What's More Deadly, The F-35 supply Chain or the S-400

Much has been made of Turkey's acquisition of the Russian S-400 missile battery purchased by Nato's Turkey. "It's an invasion on Nato", the US proclaims. Since the Russians will be there to install the S-400 missile they will become privy to F-35 secrets as Turkey not only supports parts and engineering to the vast US/Lockheed program and it would be flying up to 100 of its type within its own Airforce. The Russians are licking its chops to get its hands on just one F-35 to defeat the F-35 purpose.

The US has drawn a line in the sand. Either buy the F-35 or the S-400 but not both. It's not about the F-35's ability or the S-400's internals but its about access to the respective programs. Russia wants to know how sensor fusion really works and the Americans already know how the S-400 missile really works. The US has more to lose in this boxing match and it doesn't want a fight that is unessescary. The F-35 is too valuable to the US compared with the Russian S-400 system. It is a belief that Russia is more brag than fact concerning its own military-industrial complex. The S-400 is already defeated using the Pentagon mentality.

Turkey is now playing the SU-57 card saying it will buy the Russian premiere jet if the US F-35 deal falls through. The US is shrugging at Turkey indicating "and your point is"! Turkey is sliding down a perilous path trying to leverage NATO/US aspirations with a good SU-57 deal. It already holds the US by the throat by making F-35 parts and supplying F-35 technology supporting the Lockheed program. That in its self is leverage or so it seems. The US is already porting the Turkish contribution over to the US controlled F-35 sub-partners. The US only needs time to cut Turkey out of the F-35 equation completely. Russia can't even field a fighter wing of SU-57's for its own needs, so how will it replace the 100 F-35's ordered by Turkey? So how will Russia field 100 SU-57's to Turkey with dumbed down features and supply high end features only reserved for the mother country, Russia?

It should be called a Turkish bluff. But the US is yawning at the bluff as it prepares to lose Turkey from NATO. It is sending the signal, " Go ahead Turkey, become Russia's problem child, we have a better plan "B" than the current plan "A" with you in the mix." Yes, its a US military set back only with time as the main victim. The US is making up time by keeping Turkey busy with negotiation and peripheral issue issues. The Patriot missile dropped by Turkey is a card played, as it already was going play the S-400 card next. The SU-57 card Turkey will play is countered by secrets the US holds. Remember, Turkey is not an adversary, but a spoiled member of NATO.  It's just that Turkey will have to go it alone in any regional conflagration. Turkey claims it needs self-defense options and is playing hardball pitting Russia against the US. Isreal doesn't care nor does the US if Turkey has to use Russian equipment securing its own region. "Just don't come knocking if you exceed a no-fly zone outside of Turkey."

No fly means no missiles or jets crossing airspace outside of its own national borders. That is the trump card the US holds during card play with Turkey. The US doesn't care if Turkey is in Nato or if the F-35 program is intertwined with Turkey because it has already begun plan "B". The US is already six months down the road from being strangled by Turkey's neck hold over the Patriot missile and F-35  deals it didn't or did make respectively. If you think there wasn't written in the F-35 deal paperwork forbidding Turkey from interacting found on the US adversary list, then you are greatly mistaken. The US, in order to have Turkey to make F-35 parts and supply engineering, was only given if they bought 100 F-35's as a partner. Buying Russian military equipment was a violation of the deal.

Now that Turkey is this far into the deal, it feels it has the US over a barrel. The US think tank has already broach that "what if" question whether Turkey would bolt after firmly entrenched into the F-35 program. "Bolting" is leverage to get a better position against the US. This is also true with all US partners in the F-35 program. 

Canada is one nation in mind as it plays with the US at "arms" length. The US doesn't have friends, it only has opportunist in the world market place. Turkey is playing badly and the US has already closed the book on Turkey. It has sent the message out to Turkey, 

"please buy those Su-57's from Russia or something else like the Su-35 and don't fly them outside of Turkey or they will be shot down because you violated the good faith deal we had with each other over those S-400 missiles as you spit in our face." 

