The 787 When Will It Profit

The words, “when will it profit”, always seems to come up concerning the 787. This latest foray into the unknowns of glitch and change sets all the profit timetables back some, but not out.  The big picture is the overall new technology that will define air travel for some years to come. Whether it will be for the 777X program or for the 787 9-10’s. The profit picture no longer hangs on current sales, but on the overall impact of the change model Boeing has built in the 787. The program is still a risk which is steadily being squeezed down into simple manageable risks. This latest problem with the battery/electrical is a turning point for the program. Once settled there are just a few outstanding items possibly that could turn-up just as a matter of new aircraft refinement. Where hours, cycles and supply chain normally reveal during the maturing process, but only in limited numbers and severity. The electrical area is the big ticket item that requires this process a full understanding, and a full resolution. Airbus has a strategy or tendency for side stepping road blocks by selecting old technology over new when trying to make a mad dash of catching Boeing’s technological advances. Airbus may return to Lithium-ion once Boeing, FAA, and NTSB solve the issues. Airbus sees it as, nothing visible to passengers and nothing risked by its customers keeps aircraft selling. Boeing sees it as a quantum play for leaping ahead of Airbus once all the irons have cooled down in the fire.

Having stated this proposition of how the effects of new technology on the profit line for Boeing, it would be difficult to pinpoint a time when this will show up on the bottom line. Right now it is suspended in a gamblers nightmare of; do you let the money ride while throwing more money in to kept the game alive? If you do, Boeing would make all its money back in bucket loads, when the other hands fold. Boeing is at that crossroad on the 787 gamble. It will stay all in and ride it out, because that is the only way it can win. The investors know it and have responded as Boeing’s stock has elevated during the last three months. Airbus has backed off of Lithium-ion where it will add some weight, lose some battery performance and avoid a timetable crunch to get the A350 airborne.

Does Boeing gain enough by sticking with a heavier encasement for the battery? The 150 pound weight gain found in the 787 battery solution brings it closer to Airbus’s A350 battery weight. However, the performance of the lithium keeps the 787 a better performing Aircraft. I am sure Airbus is keenly watching this development as it has already switched back to the older, heavier and underperforming battery system as compared to Boeing’s Lithium-ion setup  The 150 weight gain may have to come out of reducing some parts items at one ounce at a time. Airbus could switch back to Lithium-Ion once the Aircraft is moved onto the flight line, letting Boeing do all the heavy lifting on this issue.

Quoting The Press:

“In this context, and with a view to ensuring the highest level of programme certainty, Airbus has decided to activate its plan B and therefore to revert back to the proven and mastered nickel cadmium main batteries for its A350 . . . programme.”

Aspire's Aviation, Boeing 777X Analysis

Aspires Aviation Featured Points of Interest: 

(Everything below the ("cut") and above the ("paste") is Aspire Aviation's clips from its Article) please read the article for additional information.

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• GE9X to feature 16 blades, versus 18 on GEnx engines
• Folding wingtip to be operated hydraulically
• Folding wingtip to improve lift-to-drag by 12%
• Folding wingtip 800lbs weight penalty, against 777-200′s 3,200lbs
• 777X to remain ICAO Code E aircraft on aprons
• 787-styled tail fin, elimination of overwing exit confirmed
• Elimination of overwing exit saves 1,000lbs of weight
• 787-styled larger dimmable windows, lower cabin altitude being studied
• 777-8X & -9X range boosted to around 8,100nm
• 777-8X to compete with A350-1000, banks on commonality advantages

Read full article on Link:

Kudos to Aspire Aviation as it lays out the 777X progress and arguments as a competitor.

“I think they are ready to go on that. I am hoping that within the next two or three weeks, we will engage with Boeing almost on a formal basis,” Emirates president Tim Clark was quoted as saying.

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Boeing is getting ready reach an important moment on the 777X. What is happening on the 787 affects the 777X program. Case in point, The 787 ETOPS will be resolved shortly with the assurance of the FAA after its testing and validation. A required step for full 787 functionality, stating the 787 is fit for service. 

