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Sunday, October 19, 2014

The Tale Of Two Plants, An Epic Digression In Metal Works

Boeing Everett and Boeing Renton are going to the well with its new planes. The 777X and The Max respectively. At the North End of the "Boeing Triangle", is Everett's new under construction buildings for the 777X. The intent is for plastic wing making not unlike the 787 wings made in Japan. Everett must reinvent the 777 in a duopoly building scheme for both the 777 300ER and the 777X projects. It has started by making a satellite building around the 777's ground zero for significant structures assembly, with wings that will attach to the assembled 777X, namely, its complex lifting surfaces made of plastic. Metal large parts constructs can come from Spirit systems by train. Other supplying contractors will feed the beast as specialized parts are built from around the world and shipped to Everett. Including Japan's aviation making submissions.


Puget Journal Biz Journal Photo

Rendering of One Million Sq Ft. Everett Wing plant for the the 777X Below:

Boeing 777X Factory
Puget Sound Business Journal Photo

At the southern tip of "Boeing's Triangle", is Renton, and the MAX. Rather than building expansion's for the MAX they are re-configuring the production floor. They will slot in the 737 Max at its first station inside its current production space. An area it has made available for its first and initial assembly area where it can continue forward, and slide in through insertion to the full production line. The initial aircraft will probably reach completion in that Initial area until mastery of the new Max is achieved. After which a continuous stream will develop for delivery aircraft, once test aircraft are completed, flying and certified by aviation's governing bodies.

Below is the southern tip of "Boeing's Triangle", the Renton, WA Facility and Air Strip.



737 "Max Spot" floor clearing for first construction of the Max aircraft. Note the NG line adjacent to the "Spot" with a fully formed green bodied 737. I anticipate the Max could slide in behind the NG's from this location when Boeing ramps up its delivery production units from the "spot" as soon as testing is complete and approved by aviation authorities.

image/photo
Boeing Photo From Randy's Journal

The final point of  "Boeing's Triangle" is at the apex found at Boeing Field where all new types land and strut its stuff. Both the 777X  and the Max will debut at Boeing Field when inaugurated with a first Landing as the 787 completed its debut.

     Boeing Field, 2008


Boeing Field, Seattle, WA, Circa 1933

















Thursday, October 16, 2014

Airbus Puffs Its Chest Through EASA Certification

The XWB A350 has gained another puffing bench mark with its European Aviation Safety Agency certification greater than the American ETOPS certification for Boeing's 787 family aircraft of 330 minutes. They awarded Airbus an  extra 40 minutes single engine flying time with a  370 minutes ETOPS rating.
Sans Engine, Fueling A-350-9 Under 370 Minutes


What does it matter? Not much at this time, since most to "All" common routes fall within the 330 minute ETOPS certification from the US governance of Airlines. Airbus can now stick another sticker on its body with the XWB , moniker,  ETOPS 370 Euro designation. The 787 won't bother with anymore puffing stickers, as it is concerned with fitting the market better with its 787 program. An extra forty minute single engine certification on the Airbus A350 will not alter its routing in the market. Unless a new, never before routing occurs, and straight line flying is required for its unique distance flying around the globe, during any two points encountered.

However, this becomes a useless John Leahy talking point at the next airshow. Airbus has the XWB going 370 minutes ETOPS on one engine. I couldn't stand the suspense for 370 minutes on a single engine stretch of the Pacific anyways. Its nice to know you can circle the nearest airport an extra 40 minutes in your XWB ride waiting to land if needed.

XWB is a term when comparing bodies in inches for the 787 and feet on single aisle. It becomes extra weight over the life of the airplane. The 777X will not be a good Airbus comparison as it will be a 2XWB over the Airbus configured dimensions. I am also confident the 787 could test for the 370 EASA certification, if it needed to do so. Since it has already done the 330 ETOPS, which defaulted an acceptance within the European governance, it won't need to do so for the 370 ETOPS. It's just an additional plane sticker for airshows, since the FAA doesn't have a 370 ETOPS classification in its certification program.

Monday, October 13, 2014

The Max Attacks The Future As 50 More Are Ordered

The "Max" or the 737, where the MAX gains fifty in an order today as announced with Indonesian Airlines,  "Garuda". This opens up a new classification for ordering that has been around for a long time. A current customer bridge order. Garuda, a long time Boeing operative, has reached near the end of its order book with only a remaining four 737 NG's to deliver. The Boeing sales team is counting the order slack from prior orders to bridge with any new orders, by refreshing its order books with the Max. In Garuda's case, by the time this latets order was signed for, they trimmed four from the backlog and added it to this new Max order. New orders equal 46 Max,  plus four prior orders converted Max, equaling a total of fifty.

