July Closes: Boeing with Dream Production Lines at 14 a Month Pace

July 2016 closes with a strong 787 production performance as the 787 has reach the eighty-second 787 delivered for 2016 by July's end. Boeing is exceeding guidance of Twelve 787 a month as announced earlier in the year for its benchmark during 2016. However, this footrace is leaving Airbus in the dust as it will take three more years before it can even approach the Boeing 787 production pace, at which time Boeing should have already announced a fourteen a month pace for 2017. 

This amounts to approximately 144 dream-liners a year pace (12/mo) for 2016 and another 168 dream-liners (14/mo) during the year in 2017. This does not account for months needed when producing a lower monthly number during a production ramp up. 

The year 2016 will come in under 144 units and is expected to deliver about 138 Dream-Liners this year because of the ramp-up period under produces stated goals of 12 a month. 

Eighty-two YTD Dreamliners is Key Number Below: The 1173 787's ordered is an unconfirmed number, but from press reports this is the number that should be the total orders when Boeing confirms all transactions.

The 787-8 has significantly lower numbers produced each month than the 787-9 during this last quarter. About 71% of the 787-8 ordered have already been delivered, where 23% of the 787-9 have been delivered against what has been ordered. The delivery number per month by percentage reverses in that about out of fourteen 787 delivered in a month totaling 70% are 787-9's and less than 30% total 787-8's delivered each period. 

In ninety days Boeing has delivered twelve 787-8's and thirty 787-9's with a ratio of 28% 787-8's, and 71% 787-9's while analyzing its ninety day total from forty-two 787 Dream Liners delivered. This pace alone if projected out to 12 months would equal an annual pace of 168 Dreamliners a year.

The F-35 Climbs The Hill In Utah

There's Eglin in Florida for the F-35A and Yuma with the F-35B for the Marines. But not least on the list is the real star found with the F-35 program, Hill AFB Utah. What's the difference between the Patuxent River Naval Air Station in Maryland for the Navy and Hill AFB in Utah,­­­­­ and what's the deal about Hill and its F-35A's? First and foremost Patuxent is a formal training and testing center for domestic and foreign participants in the F-35 development program.

and then...

Here is the: Hill AFB F-35 military only scorecard below:

• 15 F-35's on location
• 12 F-35's ready for IOC
• 21 F-35 Pilots flying daily
• 488 F-35 sorties completed (probably higher @ posting).
• 220 F-35 Maintainers (cream of the crop handpicked personnel)
• 88 consecutive real-time field sorties
• 15 out 16 field Bomb successes with one faulty bomb failure.
• Undefeated in the air to airfield combat tests.

What does this all mean? The F-35 is better than what naysayers can muster against its viability as a superior air command fighter. The critics came from 2015 going against everything F-35. A Hill AFB pilot who since has come from Eglin in 2015 has stated, 

"The plane I flew at Eglin is not even close to the ones I fly at Hill". 

"The Hill aircraft are so much better, more prepared and functional matching up to its current potential, it would be unfair to compare it with the circa 2015 Eglin F-35" (paraphrased quotes). 

Concurrency is demonstrated with the Hill maintenance model. There were several flaws discovered from testing concerning G-force fuel distribution limits and an inherent vulnerability from lightning strikes. Even though this is not all the flaws the F-35 has to overcome, it was a field test for its service members’ maintainers, testing if they could resolve problems on station going beyond its normal maintenance issues while using service maintainers for resolving F-35A upgrades.

The answer came quickly with this "A-Team" of maintainers. They prepared twelve F-35's applying updates to the airframe and by solving the G-force fuel problem and then maintainers prepared the F-35 for lighting strikes, per maintenance bulletins (important IOC to-do list item) coming from the manufacturer, Lockheed Martin. Mission was accomplished and it also included computer software updates installed on the Hill F-35's for the first dozen fighters. 