Why the hesitation? Simplistic answer is that the FAA, NTSB and others must show its done its due diligence in certifying a troubled system. Before releasing the 787 back to its pre battery fire status. They must take Boeing to the brink and back again in the sweat box of examinations and posturing to appease all critics of Boeing's 787. Boeing is sweating and is scrambling and they will pass. 

The 777X is on because Boeing has the assurance that the 787 solution will pass an ETOP's review, IF they complete another ETOP's battery of tests. The caveat is found in the word, "If".

So with that in mind what has Boeing and Aspire wrought for the 777X? 

LiftnDrag summy of  Aspire Article in Bullet Points:

• Acceleration of 777X program during March 2013
• Movement of VP's, Best fit for specific project maturations such as for 737 Max, 787 and 777X
• 777X incorporates more 787 features for commonalities, linkage to Battery solution and ETOPs
• Carbon Fiber Wings not necessarily folding!

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This folding wingtip, along with a 787-styled wing, is going to enable Boeing to achieve a 12% improvement in lift-to-drag (L/D) ratio with a minimal weight penalty at 800lbs (362.8kg), compared to the 3,200lbs (1.45 tonnes) weight penalty associated with the original folding wingtip design studied on the 777-200, while adding 30m² (322.9ft²) wing area added to the 777-300ER’s one of 436.8m² (“Boeing 777X & 787-10X unfazed by 787 battery woes“, 14th Feb, 13).

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• Skin Technology is changing, 12% weight savings:

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"On the other hand, while the fuselage material choice remains wide open in selecting either the traditional aluminium or 3rd-generation aluminium-lithium for the 777X, Aspire Aviation believes choosing Alcoa’s 3rd-generation aluminium-lithium that will reduce weight by 12% and 6% reduction in skin friction is pivotal to providing a larger window size and lowering the cabin altitude despite the higher cost involved.

Crucially, 3rd-generation aluminium-lithium technology is a proven and mature one that is readily available today, such as Alcoa’s Al-Li 2060-T8E30 product has an around 16.7% higher specific strength than the Al 2524-T3 used on today’s 777 to around 175 MPa/(gm/cm³) from its predecessor’s 150 MPa/(gm/cm³), with a higher stretch form-ability  Moreover, choosing the aluminium-lithium for the 777X will require no change in production tooling but only a change in coating, a misconception disproved by Spirit AeroSystems’ 737 rear fuselage panel using the Al-Li 2060 material with existing production tooling."

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• 787 like flight surfaces note: Vertical stabilizer like 787

So  lets call the 777X another Max aircraft. They are stripping technology off the 787 like its a pick-apart jalopy salvage yard. Nothing is wrong with that approach, and Boeing is doing something sensible by building on technology paid for with money lost on the 787 project. Its the lessons learned jalopy going from the yard to formula one racing. A very crude analogy but the description shows a transition from the 787, back to an upgraded 777X,  without starting with a clean chalkboard for its all new 777X designs. Jeep came out with a badge on its 4x4 Jeeps as "Trail Rated".  The Max and the 777X should wear a Badge on its hull as "787 Optimized".

However, that should wait about two years until the battery problem is discharged. ETOPs restriction is not a bluff, or will it not really become an implementation of the FAA. The Boeing company will fiercely do its job and get the 787 to ETOPs certification once again, through a demonstration over the next six months on no Battery issues. Even if it has to buy the battery company and do it right. Shared technology risks are a bugger too, it can bit back if your supplier fails to execute when depending on that execution. Risks are called risks because of the uncertainty of absolutes.  Nothing is absolute and everything is risky. The closer Boeing diminishes risks and defines absolutes by intersecting at the FAA, the better Boeing becomes.
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	A350-900	A350-1000	777-300ER	777-8X	777-9X
3-class pax no.	314	350	365	353	407
Range (nm)	8,100	8,400	7,825	8,100	8,100
MTOW (kg)	268,000	308,000	351,530	315,000	344,000
MLW (kg)	205,000	233,000	251,290	n/a	n/a
MZFW (kg)	192,000	220,000	237,683	n/a	n/a
MEW/MWE (kg)	115,700	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
OEW (kg)	n/a	n/a	167,829	n/a	n/a
Overall length (m)	66.89	73.88	73.9	69.55	76.48
Wingspan (m)	64.75	64.75	64.8	71.1	71.1
Diameter (m)	5.96	5.96	6.19	6.19	6.19
Cabin Width (m)	5.61	5.61	5.86	n/a	n/a
Engines	Rolls-Royce Trent XWB-84	Rolls-Royce Trent XWB-97	General Electric GE90-115B	General Electric GE9X	General Electric GE9X
Thrust (lbs)	84,000	97,000	115,300	~90,000	~100,000

Sources: Airbus, Boeing, Aspire Aviation estimates

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The Boeing Battery Paradox.

