Does Airbus Have Nerves Of CFRP

Judging by the mood of Airbus, after today's striking announcement that Emirates will not need the service of 70 A350's, it has thrown many unanswered questions to the fore-front. Many an executive may eye the window from ten stories up at a Toulouse office. Its not that Airbus just erased 16 Billion off the books in one fell swoop, but it highlights the exigency of the A330 NEO program over the dead or dying A350-800. Now Airbus is wondering if it has the nerve of metal or laminated plastic.  The choices are few with the back drop of advanced Boeing Technology on both the 787 and 777X coming forth in numbers.

Two Questions are on the table with a third thought floating the room.

Why doesn't the A350-800 take off where customers have abandon this ship or not boarded on it in the first place?

How Come An A330 NEO isn't a good stop gap airplane that will buy time for Airbus until they get it right?

"Thought"
That technological mountain that Boeing built is awfully tall, and look at those beautiful Boeing wings and associated technology.

Airbus has stayed the course as long as they can, by dressing its pigs in advance technology trimmings for its family aircraft. It has has put on plastic panels, made an approachable attempt against Boeing windows. Even provided a Boeing like light show on the interior. But it just just doesn't have that "It Factor", the 787 has, and the Boeing is showing up everyday with its 150 or so flying examples. Airbus didn't even bother with core technology like Boeing did, and even bought barrels of hydraulic fluid for the entire A350 family. How come people didn't like the A350-800?  A perplexing question, the A330 NEO team asked. Now they are thinking of a do-over for its customers with the A330 NEO proposition. (Simile alert) Its like going to the grand ball in a 1990's suit when every body is wearing the newest 787 Tux at the ball (flowers not included).

Airbus has indeed had an Epic week. It was found out, by Emirates no less, who is now dating Boeing with wide body orders and issued an  Airbus break-up with them on XWB types. The ripple effect will be felt by other airline suitors who now question its own portfolios with Airbus. If Boeing keeps cranking out 10-12 a month 787's, and they will, along with pushing the 777X sooner rather than later. Maybe the A350 isn't all that, as Airbus has dressed its pig to the nines while wearing old school styles in a modern setting.

An Epic week indeed. Nothing better than a slug of new Airbus orders for John Leahy as mentioned in his reaction. "We now have production slots open on the A350 assembly and we can serve customers faster." The problem now is its order book when there is a lull aviation orders this month as Airlines are examining and consolidating purchase strategy. Emirates is not the only company doing this type of evaluations. All Aviation companies continuously do this analysis 24/7. Emirates is the first to break in dramatic fashion in 2014. Back in the heady days of the initial 787 order book, Boeing had customers retract orders, as they went back and analyzed financial strength supporting a 787 order. Qantas had to retract on its 787 order and a few other airlines had to regroup, thus stacking up a number of cancellations for Boeing for its 787. Since then, that has not been a problem for Boeing. It has kept growing its order book for the 787. When Leahy stated Boeing had more cancellations than the 70 he just experienced with Airbus, he was correct in-a-way. Boeing has achieved over 1050 787's orders since the beginning of the 787 program and order book adjustments occured when financial minds said, "we need to pull back and reconsider what a big 787 order will do to our finances in a down market" during 2008-2010 period. Airbus is about 30 % behind Boeing with A350 orders comparing Boeing's 787 order book. Looking at the financial quality of airlines who cancelled for either Airbus or Boeing is important. Emirates prints money and Qantas has its cup out asking for money most months. Leahy fails to footnote publically the situation properly, as he usually does when making bold statements. The airlines know and they smile when it happens. Its part of Leahy's salesmanship. The Emirate deal dismissal is a crusher for Airbus! A Qantas/Boeing cancellation was felt, but Boeing recovered with many more 787 orders from others, even in a recession.

This Emirates cancellation will have a large ripple effect on the world of aviation. It will effect decisions Airbus is about to make towards its A330 NEO idea. Old technology will be harder for Airbus to sell its customers, as the A350 lost to the 777X project and the 787 tag alongs. You could say Airbus has finally been exposed. Others will certainly reexamine that exposure from its own order book. You are not the biggest passenger airline company in the world, because of carelessness, Emirates knows this and others have taken note, Boeing is better at these WB aircraft models it has and Boeing doesn't build a super giant airplane, so be it it for the Airbus' A380.

The late time tells me Airbus won't go for a CRFP hail Mary Pass in a A350-800 renovation, but will go all in for full metal jacket in a losing war with the A330 NEO.

The Airbus Stopped At Emirates and Boeing Gets ON

Orders from Boeing website for Emirates since 2010.

Orders for January 2010 through May 2014
Customer Name	Country	Region	Model	Engine	Order Date	Total
Emirates	United Arab Emirates	Middle East	777-300ER	GE	30-Apr-2010	18
Emirates	United Arab Emirates	Middle East	777-300ER	GE	16-Jul-2010	12
Emirates	United Arab Emirates	Middle East	777-300ER	GE	16-Nov-2011	50
Total						80
Customer Name	Country	Region	Model	Engine	Order Date	Total

The current order book does not reveal potential  777X9 commitments as reported below by Guy Norris, @Aviation Week, during last years air show at Dubai.

Emirates and Clark were probably thinking when they committed to the 777X, that they would drop the A350 line during that time. They stopped short of the elimination then, and waited for the soft part of aviation's yearly news cycle before having any mid-year financial impact for the industry. It appears to be a calculated information announcement, timed for not offending Airbus sensibility towards Emirates. It also heightens the anticipation of turning its Boeing commitments towards the 777 program forward a notch with a placed order, from last falls Dubai Airshow MOU's with Boeing.  There is always a chance Emirates will tweak its commitments already established, either upwards or downwards considering many factors contained in Emirates' future plans. However it appears, United Arab Emirates is all-in for both the A380 and the 777X programs as exampled by Boeing's chart above in the last four years of booking Emirates 777-300ER orders, which tally eighty.