Boeing measures prior orders remaining, airline company growth, and fleet renewal factors as it would launch a campaign with an offer where Garuda  should not refuse. Even though an order sometimes takes years in the making, Boeing would need to start further back on Garuda's delivery Que in months, before the order is complete. Garuda came through and established its fleet renewal needs with its expanding fleet needs, ordering 50 Max.  A continuity bridge is established for the single aisle type. These are the little details that are always under consideration when an airline orders, as Boeing stays focused on a customer needs. Its a commonly occurring type of order when linking existing prior orders with a new order as a "Current Customer Bridge Order". This completes a trickle down effect going to the ultimate customer, the passenger.

Passengers have gained an appreciation, expectation and familiarity for an aircraft such as the 737. The airline is positioned, trained and  managed for that type of aircraft with a certain knowledge of what it will produce for its profits. The sales team must assure those customer expectations will expand with an all new 737 MAX where it will exceed those established company bench marks with a significant change. Garuda plans that a profit will occur in greater abundance, where a certain amount of that profit can be dedicated for financing follow-on deliveries from this new order. The win/win result is increased customer appeal, tickets and expanding routes.

Boeing sales has made significant headway with the Max, and is closing in on the NEO from Airbus. Something has happened in the market where the MAX is getting more sales legs and is moving at an awesome rate of sales. Boeing has gained 722 in number, with 737 sales types this year. What has not been added to the order book is in the Billions of US dollars. Ryan Air has not yet booked its 100-737, Nor has Garuda 50 been added to the Boeing 737 book on its web site (soon). Just those two un-booked numbers would bring the single aisle order book for Boeing to 872 for the year. There are several others hanging orders for finalization with Boeing. In all, it is safe to predict 1000+ 737's ordered this year. Even though Airbus has not stopped working in the market place, it too will add more orders before year-end.

However, Boeing continues to eat away Airbus' NEO margin lead over the MAX. There are so many moving parts to a placed order. So many its not practical to list them all on this blog. If a company had a 100 point check list for its own business model, where one column was Boeing and the other was Airbus, Boeing in 2014 is winning that check list battle with more checks gaining a buy summary.

Of course items on a proverbial list would include a matrix with: fuel, seat numbers, maintenance cost, and so forth. Boeing is winning the internals checking by going down the list, including capital outlay at purchase.

The NEO rush  during Airbus announcement year where place holders from dedicated Airbus' customers. The second year since the Airbus announcement is Boeing's first year, actually started about 14 months after the NEO  launch announcement. It was at an obvious order disadvantage. However, Boeing has a striking change in the balance of who ordered what. Lately its been MAX upon Max. Customers have read the MAX white paper and really like what it will do for its own business plan. Even dedicated Neo customers are reading the reports, since they are having to compete with that pesky MAX as it expands its base.

Boeing used to consider itself fortunate to break the 1000 order barrier, in a given year for all its types combined. Now the 737 may reach that number by itself this year. As two and a half months remain with significant un-booked orders to be added.

Congratulation to Garuda, its a note worthy Bridge to the future for both the airline and Boeing. Its a battle for the best value and the 737 MAX  is gaining value over the NEO in this market.

Saturday, October 11, 2014

No Chem Trails Con Trails Just This: Montana Hot Springs





The Lodge:



My Family are my roomies



103 degrees and some friends of mine enjoy the "Tel" guests Private Hot springs

We jut got out of the soaking pool 20 minutes ago from posting this blog.

Rainbow lights at night, Didn't need them, the forest around us is more incentive. Pretty Hot Springs Pool, though.



The wild life just around the corner from us take one for the team.

Thursday, October 9, 2014

Another Zumwalt Note and Why I Love This Ship DDG1000



When I first read this quote, I celebrated with Joy. The Zumwalt will be Captained by none other than a man named James Kirk. Here is the quote for your own imagination and enjoyment.


"Built with a stealth-like design intended to reduce the ship’s radar profile, the Zumwalt’s futuristic appearance seems fitting given that the ship’s commanding officer is Capt. James Kirk.

