Take a jet with superior maneuverability. speed and stealth. And! then add a no-budget line new radar system, then Iran will lose it's airforce and missile emplacements to the US. Say good-bye to Irans F-4 and medium/short-range defensive missiles. Yes, the F-22 is more expensive than you know.
It has technological features without any budget assigned to it. That's why the F-22 is the badest fighter in the sky. Talk radar, I can't. Talk missile loads, I can't. Talk about the F-22's stealth, I somewhat can!
The F-22 is really bad and Iran only has a few workable F-4's from the Vietnam era that can't hide. It will scavenge parts from the nonflying copies or make their own parts for a maintenance hole created by "old" era jets They are just flying practice targets for the US Airforce. Back to the F-22 radar, it's more secret than the F-22 itself for which the F-35 will have in some form.
Thursday, January 9, 2020
Monday, January 6, 2020
As in WWII it wasn't the Weapon
It was the making of that weapon in great numbers without any harassment applied to its making process. The US was set in relative separation position could build in great numbers what Europe needed. Soldiers, planes, munition ships and so forth while Germany's genius was bombed into dust from 44-45. The F-35 is the newest player from America. Even if Russia could build fleets of war implementations could they stay pace with quality and quantity both are needed for any war effort? The F-35 is nearing 500 flying examples the Su-57 about 12 test version for its stab into the next generation. By the year 2025, the US and its allies will have 1,000 flying F-35 copies embedded into the war front and maybe china and Russia can answer with 500 5th generation at best. New drones, missiles and energy weapons by the year 2020 are more game-changers emerging from a military defense ramp-up. It is the culture of the US from this point forward or until losing the military complex high ground.
Monday, December 23, 2019
How Bad Is The Boeing Death Spiral? Muilenburg Bad!
Boeing just fired Dennis Muilenburg, Its CEO. It was bad when Dennis took the top chair and now he bears the brunt of a sloppy corporate philosophy. Jump out with Boeing money and damn the torpedoes. Now Boeing lets him go and thinks it needs a change before it gets SERIOUS.
CNN Business Reports:
Orlando Sentinal Muilenburg Fall from grace
CNN Business Reports:
Orlando Sentinal Muilenburg Fall from grace
"Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg was ousted on Monday after a tumultuous period in which the company faced a series of setbacks, including two fatal crashes, delays and numerous issues with its 737 Max airplane. Boeing continues to struggle to get its most important product back in the air.
Chairman David Calhoun will take over as CEO, effective January 13, 2020."
Boeing is falling on its sward and this admits to its folly when canning Muilenburg.
Please review prior Winging It news opinion.
Monday, December 9, 2019
When Will The F35 Fight?
A prediction of a first fight against the F-35 is set in the next ten years. It will involve the F-35 against Russian technology in the Middle East. Look to see the Russian missile system compromised during this type of conflict in the region and then using a Naval contingent back-dooring Israel from the Mediterranean and using supporting Russian players from Muslim nations as the means for its end of battle.
Israel's Adair will need a fleet of 35 units and neutralize adversarial ground assets to counter an assortment those same adversarial combatants and its equipment. Like most of Israel's wars it will be not elongated in time because it has mostly a first punch take the high ground philosophy. If Israel cannot get it mitigated in a fortnight the US will have to deploy within the region on its own behalf. The fortnight could look like this. A mass of all muslim assets in the region with a Russian game changing involvement. Particular a liberal use of Russia's S-400 missile system on Turkey's behalf.
Israel will keep a short game within five hundred miles of its borders. Tactical nukes cannot be ignored in this scenario. The conflict battle minutes are as if they were days comparing from past conflicts like WWII. The five year conflict will compress into less than a month of time to exhaust military resources before more can be brought into a regional conflict. If this spreads to hemispheric conflict then it will last six months because military productivity is slower than a battle progress and destruction. War efficiency will name the winner.
In other words, how fast can a super power get to the battle space and commit will affect war duration and outcome. In a week three phase of battle Israel will be reduced to ancillary role using its self defense assets to preserve itself if it cannot deliver a capitchulating blow within the first 14 days. Outer Space becomes a new and crucial factor. Push button technology will determine the final outcome. Those nations with the best military toys and most will prevail. The world will be reshaped at the end of this cyclic escapade as measured through history of wars and how often. It is periodic and predictable and China will stay out unless it sees opportunity to rule over weakened powers.