Aviation Week: Guy Norris: Date-Line November 17, 2013

Back ground information:

"Boeing officially launched the 777X derivative at the Dubai air show on the back of259 orders from four airlines worth almost $100 billion, making it the largest single commercial launch by value in the history of the industry.

Dubai-based Emirates Airlines grabbed the lion’s share of the contracts with firm orders for 150 777X, plus purchase rights on a further 50, while neighboring Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways shared the limelight by ordering an additional 50 and 25 respectively. Together with Lufthansa’s earlier order for 34 777-9X, Boeing says the combined value of the 777X agreements is more than $95 billion. The Emirates order is made up of 115 of the larger capacity -9X versions and 35 -8X, while Etihad will take 17 777-9X versions and eight -8Xs. Etihad’s order also includes options and purchase rights for 12 additional 777X.

Beyond the 777X, Boeing’s 787 orderbook also received a significant boost with Etihad ordering 30 787-10s. Together with the carrier’s previous order for 41 787-9s, the -10 purchase means Etihad will become the largest operator of the 787 with a total of 71 787s on order. The deal includes options and purchase rights for an additional 12 787-10s and marks the 1,000th order for the 787 family since All Nippon Airways launched the program in April 2004. The Etihad selection also means the 787 has reached the 1,000 firm order milestone in just over nine years, faster than any other twin-aisle aircraft. Etihad’s order also includes one additional 777 freighter plus two options.

The 777-9X will be configured to carry more than 400 passengers, and will have a range of more than 8,200 naut. mi. The 777-8X, which with capacity for 350 passengers is sized close to the current 777-300ER, will have a range of more than 9,300 naut. mi. The aircraft will be powered by General Electric’s GE9X which will be rated at around 105,000 lb. thrust, confirms David Joyce, the engine maker’s president and CEO.

“The -9X will have a 16% to 17% delta in fuel burn (compared to the current 777-300ER), and is an aircraft that is redesigned inside and has a new wing,” says Emirates Airlines president Tim Clark. “It is all composite and has great lift over drag. The -8X is about the same size as the 777-300ER but will be able to fly 17 hours to 18 hours non-stop and with the same fuel efficiency as the -9X. It’s a step change in aircraft design and a step change in propulsion but we have to wait seven or eight years for this to come.”

Design of the 777X is under way and Boeing confirms suppliers will be named “in the coming months.” Production will begin in 2017, with first delivery of the 777-9X targeted for 2020, with initial deliveries of the -8X following around 18 months later.

Almost eclipsed by the twin-aisle order avalanche was the news that flydubai has ordered 100 737 MAX, all of them -8s, as well as 11 737-800s. The deal is valued at $11.4 billion at list prices, including purchase rights. It is the largest ever Boeing single-aisle airplane purchase in the Middle East, says the manufacturer. First flight is scheduled in 2016 with deliveries starting in 2017. Flydubai currently operates the 737-800 and so far has taken 33 of the 50 aircraft it ordered in 2008."

Breaking Airbus News (Updated from Gulf News)

Emirates cancels a total of 70 A350's, 50 Airbus A350-900, and 20 A350-1000, knocking the Airbus order book for the A350 further back of Boeing's 787 Program.     Airbus book drops down to 742 A350 orders after subtracting 70 from the books. Tim Clark announces the change as a fleet adjustment. Currently Emirates has the 787 family of Aircraft and Boeing's 777-9X on the books. Clark has not been favorable towards the A350-1000. This is a significant blow for Airbus to absorb, as Emirates has been a key customer for the Airbus A380 with Emirates.  In the next five months Airbus hopes to deliver its first customer an A350-900. More information emerging on the cancelation tomorrow.

The Western Australian Link                                                                      


John Leahy Gives "The Baghad Bob Report: Gulf News  Reference Link

Dubai: Emirates said on Wednesday it has cancelled its entire order for Airbus A350 XWBs (extra wide bodies) that it signed with the European plane maker back in 2007, then valued at around $16 billion (Dh58.48 billion) in list prices.

Without divulging exact reasons for the move, an Emirates spokesperson said in a statement that the contract which the airline signed in 2007 for 70 A350 aircraft has “lapsed”. “We are reviewing our fleet requirements,” the spokesperson added.

Confirming the same, Airbus, which suffered its biggest-ever order cancellation, said in a statement that Emirates’ decision “follows ongoing discussions with the airline in light of their fleet requirement review, as demonstrated by their order of 50 additional A380s at the last Dubai Airshow and their continuous interest in the programme”.

The order of 50 A350-900s and 20 A350-1000s was originally placed by Emirates in 2007 with first delivery slots scheduled from 2019.

A disappointed Airbus sales chief, John Leahy, reportedly told reporters in Toulouse, France, that it’s “not good news commercially but not bad news financially”, adding Boeing has had more cancellations for its 787 Dreamliner.

Airbus stated that it was confident of filling the spare production slots and saw no financial impact from the order cancellation. It added that half-a-year before entry into service, the A350 XWB order book stands at 742 firm orders.

The first A350 is scheduled for delivery to Qatar Airways in the fourth quarter of this year.

Analysts, meanwhile, see Emirates’ move as one prompted by Boeing’s 777x planes.

Terming Emirates’ decision as “strange”, Addison Schonland, Partner at US-based AirInsight, told Gulf News in a statement that a reduction in the order would seem plausible in light of the [Boeing] 777x. “But a total cancellation seems like an overkill.” Bear in mind the A350 programme is on time with an excellently executed flight test programme, he said. “What could possibly be ‘wrong’ with the A350 now? Can the 777x — which is ‘not’ even in flight test — offer so much more?”

Emirates in November last year placed a $76 billion order with Boeing for 150 of its new 777X planes at the Dubai Airshow.

Another analyst, Andrew Charlton of Geneva-based Aviation Advocacy, is of the view that by moving away from its A350 order Emirates is saying that there is no great need for them, “or perhaps that the need for A380s is greater”.