The US F-35 supply chain won't stop, even without Turkey involved. The S-400 missile won't fly over US allies heads because the patriot missile will be in place at a platform in the Mediterranian. Isreal, Greece, and Iraq have skin in the game. The US is partnered with those countries making the S-400 purchase a direct reference to those nations which has its backs towards the US. Turkish resolve for Russia's military complex is a loss of the greatest proportion. It has traded for the S-400 and Russian military equipment at a bargain price leaving it
undefended from itself. Turkey has at its back Russia and its loosely knit family of "friends" not to forget Syria. The F-35 supply chain is more deadly than the S-400 missile.

MCAS And The Max

A "what-if story" about why?

The two 737 Max 8 each crashed with similar or if not exact circumstances when the two Boeing aircraft plunged to its demise with all aboard dying. Boeing, the maker, appeared to have installed a trap on the aircraft called an MCAS system, not unlike a remote control for your That would automatically turn channels once the up arrow was clicked. However, no one would know what to do if the sensor failed at the end of the control. The remote would not function the TV. The viewer only had about a minute to manually turn on the TV if arising from the chair and going over and turning the TV back on before it permanently crashes into the carpet killing all the channels available once and for all. Viewers never had to manually change from the side buttons of the set. In fact, a relic of an old wheel only the repairmen can operate, if a TV repairman even exists today. The viewer might try by turning channels manually. All the viewers in the room were born with a remote in its hands, No one knew about TV functions with buttons and wheel actions. The remote is how TV functions!

Boeing only engineered the MCAS system to work in a stall and it never figured what if MCAS remote sensor doesn't work or the batteries went dead so it would fail. The viewers in the room got rid of their rabbit ears decades ago and didn't know what to do. MCAS sensor failure occurred and there was no manual telling a viewer what to do in case of an emergency. In fact, the showroom guy in electronics from where the TV was purchased was quoted as saying, "look in the kitchen drawer or end table for an electronics manual". The viewer in the last seconds of TV operation went to that "kitchen" drawer and saw not only one manual but dozens. The manual sitting in the drawer on top was for a Sony watch copyrighted 1992. There was no recent addition for the Max 8 TV stand or even for the battery installation for the MCAS. The viewer had only seconds to act so they went back to the living room and turned the TV back as all sensible TV junkies would do. After all, they are not TV engineers just operators of the TV guide and the recorder. The MCAS means Must Consult A System. 

What system? which doesn't work after it loses its remote sensor having no batteries. The viewer reflects on the last guidance given in viewer's class. "We are all going to die." The FAA is still looking in that stuffed kitchen full of antiquated electronic and kitchen appliances manuals for a solution. It is seeking an answer during the next year and studying what viewers who only had seconds for correct action preventing a massive TV crash for which they were never trained for in the first place. No one at Boeing never considered the obvious, what if the MCAS system fails?

Boeing Needs The 797 Now More Than Ever

President Trump offers the idea to rebadge the 737 Max in light of its recent failures killing 346 passengers. Boeing is searching for a way to bring the 797 ideas to fruition before the two accidents occurred, having failed its engineering point installed on the newly done over 737 Max. Trump is on to something. Boeing is planning a 737 remake by the 2030s.  Boeing may be stalling for time to launch a new line-up of aircraft after the 777X takes-off. The 787 is doing nicely at this time. Winging It has come to a conclusion over Trump's statement of rebadging the single-aisle 737. 

Build a clean sheet single-aisle super modern frame with engine acceptance having the most efficient configuration, Call it the Freeliner. It will set you free. Make it a Max 8 carrying capacity, and then a Free Liner 10 holds 205 seats.

Build the much anticipated 797 called a "B-Liner" holding between 220 to 270 seats with dual aisle sensibility with a 5, 000 plus range. Having a Freeliner and B-liner in your stable will complete a Boeing family of aircraft. 