The F-35 will fight until there are no more. In this prediction it bring almost a thousand to the front. It will harness all military assets from ground to orbit to defeat an adversary in an overarching display of technological dominance.
Israel's Adair will need a fleet of 35 units and neutralize adversarial ground assets to counter an assortment those same adversarial combatants and its equipment. Like most of Israel's wars it will be not elongated in time because it has mostly a first punch take the high ground philosophy. If Israel cannot get it mitigated in a fortnight the US will have to deploy within the region on its own behalf. The fortnight could look like this. A mass of all muslim assets in the region with a Russian game changing involvement. Particular a liberal use of Russia's S-400 missile system on Turkey's behalf.
Israel will keep a short game within five hundred miles of its borders. Tactical nukes cannot be ignored in this scenario. The conflict battle minutes are as if they were days comparing from past conflicts like WWII. The five year conflict will compress into less than a month of time to exhaust military resources before more can be brought into a regional conflict. If this spreads to hemispheric conflict then it will last six months because military productivity is slower than a battle progress and destruction. War efficiency will name the winner.
In other words, how fast can a super power get to the battle space and commit will affect war duration and outcome. In a week three phase of battle Israel will be reduced to ancillary role using its self defense assets to preserve itself if it cannot deliver a capitchulating blow within the first 14 days. Outer Space becomes a new and crucial factor. Push button technology will determine the final outcome. Those nations with the best military toys and most will prevail. The world will be reshaped at the end of this cyclic escapade as measured through history of wars and how often. It is periodic and predictable and China will stay out unless it sees opportunity to rule over weakened powers.
The F-35 will fight until there are no more. In this prediction it bring almost a thousand to the front. It will harness all military assets from ground to orbit to defeat an adversary in an overarching display of technological dominance.
Thursday, December 5, 2019
Turkey In The Short Straw
What is Turkey's play? The S-400 Russian Missile or the American made F-35? There are many talking points for both systems such as cost, management and military functionality for the nation but it appears Turkey has drawn the short straw for its military position by buying the S-400 missile instead of the F-35.
That tells me the complexity of the US system is much more affecting the Turkey's defense strategy from the costs, training and maintaining of the Lockheed F-35 system than the S-400 Russian system. It seems Turkey went the cheaper route when stumbling NATO over its own S-400 purchase. It will be soon where Turkey's S-400 buy-in will be nullified by a combination of drone, special forces and various aviation tools including the F-35 for disabling those same Russian made Turkish systems. Turkey is taking a big risk on the missile system doing by what is reported about it. It can and will be neutralized by NATO assets and Turkey will find itself well beyond the political intrigue Erdogan is now levering against its allies in NATO by buying military weapons from Russia. The current solution is to cut the cancer out today by blocking any sales, then chemo the political will Erdogan holds over Turkey before eradicating the region with radiation before the patient is pronounced dead.
Turkey is drawing the short straw on bad advice at this time in history and its people are unaware of what is happening to its home.
That tells me the complexity of the US system is much more affecting the Turkey's defense strategy from the costs, training and maintaining of the Lockheed F-35 system than the S-400 Russian system. It seems Turkey went the cheaper route when stumbling NATO over its own S-400 purchase. It will be soon where Turkey's S-400 buy-in will be nullified by a combination of drone, special forces and various aviation tools including the F-35 for disabling those same Russian made Turkish systems. Turkey is taking a big risk on the missile system doing by what is reported about it. It can and will be neutralized by NATO assets and Turkey will find itself well beyond the political intrigue Erdogan is now levering against its allies in NATO by buying military weapons from Russia. The current solution is to cut the cancer out today by blocking any sales, then chemo the political will Erdogan holds over Turkey before eradicating the region with radiation before the patient is pronounced dead.
Turkey is drawing the short straw on bad advice at this time in history and its people are unaware of what is happening to its home.