He added that the cancellation has two implications, the first being Emirates’ long-haul hub model can be sustained and maintained by its fleet of Boeing 777s. “And secondly, the A380s are the way of the future,” Charlton pointed out.

The cancellation comes shortly after Emirates President, Tim Clark, recently said that if Airbus could deliver by 2019-2020 he would be interested in up to a 100 new A380neos (new engine options) over the 10 years to meet fleet replacement and expansion needs.

Rolls-Royce, the sole engine maker for the A350, will also suffer a blow owing to Emirates’ move as it would reportedly end up losing $4.4 billion.

Airbus’ shares were reportedly down 3.3 per cent to 52.08 euros in afternoon trading in Paris.

       

The A330 Gamesmen$hip And Game Board Tatics

Airbus is playing Boeing just like Boeing has played Airbus. Wait for the other to make its move then make the counter move on the opponent. A very good article outlining this tactic:

Airbus A330 Upgrade May Pressure Jet Prices 

Reference: Air Wise June 10,2014
"Critics say Airbus has flip-flopped over strategy after initially rejecting an A330 redesign in favor of its new A350.

But some in the industry say Boeing also erred by over-engineering the 787, leaving the door open to more sales of a wide-body aircraft suited to shorter trips such as fast-growing routes within Asia.

Airbus has already begun promoting the "A330neo" as the most affordable wide-body jet catering to this new regional niche.

Comparing the A330neo to the Boeing 787-9, the most popular version of the Dreamliner, Airbus sales chief John Leahy said it would have the same "cash operating costs" and significantly lower capital costs, making it "an unbeatable plane in that category".

Boeing disputes these claims as well as Airbus's forecasts of more than 1,000 potential sales for the A330neo. But that has not prevented its sales chief stepping up the market battle."

The point was made through Ryan Air, that you can buy a boat load of 737 NG's like its recent #176, 737's on one order, and fly it competitively against the NEO or Max. Because operational margins are close enough comparing the Max and NEO against the NG, where it can risk buying a lower cost airplane and leverage acquisition savings through its operations making extra cash available for buying additional fuel and service of its higher overhead operation. The lower capitalization also achieves lower interests amount, and effective depreciation benefits for the tax calculation of the company. The bottom line improves when Ryan Air can buy the cheaper older design, and beat the bottom line of its competitor's "bottom line", during head to head operations of competing airlines that have ordered the A320 NEO. 

That is what Airbus is saying that it can do with an A330 Neo against the 787 capitalization margins.  Airbus claims they will  sell you an A330 NEO with lower purchase price, lower interest payments on acquisitions, that will supersede the 787 higher purchase cost and better fuel performance beating the 787. The A330 NEO would compete on the bottom line in head to head profitability with airlines that have the 787. The A330 doesn't have to use less fuel to beat the 787 because cash savings just mentioned will catch-up the A-330 NEO on its operational cash flows against the higher purchase price 787. Thus, affording more fuel for years to come. That is the argument in short hand. They can buy an tremendous amount of fuel from purchase savings and lower interest cost as part of the head to head Airbus analysis.

This short sighted Airbus scheme fails on its assumptions, where all things Boeing will be a constant factor and never adjust. As the article link suggests, Boeing has several options available to knock the Airbus scheme off the table. The fuel price is the wild card. If fuel price raises significantly in an operational year, then Boeing would have orders tip to its favor.

"Comparing the A330neo to the Boeing 787-9, the most popular version of the Dreamliner, Airbus sales chief John Leahy said it would have the same "cash operating costs" and significantly lower capital costs, making it "an unbeatable plane in that category".

Boeing disputes these claims as well as Airbus's forecasts of more than 1,000 potential sales for the A330neo. But that has not prevented its sales chief stepping up the market battle.

"Clearly our competitor is pursuing this product and thinks it is a great way to compete against the 787-8 and 787-9, which is an interesting change in their strategy because we thought they were building the A350-800 and A350-900 to compete against those airplanes," said Boeing senior vice president John Wojick.

"Airbus is saying 'my airplane isn’t as efficient as Boeing's, so maybe Boeing won't react'. Well, we are going to react," he told Reuters in Doha. Boeing declined to elaborate.

Analysts say Boeing has three main options: do nothing, fine-tune the 787's design or retaliate with lower prices".

• Assigning a lower thrust engines on a 787-8 for regional airport hoping as China is leaning towards. 
• Add special performance tweaking on a 787-8 regional for under 5,000 mile routes.
• Passenger configuration standards on a regional market maximizing efficiency.
• Weight reductions from eliminating long range system currently installed on all 787.
• Boeing has the ability to sell a 787-8R (Regional) configuration that would kill the A330 NEO.    

Boeing blinked and didn't build the regional 787-3. The A330 NEO concept is trying to grab China's attention and sell 1000 units in the next ten years over the 787-8, 787-9

and 787-10 models. China could purchase a block of A330 NEO's as a place holder for its airplane growth until later when the 787 order book shrinks and production cost improves making the Boeing sales team aggressive at that time, out selling the A330 bargain beater. 

Whether the A330 Neo is launched, is the roll of the dice at this time. The A350-800 is a lost leader. The A350-900 can't hold up to all competing models. The A350-1000 is just a dream not a liner, Since Boeing has four brand new models each filling slots that brackets the Airbus line into a take down. 

Boeing's Next Big Jumbo Will Come From The Design Board

Jumbo, as defined by aviation gurus has four engines and two decks. It can carry both passengers and freight within its design constraints. A Jumbo must fit in all Airports of significant importance without having to resort to local bond issues or nationalized loans. The next Jumbo could be militarized for moving troops, equipment and cargo plus converting to medic vac and refugee missions. This Jumbo has to look the part and be admired for its design motifs.