Concurrently, the Lockheed Martin production line is installing the Hill AFB proven modifications so that Hill's aircraft number 25 coming to the base maintainers will have all updates for those aforementioned issues it had successfully fixed on station with its first fifteen F-35's.

In June, six prepared F-35A's went to Mountain Home for a week fighting against adversarial F-16 and F-15's.

Those are the USAF premier multi-role fighters defending our nation today. The sad part of this exercise is that these fighter types were flying lost against the F-35 and could not obtain a kill unless a flying accident was even to occur. 

The complainers find little solace in the Mountain Home exercise and they have not opine over the recent Red Flag exercise in Nevada which the F-35 recently participated in. Senator McCain has met his F-35 match and was shot down with his own words, The F-35 is "a scandal and tragedy". It’s more like tricky, slippery and once mastered, unfair to others trying to take it out.

In Utah, the F-35 stands up on the "Hill".

Boeing Smokes 'em If They Got 'em

Guidance and projections on corporate earnings is a tricky place. The old adage smoke'em if you got'em (cigars) is in play when it recognizes cost through write downs against stock valuations during current constant times. The numbers after third quarter make even the squeamish turn its color of green into red. Boeing is making adjustments from both the 787 and 767 Tanker program, pushing its stock around on a year over year basis. Actual numbers are found in its stock valuation as it drops and changes with the financial models that are set-up for future improvements, and as it rapidly approaches a "norming" phase for its family of aircraft. Every type is undergoing a vast changes from the 737 Max to the 787 program with only the 747-8's in a doubtful position. 

The forecasts are cast in shadows from vulnerabilities exposed from its KC-46 tanker program costs to its 777X program having some sales uncertainty. Having both the Max and 787-10 stepping forward in the same time slot may certainly arouse some stock pricing angst and will also add to the Boeing risk element for its financials. Hinting at retiring the 747 program is also a signal Boeing is propositioning its next foray into advanced technology by losing the monkey hanging over its head.

In other words Boeing has dumped cost up front so it may proceed forward in a more solid financial position as its new programs come into fruition

In spite of the dangers where Boeing is walking through important program inefficiency, the outlook should improve by year end or the Beginning of 2017 as it maintains solid production output and then benefiting  through generating a cash abundance environment for its commercial programs.

F-35 IOC

A difficult time for Boeing is watching Lockheed Martin have its F-35 reach IOC on August 2nd, 2016. The F-35A Air Force version has proven itself against every IOC requirement thrown in its way. The Initial Operational Capability tests launches the Block 2B lot of F-35 aircraft ready for combat going to the Block 3i level completeness. This next level polishes off the code in a combat workman like manner. It will be able to have true situational awareness for the war fighter and its pilots. This is the fifth generation anchor for its capability. A system that can defeat any enemy instead of relying on agility, speed and physical capabilities matching all fourth generation war fighters. Fifth generation fighters will have data resources coming into the war bird from ground, space and air to air realms. 

A touch screech directs the data to optimal results in a millisecond. The early on pilot testers reported using initial software loads could not maximize the aircraft's fighting purpose going against an F-16. The point of that testing demonstrated the aircraft did not have the muscle against the F-16 where its "brains" were not available for the exercise and the F-35 was no match. 

The second concern was coming from the pilot who could not master its aircraft attributes in combat testing. Otherwise "they" did not know how to utilize the aircraft fighting advantage and relied on conventional skills for which the F-35 was not designed for while lacking a show of force during air to air combat schemes. But when updates to systems occured and pilots understood the theory of warfare from an F-35 perspective it became a smug experience of having the superior position over the F-16, F-15, and any other fourth generation war bird. It wasn't even a contest when aerial fights occurred between the fourth and fifth generation fighter.

At Mountain Home AFB there was a week of sorties, bombings and dogfights with the F-35 and the home teams F-15 participating. The F-15 had professional pilots who flew their war fighter at a level of combat readiness. They knew all the tricks of Air to Air combat. 