The Max 8 accidents have pushed Boeing aviation to the next level. The tragic accidents with its Max must be a lesson learned for all people who travel by air. Corporate objectives must take a back seat to customer safety. Boeing must stop economizing development for corporate bottom lines. It must build successfully safe airplanes first and always and nothing short of safe. If it can't do that and stay profitable, then it should get out of the business or shrink it back behind its safe line of experience in building airplanes. Boeing must retrench its corporate model to a safe spot and follow a Trump quip of renaming the Max, is just a glimpse of what may come sooner rather than later. A Boeing remake from scratch of its product line marks having a new sense of direction. The time is now to make the difference as it so has pursued in the last generation of aircraft making. Bring on a Freeliner and a B-Liner and set travelers free and in a straight line. 

You Don't Hear Stuff, Just Apologies: A Boeing Condition

Since the Max 8 fell from the sky, Boeing stopped making airplanes so it seemed. Very little coming from Boeing about its 777X gets a mention. Even its roll-out was attended only by Boeing employees well after its own and long mentioned 777X coming out party. Boeing went quiet on that big bird. 

Now that this is observed, it is safe to say a lot of things are happening at Boeing. Apologies and MCAS are the headlines, but in reality, the activity of the 777X is a monstrous project which hasn't skipped a beat. It is being fitted out just the same for first flight and that will be soon. It may occur without fanfare or public Network TV at the forefront of reporting. It will occur at Everett, Wa though, hopefully in daylight. 

Boeing has gone underground since the 737 Max crashes and only reports what will help its aviation cause. The 777X program has become a very skittish affair. The new Boeing norm is if it's successful, let's report that success after its success. 

No longer are live shots of high-risk factory door openings or inside the airplane view of banks of equipment bolted in place before first flight. Its own website shows aging content of the 777X from last year which has been watched over and over again without nary a new photo of what's up with the 777X. 

The 777X might fly silently into the sky and land successfully with a full report following the accomplishment. Gone are the bolden days of first flight unless it knows something that will startle the world back to everything is okay once more. The Max accidents have been a major setback to Boeing other than just bad news. It has changed how Boeing faces the world from top to bottom. The signal of change happened at the 777X first rollout, a private party. By the end of April, the 777X will fly but no mention of this event is coming from Boeing as it prepares this aircraft, it can't risk failure of the first flight.

One might say everything is riding on its success to gain back world confidence in the airplane maker. It could happen to the other guy but they are watching closely as to not make the same mistakes that Boeing made. Being overconfident is in its own decision making. Pushing through assumptions not fully vetted because it would cost profitability for a program. 

Now Boeing is spending money and resources on an airplane, the 777X, with only about 350 booked orders. Since, if successful, there will be thousands of orders going forward plus the prestige of being a fantastic airplane maker. It's not that to tragic crashes happened on its single-aisle offering but it's in a time when crashes have been eliminated for the most extent. Two crashes and multiple occurrences of the same type of problem has exposed Boeing's thinking on what is an expense and what is a safety margin. The pursuit of a profit margin has been exposed in Boeing's leadership. 

Therefore, go underground with anything until it is done right then report. It is only a survival instinct for any creature in harm's way. The first 777X flight will be held close to Boeing's vest.

The F-35 Self Destruct Switch

The US is worried China or Russia may land its hands on an F-35, since Japan just lost one, albeit, at the bottom of the Ocean. Last night an F-35 disappeared and the hunt is on to find it! All those billions are at risk. How about installing a dead man's switch and det cord throughout its body to scatter its pieces throughout land, sea or air? A simple co-action between ejector chair and airframe would put to ease an unsurvivable airframe windfall for adversaries looking for pieces no bigger than a postage stamp at the bottom of some sea. If a heart stops longer than five seconds then boom. If the ejector seat is engaged then five seconds later boom. It's a no-fly zone and a no recovery issue. The F-35 is in pieces on land or in the sea. If you have a heartbeat no problem for the pilot. If it comes down on the wrong side of the line or just comes down, then Boom! Please eject before coming down in order to survive. An F-35 falling into the wrong hands is not worth the salvage or recovery but the pilot is always worth the recovery no matter what. Install a dead man's destruction switch after the pilot ceases in the F-35. Safeguards could be installed in order to protect those around the aircraft during secure positioning. Other words the det cord would not be engaged to explode unless several conditions exist at during the F-35's existence. Parked, serviced, or in operation, it could not explode ever unless certain conditions are met. The ejection seat is exploded out as intended, impact or water condition enveloping the airframe is detected, then boom! Ejection or death is needed (required) in order to save "life" from the boom when going off the grid! 