The ship has advanced technologies in every area – engines, power systems, weapons systems, shipboard electronics and sensors – making it one of the world’s most capable ships. When at sea, Zumwalt will perform a variety of missions including attacking targets on land with gunfire and cruise missiles, hunting and tracking submarines, airspace surveillance and support to special operations forces.
Longer than two football fields, the ship is 80 feet wide and weighs more than 15,000 long tons when fully loaded. Twin gas turbine engines can push the ship through the water at more than 30 knots. Zumwalt is named in honor of Adm. Elmo R. “Bud” Zumwalt Jr., who served as chief of naval operations, the Navy’s most senior uniformed officer, from 1970-1974."
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I would pay to go on a practice cruise on this ship with Captain James Kirk. I do pay by the way with Income taxes, but not from this blog Revenue :(> .
Petty Officer 1st Class Benjamin Platfoot is a fire controlman and leading petty officer aboard the Zumwalt. From Sidney Ohio 
I salute you, with hand on heart.
Petty Officer 1st Class Benjamin Platfoot is a fire controlman and leading petty officer aboard the Zumwalt.


Beyond The Seat Mile Addiction

Airlines today have a penchant for seat/mile profits and efficiency. The end of that goal is putting as many passengers on for a given trip at the lowest operating cost. There is a second layer to this approach, and it’s not about raw density numbers and efficient operations. It’s about what the airline company offers with its equipment. Much like a cruise ship, people don't care about the cheapest ticket by 5% advantage but the travel experience. That is why passengers often rely upon expectations when traveling. They want to go on board knowing they will have an outstanding experience when traveling for a particular airline on a particular aircraft type. Hence the case of the Air China's first 747-8i.

Case in Point:


The above link from Australian Business Traveler inspires the Idea for business travel as well as the vacationer. What an airline does with it cubic feet allotted from the aircraft frame is just as or more important for selling seats than fuel economy. The 787-8i provides space for airlines. As in cruise shipping manufacturing, no one cares if a ship is built in Bath Maine or Spain. It’s how the ship is fitted and the experience gained. The choice is between a Motel 6 for $59.99 per night or Comfort Inn for $99.99 a night. It’s your choice.

What did Air China do to its 747-8i to make your valued choice more productive. It gives you its first 747-8i with many choices from the Business Traveler to the Vacationer. It is a high valued experience with a solid economic footing. If you have not linked with the article above, here are a few pictures and my rational for what I see on the Australian Business Travelers Article, below.



 Photos: Inside Air China's Boeing 747-8 first, business class

Towards the pointy end second deck of the 747-8i are the moguls of industry sitting 1-2-1 across first class. It is a purpose filled space without the fluff.

"Contains first, business, premium economy and economy class across a total of 365 seats."




Business Class is all Business when comes to comfort and room. Below (ABT Photo)


Upstairs is private space for either the Execs or the refined traveler.


Getting there doesn't have to be painful by having a semi-standing posture from an under pitched space. It can actually be a happy experience on an airplane design for travel. Premium economy for a few dollars more than economy is worth the reservation and price. Shown Below (ABT Photo)

Wednesday, October 8, 2014

Doing ETOPS for 10 Days

Extended Trip Out People Socializing (ETOPS) for 240 hours is my next attempt at normalizing with society. I will be in a sketchy mode at best, writing blogs. There are 432 blogs listed on LiftNdrag at your disposal during the next ten days. If I am able I will post either something snarky or informative about aviation. Since I'm going to the back woods and further into the mountains, it depends how much wifi I'll have from Kalispell, MT (Nearest town with a mall). Enjoy all the older stuff and think about bears chasing my family around the wilderness and "Park".

Monday, October 6, 2014

Single Aisle Notes For 2014 Orderbook

The 737 has orders for a net total of 712  while the A-320 Neo has two hundred less at 512. Hold on a minute, what about the A-321? Okay I knew somebody from Airbus  would ask that question in "order" to make a point, so let's add another 146.

Order score (Net) as of September 30, 2014

Boeing                   Airbus
1000                        791

Boeing still leads the single aisle order market with that addition at the end of September with 712 Boeing 737's over the Airbus 658 A-320-321's. Not to rub it in on Airbus too much, let's change the subject to production.

The production score is as Follows on September 30, 2014:

Boeing            Airbus
528                     443

Boeing has an over-all production lead for the year by 85 units. Further analysis is taken. Boeing has produced 80 more 787's than the Airbus' 0 A350's to be fair during this period.  It has produced more wide-bodies cash cows than Airbus including the line-up of 777's and a couple of 747's just because they did.

Where did I stumble on these facts?:


Boeing is not sitting still any longer in the midst of doing what it mentioned several years back. "We need  increased production for our customers sake." That they have done it, and addressed it as they go forward in the next 6 years with 52 a month 737s. The way they are now outselling the A320 NEO they will need that increased production in Renton, WA. Suppliers, its time to ramp up to 52 parts a month for both NG's and Max.