The test wing from Hill AFB Utah only had combat capable aircraft for short time where its maintainers had just completed F-35 mechanical and software updates to the aircraft from the perspective of in service operations and not from the Lockheed Martin team doing the upgrades.

The report card showed a wow moment. The F-35 completed 88 sorties without a hiccup while the Air Force team from Hill was operating in the field, and it made fifteen of sixteen successful bomb runs. The F-15 team was mopped up by the F-35 even though they were a high level unit from Mountain Home. They aren't talking about what happened because the F-35 is that good when applied appropriately using all its attributes of a fifth generation fighter. It may be that the F-35 is so much better than advertised it is better to let an adversary find out in combat when it becomes too late for them to rethink how to combat the F-35.

The key transition has moved from muscle 4th generation to sensory fifth generation attributes. Even though it can fly mach 1.6 or 1200 MPH is doesn't have to go faster but is needed to go longer. The DOD is looking at a new jet engine that can hyper cruise on long runs. Both P&W (135) and Boeing are involved in designing and making a jet engine that does not need an after burner mode to get the job done when it needs additional speed on long runs.

With all the complexities found within this fighter it is expected more issues will emerge as just another glitch in a long line of glitches. A rational thinker sees a strong foundation from its initial frame which can accommodate a continuous flow of updates added to the frame. The WIP approach on the F-35 has set the bar high and in 10-15 years, more development can be installed on the very first frames currently in operation. IOC is the starting gun sounding off for the race towards the F-35's vision of always getting better.

Boeing Builds Sales After Farborough

The Boeing company with its customers have announced significant sales post Farnborough event. On July 27, 2016 it was announced that Malaysia Airlines have ordered twenty-five/25 with options 737 Max 8's (total 50) for about $2.75 billion and another six 787-9's to Xiamem  for about 1.4 billion at list prices. The total order book helps the Boeing 787 2016 order outlook, as the 787 has garnered a solid number during 2016 with a net thirty-five Dreamliners booked year to date.

Winging It chart:

This puts Boeing ahead of Airbus for the year after garnering a net 425 single aisle during this year to date even though Airbus had an extremely strong Farnborough sales tally coming from its single aisle reports. Boeing, none the less, maintains a single aisle sales lead for 2016 year to date bookings. It is also noted Malaysia Airlines ordered an additional 25 on option making a total of fifty 737 Max in play even though only twenty-five 737's will be booked at this time.

The 787 orders received a shot in the arm as both Ruili and Xiamen have both ordered six each 787-9's during Farnborough, and then since Farnborough respectively. A total of a net thirty-five 787's have been ordered this year even though Boeing has not updated its order book on its website to date. By month's end Boeing should reflect all changes on its website from post Farnborough sales activities.

Boeing Orders Grow Continually In 2016

In spite of the Airbus' big Farnborough airshow order count Boeing is keeping pace with its rival in a workman like manner. Netting 2016 Orders to date with MOU's (likely finalized in 2016), Boeing has about 460 net Orders when comparing with Airbus numbers of 475 net orders according to each other’s own web site counting YTD data and using reported Farnborough totals not yet entered on as firm orders.

Boeing Sales Chart

Airbus Sales Chart

Boeing 101: Axial Loading On The KC-46 Passes Milesstone C Test

Recently as in this month the KC-46 needed to pass a significant test point before the military can accept and announce the first Lots of KC-46 production for about 19 KC-46's. Boeing hit an Axial Load wall with its C-17 and F-16 tests Earlier this year. The military issued a no-go memorandum before accepting any KC-46 from Boeing. The term bantered about was Axial Loading as a big problem. Going to the internet was the first step in solving a blogging problem about Axial Loading.

As all studious patrons of knowledge, must have a quick course established on the internet for such a problem. Boeing engineers go to school for years studying Axial Loads and have come up with a mechanical solution to alleviate Axial Loading with its KC-46 Boom and fuel delivery system.