Tuesday, November 26, 2019
Profit Dollar Crashes Both Governance And Max
Long after the two Max crashes it has trickled down there is an imperfection in what makes modern jets stay flying. Is it from the factory floor where assemblers are tired of build process and leave workmanship for the next shift. Is it execs who love floating about in Golden parachutes, or is it government governance overwhelmed to even check it twice and then depend on Golden parachutes and workmanship to take care of air devastation? A good question is raised from those with clipboards walking about asking who is responsible for the broom leaning up in the corner of a big production floor building?
FAA is overwhelmed, execs search for profit dollars and workers seek how efficiently they hid the dirty parts and saved the corporation from spending money on due diligence once the production floor. Passengers want a cheap ticket and airlines too want a fat paycheck after discount fares are offered. The spiral down is complete waiting for planet earth to gather up another airplane. Airbus is not exempt from a catastrophe. Airbus is just lucky, it too has a multitude of near misses from crashing. In a perfect world, craftsmen and women catch engineering errors. Execs look for the best pathway forward and sometimes it cost more to be safe than sorry. The US government must not spend billions of dollars every day until it can properly staff the FAA with leading experts in the field of aviation. All problems cannot be solved all the time but it can mitigate the sloppy nature aircraft are made and delivered to the various profit makers.
FAA is overwhelmed, execs search for profit dollars and workers seek how efficiently they hid the dirty parts and saved the corporation from spending money on due diligence once the production floor. Passengers want a cheap ticket and airlines too want a fat paycheck after discount fares are offered. The spiral down is complete waiting for planet earth to gather up another airplane. Airbus is not exempt from a catastrophe. Airbus is just lucky, it too has a multitude of near misses from crashing. In a perfect world, craftsmen and women catch engineering errors. Execs look for the best pathway forward and sometimes it cost more to be safe than sorry. The US government must not spend billions of dollars every day until it can properly staff the FAA with leading experts in the field of aviation. All problems cannot be solved all the time but it can mitigate the sloppy nature aircraft are made and delivered to the various profit makers.
Monday, November 11, 2019
2019, Meh!
Boeing is doing over the year 2019 during 2020. It will re engage the Max to service and fly the 777X to Farnborough on a big hop across the Atlantic. Sales for its 787 have slowed but expect a few 787 order surprises at Farnborough aviation show. Boeing wants to show off safety and technology as its theme but it wants to secretly demonstrate market strength as its devoted single aisle customers re energizes the 737 Max offering thus blunting an Airbus order rout during the last 12 months from Farnborough's show date.
Boeing is quietly clearing the mishap cobwebs and fixing its 777X problems at it has already taken a delivery on GE9X engine fixes. So tweeks were needed on the 777X program development. Where that is now completed and where it remains to fly and fly a 777X all the way to Farnborough. It will carry "testing bodies" along with that endeavor. It's not too early to say Boeing is quickly coming back in 2020 and putting 2019 aviation news pundits to bed by year's end.
Boeing is quietly clearing the mishap cobwebs and fixing its 777X problems at it has already taken a delivery on GE9X engine fixes. So tweeks were needed on the 777X program development. Where that is now completed and where it remains to fly and fly a 777X all the way to Farnborough. It will carry "testing bodies" along with that endeavor. It's not too early to say Boeing is quickly coming back in 2020 and putting 2019 aviation news pundits to bed by year's end.
Friday, October 18, 2019
Deferred Costs And Boeing's Dreams
Deferred cost is a noted Boeing contrived concept in program accounting. It takes so many billion to develop an airplane. In Boeing's case it spent about $30 Billion more developing the 787 than it had, so it programmed how many 787's it needed to build in order to pay-off that 30 $$ billion debt it had incurred. It also adjusts the number of production models it needs to build to pay for an ever expanding production debt as technology is developed and introduced to that aircraft. Kind of like a line of credit on its credit card.
Boeing needed about 1,100 of its 787 delivered to pay off this deferral of debt. Where each airplane it delivered was more efficiently built thus allowing more money available to pay down deferred 787 cost with each airplane it had built. However, the 787 incurred more debt greater than its production efficiency, so it had to increase the projected 787's it needed to deliver to reduced the deferred cost to a theoretical zero balance when delivering oh let's say 1,200-1,300, or 1600 hundred 787s.