The point is a Jumbo has to be a multi role platform or its a no go. Boeing could sell 250 or more passenger configured large Jumbos like Airbus, who has recently hit bottom in the new sales arena, or go Army Swiss Knife Ninja on a transformable design motif from the factory floor. A frame starts and then plug and play takes over for Luxury passenger, PT Barnum Freight, or GI Joe mission accomplished modes. The problem is getting the military to sign on to a concept when no money or plans are in the works. So Boeing would have to stick to what it controls, Freight and Passenger modes. They need at least another 250 orders from the super freighter customers with an equal capacity of the 747. The problem with the 747 today is the efficiency factor for both customer service and freight service. A 747-8i competes with highly efficient long haul passenger (the A380 doesn't inspire a freight role). The 747-8F is suited well for freight but has four engines. So goes the conundrum.

Problem for Boeing: How do we build an efficient passenger, right sized, Jumbo that can be sold to both passenger service and freight service, extending the order book beyond five hundred Jumbos? That is the current 747-8 conundrum. They did the 747-8 on the cheap with an existing 747 frame. Can they do it from scratch with an all new blending of  Jumbo designs and make money? Here enters the 777X10 frame. slightly widened and taller with a straight line body (no hump) and everything  in Boeing's playbook thrown at it. They don't need to be the biggest, they need to be the best for its customers. A stream-ling form fitting 777-10x could fit code E slots. The work on this convertible behemoth has started in the form of the 777-9X CAD center.

Let's put this jumbo together in a menagerie of brain storming talking points. Here goes:

From Ground-up ideas' let the brainstorming begin:

• Strengthened under carriage.
• Configurable landing "gear trucks" for the mission specific loads
• Plastic interface with aluminum strengthen structures
• Commercial Version tops off at 450 seats.
• Cargo Version has plug and play design attributes for cargo attachments.
• Plastic Boeing Wings (Folding Option)
• A two engine base variant for all airplane applications

Variable deck levels within Design parameters where a framed main floor variant can drop two feet for passengers or cargo configurations, allowing room for a windowless special operations area above the normal passenger area. The floor drop allows for a 6 '6" tall  area above in the attic for rest, work stations, and special operations command center for military versions. Passenger versions would raise the floor back up two feet for a normal one level seating configuration. The Jumbo, in order to survive in sales,  must have multi tasking builds with its design features for large capacity and long range capability.

As a passenger craft, it would incorporate everything beautiful found in today's most sophisticated airline interior. The freight area and downstairs on a passenger model would complement the airline customers missions for both luggage and freight.

On the freighter version, the full range of its interior height and width is available. The aft end of the aircraft could have swinging doors opening up unloading the full length of the cargo. No hump would exist like the 747. A continuous body shape in a straight line would not have that distinctive hump. However, it would have a bigger diameter barrel than the 777-X9 and would be slightly longer depending on the aircraft application. The two GE engines would be tested to do everything that the current four 747 engines do. Only more efficiently. Fuel range could be extended on this craft by what comes out of the tricks bag . Plastic Boeing Wings would lock onto an aluminum wing box. This all purpose aircraft is Boeing's Opus from all things Boeing foot locker. Call it the 797 or  the CPM short for Cargo, Passenger and Military operations A beautiful time for passengers. A load full, for all freight and military solutions in all operations.

This is how brain storming can work. The facilitator, who has the felt tip Maker and writes down everybody chirping in all at once. Trying to beat their co-worker for attention, and getting  their ideas on the easel first. Some of these types of arguments are being made in windowless conference rooms, near a Boeing facility near you. Next year it will be a board room presentation and year following a launch party for a Mini Jumbo project.

Revenge is Best Served With An 787

In Texas Hold'em the turn card was flipped making the hand a full suite of Boeing aircraft. The turn card was the 787, because Boeing always knew they needed a 777X to complete the hand. They have that card sitting quietly as the hole card in the design bin. Now the hard get, was the 787 card which is crafted from a hard boot strap pull lifting Boeing off the ground. It has been goobering around with its passengers for almost three years with "teething woes", and a FAA Pacifier hanging off its lips every time it tries to alleviate those pesky gumming pains. Now the 787 has teeth in its third year. One hundred and fifty teeth are now flying.

The 777-9X is going to be played in suite and the Max cards as well. These are something Airbus can't match as in the game of Hearts, as Boeing  "Shoots The Moon". Smart hearts players players shoot the moon when they have an unstoppable hand after the first few cards are played. The cards are beginning to fall after its-up-from- the-boot strap 787 play. I know them as the first couple cards out of the hand whether its in Texas Hold'em or Hearts. The 787 made 'em (Airbus) think, blink and dink. The Airbus hand is in trouble.

Here's what shooting the moon by Boeing looks like from the Airbus perspective.

"Seeking Alpha" Points out what Its like to "Fly me To The Moon" when it comes to Boeing.

"Last week, Airbus reported that as of May 2014 (the first 5 months of the year), they took in net orders for 203 new aircrafts, while Boeing received nearly double the amount of orders with 394 new aircraft request. Nearly all of the orders Airbus received were for the single-aisle, narrow-body jets (namely the A320 and the A321 family, as in the diagram from Airbus’ site pictured below) which have a far lower profit-margin than the jumbo jets. Airbus noted 196 deliveries for single-aisle planes, while Boeing only 193. For both companies, single-aisle jets are the cheapest to produce and sell. To make matters worse, Airbus also received about 306 order cancellations to date – that means that nearly one in three orders for Airbus aircraft gets cancelled. So far, Boeing has managed to have just 52 order cancellations out of the 448 orders that they received in 2014"

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Boeing is now starting to shoot the moon in the game of Hearts, as Airbus tried to take Boeing's high card heart, the 787, using a muffed-up efforted A350. You know that A350-8 that was sloughed and dumped. The do-over A330 NEO is trumped. The A320 family NEO ate up by several Boeing cards then it lay downs against the Max, but can no longer sustain itself in the game. Boeing started playing trump with the Max cards keeping power cards in reserve. The high Aces of Boeing is a pair of 777-X8 and 777-9X's. Where by 2020 Airbus will reap in its losses as pointed out in the seeking Alpha Observations.