Axial Loading 101 Class summary:

"An Axial load is a force administered along the lines of an axis. Axial loading occurs when an object is loaded so that the force is normal to the axis that is fixed, as seen in the figure. Taking statics into consideration the force at the wall should be equal to the force that is applied to the part."

Word Problem: A boy who weighs 60 lbs is pulling a toy wagon having about 200 lbs of bricks stacked in the wagon. The boy comes to a crack in the sidewalk and the wagon stops. The boy must hang onto the wagon handle and pull the wagon through the sidewalk's cracked ridge. A garden hose is also strung through the handle under home water pressure coming from the house. Jerking the wagon over the crack could disconnect the garden hose that is running down inside the wagon's handle, and then cause a blow-out and a big mess for the load of bricks stopped at the sidewalk crack. The boy could not compensate for the change in his Axial Load grip on the wagon handle and the hose stretched and came disconnected. What was the change in force between the Boy, hose, and handle to the wagon causing the blow-out?

The question is run through the boy's tablet and an answer came back instructing him to adjust his grip and lever the wagon over the side-walk crack exerting enough force keeping the the boy to wagon connection stable and the hose connected.

 The A-10 Wart Hog has just successfully completed the Boom full load transfer validating The KC-46 for production.

The KC-46 is the boy and the C-17 is the wagon with a load of bricks. Boeing needed a computer monitoring the ever changing Axial Loads from turbulence and airspeed and then have a mechanical hydraulic input on its boom to stay connected. A drogue and hose line outboard on a wing is a situation normal condition while the A-10, F-16 and C-17 all have been tested on the boom as successful. Thus completing the fueling from the KC-46 and mastering axial loads with its software and hardware fixes. Milestone C is complete awaiting government approval for first production of nineteen KC-46.

Hose refueling without Axial Load Issues

Exit Stage Left Its Not About Boeing But The F-35

Several months is this commentary in the making. The much over-priced F-35 is not Boeing's F/A 18 Super Hornet. The Lockheed martin F-35 came from the same Skunk Works my uncle worked on with the SR-71 "spy plane". I guess you may call me an F-35 neophyte by default, since I've only spent about two years researching and giving developmental commentary on the subject of the F-35.

Here is the very quick and very dirty comments on the F-35. If the US Air Force had any common sensory helmet-head for its decision making or about spending your money from near-do-well to infinity and back. They did it with the Lockheed Martin F-35 extravaganza from 2005 through 2016. A funny thing happened on the way to the Farnborough flight-line. 

Ooh, awe and wow the F-35B showed only its bicep bursting out of its tight paint job during the flying palooka-extravaganza in Britain last week. Denmark proudly smirked we "bought some" then Norway stepped and said, we shot down an F-16 during demo days with our F-35. It was just plain better than the fourth generation fighter aircraft such as the F-16. 

Hill AFB concluded a 88-88 sortie success rate deployed at Mountain Home AFB last month. It bombed its way into the hearts of Generals, Colonels, and flying AF captains when it went 15 for 16 on bombing runs. One bomb was  flawed as its F-35 performed flawlessly on bombing runs at Mountain Home, Id.

Having a new ejector seat design in hand or with Hill AFB maintainers successfully adjusting its Twelve F-35 fighters for IOC simulation standards,  it silences all those complainers, critics and arrogant thinkers who have just left the room since the F-35 program has put together the first usable fighting example maintained by Air Force personnel after installing a block 3i level of sophistication.

Glitches are being secured and retired every day as the LM top 1,100 things to fix list has shrunk as in any progressive developmental flying wonder had from the last century. The Works-in-progress norm for any program continues forward like a countdown just as even if inventing a type of oil for rocket science, as by its fortieth attempt of searching for that special oil, then the F-35 moment has arrived and its not called Water Displacement Formula 40 after a number of 39 attempts glitched. WD-40 is in my tool box today. The F-35 is just short of WD-40 status and the haters are going to hate about the F-35, since it cost this nation its national treasury and it sells copy to say so.