Each of those deferred costs broken down into units delivered while its benchmark kept increasing as the aircraft matured as the production cost increased because technology improvements were added as its development costs increased for those improvements. It's like a dog chasing its costs tail. Is 1,600 units the ultimate deferred cost benchmark? That answer remains to seen as Boeing has not yet sold 1,600 units and for what price going forward. I would speculate to say Boeing will sell enough 787 to past 1600 units but it will also take another five years to extinguish its 787 deferred development cost for the 787. The year 2025 is a more doable time frame for investors unless Boeing gets more significant breakthroughs on build costs through material efficiencies or equipment development.
Always improving is a cost factor that can be derived from from historical data. It can be a cost component factor turned into a quantifiable number as a forecasting component. Also sales or commitments is a number in the same position. It can be factored in a forward looking estimation from global history and commercial trends. Somewhere in between lies the fact. So a computer guess is needed to surmise where Boeing will reach its deferred costs nervana of zero balance after the (nth number) of units are delivered and revenue is realized for each unit against its actual current production cost.
There are two costs before the margin is establish. One portion goes towards the deferred balance and one towards the actual production of an aircraft. Once the aircraft is delivered, the accounting flows can continue through the accounting programs at an actual rate where deferred costs are actually reduced and a profit margin outside the deferred cost is applied. It becomes a tangled view of when
real value is recognized for the 787 program by investors. It is probably safe to say, investors must make money with Boeing during the near term investment cycles of stock values and during value increases or decreases. Investors may wait another five years for making money on the long term program completion from program Investment cycles.
I am not a stock analyst and do not make recommendations for stock purchasing. I only guess like the next person what may happened in the "market place". So invest at your own capability, means or risk.
Boeing needed about 1,100 of its 787 delivered to pay off this deferral of debt. Where each airplane it delivered was more efficiently built thus allowing more money available to pay down deferred 787 cost with each airplane it had built. However, the 787 incurred more debt greater than its production efficiency, so it had to increase the projected 787's it needed to deliver to reduced the deferred cost to a theoretical zero balance when delivering oh let's say 1,200-1,300, or 1600 hundred 787s.
Each of those deferred costs broken down into units delivered while its benchmark kept increasing as the aircraft matured as the production cost increased because technology improvements were added as its development costs increased for those improvements. It's like a dog chasing its costs tail. Is 1,600 units the ultimate deferred cost benchmark? That answer remains to seen as Boeing has not yet sold 1,600 units and for what price going forward. I would speculate to say Boeing will sell enough 787 to past 1600 units but it will also take another five years to extinguish its 787 deferred development cost for the 787. The year 2025 is a more doable time frame for investors unless Boeing gets more significant breakthroughs on build costs through material efficiencies or equipment development.
Always improving is a cost factor that can be derived from from historical data. It can be a cost component factor turned into a quantifiable number as a forecasting component. Also sales or commitments is a number in the same position. It can be factored in a forward looking estimation from global history and commercial trends. Somewhere in between lies the fact. So a computer guess is needed to surmise where Boeing will reach its deferred costs nervana of zero balance after the (nth number) of units are delivered and revenue is realized for each unit against its actual current production cost.
There are two costs before the margin is establish. One portion goes towards the deferred balance and one towards the actual production of an aircraft. Once the aircraft is delivered, the accounting flows can continue through the accounting programs at an actual rate where deferred costs are actually reduced and a profit margin outside the deferred cost is applied. It becomes a tangled view of when
real value is recognized for the 787 program by investors. It is probably safe to say, investors must make money with Boeing during the near term investment cycles of stock values and during value increases or decreases. Investors may wait another five years for making money on the long term program completion from program Investment cycles.
I am not a stock analyst and do not make recommendations for stock purchasing. I only guess like the next person what may happened in the "market place". So invest at your own capability, means or risk.
Friday, October 11, 2019
Boeing Oust Muilenburg As Chairman
Another Max crash at the top of Boeing is a long awaited Max purge has begun, Muilenburg is no longer board chairman but has been relegated to CEO. Boeing must reinvent itself as a renaissance kind of corporation and build something flawless and immune from the critics looking for dust balls floating about Boeing fortunes.