Airbus had 306 cancellations since January 2014! Boeing only had 52. Call those 52 cancellations, a typical slough-off in any year. However, the 306 number of cancellation is just brutal for Airbus with only keeping 203 orders at the party. The crowd just vacated the party when the lemonade came out as the main treat during Airbus' order year.  They will gain more orders before the end of the year, but this cold shower of cancellations as reported, made its sales campaign go limp just at the wrong time.

Boeing had 448 gross orders during this same period. Airbus is losing the game at this time. The big why, is asked at closed board meetings. The newly appointed guy to speak-up, at the meeting, announces he wants to spend more time with his family before explaining why this is so. "Uh, hmmm", The A380 has hit order book bottom like the 747, The A350 clone war is an "Okay Airplane" against the 787. The 787 is experiencing good luck with its extremely advance design from nose to tail. After all the have the 787 in the air flying today. People really seem to like it as do its airline customers. Now for the Neo, I think you are really going to like this part of the presentation. The Neo and A320  orders lead the way for this years order book. Its a really big winner. We have sold a net of 203 single aisles so far. That's 5 months of production during the first 5 months of orders. We are keeping in the game with NEO's"

"I see a hand at the head of the Table, yes sir, "

"What has Boeing done the first five months?

"Ahhh yes Sir, next question, time is tight, for my answers."

Further more I want you to focus on screen slide exhibit 1D. Entitled Profit Margins By Model Type.

Questions?, "yes you at the head of the table, go ahead with you Questions."

Table Chief, "What about our big profit items such as the A380 that hasn't hit break-even yet, and the A330 our standard bearer, why aren't they listed on this chart for the month?"

Presenter replies, "Yes Sir, may I draw your attention to the 2013 chart on this matter, and we don't have the number available yet at this time of year for big ticket items. We will update those profit centers at the end of the year. Did I mention I need to spend more time with my family, as this job is hurting my family life. I really love this job. What are true profit centers anyways? I will get back to you, as  numbers are my one priority. Did you hear the one about the 787 that flew over nine thousand miles with a full plane of people and its booked motel for the passengers after landing was over-book?"  See, Boeing has problems too!

The murmur in the room is a sustained, "Whaaaat"?

Next boardroom question is offered, as panic starts to set in at the meeting.

"Can we make pigs fly?"

Followed by "The 60 Second Manger guy, sitting in the corner muttering  comments;

"Boeing took on 394 orders double what we did since the first of the year. Boeing production is beating us at our best game,  and is getting its units into the hands of customers. It seems to be working for them,  Ideas, ?.... Meeting adjourned.!"

Airbus Press Statement that Afternoon by by Airbus PR press team.

Board meeting  press release:

Airbus has announced that its on track in the A350 development, The World's most best greatest, widest 350 XWB ever built. It will be introduced late this fall at the earliest before Christmas. Deliveries will begin in earnest when testing is complete. The A320 NEO is still far ahead of its counter-part, Boeing, as the single aisle orders continuous to expand the order book ahead of the MAX, even though the MAX is out preforming the NEO in the market over the last two years  a late concept trying to compete with the Airbus option. You can read the orders and deliveries updates on the Airbus website where we have hired a team of accountants that can interpret those gross numbers into real  and actual number instead of just using 12,000 units built to date which makes no understandable or useful analysis during the current year.

Boeing Wings Reduce Drag At The Airport

Boeing had a problem, but not anymore. Its 747-8I, with its large wing span covered more acreage than airports could not keep manufacturing. If another colossal span comes to the flight line, then they may not have enough space. The A380 creates shadows as big as downtown sky scrapers. Causing more real estate that airports cannot spare easily for the price of parking its Super Jumbo in the Jetway areas. The 777 has been around for almost 20 years and most major airports have spent millions building terminals and Jet-ways just for the 777. Then Boeing comes along and proposes the 777X line that would extend the wing further out so it may achieve extreme fuel savings and improved lift. Did Boeing talk to airports around the world if this would be alright? No it didn't. It would be a major problem fitting the 777X into 747 and A380 space as the orders for the 777X aircraft multiply.

Having established a problem without further airport consideration, Boeing realized if we are to get this thing off the ground it won't be coming from A super Jumbo Parking space, but it will come from already established 1st generation 777 slots. So now Boeing has achieved recognition for its airport customers, in a big way. It is going to fold the wing up on the tips when parked, and down when gaining superior lift and less drag from that wing when extended in flight.

Boeing Details 777X Wing-Tip Control Options

Guy Norris 

May 12, 2014

"The design team also is defining how crews will control the wing-fold mechanism that will raise the outer 11 ft. of each wing tip to allow the 777X to park in existing 777 gates. The device, which will reduce overall wing span from 233 ft., 5 in. extended to 212 ft., 9 in. folded, has been scrutinized since early 2013, “when we realized it was new and novel,” says Carriker. Boeing first developed an optional wing-fold concept for the baseline 777-200 in the 1990s, but it was never adopted. The 777X fold system, which is now part of the baseline design, is simpler to actuate and lighter, according to the company. It is “designed to not fail in flight and never come off, similar to a flap,” Carriker adds."

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After millions of flight hours and from taking off or landing from aircraft carriers, a folding wing plane will fit nicely in at established airports that already have ports for the 777-300er and 777-200. The 777x extended wings will fold and chop off 22 feet of parking space needed from its two outer wing tip flight configuration, similar to actuated wing flaps mechanisms on the horizontal main wing. The wing tips will lock in place when down and remain unmovable during flight. Once its in a taxi mode. after leaving the main landing runway, it will simply unlock wing tips, raise them vertically, and then taxi over to its final destination at the airport. Since the wings fold up in a few seconds, it will hardly go unnoticed. Chief engineer and test pilot Mike Carriker, goes on and tells how simple the process is, and how dependable folding wings have been during the last Seventy plus years, since WWII. It is not a complex issue, but has become needed while airplanes have grown so much since 1969 from the 747 until now.