The F-35 has become so advanced at this stage it can't be replicated even by chance will lessor technology employed by Russia or China. They, can't even hack successfully all its secrets if they wanted to do so. There are 100's of businesses in dozens of country's working on this project in secret. Yes, we've been hacked and will continue to be hacked for the next forty years. Even if Russia or China owned the F-35 blue prints at this moment, it would be another twenty years before they could replicate today's working example. In twenty years the F-35 will have evolved beyond the current technological horizon that others are concurrently chasing as LM spins the word concurrency. 

Complexity to do the fantastic is a bridge too far for any consideration. Look at what the US has just gone through making a helmet fit right with its systems. The secret F-35 doesn't just hover, and go Mach 1.6, it is invisible to most radar. There are many more secrets that are undisclosed and will remain undisclosed going forward into the future. Pilots are just beginning to learn how to fight using the F-35. Visionaries did not yet foresee how all the "works" would work under real combat condition, but they did provide a cornucopia of items allowing the pilot's artistry to emerge. The planners had hoped enough tools were provided within the F-35 frame allowing a pilot to write his own combat opus against future combatants. That is the miracle of the F-35, the planners do not even know how good the F-35 will become until after its faced with every conceivable combat scenario.

Glitches are normal for any fantastic idea, but it does not mean the F-35 should be dropped because of its lab testing is coming out from its Initial Trial and Error Mode (ITEM not its IOC) while striving towards a conceptual objective. Let the Skunk Works work, it’s in the American DNA.

The SUM of Boeing's Parts Replayed

Back in 2015 it was written about the gap filler going from the single aisle to duo aisle using the 787-300 concept.  

Winging It references:

Boeing Needs A Cross-Over

The 787-300 Lost But Not Forgotten

Now it is time to revisit the whole topic with a replay of what was said. The Boeing SUM or known as the Super Utility Modality. AKA the 757SUM.

"Boeing couldn't build the 787-300 before it built the 787-800. Its common sense, establishing the benchmark first before defining a cross-over model. A 787-300 had nothing to hold it up like a book-end. No need for a cross-over in 2005. When considering an off-road vehicle or a rugged extra wide cab ranch pickup truck while first building a crossover wouldn't make any sense. How can you make a crossover for suburbia without a trail rated jeep coming first?

Boeing is building a single aisle 737-900 NG-Max for the urban sensibilities, until the ultimate inter urban transporter is made. It must look and act like the 787, while becoming the 757 Super Utility Modality known as SUM, and act like a compliant business tool. It’s the SUM of all its parts from Boeing that is what's missing! The venerable 757 is going to the scrap heap in a workmanlike manner. Boeing accidentally tapped the inter-urban SUM market a long time ago and it mis-identified the big opportunity by cancelling the 757 in 2005. Now it’s faced with a European knock-off jet in the likes of an A321. Boeing, having no articulation on the subject other than "we're good with the 737 and current 787 line-up".

I give Boeing three slaps in the forehead, and three consecutive expletives of "Come On" awarded in a row with its 757 public sentiment. Outstanding, missing how the much loved the 757 is and was! Boeing doesn't need another 757 for its replacement. It needs the abandoned 787-3 remade. A twin aisle replicator for passengers who are dependent on business and pleasure rewards. The airplane crossover concept is a brilliant reminder of soccer moms and grocery getting in the ground world. Big enough to haul the neighbors to school and awesome enough to go on vacation, looking somewhat like the newly Iconic looking 787-9.

Crossing over from single aisle two duo aisle isn't hard to do, "Neil Sedaka". Boeing needs this gap filler taking off from medium sized airports going all the way to San Jose while queuing the music along the way. South West Airlines are you listening? It could take you all the way to South West of Hawaii.