If the pilot has stopped ceasing in the cockpit then Boom! Sorry China, Russia et al. You get F-35 pieces to play with. Anyways, secrets are part of our national defense.

The Boeing Recovery?

After the 2nd 737 fell from grace killing another 150 of its passenger Boeing has a track record of pausing, then reflecting on its complicit participation, and then moving aggressively as it loses ground with the calamity.

The FAA is seeking tall grass on this matter as it biffed its responsibility by allowing Boeing to watch its own hen coop in the front yard of aviation.

The truth of the matter will follow a long investigation but it now appears the thing Boeing installed to outsmart flawed human pilots has now exposed a flaw in human thinking of automating everything it doesn't think pilots can do. The system itself failed and pilots fly at a disadvantaged. Pilots have little recourse to fly out of harm's way when a sensor fails and software regurgitates what humans who never piloted an aircraft code a solution. The MCAS system or anti-stall routine doesn't take into account false equipment readings as it only looks to override hapless aviation pilots for a condition that were not trained for. A what-if scenario,  may not involve tailwinds driving an aircraft over its intended airspeed thus starting a cascading chain of events putting the 737 into a nose dive for preventing stalls. Then there is a what-if when a sensor fails because equipment sometimes are flawed but the operator is not aware of a broken part. Boeing really needs to address this critical issue.

It has over 100 years of experience building airplanes but it still failed to secure the possibility of unintended consequences. Now it will cost them billions when considering losing further ground in the single-aisle market place. However, Boeing will roar again and it has now begun its final stage since the second disaster for its Max program. Let us not lose sight of every airplane manufacturer has its problems. Boeing is human too. So being aggressive is a fear reflex. Stockholders are scared too. The will reflex as well so Boeing will ramp up its Max efforts towards the single-aisle. When the wind is knocked out of you get back up swinging.  Boeing just got "busted". It will play all its cards on the single-aisle market. Expect a new single-aisle offering sooner rather than later. The 797 programs may come into play as it may meld with the single-aisle linking the duo aisle but the second crash has awakened the Boeing beast in the scheme of things.

Automation is only good as its weakest link is the lessoned learned.

Okay, So The F-35 has Numbers By 2020

Below is a build progression of the F-35. Of course, numbered are partner sales and foreign delivery beyond what the US Takes from Lockheed's F-35 production lines.

The year 2019 projects 130+ F-35 units to be delivered to all its customers by the end of this year.
The United States will receive a bulk of 2019 deliveries reported below.
 

2019                        130 F-35's completed

About 60's F-35 have reached foreign military operations where 2019 will see a boost in delivered F-35 to other countries around the world. 

Having 358 F-35 delivered through 2018 suggests about 297 F-35's are with the US for testing and for the operational force. 

The summary for the F-35 looks impressive as the US military tries to achieve having over 1,700 of the F-35's A, B, and C in its military inventory. If the pacing remains the same for delivering around 150 F-35's every cycle. Expect a 20% to 80% for a foreign to US delivery split over the next years.

Charting out a rate of 160 units a year will give it a ten-year build cycle to reach over 2,000 F-35 units.

The remaining world's military production pace falls behind the Lockheed pace. The Russian model 57 and Chinese models 21, 31, or even its 10 will be a paltry number made compared with the F-35 production fleet. China makes up a lot of ground with its missile innovations.

Sunstroke Project Just Plain Fun

Okay SNL its time to feature Sunstroke Project. Good music good times from Moldova.

