Halloween Numbers Will Scare Airbus October 31, 2015

The October recap culminates, as it almost thrives on pushing and pulling the 787 program to maturation. Through smoke and fire, engine indicator lights and parts chain stalling, the Boeing people can now say, here we are! The chart below show just two less 787's delivered by end of October, compared with all of 2014. It will go forward with another 60 days of production, if considering guidance, it will beat 130 units for 2015. It may go with 144 units, unless Boeing starts its annual factory reconditioning with both Everett and Charleston plants. I will suggest a quiet Christmas for Boeing production, and guess out only about 138 787's for all of 2015.

Airbus Has A Mission and this Mission is chasing Boeing's ghostly 787 numbers; Ding  Dong-Trick or Treat.

With the conclusion of 2015 rapidly approaching it stands to reason more orders are on the way and the 2015 order count will not stay at 50 YTD orders as listed above.

Below is the striking number of 280 787-8's delivered within four years since the first 787 arrived in 2011. Sixty more 787-9's have been delivered as it is positioned for 2016 as the primary type going to customers for the next three years. The tip coming from Winging It, is watch how many 787-10's are ordered.

Leveraging The 787 Has Started

A few airlines are considering expanding its 787 fleet. So today alone the news has reported the following fleet expansion either already done or under consideration.

• Norwegian Has ordered up with Boeing for 19 more 787-9
• Scoot is deploying its continuing delivery for 20 with plans for fleet 787 expansion
• TUI or Thompson is considering another fleet expansion with Boeing for its 787-9's

Why the prepositioning for more 787's? The answer is the first batch is making such a success for each airline already flying the 787. The list will gain length during 2016 as more airlines will buy more 787's from the success of its current fleet of 787's. This is what is called leveraging. Levering an asset value (cash) into another of the same value (787's) when expanding the business. It’s done all the time in business. In this case it moves billions of dollars into the 787 marketplace. This was one of Boeing's strategic development points back in 2007.

"Winging It" sloppy Vision statement: "Once customers get these first 787 into its hands, it will propagate an urgency for more 787's flying more routes through a strategic equipment replacement and route expansions." With what they (Scoot) quickly see with its 787s, is they have an urgent need, as they have already received both 787-8's and 787-9's, which is making Scoot money for leveraging into more 787 aircraft orders.

Airbus customers are not so fortunate since it has a slow delivery of the A350 at five or six in twelve months, there are no A350's in operation for leveraging (money banked) additional A350 sales booked. The Boeing 787 production yeast has risen the 787 Market bread, where Airbus is still serving an unleavened version of its sales pitch. There is no Airbus product leveraging at this time. Boeing's almost 340 units of 787's flying, is putting more cash in the bank, for buying more 787's for its customers.

Boeing Books Both Norwegian and Qantas On Website

Boeing makes it official and now we all can adjust our own tracking charts. Boeing has started its end-of-year push before November. It posted 19 787-9 for Norwegian and five 787-9 for Qantas. Additionally, Qantas converted three 787-8's from sibling Jetstar, into three 787-9 for Qantas. This brings the net total 787's in 2015 for 50 787's ordered with Boeing. However, it has not yet posted "the 24 for EVA 787-10's" yet, as it still remains circling the Boeing paper-work airport until gains landing fees. This should reach a paper shuffle conclusion before year's end.

I still have hopes for a few trickling-in orders plus the Dubai Airshow in a sweep up posting of another total additional 25 orders meeting an over 100 net 787's ordered this year.

Not listed on the Boeing website is the 9 trickling-in 787 from El Al firmed up. It also has leased 6 more not booked, pushing the 787 order book towards 100 for 2015.

Not Yet Booked:

El AL  15 787's both outright purchased and leased through others.

EVA   24 787-10's

Dubai ???

Total  39 yet to be booked, but having a 99% booking certainty

Total net 787 Roundup For YTD 2015 = 89, 787's and still counting

Orders through October 27, 2015: Boeing.com :<<<Link

	737	747	767	777	787	Total
2015 Net Orders	334	-	48	54	50	486

Customers	737	747	767	777	787	Total
AerCap	100	-	-	-	-	100
Air Austral	-	-	-	-	2	2
Air Tahiti Nui	-	-	-	-	2	2
Alaska Airlines	6	-	-	-	-	6
All Nippon Airways	5	-	-	-	3	8
Atlas Air	-	1	-	-	-	1
Australia P-8	4	-	-	-	-	4
Business Jets / VIP Customer(s)	3	-	-	-	2	5
COPA Airlines	51	-	-	-	-	51
Enter Air Sp. z o.o.	1	-	-	-	-	1
Ethiopian Airlines	-	-	-	-	6	6
EVA Air	-	-	-	5	-	5
FedEx	-	-	48	-	-	48
GECAS	2	-	-	-	-	2
GOL Airlines	9	-	-	-	-	9
Jet2.com Ltd	27	-	-	-	-	27
Korean Airlines	-	-	-	5	-	5
Norwegian	-	-	-	-	19	19
Oman Air (SAOC)	20	-	-	-	-	20
Qantas	-	-	-	-	5	5
Qatar Airways	-	-	-	14	-	14
Ruili Airlines	30	-	-	-	-	30
Ryanair	3	-	-	-	-	3
SilkAir	6	-	-	-	-	6
Silk Way Airlines	-	3	-	-	-	3
SMBC Aviation Capital	10	-	-	-	-	10
Sriwijaya Air	2	-	-	-	-	2
Swiss Global Air Lines Ltd	-	-	-	3	-	3
TUI Travel PLC	-	-	-	-	1	1
Unidentified Customer(s)	91	-	-	17	36	144
United Airlines	-	-	-	10	-	10
United States Navy	9	-	-	-	-	9
2015 Gross Orders	379	4	48	54	76	561
Changes	-45	-4	-	-	-26	-75
2015 Net Orders	334	-	48	54	50	486