From all the articles written gains an understanding of a paradox on the electrical systems fault of battery vs electrical current. What has been discovered is:

·      Some voltage irregularities in its battery charging.

·      Internal electrical shorts occurring in its battery

·      An understated fire protection, and exposure of gaseous discharges, compromising hull atmosphere existed.

·      Lack of diligence for its battery production and testing.

·      No known causal listing of how a battery fails under operational tasks.

At this point Boeing can only break down the system in a series of controls that isolate probable causes for a failure. Establish a safety protocol for an unknown cause, but towards eliminating known risks within the electrical system and Lithium-Ion Battery performance.

So, without knowing causal steps towards for: run away instability, fire, and overheating, Boeing remains stumped on quantifying a solution specifically for the Lithium-Ion battery’s melt down.  All those flights and cycles made without an incidence, then bam, two hot batteries within a short space of time.

Boeing has to review the age of the affected system, cycles and parts through its parts batch numbers. Any anomaly from parts production on those aircraft can trace back to origin. They are now past that phase of the investigation.  Then they looked at the charging unit and any factors that contribute to the Lithium-Ion battery health, as its charging unit inputs or discharges through voltage regulation.

Boeing determined an occasional spike from the charging unit, could contribute to degradation of the battery health by creating the possibility of electrical shorts or fault at battery cell level. This could continue to strain the battery as more shorts continue to occur, and the demand increases on the healthy cell area of the battery.

The operational range of the battery is compromised with these “shorts”, and leads to an overheating battery, discharging heated gases and finally fire.  No one can absolutely confirm this type of battery failure with these progressions, while under its operational load. Boeing now has monitoring of a battery’s thermal load and efficiency skewed towards thermal values which would indicate a degrading battery function is occurring from shorts. The front line of Boeing’s robust solution is at the factory level of:

·      Checking it twice before leaving the factory floor.

·      Voltage range regulation having tighter low and top range numbers where no anomaly can pass affecting cell integrity from shorts and a depletion of its cellular performance, which would cause a heat, gas fire condition.

·      Securing the battery from heat propagation from cell to cell under failing conditions.

·      Denying fire its oxygen.

·      Containing the battery in a sealed stainless steel fire proof enclosure.

·      Venting deadly gases over board.

The first two bullets are for chasing unknown rainbows of cause, and taking on these measures could be the simple solution. By not ever having a fire/heat/gas problem again, would suggest somewhere in there was the problem and the solution. 

If Boeing never has another fire in that area over the next million or so hours, then they guessed correctly with solid assumptions. If “they” somehow, missed the mark on those two bullet point, then they have a robust safety containment system that will get everyone home safely. 

Boeing has given the FAA, NTSB and others this assurance, techno paper, and its best effort for a resolution.  The FAA will test the assumptions and logic as a valid substitute in place knowing causal factors.  The containment and safety systems makes root cause a moot point.

Boeing's Tail Problem Of Self Inflicted Arrogance

During a time when humility should have a liberal application of salve applied to the wounds. Boeing strikes at the scabs before they are healed. They wag the dog! During its dog and pony show in Japan, not so long ago, Boeing tries to lead The Federal Aviation Handlers across aviation's dance floor. The NTSB and FAA were not amused, enchanted, or enthralled by the two left feet of Boeing's Dog wagging tail in front of Japanese stone faced clients. Even though it was slightly noticed by the few in the know, a significant Faux Pas had occurred. 

Yes the verbal slight of hand, occurred on no less than Live Streaming, for all the world to see. Here are some news clips of the problem.

NTSB:(Angry)
“The NTSB’s primary concern is that during their March 15 briefing in Tokyo on the modifications to the 787 battery system, Boeing representatives provided their own analysis and conclusions regarding an ongoing NTSB investigation,” Kelly Nantel, an safety board spokeswoman, said in a statement.