My favorite group and I'm old.

What Lays Beneath, The KC-46

The KC-46 is soon to replace the 50-year-old plus KC-135. It's an older 767 looking technology so what's the big deal about another Kerosene and Cargo tanker? New approach lights?

• F-35 like electronics
• Flexible Mission conversions
• Clandestinely Force Multiplication
• Secret Sauces the KC-135 couldn't even imagine
• Battlespace roll playing

These are few items just to mention and not all the subliminal attributes found within the flying gas station. Just think of the KC-46 more than just a highway stop on a back road. It's really a combat player where others only can dream of a fill-up and "go" kind of appendage.

The real reason it took so long to come to operational competency was was its complexity not unlike the F-35 program.  It fuels even flying motorcycles if asked! Its electronics goes from defensive data to offensive management for others to feed off of during a battle. Not to overrate the KC-46, fifty years of warfighting knowledge has been installed into the KC-46 since the 1960's era KC-135. It will take 2-3 years for the military to really get its arms around this beast. The boom operator sits comfortably up front watching a monitor hooked to high tech cameras for refueling connections instead of lying on the air warrior's belly manipulating the fuel nozzle into a flying receptacle under all conditions. That advancement alone makes you want to enlist into the US Air Force refueling mission.

The battlefield continues to change like in a video game when extra situations arise. The mission capability of the KC-46 is a broad stroke of the battlefield paint brush.

Day 1 of Battle:

• Refuel and Land at home base
• Change to medical evac and then pick-up wounded and comeback
• Change to Cargo and drop its load
• Load fighters and drop them into combat
• Detect adversaries and pass information through data links
• Jam incoming weapons
• Operate as an aviation command center when needed

Now you see the value of the KC-46, it's a big player

Secretly it allows all of the airwing to extend its missions simultaneously. It could refuel the F-15 and F-35 at the same time and send some helicopters in for Jet A. Could the KC-135 do that in one pass? No!

There are other things under its skin we can't even imagine and that is why developmental problems keep arising. It isn't just the boom operator station problem needing attention. It goes deeper but the press demands a story and the boom operator screen issues are as good as any while Boeing sorts out its secret sauce.

A tanker or KC-46, in this case, plays a vital roll in the battle space and has become a tool for combat success, not just a flying gas station, but a one-stop shop that continually changes when the battle rages on.

Shanahan Lacks Professional Political Smarts

An "x" Boeing Exec has not learned life's lessons before becoming this nation's "Acting Secretary of Defense" leader. Here is a Military Times Shanahan quote:


Military times Quote:

"Previous news reports indicated that Shanahan has disparaged Lockheed Martin’s fighter, the F-35, and other Lockheed weapons systems in private Pentagon meetings. In January Politico reported that Shanahan called the F-35 “f---ed up” and reportedly said Lockheed “doesn’t know how to run a program.”"

All of this above may be true but an idiot wouldn't go public with these statements to make a point. Now Shanahan is under investigation having a Boeing bias with this type of public banter gainst Lockheed as Acting Secretary of Defense. 

The Shanahan rules of engagement should follow these principles in his new position. Boeing's hallways trained you poorly for this position and verbal rancor is unacceptable. Follow these points and live a little longer as Acting Secretary of defense.

There are many more bullet points not mentioned but these are your basic top seven Shanahan points to follow in politics. Trump is not the role model to aspire to, he is the President!

• Vet your mouth with other professionals before speaking anything.
• Don't disparage publically/privately what you "FEEL".
• Go back to fifth grade and learn how to be smoothly powerful.
• Your five minutes of fame is over!!
• Trust no one!.
• Speaking to a room full of people is a death trap.
• Because of Boeing, you have a new set of rules.

Instead, speak of, the F-35, as a troubled program in many areas, let's address those troubles. The KC-46 program has troubles as well so let's discuss this at a special meeting. and... so forth.

"Truth To Power" is the gold standard when confronting opposing views and cannot be argued against you as a leader.