(Updated) From Aviation Week Link

The span is also growing by 2 ft. to 235.5 ft., with the additional length being added outboard of the folding wingtip that is being developed to enable the 777X to maintain the same 213-ft. Code E span of the 777-300ER at taxiways and gates. The added foot means each folding tip section will be 12 ft. in length, adding 24 ft. to the overall span when fully extended. The decision to grow the span follows results from wind-tunnel tests at Boeing’s transonic wind-tunnel facility in Seattle and low-speed tests at the Qinetiq-owned 16.4 X 13.7-ft. low-speed wind tunnel in Farnborough, U.K.


Advantages:

• Boeing has a proprietary plastic wing design will heavily improve Lift and Drag 
• Light weight plastic wings will reduce 777X weight over the 777 line of aircraft
• Airports are excitedly anticipating increased passenger flow through this program.
• Airport will not need to change anything unlike landing the A380 which requires rebuilding terminals.

The over-all impact of the Boeing plastic wing on the 777X will be compliment by advanced engine performance. The goal of Boeing is to walk into a 787 cabin and fly it like the 777X version. Both will have similar, if not identical feel, only in a bigger model for the 777X. Not all Boeing technological tweaks are revealed at this time. Boeing has a detailed plan in each area of this aircraft. I would assume (fingers crossed) that all flight surfaces forward and aft are CRFP surfaces. Additionally, since Boeing is currently developing laminar flow surfaces on its bigger 787-9 and 787-10.  I would expect Boeing to go all in regarding the 777X9 and 777X8.

Whatever is in Boeing's flight bag of tricks, is on its shelves, they will come out and play with the 777X program. The 777-300ER in the base model line, and the 787-9 is that latest mid-sized plastic model. Lessons from the 777-330ER will make improvements on the metal side of the 777X. And lessons learned in plastic making from the 787 will be improved upon in the 777X plastic wings, where it will be manufactured on site in Everett, WA.

Since these are just a few possibilities I would expect many more behind closed doors surprises and a few more discoveries under its skin as it is assembled the first time. All trimming weight and increasing designed efficiencies are not yet exposed, will make this a truly remarkable airplane for the next 30 years.

Box Score-Airplane Cards Are Next--Bubble Gum Free

Do we ascribe to percentages, hits, strike outs and Home Runs? I did during my Little league baseball career, as I amassed  thousands of base Ball cards, including Micky Mantle and Roger Marris.

My favorite Dodger pitchers Sandy Colfax and Don Drisdale. Those were the days of my clouded youth of playing Little League and collecting Baseball cards after a game. I was corrupted with a fascination of Baseball and only did I sell my entire collection in San Diego at the Mission Valley San Diego stadium swap meet when I was 30 in 1982.

Now I am interested in starting an airplane card collection not unlike my Little League Base Ball card collection. In keeping with the times it will be constructed online within this blog as a monthly card issue with both Airbus and Boeing at bat for the World Aviation Series. Introductory Card research is a must read below! Let's put the stats on the first team cards issued.

Card Face 737 NG

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Card Back
Boeing Championship Series Airplane Card May 2014
May Batting avg                Order Count Deliveries   Net Back Log Change
737                                                 99               39                60
777                                                   0                8                - 8
787                                                   0                7                 -7
Total Changes                              99              54                45
TTL Back Log
Year To Date                              394            271              123         5,199

Customers 69

Trophy "The World Largest Airline 2013.

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Card Face A320

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Card Back Statistics:
Airbus Championship Series Card May 2014
May BATTING AVG     Order Count Deliveries   Net Back Log Change
A320                                       70             45                  25
A330                                         0               4                  -4
A380                                         0               6                  -6
Total Changes                       70             55                 15
                                                                                              TTL Backlog  
Year To Date                       203            248                -45 5,514

Customers: 64

Ranking; 2nd place; no trophy awarded, but silky and handsome Red Ribbon

Takes Aways: Boeing is winning in a run away for 2014.

• Boeing has significant gain in orders over Airbus score 394 to 203 Boeing wins by 191
• Boeing Wins in Delivery YTD 271-248 by a 23 unit margin.
• Boeing Increases and wins net orders battle by 123 to -45 a 168 unit increase on its backlog over Airbus. Backlog reduction is also important, but is a significant index lowering level during airplane wars is Airbus backlog starts slipping at an increasing rate from softer sales.

Narrowbodies Monopolize May Jetliner Sales

AINONLINE

by  GREGORY POLEK

A deal for 37 Airbus A320neos with Tigerair of Singapore led all order activity for the month of May. (Image: Airbus)

June 5, 2014, 12:27 PM

Sales of single-aisle airplanes completely filled the May order books for both Airbus and Boeing this year, increasing narrow body backlogs for both companies despite feverish production activity. The European airframer added 70 aircraft to its order book in May through transactions with both airline customers and leasing companies for its A320 product line, while U.S. manufacturer drew orders for ninety-nine 737s, primarily from unidentified customers. Through the first five months of the year Airbus reports a net order count of 203 while Boeing has registered 394.

For Airbus, an agreement with Singapore’s Tigerair for 37 A320neos to provide future fleet renewal and growth in operations across its Asia-Pacific route network led all May bookings. Meanwhile, Royal Brunei Airlines ordered seven A320neo jetliners for use on its regional network linking the Sultanate of Brunei’s capital and largest city, Bandar Seri Begawan, with destinations across Asia. The deals marked the first Neo orders from Royal Brunei and Tigerair, both existing customers for the A320ceo (current engine option) family.         

For Boeing, a deal for thirty 737Max jets and twenty 737-800NGs with unidentified customers represented the bulk of the order intake for the month, while the new Eastern Airlines of the U.S. ordered ten 737-800s, Thailand’s Nok Air committed to seven Maxs and eight 737-800s and Japan TransOcean Air took another six -800NGs. 