Boeing: (Lawyered Up)

“We have received the correspondence, and remain fully committed to support the NTSB and other regulatory authorities in their investigations into the cause of the 787 battery incidents, and also continue our around-the-clock efforts to return the 787 fleet to service,” said Marc Birtel, a Boeing spokesman.

Mike Sinnett "All In" Along Side "The Fix"

If this were a criminal trial, and Boeing being the client for the defense, went out on the street and talked to reporters during the trial explaining its innocents; when they were told to keep its mouth shut until after the trial; then Boeing is really stupid like a ditsy Blond from an old Perry Mason TV episode. 
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(Bloomberg Report Paste in below dashes)

Using Bloomberg's Case In Point

Briefing Comments:

Boeing officials at the briefing in Tokyo said their proposed design changes to the Dreamliner’s battery systems may allow commercial flights to restart within weeks, pending the FAA’s approval. While the NTSB is investigating the incidents, it doesn’t have authority over flights.

Mike Sinnett, vice president and chief project engineer for the 787, said that the NTSB’s preliminary findings on the Jan. 7 fire in Boston indicated there hadn’t been flames within the battery case.

“It was widely reported that there were flames, explosions and fires,” Sinnett said. Referring to the agency’s initial findings, he said: “In the factual report you can see that the only report of flame was two small three-inch flames on the front of the battery box on the connector. There were no flames inside the battery.”

When asked about the comments the next day, Peter Knudson, a safety board spokesman, said investigators hadn’t ruled out fire within the battery case.

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(Bloomberg Report paste in above dashes)

Somewhere in between a haystack fire and a match, lies the truth. Boeing crosses the line of investigative etiquette, and blabs its own reality on the street. Read the full Bloomberg article for a good accounting. Boeing is under a lot of pressure for saving the program. They did not keep its powder dry nor did it wait to see the whites of their eyes. They blew off the war of 1812 and didn't listen to Andrew Jackson.  If this is all true as reported from Bloomberg, a line is crossed during an investigation for proprieties sake, then Boeing's panic attack was all over the internet. Note to Boeing, take a Xanax and a nap before hyperventilating into a lunch sack in Japan.  

Was the NTSB talking about thermal runaway or Boeing's public executive anxiety attack? These issues, although not imperiling the recovery of the 787 program, suggests that Boeing's feet are firmly in the fire, and it is really starting to hurt. That presentation held in Japan was an outgrowth to do something quickly, and Boeing did something quickly. NTSB's jaw dropped!

Mean while back at the Boeing plantation, what is happening would happen anyways regardless of Boeing's Tokyo anxiety attack. The NTSB, et al, is really perturbed, but the show goes on regardless of Boeing's lost nerve, and its blabbing.  Once again nothing has changed in the progressions of moving forward while solving the problem. Sometimes viewing the big picture lets you know the inner working of a corporate dysfunction. 

All will be fixed in short order. Boeing needs to have a coming out party, later rather than sooner. The airplane wars aren't won by wide margins, but by the tinniest of margins. Boeing must not blink or have public anxiety attacks when the NTSB team that will help you during your day in court says, "play by the rules", then play by the rules, and don't blab on the street.  

Ryanair CEO Calls Boeing 787 Problems 'Regulatory Crap'

Mr. Michael O'Leary is my poster CEO this week!

Date Line: 12/28/2012 My Link on the old O'Leary Blog

"Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary on Thursday, speaking about a plan to swoop in on jet orders he believes other carriers will drop, again voiced a negative opinion of the Boeing CO.’s 737 MAX.

Listen and Watch Then read below:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100568271

I take everything I said badly about Ryan Air and Mr. Michael O'Leary "BACK", after this interview!  Too much fun to keep this guy down!

My Blog Quote:  Not long ago, it was reported by the head cheese from Ryan Air, that the 737 Max is Rubbish. That CEO is still employed having Ryan Air under his careful guidance.  Why the name calling and hate mongering for Boeing's new product? I hope to answer that question after we examine a "brief" on the 737 Max. First here is an excerpt from March 29, 2012 news clippings.