The assigned spot is 220 seats, the assigned range is 6,000 miles. It’s a crossover from single to dual aisle. It has the quaintness of single aisle gawking and the room of seven across for urban sensibilities. It hangs 100 million on the airline customer for each replication it purchases. It crosses-over everything good about Boeing's manufacturing conceptualization even though it is not as wide as the 787-8 or its counterpart. It’s very roomy for the number of seats, and it makes money for everyone even the passengers having sensibly priced tickets for the same commonalities with the 787 family.

Having it bigger than the 737-9, doesn't mean the 737-9 extra-long single aisle is dead. Nor does it threaten the 787-800. The 787-3 has the 787 aggressive design signature for long haul, yet providing the inter-urban frivolity for city hopping, in high density 1-5 thousand mile routes. This crossover is what an airline makes of it, as it defines the low cost of operation.

“It was once stated the 737 single aisle would not benefit from the lighter weight frame of plastics for the offset of development cost compared with the efficiency gained from new technological advances on metal frames. It was also observed at the time, the 787 was still unproven concept, and the risks were too high to go with all plastic airplane models top to bottom. Wise people thought the 787 must matriculate to its completeness and demonstrate performance maximums, before proceeding to the next model. This is witnessed with both metal 737 Max and Partial metal 777X models. Boeing's approach is cautious on technology implementation since its "787 Moon Shot". They have the Golden Fleece in hand with the 787, and will should not go hunting for another overhaul of design and airplane evolution in my own life time.

A 787-3 “new version” for medium body design will have added manufacturing tooling cost for both the supplier and Boeing. But it's not groundbreaking, thus less expensive than doing a 787-3 in 2005. It has all the carry forwards from both the MAX, 787, and 777X programs. It has all the designs lessons learned from the last 10 years. They have the opportunity of repaying already sunk cost on advance technology needing repayment. Boeing could use a crossover program development accessing paid for technology, which it installed in the 787. Engine technology keeps getting better every day. A down sized 787-8 and up sized Max-9 has a 1,000 airplane sales target which would turn a profit for Boeing and compliment both models. All Boeing has to do is find charter customers from China to San Jose within in the Pacific Rim to make it so.

It becomes a financial shim wedged in, securing both new models from the Airbus nit picking on the edges. It's why they call it, the 757 the Gap filler for so long. Now that the 767 has stopped commercial passenger production and the 787 replaces it. The Gap must be addressed before further market erosion occurs. Go ahead, call it a "Gap Filler", cannon fodder, or a lost production leader. The gap must be filled! It’s just as important as the front line players when churning out numbers. My own opinion within is just an "I told you so" effort for Boeing, and having said so, I can sleep better tonight. A 787-3 is an investment for selling all models of aircraft at a higher rate, rather than compartmentalizing a 787-3 as a no go because it doesn't stand on its own. This is a false assumption because Boeing is a SUM of all its parts! A 787-3 revised model then becomes the SUM of all Boeing's parts making the corporation more successful. But make it a mid-body, two aisle inter- urban, and hub busting mover. Ryan Air’s expansion is a plan solved with the 787-3.”

Farnborough Air Show Through Day Three Orders (Updated)

July 13th from England's show, Boeing has steady order climb even though Airbus stole the show with a mega order for its A-321 type from a Malaysia carrier. The Boeing group is still in it to win it for 2016. They have added a broad sampling of aircraft from the announcement category.

The numbers are incomplete as they come from different sources, and Winging It does not have all the facts up-to-date. However, WI relied on Randy's Journal for ciphering out a meaningful tally after completing day three at Farnborough Air Show. The estimated dollar amount has been assign on the tally sheet using list prices with US billions based on list prices. I am on vacation in Montana and spent a marvelous week bonding with the mountains once more and then checked a few items off my bucket list even at that. Thanks to "All Things 787" Blog numbers have been updated.

Boeing Tally:

Okay I'll do Airbus if I have to, I guess. :(


Airbus: Wins!!! The Sand Bagged Order Count and Value