reports what will help its aviation cause. The 777X program has become a very skittish affair. The new Boeing norm is if it's successful, let's report that success after its success. 

No longer are live shots of high-risk factory door openings or inside the airplane view of banks of equipment bolted in place before first flight. Its own website shows aging content of the 777X from last year which has been watched over and over again without nary a new photo of what's up with the 777X. 

The 777X might fly silently into the sky and land successfully with a full report following the accomplishment. Gone are the bolden days of first flight unless it knows something that will startle the world back to everything is okay once more. The Max accidents have been a major setback to Boeing other than just bad news. It has changed how Boeing faces the world from top to bottom. The signal of change happened at the 777X first rollout, a private party. By the end of April, the 777X will fly but no mention of this event is coming from Boeing as it prepares this aircraft, it can't risk failure of the first flight.

One might say everything is riding on its success to gain back world confidence in the airplane maker. It could happen to the other guy but they are watching closely as to not make the same mistakes that Boeing made. Being overconfident is in its own decision making. Pushing through assumptions not fully vetted because it would cost profitability for a program. 

Now Boeing is spending money and resources on an airplane, the 777X, with only about 350 booked orders. Since, if successful, there will be thousands of orders going forward plus the prestige of being a fantastic airplane maker. It's not that to tragic crashes happened on its single-aisle offering but it's in a time when crashes have been eliminated for the most extent. Two crashes and multiple occurrences of the same type of problem has exposed Boeing's thinking on what is an expense and what is a safety margin. The pursuit of a profit margin has been exposed in Boeing's leadership. 

Therefore, go underground with anything until it is done right then report. It is only a survival instinct for any creature in harm's way. The first 777X flight will be held close to Boeing's vest.