This interview is a hoot. And really tells what happening in Western Europe. Let alone with Ryan Air's 175 Next Generation 737. Airbus will have its hand full with the Max coming online in the next three years.

O'Leary wants seats, the Rubin remark is a fire for effect attention getter. Attention he got with the 175 ordered NGs.

Further Blog Insert from WSJ:

WBJ site report from the Rubbish pile: Citation below by Daniel McCoy of WBJ

"Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary on Thursday, speaking about a plan to swoop in on jet orders he believes other carriers will drop, again voiced a negative opinion of the Boeing Co.’s 737 MAX.

Although he said Airbus’ A320neo “does credibly deliver” on its promised fuel savings, the 737 Max “as a product, is rubbish,” according to a report from Bloomberg.

This isn't the first time O’Leary has voiced his opinion on the 737 MAX, Boeing’s new engine variant of the 737.

In January, he said he was “unimpressed” with the aircraft and expected that weight issues would offset the fuel savings Boeing says the plane will offer.

The leader of European low-fare carrier also said he is interested in a jetliner that he’s hoping will be developed by China."

More to say On What Was Said On The 787 Fix

On January 22, 2013 I said this:

The Boeing Fix That Is In A Fix   The reference Blog from LifnDrag

Cut and Paste below dotted line

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"The March 20th, is my 60 Day Self Imposed Deadline, For

The Fix and Fly

"The When" is now until the next 60 57 days?  Boeing will start flying the 787 within sixty fifty-seven days.  All hands are on deck with Boeing and its suppliers.  Money and time make a bad partner when the clock starts losing money. Suppliers have been served and Boeing engineering is reallocating to deal with this problem, not just over the week-end, but in a 24/7 manner.  Buy stock in Starbucks until this problem is solved. Next year’s Christmas bonuses are being earned at this time.

The press will report how the battery maker in Japan had an in-line production fault.  The people who knew how to put the battery together was on vacation and the replacement crew, who said they knew, hadn't put one together in a while. Where they used old procedures, and did not employ the new procedures, therefore caused the battery to have inherent faults resulting in fire.  That's my report before the findings come out from FAA."

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Now 60 days have almost passed and where are the Harold's of Boeing now saying"

Its Weeks now, and how many, are weeks?

No longer is Boeing staring at June as the time solution but the end of April.

Some say two weeks before the first ANA or Lot is back up in the air.

So I missed it by 30 days, stone me! Boeing intends to fly ANA at the end of April with the FAA sprinkling of documents over corporate heads.

Back on 1/22/2013 I believed Boeing would have its arms around the crises and would be back to flying in 60 days. I am not a corporate guy and don't know how fast auto pens, and rubber stamps operate in the modern era.

However, Boeing with the Airplane washed and tires shined, will show up in two weeks for its Spring prom date with the FAA. Tires screeching and a banner on the antenna. What is known, Boeing will pull up in about two weeks for its prom date. Will Boeing's date be ready, or stuck in some dressing room with final preparations?  It is customary for the guy to have to wait a few minutes, especially if the girl is somewhat reluctant in the first place? Yes to all those Questions. Just because the FAA doesn't use auto pen, or a rubber stamp anymore, add some waiting time, making the Boeing boy extremely impatient and stressed. However the flowers won't go stale. FAA wants fresh flowers and a good time in front of its other governing bodies, that are found around the world of Airplane proms.  Japan, and Europe need to be sufficiently envious of the FAA at this dance. Boeing will be on its best behavior with the nicest Airplane on the tarmac. Japan is planning to double up with Boeing after the dance at the fueling station for shakes and flying. Remember Boeing, have her back home flying before May AM!

777X Gets Its Engine

Tattoo of Fantasy Island Fame would let Ricardo  Montalbán, his boss know, of an arrival of "de plane, de plane."

Now the cry goes out once more "de engine, de engine" much to Rolls Royce's chagrin. This milestone means several important factors are assured on the 777X.  What goes on in Everett stays in Everett. Las Vegas is a place to fly to and Everett is a place to fly from using GE engines. The air will now clear for Paris. Here are my predictions in Paris.

The Swiss Army Knife Composite Wings On Display. Look for these signs in Paris.