Insuring An On Time 777X Is Just As Critical As Making It

Boeing is readying its Everett plant and wide spread facilities for one mission. Get it right the first time on time. In Everett, its all hands on deck for the new 777X  wing assembly center. In St. Louis, Spirit is reading its part as the larger 777X assembly part manufacturer. This time around there will not be 787 like dithering in the airplane preparation. This "Moon Shot" is not a guesstimation 787-8 fly by long night after long night works. Its everything Boeing has done, and can be done on time and in place for the 777X. It's a drag race to the finish against the un-launched A350-1000, yet to built or tested. Folding wings is the least of Boeing's headaches on the table. They have been doing that since World War II. The main thing is getting facilities tooled and ready for the the Biggest Show on Earth, using some of PT Barnum's tactics to pull orders into the big tent.

Boeing is "sinking", literally sinking its assets into Everett turf. The "Plan" is to make something out of whole cloth fly like the best aircraft ever flown in the world, using the rabbits from Boeing's hat as the show stoppers. This is not just a "Fly-by-wire" act or a new LIon in the center ring. It is the big show we aspire to be in. The all plastic thing went with the mini skirt, however there are many fans of the mini skirted 787. This time it's, all about the contours in the wings, the tail and the airplane face, where Boeing will exploit its competitors. Then, on the runway, the wings will fold before the Jetway audience. Ohhh, and gasps as it makes its appearance are the sounds, when the 777X turns and hooks up with the jet way.

The customers remark, "those wings are plastic, they are nicer looking than the originals, where they just sagged a bit hanging on those large cans"!

The big show is on, as this show girl is wooing the airline audience.

Boeing will begin by regaining its reputation by starting on time. That is the big news, its sinking a big amount of resources into making the deadline. They already know how to make it fly farther, faster and cheaper with fuel. So pull all the lessons learned to the fore front and give it to the 777X. "People, we don't have to do it all over again. We just have to match the right technology to the right application." The 777X is going revolutionize the best of Boeing, by taking the 787 DNA and infuse it into the 777X. In return the 777X will give back to the 787 family of aircraft as it further takes on laminar flow and engine evolution.

Order Book Shenanigans

Its more confusing than square dancing in Virginia, USA. The Boeing order book took some hits and had some misses. Remember the main thing, is to keep the main thing, the main thing. I always wanted to call that at a square dance before we doce-do and away we go! Lesson from the Boeing order page for those with tri-focals and a magnifying glass in hand. "Here we go", Peter Pan Style.

1. 737's don't tell any stories about who, what, when, and where's just three to "Deep Pockets McGee".
2. 747, Played the song "Another one Bit The Dust" and "another one" Why, we don't really know why, but sometimes they just "Bite the Dust".



3. Hey, I thought the 767 bit the dust last year, I forgot FedEx. Oh well it fits them and that's all it matters for four more.

4.  Not FedEx's four but two big Gecas 777 to go. Order up!
5. 787 @ 15 Whaaaat! Unnamed, unidentified and unknown ordered?
6. Air Berlin has no chops at this time, Cancelled 15 787, Whaaaat! Book em Dano
7. Conspiracy theories are flooding the internet at this time on the 0 net change on the 787 book.
8. Almost Forgot, 20 each of the 737 were dropped as third quarters financials hit some fired execs.
9. 1000 ways to "Leave Your Lover", but don't hop on the Bus, Gus.


Orders through September 30, 2014
737747767777787Total
2014 Net Orders712-14261241000
Air Algerie1010
Air Canada6161
Alaska Airlines66
ALC21627
All Nippon Airways261440
Avolon5611
Belavia33
BOC Aviation80282
Business Jet / VIP Customer(s)5117
Cargolux Airlines11
CIT Leasing Corporation1010
COPA Airlines22
Eastern Air Lines1010
Emirates150150
Ethiopian Airlines2020
FedEx44
GECAS527
Intrepid Aviation66
Jackson Square Aviation33
Japan TransOcean Air66
MG Aviation Limited22
Nok Air1515
Okay Airways Company Limited1010
Qatar Airways5050
Ryanair55
SunExpress Airlines4040
Turkish Airlines1515
Turkmenistan Airlines33
Unidentified Customer(s)4511815484
United States Navy1616
2014 Gross Orders79214261481106
Changes-80-2-24-106
2014 Net Orders712-14261241000
737747767777787Total
Highlighted text in the chart above indicates updates for the current week.
Changes since last update:  24 new orders (Business Jet / VIP Customer(s) three 737s, FedEx four 767s, GECAS two 777s, and Unidentified Customer(s) 15 787s).  In the changes category reduced 737 net orders by 20, 747 net orders by two and 787 net orders by 15.