Dennis Muilenburg looks ahead
Chairman to CEO is a preliminary round to spending more time with "your family" rather than "spending more money in time". Boeing has finally cried "UNCLE"! The time has come to start the journey down the beanstalk picking off golden parachutes hanging like low hanging fruit off its limbs. Boeing is making a turn away from headwinds and now will run with the aviation surge if one can be found.
Boeing must have one keystone aircraft to build a new perception about its ability to provide an aircraft everyone desires. Two crashes of the Max has brought Boeing in a face to face confrontation with its maker. Its customer and not the stockholder. Boeing is to big to succeed! It must reach for its trim control and now fly its aircraft like a seasoned pilot before it too crashes.
Thursday, October 10, 2019
Boeing Blinks: Reengine Recycle 767
The US military chose the 767 for it tanker model going against the A330 so there was something in the sauce Boeing provided the US Military tanker program that goes beyond the A330 than just money and convenience the A330 couldn't offer.
The 767 is a good airframe. Now it is considering rengining the 767 with GenX type engines leaving PW behind to sort out what happens next. The PW engine is listed Two Pratt & Whitney PW 4062 with 62,000 lbs. However, GE has been developing its own class of engine for the 777X and 747 8 projects thus pumping billions into R&D into its behemoths for sometime far outpacing PW expenditures on similar class jet engine like the PW4062.
Now come the 797 proposition from scratch white paper. It's too expensive and late to compete with the A321 class of extended range gap filler. Boeing sees something out of the Airbus playbook that has quickly made it more powerful than Boeing's marketing effort. The NEO is working in the market as we speak. Boeing may divert using the 767 frame and attaching GE engine technology to its frame. It would use the 767-400 configuration and perhaps call it the 767-8i and 8F. It would be bigger than the 797 and fly further but could fit into continental market places well when flying to LA to NY as an example. Boeing needs to make it efficient for 1,000 - 5000 mile range and it will compete with the A330 and buy time for the 797 concept to evolve monetarily.
What must Boeing do:
The 767 is a good airframe. Now it is considering rengining the 767 with GenX type engines leaving PW behind to sort out what happens next. The PW engine is listed Two Pratt & Whitney PW 4062 with 62,000 lbs. However, GE has been developing its own class of engine for the 777X and 747 8 projects thus pumping billions into R&D into its behemoths for sometime far outpacing PW expenditures on similar class jet engine like the PW4062.
Now come the 797 proposition from scratch white paper. It's too expensive and late to compete with the A321 class of extended range gap filler. Boeing sees something out of the Airbus playbook that has quickly made it more powerful than Boeing's marketing effort. The NEO is working in the market as we speak. Boeing may divert using the 767 frame and attaching GE engine technology to its frame. It would use the 767-400 configuration and perhaps call it the 767-8i and 8F. It would be bigger than the 797 and fly further but could fit into continental market places well when flying to LA to NY as an example. Boeing needs to make it efficient for 1,000 - 5000 mile range and it will compete with the A330 and buy time for the 797 concept to evolve monetarily.
What must Boeing do:
- Improve 767 build technology. Done that! 767, (KC-46 program)
- New GEX engine. Done that! (GE can provide a scalable engine from its GEX program
- Have a short development cycle for minimal costs. Set up for that!
- New 767 wings. Done That! (It has a new wing plant in Everett, Washington awaiting more work in its space and a 767 wing could be slotted in in a short amount of time. It already has wing designs ready to go based from its 787 and 777X programs.)
- Plane Size: Done that!
- Passenger amenities. Done that! (from all its family of programs and supporting suppliers eager for expanded business.)
- Commonality. You complete me theme from its family of aircraft.
- Customers. A Works in progress! It is the tipping point for making this business case. Does Boeing have a strong and risk-averse business case for its customers? Can Boeing make 1,000 orders from the NEO 767 idea? That all remains to be seen.
Job one. (Win customer trust back and kill the Boeing Golden Parachute mentality.)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)