Dolly Parton will announce the new set of GE-9X Cans at The Paris Airshow, then she is off to Cannes.

I think most of you are now getting the Paris Airshow picture at this point.

Boeing has to be ready for this splash, and will take no prisoners when wowing the attendees.  I'm guessing a wing or two will show-up flying in, inside a Dream-Lifter. Imagine that, a display for nothing but a wing next to the Swiss Army Knife display. It will actually actuate, up and down, and may be placed on a turn-table so it may articulate in circle between two other Boeing's near-by.  However I'm just Dreaming of what could be in the French Cheese Department at Paris. But I know Boeing is a much more refined bunch of Techno Nerds who talk in complete sentences at a boring pace. See Battery Seminar held in Japan in March or on the 14th-15th (dateline issue) for Techno types.

Here is a propitious Link

GE In, Rolls Out As Boeing Seeks 777X Approval

By Guy Norris, Aviation Week

I believe Boeing is rolling the 777X dice for the often repeated reasons.

·       Airbus is pretty much set on the A350 Design and configurations

• Boeing is prepared to be a un-A350 like frame, with its designs, where it will entice the traveling public on-board hoping the public will think, "a second story is so Victorian on an Airplane". 
• The hold-up has been waiting for technologies to settle-in for 777X.  Engines and wings signal a settlement has occurred and the night shift for CAD guys and gales have kicked into high gear. 
• R&D is now doing a new wing, embolden by the 787 wing experience. 
• Mike Carriker, Chief Test Pilot, Loves the Albatross wings that must fold while on land and sail relentlessly without effort. 

Battery solution will drive the magic show on the 777X inside. If a Battery solution is in place by the Paris Airshow, then people will see extra power-point shows on things "Airbus has not done with the A-350". It will be all about where the A-350 falls short and the 777 exceeds in a new form.  If the old 777 excels past the A-350-8, the new 777X may show that wasting another Euro, time, and effort chasing the Dreamliner and the 777X is will not benefit a European economic recovery.

Portfolio of LiftnDrag 777X Blogs: 

777X Getting-Its-Wings-Awaits-Engine

Tax Season Has Hit The 777X

The 777X Project Is Going Underground Call It Project X

Post Battery Technology For Dummies Conference

So much more is known about how much is not known and so more is done for the prevention of what the unknown has done, That what we will know is that Boeing has put lightening back in the bottle and will not let it out again.

Boeing has sufficiently built a lightning bottle to house the lightning.

Passengers need to know List:

• Batteries are not needed to technically fly or land the aircraft.
• The Boeing 787 has Plans A,B,C,D and E to fly the airplane without batteries. (4 generators and Ram air generator)
• A Battery Failure will never affect flight characteristic or landing.
• A battery is used for ground support operations and carried on all aircraft for that purpose
• The greatest danger for passengers is any fire and smoke on any aircraft

The Boeing Bottle Holding The Lightening:

Enclosure:

• A battery Fire cannot occur inside the Battery enclosure
• Titanium Use in critical areas where heat is present.
• Stainless Steel Sealed Case
• Special insulation between 8 electrical storage cells, prevents heat propagation
• Special Wiring insulation
• Special protection top, bottom and sides in the enclosure
• Special Dielectric Harnesses or frames, layered on cells
• Inert status by starving battery enclosure of oxygen (no fire, no fuel or oxygen)
• Electrolyte detection, and venting of heated gases overboard through exhaust tubes

Note: no longer a use of plastics, or flammable parts, as was in prior enclosures. Plastic is  a source of  fuel for fire.

Electrical Tweaking.

• Battery charger reprogrammed not allowing any voltage anomalies (spikes) to invade the Battery core,  causing shorts within Battery environment.
• Limits of Charging set on the high end and low end maintaining a more consistent and safe flow of power to and from the battery when charging and discharging occurs.
• More robust battering testing done at manufacturer, detecting battery faults using tighter standards.

http://www.boeingblogs.com/randy/       Click on link for full article

Borrowing from Randy's Blog VP Boeing Sales, Randy Tenseth

From Randy's Journal, VP Boeing



Randy's Journal, VP Boeing




Randy's Journal, VP Boeing


New titanium fixtures are being installed in the electronics equipment bays to ensure the housing is properly supported.