Airbus deliveries in May involved 45 A320-family aircraft, six A330s and four A380s.  At month-end, the combined total of Airbus deliveries in 2014 stood at 248 jetliners to 64 customers. Boeing, meanwhile, delivered thirty-nine 737s, seven 787-8s and eight 777s, raising its total for the year to 271 airplanes to 69 customers.

Boeing's War Of Attrition Against 787 Glitches

Boeing's constant war of attrition is paying aircraft dividends for its 787. First there were Boeing mouth pieces proclaiming the early launch in the fall of 2007 after its semi paper aircraft on 7/7/07. The egg shell then cracked showing no yoke. Then there were 3 plus years, actually closer to four years before it delivered one to ANA. The war of attrition against bad publicity had begun. Right time of year but in wrong year issue was dealt with a celebration from Boeing. The introductory speech began with an "oops, we bad" opening  omission.  However,  Boeing's PR ninja's were launched at that time with a plethora of techno wizards, all talking about everything 787. The war had begun against bad press clippings who would rely on incidences, as if money were to be made in the press each time it quoted "7late7", or in every news paragraph about the 787. Boeing generals went for the pink soothing stomach medicine as they agreed that somehow we need to attrite the enemy by,  making the ("7late7") verbiage cut and paste disappear.

Then there was build pains (delaminating, shims and fasteners during 2008-2010), and late in the period testing woes for the 787, where the a test airplane caught fire in the electrical panels, then Boeing selected its own panel of engineers to solve that problem as well. Just between panels, Boeing won round two. As many more woes appeared, Boeing was quick to try and respond in an ever increasing flat spin downward on the 787 reputation. When Boeing started to gain momentum, where it was exampled by the press who dropped the the 7late7 routine and  moved forward with a "troubled battery problem".  Boeing then took down and disbanded the electrical panel people, and went after "The Battery" with its battery of people squad.

The attrition was not going to let Boeing down, because they now have flying copies in both ANA and Japan Airlines in early 2013, over 50 787's were with customers by February 2013 when Boeing raised the white flag in front of the FAA cadre of nay Sayers. Grounding is like saying to your children, "its not going to happen on my watch". More attrition beset Boeing.

However, a board member does read its financial sheets, "Holy Comstock Load" was screamed in the Boeing hallways as the board meetings were about to transpire in accordance with the quarterly calender. Boeing now found its $20 billion hole in the report, the 787. A solution was contrived by mid 2013, Boeing needs to build 10 a month to "infinity and beyond" so it can ratchet itself out of the problematic cost losing black hole. A round of back slapping for everybody in the board meeting, "here-here" was the cheer.

Now comes the hard facts of attrition and glitches piled at Boeing's front door, what to do in 2014. "Let's make this pig fly" became the Boeing chant, and make anything wrong disappear. That was a turning point in this war of attrition. Boeing now has 146 flying copies at this moment with 98.8 percent reliability. They want to eliminate one more percent and make it 99.8 percent reliable like the the 777-300er. What has been accomplished is a fire line built against the battery compartment. Press convincing statements about the quieter use of the in-flight battery systems, where its primary function is placed on the ground after passengers go look for lost luggage. Landing gears that don't flub up. Engine solutions for any in flight events that it had. Lean production and elimination of work area flaws. The general maturity of the most technological airplane ever built has occurred in 2014, even so much more so than the A350, A380, and far more than an improbable A330 Neo. Boeing's war against attrition for the 787 is close to the end. Its like 8 months after D-Day in WWII. How fast can General Patton Move was the question then? Boeing is moving at an accelerated pace that it did not have in years previous, 2011-2013. Finding a glitch now in the news cycle, is so much harder, that I am reduced to reflective ideas such as this. I can't wait for the next big airshow, order announcement or testing bench mark. If that is the case, then Boeing has pushed back the Glitch Gremlin even though the causal battery problem has not been identified for the battery fix, only its fire dampening solution. The continuous improvement strategy is working. Within the next two years, the 787 will become the top operational dog of the fleet depending its systems computer detection, charting and other system problem solving tools making the aircraft a continuously safe airplane. The manufacturing and design imperfections are just about retired so that the any system recording and checking 787 analysis can operate an envisioned. Not reading about any glitch found on a 787 during the week is a slow blog week for me.

Therefore, out of slowness of failure I get to turn my attention towards other things Boeing is doing. Like for instance; its military arm where my first love of flight resides ever since my Uncles unique participation on the SR-71 began in 1964 or earlier. His information remains Top secret today after so many years, back when he began the project, even though he is at rest today. He shared a wealth of history with me, not secrets about the SR-71. All Super sonic flights today share the SR-71 lessons learned from the old fashioned way of design theory and performance limits. The Aurora project and ram jet technology learned the limits of the Jet engine and hull design from that project. Yes, lake Washington, near Seattle, makes a great spot using liquid wind tunnel dynamics for super sonic speed testing from  boat/hydroplanes across the water, where aviation developed SR-71 hull design.

Airplane Wars, Battle of The Engines

Red Font is the Rueters Report June 2, 2014.

Black Font Liftndrag interjections.

DOHA, June 1 (Reuters) - Boeing vowed on Sunday to carry out a smooth transition between current and future models of its two most profitable jets - the long-haul 777 and smaller 737 - and dismissed Airbus plans to overhaul its own A330 model.

Sales chief John Wojick told Reuters he was confident of selling enough of Boeing's current long-distance benchmark, the 777-300ER, to fill the gap until a new revamped 777X version enters service in 2020 and avoid any interim production cut.

"We are looking at solid demand for the airplane, and we think we can fill the bridge, and that is my job," Wojick, senior vice president of global sales & marketing at Boeing Commercial Airplanes, said in an interview.

Airbus is making a plea with SAA for its Ilk and the airlines is biting towards buying the Airbus Product with a fancy sales pitch that Airbus has a more "economic aircraft" than Boeing. Airbus is also buying a lot of fuel for its customers by dropping significant price point for its older aircraft models. Therefore, a few million off the list  price buys how many inefficient gallons burned?

Asked if he based his forecast on the current production rate of 8.3 aircraft a month, or 100 a year, he said, "yes".

Boeing and European rival Airbus are both focusing on overhauling their most cash-generating models to help pay for developments of two revolutionary carbon-fibre jetiners, the Boeing 787 Dreamliner and the Airbus A350.

While investors have welcomed this cautious strategy, analysts say both companies face challenges in keeping output of existing models stable while airlines wait for the new ones.

Airbus is upgrading its A320 family, which competes with the 737, while looking closely at upgrading its wide-body A330 jet.

If it decides to re-engine the 20-year-old A330, Airbus would be gambling that lower capital costs and proven reliability would be a match for the 787, which has had a spate of technical problems recently but has a lightweight design.

Boeing is significantly out of the woods on the 787 family problems. In fact the 787-9 just exampled Boeing`s lessons learned in a smooth transition to market this upcoming July for Air New Zealand. The 787-10 should be a ditto project. Mentioning 787 problems now is a moot point and not relevant in today's sales presentations. Listened to what Wojick notes about a re-engined A330 NEO.   He may be stretching it a little by saying a 30% advantage over the an A330 Neo but even it comes in at 25% its a game crusher for the A330 Neo. Airbus can't possibly catch-up a 30% improvement from the 787-10 over the current A330.

Wojick insisted those numbers would never add up.

"The 787-10 burns 30 percent less fuel per seat than the A330-300. That is going to obsolete the A330," he said.

"There isn't a price at which people will buy the A330 once (you have) 30 percent fuel savings. It is a huge benefit to an operator."

COMBATIVE

The remarks on the fringes of an annual meeting of the International Air Transport Association reflect a more combative tone after Boeing suffered market share losses to Airbus in sales of narrow-body jets.

They drew a sharp response from Wojick's counterpart at Airbus, chief operating officer for customers John Leahy, who told reporters the rejigged A330 would be Boeing's "nightmare".

Airbus is close to a decision on whether to launch the "A330neo", he said, adding that it would have similar cash operating costs to the main 787 model but cost less to buy.

Airbus and Boeing have been in a struggle for market share on short-haul jets since around 2011, when Airbus decided to upgrade the A320.

Leave it to John to say, "Rejigged A330 is a 787 Nightmare". However, John has to address physical properties of gravity, weight and thrust when using physics during talking about rejigging the A330. It must strap on new engines that will be better and reduce frame weight significantly while designing new wings of which they (Airbus) have not shown a propensity for excellent wing making.  Boeing has with the 787 fabulous wings. Using such a word as rejigging is a signal that Airbus is desperately trying to recoup its A350-800 as originally planned. If the A350-800 is so miserable in concept that only 30-40 have been ordered, it may indicate the customers know smoothing about Airbus' plastic concept at the small end. After all, Boeing quickly dumped the 787-700 model as it reached a point of plastic model resistance for having no discernible advantage with the smaller sized regional 787-700.  The A350-800 is a no-go and the A330NEO is a John Leahy "Rejigged Hail Mary". It sounds like Boeing has just asked Airbus and the A330 Neo for lunch. 

Airbus claims a 60 percent share of that market, but Wojick called the statement exaggerated and said Boeing had outsold its rival since deciding to re-engine its own 737.

He said Boeing had now sold enough of the existing 737NG models to ensure a smooth transition to the new 737 MAX.

"We are sold out on the 737NG," he said.

At the same time, he signalled that Boeing could keep raising output after reaching a goal of increasing production of the 737 family as a whole to 47 a month from 42.

Airbus has also hinted at future production increases from 2018 onwards after setting an earlier goal of 46 A320s a month.

Peabody goes back, to The Way Back Machine, with his friend Sherman and discusses how Airbus stole the march on single aisle, by announcing way ahead of Boeing's flat feet, the all new A320 Neo? Crazy orders came in. With this Airbus head start, it doesn't make the Neo Single aisle better or more popular with customers. It means just that they caught Boeing Flat-Footed and took on immense orders that first year, where Boeing has been closing the gap since then year by year.  Boeing has made its recovery point and people now have a single aisle choice. May the slickest single aisle win. Boeing stormed production right back up and is now flooding single aisle with new NG's so it can set up for the MAX and make a seamless production transition.

"We are pretty confident that with the demand that we are seeing for the 737 MAX, at some point out towards the end of the decade, we have got the possibility for even more airplane demand out there," Wojick said, adding he did not see evidence of a plane order 'bubble' that is being predicted by some analysts.

"When one region has financial difficulties, another region will be doing quite well," he said.

Asked about signs of an economic slowdown in Asia, where low-cost airlines have placed heavy orders for A320 and 737 jets, Wojick said, "I don't think you are seeing a huge change there, but I do think some of the airlines there are maybe not able to take all the airplanes that they were looking to take in a given time period".

Boeing has not seen airlines defer orders, he said, but he added, "Certainly we are not seeing them exercising all the options they have for growing even faster than they were predicting." (Additional reporting by Victoria Bryan, Siva Govindasamy, Amena Bakr; Editing by Praveen Menon and Jane Baird)

Back to the battle of the engines, when you have an airframe that is the most advanced on the planet, then it comes down to an engine war to make the difference in the fight for airspace. My logic is that you fit new high performance GE`s or Rolls Royce on that advanced frame then the builder maximizes its technology. If a builder tries for a NEO attempt of higher performance on a second tier heavy frame, like the metal ones are now considered, then you are putting lip stick on a pig. No matter how much you rejigged that pig during a modification. Airbus is doubling down on a thin bet with the A330 NEO concept. It is also getting desperate on its A350-800 nobody wants. Boeing is standing pat on its hand of aces. Wojick is not fluffing the Boeing party line, he is merely pointing out to customers, "The Great Gotcha", Boeing has over Airbus as Toulouse wanes its efforts on knee jerk counter measures in this dog fight.